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2023 Manitoba general election

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2023 Manitoba general election
← 2019 October 3, 2023 44th →
57 seats of the Legislative Assembly of Manitoba
29 seats are needed for a majority
Turnout55.29% Increase
  First party Second party Third party
 
Ambassador David L. Cohen Meet with Wab Kinew F8VGCCiagAA9BS4 (cropped).jpg
Heather Stefanson Consulate Winnipeg Independence Day Celebration 2022 (cropped).jpg
Dougald_Lamont,_Manitoba_Liberal_Leader.jpg
Leader Wab Kinew Heather Stefanson Dougald Lamont
Party New Democratic Progressive Conservative Liberal
Leader since September 16, 2017 October 30, 2021 October 21, 2017
Leader's seat Fort Rouge Tuxedo St. Boniface (lost re-election)
Last election 18 seats, 31.38% 36 seats, 47.07% 3 seats, 14.48%
Seats before 18 35 3
Seats won 34 22 1
Seat change Increase 16 Decrease 13 Decrease 2
Popular vote 221,695 203,350 51,634
Percentage 45.63% 41.86% 10.63%
Swing Increase 14.25pp Decrease 5.21pp Decrease 3.85pp
Popular vote by riding. As this is an FPTP election, seat totals are not determined by popular vote, but instead via results by each riding. Riding names are listed on the bottom.
Premier before election

Heather Stefanson
Progressive Conservative

Premier after election

Wab Kinew
New Democratic

The 2023 Manitoba general election was held on October 3, 2023, to elect 57 members to the Legislative Assembly of Manitoba. The incumbent Progressive Conservative Party of Manitoba, led by Premier of Manitoba Heather Stefanson, had attempted to win a third term in government, having previously won the 2016 and 2019 elections under the leadership of Brian Pallister. The New Democratic Party of Manitoba, led by Wab Kinew, formed a majority government, defeating the two-term Progressive Conservative government. Following the election, Kinew became the first First Nations person to become premier of a Canadian province.

Background

[edit]

Under Manitoba's Elections Act, a general election must be held no later than the first Tuesday of October in the fourth calendar year following the previous election.[1] As the previous election was held in 2019, the latest possible date for the election was October 3, 2023, which was the official election date.[2] The election was held under first-past-the-post voting.

On August 10, 2021, incumbent premier Brian Pallister announced that he would not seek re-election and resigned shortly after. Members of the Progressive Conservative Party of Manitoba elected Heather Stefanson to succeed Premier Kelvin Goertzen, who served as interim leader of the party after Pallister's departure.[3][4] During the previous legislature, the opposition NDP had gained a polling lead over the PCs. However, the lead tightened during the campaign period.

Campaign

[edit]

Stefanson primarily campaigned on reducing the cost of living for Manitobans, crime, and parental rights in education.[5][6] Kinew led the NDP into the election.[7] The NDP campaign focused on healthcare reform and balancing the province's budget.[8][9] Dougald Lamont led the Liberals and Janine Gibson led the Green Party, having been elected leader in March.

The PCs promoted the film industry in the province and in 2022 helped WestJet launch direct flights from Los Angeles to Winnipeg.[10] The New Democrats focused on healthcare with a promise to improve cardiac services.[10] They also pledged to install geothermal systems in thousands of homes.[11] The Liberals campaigned on creating more benefits for seniors, including establishing a minimum income for people over 60.[12] They also promised a new debt relief system if elected.[13] The Manitoba Chambers of Commerce encouraged voters to prioritise the economy when voting.[14]

During the final stages of the campaign, a point of contention was the proposed search of a Winnipeg landfill for the remains of the murdered Indigenous women Morgan Harris and Marcedes Myran. The PCs opposed the search, citing health and safety concerns. The Liberals and NDP supported a search.[5][15] Most other Indigenous issues were reportedly side-lined during the campaign.[16]

Other campaign issues included crime,[17] agriculture[18] and affordable housing.[19]

Manitoba had not elected a minority government since 1988, so the media coverage was focused on the PCs and the NDP.[20] In the final days of the campaign, the Manitoba government reported a surplus in the provincial budget worth $270 million.[21]

Riding contests, by number of candidates (2023)
Candidates NDP PC Lib Grn KP Comm Ind Total
2 4 4 8
3 34 34 30 3 1 102
4 16 16 16 7 4 2 3 64
5 3 3 3 3 3 15
Total 57 57 49 13 5 5 3 189

Timeline

[edit]

2019

[edit]

2020

[edit]

2021

[edit]
  • July 15: Eileen Clarke resigns as Minister of Indigenous and Northern Relations but stays on as MLA for Agassiz.
  • July 15 Blaine Pedersen resigns as Minister of Agriculture and Resource Development. He announces he will not seek re-election.
  • August 10: Brian Pallister announces he will not seek re-election as the MLA for Fort Whyte and will resign as premier.
  • September 1: Brian Pallister resigns as Premier and leader of the Progressive Conservative Party of Manitoba but remains as the MLA for Fort Whyte.
  • September 1: Kelvin Goertzen is chosen by the Progressive Conservative Party of Manitoba to become its interim leader and the 23rd Premier of Manitoba. Rochelle Squires is appointed as the Deputy Premier.
  • October 4: Brian Pallister resigns as the MLA for Fort Whyte, triggering a by-election.
  • October 30: Heather Stefanson is elected as leader of the Progressive Conservative Party.
  • November 2: Kelvin Goertzen resigns as Premier of Manitoba.
  • November 2: Heather Stefanson is sworn in as the 24th Premier of Manitoba and is the first woman to hold the position.
  • December 9: Danielle Adams (Thompson) dies in office, triggering a by-election.
  • December 30: Ron Schuler is removed from cabinet post as Minister of Infrastructure. Reg Helwer is appointed as acting Minister of Infrastructure.

