2024 LaSalle—Émard—Verdun federal by-election
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Riding of LaSalle—Émard—Verdun | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| Turnout | 39.66% ( 20.94) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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A by-election was held in the federal riding of LaSalle—Émard—Verdun in Quebec, Canada, on September 16, 2024, following the resignation of incumbent Liberal MP David Lametti.
While the riding was considered a "stronghold" for the Liberals, the by-election was expected by some to be a close race between the Liberals and the NDP, who ran "well known" Montreal city councillor Craig Sauvé.[1] The by-election was expected to be a three-way marginal with the Bloc Québécois also having strong support in the riding.[2]
The by-election was held on the same day as one in Elmwood—Transcona in Manitoba and was considered a test for the government of Justin Trudeau.[3] After results were announced, Trudeau said that his party had "a lot of work to do".[4][5]
Background
[edit]The riding of LaSalle—Émard—Verdun was vacated on February 1, 2024, following the resignation of Liberal MP David Lametti.[6] Lametti, who previously served as Minister of Justice and Attorney General in the government of Justin Trudeau, won the seat in 2015.
Constituency
[edit]The constituency is an urban Francophone riding located in the southwestern part of Montreal containing parts of the boroughs of Le Sud-Ouest, Verdun and LaSalle.[7] The riding has been held by the Liberals since its creation in 2015. Prior to 2015, this area of the city was split into two different ridings, with Verdun being in one riding (Jeanne-Le Ber from 2004 to 2016) and the LaSalle and Ville-Émard areas being in another (LaSalle—Émard from 1988 to 2015). Both ridings went NDP during the "orange wave" of the 2011 Canadian federal election. Prior to 2011, the LaSalle—Émard area has been reliably Liberal, while Verdun has been less-so, with the Bloc holding it from 2006 to 2011.
Candidates
[edit]The total of 91 candidates broke the record for the longest list of candidates in a federal by-election.[8]
On July 19, Montreal city councillor Laura Palestini was selected by the Liberals as their candidate over others seeking the nomination[9] such as Eddy Kara, a political strategist,[10] Christopher Baenninger, Quebec Liberal candidate in Sainte-Marie–Saint-Jacques in 2022 and Saint-Henri–Sainte-Anne in 2023,[11] and Lori Morrison, Electoral Division 1 Commissioner of the Lester B. Pearson School Board.[11] The party approached Charles Milliard, president of the Fédération des chambres de commerce du Québec, to run as their candidate in the by-election. He ultimately declined to run, preferring running in the 2025 Quebec Liberal Party leadership election.[12]
On March 28, Craig Sauvé, independent city councillor for the district of Saint-Henri—Little-Burgundy—Pointe-Saint-Charles announced that he was standing for nomination for the New Democratic Party's candidate.[13] He was officially nominated as the NDP candidate on April 28.[14]
On July 19, the Conservative Party announced that their candidate would be Louis Ialenti, a small business owner. He was previously the Conservative candidate for Saint-Léonard—Saint-Michel in 2021.[15]
The Bloc Québécois candidate was Louis-Philippe Sauvé, a party staffer and the former communications and administration coordinator at the Institute for Research in Contemporary Economics.[16]
Gregory Yablunovsky was the PPC candidate. He was previously the party's candidate in Saint-Laurent in 2021 and La Prairie in 2019.[17]
On May 27, it was announced that Jency Mercier had won the nomination race for the Green Party.[18]
Alain Paquette was the Christian Heritage Party candidate.[19]
On July 17, the Rhinoceros Party announced that party leader Sébastien CoRhino would be the candidate.[20]
