2023 Nigerian presidential election in Abia State
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The 2023 Nigerian presidential election in Abia State was held on 25 February 2023 as part of the nationwide 2023 Nigerian presidential election to elect the president and vice president of Nigeria.[1] Other federal elections, including elections to the House of Representatives and the Senate, were also held on the same date while state elections were held two weeks afterward on 11 March.
Peter Obi — the nominee of the Labour Party — received 88.4% of the vote and won the state by over 300,000 votes, a 82.3% margin of victory, over runner-up Atiku Abubakar of the Peoples Democratic Party at 6.1%. The other two major contenders, Bola Tinubu (All Progressives Congress) and Rabiu Kwankwaso (New Nigeria People's Party), trailed with 2.4% and 0.3%, respectively.[2]
Background
[edit]Abia State is a small, Igbo-majority southeastern state; although it is one of the most developed states in the nation, Abia has faced challenges in security as both the nationwide kidnapping epidemic and separatist violence have heavily affected the region. Originally launched ostensibly to defend ethnic Igbos from herdsmen and government attacks, the separatist organization Indigenous People of Biafra's Eastern Security Network began violently enforcing economically destructive weekly lockdowns in 2021 and swiftly were criticized for committing human rights abuses against civilians it was meant to protect.[3][4] These atrocities coupled with law enforcement brutality and herder–farmer clashes worsened the security situation prior to the election.[5][6]
Politically, the 2019 elections were categorized as a solidification of the Abia PDP's control but a slight expansion of the APC on the federal level. Statewise, incumbent PDP Governor Okezie Ikpeazu won re-election with over 60% of the vote and the vast majority of House of Assembly seats were won by the PDP. On the other hand, while the PDP was still successful federally, it lost ground only winning seven House of Representatives seats and two Senate seats compared to all nine and all three in 2015. For the presidency, Abia was easily won by PDP nominee Atiku Abubakar with about 68% but still swung towards the APC and had strikingly low turnout.
Polling
[edit]| Polling organisation/client | Fieldwork date |
Sample size |
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Others | Undecided | Undisclosed | Not voting | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tinubu APC |
Obi LP |
Kwankwaso NNPP |
Abubakar PDP | |||||||
| BantuPage | January 2023 | N/A | 1% | 83% | 3% | 3% | – | 6% | 4% | 1% |
| Nextier (Abia crosstabs of national poll) |
27 January 2023 | N/A | 1.5% | 93.8% | – | 1.5% | – | 3.1% | – | – |
| SBM Intelligence for EiE (Abia crosstabs of national poll) |
22 January-6 February 2023 | N/A | 2% | 17% | – | 2% | 2% | 78% | – | – |
Projections
[edit]| Source | Projection | As of | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Africa Elects[note 1][7] | Safe Obi | 24 February 2023 | |
| Dataphyte[note 2][8] | |||
| Tinubu: | 14.38% | 11 February 2023 | |
| Obi: | 62.79% | ||
| Abubakar: | 18.99% | ||
| Others: | 3.84% | ||
| Enough is Enough- SBM Intelligence[note 3][9] |
Obi | 17 February 2023 | |
| SBM Intelligence[note 4][10] | Obi | 15 December 2022 | |
| ThisDay[note 5][11] | |||
| Tinubu: | 10% | 27 December 2022 | |
| Obi: | 60% | ||
| Kwankwaso: | – | ||
| Abubakar: | 15% | ||
| Others/Undecided: | 15% | ||
| The Nation[note 6][12][13] | Obi | 12-19 February 2023 | |
General election
[edit]Results
[edit]| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A | Christopher Imumolen | |||
| AA | Hamza al-Mustapha | |||
| ADP | Yabagi Sani | |||
| APP | Osita Nnadi | |||
| AAC | Omoyele Sowore | |||
| ADC | Dumebi Kachikwu | |||
| APC | Bola Tinubu | |||
| APGA | Peter Umeadi | |||
| APM | Princess Chichi Ojei | |||
| BP | Sunday Adenuga | |||
| LP | Peter Obi | |||
| NRM | Felix Johnson Osakwe | |||
| New Nigeria Peoples Party | Rabiu Kwankwaso | |||
| PRP | Kola Abiola | |||
| PDP | Atiku Abubakar | |||
| SDP | Adewole Adebayo | |||
| YPP | Malik Ado-Ibrahim | |||
| ZLP | Dan Nwanyanwu | |||
| Total votes | 100.00% | |||
| Invalid or blank votes | N/A | |||
| Turnout | ||||
By senatorial district
[edit]The results of the election by senatorial district.