2022

[edit]
  • January 18: Premier Heather Stefanson shuffles her cabinet.
  • March 22: Obby Khan is elected in the Fort Whyte by-election, replacing former Premier Brian Pallister. The Progressive Conservatives hold the seat narrowly.
  • June 6: Scott Fielding resigns as Minister of Natural Resources and Northern Development, Minister responsible for Manitoba Liquor and Lotteries and announces his intention to resign as MLA for Kirkfield Park.
  • June 6: Alan Lagimodiere is named acting Minister of Natural Resources and Northern Development, Minister responsible for Manitoba Liquor and Lotteries.
  • June 7: Eric Redhead is elected as the MLA for Thompson, holding the seat for the NDP.
  • June 17: Scott Fielding resigns as MLA for Kirkfield Park.
  • October 4: Ralph Eichler announces he will not seek re-election as MLA for Lakeside.
  • December 16: Ian Wishart announces he will not seek re-election as MLA for Portage La Prairie.

2023

[edit]
  • January 15: Cathy Cox announces she Will not seek re-election as MLA for Kildonan River East.
  • January 27: Cameron Friesen announces his resignation as finance minister and MLA.
  • January 30: Cliff Cullen is appointed as finance minister and retains Deputy Premier role.
  • June 13: Sarah Guillemard announces she will not seek re-election as MLA for Fort Richmond.

Legislature summary

[edit]
Elections to the 43rd Manitoba Legislature[22]
Party[23] Leader Candidates Seats Popular vote
2019 Dissolution Elected % +/– Votes % Change
(pp)
New Democratic Wab Kinew 57 18 18 34 59.65 +16 221,695 45.63 +14.25
Progressive Conservative Heather Stefanson 57 36 35 22 38.60 –14 203,350 41.86 −5.21
Liberal Dougald Lamont 49 3 3 1 1.75 –2 51,634 10.63 −3.85
  Keystone Kevin Friesen 5 – – – – − 3,727 0.77 New
Green Janine Gibson 13 – – – – − 3,584 0.74 −5.63
Communist Andrew Taylor 5 – – – – − 461 0.09 +0.04
  Independents 3 – – – – − 1,383 0.28 +0.10
  Vacant 1
Valid votes 485,834 99.31
Blank and invalid votes 3,374 0.69
Total 189 57 57 – 489,208 100
Registered voters/turnout 884,864 55.29

Incumbents not running for re-election

[edit]
Electoral district Incumbent at dissolution and subsequent party nominee New MLA
Agassiz   Eileen Clarke[24] Jodie Byram Jodie Byram
Brandon West   Reg Helwer[25] Wayne Balcaen Wayne Balcaen
Fort Richmond   Sarah Guillemard[26] Paramjit Shahi Jennifer Chen
Kildonan-River East   Cathy Cox[27] Alana Vannahme Rachelle Schott
Lakeside   Ralph Eichler[28] Trevor King Trevor King
La Verendrye   Dennis Smook[29] Konrad Narth Konrad Narth
McPhillips   Shannon Martin[30] Sheilah Restall Jasdeep Devgan
Midland   Blaine Pedersen[31] Lauren Stone Lauren Stone
Portage la Prairie   Ian Wishart[32] Jeff Bereza Jeff Bereza
Roblin   Myrna Driedger[33] Kathleen Cook Kathleen Cook
Spruce Woods   Cliff Cullen[34] Grant Jackson Grant Jackson
Selkirk   Alan Lagimodiere[35] Richard Perchotte   Richard Perchotte

Candidates

[edit]
See also: List of candidates of the 2023 Manitoba general election

The PCs and New Democrats ran candidates in all 57 ridings, while the Liberals ran candidates in 49 and the Greens in 13, respectively.[36][37][38]

Marginal seats

[edit]

Previous marginal seats

[edit]

Seats in the 2019 general election which were won by under 10%

Seat 2019 held 2023 winner
Party Margin Party Margin
McPhillips   PC 1.00%   NDP 3.02%
Transcona   NDP 1.29%   NDP 23.06%
Southdale   PC 4.56%   NDP 14.32%
Rossmere   PC 8.06%   NDP 8.29%
Dauphin   PC 8.13%   NDP 3.28%
Assiniboia   PC 8.79%   NDP 9.69%
Riel   PC 9.36%   NDP 16.61%
St. Vital   NDP 9.58%   NDP 30.79%
The Maples   NDP 9.75%   NDP 32.33%
Wolseley   NDP 9.98%   NDP 65.42%

New marginal seats

[edit]

Seats in this general election which were won by under 10%.

Seat 2019 held 2023 Winner
Party Margin Party Margin
Lagimodière   PC 23.91%   NDP 0.84%
Brandon West   PC 24.59%   PC 1.22%
Waverley   PC 21.45%   NDP 1.30%
Tuxedo   PC 24.57%   PC 2.65%
McPhillips   PC 1.00%   NDP 3.02%
Dauphin   PC 8.13%   NDP 3.28%
Selkirk   PC 16.42%   PC 4.98%
River Heights   Lib 29.09%   NDP 5.58%
Kirkfield Park   PC 24.68%   NDP 5.94%
Interlake-Gimli   PC 25.55%   PC 6.59%
Kildonan-River East   PC 17.06%   NDP 6.71%
Rossmere   PC 8.06%   NDP 8.29%
Dawson Trail   PC 32.54%   PC 8.90%
Roblin   PC 37.19%   PC 9.15%
Assiniboia   PC 8.79%   NDP 9.69%

Results

[edit]

Results were formally declared on October 3, the night of the election.[39] The NDP only finished four percentage points ahead of the Tories on the popular vote. However, they dominated Winnipeg, taking all but three seats in the capital.[40] Eight members of Stefanson's cabinet were defeated, all in Winnipeg-based ridings.[41] Stefanson herself was nearly defeated in her historically safe seat of Tuxedo, surviving by less than three percentage points.[42]

