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2023 Kebbi State gubernatorial election

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2023 Kebbi State gubernatorial election
← 2019 18 March 2023 2027 →
Registered2,032,041
 
Nominee Nasir Idris Aminu Bande
Party APC PDP
Running mate Abubakar Umar Argungu Samaila Salihu Bui
Governor before election

Abubakar Atiku Bagudu
APC

Elected Governor

Nasir Idris
APC

The 2023 Kebbi State gubernatorial election will take place on 18 March 2023, to elect the Governor of Kebbi State, concurrent with elections to the Kebbi State House of Assembly as well as twenty-seven other gubernatorial elections and elections to all other state houses of assembly.[1][2] The election—which was postponed from its original 11 March date—will be held three weeks after the presidential election and National Assembly elections.[3] Incumbent APC Governor Abubakar Atiku Bagudu is term-limited and cannot seek re-election to a third term.

Party primaries were scheduled for between 4 April and 9 June 2022 with the Peoples Democratic Party nominating former Army major general Aminu Bande on 25 May while the All Progressives Congress nominated teachers' union leader Nasir Idris on 26 May.[4][5]

Electoral system

[edit]

The Governor of Kebbi State is elected using a modified two-round system. To be elected in the first round, a candidate must receive the plurality of the vote and over 25% of the vote in at least two-thirds of state local government areas. If no candidate passes this threshold, a second round will be held between the top candidate and the next candidate to have received a plurality of votes in the highest number of local government areas.

Background

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Kebbi State is a diverse, northwestern state with a growing economy but is facing rising insecurity and desertification. Politically, the 2019 elections confirmed the state's status as one of the most staunchly APC states in the nation as both Buhari and Atiku Bagudu won the state by wide margins and every single legislative seat on the senatorial, House of Representatives, and House of Assembly levels were carried by APC nominees.

At the beginning of his term, Atiku Bagudu said his administration would focus on economic diversification, further improving immunization levels, and infrastructure.[6] In terms of his performance, Atiku Bagudu was commended for environmental protection and agricultural development but was criticized for new revelations to his previously-known looting of state funds during the Abacha administration involving his renewed attempts to retake some of the stolen funds that had been seized and his desperate attempts to keep hold of the loot still in his possession.[7][8][9][10]

Primary elections

[edit]

The primaries, along with any potential challenges to primary results, will take place between 4 April and 3 June 2022.[2] An informal zoning gentlemen's agreement sets the Kebbi South Senatorial District to have the next governor as Kebbi South has never produced a governor. However, another interpretation of zoning based on the traditional emirates in the state would set up the Argungu, Yauri and Zuru emirates to produce the next governor as the largest Gwandu Emirate has held the office for much of the state's history.[11] However, no major party has yet formally zoned their primaries.

All Progressives Congress

[edit]

Analysts view the APC gubernatorial primary as a likely battle between the preexisting major factions within the Kebbi State APC with one faction led by outgoing governor Abubakar Atiku Bagudu and the other faction led by Kebbi Central Senator and former governor Adamu Aliero. Aliero was reportedly backing the gubernatorial candidacy of Kebbi North Senator Yahaya Abubakar Abdullahi while conflicting reports stated that Atiku Bagudu was supporting Attorney-General Abubakar Malami or former Finance Commissioner Ibrahim Muhammad Augie; an added element of the party crisis is the supposed ambition of Atiku Bagudu to run against Aliero in the Kebbi Central senatorial primary.[12][11] Tensions between the factions reached a head in late 2021 when Aliero's faction broke away and elected separate leadership to Atiku Bagudu's faction setting up a dispute over which was the legitimate party organization.[13][14][15] As Atiku Bagudu is a serving governor, his faction was recognized by the national party in February 2022 but the internal rift has remained as questions of zoning and godfather support have continued.[11] Further controversy arose when Malami officially announced his candidacy, firstly that Malami refused to resign as attorney-general in accordance with the Electoral Act and secondly when photos emerged of over two hundred luxury cars Malami gave to delegates as bribes.[16][17] However, when finally directed to resign by Buhari in May 2022, Malami instead dropped out of the gubernatorial race amid reports that he did not believe he could win the primary.[18][19]