The Longest Ballot Committee announced that they are targeting the LaSalle—Émard—Verdun by-election[21] resulting in 77 independent candidates affiliated to the organization running in this seat.[22]
On August 14, the newly formed Canadian Future Party announced their candidate in the election, Mark Khoury.[23]
Campaign
[edit]It was reported that Liberal campaign materials omitted the image of Justin Trudeau, unlike other parties which used their party leader's picture.[24] The unpopularity of the federal government has been a consideration.[25] Senior Liberal figures considered the by-election a "must-win".[26]
Opinion polls
[edit]| Polling Firm | Last Date of Polling |
Link | LPC | BQ | NDP | CPC | PPC | Green | Margin of Error[1] |
Sample Size[2] |
Polling Method[3] |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mainstreet Research | September 7-9, 2024 | [27] | 24.1 | 29.6 | 23.0 | 7.3 | — | — | ±4.7 pp | 443 | IVR |
| Mainstreet Research | July 9, 2024 | [28] | 29 | 26 | 25 | 14 | 1 | 3 | ±5.4 pp | 329 | IVR |
| Election 2021 | September 20, 2021 | 42.93 | 22.09 | 19.36 | 7.45 | 3.38 | 3.04 | — | 47,360 | — |
Results
[edit]11,000 people voted in advance polling.[29]
| Canadian federal by-election, September 16, 2024: LaSalle—Émard—Verdun Resignation of David Lametti | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | ||||
| Bloc Québécois | Louis-Philippe Sauvé | 8,884 | 28.02 | +5.93 | ||||
| Liberal | Laura Palestini | 8,636 | 27.23 | -15.69 | ||||
| New Democratic | Craig Sauvé | 8,262 | 26.05 | +6.70 | ||||
| Conservative | Louis Ialenti | 3,676 | 11.59 | +4.14 | ||||
| Green | Jency Mercier | 567 | 1.79 | -1.25 | ||||
| Independent | Tina Jiu Ru Zhu | 197 | 0.62 | |||||
| People's | Gregory Yablunovsky | 156 | 0.49 | -2.89 | ||||
| Canadian Future | Mark Khoury | 103 | 0.32 | |||||
| Independent | Pierre Samson | 78 | 0.25 | |||||
| Rhinoceros | Sébastien CoRhino | 67 | 0.21 | |||||
| Christian Heritage | Alain Paquette | 54 | 0.17 | |||||
| Marijuana | Steve Berthelot | 52 | 0.16 | |||||
| Independent | Lanna Palsson | 49 | 0.15 | |||||
| No Affiliation | Myriam Beaulieu | 47 | 0.15 | |||||
| Marxist–Leninist | Normand Chouinard | 41 | 0.13 | |||||
| Independent | Marie-Hélène LeBel | 39 | 0.12 | |||||
| Independent | Line Bélanger | 31 | 0.10 | |||||
| Independent | John "The Engineer" Turmel | 25 | 0.08 | |||||
| Independent | Laura Vegys | 22 | 0.07 | |||||
| No Affiliation | Manon Marie Lili Desbiens | 21 | 0.07 | |||||
| Independent | Alain Bourgault | 20 | 0.06 | |||||
| Independent | Peter Barry Clarke | 20 | 0.06 | |||||
| Independent | Julie St-Amand | 20 | 0.06 | |||||
| Independent | Charles Lemieux | 19 | 0.06 | |||||
| Independent | Mark Moutter | 19 | 0.06 | |||||
| Independent | Guillaume Paradis | 18 | 0.06 | |||||
| Independent | Felix-Antoine Hamel | 17 | 0.05 | |||||
| Independent | Hans Armando Vargas | 17 | 0.05 | |||||
| Independent | Alex Banks | 16 | 0.05 | |||||
| Independent | Marc Corriveau | 16 | 0.05 | |||||
| Independent | Martin Croteau | 16 | 0.05 | |||||
| Independent | Matéo Martin | 16 | 0.05 | |||||
| Independent | Daniel St-Pierre | 16 | 0.05 | |||||
| Independent | Nassim Barhoumi | 15 | 0.05 | |||||
| Independent | Daniel Gagnon | 15 | 0.05 | |||||
| Independent | Agnieszka Marszalek | 15 | 0.05 | |||||
| Independent | Marie-Eve Vermette | 15 | 0.05 | |||||
| Independent | Mylène Bonneau | 14 | 0.04 | |||||
| Independent | Jacques-Eric Guy | 14 | 0.04 | |||||
| No Affiliation | Fang Hu | 14 | 0.04 | |||||
| Independent | Alain Lamontagne | 14 | 0.04 | |||||
| Independent | Connie Lukawski | 14 | 0.04 | |||||
| Independent | Glen MacDonald | 14 | 0.04 | |||||
| Independent | Martin Acetaria Caesar Jubinville | 13 | 0.04 | |||||
| Independent | Andrew Davidson | 13 | 0.04 | |||||
| Independent | Ryan Huard | 13 | 0.04 | |||||
| Independent | Réal BatRhino Martel | 12 | 0.04 | |||||
| Independent | John Dale | 12 | 0.04 | |||||
| Independent | John Francis O'Flynn | 12 | 0.04 | |||||
| Independent | Mário Stocco | 12 | 0.04 | |||||