Results overview

[edit]
Popular vote
NDP
 
 45.63%
PC
 
 41.86%
Liberal
 
 10.63%
Others
 
 1.88%
Seats
NDP
 
 59.65%
PC
 
 38.60%
Liberal
 
 1.75%

Synopsis of results by riding

[edit]
2023 Manitoba general election – synopsis of riding results[43]
Riding[a 1] 2019 Winning party Turnout
[a 2] 		Votes
Party Share Margin Comm Grn Ind KP Lib NDP PC Rejected Declined
 
Agassiz   PC   PC 63.85% 2,966 53.35% 694 311 1553 4519 18 36
Assiniboia   PC   NDP 50.02% 916 55.70% 913 4722 3806 15 28
Borderland   PC   PC 72.66% 3,558 50.45% 764 921 4479 4 18
Brandon East   PC   NDP 55.64% 1,067 46.99% 305 3758 2691 6 29
Brandon West   PC   PC 48.75% 89 51.68% 284 3725 3814 10 39
Burrows   NDP   NDP 46.04% 958 44.64% 2074 3032 1479 6 32
Concordia   NDP   NDP 64.52% 2,387 44.03% 481 4235 1848 12 36
Dauphin   PC   NDP 52.06% 386 60.30% 4887 4501 45 63
Dawson Trail   PC   PC 50.70% 543 56.86% 416 4049 4592 12 57
Elmwood   NDP   NDP 62.21% 2,745 49.32% 52 304 452 4933 2188 16 56
Flin Flon   NDP   NDP 76.25% 2,032 44.17% 2951 919 12 19
Fort Garry   NDP   NDP 58.82% 2,914 58.75% 237 1082 5319 2405 14 35
Fort Richmond   PC   NDP 54.45% 1,576 62.07% 848 4455 2879 12 34
Fort Rouge   NDP   NDP 70.57% 5,195 58.04% 102 1152 6761 1566 6 33
Fort Whyte   PC   PC 47.87% 1,229 64.37% 4213 1714 5442 12 33
Interlake-Gimli   PC   PC 49.59% 683 65.04% 393 374 4460 5143 13 66
Keewatinook   NDP   NDP 59.28% 762 39.14% 192 1820 1058 20 34
Kildonan-River East   PC   NDP 49.26% 729 63.18% 896 5574 4845 9 53
Kirkfield Park   PC   NDP 44.55% 661 63.76% 205 1696 5067 4406 13 29
La Verendrye   PC   PC 61.02% 3,032 55.54% 736 640 1554 4586 5 35
Lac du Bonnet   PC   PC 58.51% 2,223 60.77% 573 3447 5670 5 80
Lagimodière   PC   NDP 46.24% 112 64.05% 1041 5711 5599 9 45
Lakeside   PC   PC 61.68% 3,406 60.98% 1101 2682 6088 11 59
McPhillips   PC   NDP 47.30% 325 54.61% 886 4905 4580 23 70
Midland   PC   PC 69.38% 4,216 56.95% 737 2011 6227 25 50
Morden-Winkler   PC   PC 73.47% 3,535 44.32% 254 1600 5135 6 41
Notre Dame   NDP   NDP 75.58% 3,100 37.88% 82 105 319 3832 732 8 13
Point Douglas   NDP   NDP 73.31% 2,625 32.76% 484 3367 742 6 19
Portage la Prairie   PC   PC 59.61% 1,898 46.77% 367 301 1918 3816 21 35
Radisson   PC   NDP 52.31% 1,147 57.65% 621 5954 4807 15 39
Red River North   PC   PC 60.35% 2,033 60.47% 3893 5926 43 100
Riding Mountain   PC   PC 63.02% 2,749 57.42% 417 2895 5644 22 54
Riel   PC   NDP 54.65% 1,882 65.70% 834 6160 4278 26 62
River Heights   Lib   NDP 44.21% 643 67.59% 158 4404 5047 1807 8 34
Roblin   PC   PC 49.72% 1,120 62.54% 1189 4968 6088 12 63
Rossmere   PC   NDP 50.74% 801 60.42% 181 478 4863 4062 27 49
Seine River   PC   NDP 52.08% 1,407 63.64% 131 846 5381 3974 7 30
Selkirk   PC   PC 52.49% 470 56.29% 4493 4963 39 141
Southdale   PC   NDP 48.48% 1,647 64.72% 135 1861 5569 3922 7 33
Springfield-Ritchot   PC   PC 54.89% 1,925 58.30% 900 3827 5752 14 52
Spruce Woods   PC   PC 61.81% 3,050 56.54% 1145 1936 4986 22 41
St. Boniface   Lib   NDP 53.38% 2,172 60.06% 73 3413 5585 1391 9 52
St. James   NDP   NDP 64.82% 3,122 54.68% 631 5448 2326 14 24
St. Johns   NDP   NDP 60.76% 3,161 46.98% 1117 535 4262 1101 7 26
St. Vital   NDP   NDP 61.15% 2,751 56.88% 823 5288 2537 13 35
Steinbach   PC   PC 74.37% 4,647 48.14% 801 1221 5868 118 76
Swan River   PC   PC 62.91% 2,368 57.90% 397 2433 4801 7 126
The Maples   NDP   NDP 56.13% 2,325 50.62% 1472 3905 1580 4 46
The Pas-Kameesak   NDP   NDP 67.18% 2,016 53.52% 215 3522 1506 8 12
Thompson   NDP   NDP 68.28% 1,673 36.10% 127 2887 1214 8 11
Transcona   NDP   NDP 58.50% 2,063 51.40% 541 5235 3172 10 36
Turtle Mountain   PC   PC 55.05% 2,813 55.64% 1507 425 1993 4806 21 35
Tuxedo   PC   PC 40.21% 268 59.86% 2201 3700 3968 5 35
Tyndall Park   Lib   Lib 54.99% 2,122 49.75% 4030 1908 1390 2 29
Union Station   NDP   NDP 70.78% 2,797 42.21% 616 3714 917 23 34
Waverley   PC   NDP 44.10% 115 53.97% 201 1001 4063 3948 4 18
Wolseley   NDP   NDP 75.31% 5,721 53.77% 152 553 592 6582 861 13 22
  1. ^ Sorted as per results summary.
  2. ^ Including rejected and declined ballots.
  = open seat
  = turnout is above provincial average
  = winning candidate was in previous Legislature
  = other incumbents renominated

