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2020 United States Senate special election in Arizona

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See also: 2020 United States Senate elections

2020 United States Senate special election in Arizona
← 2016 November 3, 2020 2022 →
 
Nominee Mark Kelly Martha McSally
Party Democratic Republican
Popular vote 1,716,467 1,637,661
Percentage 51.16% 48.81%
Kelly:      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%      >90%
McSally:      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80-90%      >90%
Tie:      50%      No data
U.S. senator before election

Martha McSally[a]
Republican

Elected U.S. Senator

Mark Kelly
Democratic

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The 2020 United States Senate special election in Arizona was held on November 3, 2020, following the death in office of incumbent Republican U.S. Senator John McCain on August 25, 2018. Governor Doug Ducey was required by Arizona law to appoint a Republican to fill the vacant seat until a special election winner could be sworn in.[1][2] On September 5, 2018, Ducey appointed former U.S. Senator Jon Kyl to fill McCain's seat. However, Kyl announced he would resign on December 31, 2018.[3]

On December 18, 2018, Ducey announced that outgoing U.S. Representative Martha McSally would be appointed to fill the seat following Kyl's resignation.[4] McSally was sworn in as the state's junior U.S. Senator on January 3, 2019, less than two months after she was defeated by Democrat Kyrsten Sinema for Arizona's Class 1 U.S. Senate seat.[5] McSally ran to complete the term, defeating skincare executive Daniel McCarthy in the Republican primary. She faced former astronaut Mark Kelly,[6] who ran uncontested in the Democratic primary. Primary elections took place on August 4, 2020.[7]

Once a reliably Republican state, Arizona trended more purple in the late 2010s. Kelly significantly outraised McSally and led by about 5% in the average poll leading up to Election Day.

Kelly defeated McSally by a margin of 2.4% on election night, thereby flipping the seat Democratic. As a result, he outperformed Joe Biden in the concurrent presidential election, who defeated President Donald Trump by a margin of 0.3% in the state, but underperformed his polling average. Kelly became the first Democrat to win the Class 3 Senate seat since Carl Hayden won his last term in 1962.[8] This also marked the first time since the 82nd Congress preceding the 1952 election that Democrats held both Senate seats in Arizona.

Kelly was sworn in on December 2, 2020.

Interim appointments

[edit]

Appointees

[edit]

Potential candidates not appointed

[edit]

Republican primary

[edit]

Incumbent McSally faced one challenger: Daniel McCarthy, a skincare company executive. McCarthy's independent wealth was expected to set up a bruising and expensive primary campaign; however, McSally won the primary in a landslide.[16]

Candidates

[edit]

Nominee

[edit]

Eliminated in primary

[edit]
  • Sean Lyons (as a write-in candidate)[19]
  • Daniel McCarthy, skincare company executive[20]

Withdrawn

[edit]

Declined

[edit]

Endorsements

[edit]
Martha McSally

U.S. presidents

State officials

Individuals

Organizations

Primary results

[edit]
Results by county:
  McSally—80–90%
  McSally—70–80%
  McSally—60–70%
Republican primary results[48]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Martha McSally (incumbent) 551,119 75.2%
Republican Daniel McCarthy 181,551 24.8%
Republican Sean Lyons (write-in) 210 nil
Total votes 732,880 100.0%

Democratic primary

[edit]

Candidates

[edit]

Nominee

[edit]

Eliminated in primary

[edit]
  • Bo "Heir Archy" Garcia (as a write-in candidate)[19]

Withdrew

[edit]

Declined

[edit]

Endorsements

[edit]
Mark Kelly (D)

U.S. presidents

U.S. senators

U.S. representatives

Organizations

Primary results

[edit]
Democratic primary results[48]
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Mark Kelly 665,620 99.9%
Democratic Bo Garcia (write-in) 451 0.1%
Total votes 666,071 100.0%

Libertarian primary

[edit]

Neither one of the write-in candidates received enough votes to secure the Libertarian nomination in the general election.