On 20 April 2022, the APC National Executive Committee announced the party's schedule for gubernatorial primaries, setting its expression of interest form price at ₦10 million and nomination form price at ₦40 million with a 50% nomination form discount for candidates younger than 40 while women and candidates with disabilities get free nomination forms. Forms were to be sold from 26 April to 6 May until the deadline was later extended to 10 May then 12 May.[20] After the submission of nomination forms by 13 May, candidates were screened by a party committee on 14 and 15 May while 16 May was the date for the screening appeal process.[21] Ward congresses and LGA congresses were set for between 7 and 9 May to elect delegates for the primary. Candidates approved by the screening process advanced to a primary set for 26 May, in concurrence with other APC gubernatorial primaries; challenges to the result could be made the next day.[22][23][24][25]

After Malami withdrew, union leader Nasir Idris was drafted in by allies of Atiku Bagudu to run as the governor's anointed candidate instead.[26] On the primary date, the three candidates contested an indirect primary that ended with Idris emerging as the party gubernatorial nominee after results showed him winning just under 97% of the delegates' votes. In his acceptance speech, Idris thanked delegates and pledged to lead the state well while Abdullahi, who got zero votes, rejected the results as fabricated before defecting to the PDP a few weeks later.[5][27][28]

Nominated

[edit]

Eliminated in primary

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Withdrew

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Declined

[edit]

Results

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Candidates' vote share

  Nasir Idris (96.79%)
  Abubakar Gari Malam (3.21%)
APC primary results[5]
Party Candidate Votes %
APC Nasir Idris 1,055 96.79%
APC Abubakar Gari Malam 35 3.21%
APC Yahaya Abubakar Abdullahi 0 0.00%
Total votes 1,090 100.00%
Turnout 1,090 Unknown

People's Democratic Party

[edit]
On 16 March 2022, the national PDP announced its gubernatorial primaries' schedule, setting its expression of interest form price at ₦1 million and the nomination form price at ₦20 million with a 50% discount for candidates between 25 and 30. Forms were to be sold until 1 April but the party later extended the deadline four times before reaching a final deadline of 22 April. After the submission of nomination forms by 25 April, candidates were screened by a party committee on 28 April while 2 May was the rescheduled date for the screening appeal process. Ward congresses were set for 29 April and LGA congresses were rescheduled for 10 May to elect delegates for the primary.[35] Candidates approved by the screening process advanced to a primary set for 25 May, in concurrence with all other PDP gubernatorial primaries; challenges to the result could be made in the following days.[36][37]

In the five candidate primary, former Army major general Aminu Bande won by a substantial margin of about 51% of the votes cast.[4] In his acceptance speech at the primary venue in Birnin Kebbi, Bande vowed to carry the party to victory and rehabilitate the state.

Nominated

[edit]

Eliminated in primary

[edit]

Declined

[edit]

Results

[edit]

Candidates' vote share

  Aminu Bande (68.96%)
  Ibrahim Abdullahi Manga (18.45%)
  Buhari Bala (6.30%)
  Other candidates (6.29%)
PDP primary results[4]
Party Candidate Votes %
PDP Aminu Bande 471 68.96%
PDP Ibrahim Abdullahi Manga 126 18.45%
PDP Buhari Bala 43 6.30%
PDP Haruna Garba Argungu 22 3.22%
PDP Saidu Samaila Sambawa 21 3.07%
Total votes 683 100.00%
Turnout 683 Unknown

Minor parties

[edit]

Campaign

[edit]

In the wake of the primaries, mass defections riddled both major parties as aggrieved APC members led by Adamu Aliero and Yahaya Abubakar Abdullahi decamped to the PDP while the APC also wooed defectors as a campaign tactic. The Aliero vs. Bagudu dispute that dominated Kebbi APC politics in the years prior to the primaries and into the gubernatorial general election campaign was compounded by the fact that Aliero and Bagudu were running against each other for the Kebbi Central senatorial seat.[44] As the elections neared, campaigning intensified in December and January with Idris vowed to improve education and agriculture while Bande promised to combat banditry using his military experience.[45]

By February, attention largely switched to the presidential election on 25 February. In the election, Kebbi State voted for Atiku Abubakar (PDP); Abubakar won 50.1% of the vote to defeat Bola Tinubu (APC) at 44.3%. Although the close result was unsurprising, the close margin and PDP win led to increased attention on the competitiveness of the gubernatorial race. Additionally, Bagudu lost to Aliero in the senatorial race and internal APC strife continued while the PDP grew from its federal election successes and zoning dynamics.[46] The EiE-SBM forecast projected Bande to win while a Vanguard piece labeled the election as a "50-50" race.[47][48]

Projections

[edit]
Source Projection As of
Africa Elects[a][49] Lean Bande 17 March 2023
Enough is Enough-
SBM Intelligence[b][47] 		Bande 2 March 2023

Conduct

[edit]

Electoral timetable

[edit]

