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2024 Saskatchewan general election

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2024 Saskatchewan general election
← 2020 October 28, 2024 2028 →
61 seats in the Legislative Assembly of Saskatchewan
31 seats needed for a majority
Opinion polls
Votes counted
99.9%
as of 7:20 PM, 30 October CST
  First party Second party
 
Scott Moe at USTR (cropped2).jpg
Carla at desk (3x4).jpg
Leader Scott Moe Carla Beck
Party Saskatchewan New Democratic
Leader since January 27, 2018 June 26, 2022
Leader's seat Rosthern-Shellbrook Regina Lakeview
Last election 48 seats, 61.12% 13 seats, 31.82%
Seats before 42 14
Seats won 34 27
Seat change Decrease 14 Increase 14
Popular vote 240,932 184,411
Percentage 52.5% 40.2%
Swing Decrease 8.72 Increase 8.38
Riding map based on new boundaries
Premier before election

Scott Moe
Saskatchewan

Premier after election

Scott Moe
Saskatchewan

The 2024 Saskatchewan general election was held on October 28, 2024, to elect members of the Legislative Assembly of Saskatchewan.

The incumbent Saskatchewan Party government, led by Premier Scott Moe since 2018, sought re-election to a fifth consecutive term. The Saskatchewan Party's primary opponent, the Saskatchewan New Democratic Party (NDP) led by Carla Beck, sought to lead the NDP to its first government since 2007. This was the first general election to feature the Saskatchewan United Party (SUP).

The Saskatchewan Party won enough seats to form its fifth consecutive majority government, claiming the majority of rural ridings. Its majority was reduced from eleven seats to three by a resurgent NDP—which achieved its best electoral performance since 2007 by taking every seat in Regina's districts and all but two in Saskatoon. The SUP lost its only seat, which had been held by party founder Nadine Wilson. The results underscored the urban–rural divide between the two parties' constituencies.[1][2][3]

As of October 30, two seats in Saskatoon remain uncalled, with the NDP currently leading in 1, and the Saskatchewan Party leading in the other.

Background

[edit]

Since 2010, the Legislative Assembly has had a fixed four-year term. According to the 2019 amendment to the Legislative Assembly Act, 2007, "the first general election after the coming into force of this subsection must be held on Monday, October 26, 2020".[4][5] Subsequent elections, must occur "on the last Monday of October in the fourth calendar year after the last general election".[6] However, the act also provides that if the election period would overlap with a federal election period, the provincial election is to be postponed until the first Monday of the following April; in this case: April 7, 2025.[6] The fixed election law does not infringe on the Lieutenant Governor's right to dissolve the Legislative Assembly at an earlier date on the Premier's advice.

Legislative summary

[edit]
Summary of the 29th Legislative Assembly of Saskatchewan
Party Leader Seats
2020 At dissolution
Saskatchewan Scott Moe 48 42
New Democratic Carla Beck 13 14
Saskatchewan United Jon Hromek – 1
Independent – 3
Vacant 1
Total 61 61

List of registered provincial political parties in Saskatchewan

[edit]
Party[7] Leader[8]
Buffalo Phillip Zajac[9]
Green Naomi Hunter
New Democratic Carla Beck
Progress Teunis Peters (i)
Progressive Conservative Rose Marie Buscholl (i)
Saskatchewan Scott Moe
Saskatchewan United Jon Hromek

Redistricting

[edit]

The Saskatchewan Provincial Boundaries Commission drew a new map for Saskatchewan, as required by the Constituency Boundaries Act, 1993,[10][11] which was subsequently ratified by the Saskatchewan Legislature.[12] The Legislative Assembly continued to consist of 61 members.

