2023 Nigerian presidential election in Edo State
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| Registered | 2,501,081 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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The 2023 Nigerian presidential election in Edo State will be held on 25 February 2023 as part of the nationwide 2023 Nigerian presidential election to elect the president and vice president of Nigeria.[1] Other federal elections, including elections to the House of Representatives and the Senate, will also be held on the same date while state elections will be held two weeks afterward on 11 March.
Background
[edit] |
Edo State is a diverse state in the South South; politically, the state's 2019 elections were categorized as a continuation of the state's competitiveness as PDP presidential nominee Atiku Abubakar won the state by 1% and the party won two senate seats. However, the APC won five of nine House of Representatives seats and a majority in the House of Assembly. The next year, incumbent Governor Godwin Obaseki defected from the APC to the PDP before winning re-election by over 15%.
Polling
[edit]| Polling organisation/client | Fieldwork date |
Sample size |
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Others | Undecided | Undisclosed | Not voting | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tinubu APC |
Obi LP |
Kwankwaso NNPP |
Abubakar PDP | |||||||
| BantuPage | December 2022 | N/A | 3% | 64% | 5% | 5% | – | 11% | 9% | 5% |
| BantuPage | January 2023 | N/A | 15% | 56% | 0% | 5% | – | 4% | 5% | 2% |
| Nextier (Edo crosstabs of national poll) |
27 January 2023 | N/A | 2.6% | 76.9% | – | 9.0% | 1.3% | 10.3% | – | – |
| SBM Intelligence for EiE (Edo crosstabs of national poll) |
22 January-6 February 2023 | N/A | 3% | 61% | – | 10% | 2% | 23% | – | – |
Projections
[edit]| Source | Projection | As of | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Africa Elects[a][2] | Likely Obi | 24 February 2023 | |
| Dataphyte[b][3] | |||
| Tinubu: | 25.14% | 11 February 2023 | |
| Obi: | 31.46% | ||
| Abubakar: | 25.14% | ||
| Others: | 18.25% | ||
| Enough is Enough- SBM Intelligence[c][4] |
Obi | 17 February 2023 | |
| SBM Intelligence[d][5] | Obi | 15 December 2022 | |
| ThisDay[e][6] | |||
| Tinubu: | 15% | 27 December 2022 | |
| Obi: | 35% | ||
| Kwankwaso: | – | ||
| Abubakar: | 35% | ||
| Others/Undecided: | 15% | ||
| The Nation[f][7][8] | Battleground | 12-19 February 2023 | |
General election
[edit]Results
[edit]| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A | Christopher Imumolen | |||
| AA | Hamza al-Mustapha | |||
| ADP | Yabagi Sani | |||
| APP | Osita Nnadi | |||
| AAC | Omoyele Sowore | |||
| ADC | Dumebi Kachikwu | |||
| APC | Bola Tinubu | 144,471 | 24.86% | |
| APGA | Peter Umeadi | |||
| APM | Princess Chichi Ojei | |||
| BP | Sunday Adenuga | |||
| LP | Peter Obi | 331,163 | 56.97% | |
| NRM | Felix Johnson Osakwe | |||
| New Nigeria Peoples Party | Rabiu Kwankwaso | 2,743 | 0.47% | |
| PRP | Kola Abiola | |||
| PDP | Atiku Abubakar | 89,585 | 15.41% | |
| SDP | Adewole Adebayo | |||
| YPP | Malik Ado-Ibrahim | |||
| ZLP | Dan Nwanyanwu | |||
| Total votes | 100.00% | |||
| Invalid or blank votes | N/A | |||
| Turnout | ||||
By senatorial district
[edit]The results of the election by senatorial district.
| Senatorial district | Bola Tinubu APC |
Atiku Abubakar PDP |
Peter Obi LP |
Rabiu Kwankwaso NNPP |
Others | Total valid votes | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Votes | % | Votes | % | Votes | % | Votes | % | Votes | % | ||
| Edo Central Senatorial District[g] | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD |
| Edo North Senatorial District[h] | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD |
| Edo South Senatorial District[i] | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD |
| Totals | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD |
By federal constituency
[edit]The results of the election by federal constituency.
| Federal constituency | Bola Tinubu APC |
Atiku Abubakar PDP |
Peter Obi LP |
Rabiu Kwankwaso NNPP |
Others | Total valid votes | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Votes | % | Votes | % | Votes | % | Votes | % | Votes | % | ||
| Akoko-Edo Federal Constituency[j] | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD |
| Egor/Ikpoba-Okha Federal Constituency[k] | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD |
| Esan Central/Esan West/Igueben Federal Constituency[l] | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD |
| Esan North East/Esan South East Federal Constituency[m] | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD |
| Etsako East/Etsako West/Etsako Central Federal Constituency[n] | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD |
| Oredo Federal Constituency[o] | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD |
| Orhionmwon/Uhunmwonde Federal Constituency[p] | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD |
| Ovia North East/Ovia South West Federal Constituency[q] | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD |
| Owan East/Owan West Federal Constituency[r] | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD |
| Totals | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD |
By local government area
[edit]The results of the election by local government area.