On 26 February 2022, the Independent National Electoral Commission released the timetable, setting out key dates and deadlines for the election.[50] Months later on 27 May 2022, INEC made a slight revision to the timetable, allowing parties extra time to conduct primaries.[51]

  • 28 February 2022 – Publication of Notice of Election
  • 4 April 2022 – First day for the conduct of party primaries
  • 9 June 2022[c] – Final day for the conduct of party primaries, including the resolution of disputes arising from them
  • 1 July 2022 – First day for submission of nomination forms to INEC via the online portal
  • 15 July 2022 – Final day for submission of nomination forms to INEC via the online portal
  • 12 October 2022 – Commencement of the official campaign period
  • 16 March 2023[d] – Final day of the official campaign period

General election

[edit]
2023 Kebbi State gubernatorial election
Party Candidate Votes %
A
AA
ADP
APP
AAC
ADC
APM
APC
APGA
BP
LP
New Nigeria Peoples Party
NRM
PDP
PRP
SDP
YPP
ZLP
Total votes 100.00%
Turnout

By senatorial district

[edit]

The results of the election by senatorial district.

Senatorial District Nasir Idris
APC 		Aminu Bande
PDP 		Others Total Valid Votes
Votes Percentage Votes Percentage Votes Percentage
Kebbi Central Senatorial District[e] TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD
Kebbi North Senatorial District[f] TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD
Kebbi South Senatorial District[g] TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD
Totals TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD

By federal constituency

[edit]

The results of the election by federal constituency.

Federal Constituency Nasir Idris
APC 		Aminu Bande
PDP 		Others Total Valid Votes
Votes Percentage Votes Percentage Votes Percentage
Aleiro/Gwandu/Jega Federal Constituency[h] TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD
Arewa/Dandi Federal Constituency[i] TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD
Argungu/Augie Federal Constituency[j] TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD
Bagudo/Suru Federal Constituency[k] TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD
Bunza/Birnin Kebbi/Kalgo Federal Constituency[l] TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD
Fakai/Sakaba/Wasagu/Danko/Zuru Federal Constituency[m] TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD
Koko-Besse/Maiyama Federal Constituency[n] TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD
Ngaski/Shanga/Yauri Federal Constituency[o] TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD
Totals TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD

By local government area

[edit]

The results of the election by local government area.

LGA Nasir Idris
APC 		Aminu Bande
PDP 		Others Total Valid Votes Turnout Percentage
Votes Percentage Votes Percentage Votes Percentage
Aleiro TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD %
Arewa Dandi TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD %
Argungu TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD %
Augie TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD %
Bagudo TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD %
Birnin Kebbi TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD %
Bunza TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD %
Dandi TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD %
Fakai TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD %
Gwandu TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD %
Jega TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD %
Kalgo TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD %
Koko/Besse TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD %
Maiyama TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD %
Ngaski TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD %
Sakaba TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD %
Shanga TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD %
Suru TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD %
Wasagu/Danko TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD %
Yauri TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD %
Zuru TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD %
Totals TBD % TBD % TBD % TBD %


See also

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Notes

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  1. ^ AfricaElects projections predict the likelihood of a candidate winning a state by categorizing a state as "Safe" for exceedingly likely, "Likely" for somewhat likely, and "Lean" for least likely. If no clear determination could be made, states are categorized as "tossups".
  2. ^ EiE-SBM projections predict which candidates will win states.
  3. ^ The original deadline was 3 June; however, INEC pushed it back to 9 June at the behest of parties.[52]
  4. ^ The original deadline was 9 March; however, INEC pushed it back to 16 March.[53]
  5. ^ Comprising the local government areas of Aliero, Birnin Kebbi, Bunza, Gwandu, Kalgo, Koko/Besse, and Maiyama.
  6. ^ Comprising the local government areas of Arewa Dandi, Argungu, Augie, Bagudo, Dandi, Jega, and Suru.
  7. ^ Comprising the local government areas of Fakai, Ngaski, Sakaba, Shanga, Wasagu/Danko, Yauri, and Zuru.
  8. ^ Comprising the local government areas of Aleiro, Gwandu, and Jega.
  9. ^ Comprising the local government area of Arewa Dandi.
  10. ^ Comprising the local government areas of Argungu and Augie.
  11. ^ Comprising the local government areas of Bagudo and Suru.
  12. ^ Comprising the local government areas of Birnin Kebbi, Bunza, and Kalgo.
  13. ^ Comprising the local government areas of Fakai, Sakaba, Wasagu/Danko, and Zuru.
  14. ^ Comprising the local government areas of Koko/Besse and Maiyama.
  15. ^ Comprising the local government areas of Ngaski, Shanga, and Yauri.

