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2024 Toronto—St. Paul's federal by-election

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2024 Toronto—St. Paul's federal by-election
← 2021 June 24, 2024 (2024-06-24) 45th →
Riding of Toronto—St. Paul's
Turnout43.52%
  First party Second party Third party
 
LPC
NDP
Candidate Don Stewart Leslie Church Amrit Parhar
Party Conservative Liberal New Democratic
Popular vote 15,565 14,932 4,073
Percentage 42.11% 40.40% 11.02%
Swing Increase 16.81 pp Decrease 8.82 pp Decrease 5.81 pp
Historical Results in Toronto-St. Paul's and St. Paul's
MP before election

Carolyn Bennett
Liberal

Elected MP

Don Stewart
Conservative

A by-election was held in the federal riding of Toronto—St. Paul's in Ontario, Canada on June 24, 2024, following the resignation of incumbent Liberal MP Carolyn Bennett.

The race was considered by some as a "referendum" on the premiership of Prime Minister Justin Trudeau.[1][2] The election was won by Conservative Party candidate Don Stewart, making him the first Conservative MP since 1993 to represent the riding. The byelection had notably higher turnout than other contests to the 44th Canadian Parliament and garnered national attention; a poll from Abacus Data in mid-July suggested that 63% of Canadians nationwide were aware of the outcome of this byelection, along with 70% of Liberal supporters.[3] This resulted in a decline of confidence in Justin Trudeau among some Liberal caucus members and party supporters.[4][5]

Background

[edit]

The riding of Toronto—St. Paul's was vacated on January 16, 2024, following the resignation of Liberal MP Carolyn Bennett.[6][7] Bennett, most recently the Minister of Mental Health and Addictions and Associate Minister of Health in the government of Justin Trudeau, had held the seat since 1997.[8] The race was considered by some as a "referendum" on the premiership of Trudeau.[9][10]

Constituency

[edit]

Prior to the by-election, Toronto—St. Paul's was considered a safe Liberal seat in Midtown, Toronto.[11] It had been held by the Liberals since the 1993 federal election.[12] The Government of Canada announced measures to protect the by-election from foreign interference.[13]

Candidates

[edit]

The Conservative Party nominated Don Stewart on January 24. He works for the Canadian Investment Regulatory Organization.[14][15] Stewart campaigned on the main tenets of the Conservative Party platform under Pierre Poilievre, including crime and support for Israel.[16]

Running for the Liberal nomination was Leslie Church, former chief of staff to Chrystia Freeland.[17] She later received formal approval to run for Liberal nomination in Toronto—St. Paul's in April 2024.[18] She ran against Emma Richardson, a senior advisor with Global Affairs Canada's United Nations division.[19] The Liberal nomination was held on May 1 with Church winning the nomination.[20][21] In 2020, Church agreed to an ethics screen for being married to lobbyist "Sheamus Murphy..(who is) registered to lobby the Liberal government in relation to several major sectors with active policy files, including broadcasting, energy and pharmaceutical companies that are working on a COVID-19 vaccine."[22]

Other prospective candidates for the Liberal nomination who declined to run, included former Toronto city councillor Josh Colle; former Ontario MPP Eric Hoskins, who represented the area provincially from 2009 to 2018 and previously served in the provincial cabinets of Dalton McGuinty and Kathleen Wynne, including as Minister of Health and Long-Term Care from 2014 to 2018; and Toronto city councillor Josh Matlow, who has represented the area municipally since 2010; Matlow ultimately decided not to run.[17][23][24] With his riding set to merge with Scarborough Centre at the next election, Don Valley East MP Michael Coteau was seen as a potential candidate, in order to avoid a nomination battle with fellow Liberal MP Salma Zahid; Coteau ultimately declined to run.[23][25]

The Rhinoceros Party announced that Sean Carson would be the candidate on January 13.[26]

The NDP announced on April 17 that Amrit Parhar would be the candidate. She works as the Director of Programs at the Institute for Change Leaders, an organization that was founded by Toronto mayor, Olivia Chow.[27] It was previously reported two days earlier by The Hill Times that MPP for Toronto—St. Paul's, Jill Andrew was considering seeking the nomination.[28]