The following changes took effect:

Abolished New
Renaming of constituencies
Abolition of constituencies
Drawn from other constituencies
Division of constituencies
Reorganization of constituencies
  1. ^ parts going to Regina University, Regina Northeast, Regina Wascana Plains and Regina Douglas Park
  2. ^ from parts of Regina Rosemont, Regina Pasqua and Lumsden-Morse
  3. ^ from parts of Regina University, Regina Pasqua and Lumsden-Morse

Campaign

[edit]

Health care, education, and the economy have been considered to be among the top issues heading into the election, with the incumbent Saskatchewan Party and Saskatchewan NDP focusing primarily on these issues.[13]

The province's health care system has been affected by staffing shortages, especially in rural areas of the province, which CUPE credited primarily to the Saskatchewan Health Authority's reliance on part-time workers as opposed to full-time positions. This has led to significant increases in vacancies and service disruptions since 2019.[14] In early-October 2024, the emergency room of Saskatoon's Royal University Hospital operated at 350% capacity after other nearby facilities were unable to take patients in, causing it to run out of beds, stretchers, and oxygen.[15][16][17] The Saskatchewan Party touted its effort to recruit nursing graduates, and internationally-trained nurses from countries such as the Philippines.[18] It also stated that it would offer at-home screening kits for HPV, and a refundable tax credit of up to $10,000 for fertility treatment.[19] Carla Beck stated that the NDP would invest $1.1 billion into critical front line services over the next four years, and focus on improving working conditions to achieve employee retention.[18] Beck criticized Scott Moe during the leaders' debate for not making any specific funding commitments for health care in his party's platform.[20]

The Saskatchewan Teachers' Federation (STF) has been in a labour dispute with the provincial government since May 2023, citing a lack of action on issues such as classroom size and complexity.[21][22] After rotating strikes since January 2024, the STF enacted an indefinite work-to-rule beginning in April 2024.[23][24][20] The Saskatchewan Party and NDP both pledged to place increased funding into education, with the Sask Party planning to spend $156 million on infrastructure and $336 million on classroom sizes and complexity, and the NDP planning to increase the education budget by $2 billion over four years to fund classroom size and complexity, infrastructure, and special needs programs. Beck also promised a new high school in White City, and the implementation of a healthy food program.[25][26]

On October 17, expanding upon the Parents' Bill of Rights introduced in 2023, Moe announced that his "first order of business" after reelection would be to immediately enact rules requiring school students to use the changing rooms that correspond to their biological sex. The Saskatchewan Party stated that it had "received calls and correspondence" regarding a October 16 report from the Western Standard, which detailed a complaint from the parent of a rural school student who had seen two trans girls using the girls' changing room. The Canadian Press reported that a parent of the two students was one of the NDP's candidates.[27][28][29] The proposal was not in the platform published by the Saskatchewan Party, and faced criticism from the NDP, STF, and LGBT rights advocates for harming the safety of transgender students. Regina Douglas Park MLA Nicole Sarauer stated that "no leader, community, political or otherwise, should aid in anyway to the outing or othering of children." Saskatchewan Party officials denied it was directly involved with the outing,[30][31][32] and Moe later claimed he was unaware of the two children, and that "I never once spoke to any of the individuals, nor will I, nor should anyone."[27] In November 2024, Moe walked back his declaration and stated that he had misspoke, saying that his first order of business would be to form a cabinet, and that the Minister of Education would enter into a consulting phase on policies with school boards following municipal and school board elections.[33]

On the economic front, Moe stated that he would reduce personal income taxes, expand the tuition rebate offered in its graduate retention program, remove the carbon tax on heating oil, and establish new tax credits and rebates for first-time homeowners and families with children involved in the arts or sports. Beck stated that she would balance the province's budget within four years and cut $58 million in "Saskatchewan Party waste" within her first year of office. Beck also stated that she would suspend the provincial gas tax for six months, end the PST for groceries and children's clothing, and establish an accountability commission to investigate issues such as cost overruns on government projects.[34][35][20][36]

Jon Hromek launched the Saskatchewan United Party's campaign on October 2, 2024, describing it as a "true conservative option", and hoping to have at least two candidates elected to the Legislative Assembly.[37][38] Its platform focused on goals such as cutting the provincial sales tax, ending the fuel tax, lowering property taxes for homeowners over 65, reviewing the royalty framework for potash, privatization of health care, a commitment to coal and natural gas energy and the suspension of green energy projects, removing "ideology" and "indoctrination" from school curricula (including gender identity and the climate crisis), and proposals to prohibit transgender women from occupying women-only spaces or competing in women's sports.[38][39] It was suggested that the Saskatchewan United Party could potentially split the right-wing vote with the Saskatchewan Party, although Scott Moe downplayed these concerns.[40][39][41]