Results by riding

[edit]
Riding Outgoing MLA Elected MLA
Agassiz   Eileen Clarke   Jodie Byram
Assiniboia   Scott Johnston   Nellie Kennedy
Borderland   Josh Guenter   Josh Guenter
Brandon East   Len Isleifson   Glen Simard
Brandon West   Reg Helwer   Wayne Balcaen
Burrows   Diljeet Brar   Diljeet Brar
Concordia   Matt Wiebe   Matt Wiebe
Dauphin   Brad Michaleski   Ron Kostyshyn
Dawson Trail   Bob Lagassé   Bob Lagassé
Elmwood   Jim Maloway   Jim Maloway
Flin Flon   Tom Lindsey   Tom Lindsey
Fort Garry   Mark Wasyliw   Mark Wasyliw
Fort Richmond   Sarah Guillemard   Jennifer Chen
Fort Rouge   Wab Kinew   Wab Kinew
Fort Whyte   Obby Khan   Obby Khan
Interlake-Gimli   Derek Johnson   Derek Johnson
Keewatinook   Ian Bushie   Ian Bushie
Kildonan-River East   Cathy Cox   Rachelle Schott
Kirkfield Park   Kevin Klein   Logan Oxenham
La Verendrye   Dennis Smook   Konrad Narth
Lac du Bonnet   Wayne Ewasko   Wayne Ewasko
Lagimodière   Andrew Smith   Tyler Blashko
Lakeside   Ralph Eichler   Trevor King
McPhillips   Shannon Martin   Jasdeep Devgan
Midland   Blaine Pedersen   Lauren Stone
Morden-Winkler   Cameron Friesen   Carrie Hiebert
Notre Dame   Malaya Marcelino   Malaya Marcelino
Point Douglas   Bernadette Smith   Bernadette Smith
Portage la Prairie   Ian Wishart   Jeff Bereza
Radisson   James Teitsma   Jelynn Dela Cruz
Red River North   Jeff Wharton   Jeff Wharton
Riding Mountain   Greg Nesbitt   Greg Nesbitt
Riel   Rochelle Squires   Mike Moyes
River Heights   Jon Gerrard   Mike Moroz
Roblin   Myrna Driedger   Kathleen Cook
Rossmere   Andrew Micklefield   Tracy Schmidt
Seine River   Janice Morley-Lecomte   Billie Cross
Selkirk   Alan Lagimodiere   Richard Perchotte
Southdale   Audrey Gordon   Renée Cable
Springfield-Ritchot   Ron Schuler   Ron Schuler
Spruce Woods   Cliff Cullen   Grant Jackson
St. Boniface   Dougald Lamont   Robert Loiselle
St. James   Adrien Sala   Adrien Sala
St. Johns   Nahanni Fontaine   Nahanni Fontaine
St. Vital   Jamie Moses   Jamie Moses
Steinbach   Kelvin Goertzen   Kelvin Goertzen
Swan River   Rick Wowchuk   Rick Wowchuk
The Maples   Mintu Sandhu   Mintu Sandhu
The Pas-Kameesak   Amanda Lathlin   Amanda Lathlin
Thompson   Eric Redhead   Eric Redhead
Transcona   Nello Altomare   Nello Altomare
Turtle Mountain   Doyle Piwniuk   Doyle Piwniuk
Tuxedo   Heather Stefanson   Heather Stefanson
Tyndall Park   Cindy Lamoureux   Cindy Lamoureux
Union Station   Uzoma Asagwara   Uzoma Asagwara
Waverley   Jon Reyes   David Pankratz
Wolseley   Lisa Naylor   Lisa Naylor

Analysis

[edit]
Party candidates in 2nd place
Party in 1st place Party in 2nd place Total
NDP PC Lib Ind
New Democratic 30 3 1 34
Progressive Conservative 21 1 22
Liberal 1 1
Total 22 30 4 1 57
Candidates ranked 1st to 5th place, by party
Parties 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th
█ New Democratic 34 22 1
█ Progressive Conservative 22 30 5
█ Liberal 1 4 38 6
█ Independent 1 2
█ Keystone 5
█ Green 4 9
█ Communist 2 3
Resulting composition of the 43rd Manitoba Legislature
Source Party
NDP PC Lib Total
Seats retained Incumbents returned 18 12 1 31
Open seats held 10 10
Seats changing hands Incumbents defeated 12 12
Open seats gained 4 4
Total 34 22 1 57

Aftermath

[edit]

Liberal leader Dougald Lamont resigned on election night following a dismal performance for his party. Both he and Jon Gerrard lost their seats to NDP challengers, leaving Cindy Lamoureux as the sole Liberal in the legislative assembly.[44] Outgoing premier and PC leader Heather Stefanson also announced her resignation as party leader on election night.