Write-in candidates

[edit]

Eliminated in primary

[edit]

Primary results

[edit]
Libertarian primary results[48]
Party Candidate Votes %
Libertarian Barry Hess (write-in) 329 76.5%
Libertarian Alan White (write-in) 101 23.5%
Total votes 430 100.0%

Other candidates

[edit]

General election write-in candidates

[edit]

Declared

[edit]

Republican

Democratic

Other

  • Christopher Beckett, veteran (Independent)[81]
  • William "Will" Decker (Independent)[81]
  • Matthew "Doc" Dorchester (Libertarian)[81]
  • Nicholas N. Glenn, Navy veteran and aerospace engineer (Independent Republican)[81]
  • Mathew Haupt (Independent)[81]
  • Benjamin Rodriguez (Independent)[81]
  • Joshua Rodriguez (Unity)[81]
  • Frank Saenz (Independent)[81]
  • Jim Stevens (Independent)[81]

Withdrawn

[edit]

General election

[edit]

Debates

[edit]

Predictions

[edit]
Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[84] Lean D (flip) October 29, 2020
Inside Elections[85] Tilt D (flip) October 28, 2020
Sabato's Crystal Ball[86] Lean D (flip) November 2, 2020
Daily Kos[87] Lean D (flip) October 30, 2020
Politico[88] Lean D (flip) November 2, 2020
RCP[89] Tossup October 23, 2020
DDHQ[90] Likely D (flip) November 3, 2020
538[91] Likely D (flip) November 2, 2020
Economist[92] Lean D (flip) November 2, 2020

Endorsements

[edit]
Martha McSally (R)

Federal officials

State officials

Organizations

Newspapers

Individuals

Mark Kelly (D)

Federal officials

Organizations

Unions

Newspapers

Individuals

Polling

[edit]

Graphical summary

[edit]

