2023 Portage—Lisgar federal by-election
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Riding of Portage—Lisgar | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| Turnout | 45.47% | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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A by-election was held in the federal riding of Portage—Lisgar in Manitoba, Canada on June 19, 2023, following the resignation of Conservative MP Candice Bergen.[1]
The by-election was held on the same day as three others; Notre-Dame-de-Grâce—Westmount, Oxford and Winnipeg South Centre.[2] It resulted in the landslide victory of Conservative Branden Leslie, in what many analysts described as a test for both the Tories and Maxime Bernier's People's Party of Canada, the latter of which got 21% of the vote in this riding in 2021, their best nationwide.[3][4] After the by-election, Bernier announced his intentions to run in the riding again in the next federal election, though acknowledging that the result had not been desirable for him.[5]
Background
[edit]Constituency
[edit]Portage—Lisgar is a large rural constituency in Southern Manitoba. It includes the cities of Portage la Prairie, Winkler, and Morden, and the towns of Carman, Morris and Altona. Lisgar is named after John Young, 1st Baron Lisgar who was Canadas 2nd Governor General from 1869 to 1872. The riding has voted for centre-right parties since its inception in 1997.
Representation
[edit]The riding of Portage—Lisgar was vacated on February 28, 2023, following the resignation of Conservative MP Candice Bergen.[6][7] Bergen, a cabinet minister in the government of Stephen Harper and the interim leader of the Conservative Party and Leader of the Opposition from February to September 2022, had held the seat since 2008.[8]
Candidates
[edit]Conservative
[edit]Bergen's former campaign manager Branden Leslie[9] defeated Rejeanne Caron, the party's 2019 candidate in Saint Boniface—Saint Vital and 2021 candidate in Elmwood—Transcona; Winkler resident Don Cruickshank,[10] Morden-Winkler MLA and former Progressive Conservative Party of Manitoba cabinet minister Cameron Friesen;[11] and Lawrence Toet, the MP for Elmwood—Transcona from 2011 to 2015 for the Conservative nomination.[12][13][14] Liz Reimer, a Progressive Conservative Party of Manitoba staffer and former assistant to Friesen, and Josh Okello were previously running for the nomination, however after Friesen announced his campaign they withdrew their bids in order to run for the Progressive Conservative nomination in Morden-Winkler.[15][16][17] Laurence Toet was endorsed by the constituency's former MP Charles Mayer.[18]
Others
[edit]Maxime Bernier, who is the former MP for Beauce and the current leader of the People's Party of Canada, announced on May 12, 2023, that he would run for the seat.[19][20][21]
The Liberals announced Kerry Smith as their candidate on May 13.[22] She is the senior director of the Manitoba Métis Foundation.[23]
The New Democratic Party announced their candidate as teacher Lisa Tessier-Burch.[24]
The Green Party of Manitoba selected Nicolas Geddert, a community organizer and volunteer as their candidate. He was an unsuccessful candidate for leader of the Green Party of Manitoba in early 2023.[25] In 2022, he was the candidate in the Fort Whyte by-election.[26]
Polling
[edit]| Polling Firm | Last Date of Polling |
Link | CPC | PPC | LPC | NDP | GPC | Others | Undecided | Margin of Error[1] |
Sample Size[2] |
Polling Method[3] |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mainstreet Research | June 14, 2023 | HTML | 41 | 26 | 14 | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | ±5.2 pp | 362 | IVR |
| 43 | 27 | 15 | 10 | 4 | 2 | — |
Results
[edit]| Canadian federal by-election, June 19, 2023: Portage—Lisgar Resignation of Candice Bergen | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | ||||
| Conservative | Branden Leslie | 20,250 | 64.95 | +12.43 | ||||
| People's | Max Bernier | 5,352 | 17.16 | −4.42 | ||||
| Liberal | Kerry Smith | 2,666 | 8.55 | −2.40 | ||||
| New Democratic | Lisa Tessier-Burch | 2,208 | 7.08 | −6.30 | ||||
| Green | Nicolas Geddert | 704 | 2.26 | – | ||||
| Total valid votes | 31,180 | 99.40 | ||||||
| Total rejected ballots | 188 | 0.60 | −0.15 | |||||
| Turnout | 31,368 | 45.47 | −20.77 | |||||
| Eligible voters | 68,988 | |||||||
| Conservative hold | Swing | +8.42 | ||||||
| Source: Elections Canada[27] | ||||||||
2021 result
[edit]| 2021 Canadian federal election: Portage—Lisgar | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | Expenditures | |||
| Conservative | Candice Bergen | 23,819 | 52.52 | –18.28 | $75,005.66 | |||
| People's | Solomon Wiebe | 9,790 | 21.58 | +18.97 | $12,104.29 | |||
| New Democratic | Ken Friesen | 6,068 | 13.38 | +4.70 | $2,822.40 | |||
| Liberal | Andrew Carrier | 4,967 | 10.95 | +0.24 | $14,348.06 | |||
| Christian Heritage | Jerome Dondo | 712 | 1.57 | –0.36 | $7,509.16 | |||
| Total valid votes/expense limit | 45,356 | 99.25 | – | $111,667.24 | ||||
| Total rejected ballots | 341 | 0.75 | +0.13 | |||||
| Turnout | 45,697 | 66.24 | –0.40 | |||||
| Eligible voters | 68,991 | |||||||
| Conservative hold | Swing | –18.62 | ||||||
| Source: Elections Canada[28] | ||||||||
References
[edit]- ^ "Candice Bergen, former interim Conservative leader, resigning from Parliament". CTVNews. February 1, 2023. Retrieved February 2, 2023.
