2023 Nigerian presidential election in Oyo State
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The 2023 Nigerian presidential election in Oyo State will be held on 25 February 2023 as part of the nationwide 2023 Nigerian presidential election to elect the president and vice president of Nigeria.[1] Other federal elections, including elections to the House of Representatives and the Senate, will also be held on the same date while state elections will be held two weeks afterward on 11 March.
Background
[edit]Oyo State is a large, Yoruba-majority southwestern state; the state has vast agricultural and service sectors but it faces large security issues from both inter-ethnic violence and conflict between herders and farmers along with a large number of out-of-school children.[2]
Politically, the 2019 elections in the state were categorized as a large swing towards the PDP as the party's presidential nominee Atiku Abubakar narrowly won the state after Buhari had won it in 2015, PDP nominee Seyi Makinde won the gubernatorial race by 17%, and the PDP gained a majority in the House of Assembly.[citation needed] For the Senate, the APC won back two Senate seats it lost through defections while the PDP gained a APC-held seat; in the House of Representatives, the APC won the majority of the seats.[citation needed]
Polling
[edit]| Polling organisation/client | Fieldwork date |
Sample size |
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|
Others | Undecided | Undisclosed | Not voting | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tinubu APC |
Obi LP |
Kwankwaso NNPP |
Abubakar PDP | |||||||
| BantuPage | December 2022 | N/A | 37% | 11% | 0% | 18% | – | 21% | 3% | 10% |
| Nextier (Oyo crosstabs of national poll) |
27 January 2023 | N/A | 14.6% | 36.9% | 7.8% | 27.2% | 2.9% | 10.7% | – | – |
| SBM Intelligence for EiE (Oyo crosstabs of national poll) |
22 January-6 February 2023 | N/A | 39% | 38% | – | 13% | 1% | 10% | – | – |
Projections
[edit]| Source | Projection | As of | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Africa Elects[a][3] | Lean Tinubu | 24 February 2023 | |
| Dataphyte[b][4] | |||
| Tinubu: | 37.84% | 11 February 2023 | |
| Obi: | 19.95% | ||
| Abubakar: | 25.11% | ||
| Others: | 17.10% | ||
| Enough is Enough- SBM Intelligence[c][5] |
Tinubu | 17 February 2023 | |
| SBM Intelligence[d][6] | Tinubu | 15 December 2022 | |
| ThisDay[e][7] | |||
| Tinubu: | 40% | 27 December 2022 | |
| Obi: | 15% | ||
| Kwankwaso: | 10% | ||
| Abubakar: | 20% | ||
| Others/Undecided: | 15% | ||
| The Nation[f][8][9] | Tinubu | 12-19 February 2023 | |
General election
[edit]Results
[edit]| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A | Christopher Imumolen | |||
| AA | Hamza al-Mustapha | |||
| ADP | Yabagi Sani | |||
| APP | Osita Nnadi | |||
| AAC | Omoyele Sowore | |||
| ADC | Dumebi Kachikwu | |||
| APC | Bola Tinubu | |||
| APGA | Peter Umeadi | |||
| APM | Princess Chichi Ojei | |||
| BP | Sunday Adenuga | |||
| LP | Peter Obi | |||
| NRM | Felix Johnson Osakwe | |||
| New Nigeria Peoples Party | Rabiu Kwankwaso | |||
| PRP | Kola Abiola | |||
| PDP | Atiku Abubakar | |||
| SDP | Adewole Adebayo | |||
| YPP | Malik Ado-Ibrahim | |||
| ZLP | Dan Nwanyanwu | |||
| Total votes | 100.00% | |||
| Invalid or blank votes | N/A | |||
| Turnout | ||||
By senatorial district
[edit]The results of the election by senatorial district.
| Senatorial District | Bola Tinubu APC |
Atiku Abubakar PDP |
Peter Obi LP |
Rabiu Kwankwaso NNPP |
Others | Total valid votes | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Votes | % | Votes | % | Votes | % | Votes | % | Votes | % | ||
| Oyo Central Senatorial District[g] | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD |
| Oyo North Senatorial District[h] | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD |
| Oyo South Senatorial District[i] | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD |
| Totals | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD |
By federal constituency
[edit]The results of the election by federal constituency.