Aggregate polls

[edit]
Mark Kelly vs. Martha McSally
Source of poll aggregation Dates administered Dates updated Mark Kelly Martha McSally Margin
270 to Win[108] November 2, 2020 November 3, 2020 49.8% 44.8% Kelly +5.0
Real Clear Politics[109] November 1, 2020 November 3, 2020 50.5% 44.8% Kelly +5.7
Average 50.2% 44.8% Kelly +5.4
Polling
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[b] 		Margin
of error 		Martha
McSally (R) 		Mark
Kelly (D) 		Other /
Undecided
Ipsos/Reuters[110] October 27 – November 2, 2020 610 (LV) ± 4.5% 44% 53% 4%[c]
Change Research/CNBC[111] October 29 – November 1, 2020 409 (LV) ± 4.9% 47% 51% 2%[d]
NBC News/Marist[112] October 29 – November 1, 2020 717 (LV) ± 4.5% 46% 52% 2%[e]
Swayable[113] October 27 – November 1, 2020 333 (LV) ± 7.2% 45% 55% –
Data for Progress[114] October 27 – November 1, 2020 1,195 (LV) ± 2.8% 46% 54% 0%[f]
Emerson College[115] October 29–31, 2020 732 (LV) ± 3.6% 48% 50% 2%[g]
Morning Consult[116] October 22–31, 2020 1,059 (LV) ± 3% 44% 48% –
Data Orbital[117] October 28–30, 2020 550 (LV) ± 4.2% 46% 47% 7%[h]
Siena College/NYT Upshot[118] October 26–30, 2020 1,253 (LV) ± 3% 43% 50% 6%[i]
Grand Canyon Battleground Poll[119] October 25–30, 2020 910 (LV) ± 3.1% 43% 46% 11%[j]
CNN/SSRS[120] October 23–30, 2020 892 (LV) ± 4.0% 45% 51% 5%[k]
Pulse Opinion Research/Rasmussen Reports[121] October 27–29, 2020 800 (LV) ± 3.5% 43% 48% 9%[l]
Gravis Marketing[122] October 26–28, 2020 704 (LV) ± 3.7% 45% 50% 6%[m]
Ipsos/Reutuers[123] October 21–27, 2020 714 (LV) ± 4.2% 44% 51% 5%[n]
Swayable[124] October 23–26, 2020 286 (LV) ± 7.4% 44% 56% –
Justice Collaborative Project (D)[125][A] October 22–25, 2020 874 (LV) ± 3.1% 40% 50% 10%[o]
OH Predictive Insights[126] October 22–25, 2020 716 (LV) ± 3.7% 45% 50% 4%[p]
Univision/University of Houston/Latino Decisions/Latino
Decisions/North Star Opinion Research[127] 		October 17–25, 2020 725 (RV) ± 3.6% 39% 51% 10%[q]
Patinkin Research Strategies (D)[128] October 21–24, 2020 729 (LV) ± 3.6% 46% 53% 2%[r]
Y2 Analytics[129] October 15–24, 2020 700 (LV) ± 3.7% 47% 51% –
Susquehanna Polling & Research Inc. (R)[130][B] October 19–22, 2020 500 (LV) ± 4.4% 50% 47% 4%[s]
Ipsos/Reuters[131] October 14–21, 2020 658 (LV) ± 4.4% 43% 51% 5%[t]
Morning Consult[116] October 11–20, 2020 1,066 (LV) ± 3% 44% 48% –
Pulse Opinion Research/Rasmussen Reports[132] October 18–19, 2020 800 (LV) ± 3.5% 44% 46% 10%[u]
Change Research/CNBC[133] October 16–19, 2020 232 (LV)[v] – 43% 54% –
RMG Research[134] October 14–19, 2020 800 (LV) ± 3.5% 39%[w] 49% 15%[x]
37%[y] 49% 15%[x]
40%[z] 44% 15%[x]
Data Orbital[135] October 16–18, 2020 550 (LV) ± 4.2% 42% 48% 10%[aa]
YouGov/CBS[136] October 13–16, 2020 1,074 (LV) ± 4.1% 41% 52% 7%[ab]
Ipsos/Reuters[137] October 7–14, 2020 667 (LV) ± 4.3% 41% 52% 8%[ac]
Monmouth University[138] October 9–13, 2020 502 (RV) ± 4.4% 42% 52% 5%[ad]
502 (LV)[ae] 42% 52% –
502 (LV)[af] 45% 51% –
Morning Consult[116] October 2–11, 2020 1,144 (LV) ± 2.9% 41% 49% –
Trafalgar Group[139] October 6–9, 2020 1,045 (LV) ± 3.0% 45% 47% 7%[ag]
OH Predictive Insights[140] October 4–8, 2020 608 (LV) ± 4.0% 45% 50% 6%[ah]
Ipsos/Reuters[141] September 29 – October 7, 2020 663 (LV) ± 4.3% 41% 51% 8%[ai]
Latino Decisions (D)[142][C] September 28 – October 6, 2020 600 (LV) ± 4% 42% 47% 7%[aj]
Basswood Research (R)[143][D] October 3–5, 2020 800 (LV) ± 3.5% 49% 47% 4%[ak]
Data Orbital[144] October 3–5, 2020 550 (LV) ± 4.2% 44% 49% 7%[al]