| Local government area | Bola Tinubu APC |
Atiku Abubakar PDP |
Peter Obi LP |
Rabiu Kwankwaso NNPP |
Others | Total valid votes | Turnout (%) | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Votes | % | Votes | % | Votes | % | Votes | % | Votes | % | |||
| Akoko Edo | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % |
| Egor | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % |
| Esan Central | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % |
| Esan North-East | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % |
| Esan South-East | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % |
| Esan West | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % |
| Etsako Central | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % |
| Etsako East | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % |
| Etsako West | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % |
| Igueben | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % |
| Ikpoba Okha | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % |
| Oredo | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % |
| Orhionmwon | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % |
| Ovia North-East | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % |
| Ovia South-West | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % |
| Owan East | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % |
| Owan West | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % |
| Uhunmwonde | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % |
| Totals | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % | TBD | % |
See also
[edit]Notes
[edit]- ^ Africa Elects projections predict the likelihood of a candidate winning a state by categorizing a state as "Safe" for exceedingly likely, "Likely" for somewhat likely, and "Lean" for least likely. If no clear determination could be made, states are categorized as "tossups".
- ^ Dataphyte projections predict candidates' projected votal shares in each state.
- ^ EiE-SBM projections predict which candidates will win states.
- ^ SBM projections predict which candidates will win states or, if no determination could be made, categorizes states as "Too close to call" (TCC).
- ^ ThisDay projections predict candidates' projected votal shares in each state.
- ^ SBM projections predict which candidates will win states or, if no determination could be made, categorizes states as "Battlegrounds."
- ^ Comprising the local government areas of Esan Central, Esan North-East, Esan South-East, Esan West, and Igueben.
- ^ Comprising the local government areas of Akoko Edo, Etsako Central, Etsako East, Etsako West, Owan East, and Owan West.
- ^ Comprising the local government areas of Egor, Ikpoba Okha, Oredo, Orhionmwon, Ovia North-East, Ovia South-West, and Uhunmwonde.
- ^ Comprising the local government area of Akoko Edo.
- ^ Comprising the local government areas of Egor and Ikpoba Okha.
- ^ Comprising the local government areas of Esan Central, Esan West, and Igueben.
- ^ Comprising the local government areas of Esan North-East and Esan South-East.
- ^ Comprising the local government areas of Etsako Central, Etsako East, and Etsako West.
- ^ Comprising the local government areas of Oredo.
- ^ Comprising the local government areas of Orhionmwon and Uhunmwonde.
- ^ Comprising the local government areas of Ovia North-East and Ovia South-West.
- ^ Comprising the local government areas of Owan East and Owan West.
References
[edit]- ^ Jimoh, Abbas (26 February 2022). "INEC Sets New Dates For 2023 General Elections". Daily Trust. Retrieved 26 February 2022.
- ^ Elimian, Adrian (24 February 2023). "Nigerian Presidential Election: State Ratings". Africa Elects. Retrieved 25 February 2023.
- ^ "President Tinubu: Predilections and Predictions". Substack. Dataphyte. 11 February 2023. Retrieved 11 February 2023.
- ^ "The EiE-SBM 2023 Election forecast: It all hinges on insecurity and turnout". SBM Intelligence. 17 February 2023. Retrieved 19 February 2023.
- ^ "Projection: 2023 presidential elections". SBM Intelligence. 15 December 2022. Retrieved 27 December 2022.
- ^ "THISDAY 2023 Election Centre: Why Presidential Run off is Increasingly Likely". ThisDay. 27 December 2022. Retrieved 27 December 2022.
- ^ Oladesu, Emmanuel; Alli, Yusuf; O’neil, Shola; Onu, Nwanosike; Odiegwu, Mike; Adeyemi, Kolade; Ihyongo, Fanen; Adenuga, David; Emmanuel, Uja; Alabelewe, AbdulGafar; Shittu, Sola; Asishana, Justina; Duku, Joel; Oota, Linus; Okezie, Augustine; Alao, Onimisi; Onogu, Sanni; Jimoh, Adekunle; Odufowokan, 'Dare; Adedeji, Toba; Ibrahim, Rasaq; Oladele, Bisi; Otabor, Osagie; Okungbowa, Aiwerie; Nsa, Gil; Anioke, Ogo; Duruihuoma, Damian; Njoku, Chris; Nwankwo, Sunny. "Who wins 2023 presidential election?". The Nation. Retrieved 19 February 2023.
- ^ Oladesu, Emmanuel; Alli, Yusuf; O’neil, Shola; Onu, Nwanosike; Odiegwu, Mike; Adeyemi, Kolade; Ihyongo, Fanen; Adenuga, David; Emmanuel, Uja; Alabelewe, AbdulGafar; Shittu, Sola; Asishana, Justina; Duku, Joel; Oota, Linus; Okezie, Augustine; Alao, Onimisi; Onogu, Sanni; Jimoh, Adekunle; Odufowokan, 'Dare; Adedeji, Toba; Ibrahim, Rasaq; Oladele, Bisi; Otabor, Osagie; Okungbowa, Aiwerie; Nsa, Gil; Anioke, Ogo; Duruihuoma, Damian; Njoku, Chris; Nwankwo, Sunny (19 February 2023). "WHO WINS 2023 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION? | The Nation Newspaper". The Nation Newspaper. Retrieved 19 February 2023.