| Federal Constituency | Bola Tinubu APC |
Atiku Abubakar PDP |
Peter Obi LP |
Rabiu Kwankwaso NNPP |
Others | Total valid votes | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Votes | % | Votes | % | Votes | % | Votes | % | Votes | % | ||
| Afijio/Atiba/Oyo East/Oyo West Federal Constituency[j] | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD |
| Akinyele/Lagelu Federal Constituency[k] | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD |
| Atisbo/Saki East/Saki West Federal Constituency[l] | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD |
| Egbeda/Ona-Ara Federal Constituency[m] | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD |
| Ibadan North East/Ibadan South East Federal Constituency[n] | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD |
| Ibadan North Federal Constituency[o] | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD |
| Ibadan North West/Ibadan South West Federal Constituency[p] | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD |
| Ibarapa Central/Ibarapa North Federal Constituency[q] | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD |
| Ibarapa East/Ido Federal Constituency[r] | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD |
| Irepo/Olorunsogo/Orelope Federal Constituency[s] | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD |
| Iseyin/Kajola/Iwajowa/Itesiwaju Federal Constituency[t] | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD |
| Ogbomosho North/Ogbomosho South/Orire Federal Constituency[u] | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD |
| Ogo-Oluwa/Surulere Federal Constituency[v] | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD |
| Oluyole Federal Constituency[w] | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD |
| Totals | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD |
By local government area
[edit]The results of the election by local government area.
| Local government area | Bola Tinubu APC |
Atiku Abubakar PDP |
Peter Obi LP |
Rabiu Kwankwaso NNPP |
Others | Total valid votes | Turnout (%) | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Votes | % | Votes | % | Votes | % | Votes | % | Votes | % | |||
| Afijio | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % |
| Akinyele | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % |
| Atiba | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % |
| Atisbo | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % |
| Egbeda | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % |
| Ibadan North | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % |
| Ibadan North-East | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % |
| Ibadan North-West | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % |
| Ibadan South-East | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % |
| Ibadan South-West | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % |
| Ibarapa Central | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % |
| Ibarapa East | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % |
| Ibarapa North | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % |
| Ido | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % |
| Irepo | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % |
| Iseyin | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % |
| Itesiwaju | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % |
| Iwajowa | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % |
| Kajola | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % |
| Lagelu | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % |
| Ogbomosho North | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % |
| Ogbomosho South | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % |
| Ogo Oluwa | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % |
| Olorunsogo | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % |
| Oluyole | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % |
| Ona Ara | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % |
| Orelope | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % |
| Ori Ire | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % |
| Oyo East | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % |
| Oyo West | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % |
| Saki East | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % |
| Saki West | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % |
| Surulere | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % |
| Totals | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % |
See also
[edit]Notes
[edit]- ^ Africa Elects projections predict the likelihood of a candidate winning a state by categorizing a state as "Safe" for exceedingly likely, "Likely" for somewhat likely, and "Lean" for least likely. If no clear determination could be made, states are categorized as "tossups".
- ^ Dataphyte projections predict candidates' projected votal shares in each state.
- ^ EiE-SBM projections predict which candidates will win states.
- ^ SBM projections predict which candidates will win states or, if no determination could be made, categorizes states as "Too close to call" (TCC).
- ^ ThisDay projections predict candidates' projected votal shares in each state.
- ^ The Nation projections predict which candidates will win states or, if no determination could be made, categorizes states as "Battlegrounds."
- ^ Comprising the local government areas of Afijio, Akinyele, Atiba, Egbeda, Lagelu, Ogo Oluwa, Oluyole, Ona Ara, Oyo East, Oyo West, and Surulere.
- ^ Comprising the local government areas of Atisbo, Irepo, Iseyin, Itesiwaju, Iwajowa, Kajola, Ogbomosho North, Ogbomosho South, Olorunsogo, Orelope, Ori Ire, Saki East, and Saki West.
- ^ Comprising the local government areas of Ibadan North, Ibadan North-East, Ibadan North-West, Ibadan South-East, Ibadan South-West, Ibarapa Central, Ibarapa East, Ibarapa North, and Ido.