HighGround Inc.[145] [1] September 28 – October 5, 2020 400 (LV) ± 4.9% 44% 50% 7%[am]
Change Research/CNBC[146] October 2–4, 2020 296 (LV) – 43% 51% 6%[an]
Siena College/NYT Upshot[147] October 1–3, 2020 655 (LV) ± 4.2% 39% 50% 11%[ao]
Patinkin Research Strategies/Arizona Research Consortium (D)[148] October 1–3, 2020 604 (LV) ± 3.8% 45% 50% 5%[ap]
Targoz Market Research[149] September 23 – October 2, 2020 1,045 (LV) ± nil 41% 51% 8%
Morning Consult[150] September 22 – October 1, 2020 1,048 (LV) ± 3% 38%[aq] 51% 10%[ar]
Suffolk University[151] September 26–30, 2020 500 (LV) ± 4.4% 40% 49% 11%[as]
Susquehanna Polling & Research Inc. (R)[152][B] September 25–28, 2020 500 (LV) ± 4.3% 45% 48% –
Data for Progress (D)[153] September 23–28, 2020 808 (LV) ± 3.4% 42% 51% 7%[aj]
Morning Consult[154] September 19–28, 2020 ~1,000 (LV) ± 3% 36% 53% 10%[at]
Data For Progress[155][E] September 15–22, 2020 481 (LV) ± 4.4% 38% 47% 15%[au]
Change Research/CNBC[156] September 18–20, 2020 262 (LV) – 43% 51% 6%[av]
ABC News/Washington Post[157] September 15–20, 2020 579 (LV) ± 4.5% 48% 49% 3%[aw]
Morning Consult[158] September 11–20, 2020 907 (LV) ± 3%[ax] 40% 49% –
Hart Research Associates (D)[159][F] September 17–19, 2020 400 (LV) ± 4.9% 43% 55% –
Ipsos/Reuters[160] September 11–17, 2020 565 (LV) ± 4.7% 41% 50% 8%[ay]
Morning Consult[161] September 8–17, 2020 900 (LV)[v] ± (2% – 4%) 41%[ax] 48% –
Fabrizio, Lee & Associates (R)[162][G] September 14–16, 2020 800 (LV) ± 3.5% 46% 48% 6%[m]
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[163] September 12–16, 2020 855 (LV) ± 3.4% 35% 53% 13%[az]
Monmouth University[164] September 11–15, 2020 420 (RV) ± 4.8% 44% 50% 5%[ad]
420 (LV)[ae] 46% 50% 4%[ba]
420 (LV)[af] 48% 49% 4%[ba]
Siena College/NYT Upshot[165] September 10–15, 2020 653 (LV) ± 4.1% 42% 50% 8%[bb]
Morning Consult[154] September 5–14, 2020 ~1,000 (LV) ± 3% 38% 50% 13%[bc]
Patinkin Research Strategies/Arizona Research Consortium (D)[148] September 10–13, 2020 679 (LV) ± 3.8% 45% 50% 5%[ap]
Kaiser Family Foundation/Cook Political Report[166] August 29 – September 13, 2020 1,298 (RV) ± 3.0% 36% 44% 20%[bd]
Gravis Marketing[167] September 10–11, 2020 684 (LV) ± 3.8% 43% 48% 9%[be]
YouGov/CBS[168] September 9–11, 2020 1,106 (LV) ± 3.9% 42% 49% 9%[bf]
OH Predictive Insights[169] September 8–10, 2020 600 (LV) ± 4% 42% 52% 6%[bg]
Benenson Strategy Group/GS Strategy Group[170][H] August 28 – September 8, 2020 1,600 (LV) ± 2.5% 45% 48% 7%[bh]
Change Research/CNBC[171] September 4–6, 2020 470 (LV) ± 4.6% 45% 51% 4%[bi]
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[172] August 30 – September 4, 2020 830 (LV) ± 3.4% 38% 53% 8%[bj]
Morning Consult[154] August 26 – September 4, 2020 ~1,000 (LV) ± 3% 39% 50% 11%[bk]
FOX News[173] August 29 – September 1, 2020 772 (LV) ± 3.5% 39% 56% 5%[bl]
853 (RV) ± 3.0% 38% 55% 6%[bm]
Basswood Research (R)[174][D] August 29–31, 2020 800 (LV) ± 3.5% 48% 48% 4%[ak]
Morning Consult[154] August 16–25, 2020 ~1,000 (LV) ± 3% 35% 53% 13%[bc]
Redfield and Wilton Strategies[175] August 16–18, 2020 856 (LV) ± 3.4% 34% 53% 12%[bn]
Morning Consult[154] August 6–15, 2020 ~1,000 (LV) ± 3% 43% 46% 11%[bk]
Emerson College[176] August 8–10, 2020 661 (LV) ± 3.8% 41% 52% 7%[aj]
Change Research/CNBC[177] August 7–9, 2020 428 (LV) ± 4.6% 43% 49% 8%[bo]
Morning Consult[154] July 27 – August 5, 2020 ~1,000 (LV) ± 3% 38% 49% 13%[bp]
OH Predictive Insights[178] August 3–4, 2020 603 (LV) ± 4.0% 43% 48% 9%[bq]
