2002 Arizona gubernatorial election

2002 Arizona gubernatorial election
Turnout	56.33%
	County results; Napolitano: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70%; Salmon: 40–50% 50–60%
Governor before election; Jane Dee Hull; Republican	Elected Governor ; Janet Napolitano; Democratic

The 2002 Arizona gubernatorial election took place on November 5, 2002. Incumbent Republican governor Jane Dee Hull was term-limited. The Democratic nominee, Arizona Attorney General Janet Napolitano, narrowly defeated Republican Matt Salmon, a former U.S. Representative. Upon her inauguration, Napolitano became the first woman to succeed another woman as governor of a state. Until 2022, this was the last gubernatorial election in Arizona in which the margin of victory was single-digit.

Republican primary

Candidates

Betsey Bayless, Secretary of State of Arizona
Matt Salmon, former U.S. representative
Carol Springer, State Treasurer of Arizona

Declined to run

Dan Quayle, former vice president and Indiana senator^[2]

Results

Republican primary results^[3]
Party		Candidate	Votes	%
	Republican	Matt Salmon	174,055	55.99%
	Republican	Betsey Bayless	92,473	29.75%
	Republican	Carol Springer	44,333	14.26%
	Republican	Steve Moore (write-in)	16	0.01%
	Republican	Diana Kennedy (write-in)	8	0.00%
Total votes			310,885	100.00%

Democratic primary

Candidates

Alfredo Gutierrez, State Senator
Janet Napolitano, Attorney General of Arizona and former U.S. Attorney
Mike Newcomb, physician
Mark Osterloh, perennial candidate

Results

Democratic primary results^[3]
Party		Candidate	Votes	%
	Democratic	Janet Napolitano	128,702	57.23%
	Democratic	Alfredo Gutierrez	50,377	22.40%
	Democratic	Mark Osterloh	31,422	13.97%
	Democratic	Mike Newcomb	14,373	6.39%
Total votes			224,874	100.00%

Libertarian primary

Candidates

Gary Fallon
Barry Ness

Results

Libertarian primary results^[3]
Party		Candidate	Votes	%
	Libertarian	Barry Hess	1,414	51.01%
	Libertarian	Gary Fallon	1,358	48.99%
Total votes			2,772	100.00%

General election

Debates

Complete video of debate, October 30, 2002

Predictions

Source	Ranking	As of
The Cook Political Report^[4]	Tossup	October 31, 2002
Sabato's Crystal Ball^[5]	Lean D (flip)	November 4, 2002

Polling

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size^[a]	Margin of error	Janet Napolitano (D)	Matt Salmon (R)	Richard Mahoney (I)	Barry Hess (L)	Other / Undecided
SurveyUSA^[6]	October 29–31, 2002	661 (LV)	± 3.9%	43%	41%	11%	3%	1%

Results

The election was extremely close: Napolitano won by just 11,819 votes out of 1,226,111 cast, the closest gubernatorial election in Arizona in many years. Napolitano also won without carrying Maricopa County. Under Arizonan law, the losing candidate may request a recount, for which that candidate must pay, if the margin of victory is less than one percent but greater than half of one percent. In 2002, the margin of victory in 2002 was 1.0%, barely allowing a recount.

It soon became apparent that Napolitano had won the election and would be the next governor of Arizona. Salmon acknowledged that the chance of his prevailing in a recount was extremely small and decided not to ask for one (recounts seldom see a swing over 1,000 votes;^{[citation needed]} he was losing by over 10,000). He officially called Napolitano on November 17 and congratulated her on her victory.

On November 20, Arizona Secretary of State Betsey Bayless certified the results of the election and declared Napolitano the governor-elect.

Arizona gubernatorial election, 2002^[7]
Party		Candidate	Votes	%	±%
	Democratic	Janet Napolitano	566,284	46.19%	+10.66%
	Republican	Matt Salmon	554,465	45.22%	−15.72%
	Independent	Richard D. Mahoney	84,947	6.93%
	Libertarian	Barry Hess	20,356	1.66%	−1.01%
	Independent	Carlton Rahmani (write-in)	29	0.00%
	Independent	Tracey Sturgess (write-in)	15	0.00%
	Independent	Naida Axford (write-in)	5	0.00%
	Independent	Raymond Caplette (write-in)	5	0.00%
	Independent	D'Herrera Tapia (write-in)	4	0.00%
	Independent	L. D. Talbow (write-in)	1	0.00%
Majority			11,819	0.96%
Total votes			1,226,111	100.00%
	Democratic gain from Republican		Swing	+26.38%

