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45th Canadian federal election

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45th Canadian federal election
← 2021 On or before October 20, 2025 (2025-10-20)1 46th →
343 seats in the House of Commons
172 seats needed for a majority
Opinion polls
 
Justin Trudeau in May 2023.jpg
Pierre Poilievre in 2023 (edited).jpg
Yves-François Blanchet Entrevue no smile 2023 (cropped-2).png
Leader Justin Trudeau Pierre Poilievre Yves-François Blanchet
Party Liberal Conservative Bloc Québécois
Leader since April 14, 2013 September 10, 2022 January 17, 2019
Leader's seat Papineau Carleton Beloeil—Chambly
Last election 160[b] seats, 32.62% 119 seats, 33.74% 32 seats, 7.64%
Current seats 153 119 33
Seats needed Increase 19 Increase 53 N/A[a]
 
Jagmeet Singh in Brantford 2022 2 (cropped3).jpg
Elizabeth May Juin 2024 (cropped).jpg
Maxime Bernier portrait 2023.png
Leader Jagmeet Singh Elizabeth May Maxime Bernier
Party New Democratic Green People's
Leader since October 1, 2017 November 19, 2022 September 14, 2018
Leader's seat Burnaby South Saanich—Gulf Islands N/A[c]
Last election 25 seats, 17.82% 2 seats, 2.33% 0 seats, 4.94%
Current seats 25 2 0
Seats needed Increase 147 Increase 170 Increase 172
Incumbent Prime Minister

Justin Trudeau
Liberal



The 45th Canadian federal election will take place on or before October 20, 2025, to elect members of the House of Commons to the 45th Canadian Parliament. The date of the vote is determined by the fixed-date provisions of the Canada Elections Act, which requires federal elections to be held on the third Monday in October in the fourth calendar year after the polling day of the previous election, though a current government bill proposes to postpone the date to October 27, 2025 to avoid conflicting with Diwali.[1] In addition to the statutory fixed election date provisions, Canada has a constitutional requirement specified in both section 50 of the Constitution Act, 1867 and section 4 of the Canadian Charter of Rights and Freedoms that elections for the House of Commons must be called no more than five years after the writs for the preceding election are returned.

The election may occur before the scheduled date if the governor general dissolves Parliament on the recommendation of the prime minister for a snap election, or if the House of Commons passes a motion of no confidence in the government. Early elections are more likely to occur during minority governments because the prime minister does not control a majority in the House of Commons.[2][3][4]

This will be the first election to use a new 343-seat electoral map based on the 2021 Canadian census. New electoral boundaries for each of the ten provinces were finalized between February 14 and July 8, 2023,[5][6][7] and officially proclaimed on September 22, 2023.[8] The previous 338-seat electoral map would have been used if the election had been called before April 23, 2024.[9][8][10]

Background

[edit]

The 2021 Canadian federal election, held on September 20 that year, saw little change from the preceding 2019 election.[11] The incumbent Liberal Party, led by Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, failed to win a parliamentary majority or the popular vote, but remained the party with the most seats and remained in office as a minority government. The Conservatives won the popular vote and continued as the Official Opposition.[12][d] On September 27, Annamie Paul resigned as the Green Party leader,[13] which came into effect on November 10.[14]

Date of the election

[edit]

The election is scheduled to take place on October 20, 2025, under the fixed-date provisions of the Canada Elections Act, which requires federal elections to be held on the third Monday in October in the fourth calendar year after the polling day of the previous election.[15]

Proposed movement of fixed election date

[edit]

On March 20, 2024, the government introduced the Electoral Participation Act, which included an amendment to the Canada Elections Act that would change the fixed election date to October 27, 2025, to avoid conflicting with the Hindu festival of Diwali, as well as municipal elections in Alberta.[16][1] Moving the election date to October 27, 2025, would also allow 80 members of parliament who were elected at the 2019 election to qualify for a pension that they would not receive if they fail to achieve reelection, though the government denies this motivated the proposed change.[17]

