2020 United States presidential election in Louisiana
(Redirected from 2020 Louisiana Republican presidential primary)
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| Elections in Louisiana |
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 Government |
The 2020 United States presidential election in Louisiana was held on Tuesday, November 3, 2020, as part of the 2020 United States presidential election in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia participated.[1] Louisiana voters chose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote, pitting the Republican Party's nominee, incumbent President Donald Trump, and running mate Vice President Mike Pence against Democratic Party nominee, former Vice President Joe Biden, and his running mate California Senator Kamala Harris. Louisiana has eight electoral votes in the Electoral College.[2]
Trump won Louisiana on the day of the election 58.5% to 39.9%, a margin of 18.6%, down from 19.4% in 2016. Per exit polls by the Associated Press, his strength in Louisiana came from White born-again/Evangelical Christians as well as conservative Roman Catholics who have a high population in Louisiana, who supported Trump with 91% and 80% of their vote. On the issue of abortion, 57% of voters believed abortion should be illegal in most or all cases. As is the case in most southern states, there was a stark racial divide in voting for this election: Whites supported Trump by 77%–22% while African-Americans supported Biden by 88%–10%.[3]
Primary elections
[edit]The primary elections were originally scheduled for April 4, 2020. On March 13, they were moved to June 20 due to concerns over the COVID-19 pandemic.[4] Then on April 14, they were further pushed back to July 11.[5]
Republican primary
[edit]Incumbent President Donald Trump was essentially uncontested in the Republican primary.[6] The state has 46 delegates to the 2020 Republican National Convention.[7]
Democratic primary
[edit]| Candidate | Votes | % | Delegates[9] |
|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Biden | 212,555 | 79.52 | 54 |
| Bernie Sanders (withdrawn) | 19,859 | 7.43 | |
| Elizabeth Warren (withdrawn) | 6,426 | 2.40 | |
| Michael Bennet (withdrawn) | 6,173 | 2.31 | |
| Andrew Yang (withdrawn) | 4,617 | 1.73 | |
| Michael Bloomberg (withdrawn) | 4,312 | 1.61 | |
| Amy Klobuchar (withdrawn) | 2,431 | 0.91 | |
| Pete Buttigieg (withdrawn) | 2,363 | 0.88 | |
| Tulsi Gabbard (withdrawn) | 1,962 | 0.73 | |
| John Delaney (withdrawn) | 1,877 | 0.70 | |
| Tom Steyer (withdrawn) | 902 | 0.34 | |
| Deval Patrick (withdrawn) | 877 | 0.33 | |
| Other candidates | 2,932 | 1.10 | |
| Total | 267,286 | 100% | 54 |
General election
[edit]
Predictions
[edit]| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| The Cook Political Report[10] | Safe R | September 10, 2020 |
| Inside Elections[11] | Safe R | September 4, 2020 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[12] | Safe R | July 14, 2020 |
| Politico[13] | Safe R | September 8, 2020 |