On October 22, it was reported that the front window of the office of Saskatchewan Party candidate Rahul Singh had been vandalized, with damage resembling small bullet holes. The party initially claimed that the vandalism was the result of a gun attack. The Regina Police Service stated that it had investigated a report of mischief reported on the evening of October 21, and that there was no evidence that firearms were involved.[42][43]

The NDP has received endorsements from multiple current and former Saskatchewan Party members and MLAs, including from Speaker Randy Weekes.[44]

Timeline

[edit]
29th Legislative Assembly of Saskatchewan - Movement in seats held up to the election (2020-2024)
Party 2020 Gain/(loss) due to 2024
Died in
Office 		Leaves
caucus 		Resignation
as MLA 		Removed
from caucus 		Switching
allegiance 		Byelection
gain 		Byelection
hold
Saskatchewan 48 (1) (3) (3) (1) 1 1 42
New Democratic 13 (2) 2 1 14
Saskatchewan United – 1 1
Independent – 3 1 (1) 3
Vacant – 1 5 (3) (2) 1
Total 61 – – – – – – – 61
Changes in seats held (2020–2024)
Seat Before Change
Date Member Party Reason Date Member Party
Athabasca August 10, 2021 Buckley Belanger █ New Democratic Resignation[45] February 15, 2022 Jim Lemaigre[46] █ Saskatchewan
Saskatchewan Rivers September 30, 2021 Nadine Wilson █ Saskatchewan Resigned from caucus[47] █ Independent
November 30, 2022 █ Independent Designated as Sask United leader █ Sask. United
Saskatoon Meewasin July 1, 2022 Ryan Meili █ New Democratic Resignation[48] September 26, 2022 Nathaniel Teed █ New Democratic
Regina Coronation Park February 10, 2023 Mark Docherty █ Saskatchewan Resignation[49] August 10, 2023 Noor Burki[50] █ New Democratic
Lumsden-Morse March 10, 2023 Lyle Stewart █ Saskatchewan Resignation[51] August 10, 2023 Blaine McLeod[50] █ Saskatchewan
Regina Walsh Acres March 28, 2023 Derek Meyers █ Saskatchewan Died in office[52][53] August 10, 2023 Jared Clarke[50] █ New Democratic
Cut Knife-Turtleford November 17, 2023 Ryan Domotor █ Saskatchewan Removed from caucus █ Independent
Moose Jaw Wakamow January 30, 2024 Greg Lawrence █ Saskatchewan Resigned from caucus █ Independent
Biggar-Sask Valley May 15, 2024 Randy Weekes █ Saskatchewan Resigned from party, but remained as Speaker[54][55] █ Independent
Saskatoon Northwest June 10, 2024 Gordon Wyant █ Saskatchewan Resignation[56] █ Vacant

2020

[edit]

2022

[edit]

2023

[edit]

2024

[edit]
  • May 16: Nadine Wilson stepped down as leader of the Saskatchewan United Party, and Jon Hromek was appointed as the new leader.[61]
  • October 1: The election campaign begins.
  • October 12: Candidate nomination deadline at 2pm.
  • October 22–26: Voting week.[62]
  • October 28: Final day of voting, first preliminary count.[63] Saskatchewan Party wins fifth consecutive majority government.
  • October 30: Second preliminary count, mail-in ballots received by October 26 counted.[63]
  • November 9: Final count, mail-in ballots received between October 27 and November 7 counted along with all hospital and remand centre votes. Returning officers will be verifying the numbers in each electoral district.[63]

Candidates

[edit]

Nominations closed on October 12.