References

[edit]
  1. ^ Oyekanmi, Rotimi (26 February 2022). "It's Official: 2023 Presidential, National Assembly Elections to Hold Feb 25". INEC News. Retrieved 27 February 2022.
  2. ^ a b Jimoh, Abbas (26 February 2022). "INEC Sets New Dates For 2023 General Elections". Daily Trust. Retrieved 26 February 2022.
  3. ^ Suleiman, Qosim. "It's Official: INEC postpones Saturday's governorship, state assembly elections". Premium Times. Retrieved 15 March 2023.
  4. ^ a b c d e f g h "Gen Bande Wins Kebbi PDP Gov Primary". New Telegraph. Retrieved 9 June 2022.
  5. ^ a b c d e f "NUT President Defeats Senate Majority Leader, Clinches APC Governorship Ticket In Kebbi". Channels TV. Retrieved 9 June 2022.
  6. ^ "Gov. Bagudu sworn-in for 2nd term in office". Vanguard. Retrieved 9 April 2022.
  7. ^ "U.S. AMBASSADOR JOINS KEBBI GOVERNOR TO LAUNCH NEW PARTNERSHIP WITH WACOT RICE TO IMPROVE FOOD SECURITY". USAID. Archived from the original on 20 May 2022. Retrieved 9 April 2022.
  8. ^ Ibekwe, Nicholas. "How Buhari administration planned to transfer $110 million Abacha loot to Bagudu". Premium Times. Retrieved 9 April 2022.
  9. ^ "RANKING NIGERIAN GOVERNORS, FEBRUARY, 2020: Top 5, Bottom 5". Ripples Nigeria. Retrieved 9 April 2022. The Governor of Kebbi State, Abubakar Atiku Bagudu, makes the February 2020 bottom five on account of his involvement in the now infamous Abacha loot scandal...Bagudu, in saner climes, would have been made to face the law for his fiendish roles in helping the former military dictator loot the nation's resources.
  10. ^ Adebayo, Taiwo-Hassan. "PANDORA PAPERS: How Governor Bagudu amassed dirty billions and how he is hiding it". Premium Times. Retrieved 9 April 2022.
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  12. ^ "EXCLUSIVE: Nigerian Governor Stops Construction Project Over Rift With Senator, Puts Residents At Risk Of Floods". Sahara Reporters. Retrieved 28 January 2022.
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  17. ^ Peoples Gazette [@GazetteNGR] (May 7, 2022). "Attorney-General Abubakar Malami is seen here bragging about sharing 200 exotic cars worth over N2.7 billion last week. He also hopes to share airplanes. Months before he was appointed in 2015, Mr Malami told a Kano radio he couldn't afford N12 million to renovate his residence" (Tweet). Retrieved 15 May 2022 – via Twitter.
  18. ^ "BREAKING: Malami Withdraws From Kebbi Governorship, To Remain As Nigeria's Justice Minister, Attorney-General". Sahara Reporters. Retrieved 14 May 2022.
  19. ^ Sobechi, Leo (15 May 2022). "Malami: Divided by mirth and mischief". The Guardian. Abuja. Retrieved 16 May 2022.
  20. ^ Odunsi, Wale. "2023: APC extends sale of forms, fixes dates to elect delegates". Daily Post. Retrieved 7 May 2022.
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  22. ^ Majeed, Bakare (20 April 2022). "UPDATED: 2023: APC fixes presidential forms for N100 million, adopts indirect primaries". Premium Times. Retrieved 20 April 2022.
  23. ^ Angbulu, Stephen; Ayeni, Victor; Dada, Peter; Naku, Dennis; Ede, Raphael (21 April 2022). "Presidential primary: APC silent on zoning, Nigerians condemn N100m nomination fee". The Punch. Retrieved 21 April 2022.
  24. ^ APC Nigeria [@OfficialAPCNg] (May 11, 2022). "NEW DATES" (Tweet). Retrieved 12 May 2022 – via Twitter.
  25. ^ APC Nigeria [@OfficialAPCNg] (May 18, 2022). "ADJUSTED TIMETABLE" (Tweet). Retrieved 21 May 2022 – via Twitter.
  26. ^ Hamagam, Aliyu. "Kebbi Gov'ship: Intrigues As Malami's Withdrawal Changes Equation". Daily Trust. Retrieved 9 June 2022.