| RCP[14] | Likely R | August 3, 2020 |
| Niskanen[15] | Safe R | July 26, 2020 |
| CNN[16] | Safe R | August 3, 2020 |
| The Economist[17] | Safe R | September 23, 2020 |
| CBS News[18] | Likely R | August 16, 2020 |
| 270towin[19] | Safe R | August 2, 2020 |
| ABC News[20] | Safe R | July 31, 2020 |
| NPR[21] | Likely R | August 3, 2020 |
| NBC News[22] | Likely R | August 6, 2020 |
| 538[23] | Safe R | November 2, 2020 |
Polling
[edit]Graphical summary
 | Graphs are unavailable due to technical issues. There is more info on Phabricator and on MediaWiki.org. |
Aggregate polls
[edit]| Source of poll aggregation |
Dates administered |
Dates updated |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Other/ Undecided [a] |
Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 270 to Win[24] | October 14–27, 2020 | November 3, 2020 | 36.0% | 56.5% | 7.5% | Trump +20.5 |
| FiveThirtyEight[25] | until November 2, 2020 | November 3, 2020 | 37.1% | 57.6% | 5.3% | Trump +20.6 |
| Average | 36.6% | 57.1% | 6.4% | Trump +20.5 | ||
Polls
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[b] |
Margin of error |
Donald Trump Republican |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Jo Jorgensen Libertarian |
Howie Hawkins Green |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SurveyMonkey/Axios[26] | Oct 20 – Nov 2, 2020 | 1,556 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 62%[c] | 36% | – | – | – | – |
| Swayable[27] | Oct 23 – Nov 1, 2020 | 378 (LV) | ± 6.7% | 57% | 39% | 4% | – | – | – |
| SurveyMonkey/Axios[26] | Oct 1–28, 2020 | 2,633 (LV) | – | 60% | 38% | – | – | – | – |
| University of New Orleans[28] | Oct 22, 2020 | 755 (LV) | ± 3.6% | 59% | 36% | – | – | 4% | 1% |
| Trafalgar Group[29] | Oct 4–6, 2020 | 1,048 (LV) | ± 2.95% | 54% | 36% | 3% | – | 1%[d] | 6% |
| SurveyMonkey/Axios[26] | Sep 1–30, 2020 | 2,475 (LV) | – | 60% | 38% | – | – | – | 2% |
| Tyson Group/Consumer Energy Alliance[30][A] | Sep 2–5, 2020 | 600 (LV) | ± 4% | 48% | 42% | 2% | – | No voters[e] | 7% |
| SurveyMonkey/Axios[26] | Aug 1–31, 2020 | 2,587 (LV) | – | 59% | 38% | – | – | – | 2% |
| Trafalgar Group[31] | Aug 13–17, 2020 | 1,002 (LV) | ± 2.99% | 54% | 38% | 3% | – | 1%[d] | 4% |
| ALG Research/Perkins for LA[32][1] Archived November 1, 2020, at the Wayback Machine[B] | Aug 6–12, 2020 | 800 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 50% | 43% | – | – | – | 7% |
| SurveyMonkey/Axios[26] | Jul 1–31, 2020 | 2,998 (LV) | – | 60% | 39% | – | – | – | 2% |
| SurveyMonkey/Axios[26] | Jun 8–30, 2020 | 1,134 (LV) | – | 60% | 37% | – | – | – | 3% |
Hypothetical polling
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with Donald Trump and Generic Opponent
with Generic Republican and Generic Democrat
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Results
[edit]Statewide results
[edit]| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Donald Trump Mike Pence |
1,255,776 | 58.46% | +0.46% | |
| Democratic | Joe Biden Kamala Harris |