Candidates by Party

[edit]
Party Leader[64] Candidates
Saskatchewan Scott Moe 61
New Democratic Carla Beck 61
Green Naomi Hunter 58
Saskatchewan United Jon Hromek 31
Buffalo Philip Zajac 16
Progressive Conservative Rose Marie Buscholl 11
Progress Teunis Peters 3
Independent 2
Candidate contests[65]
Candidates
nominated		 Constituencies Party
Sask NDP Green SUP Buff PC Prog Ind Totals
3 18 18 18 16 1 1 54
4 27 27 27 26 16 5 4 2 1 108
5 15 15 15 15 13 9 6 1 1 75
6 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 6
Total 61 61 61 58 31 16 11 3 2 243

Incumbents not contesting their seats

[edit]
Retiring incumbents
Affiliation[a 1] MLA Constituency Held office
since
  Sask Steven Bonk[66] Moosomin 2016
Fred Bradshaw[67] Carrot River Valley 2007
Dustin Duncan[68] Weyburn-Big Muddy 2006
Ken Francis[69] Kindersley 2018
Marv Friesen[70] Saskatoon Riversdale 2020
Gary Grewal[71] Regina Northeast 2020
Joe Hargrave[72] Prince Albert Carlton 2016
Donna Harpauer[68] Humboldt-Watrous[a 2] 1999
Delbert Kirsch[67] Batoche 2003
Don McMorris[68] Indian Head-Milestone 1999
Don Morgan[67] Saskatoon Southeast 2003
Hugh Nerlien[70] Kelvington-Wadena 2016
Greg Ottenbreit[69] Yorkton 2007
Dana Skoropad[67] Arm River 2020
  NDP Jennifer Bowes[73] Saskatoon University 2020
Doyle Vermette[74] Cumberland 2008
  Independent Ryan Domotor[a 3][75] Cut Knife-Turtleford 2020
Greg Lawrence[a 3][76] Moose Jaw Wakamow 2011
Failed to secure renomination
  Sask Terry Dennis[77][78] Canora-Pelly 2016
  Independent Randy Weekes[a 3][a][b][79] Biggar-Sask Valley[a 4] 1999
  1. ^ At dissolution
  2. ^ Previously MLA for Watrous (1999-2003)
  3. ^ a b c Previously elected under the Saskatchewan Party banner
  4. ^ Previously MLA for Biggar (2003-2016) and Redberry Lake (1999-2003)

Candidates by riding

[edit]

Candidates in bold represent cabinet members and the Speaker of the Legislative Assembly. Party leaders are italicized. The symbol † indicates incumbent MLAs who are not running again. The symbol ‡ indicates incumbent MLAs who are running again in a different district.

Northwest Saskatchewan

[edit]
Electoral district Candidates Incumbent
Saskatchewan NDP SUP Buffalo Green
Athabasca Jim Lemaigre[80] Leroy Laliberte[81] Raven Reid[82] Jim Lemaigre
Cut Knife-Turtleford James Thorsteinson[83] Clayton Poole[84] Steve Gessner[85] Holly Ennis[82] Ryan Domotor†
Lloydminster Colleen Young[80] Adam Tremblay[86] Joshua Bloom[85] Patrick McNally[82] Colleen Young
Meadow Lake Jeremy Harrison[80] Miles Nachbaur[87] Denis Allchurch[88] Candice Turner[82] Jeremy Harrison
Rosthern-Shellbrook Scott Moe[80] Mark Thunderchild[89] Cody Lockhart[85] Janice Dongworth[82] Scott Moe
The Battlefords Jeremy Cockrill[80] Tom Kroczynski[84] Dale Richarson[90] Sara Piotrofsky[82] Jeremy Cockrill

Northeast Saskatchewan

[edit]
Electoral district Candidates Incumbent
Saskatchewan NDP SUP Green Other
Batoche Darlene Rowden[91] Trina Miller[92] Erin Nicole Spencer[85] Hamish Graham[82] Delbert Kirsch†
Canora-Pelly Sean Wilson[93] Wynn Fedorchuk[94] Casimira Rimando[82] Niall Schofield (Buff.)[90] Terry Dennis†
Carrot River Valley Terri Bromm[80] CJ Binkley[84] Shauna Stanley Seymour[85] Liam Becker Lau[82] Fred Bradshaw†
Cumberland Gregory Seib[95] Jordan McPhail[84] Siwichis Bird-Paddy[82] Nasser Dean Chalifoux (Ind.)[96] Doyle Vermette†
Kelvington-Wadena Chris Beaudry[97] Lorne Schroeder[98] Clint Gottinger[85] Gillian Halyk[82] Hugh Nerlien†
Melfort Todd Goudy[80] Melanie Dyck[84] Dave Moore[99] Tristan St. Germain[82] Todd Goudy
Prince Albert Carlton Kevin Kasun[100] Carolyn Brost Strom[84] Denneil Carpenter[85] Andrew Muirhead[82] Joe Hargrave†
Prince Albert Northcote Alana Ross[80] Nicole Rancourt[84] Terri Davis[101] Jarren Jones[82] Alana Ross
Saskatchewan Rivers Eric Schmalz[80] Doug Racine[84] Nadine Wilson[61] Alesha Bruce[82] Bernard Lalonde (P.C.)[102] Nadine Wilson