| Independent | Christian Baril | 11 | 0.03 | |||||
| Independent | Michael Bednarski | 11 | 0.03 | |||||
| Independent | Samuel Ducharme | 11 | 0.03 | |||||
| Independent | Alexandra Engering | 11 | 0.03 | |||||
| Independent | Antony George Ernest Marcil | 11 | 0.03 | |||||
| Independent | Yusuf Nasihi | 11 | 0.03 | |||||
| Independent | Jaël Champagne Gareau | 10 | 0.03 | |||||
| Independent | Danny Légaré | 10 | 0.03 | |||||
| Independent | Timothy Schoen | 10 | 0.03 | |||||
| Independent | Mark Dejewski | 9 | 0.03 | |||||
| Independent | Krzysztof Krzywinski | 9 | 0.03 | |||||
| Independent | Judy D. Hill | 8 | 0.03 | |||||
| Independent | Grayson Pollard | 8 | 0.03 | |||||
| Independent | Jeani Boudreault | 7 | 0.02 | |||||
| Independent | Donovan Eckstrom | 7 | 0.02 | |||||
| No Affiliation | Katy Le Rougetel | 7 | 0.02 | |||||
| Independent | Lorant Polya | 7 | 0.02 | |||||
| Independent | Adam Smith | 6 | 0.02 | |||||
| Independent | Gavin Vanderwater | 6 | 0.02 | |||||
| Independent | Jordan Wong | 6 | 0.02 | |||||
| Independent | Dji-Pé Frazer | 5 | 0.02 | |||||
| Independent | Lajos Polya | 5 | 0.02 | |||||
| Independent | Roger Sherwood | 5 | 0.02 | |||||
| Independent | Michael Skirzynski | 5 | 0.02 | |||||
| Independent | Pascal St-Amand | 5 | 0.02 | |||||
| Independent | Elliot Wand | 5 | 0.02 | |||||
| Independent | Gerrit Dogger | 4 | 0.01 | |||||
| Independent | Harout Manougian | 4 | 0.01 | |||||
| Independent | Patrick Strzalkowski | 4 | 0.01 | |||||
| Independent | Darcy Justin Vanderwater | 4 | 0.01 | |||||
| Independent | Erle Stanley Bowman | 3 | 0.01 | |||||
| Independent | Anthony Hamel | 3 | 0.01 | |||||
| Independent | Blake Hamilton | 3 | 0.01 | |||||
| Independent | Spencer Rocchi | 3 | 0.01 | |||||
| Independent | Benjamin Teichman | 3 | 0.01 | |||||
| Independent | Winston Neutel | 2 | 0.01 | |||||
| Independent | Julian Selody | 2 | 0.01 | |||||
| Independent | David Erland | 1 | 0.00 | |||||
| Independent | Wallace Richard Rowat | 1 | 0.00 | |||||
| Independent | Ysack Dupont | 0 | 0.00 | |||||
| Independent | Daniel Stuckless | 0 | 0.00 | |||||
| Total valid votes | 31,711 | |||||||
| Total rejected ballots | ||||||||
| Turnout | 31,711 | 39.66 | -20.94 | |||||
| Eligible voters | 79,966 | |||||||
| Bloc Québécois gain from Liberal | Swing | +10.81 | ||||||
2021 results
[edit]| 2021 Canadian federal election: LaSalle—Émard—Verdun | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | Expenditures | |||
| Liberal | David Lametti | 20,330 | 42.93 | -0.60 | $55,842.59 | |||
| Bloc Québécois | Raphaël Guérard | 10,461 | 22.09 | -2.00 | $9,992.28 | |||
| New Democratic | Jason De Lierre | 9,168 | 19.36 | +2.89 | $2,674.57 | |||
| Conservative | Janina Moran | 3,530 | 7.45 | +0.41 | $714.88 | |||
| People's | Michel Walsh | 1,600 | 3.38 | +2.44 | $2,295.27 | |||
| Green | Sarah Carter | 1,439 | 3.04 | -3.80 | $0.00 | |||
| Free | Pascal Antonin | 636 | 1.34 | N/A | $2.73 | |||
| Communist | J.P. Fortin | 196 | 0.41 | N/A | $0.00 | |||
| Total valid votes/expense limit | 47,360 | 97.86 | – | $110,554.58 | ||||
| Total rejected ballots | 1,036 | 2.14 | +0.52 | |||||
| Turnout | 48,396 | 60.59 | -3.78 | |||||
| Registered voters | 79,869 | |||||||
| Liberal hold | Swing | +0.70 | ||||||
| Source: Elections Canada[30] | ||||||||
See also
[edit]References
[edit]- ^ "Montreal byelection expected to be a tight race between Liberals, NDP: analyst". CTV News. 29 July 2024. Retrieved 2 August 2024.
- ^ Tasker, John Paul; Boudjikanian, Raffy (September 6, 2024). "Trudeau's Liberals face another big test in Montreal byelection - NDP, Bloc Québécois hoping voters tired of Trudeau will help them take long-time Liberal seat". CBC News.
- ^ "Trudeau déclenche deux élections partielles, dont une dans LaSalle—Émard—Verdun". La Presse (in Canadian French). 2024-07-28. Retrieved 2024-08-03.
- ^ Tasker, John Paul (2024-09-17). "Trudeau says Liberals have 'a lot of work to do' after his party loses another byelection". CBC News. Retrieved 2024-09-17.