856,034 | 39.85% | +1.45% | |
| Libertarian | Jo Jorgensen Spike Cohen |
21,645 | 1.01% | −0.89% | |
| The Birthday Party | Kanye West Michelle Tidball |
4,897 | 0.23% | N/A | |
| American Solidarity | Brian Carroll Amar Patel |
2,497 | 0.12% | N/A | |
| Becoming One Nation | Jade Simmons Claudeliah Rose |
1,626 | 0.08% | N/A | |
| C.U.P. | President Boddie Eric Stoneham |
1,125 | 0.05% | N/A | |
| Socialism and Liberation | Gloria La Riva Sunil Freeman |
987 | 0.05% | N/A | |
| Constitution | Don Blankenship William Mohr |
860 | 0.04% | N/A | |
| Freedom and Prosperity | Brock Pierce Karla Ballard |
749 | 0.03% | N/A | |
| Life, Liberty, Constitution | Tom Hoefling Andy Prior |
668 | 0.03% | N/A | |
| Unity | Bill Hammons Eric Bodenstab |
662 | 0.03% | N/A | |
| Socialist Workers | Alyson Kennedy Malcolm Jarrett |
536 | 0.02% | N/A | |
| Total votes | 2,148,062 | 100.00% | |||
By parish
[edit]| Parish | Donald Trump Republican |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Various candidates Other parties |
Margin | Total | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| # | % | # | % | # | % | # | % | ||
| Acadia | 22,596 | 79.49% | 5,443 | 19.15% | 386 | 1.36% | 17,153 | 60.34% | 28,425 |
| Allen | 7,574 | 77.21% | 2,108 | 21.49% | 128 | 1.30% | 5,466 | 55.72% | 9,810 |
| Ascension | 40,687 | 65.28% | 20,399 | 32.73% | 1,239 | 1.99% | 20,288 | 32.55% | 62,325 |
| Assumption | 7,271 | 64.72% | 3,833 | 34.12% | 131 | 1.16% | 3,438 | 30.60% | 11,235 |
| Avoyelles | 12,028 | 69.56% | 4,979 | 28.79% | 285 | 1.65% | 7,049 | 40.77% | 17,292 |
| Beauregard | 13,575 | 82.99% | 2,542 | 15.54% | 240 | 1.47% | 11,033 | 67.45% | 16,357 |
| Bienville | 3,891 | 55.19% | 3,067 | 43.50% | 92 | 1.31% | 824 | 11.69% | 7,050 |
| Bossier | 38,074 | 69.66% | 15,662 | 28.66% | 919 | 1.68% | 22,412 | 41.00% | 54,655 |
| Caddo | 48,021 | 45.77% | 55,110 | 52.53% | 1,781 | 1.70% | -7,089 | -6.76% | 104,912 |
| Calcasieu | 55,066 | 66.62% | 25,982 | 31.43% | 1,615 | 1.95% | 29,084 | 35.19% | 82,663 |
| Caldwell | 3,976 | 83.49% | 745 | 15.64% | 41 | 0.87% | 3,231 | 67.85% | 4,762 |
| Cameron | 3,671 | 90.89% | 324 | 8.02% | 44 | 1.09% | 3,347 | 82.87% | 4,039 |
| Catahoula | 3,541 | 72.89% | 1,269 | 26.12% | 48 | 0.99% | 2,272 | 46.77% | 4,858 |
| Claiborne | 3,770 | 57.29% | 2,731 | 41.50% | 79 | 1.21% | 1,039 | 15.79% | 6,580 |
| Concordia | 5,550 | 62.87% | 3,177 | 35.99% | 101 | 1.14% | 2,373 | 26.88% | 8,828 |
| DeSoto | 9,112 | 61.83% | 5,457 | 37.03% | 167 | 1.14% | 3,655 | 24.80% | 14,736 |
| East Baton Rouge | 88,420 | 42.47% | 115,577 | 55.52% | 4,185 | 2.01% | -27,157 | -13.05% | 208,182 |
| East Carroll | 1,080 | 35.57% | 1,900 | 62.58% | 56 | 1.85% | -820 | -27.01% | 3,036 |
| East Feliciana | 6,064 | 57.70% | 4,280 | 40.73% | 165 | 1.57% | 1,784 | 16.97% | 10,509 |
| Evangeline | 11,053 | 71.72% | 4,158 | 26.98% | 201 | 1.30% | 6,895 | 44.74% | 15,412 |
| Franklin | 6,970 | 71.71% | 2,658 | 27.35% | 92 | 0.94% | 4,312 | 44.36% | 9,720 |