  27. ^ Aliyu, Haruna. "Primary elections: Senate leader Yahaya rejects Kebbi APC Guber result". Vanguard. Retrieved 9 June 2022.
  28. ^ Onogu, Sanni. "Senate Leader Abdullahi defects to PDP". The Nation. Retrieved 9 June 2022.
  29. ^ Maishanu, Abubakar Ahmadu. "Senate majority leader joins Kebbi governorship race". Premium Times. Retrieved 5 May 2022.
  30. ^ Aliyu, Haruna. "Amid resignation ultimatum, Malami declares for Kebbi Governorship". Vanguard. Retrieved 28 April 2022.
  31. ^ Olabimtan, Bolanle. "Malami confirms withdrawal from Kebbi governorship race". TheCable. Retrieved 14 May 2022.
  32. ^ a b c d e f Abdulrauf, Abdulrahman A. "Kebbi 2023: Between imaginary and real contenders". Blueprint Newspaper. Retrieved 21 March 2022.
  33. ^ Idris, Ahmadu Baba. "Malami aloof as Bagudu's supporters tip Gwandu for Kebbi 2023 guber". The Guardian. Retrieved 21 June 2021.
  34. ^ Dogon Daji, Kabiru. "Kebbi in quest for a new helmsman". Blueprint Newspaper. Retrieved 24 January 2022.
  35. ^ Angbulu, Stephen (21 April 2022). "2023: PDP extends sale of forms for fourth time". The Punch. Retrieved 21 April 2022.
  36. ^ Official PDP Nigeria [@OfficialPDPNig] (May 5, 2022). "2023 General Elections: @OfficialPDPNig updated Time Table and Schedule of Activities for the 2023 general elections. See below" (Tweet). Retrieved 1 May 2022 – via Twitter.
  37. ^ Ukaibe, Chibuzo. "2023: PDP Fixes New Date For Gov'ship Primaries". Leadership. Retrieved 21 May 2022.
  38. ^ Odunsi, Wale. "2023 elections: PDP can defeat APC – Bande joins Kebbi guber race". Daily Post. Retrieved 7 February 2022.
  39. ^ Oyetunji, Olawale. "2023: PDP Deputy Publicity scribe joins Kebbi guber race, promise to prioritize youths". Daily Post. Retrieved 22 March 2022.
  40. ^ a b c d e f g h i j k l m n o p q r s t u v w x y "FINAL LIST OF CANDIDATES FOR STATE ELECTIONS - Governorship & Houses of Assembly" (PDF). Independent National Electoral Commission. Retrieved 6 October 2022.
  41. ^ "PRP state chairman loses governorship ticket in Kebbi". Peoples Gazette. News Agency of Nigeria. Retrieved 6 June 2022.
  42. ^ Usman, Haruna. "Former Kebbi HOS, Udu, Emerges PRP Guber Candidate". Independent Nigeria. Retrieved 7 October 2022.
  43. ^ "AMENDMENT 3 GOVERNORSHIP" (PDF). Independent National Electoral Commission. Retrieved 19 February 2023.
  44. ^ Wurma, Kabir. "As Gale Of Defections Hit APC, PDP Camps In Kebbi State". Leadership. Retrieved 29 August 2022.
  45. ^ Wurma, Kabir. "Kebbi APC, PDP Gov'ship Candidates Adopt Grassroots Campaigns". Leadership. Retrieved 19 January 2023.
  46. ^ Maishanu, Abubakar Ahmadu. "ANALYSIS: Bagudu's performance, APC crises, other factors to decide Kebbi governorship race". Premium Times. Retrieved 18 March 2023.
  47. ^ a b "The EiE-SBM 2023 Election forecast: Diminished interest in state elections will make for poor outcomes". SBM Intelligence. Retrieved 16 March 2023.
  48. ^ "Who governs in Northern Nigeria? Factors that'll shape the races". Vanguard. Retrieved 15 March 2023.
  49. ^ Elimian, Adrian. "Nigerian Gubernatorial Elections: State Ratings". Africa Elects. Retrieved 17 March 2023.
  50. ^ Jimoh, Abbas (26 February 2022). "INEC Sets New Dates For 2023 General Elections". Daily Trust. Retrieved 26 February 2022.
  51. ^ "Schedule of Activities for 2023 General Election". ThisDay. Retrieved 12 June 2022.
  52. ^ James, Dominic. "Primaries: INEC Grants Parties Six Extra Days, Timetable Remains Unchanged". INEC News. Retrieved 28 May 2022.
  53. ^ Suleiman, Qosim. "It's Official: INEC postpones Saturday's governorship, state assembly elections". Premium Times. Retrieved 15 March 2023.
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