On May 17, the Centrist Party announced Ali Mohiuddin as their candidate.[29]

On May 24, the Green Party announced that Christian Cullis, a constituent coordinator for Ward 11 city councillor Dianne Saxe, would be their candidate.[30] Emma Richardson, who previously lost the Liberal nomination, also sought the Green Party nomination.[31]

On May 28, the People's Party announced that Dennis Wilson would be their candidate.[32]

The Longest Ballot Committee, a political movement focused on electoral reform in opposition to first-past-the-post-voting, and supporting proportional representation,[33] targeted this by-election.[34] This yielded a record 84 candidates, breaking the previous record of 48 set in the Winnipeg South Centre by-election of June 19, 2023.[35] The resulting ballot papers were 90 centimetres (35 in) long, requiring temporary changes to the Elections Act due to their unprecedented size.[36] One candidate, Félix-Antoine Hamel, did not receive any votes, and is believed to be the first candidate to receive zero votes in a federal election in Canadian history. He could not vote for himself, as he did not live in the riding.[37]

Opinion polls

[edit]

No public opinion polls were released before election day. The day after the election, Mainstreet Research released a poll they conducted during the writ period. They did not release the poll during the writ period due to a lack of confidence in the sample.[38]

Evolution of voting intentions at riding level
Polling firm Last day
of survey 		Source CPC LPC NDP GPC PPC Other Undecided ME Sample
By-election 2024 June 24, 2024 42.11 40.40 11.02 2.86 0.64 2.97 — — 36,962
Mainstreet June 2024 [39] 41 39 11 4 2 2 11 — 256
Election 2021 September 20, 2021 25.30 49.22 16.83 5.99 2.67 — — — 53,698