| Grant | 8,117 | 86.42% | 1,157 | 12.32% | 118 | 1.26% | 6,960 | 74.10% | 9,392 |
| Iberia | 21,251 | 64.96% | 11,027 | 33.71% | 435 | 1.33% | 10,224 | 31.25% | 32,713 |
| Iberville | 7,893 | 47.21% | 8,514 | 50.92% | 312 | 1.87% | -621 | -3.71% | 16,719 |
| Jackson | 5,394 | 70.68% | 2,143 | 28.08% | 95 | 1.24% | 3,251 | 42.60% | 7,632 |
| Jefferson | 105,949 | 54.69% | 84,477 | 43.60% | 3,307 | 1.71% | 21,472 | 11.09% | 193,733 |
| Jefferson Davis | 11,423 | 76.97% | 3,208 | 21.62% | 210 | 1.41% | 8,215 | 55.35% | 14,841 |
| Lafayette | 72,519 | 63.32% | 39,685 | 34.65% | 2,317 | 2.03% | 32,834 | 28.67% | 114,521 |
| Lafourche | 36,024 | 79.37% | 8,672 | 19.11% | 692 | 1.52% | 27,352 | 60.26% | 45,388 |
| LaSalle | 6,378 | 90.12% | 638 | 9.02% | 61 | 0.86% | 5,740 | 81.10% | 7,077 |
| Lincoln | 11,311 | 58.68% | 7,559 | 39.22% | 405 | 2.10% | 3,752 | 19.46% | 19,275 |
| Livingston | 54,877 | 84.13% | 9,249 | 14.18% | 1,104 | 1.69% | 45,628 | 69.95% | 65,230 |
| Madison | 1,930 | 41.33% | 2,654 | 56.83% | 86 | 1.84% | -724 | -15.50% | 4,670 |
| Morehouse | 6,510 | 56.25% | 4,946 | 42.73% | 118 | 1.02% | 1,564 | 13.52% | 11,574 |
| Natchitoches | 9,358 | 56.53% | 6,896 | 41.66% | 300 | 1.81% | 2,462 | 14.87% | 16,554 |
| Orleans | 26,664 | 15.00% | 147,854 | 83.15% | 3,301 | 1.85% | -121,190 | -68.15% | 177,819 |
| Ouachita | 42,255 | 61.09% | 25,913 | 37.46% | 998 | 1.45% | 16,342 | 23.63% | 69,166 |
| Plaquemines | 7,412 | 67.30% | 3,414 | 31.00% | 188 | 1.70% | 3,998 | 36.30% | 11,014 |
| Pointe Coupee | 7,503 | 60.65% | 4,683 | 37.85% | 185 | 1.50% | 2,820 | 22.80% | 12,371 |
| Rapides | 38,347 | 65.14% | 19,475 | 33.08% | 1,043 | 1.78% | 18,872 | 32.06% | 58,865 |
| Red River | 2,413 | 58.40% | 1,644 | 39.79% | 75 | 1.81% | 769 | 18.61% | 4,132 |
| Richland | 6,607 | 66.47% | 3,225 | 32.44% | 108 | 1.09% | 3,382 | 34.03% | 9,940 |
| Sabine | 8,776 | 82.82% | 1,731 | 16.34% | 89 | 0.84% | 7,045 | 66.48% | 10,596 |
| St. Bernard | 11,179 | 63.34% | 6,151 | 34.85% | 320 | 1.81% | 5,028 | 28.49% | 17,650 |
| St. Charles | 18,233 | 63.94% | 9,800 | 34.37% | 484 | 1.69% | 7,433 | 29.57% | 28,517 |
| St. Helena | 2,714 | 44.07% | 3,346 | 54.34% | 98 | 1.59% | -632 | -10.27% | 6,158 |
| St. James | 5,954 | 47.29% | 6,510 | 51.71% | 126 | 1.00% | -556 | -4.42% | 12,590 |
| St. John the Baptist | 7,538 | 35.17% | 13,582 | 63.37% | 312 | 1.46% | -6,044 | -28.20% | 21,432 |
| St. Landry | 23,171 | 56.30% | 17,372 | 42.21% | 611 | 1.49% | 5,799 | 14.09% | 41,154 |
| St. Martin | 18,203 | 67.32% | 8,439 | 31.21% | 396 | 1.47% | 9,764 | 36.11% | 27,038 |
| St. Mary | 14,811 | 63.88% | 8,055 | 34.74% | 320 | 1.38% | 6,766 | 29.14% | 23,186 |
| St. Tammany | 99,666 | 71.13% | 37,746 | 26.94% | 2,698 | 1.93% | 61,920 | 44.19% | 140,110 |
| Tangipahoa | 37,806 | 65.57% | 18,887 | 32.76% | 968 | 1.67% | 18,919 | 32.81% | 57,661 |
| Tensas | 1,197 | 46.87% | 1,329 | 52.04% | 28 | 1.09% | -132 | -5.17% | 2,554 |
| Terrebonne | 34,339 | 74.26% | 11,198 | 24.22% | 703 | 1.52% | 23,141 | 50.04% | 46,240 |