- ^ Rana, Uday (2024-09-17). "'The Liberals are done': What will the Montreal byelection loss mean for Trudeau?". Global News. Retrieved 2024-09-17.
- ^ "Former justice minister David Lametti resigning as Liberal MP to join law firm". The Province. Retrieved January 25, 2024.
- ^ "Canada election results: LaSalle–Émard–Verdun | Globalnews.ca". Global News. Retrieved 2024-08-03.
- ^ "LaSalle-Émard-Verdun riding breaks record for longest list of candidates in federal byelection | Watch News Videos Online". Global News. Retrieved 2024-09-11.
- ^ "Montreal city councillor to represent Liberals in byelection". CBC News. 19 July 2024. Retrieved 19 July 2024.
- ^ Saba, Michel (23 July 2024). "Decision to parachute Trudeau's choice into Montreal byelection shocks would-be candidates". Montreal Gazette. The Canadian Press. Retrieved 24 July 2024.
- ^ a b Labbé, Jérôme (19 July 2024). "Le PLC recrute une conseillère municipale pour la partielle dans LaSalle–Émard–Verdun". Radio-Canada. Retrieved 19 July 2024.
- ^ Thomas Laberge (August 13, 2024). "Élection partielle dans LaSalle—Émard—Verdun | Milliard a « considéré » puis « refusé » de se lancer pour le PLC". La Presse (in French). Retrieved August 25, 2024.
- ^ @CraigSauve (March 28, 2024). "Grosse annonce aujourd'hui ! 🧡 Merci tout le monde pour les très nombreux messages de soutien ! 🙏 // Big announcement today! 🧡 Thank you for the many messages of support! 🙏 #polcan #cdnpoli #polmtl" (Tweet) – via Twitter.
- ^ "Lasalle--Émard--Verdun NDP Nomination Meeting". New Democratic Party of Canada. Retrieved 12 April 2024.
- ^ Serebrin, Jacob (19 July 2024). "Liberals, Conservatives select candidates for Montreal byelection". Montreal Gazette. Postmedia Network. Retrieved 19 July 2024.
- ^ Séguin, Charles (2024-07-28). "Deux élections partielles fédérales auront lieu le 16 septembre". Radio-Canada (in French). Retrieved 2024-07-31.
- ^ "Gregory Yablunovsky". People's Party of Canada. Retrieved 12 April 2024.
- ^ "Jency Mercier to run in LaSalle—Émard—Verdun". Green Party of Canada. 27 May 2024. Retrieved 28 May 2024.
- ^ "Alain Paquette - LaSalle—Émard—Verdun". Christian Heritage Party of Canada. Retrieved 19 July 2024.
- ^ "The people of LaSalle - Ville Émard - Verdun have endorsed Sébastien CoRhino as their candidate for the soon to be announced by-election". Facebook. Rhinoceros Party. 17 July 2024. Retrieved 19 July 2024.
- ^ Bryan Passifiume (July 16, 2024). "Long-ballot protesters try to snarl another byelection after breaking record in Toronto—St. Paul's". National Post. Retrieved August 25, 2024.
- ^ Audrey Sanikopoulos (August 27, 2024). "Protestation contre le système électoral: 91 candidats inscrits pour l'élection partielle de LaSalle-Émard-Verdun". Le Journal de Montréal (in French). Retrieved September 8, 2024.
- ^ Nick Murray (August 14, 2024). "Canadian Future Party launches, will field candidates in upcoming byelections". CBC News. Retrieved August 25, 2024.
- ^ Forrest, Maura (September 5, 2024). "No photos of Trudeau on campaign signs in Montreal riding ahead of byelection Other major party campaign signs feature photos of their leaders". CBC News.
- ^ Madoc-Jones, Gareth; Patterson, Kelsey (2024-08-31). "Montreal byelection: what's next for Trudeau if Liberals lose?". CityNews Montreal. Retrieved 2024-09-11.
- ^ "Liberals face must-win by-election in Montreal as they try to hold onto their base". The Globe and Mail. 2024-09-11. Retrieved 2024-09-11.
- ^ "Bloc ahead in crucial Montreal byelection, according to poll". CTV News Montreal. 2024-09-12. Retrieved 2024-09-14.
- ^ @CanadianPolling (July 11, 2024). "LaSalle-Emard-Verdun Byelection Polling" (Tweet) – via Twitter.
- ^ mporco (2024-09-10). "LaSalle–Émard–Verdun byelection: 11,000 vote in advance polling". CityNews Montreal. Retrieved 2024-09-11.
- ^ "Official Voting Results — LaSalle—Émard—Verdun". Elections Canada. Retrieved 31 August 2024.