Results

[edit]
Ballot paper for the by-election
Canadian federal by-election, June 24, 2024: Toronto—St. Paul's
Resignation of Carolyn Bennett
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Conservative Don Stewart 15,565 42.11 +16.81
Liberal Leslie Church 14,932 40.40 -8.82
New Democratic Amrit Parhar 4,073 11.02 -5.81
Green Christian Cullis 1,057 2.86 -3.13
People's Dennis Wilson 238 0.64 -2.02
Independent Jonathan Schachter 97 0.26
Independent Mário Stocco 82 0.22
Marxist–Leninist Meñico Turcotte 59 0.16
Rhinoceros Sean Carson 51 0.14
Independent Thibaud Mony 51 0.14
Independent Glen MacDonald 42 0.11
Independent Mélodie Anderson 39 0.11
Independent Demetrios Karavas 37 0.10
No Affiliation Stephen Davis 36 0.10
Independent Jordan Wong 31 0.08
Marijuana Danny Légaré 30 0.08
Independent Alex Banks 27 0.07
Centrist Ali Mohiuddin 26 0.07
Independent Jaël Champagne Gareau 23 0.06
Independent Michael Bednarski 18 0.05
Independent John Dale 18 0.05
Independent Pierre Larochelle 17 0.05
Independent Joshua Bram Hieu Pham 17 0.05
Independent Marie-Hélène LeBel 16 0.04
Independent Guillaume Paradis 16 0.04
Independent Daniel Andrew Graham 13 0.04
Independent Pierre Granger 13 0.04
Independent Julie St-Amand 13 0.04
Independent Loren Hicks 12 0.03
Independent Matéo Martin 12 0.03
Independent Blake Hamilton 11 0.03
Independent Line Bélanger 10 0.02
Independent Charles Currie 10 0.03
Independent Cory Deville 10 0.03
Independent Alexandra Engering 10 0.03
Independent Daniel Stuckless 10 0.03
Independent Erle Stanley Bowman 9 0.02
Independent Anthony Hamel 9 0.02
Independent Pascal St-Amand 9 0.02
Independent Sébastien CoRhino 8 0.02
Independent Mark Dejewski 8 0.02
Independent Daniel Gagnon 8 0.02
Independent Agnieszka Marszalek 8 0.02
Independent Olivier Renaud 8 0.02
Independent Patrick Strzalkowski 8 0.02
Independent Donald Gagnon 7 0.02
Independent Benjamin Teichman 7 0.02
Independent MarthaLee Aykroyd 6 0.02
Independent Myriam Beaulieu 6 0.02
Independent Kubera Desai 6 0.02
Independent Donovan Eckstrom 6 0.02
Independent Kevin Krisa 6 0.02
Independent Lorant Polya 6 0.02
Independent Roger Sherwood 6 0.02
Independent Elliot Wand 6 0.02
Independent Michal Wieczorek 6 0.02
Independent Maxime Boivin 5 0.01
Independent Martin Acetaria Caesar Jubinville 5 0.01
Independent Jean-Denis Parent Boudreault 4 0.01
Independent Léthycia-Félix Corriveau 4 0.01
Independent Ysack Dupont 4 0.01
Independent Dji-Pé Frazer 4 0.01
Independent Zornitsa Halacheva 4 0.01
Independent Alain Lamontagne 4 0.01
Independent Renée Lemieux 4 0.01
Independent Danimal Preston 4 0.01
Independent Spencer Rocchi 4 0.01
Independent Yogo Shimada 4 0.01
Independent Darcy Vanderwater 4 0.01
Independent Mylène Bonneau 3 0.01
Independent Guillaume Gagnier-Michel 3 0.01
Independent Kerri Hildebrandt 3 0.01
Independent Krzysztof Krzywinski 3 0.01
Independent Connie Lukawski 3 0.01
Independent Wallace Richard Rowat 3 0.01
Independent Gavin Vanderwater 3 0.01
Independent Alain Bourgault 2 0.01
No Affiliation Manon Marie Lili Desbiens 2 0.01
Independent Gerrit Dogger 2 0.01
Independent Samuel Ducharme 2 0.01
Independent Yusuf Kadir Nasihi 2 0.01
Independent Winston Neutel 2 0.01
Independent Jacques Saintonge 2 0.01
Independent Felix-Antoine Hamel 0 0.00
Total valid votes 36,962
Total rejected ballots
Turnout 43.52 -21.96
Eligible voters 84,934
Conservative gain from Liberal Swing +12.76

2021 result

[edit]
2021 Canadian federal election: Toronto—St. Paul's
Party Candidate Votes % ±% Expenditures
Liberal Carolyn Bennett 26,429 49.22 -5.09 $88,807.52
Conservative Stephanie Osadchuk 13,587 25.30 +3.69 $26,751.24
New Democratic Sidney Coles[40] 9,036 16.83 +1.05 $31,250.09
Green Phil De Luna 3,214 5.99 -0.77 $30,817.63
People's Peter Remedios 1,432 2.67 +1.12 $1,412.77
Total valid votes/Expense limit 53,698 98.93 – $112,245.61
Total rejected ballots 580 1.07 +0.43
Turnout 54,278 65.48 -4.91
Eligible voters 82,891
Liberal hold Swing -4.39
Source: Elections Canada[41]

See also

[edit]