| Union | 8,407 | 75.06% | 2,654 | 23.69% | 140 | 1.25% | 5,753 | 51.37% | 11,201 |
| Vermilion | 21,930 | 80.26% | 5,009 | 18.33% | 385 | 1.41% | 16,921 | 61.93% | 27,324 |
| Vernon | 14,107 | 81.69% | 2,898 | 16.78% | 263 | 1.53% | 11,209 | 64.91% | 17,268 |
| Washington | 13,307 | 68.20% | 5,970 | 30.59% | 236 | 1.21% | 7,337 | 37.61% | 19,513 |
| Webster | 11,830 | 64.94% | 6,172 | 33.88% | 214 | 1.18% | 5,658 | 31.06% | 18,216 |
| West Baton Rouge | 7,684 | 54.51% | 6,200 | 43.98% | 213 | 1.51% | 1,484 | 10.53% | 14,097 |
| West Carroll | 4,317 | 85.45% | 710 | 14.05% | 25 | 0.50% | 3,607 | 71.40% | 5,052 |
| West Feliciana | 3,863 | 61.63% | 2,298 | 36.66% | 107 | 1.71% | 1,565 | 24.97% | 6,268 |
| Winn | 4,619 | 74.20% | 1,543 | 24.79% | 63 | 1.01% | 3,076 | 49.41% | 6,225 |
| Totals | 1,255,776 | 58.46% | 856,034 | 39.85% | 36,252 | 1.69% | 399,742 | 18.61% | 2,148,062 |
Legend
- Democratic — +5-7.5%
- Democratic — +2.5-5%
- Democratic — +0-2.5%
- Republican — +0-2.5%
- Republican — +2.5-5%
- Republican — +5-7.5%
- Republican — +7.5-10%
By congressional district
[edit]Trump won 5 of the 6 congressional districts in Louisiana.
| District | Trump | Biden | Representative |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 68% | 30.1% | Steve Scalise |
| 2nd | 23% | 75.3% | Cedric Richmond |
| 3rd | 68.1% | 30.2% | Clay Higgins |
| 4th | 61.5% | 37% | Mike Johnson |
| 5th | 64.5% | 34.1% | Ralph Abraham |
| 6th | 63.8% | 34.4% | Garret Graves |
Notes
[edit]- ^ Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
- ^ a b c Key:
A – all adults
RV – registered voters
LV – likely voters
V – unclear - ^ Overlapping sample with the previous SurveyMonkey/Axios poll, but more information available regarding sample size
- ^ a b "Another Party Candidate" with 1%
- ^ "Refused" with no voters
- ^ "Refused" with 1%
Partisan clients
See also
[edit]- United States presidential elections in Louisiana
- Presidency of Joe Biden
- 2020 Louisiana elections
- 2020 United States presidential election
- 2020 Democratic Party presidential primaries
- 2020 Republican Party presidential primaries
- 2020 United States elections
References
[edit]- ^ Kelly, Ben (August 13, 2018). "US elections key dates: When are the 2018 midterms and the 2020 presidential campaign?". The Independent. Archived from the original on August 2, 2018. Retrieved January 3, 2019.
- ^ "Distribution of Electoral Votes". National Archives and Records Administration. Retrieved January 3, 2019.
- ^ "Louisiana Voter Surveys: How Different Groups Voted". The New York Times. November 3, 2020. ISSN 0362-4331. Retrieved November 9, 2020.
- ^ "Louisiana postpones Democratic primary over coronavirus, the first state to do so". CNBC. March 13, 2020.
- ^ "Louisiana presidential primary pushed back again, to July 11". ABC News. April 14, 2020.
- ^ "Donald Trump, Joe Biden win Louisiana's presidential primary". Associated Press. July 11, 2020.
- ^ "Louisiana Republican Delegation 2020". The Green Papers. Retrieved June 23, 2020.