- ^ Comprising the local government areas of Afijio, Atiba, Oyo East, and Oyo West.
- ^ Comprising the local government areas of Akinyele and Lagelu.
- ^ Comprising the local government areas of Atisbo, Saki East, and Saki West.
- ^ Comprising the local government areas of Egbeda and Ona Ara.
- ^ Comprising the local government areas of Ibadan North-East and Ibadan South-East.
- ^ Comprising the local government areas of Ibadan North.
- ^ Comprising the local government areas of Ibadan North-West and Ibadan South-West.
- ^ Comprising the local government areas of Ibarapa Central and Ibarapa North.
- ^ Comprising the local government areas of Ibarapa East and Ido.
- ^ Comprising the local government areas of Irepo, Olorunsogo, and Orelope.
- ^ Comprising the local government areas of Iseyin, Itesiwaju, Iwajowa, and Kajola.
- ^ Comprising the local government areas of Ogbomosho North, Ogbomosho South, and Ori Ire.
- ^ Comprising the local government areas of Ogo Oluwa and Surulere.
- ^ Comprising the local government area of Oluyole.
References
[edit]- ^ Jimoh, Abbas (26 February 2022). "INEC Sets New Dates For 2023 General Elections". Daily Trust. Retrieved 26 February 2022.
- ^ Kabir, Adejumo. "INSIDE STORY: How artisans' fight led to ethnic violence in Oyo". Premium Times. Retrieved 17 May 2022.
- ^ Elimian, Adrian (24 February 2023). "Nigerian Presidential Election: State Ratings". Africa Elects. Retrieved 25 February 2023.
- ^ "President Tinubu: Predilections and Predictions". Substack. Dataphyte. 11 February 2023. Retrieved 11 February 2023.
- ^ "The EiE-SBM 2023 Election forecast: It all hinges on insecurity and turnout". SBM Intelligence. 17 February 2023. Retrieved 19 February 2023.
- ^ "Projection: 2023 presidential elections". SBM Intelligence. 15 December 2022. Retrieved 27 December 2022.
- ^ "THISDAY 2023 Election Centre: Why Presidential Run off is Increasingly Likely". ThisDay. 27 December 2022. Retrieved 27 December 2022.
- ^ Oladesu, Emmanuel; Alli, Yusuf; O’neil, Shola; Onu, Nwanosike; Odiegwu, Mike; Adeyemi, Kolade; Ihyongo, Fanen; Adenuga, David; Emmanuel, Uja; Alabelewe, AbdulGafar; Shittu, Sola; Asishana, Justina; Duku, Joel; Oota, Linus; Okezie, Augustine; Alao, Onimisi; Onogu, Sanni; Jimoh, Adekunle; Odufowokan, 'Dare; Adedeji, Toba; Ibrahim, Rasaq; Oladele, Bisi; Otabor, Osagie; Okungbowa, Aiwerie; Nsa, Gil; Anioke, Ogo; Duruihuoma, Damian; Njoku, Chris; Nwankwo, Sunny. "Who wins 2023 presidential election?". The Nation. Retrieved 19 February 2023.
- ^ Oladesu, Emmanuel; Alli, Yusuf; O’neil, Shola; Onu, Nwanosike; Odiegwu, Mike; Adeyemi, Kolade; Ihyongo, Fanen; Adenuga, David; Emmanuel, Uja; Alabelewe, AbdulGafar; Shittu, Sola; Asishana, Justina; Duku, Joel; Oota, Linus; Okezie, Augustine; Alao, Onimisi; Onogu, Sanni; Jimoh, Adekunle; Odufowokan, 'Dare; Adedeji, Toba; Ibrahim, Rasaq; Oladele, Bisi; Otabor, Osagie; Okungbowa, Aiwerie; Nsa, Gil; Anioke, Ogo; Duruihuoma, Damian; Njoku, Chris; Nwankwo, Sunny (19 February 2023). "WHO WINS 2023 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION? | The Nation Newspaper". The Nation Newspaper. Retrieved 19 February 2023.