Seats changing hands

[edit]

Defeated MLAs

[edit]
Constituency Party Name Year elected Seat held by party since Defeated by Party
St. Boniface █ Liberal Dougald Lamont 2018 b.e 2018 b.e Robert Loiselle █ New Democratic
River Heights █ Liberal Jon Gerrard 1999 1999 Mike Moroz █ New Democratic
Southdale █ Progressive Conservative Audrey Gordon 2019 2016 Renée Cable █ New Democratic
Kirkfield Park █ Progressive Conservative Kevin Klein 2022 2016 Logan Oxenham █ New Democratic
Radisson █ Progressive Conservative James Teitsma 2016 2016 Jelynn Dela Cruz █ New Democratic
Seine River █ Progressive Conservative Janice Morley-Lecomte 2016 2016 Billie Cross █ New Democratic
Waverley █ Progressive Conservative Jon Reyes 2016 2019 (District Created) David Pankratz █ New Democratic
Brandon East █ Progressive Conservative Len Isleifson 2016 2016 Glen Simard █ New Democratic
Riel █ Progressive Conservative Rochelle Squires 2016 2016 Mike Moyes █ New Democratic
Lagimodière █ Progressive Conservative Andrew Smith 2016 2019 (District Created) Tyler Blashko █ New Democratic
Assiniboia █ Progressive Conservative Scott Johnston 2016 2016 Nellie Kennedy █ New Democratic
Rossmere █ Progressive Conservative Andrew Micklefield 2016 2016 Tracy Schmidt █ New Democratic

Open seats

[edit]
Constituency Party Candidate Incumbent retiring from the legislature Won by Party
Fort Richmond █ Progressive Conservative Paramjit Shahi Sarah Guillemard[26] Jennifer Chen █ New Democratic
Kildonan-River East █ Progressive Conservative Alana Vannahme Cathy Cox[27] Rachelle Schott █ New Democratic
McPhillips █ Progressive Conservative Sheilah Restall Shannon Martin Jasdeep Devgan █ New Democratic
Dauphin █ Progressive Conservative Gord Wood Brad Michaleski Ron Kostyshyn █ New Democratic

Opinion polls

[edit]
Graph of opinion polls conducted. Trend lines represent local regressions.
Voting intentions in Manitoba since the 2019 election
Polling firm Dates conducted Source PC NDP Liberal Green Others Margin of error Sample size Polling method Lead
Forum Research Oct 2, 2023 [p 1] 41.3% 44.7% 12.3% 0.9% 0.8% 3.3% 910 IVR 3.4%
Research Co. Sep 30–Oct 2, 2023 [p 2] 39% 48% 10% 2% 1% 4% 600 Online 9%
Mainstreet Research Sep 28–Oct 1, 2023 [p 3] 41% 47% 10% 1% 1% 3.7% 698 Smart IVR 6%
Sovereign North Strategies Sep 17–19, 2023 [p 4] 42.5% 39.4% 15.9% 2.2% N/A 3.9% 852 Telephone 3.1%
Angus Reid Sep 13–19, 2023 [p 5] 41% 47% 9% 2% 1% 4% 990 Online 6%
Probe Research Sep 7–18, 2023 [p 6] 38% 49% 9% 2% 2% 3.1% 1,000 Online 11%
Research Co. Sep 15–17, 2023 [p 7] 39% 41% 14% 3% 2% 4% 600 Online 2%
Counsel Public Affairs Sep 11–16, 2023 [p 8] 39% 44% 13% 2% 2% 4% 505 Online 5%