Political parties and standings

[edit]

The table below lists parties represented in the House of Commons after the 2021 federal election and their current standings. Kevin Vuong was elected as a Liberal, having been disavowed by the party too late to alter his affiliation on the ballot, and sits as an independent.[18]

Name Ideology Position Leader 2021 result Current standing
Votes (%) Seats
Liberal Liberalism
Social liberalism 		Centre to centre-left Justin Trudeau
32.62%
160 / 338
153 / 338
Conservative Conservatism
Economic liberalism 		Centre-right to right-wing Pierre Poilievre
33.74%
119 / 338
119 / 338
Bloc Québécois Quebec nationalism
Quebec sovereigntism
Social democracy 		Centre-left Yves-François Blanchet
7.64%
32 / 338
33 / 338
New Democratic Social democracy
Democratic socialism 		Centre-left to left-wing Jagmeet Singh
17.82%
25 / 338
25 / 338
Green Green politics Elizabeth May
2.33%
2 / 338
2 / 338
Independents N/A
0.19%
0 / 338
4 / 338
Vacant N/A
2 / 338

Electoral system

[edit]

Redistribution

[edit]
Main article: 2022 Canadian federal electoral redistribution

The Constitution Act, 1867, requires that federal electoral districts undergo a redistribution following each decennial Canadian census.[19] Using the 2021 Canadian census population results, the 2022 redistribution began in October 2021, and was completed in September 2023.[20]

On October 15, 2021, the chief electoral officer announced that based on the formula in the Constitution Act, 1867 as then in force, the allocation would result in an increase to 342 seats.[21] This included a reduction of Quebec’s allocation from 78 to 77 seats. The government tabled legislation on March 24, 2022, to prevent Quebec (or any other province) from losing any seats relative to the number of seats it was apportioned in 2012 redistribution.[22][23] The Preserving Provincial Representation in the House of Commons Act amended rule 2 of subsection 51(1) of the Constitution Act, 1867, commonly known as the "Grandfather Clause".[24][25] The bill passed the House of Commons on June 15,[26] the Senate on June 21,[27] and received royal assent on June 23, 2022.[28] The chief electoral officer announced the new allocation of seats on July 8, 2022, which would result in an increase to 343 seats.[29]

Pursuant to the Electoral Boundaries Readjustment Act as amended, ten federal electoral boundary commissions were established, one for each province, on November 1, 2021.[30] The boundary-drawing process commenced upon the release of census data in February 2022. Quebec’s commission adjusted its work to be based on a 78-seat allocation in July 2022. The respective commissions completed their work and finalized new electoral boundary sets on a rolling basis, beginning with the Newfoundland and Labrador and Prince Edward Island commissions on February 14, 2023,[5][6] and finishing with the Ontario commission on July 8, 2023.[7] The chief electoral officer then used the final reports of the electoral boundary commissions to formalize a representation order, which was proclaimed on September 22, 2023.[8]

The changes to federal electoral district boundaries took effect on April 23, 2024.[9][21][8] If the election had been called before then, it would have occurred under the previous electoral district boundaries, which had been in effect since the 2015 federal election.[31][32]

Allocation of seats in the House of Commons under the Preserving Provincial Representation in the House of Commons Act
Province or territory Representation orders Average population
per electoral district 		Change
2013 2023
Ontario 121 122 116,590 1 Increase
Quebec 78 78 108,998 Steady
British Columbia 42 43 116,300 1 Increase
Alberta 34 37 115,206 3 Increase
Manitoba 14 14 95,868 Steady
Saskatchewan 14 14 80,893 Steady
Nova Scotia 11 11 88,126 Steady
New Brunswick 10 10 77,561 Steady
Newfoundland and Labrador 7 7 72,935 Steady
Prince Edward Island 4 4 38,583 Steady
Northwest Territories 1 1 41,070 Steady
Nunavut 1 1 36,858 Steady
Yukon 1 1 40,232 Steady
Canada 338 343 107,848 5 Increase

Transposed 2021 results

[edit]
The transposed results of the 2021 election, if they had taken place under the 2023 Representation Order.