OnMessage Inc. (R)[179][I] August 2–4, 2020 400 (LV) ± 4.9% 48% 48% 4%[ak]
Data for Progress[180] July 24 – August 2, 2020 1,215 (LV) ± 3.2% 40% 50% 10%[br]
Change Research/CNBC[181] July 24–26, 2020 365 (LV) ± 4.8% 45% 47% 8%
Morning Consult[182] July 17–26, 2020 908 (LV) ± 3.0% 36%[aq] 52% 13%
CNN/SSRS[183] July 18–24, 2020 873 (RV) ± 3.8% 43% 50% 7%[bs]
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[184] July 19–23, 2020 858 (LV) ± 3.2% 35% 53% 13%[bt]
Morning Consult[154] July 14–23, 2020 ~1,000 (LV) ± 3% 39% 49% 12%[bu]
Public Policy Polling[185] July 21–22, 2020 816 (V) ± 3.2% 42% 51% 7%[aj]
NBC News/Marist[186] July 14–22, 2020 826 (RV) ± 4.1% 41% 53% 6%[bv]
Spry Strategies (R)[187][J] July 11–16, 2020 700 (LV) ± 3.7% 41% 48% 11%[bw]
Change Research/CNBC[188] July 10–12, 2020 345 (LV) ± 4.6% 45% 52% 3%[bx]
CBS News/YouGov[189] July 7–10, 2020 1,087 (LV) ± 3.8% 42% 46% 12%[by]
OH Predictive Insights[190] July 6–7, 2020 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 43% 52% 6%[bz]
Data Orbital[191] June 27–29, 2020 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 43% 50% 7%[ca]
Gravis Marketing (R)[192][K] June 27, 2020 527 (LV) ± 4.3% 46% 42% 12%[cb]
Change Research/CNBC[193] June 26–28, 2020 311 (LV)[v] ± 5.8% 44% 53% 3%[cc]
Global Strategy Group (D)[194] June 19–24, 2020 800 (LV) ± 3.5% 42% 49% 9%
Change Research (D)[195][L] June 20–23, 2020 946 (LV) ± 3.2% 42% 50% 8%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[196] June 14–17, 2020 865 (LV) ± 3.3% 34% 49% 17%[cd]
NYT Upshot/Siena College[197] June 8–16, 2020 650 (RV) ± 4.3% 38% 47% 16%[ce]
Civiqs/Daily Kos[198] June 13–15, 2020 1,368 (RV) ± 2.9% 42% 51% 7%[cf]
FOX News[199] May 30 – June 2, 2020 1,002 (RV) ± 3.9% 37% 50% 13%[cg]
HighGround Public Affairs[200] May 18–22, 2020 400 (LV) ± 4.9% 41% 51% 8%[ch]
OH Predictive Insights[201] May 9–11, 2020 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 38% 51% 10%[o]
OH Predictive Insights[202] April 7–8, 2020 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 42% 51% 8%[ci]
NBC News/Marist[203] March 10–15, 2020 2,523 (RV) ± 2.7% 45% 48% 7%
Monmouth University[204] March 11–14, 2020 847 (RV) ± 3.4% 44% 50% 6%
Univision/Arizona State University[205] March 6–11, 2020 1,036 (RV) ± 3.0% 36% 48% 16%
OH Predictive Insights[206] March 3–4, 2020 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 42% 49% 9%[bq]
Public Policy Polling[207] March 2–3, 2020 666 (V) ± 3.8% 42% 47% 12%
HighGround Public Affairs[208] February 7–9, 2020 400 (LV) ± 4.9% 39% 46% 15%
Fabrizio, Lee & Associates (R)[209][G] January 22–24, 2020 1,000 (LV) ± 3.1% 47% 45% 8%
Public Policy Polling[210] January 2–4, 2020 760 (V) ± 3.6% 42% 46% 12%
OH Predictive Insights[211] December 3–4, 2019 628 (LV) ± 3.9% 44% 47% 9%[cj]
Emerson College[212] October 25–28, 2019 904 (RV) ± 3.2% 45% 46% 9%
Change Research (D)[213] September 27–28, 2019 856 (RV) ± 3.3% 45% 47% 8%
Bendixen & Amandi International[214] September 9–12, 2019 520 (RV) ± 4.3% 42% 42% 16%
OH Predictive Insights[215] August 13–14, 2019 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 41% 46% 13%[ck]
Fabrizio Ward/AARP[216] July 29–31, 2019 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 45% 44% 11%[cl]
OH Predictive Insights[217] May 1–2, 2019 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 45% 44% 11%[cm]
OH Predictive Insights[218] February 12–13, 2019 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 46% 44% 10%[o]
Hypothetical polling