- ^ "Results for Election Date: 7/11/2020". Louisiana Secretary of State. Retrieved October 13, 2020.
- ^ "Delegate Tracker". interactives.ap.org. Associated Press. Retrieved July 11, 2020.
- ^ "2020 POTUS Race ratings" (PDF). The Cook Political Report. Retrieved May 21, 2019.
- ^ "POTUS Ratings | Inside Elections". insideelections.com. Retrieved May 21, 2019.
- ^ "Larry J. Sabato's Crystal Ball » 2020 President". crystalball.centerforpolitics.org. Retrieved May 21, 2019.
- ^ "2020 Election Forecast". Politico. November 19, 2019.
- ^ "Battle for White House". RCP. April 19, 2019.
- ^ 2020 Bitecofer Model Electoral College Predictions Archived April 23, 2020, at the Wayback Machine, Niskanen Center, March 24, 2020, retrieved: April 19, 2020.
- ^ David Chalian; Terence Burlij (June 11, 2020). "Road to 270: CNN's debut Electoral College map for 2020". CNN. Retrieved June 16, 2020.
- ^ "Forecasting the US elections". The Economist. Retrieved July 7, 2020.
- ^ "2020 Election Battleground Tracker". CBS News. July 12, 2020. Retrieved July 13, 2020.
- ^ "2020 Presidential Election Interactive Map". 270 to Win.
- ^ "ABC News Race Ratings". CBS News. July 24, 2020. Retrieved July 24, 2020.
- ^ Montanaro, Domenico (August 3, 2020). "2020 Electoral Map Ratings: Trump Slides, Biden Advantage Expands Over 270 Votes". NPR.org. Retrieved August 3, 2020.
- ^ "Biden dominates the electoral map, but here's how the race could tighten". NBC News. August 6, 2020. Retrieved August 6, 2020.
- ^ "2020 Election Forecast". FiveThirtyEight. August 12, 2020. Retrieved August 14, 2020.
- ^ "Louisiana 2020 Presidential Election Polls: Biden vs. Trump - 270toWin". 270toWin.com.
- ^ Best, Ryan; Bycoffe, Aaron; King, Ritchie; Mehta, Dhrumil; Wiederkehr, Anna (June 28, 2018). "Louisiana : President: general election Polls". FiveThirtyEight.
- ^ a b c d e f "Candidate preference". www.tableau.com.
- ^ "Swayable". Archived from the original on November 27, 2020.
- ^ "THE 2020 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION IN LOUISIANA | The University of New Orleans". www.uno.edu.
- ^ "TRF LA Pres '20 Oct Poll Report.pdf". Google Docs.
- ^ "Tyson Group/Consumer Energy Alliance" (PDF).
- ^ "LA '20 Pres Poll Report.pdf". Google Docs.
- ^ "ALG Research/Perkins for LA" (PDF). Archived from the original (PDF) on November 1, 2020.
- ^ "Multi-Quest International/The Hay Ride" (PDF).
- ^ "Market Research Insight" (PDF).
- ^ Grace, Stephanie (July 31, 2020). "Grace Notes: How does Louisiana feel about President Trump? New poll shows a deep divide". NOLA.com.
- ^ "Official Election Results - Presidential Electors". Louisiana Secretary of State. Retrieved November 19, 2020.
Further reading
[edit]- Summary: State Laws on Presidential Electors (PDF), Washington DC: National Association of Secretaries of State, August 2020,
Louisiana
External links
[edit]- Government Documents Round Table of the American Library Association, "Louisiana", Voting & Elections Toolkits
- "Louisiana: Election Tools, Deadlines, Dates, Rules, and Links", Vote.org, Oakland, CA
- "League of Women Voters of Louisiana". (State affiliate of the U.S. League of Women Voters)
- Louisiana at Ballotpedia
- "Election Guides: Louisiana", Spreadthevote.org, archived from the original on October 4, 2020, retrieved October 7, 2020. (Guidance to help voters get to the polls; addresses transport, childcare, work, information challenges)