References

[edit]
  1. ^ Tasker, John Paul (June 20, 2024). "Toronto voters say federal byelection is a referendum on Justin Trudeau's future". CBC. Archived from the original on June 20, 2024. Retrieved June 20, 2024.
  2. ^ MacCharles, Tonda (June 15, 2024). "This isn't just another byelection in Toronto — it might reveal the future for Justin Trudeau and Pierre Poilievre. Here's what's at stake". Toronto Star. Archived from the original on June 21, 2024. Retrieved June 20, 2024.
  3. ^ Coletto, David (July 14, 2024). "Abacus Data Poll: Liberals trail Conservatives by 20 as Public Mood Sours". Abacus Data.
  4. ^ "Liberal MP Wayne Long explains why he's calling on Trudeau to step down". The Globe and Mail. June 29, 2024. Retrieved July 19, 2024.
  5. ^ Talbot, Michael (June 28, 2024). "'We need new leadership': Pressure mounts for Trudeau to step down". CityNews Toronto. Archived from the original on July 20, 2024. Retrieved July 19, 2024.
  6. ^ Rabson, Mia (December 12, 2023). "Carolyn Bennett stepping down as Liberal MP for Toronto-St. Paul's after 26 years". The Canadian Press. Archived from the original on December 16, 2023. Retrieved December 22, 2023.
  7. ^ "The Hon. Carolyn Bennett, P.C., M.P." Library of Parliament. Archived from the original on May 27, 2022. Retrieved January 16, 2024.
  8. ^ "Liberal minister Carolyn Bennett announces she will not stand for re-election". CTV News. Ottawa. The Canadian Press. July 24, 2023. Archived from the original on August 3, 2023. Retrieved May 24, 2024.
  9. ^ Tasker, John Paul (June 20, 2024). "Toronto voters say federal byelection is a referendum on Justin Trudeau's future". CBC News. Archived from the original on June 20, 2024. Retrieved June 20, 2024.
  10. ^ MacCharles, Tonda (June 15, 2024). "This isn't just another byelection in Toronto — it might reveal the future for Justin Trudeau and Pierre Poilievre. Here's what's at stake". Toronto Star. Retrieved June 20, 2024.
  11. ^ "Federal byelection announced for June 24 in Toronto St. Paul's riding". CTV News. The Canadian Press. May 19, 2024. Archived from the original on June 4, 2024. Retrieved June 4, 2024.
  12. ^ Lamba, Abhiraj (May 22, 2024). "Trudeau announces date for Toronto—St. Paul's byelection". Toronto Star. Archived from the original on June 4, 2024. Retrieved June 4, 2024.
  13. ^ "Government of Canada announces measures to protect Toronto-St. Paul's by-election from foreign interference". www.canada.ca. May 21, 2024. Archived from the original on May 24, 2024. Retrieved May 24, 2024.
  14. ^ Conservative Party of Canada [@CPC_HQ] (February 15, 2024). "Welcome your Toronto—St. Paul's candidate" (Tweet). Retrieved April 18, 2024 – via Twitter.
  15. ^ "Nomination Contest Database". Elections Canada. Retrieved April 17, 2024.
  16. ^ "Conservative surge combined with ballot confusion could crack a Liberal stronghold in Toronto byelection". CTVNews. June 21, 2024. Archived from the original on June 26, 2024. Retrieved June 25, 2024.
  17. ^ a b Rana, Abbas; Jeffery, Stephen (December 18, 2023). "Toronto-St. Paul's byelection could be 'first test' of Jewish voters' reaction to Canada's UN vote on Israel-Hamas war, say political insiders". The Hill Times. Archived from the original on December 21, 2023. Retrieved December 22, 2023.
  18. ^ Vigliotti, Marco (April 22, 2024). "Leslie Church receives formal approval to run for Liberal nomination in Toronto-St. Paul's: sources". iPolitics. Archived from the original on April 22, 2024. Retrieved April 25, 2024.
  19. ^ Vigliotti, Marco (April 25, 2024). "Leslie Church expected to easily win Liberal nomination in Toronto-St. Paul's on Tuesday: sources". iPolitics. Archived from the original on April 25, 2024. Retrieved April 25, 2024.
  20. ^ Duguid, Terry; Martinez Ferrada, Soraya. "Liberal Nomination Meeting – Toronto—St. Paul's". Liberal Party of Canada. Archived from the original on April 25, 2024. Retrieved April 25, 2024.