with Daniel McCarthy and Mark Kelly

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[b] 		Margin
of error 		Daniel
McCarthy (R) 		Mark
Kelly (D) 		Other /
Undecided
Change Research[219][L] June 20–23, 2020 946 (LV) ± 3.2% 44% 50% 6%

with Ruben Gallego

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[b] 		Margin
of error 		Martha
McSally (R) 		Ruben
Gallego (D) 		Other /
Undecided
OH Predictive Insights[218] February 12–13, 2019 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 49% 41% 10%[o]

on whether McSally deserves to be re-elected

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[b] 		Margin
of error 		Yes No Other /
Undecided
Fabrizio Ward/AARP[216] July 29–31, 2019 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 39% 45% 16%[cn]
Public Policy Polling[220] [2] January 24–25, 2019 682 (V) – 40% 54% 6%

with generic Republican and generic Democrat

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[b] 		Margin
of error 		Generic
Republican 		Generic
Democrat 		Other /
Undecided
OH Predictive Insights[140] October 4–8, 2020 608 (LV) ± 4.0% 45% 45% 10%[co]
Targoz Market Research/PollSmart[221] September 23 – October 2, 2020 1,045 (LV) ± 3.0% 44% 42% 14%[cp]
Data For Progress[155][M] September 15–22, 2020 481 (LV) ± 4.4% 45% 42% 15%[au]
Siena College/NYT Upshot[165] September 10–15, 2020 653 (LV) ± 4.1% 44% 50% 6%[cq]
Emerson College[176] August 8–10, 2020 661 (LV) ± 3.8% 41% 46% 13%[cr]
OnMessage Inc. (R)[179][I] August 2–4, 2020 400 (LV) ± 4.9% 43% 43% 14%[cs]
Climate Nexus[222] Feb 11–15, 2020 539 (RV) ± 4.3% 44% 44% 12%[ct]
Fabrizio, Lee & Associates (R)[209][G] Jan 22–24, 2020 1,000 (LV) ± 3.1% 49% 45% 6%[cu]
OH Predictive Insights[211] December 3–4, 2019 628 (LV) ± 3.9% 44% 44% 11%[cv]
Fabrizio Ward/AARP[216] July 29–31, 2019 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 42% 43% 14%[cw]
OH Predictive Insights[223] February 12–13, 2019 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 44% 39% 17%[cx]

Results

[edit]
2020 United States Senate Special election in Arizona[224]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Democratic Mark Kelly 1,716,467 51.16% +10.41%
Republican Martha McSally (incumbent) 1,637,661 48.81% −4.90%
Write-in 1,169 0.03% -0.03%
Total votes 3,355,297 100.0%
Democratic gain from Republican

By county

[edit]
By county
County Mark Kelly
Democratic 		Martha McSally
Republican 		Write-in Margin Total
votes
# % # % # % # %
Apache 24,050 68.47 11,052 31.47 22 0.06 12,998 37.01 35,124
Cochise 24,843 41.35 35,214 58.61 29 0.05 -10,371 -17.26 60,086
Coconino 45,561 62.54 27,255 37.41 29 0.04 18,306 25.13 72,845
Gila 9,648 35.02 17,889 64.94 11 0.04 -8,241 -29.91 27,548
Graham 4,506 30.42 10,303 69.55 4 0.03 -5,797 -39.13 14,813
Greenlee 1,403 38.65 2,225 61.29 2 0.06 -822 -22.66 3,630
La Paz 2,492 34.00 4,835 65.97 2 0.03 -2,343 -31.97 7,329
Maricopa 1,064,396 51.94 984,203 48.03 698 0.03 80,193 3.91 2,049,297
Mohave 27,414 26.66 75,359 73.29 49 0.05 -47,945 -46.63 102,822
Navajo 24,396 47.49 26,952 52.47 21 0.04 -2,556 -4.98 51,369
Pima 309,142 59.84 207,317 40.13 152 0.03 101,825 19.71 516,611
Pinal 79,114 43.18 104,048 56.78 76 0.04 -24,934 -13.61 183,238
Santa Cruz 13,689 70.65 5,685 29.34 2 0.01 8,004 41.31 19,376
Yavapai 51,852 36.49 90,180 63.47 57 0.04 -38,328 -26.97 142,089
Yuma 33,961 49.13 35,144 50.84 15 0.02 -1,183 -1.71 69,120
Totals 1,716,467 51.16 1,637,661 48.81 1,189 0.03 78,826 2.35 3,355,317

Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic[225]

By congressional district

[edit]

Kelly won 5 of the 9 congressional districts.[226]

District McSally Kelly Representative
1st 48% 52% Tom O'Halleran
2nd 44% 56% Ann Kirkpatrick
3rd 35% 65% Raúl Grijalva
4th 67% 33% Paul Gosar
5th 56% 44% Andy Biggs
6th 52% 48% David Schweikert
7th 24% 76% Ruben Gallego
8th 57% 43% Debbie Lesko
9th 38% 62% Greg Stanton