This will be the first election contested under the new electoral districts established in the 2022 redistribution. Consequently, media outlets tend to report seat gains and losses as compared to notional results. These are the results if all votes cast in 2021 were unchanged, but regrouped by new electoral district boundaries, as published by Elections Canada.[33]

2021 results transposed onto 2023 boundaries
Party MPs
2021 actual result 2021 notional result Change
Liberal 160 157 Decrease 3
Conservative 119 126 Increase 7
Bloc Québécois 32 34 Increase 2
New Democratic 25 24 Decrease 1
Green 2 2 Steady
Total seats 338 343 5 Increase

Incumbents not running for re-election

[edit]

As of October 2024, 38 MPs have announced they will not run in the 45th federal election.

Number of MPs standing down by party affiliation
Party MPs standing down
2021 election[e] Current
Liberal 23 22
Conservative 7 6
New Democratic 5 5
Bloc Québécois 4 4
Independent 0 2
Total 39
Member of Parliament Electoral district Province or territory Date announced
  Ron Liepert[34] Calgary Signal Hill Alberta February 17, 2023
  Wayne Long[35] Saint John—Rothesay New Brunswick March 14, 2023
  Randall Garrison[36] Esquimalt—Saanich—Sooke British Columbia April 27, 2023
  Ken Hardie[37] Fleetwood—Port Kells British Columbia May 26, 2023
  Lloyd Longfield[38] Guelph Ontario June 28, 2023
  Helena Jaczek[39] Markham—Stouffville Ontario July 25, 2023
  Joyce Murray[40] Vancouver Quadra British Columbia July 25, 2023
  Omar Alghabra[41] Mississauga Centre Ontario July 25, 2023
  Alain Rayes[42] Richmond—Arthabaska Quebec September 11, 2023
  Richard Cannings[43] South Okanagan—West Kootenay British Columbia September 12, 2023
  Anthony Rota[44] Nipissing—Timiskaming Ontario September 18, 2023
  Emmanuel Dubourg[45] Bourassa Quebec November 1, 2023
  Nathaniel Erskine-Smith[46] Beaches—East York Ontario December 7, 2023
  Tony Van Bynen[47] Newmarket—Aurora Ontario March 11, 2024
  Ed Fast[48] Abbotsford British Columbia March 14, 2024
  Charlie Angus[49] Timmins—James Bay Ontario April 4, 2024
  Carol Hughes[50] Algoma—Manitoulin—Kapuskasing Ontario April 4, 2024
  Rachel Blaney[50] North Island—Powell River British Columbia April 4, 2024
  Gary Vidal[51] Desnethé—Missinippi—Churchill River Saskatchewan April 23, 2024
  Colin Carrie[52][53] Oshawa Ontario April 24, 2024
  Pam Damoff[54] Oakville North—Burlington Ontario May 1, 2024
  John McKay[55] Scarborough—Guildwood Ontario June 20, 2024
  Ken McDonald[56] Avalon Newfoundland and Labrador July 2, 2024
  Robert Kitchen[57] Souris—Moose Mountain Saskatchewan July 8, 2024
  Michael McLeod[58] Northwest Territories Northwest Territories July 10, 2024
  Seamus O'Regan[59] St. John's South—Mount Pearl Newfoundland and Labrador July 18, 2024
  Francis Drouin[60] Glengarry—Prescott—Russell Ontario July 25, 2024
  Karen Vecchio[61] Elgin—Middlesex—London Ontario July 30, 2024
  René Arseneault[62] Madawaska—Restigouche New Brunswick August 17, 2024
  Jean-Denis Garon[63] Mirabel Quebec August 30, 2024
  Yves Robillard[64] Marc-Aurèle-Fortin Quebec September 16, 2024
  Pablo Rodriguez[65] Honoré-Mercier Quebec September 19, 2024
  Monique Pauzé[66] Repentigny Quebec October 8, 2024
  Dan Vandal[67] Saint Boniface—Saint Vital Manitoba October 17, 2024
  Carla Qualtrough[68] Delta British Columbia October 17, 2024
  Filomena Tassi[69] Hamilton West—Ancaster—Dundas Ontario October 18, 2024
  Marie-Claude Bibeau[70] Compton—Stanstead Quebec October 21, 2024
  Louise Chabot[71] Thérèse-De Blainville Quebec October 21, 2024
  Stéphane Bergeron[72] Montarville Quebec October 24, 2024