West Central Saskatchewan

[edit]
Electoral district Candidates Incumbent
Saskatchewan NDP SUP Buffalo Green Other
Dakota-Arm River Barret Kropf[103] Jordan Wiens[84] Darren Ebenal[85] Joseph Reynolds[82] Raymond L. Carrick (P.C.)[104] Dana Skoropad†
Arm River
Humboldt-Watrous Racquel Hilbert[105] Kevin Fallis[84] Carrie Ann Hradecki[106] Megan Christianson[96] Sharon Thibault[82] Rose Buscholl (P.C.)[107] Donna Harpauer†
Kindersley-Biggar Kim Gartner[108] Cindy Hoppe[84] Jeff Wortman[90] Darcy Robilliard[82] Wade Sira (Ind.)[99] Ken Francis†
Kindersley
Martensville-Blairmore Jamie Martens[109] Tammy Pike[84] Brittney Ricottone[82] Terry Jenson‡
Martensville-Warman
Rosetown-Delisle Jim Reiter[80] Brenda Edel[84] Sean Muirhead[82] Jim Reiter
Rosetown-Elrose
Warman Terry Jenson[80] Erica Baerwald[84] Andrea Early[85] Mark Friesen[99] Adriana Hackl Pinno[82] Randy Weekes†
Biggar-Sask Valley

Southwest Saskatchewan

[edit]
Electoral district Candidates Incumbent
Saskatchewan NDP Green Other
Cypress Hills Doug Steele[80] Clare McNab[84] Doug Wilson (Buff.)[90] Doug Steele
Lumsden-Morse Blaine McLeod[91] Chauntel Baudu[110] Isaiah Hunter[82] Jon Hromek (SUP)[61] Blaine McLeod
Megan Torrie (P.C.)[111]
Moose Jaw North Tim McLeod[80] Cheantelle Fisher[84] Kimberly Epp[82] Tim McLeod
Moose Jaw Wakamow Megan Patterson[91] Melissa Patterson[84] Michael Gardiner[82] Greg Lawrence†
Swift Current Everett Hindley[80] Jay Kimball[84] George Watson[82] Constance P Maffenbeier (Buff.)[90] Everett Hindley
Wood River David Marit[80] Mike Topola[84] Melvin Pylychuk[82] Clint Arnason (P.C.)[112] Dave Marit
Todd McIntyre (SUP)[85]

Southeast Saskatchewan

[edit]
Electoral district Candidates Incumbent
Saskatchewan NDP SUP Buffalo Green
Cannington Daryl Harrison[80] Dianne Twietmeyer[84] Barbara Helfrick[99] Michelle Krieger[91] Natalie Lund-Clysdale[82] Daryl Harrison
Estevan-Big Muddy Lori Carr[80] Phil Smith[84] Andrew Cey[85] Phillip Zajac[91] Billy Patterson[82] Lori Carr
Estevan
Last Mountain-Touchwood Travis Keisig[80] Thera Nordal[98] Gene Unruh[85] Elvin Mandziak[99] Travis Keisig
Melville-Saltcoats Warren Kaeding[80] Karen Hovind[84] Curtis Brooks[85] Frank Serfas[99] Micah Mang[82] Warren Kaeding
Moosomin-Montmartre Kevin Weedmark[113] Chris Ball[84] Adam Erickson[85] Otis Ayre[90] Remi Rheault[82] Steven Bonk†
Moosomin
Weyburn-Bengough Michael Weger[114] Seth Lendrum[84] Rose McInnes[85] Andrew Shanaida[90] North Hunter[82] Dustin Duncan†
Weyburn-Big Muddy
White City-Qu'appelle Brad Crassweller[115] Grady Birns[84] Darcy Thiele[85] Don McMorris†
Indian Head-Milestone
Yorkton David Chan[116] Lenore Pinder[84] Doug Forster[85] Timothy Kasprick[96] Valerie Brooks[82] Greg Ottenbreit†