| Senatorial district | Bola Tinubu APC |
Atiku Abubakar PDP |
Peter Obi LP |
Rabiu Kwankwaso NNPP |
Others | Total valid votes | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Votes | % | Votes | % | Votes | % | Votes | % | Votes | % | ||
| Abia Central Senatorial District[note 7] | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD |
| Abia North Senatorial District[note 8] | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD |
| Abia South Senatorial District[note 9] | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD |
| Totals | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD |
By federal constituency
[edit]The results of the election by federal constituency.
| Federal constituency | Bola Tinubu APC |
Atiku Abubakar PDP |
Peter Obi LP |
Rabiu Kwankwaso NNPP |
Others | Total valid votes | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Votes | % | Votes | % | Votes | % | Votes | % | Votes | % | ||
| Aba North/Aba South Federal Constituency[note 10] | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD |
| Arochukwu/Ohafia Federal Constituency[note 11] | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD |
| Bende Federal Constituency[note 12] | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD |
| Isiala Ngwa North/Isiala Ngwa South Federal Constituency[note 13] | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD |
| Isuikwuato/Umunneochi Federal Constituency[note 14] | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD |
| Obingwa/Ugwunagbo/Osisioma Federal Constituency[note 15] | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD |
| Ukwa East/Ukwa West Federal Constituency[note 16] | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD |
| Umuahia North/Umuahia South/Ikwuano Federal Constituency[note 17] | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD |
| Totals | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD |
By local government area
[edit]The results of the election by local government area.
| Local government area | Bola Tinubu APC |
Atiku Abubakar PDP |
Peter Obi LP |
Rabiu Kwankwaso NNPP |
Others | Total valid votes | Turnout (%) | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Votes | % | Votes | % | Votes | % | Votes | % | Votes | % | |||
| Aba North | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % |
| Aba South | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % |
| Arochukwu | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % |
| Bende | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % |
| Ikwuano | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % |
| Isiala Ngwa North | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % |
| Isiala Ngwa South | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % |
| Isuikwuato | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % |
| Obi Ngwa | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % |
| Ohafia | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % |
| Osisioma | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % |
| Ugwunagbo | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % |
| Ukwa East | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % |
| Ukwa West | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % |
| Umuahia North | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % |
| Umuahia South | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % |
| Umu Nneochi | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % |
| Totals | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % |
See also
[edit]Notes
[edit]- ^ AfricaElects projections predict the likelihood of a candidate winning a state by categorizing a state as "Safe" for exceedingly likely, "Likely" for somewhat likely, and "Lean" for least likely. If no clear determination could be made, states are categorized as "tossups".
- ^ Dataphyte projections predict candidates' projected votal shares in each state.
- ^ EiE-SBM projections predict which candidates will win states.
- ^ SBM projections predict which candidates will win states or, if no determination could be made, categorizes states as "Too close to call" (TCC).
- ^ ThisDay projections predict candidates' projected votal shares in each state.
- ^ SBM projections predict which candidates will win states or, if no determination could be made, categorizes states as "Battlegrounds."
- ^ Comprising the local government areas of Ikwuano, Isiala Ngwa North, Isiala Ngwa South, Umuahia North, and Umuahia South.
- ^ Comprising the local government areas of Arochukwu, Bende, Isuikwuato, Ohafia, and Umu Nneochi.
- ^ Comprising the local government areas of Aba North, Aba South, Obi Ngwa, Osisioma Ngwa, Ugwunagbo, Ukwa East, and Ukwa West.
- ^ Comprising the local government areas of Aba North and Aba South.
- ^ Comprising the local government areas of Arochukwu and Ohafia.
- ^ Comprising the local government area of Bende.
- ^ Comprising the local government areas of Isiala-Ngwa North and Isiala-Ngwa South.
- ^ Comprising the local government areas of Isuikwuato and Umu-Nneochi.