- ^ "4 federal byelections set for June in Quebec, Ontario and Manitoba | Globalnews.ca". Global News. Retrieved May 31, 2023.
- ^ Kives, Bartley (June 18, 2023). "Manitoba byelections matter, but not merely in terms of who wins". CBC.
- ^ "Portage--Lisgar (Manitoba)". Elections Canada.
- ^ ""I will be your PPC candidate in Portage-Lisgar at the next general election," says Bernier in post results remarks". SteinbachOnline. Retrieved July 25, 2024.
- ^ "Candice Bergen, former interim Conservative leader, is resigning from Parliament". thestar.com. February 1, 2023. Retrieved February 1, 2023.
- ^ "Profile - Bergen, Candice". Library of Parliament. Retrieved March 2, 2023.
- ^ "Manitoba's Bergen a logical choice for Conservatives, but not controversy-free: political scientist - Winnipeg | Globalnews.ca". Global News. Retrieved May 31, 2023.
- ^ "Branden Leslie wins Conservative nomination for Portage-Lisgar". Winnipeg. May 1, 2023. Retrieved May 31, 2023.
- ^ "Don Cruickshank steps up to start line in race to represent Portage-Lisgar in Ottawa". PembinaValleyOnline. Retrieved February 14, 2023.
- ^ "'An opportunity': Manitoba finance minister quits for federal run". Winnipeg. January 27, 2023. Retrieved January 29, 2023.
- ^ Sanders, Carol (January 24, 2023). "Former PC staffer plans to take run at Portage-Lisgar seat". The Winnipeg Free Press. Retrieved January 26, 2023.
- ^ "With former Conservative MP Toet entering the nomination contest, field of high-profile candidates in Portage-Lisgar, Man., is growing". The Hill Times. Retrieved February 4, 2023.
- ^ "Branden Leslie wins Conservative nomination for Portage-Lisgar". PembinaValleyOnline. Retrieved May 1, 2023.
- ^ "Reimer revises political bid, now seeking Morden-Winkler PC nomination". PembinaValleyOnline. Retrieved April 29, 2023.
- ^ "Kenyan-born candidate brings international perspective to Conservative contest in Portage-Lisgar". PembinaValleyOnline. Retrieved February 22, 2023.
- ^ "Josh Okello gives up federal aspirations to run for Morden-Winkler MLA". PembinaValleyOnline. Retrieved April 29, 2023.
- ^ "Long serving MP for Portage-Lisgar endorses Toet for Conservative Nomination". thegraphicleader. Retrieved May 31, 2023.
- ^ "Maxime Bernier will run in the Portage-Lisgar by-election". PembinaValleyOnline. Retrieved May 12, 2023.
- ^ Kitching, Chris (May 10, 2023). "PPC leader 'looking forward to the future' with eye on possible Portage—Lisgar bid". Winnipeg Free Press. Retrieved May 11, 2023.
- ^ "People's Party of Canada Leader Maxime Bernier to run in Manitoba byelection". CBC News. May 10, 2023. Retrieved May 11, 2023.
- ^ https://twitter.com/liberal_party/status/1657553485443870720
- ^ "Kerry Smith running as Liberal candidate in Portage-Lisgar byelection". Winnipeg. May 29, 2023. Retrieved May 31, 2023.
- ^ "PCI Hosts LGBT+ Conference". PortageOnline. Retrieved May 31, 2023.
- ^ "Manitoba Greens announce slate of leadership candidates - Winnipeg | Globalnews.ca". CJOB. Retrieved June 6, 2023.
- ^ "Manitoba byelection the first since Heather Stefanson became Tory leader, premier - Winnipeg | Globalnews.ca". Global News. Retrieved June 6, 2023.
- ^ "June 19, 2023, by-elections—Official Voting Results". Elections Canada. Retrieved November 13, 2023.
- ^ "Official Voting Results". Elections Canada. Retrieved June 2, 2023.