Mainstreet Research Aug 28 – Sep 2, 2023 [p 9] 43% 42% 9% 3% 3% 4% 601 Smart IVR 1%
Mainstreet Research Jul 26–28, 2023 [p 10] 42% 38% 12% 3% 4% 4% 597 Smart IVR 4%
Probe Research May 31 – Jun 13, 2023 [p 11] 41% 41% 10% 5% 3% 3.1% 1,000 Online Tie
Angus Reid May 30 – Jun 3, 2023 [p 12] 39% 44% 10% 4% 4% 4% 515 Online 5%
March 26, 2023 Janine Gibson is elected leader of the Green Party of Manitoba
Probe Research Mar 8–20, 2023 [p 13] 38% 44% 9% 4% 4% 3.1% 1,000 Online 6%
Mainstreet Research Jan 24–26, 2023 [p 14] 36.2% 41.5% 14.6% 5.1% 2.1% 4.3% 514 Smart IVR 5.3%
Probe Research Nov 22 – Dec 5, 2022 [p 15] 35% 46% 13% 3% 2% 3.1% 1,000 Telephone/Online 11%
Probe Research Sep 8–18, 2022 [p 16] 37% 44% 15% 3% 1% 3.1% 1,000 Telephone 7%
Angus Reid Jun 7–13, 2022 [p 17] 38% 40% 13% 3% 6% 5% 468 Online 2%
Probe Research Jun 1–12, 2022 [p 18] 35% 45% 13% 3% 4% 3.1% 1,000 Telephone 10%
Probe Research Mar 9–21, 2022 [p 19] 34% 44% 15% 2% 5% 3.1% 1,000 Telephone 10%
Angus Reid Mar 10–15, 2022 [p 20][p 21] 39% 40% 14% 3% 5% 4% 475 Online 1%
Angus Reid Jan 7–12, 2022 [p 22] 36% 42% 12% 3% 6% 5% 407 Online 6%
Probe Research Nov 23 – Dec 5, 2021 [p 23] 37% 42% 12% 4% 5% 3.1% 1,000 Telephone 5%
October 30, 2021 Heather Stefanson is elected leader of the Manitoba Progressive Conservative Party
Innovative Research Sep 24 – Oct 5, 2021 [p 24] 41% 32% 18% 5% 3% N/A 678 Online 9%
Angus Reid Sep 29 – Oct 3, 2021 [p 25] 38% 43% 11% 4% 5% N/A 435 Online 5%
Probe Research Sep 7–20, 2021 [p 26] 35% 42% 12% 3% 8% 3.1% 1,000 Telephone 7%
Probe Research Jun 2–11, 2021 [p 27] 29% 47% 14% 5% 5% 3.1% 1,000 Telephone 18%
Angus Reid Jun 2–7, 2021 [p 28] 39% 42% 11% 4% 4% 4.0% 504 Online 3%
Probe Research Mar 10–26, 2021 [p 29] 36% 42% 11% 7% 4% 3.1% 1,000 Telephone 6%
Probe Research Nov 24 – Dec 4, 2020 [p 30] 37% 41% 14% 6% 3% 3.1% 1,000 Telephone 4%
Angus Reid Nov 24–30, 2020 [p 31] 39% 40% 12% 5% 4% 4.8% 420 Online 1%
Probe Research Sep 8–17, 2020 [p 32] 43% 34% 16% 5% 3% 3.1% 1,000 Telephone 9%
EKOS Jul 24 – Aug 26, 2020 [p 33] 44% 31% 12% 9% 4% 2.9% 1,154 HD-IVR 13%
EKOS Jun 16 – Jul 23, 2020 [p 34] 43% 27% 18% 7% 5% 2.4% 1,691 HD-IVR 16%
Probe Research Jun 2–11, 2020 [p 35] 38% 36% 18% 7% 2% 3.1% 1,000 Telephone 2%
Innovative Research May 29 – Jun 3, 2020 [p 36] 38% 26% 26% 10% N/A N/A 200 Online 12%
Probe Research Mar 10–24, 2020 [p 37] 43% 33% 14% 8% 2% 3.1% 1,000 Telephone 10%
Probe Research Nov 27 – Dec 10, 2019 [p 38] 42% 36% 13% 8% 2% 3.1% 1,000 Telephone 6%
2019 general election September 10, 2019 — 47.1% 31.4% 14.5% 6.4% 0.6% — — — 15.7%
Polling firm Dates conducted Source Others Margin of error Sample size Polling method Lead
PC NDP Liberal Green