- ^ Comprising the local government areas of Obi Ngwa, Osisioma Ngwa, and Ugwunagbo.
- ^ Comprising the local government areas of Ukwa East and Ukwa West.
- ^ Comprising the local government areas of Ikwuano, Umuahia North, and Umuahia South.
References
[edit]- ^ Jimoh, Abbas (26 February 2022). "INEC Sets New Dates For 2023 General Elections". Daily Trust. Retrieved 26 February 2022.
- ^ Opanuga, Jimisayo (28 February 2023). "2023 election: Obi wins in Abia, defeats Tinubu, Atiku, Kwankwaso". The Guardian Nigeria News - Nigeria and World News. Retrieved 31 August 2024.
- ^ Ayitogo, Nasir. "ANALYSIS: Despite Nnamdi Kanu's incarceration, IPOB-linked killings, attacks continue in South-east". Premium Times. Retrieved 13 March 2022.
- ^ Okoli, Anayo; Nkwopara, Chidi; Agbo, Dennis; Nwaiwu, Chimaobi; Alaribe, Ugochukwu; Okonkwo, Nwabueze; Adonu, Chinedu; Alozie, Chinonso; Odu, Ikechukwu; Oko, Steve; Ali, Uchenna. "How Monday sit-at-home is affecting South-East economy". Vanguard. Retrieved 13 March 2022.
- ^ "Nigeria: At least 115 people killed by security forces in four months in country's Southeast". Amnesty International. 5 August 2021. Retrieved 13 March 2022.
- ^ Ukpong, Cletus. "Insecurity: Abia govt accuses herders of kidnapping". Premium Times. Retrieved 13 March 2022.
- ^ Elimian, Adrian (24 February 2023). "Nigerian Presidential Election: State Ratings". Africa Elects. Retrieved 25 February 2023.
- ^ "President Tinubu: Predilections and Predictions". Substack. Dataphyte. 11 February 2023. Retrieved 11 February 2023.
- ^ "The EiE-SBM 2023 Election forecast: It all hinges on insecurity and turnout". SBM Intelligence. 17 February 2023. Retrieved 19 February 2023.
- ^ "Projection: 2023 presidential elections". SBM Intelligence. 15 December 2022. Retrieved 27 December 2022.
- ^ "THISDAY 2023 Election Centre: Why Presidential Run off is Increasingly Likely". ThisDay. 27 December 2022. Retrieved 27 December 2022.
- ^ Oladesu, Emmanuel; Alli, Yusuf; O’neil, Shola; Onu, Nwanosike; Odiegwu, Mike; Adeyemi, Kolade; Ihyongo, Fanen; Adenuga, David; Emmanuel, Uja; Alabelewe, AbdulGafar; Shittu, Sola; Asishana, Justina; Duku, Joel; Oota, Linus; Okezie, Augustine; Alao, Onimisi; Onogu, Sanni; Jimoh, Adekunle; Odufowokan, 'Dare; Adedeji, Toba; Ibrahim, Rasaq; Oladele, Bisi; Otabor, Osagie; Okungbowa, Aiwerie; Nsa, Gil; Anioke, Ogo; Duruihuoma, Damian; Njoku, Chris; Nwankwo, Sunny (12 February 2023). "Who wins 2023 presidential election?". The Nation. Retrieved 19 February 2023.
- ^ Oladesu, Emmanuel; Alli, Yusuf; O’neil, Shola; Onu, Nwanosike; Odiegwu, Mike; Adeyemi, Kolade; Ihyongo, Fanen; Adenuga, David; Emmanuel, Uja; Alabelewe, AbdulGafar; Shittu, Sola; Asishana, Justina; Duku, Joel; Oota, Linus; Okezie, Augustine; Alao, Onimisi; Onogu, Sanni; Jimoh, Adekunle; Odufowokan, 'Dare; Adedeji, Toba; Ibrahim, Rasaq; Oladele, Bisi; Otabor, Osagie; Okungbowa, Aiwerie; Nsa, Gil; Anioke, Ogo; Duruihuoma, Damian; Njoku, Chris; Nwankwo, Sunny (19 February 2023). "WHO WINS 2023 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION? | The Nation Newspaper". The Nation Newspaper. Retrieved 19 February 2023.