Results by county

County	Janet Napolitano Democratic		Matt Salmon Republican		Richard D. Mahoney Independent		Barry Hess Libertarian		All others Write-in		Margin		Total votes cast^[7]
County	#	%	#	%	#	%	#	%	#	%	#	%	Total votes cast^[7]
Apache	10,927	61.22%	4,041	22.64%	2,516	14.10%	365	2.04%	1	0.01%	6,886	38.58%	17,850
Cochise	11,401	41.08%	13,210	47.60%	2,713	9.78%	426	1.53%	4	0.01%	-1,809	-6.52%	27,754
Coconino	18,928	54.89%	11,585	33.59%	3,260	9.45%	709	2.06%	3	0.01%	7,343	21.29%	34,485
Gila	7,331	47.44%	6,336	41.00%	1,467	9.49%	317	2.05%	1	0.01%	995	6.44%	15,452
Graham	2,924	36.64%	4,491	56.27%	467	5.85%	99	1.24%	0	0.00%	-1,567	-19.63%	7,981
Greenlee	966	44.91%	955	44.40%	180	8.37%	50	2.32%	0	0.00%	11	0.51%	2,151
La Paz	1,488	41.04%	1,766	48.70%	259	7.14%	113	3.12%	0	0.00%	-278	-7.67%	3,626
Maricopa	313,107	44.43%	337,954	47.95%	42,696	6.06%	10,966	1.56%	27	0.00%	-24,847	-3.53%	704,750
Mohave	13,227	37.59%	18,431	52.38%	2,889	8.21%	639	1.82%	0	0.00%	-5,204	-14.79%	35,186
Navajo	11,669	49.74%	9,423	40.17%	1,920	8.18%	444	1.89%	2	0.01%	2,246	9.57%	23,458
Pima	118,896	51.74%	89,002	38.73%	17,751	7.72%	4,140	1.80%	14	0.01%	29,894	13.01%	229,803
Pinal	18,300	48.13%	16,380	43.08%	2,658	6.99%	682	1.79%	3	0.01%	1,920	5.05%	38,023
Santa Cruz	3,675	57.93%	2,069	32.61%	495	7.80%	105	1.66%	0	0.00%	1,606	25.32%	6,344
Yavapai	23,238	40.50%	28,245	49.23%	4,866	8.48%	1,024	1.78%	3	0.01%	-5,007	-8.73%	57,376
Yuma	10,207	46.67%	10,577	48.36%	810	3.70%	277	1.27%	1	0.00%	-370	-1.69%	21,872
Totals	566,284	46.19%	554,465	45.22%	84,947	6.93%	20,356	1.66%	59	0.00%	11,819	0.96%	1,226,111

Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

Coconino (largest municipality: Flagstaff)
Gila (largest city: Payson)
Greenlee (largest city: Clifton)
Navajo (largest city: Show Low)
Pima (largest municipality: Tucson)
Pinal (largest city: San Tan Valley)
Santa Cruz (largest municipality: Nogales)

Notes

^ Key:
A – all adults
RV – registered voters
LV – likely voters
V – unclear

References

^ "Voter Registration Statistics | Arizona Secretary of State". Retrieved May 7, 2023.
^ Ayres, B. Drummond Jr. (February 11, 2001). "Political Briefing; From Arizona, Talk Of a Bid by Quayle (Published 2001)". The New York Times. ISSN 0362-4331. Retrieved January 15, 2021.
^ ^a ^b ^c "State of Arizona Official Canvass 2002 Primary Election - September 10, 2002" (PDF). Arizona Secretary of State. Retrieved July 14, 2024.
^ "Governor Updated October 31, 2002 | The Cook Political Report". The Cook Political Report. October 31, 2002. Archived from the original on December 8, 2002. Retrieved September 18, 2018.
^ "Governors Races". www.centerforpolitics.org. November 4, 2002. Archived from the original on December 12, 2002. Retrieved September 18, 2018.
^ SurveyUSA
^ ^a ^b "State of Arizona Official Canvass 2002 General Election - November 5, 2002" (PDF). Arizona Secretary of State. Retrieved July 14, 2024.

[key-6] Key:
A – all adults
RV – registered voters
LV – likely voters
V – unclear

[1] "Voter Registration Statistics | Arizona Secretary of State". Retrieved May 7, 2023.

[2] Ayres, B. Drummond Jr. (February 11, 2001). "Political Briefing; From Arizona, Talk Of a Bid by Quayle (Published 2001)". The New York Times. ISSN 0362-4331. Retrieved January 15, 2021.

[primary-3] "State of Arizona Official Canvass 2002 Primary Election - September 10, 2002" (PDF). Arizona Secretary of State. Retrieved July 14, 2024.

[4] "Governor Updated October 31, 2002 | The Cook Political Report". The Cook Political Report. October 31, 2002. Archived from the original on December 8, 2002. Retrieved September 18, 2018.

[5] "Governors Races". www.centerforpolitics.org. November 4, 2002. Archived from the original on December 12, 2002. Retrieved September 18, 2018.

[7] SurveyUSA

[results-8] "State of Arizona Official Canvass 2002 General Election - November 5, 2002" (PDF). Arizona Secretary of State. Retrieved July 14, 2024.

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