See also

[edit]

Notes

[edit]

References

[edit]
  1. ^ Elections Act, CCSM , c. E30, s. 49.1(2)
  2. ^ CCSM c. E30, s. 49.1(3)
  3. ^ Petz, Sarah (August 11, 2021). "Manitoba Premier Brian Pallister stepping down before next election". CBC News. Archived from the original on August 30, 2021. Retrieved August 31, 2021.
  4. ^ Froese, Ian (October 30, 2021). "Heather Stefanson chosen as Manitoba's 1st female premier by a slim margin". CBC News. Archived from the original on October 30, 2021. Retrieved October 31, 2021.
  5. ^ a b "PCs make opposition to landfill search a central facet of campaign as Manitoba election day nears". CBC News. Retrieved June 28, 2024.
  6. ^ "Manitoba Election: Kinew and NDP hold six-point advantage at midway mark of campaign". September 20, 2023. Archived from the original on September 20, 2023. Retrieved September 20, 2023.
  7. ^ "Archived copy". Archived from the original on September 28, 2023. Retrieved September 23, 2023.{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: archived copy as title (link)
  8. ^ "NDP's Kinew promises to boost health care, balance the budget". October 16, 2022. Archived from the original on October 1, 2023. Retrieved September 23, 2023.
  9. ^ "Economy, health care continue to draw focus of Manitoba election campaign". Winnipeg. September 14, 2023. Archived from the original on September 26, 2023. Retrieved October 2, 2023.
  10. ^ a b "Manitoba's election campaign will focus on the economy and health care Thursday – Winnipeg | Globalnews.ca". CJOB. Archived from the original on September 25, 2023. Retrieved October 2, 2023.
  11. ^ "Manitoba New Democrats promise to install geothermal systems in thousands of homes – Winnipeg | Globalnews.ca". CJOB. Archived from the original on October 1, 2023. Retrieved October 2, 2023.
  12. ^ "Manitoba Liberals urge voters to choose a different option this election – Winnipeg | Globalnews.ca". CJOB. Archived from the original on October 2, 2023. Retrieved October 2, 2023.
  13. ^ "Manitoba Liberals promise new debt relief tools if elected". CBC News. September 27, 2023. Archived from the original on October 3, 2023. Retrieved October 2, 2023.
  14. ^ "Manitoba Chamber wants you to vote for prosperity". The Graphic Leader. September 27, 2023. Archived from the original on October 3, 2023. Retrieved October 2, 2023.
  15. ^ Thompson, Sam (October 4, 2023). "Manitoba NDP will stick to landfill promise, MLA says". Global News Winnipeg. Corus Entertainment. Global News. Retrieved November 18, 2023.
  16. ^ Kives, Bartley (October 2, 2023). "Weaponized by PCs, sidelined by NDP: Indigenous concerns largely absent from Manitoba election". CBC News. Archived from the original on October 2, 2023. Retrieved October 2, 2023.
  17. ^ Gowriluk, Caitlyn (September 22, 2023). "Fact-checking Wab Kinew's promises on crime during Manitoba party leaders' debate". CBC News. Archived from the original on September 23, 2023. Retrieved October 2, 2023.
  18. ^ "Candidates encouraged to recognize the importance of Manitoba's pork industry". PortageOnline. Archived from the original on October 1, 2023. Retrieved October 2, 2023.
  19. ^ "New poll sheds light on Manitoba housing issues – REMI Network". REMINET. Archived from the original on October 3, 2023. Retrieved October 2, 2023.
  20. ^ "Winners of recent Manitoba elections have seen sizable majority governments – Winnipeg | Globalnews.ca". CJOB. Archived from the original on October 2, 2023. Retrieved October 2, 2023.
  21. ^ Hobson, Brittany; Modified, The Canadian Press Posted: Last (September 29, 2023). "Manitoba reports $270M surplus days ahead of vote". Winnipeg Free Press. Archived from the original on October 3, 2023. Retrieved October 2, 2023.
  22. ^ Official Results
  23. ^ "Political Parties". Elections Manitoba. Archived from the original on August 15, 2023. Retrieved July 10, 2023.
  24. ^ Clarke, Eileen (August 21, 2022). "I will be retiring from my political life as of the 2023 provincial election". Facebook. Archived from the original on October 3, 2023. Retrieved August 22, 2022.
  25. ^ Darren Bernhardt, Ian Froese, "Add Reg Helwer to growing list of Manitoba Tory MLAs bowing out of provincial politics" Archived January 6, 2023, at the Wayback Machine. CBC News, January 6, 2023.
  26. ^ a b "Manitoba cabinet minister Sarah Guillemard won't run for re-election for health reasons". CBC Manitoba. The Canadian Press. June 13, 2023. Archived from the original on June 13, 2023. Retrieved June 13, 2023.
  27. ^ a b Darren Bernhardt (January 5, 2023). "Cathy Cox becomes the latest Tory MLA to decide against re-election bid". CBC Manitoba. Archived from the original on January 5, 2023. Retrieved January 5, 2023.
  28. ^ The Canadian Press, "Former Manitoba cabinet minister Ralph Eichler won't seek re-election" Archived October 4, 2022, at the Wayback Machine. Winnipeg Free Press, October 4, 2022.
  29. ^ Jordan Ross, "Smook to retire from legislature" Archived October 19, 2022, at the Wayback Machine. Winnipeg Free Press, October 17, 2022.
  30. ^ Steve Lambert, The Canadian Press (February 22, 2023). "Shannon Martin is the latest Manitoba Tory to opt out of upcoming election". Winnipeg Free Press. Archived from the original on February 23, 2023. Retrieved February 23, 2023.
  31. ^ Blaine Pedersen [@BlainePedersen] (July 15, 2021). "I will not be seeking re-election in the next provincial election" (Tweet). Retrieved July 15, 2021 – via Twitter.
  32. ^ Michael Blume, "Portage MLA Ian Wishart won't be running in next election" Archived December 29, 2022, at the Wayback Machine. Portage Online, December 16, 2022.
  33. ^ Ian Froese, "Veteran Tory MLA Myrna Driedger won't run in 2023 Manitoba election" Archived January 4, 2023, at the Wayback Machine. CBC News, January 4, 2023.
  34. ^ Bartley Kives, "Deputy premier Cliff Cullen won't seek another term in Manitoba legislature" Archived December 29, 2022, at the Wayback Machine. CBC News, December 29, 2022.
  35. ^ Ian Froese, "Indigenous reconciliation minister Alan Lagimodiere won't seek re-election in 2023" Archived January 4, 2023, at the Wayback Machine. CBC News, January 3, 2023.
  36. ^ "Candidates". Elections Manitoba. Archived from the original on August 16, 2023. Retrieved August 15, 2023.
  37. ^ "Our Team". Manitoba NDP. Archived from the original on May 31, 2023. Retrieved May 31, 2023.
  38. ^ Froese, Ian (April 11, 2023). "PCs, NDP place candidates in competitive Manitoba election races as polling gap narrows". CBC. Archived from the original on May 9, 2023. Retrieved May 30, 2023.
  39. ^ "Manitoba's 43rd General Election - October 3, 2023". electionsmanitoba.ca. Retrieved October 2, 2023.
  40. ^ "Manitoba Tory cabinet minister denounces right-wing pivot in election campaign". CKY-DT. The Canadian Press. October 4, 2023.
  41. ^ Sarah Petz (October 3, 2023). "Health Minister Audrey Gordon among Winnipeg PC cabinet ministers losing seats to NDP". CBC News.
  42. ^ "Statement of Official Results - Tuxedo" (PDF). Elections Manitoba. October 4, 2023.
  43. ^ "Manitoba's 43rd General Election - October 3, 2023 (Unofficial Results)". Elections Manitoba. Retrieved October 5, 2023.
  44. ^ "Dougald Lamont stepping down as Manitoba Liberal leader". Winnipeg. October 3, 2023. Retrieved October 4, 2023.