See also

[edit]

Notes

[edit]
  1. ^ In December 2018, McSally was appointed by Governor Doug Ducey to fill the vacancy caused by the death of Senator John McCain and the resignation of Senator Jon Kyl.
  2. ^ a b c d e Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  3. ^ "Some other candidate" with 3%; would not vote with 0%; "Undecided/Refused" with 1%
  4. ^ "Refused" and Undecided with 1%; Did not vote with 0%
  5. ^ "Other" and Undecided with 1%
  6. ^ "Other candidate or write-in" with 0%
  7. ^ "Someone else" with 2%
  8. ^ "Refused" with 4%; "Other" with 1%; Undecided with 2%
  9. ^ "Someone else" and would not vote with 0%; "Undecided/Refused" with 6%
  10. ^ "Some other" with 3.5%; "Other" with 7.5%; Undecided with 2%
  11. ^ "None of these" and Undecided with 2%; "Other" with 1%
  12. ^ "Some other candidate" with 4%; Undecided with 5%
  13. ^ a b Undecided with 6%
  14. ^ "Some other candidate" with 2%; would not vote with 0%; Undecided with 3%
  15. ^ a b c d Undecided with 10%
  16. ^ "Refused" with 1%; Undecided with 3%
  17. ^ "Someone else" and would not vote with 2%; Undecided with 6%
  18. ^ Undecided with 2%
  19. ^ "Other" and "Refused" with 0%; Undecided with 3%
  20. ^ "Some other candidate" with 3%; would not vote with 0%; "Undecided/Refused" with 2%
  21. ^ "Some other candidate" and Undecided with 5%
  22. ^ a b c Additional data sourced from FiveThirtyEight
  23. ^ Standard VI response
  24. ^ a b c "Some other candidate" with 6%; Undecided with 9%
  25. ^ Results generated with high Democratic turnout model
  26. ^ Results generated with high Republican turnout model
  27. ^ "Refused" with 3%; "Other" with 2%; Undecided with 5%
  28. ^ "Someone else" with 2%; Undecided with 5%
  29. ^ "Some other candidate" and Undecided with 4%; would not vote with 0%
  30. ^ a b "No one" with 1%; "Other" with 0%; Undecided with 4%
  31. ^ a b With a likely voter turnout model featuring higher turnout than in the 2016 presidential election
  32. ^ a b With a likely voter turnout model featuring lower turnout than in the 2016 presidential election
  33. ^ "Other" with 3%; Undecided with 4%
  34. ^ "Refused" with 0%; Undecided with 5%
  35. ^ "Some other candidate" with 4%; would not vote with 0%; "Undecided/Prefer not to answer" with 4%
  36. ^ a b c d Undecided with 7%
  37. ^ a b c Undecided with 4%
  38. ^ "Refused" with 2%; "Other" with 1%; Undecided with 4%
  39. ^ "Some other candidate" with 1%; "Undecided/Refused" with 6%
  40. ^ Would not vote and Undecided with 3%
  41. ^ Would not vote with 1%; "Someone else" with 0%; "Undecided/Refused" with 10%
  42. ^ a b Undecided with 5%
  43. ^ a b Overlapping sample with the previous Morning Consult poll, but more information available regarding sample size
  44. ^ "Someone else" with 4%; Undecided with 6%
  45. ^ "Other" and "Refused" with 2%; Undecided with 7%
  46. ^ "Someone else" and Undecided with 5%
  47. ^ a b Undecided with 15%
  48. ^ Would not vote with 1%; Undecided with 5%
  49. ^ "Neither" with 2%; would not vote with 0%; "other" with no voters; Undecided with 1%
  50. ^ a b Overlapping sample with the previous and subsequent Morning Consult polls, but more information available regarding sample size
  51. ^ "Not sure/prefer not to answer" with 4%; "Some other candidate" with 3%; would not vote with 1%
  52. ^ "Another Third Party/Write-in" with 2%; Undecided with 11%
  53. ^ a b "Other" with 0%; Undecided with 4%
  54. ^ Would not vote with 1%; "Someone else" with 0%; "Undecided/Refused" with 7%
  55. ^ a b "Someone else" with 4%; Undecided with 9%
  56. ^ "Neither/Another Party" with 4%; "Undecided/Don't know/Refused" with 16%
  57. ^ Undecided with 9%