Incumbents who lost nomination races

[edit]
Member of Parliament Electoral district Province or territory Date announced
  Gerald Soroka[73] Yellowhead Alberta June 22, 2024

Timeline

[edit]
See also: 44th Canadian Parliament and By-elections to the 44th Canadian Parliament

2021

[edit]
  • September 27 – Annamie Paul announced her intent to resign as leader of the Green Party.[74]
  • November 10 – Paul formally submitted her resignation, and ended her membership in the party.[14] The Green Party accepted her resignation a few days later.[75][76]
  • November 15 – Senator Denise Batters launched a petition to review the leadership of Erin O'Toole.[77] Party president Robert Batherson decided the petition was not in order.[77] The following day, Batters was removed from the conservative caucus.[78]
  • November 24 – Amita Kuttner was appointed as Green Party interim leader.[79][80]
  • December 5 – The People's Party concluded its leadership review of Maxime Bernier. He was confirmed and continued as leader.[81][82]

2022

[edit]

2023

[edit]

2024

[edit]

Opinion polls

[edit]
Main article: Opinion polling for the 45th Canadian federal election
Opinion polling for
Canadian federal elections
2008
Opinion polls
2011
Opinion polls • By constituency
2015
Opinion polls • By constituency
2019
Opinion polls • By constituency
2021
Opinion polls • By constituency
Next election
Opinion polls
Evolution of voting intentions according to polls conducted during the pre-campaign period of the 45th Canadian federal election, graphed from the data in the table below. Trendlines are 30-poll local regressions, with polls weighted by proximity in time and a logarithmic function of sample size. 95% confidence ribbons represent uncertainty about the trendlines, not the likelihood that actual election results would fall within the intervals.

See also

[edit]

Notes

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  1. ^ Though parties registered with Elections Canada can field candidates in any riding they wish, the Bloc Québécois has never fielded candidates outside of Quebec (78 seats). Thus it is impossible for the party to gain a majority in Parliament.
  2. ^ Includes Kevin Vuong, who appeared on the ballot as a Liberal but was disavowed by the party during the campaign. He has not been seated as a member of the Liberal caucus.
  3. ^ MP for Beauce until being defeated in the 2019 election. Contested the by-election in Portage–Lisgar, lost.
  4. ^ While formal results show the Liberals winning or leading in 160 seats, those totals include Kevin Vuong, who was disavowed during the campaign by his party, and has since sat as an Independent in the House of Commons.
  5. ^ Party affiliation of retiring MPs at the time of the 2021 federal election.

References

[edit]
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  6. ^ a b Federal Electoral Boundaries Commission for Prince Edward Island. "Redistribution process timeline in PEI".
  7. ^ a b Federal Electoral Boundaries Commission for Ontario. "Redistribution process timeline in Ontario".
  8. ^ a b c d Elections Canada. "Implementation of New Federal Electoral Boundaries".
  9. ^ a b Federal Electoral Boundaries Commission. "Timeline for the Redistribution of Federal Electoral Districts".
  10. ^ Proclamation declaring the Representation Order to be in Force effective on the First dissolution of Parliament that Occurs after April 22, 2024, SI/2023-57 , reported in the Canada Gazette, Part II, Vol. 157, Extra, September 27, 2023
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