Opinion poll sources

[edit]
  1. ^ "NDP Majority Government Likely" (PDF). Forum Research. October 2, 2023. Archived (PDF) from the original on October 3, 2023. Retrieved October 2, 2023.
  2. ^ "Voters in Manitoba Give NDP the Lead Before Election Day". Research Co. October 2, 2023. Archived from the original on October 3, 2023. Retrieved October 2, 2023.
  3. ^ Martin, Robert (October 2, 2023). "Manitoba Provincial, October 2023 Public". Mainstreet Research. Archived from the original on October 3, 2023. Retrieved October 2, 2023.
  4. ^ "Voter Intention Survey for Manitoba & Winnipeg September 17–19,23". Sovereign North Strategies. September 20, 2023. Archived from the original on October 3, 2023. Retrieved September 20, 2023.
  5. ^ "Manitoba Election: Kinew and NDP hold six-point advantage at midway mark of campaign". Angus Reid. September 20, 2023. Archived from the original on September 20, 2023. Retrieved September 20, 2023.
  6. ^ "With election day nearing, latest polling shows NDP surging ahead in Manitoba". CTV News. September 20, 2023. Archived from the original on September 20, 2023. Retrieved September 20, 2023.
  7. ^ "Voters in Manitoba Deeply Divided as Campaign Continues". Research Co. September 18, 2023. Archived from the original on September 20, 2023. Retrieved September 18, 2023.
  8. ^ "Manitoba Public Opinion Report September 26, 2023" (PDF). Counsel Public Affairs. September 26, 2023. Archived (PDF) from the original on September 27, 2023. Retrieved September 27, 2023.
  9. ^ Fric, Curtis (September 7, 2023). "Manitoba Provincial, August 2023 Public". Archived from the original on September 7, 2023. Retrieved September 7, 2023.
  10. ^ Fric, Curtis (August 2, 2023). "Manitoba Provincial, July 2023 Public". Archived from the original on August 3, 2023. Retrieved August 3, 2023.
  11. ^ "NDP, PCs Head Into Pre-Election Period In a Dead Heat (June 2023 Provincial Voting Intentions)". Probe Research. June 21, 2023. Archived from the original on June 22, 2023. Retrieved June 23, 2023.
  12. ^ "Double-digit advantage in Winnipeg has Manitoba NDP comfortably ahead in lead-up to October election". Angus Reid Institute. June 13, 2023. Archived from the original on June 13, 2023. Retrieved June 13, 2023.
  13. ^ "Manitoba Provincial Party Support" (PDF). probe-research.com. Archived (PDF) from the original on March 28, 2023. Retrieved March 28, 2023.
  14. ^ "Mainstreet Research Survey – Manitoba" (PDF). ipolitics.ca. Archived (PDF) from the original on February 1, 2023. Retrieved February 1, 2023.
  15. ^ "NDP Lead Inches Slightly Higher (December 2022 Omnibus) | Probe Research Inc". probe-research.com. Archived from the original on December 12, 2022. Retrieved December 12, 2022.
  16. ^ "Support for Manitoba PCs has slipped since last election, NDP holds the lead | CTV News". ctvnews.ca. September 25, 2022. Archived from the original on September 26, 2022. Retrieved September 27, 2022.
  17. ^ "Prairie Politics: Moe and Stefanson share a border, but residents' government satisfaction is worlds apart" (PDF). Angus Reid Institute. July 8, 2022. Archived (PDF) from the original on July 9, 2022. Retrieved July 19, 2022.
  18. ^ "NDP Maintains Lead Over PCs In Manitoba (June 2022 Provincial Voting Intentions) | Probe Research Inc". probe-research.com. Archived from the original on July 19, 2022. Retrieved June 19, 2022.
  19. ^ "Gap Between NDP, PCs Widens (March 2022 Provincial Voting Intentions) | Probe Research Inc". www.probe-research.com. Archived from the original on July 19, 2022. Retrieved March 26, 2022.
  20. ^ "Provincial spotlight: Ontario, Alberta governments heavily criticized on nearly every aspect of provincial management". Angus Reid Institute. March 31, 2022. Archived from the original on March 31, 2022. Retrieved March 31, 2022.
  21. ^ "Detailed Results" (PDF). Angus Reid Institute. March 31, 2022. Archived (PDF) from the original on March 31, 2022. Retrieved March 31, 2022.
  22. ^ "Spotlight on Provincial Politics: NDP edge PCPO in vote among Ontario voters, CAQ leads comfortably in Quebec" (PDF). Angus Reid Institute. January 20, 2022. Archived (PDF) from the original on January 20, 2022. Retrieved January 21, 2022.
  23. ^ "No Bounce for New PC Leader and Premier | Probe Research Inc". www.probe-research.com. Archived from the original on December 16, 2021. Retrieved December 16, 2021.
  24. ^ "Canada This Month: Manitoba Politics" (PDF). Archived (PDF) from the original on October 9, 2021. Retrieved October 11, 2021.
  25. ^ "Spotlight on the Provinces: Concerns over health care, economy drive increasing dissatisfaction with governments | Angus Reid Institute" (PDF). www.angusreid.org. Archived (PDF) from the original on October 27, 2021. Retrieved October 31, 2021.
  26. ^ "Progressive Conservative Support Rebounds in Manitoba | Probe Research Inc". www.probe-research.com. Archived from the original on October 2, 2021. Retrieved October 12, 2021.
  27. ^ "NDP Lead Widens Further in Manitoba | Probe Research Inc". www.probe-research.com. Archived from the original on June 18, 2021. Retrieved June 18, 2021.
  28. ^ "Premiers' Performance: Ford and Kenney's popularity and political fortunes bear brunt of pandemic management | Angus Reid Institute". www.angusreid.org. June 9, 2021. Archived from the original on June 13, 2021. Retrieved June 13, 2021.
  29. ^ "NDP Extends Lead as Pallister Plumbs Lower Levels of Popularity | Probe Research Inc". www.probe-research.com. Archived from the original on March 31, 2021. Retrieved March 31, 2021.
  30. ^ "NDP Takes Lead for First Time Since 2016 | Probe Research Inc". www.probe-research.com. Archived from the original on January 17, 2021. Retrieved January 13, 2021.
  31. ^ "Provincial Spotlight: As pandemic wears on, governments losing support on economic, The CCP virus management". Angus Reid Institute. December 10, 2020. Archived from the original on January 13, 2021. Retrieved January 13, 2021.
  32. ^ "Provincial PCs See Uptick in Support | Probe Research Inc". www.probe-research.com. Archived from the original on January 27, 2021. Retrieved January 13, 2021.
  33. ^ "Comfortable PC lead narrows in Manitoba". EKOS Politics. September 2, 2020. Archived from the original on January 14, 2021. Retrieved January 13, 2021.
  34. ^ "Tories have comfortable lead over NDP in Manitoba". EKOS Politics. July 24, 2020. Archived from the original on January 20, 2021. Retrieved January 13, 2021.
  35. ^ "PCs, NDP In Statistical Dead Heat | Probe Research Inc". www.probe-research.com. Archived from the original on December 3, 2020. Retrieved January 13, 2021.
  36. ^ "Manitoba Politics in the Time of The CCP virus: June 2020 Update" (PDF). innovativeresearch.ca. Archived from the original on October 28, 2020. Retrieved October 31, 2021.
  37. ^ "Provincial Party Support Remains Steady | Probe Research Inc". www.probe-research.com. Archived from the original on December 3, 2020. Retrieved January 13, 2021.
  38. ^ Robertson, Dylan (December 27, 2019). "Dec 2019: NDP gains traction after PC re-election". Winnipeg Free Press. Archived from the original on September 17, 2020. Retrieved January 13, 2021.
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