  21. ^ "Liberal Party of Canada announces Leslie Church as Team Trudeau candidate for Toronto–St. Paul's" (Press release). Toronto, ON: Liberal Party of Canada. May 1, 2024. Archived from the original on May 2, 2024. Retrieved May 1, 2024.
  22. ^ Curry, Bill (November 10, 2020). "Chrystia Freeland's policy adviser agrees to ethics screen related to lobbyist spouse". The Globe and Mail. Archived from the original on June 23, 2024. Retrieved June 23, 2024.
  23. ^ a b Vigliotti, Marco (January 25, 2024). "Liberals still considering candidates for Toronto-St. Paul's byelection". iPolitics. Archived from the original on January 25, 2024. Retrieved January 26, 2024.
  24. ^ Matlow, Josh [@JoshMatlow] (February 23, 2024). "After a lot of consideration, I've decided not to run for parliament at this point in my life. I'm excited about this new chapter at city hall, and my focus remains on our city. My family is rooted in Toronto and my daughter will only have one childhood, which I'm not prepared…"" (Tweet) – via Twitter.
  25. ^ Vigliotti, Marco (January 19, 2024). "Coteau won't run in Toronto-St. Paul's byelection". iPolitics. Archived from the original on January 26, 2024. Retrieved January 26, 2024.
  26. ^ Parti Rhinocéros Party (January 13, 2024). "Candidate announcement for by-elections in Durham and Toronto St. Paul !!!". Facebook. Archived from the original on May 24, 2024. Retrieved January 22, 2024.
  27. ^ Toronto-St. Paul's NDP [@stpaulsndp] (April 17, 2024). "We are so proud to announce Amrit Parhar as our nomination candidate for the upcoming by-election in TSP!" (Tweet). Retrieved April 17, 2024 – via Twitter.
  28. ^ Rana, Abbas (April 15, 2024). "Poor polling numbers, NDP MPP's rumoured candidacy, and Mideast conflict turns Toronto-St. Paul's, Ont., byelection into tight three-way race, say Liberal MPs". The Hill Times. Archived from the original on April 27, 2024. Retrieved April 27, 2024.
  29. ^ Centrist Party of Canada [@CentristCa] (May 17, 2024). "Ali Mohiuddin is the nomination candidate of the #Centrist Party for Toronto St. Paul's riding By-election" (Tweet). Archived from the original on May 17, 2024. Retrieved May 17, 2024 – via Twitter.
  30. ^ "Christian Cullis to run in Toronto-St Paul's" (Press release). Green Party of Canada. May 24, 2024. Archived from the original on May 25, 2024. Retrieved May 25, 2024.
  31. ^ "Emma Richardson for Toronto—St. Paul's". Archived from the original on May 15, 2024. Retrieved May 23, 2024.
  32. ^ Bernier, Maxime [@MaximeBernier] (May 28, 2024). "If you live in Toronto, support our PPC candidate Dennis Wilson!" (Tweet). Retrieved May 28, 2024 – via Twitter.
  33. ^ Tasker, John Paul (June 25, 2024). "Conservatives win longtime Liberal stronghold Toronto-St. Paul's in shock byelection result". CBC News. Archived from the original on July 2, 2024. Retrieved June 25, 2024.
  34. ^ Passifiume, Bryan (December 27, 2023). "Long ballot activists planning to make short work of Toronto byelection". National Post.
  35. ^ "List of candidates: Toronto--St. Paul's (Ontario) By-Election (Monday, June 24, 2024)". Elections Canada. June 3, 2024.
  36. ^ Major, Darren (June 14, 2024). "Record 84 candidates on a near metre-long ballot in upcoming byelection". Canadian Broadcasting Corporation. Archived from the original on June 24, 2024. Retrieved June 24, 2024.
  37. ^ Major, Darren (June 27, 2024). "Meet the first federal candidate in Canadian history to lose an election with zero votes". Canadian Broadcasting Corporation. Archived from the original on June 27, 2024. Retrieved June 27, 2024.
  38. ^ "All eyes on Toronto-St. Paul's". Archived from the original on June 26, 2024. Retrieved August 13, 2024.
  39. ^ @quito_maggi (June 25, 2024). "Here's that @MainStResearch poll we did after advance polls" (Tweet) – via Twitter.
  40. ^ "Toronto NDP candidate resigns after discovery of controversial social media posts". CP24. September 15, 2021.
  41. ^ "Official Voting Results". Elections Canada. Retrieved June 21, 2024.
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