  58. ^ "Someone else" with 3%; Undecided with 6%
  59. ^ "Refused" with 1%; Undecided with 6%
  60. ^ "Someone else" with 0%; Undecided with 7%
  61. ^ Would not vote with 1%; Undecided with 3%
  62. ^ "Another Third Party/Write-in" with 1%; Undecided with 7%
  63. ^ a b "Someone else" with 4%; Undecided with 7%
  64. ^ "Other" and would not vote with 1%; Undecided with 3%
  65. ^ "Other" and would not vote with 1%; Undecided with 4%
  66. ^ "Third party/write-in" with 1%; Undecided with 11%
  67. ^ Would not vote with 2%; Undecided with 6%
  68. ^ "Someone else" with 5%; Undecided with 8%
  69. ^ a b "Refused" with 1%; Undecided with 8%
  70. ^ "No one" with 10%
  71. ^ "None of the above/neither" with 3%; "other" with 0%; Undecided with 4%
  72. ^ "Third party/write-in" with 3%; Undecided with 10%
  73. ^ "Someone else" with 4%; Undecided with 8%
  74. ^ "Other" with 1%; Undecided with 5%
  75. ^ "Another candidate" with 6%; Undecided with 5%
  76. ^ Undecided with 2%; would not vote with 1%
  77. ^ Undecided with 9%; "Someone else" with 3%; would not vote with 0%
  78. ^ Undecided with 5%; "Refused" with 1%
  79. ^ Undecided with 5.2%; "Other" with 1.8%; "refused" with 0.4%
  80. ^ Undecided with 12%
  81. ^ Undecided with 3%; "Would not vote" with 0%
  82. ^ Undecided with 14%; "Third party/write-in" with 3%
  83. ^ Undecided with 14%; "Another candidate" and would not vote with 1%
  84. ^ "Someone else" with 4%; unsure with 3%
  85. ^ Undecided with 8%; "Other" with 3%; would not vote with 2%
  86. ^ "Undecided/refused" with 5.8%; "some other candidate" with 1.8%
  87. ^ "Refused" with 1%; Undecided with 7%
  88. ^ "Refused" with 0%; Undecided with 9%
  89. ^ "Refused" with 0%; Undecided with 13%
  90. ^ Undecided with 9%; "Would not vote/would not vote for US Senate" with 2%
  91. ^ "Refused" with 1%; Undecided with 10%
  92. ^ Undecided with 14%, refused with 2%
  93. ^ "Other" with 6%; "Refused" with 0%; Undecided with 4%
  94. ^ "Another candidate" with 5%; Undecided with 9%
  95. ^ "Undecided/Refused" with 6%
  96. ^ Undecided with 13%
  97. ^ Undecided with 14%
  98. ^ "Neither candidate or other candidate" with 12%
  99. ^ "Undecided/Don't know/Refused" with 6%
  100. ^ "Other" with 5%; "Refused" with 0%; Undecided with 6%
  101. ^ "Undecided/Don't know/Refused" with 14%
  102. ^ "Other" with 10%; "Refused" with 0%; Undecided with 7%

Partisan clients

  1. ^ The Justice Collaborative Project is an affiliate of the Tides Centre, a liberal fiscal sponsorship provider
  2. ^ a b The American Greatness PAC, this poll's sponsor, is pro-Trump.
  3. ^ This poll's sponsor, Democrats for Education Reform, exclusively supports Democratic candidates.
  4. ^ a b Poll sponsored by the American Action Network, a conservative advocacy group.
  5. ^ Poll sponsored by the Defend Students Action Fund.
  6. ^ Poll sponsored by the Human Rights Campaign which has endorsed Biden prior to this poll's sampling period.
  7. ^ a b c Poll sponsored by the McSally campaign
  8. ^ Poll sponsored by AARP.
  9. ^ a b Heritage Action is the sister organization of the Heritage Foundation, which exclusively endorses Republican candidates
  10. ^ This poll's sponsor is the American Principles Project, a 501 that supports the Republican Party.
  11. ^ Polling was sponsored by OANN.
  12. ^ a b This poll's sponsor, 314 Action, had endorsed Kelly prior to the sampling period
  13. ^ Poll sponsored by the Defend Students Action Fund.

References

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Further reading

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Official campaign websites

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