Saskatoon East

[edit]
Electoral district Candidates Incumbent
Saskatchewan NDP SUP Green Progress
Saskatoon Churchill-Wildwood Lisa Lambert[80] Keith Jorgenson[84] Morgan McAdam[82] Lisa Lambert
Saskatoon Eastview Francis Kreiser[117] Matt Love[84] Brad McAvoy[85] Kendra Anderson[82] Matt Love
Saskatoon Nutana Mumtaz Naseeb[118] Erika Ritchie[84] Whitney Greenleaf[82] Erika Ritchie
Saskatoon Silverspring Paul Merriman[80] Hugh Gordon[84] Jackie Hanson[82] Paul Merriman
Saskatoon Silverspring-Sutherland
Saskatoon Southeast John Owojori[119] Brittney Senger[84] Greg Brkich[88] Mohammad Abushar[82] Don Morgan†
Saskatoon Stonebridge Bronwyn Eyre[80] Darcy Warrington[84] Cheryl Mazil[82] Jahangir J Valiani[120] Bronwyn Eyre
Saskatoon Stonebridge-Dakota
Saskatoon University-Sutherland Ghislaine McLeod[121] Tajinder Grewal[84] Dawne Badrock[85] Felipe Guerra[82] Jennifer Bowes†
Saskatoon University
Saskatoon Willowgrove Ken Cheveldayoff[80] Alana Wakula[84] William Hughes[85] Tawe Morin[82] Ken Cheveldayoff

Saskatoon West

[edit]
Electoral district Candidates Incumbent
Saskatchewan NDP Green Buffalo
Saskatoon Centre Dale Hrynuik[122] Betty Nippi-Albright[84] Darry Michelle[82] Betty Nippi-Albright
Saskatoon Chief Mistawasis Parminder Singh[123] Don McBean[84] Shane Caellaigh[82] Vacant
Saskatoon Northwest
Saskatoon Fairview Zahid Sandhu[124] Vicki Mowat[84] Phoenix Neault[82] Tony Ollenberger[90] Vicki Mowat
Saskatoon Meewasin Maureen Alice Torr[125] Nathaniel Teed[84] Jacklin Andrews[82] Nathaniel Teed
Saskatoon Riversdale Olu Fakoyejo[126] Kim Breckner[84] Naomi Hunter[82] Marv Friesen†
Saskatoon Westview David Buckingham[80] April ChiefCalf[84] Jupiter Neault[82] David Buckingham

Regina

[edit]
Electoral district Candidates Incumbent
Saskatchewan NDP Green PC Other
Regina Coronation Park Riaz Ahmad[127] Noor Burki[84] Maria Krznar[82] Olasehinde Ben Adebayo[128] Noor Burki
Regina Douglas Park Ken Grey[129] Nicole Sarauer[84] Victor Lau[82] Nicole Sarauer
Regina Elphinstone-Centre Caesar Khan[130] Meara Conway[84] Jim Elliott[82] Nathan Bruce (Prog.)[99] Meara Conway
Pamela Carpenter (SUP)[85]
Regina Lakeview Sarah Wright[131] Carla Beck[84] Heather MacNeill[82] Victor Teece[132] Carla Beck
Regina Mount Royal Jaspreet Mander[133] Trent Wotherspoon[84] Regina Demyen[82] Trent Wotherspoon
Regina Rosemont
Regina Northeast Rahul Singh[134] Jacqueline Roy[84] Anthony Thomas Majore[82] Kate Tremblay (Prog.)[135] Gary Grewal†
Regina Pasqua Muhammad Fiaz[80] Bhajan Brar[84] Ekaterina Cabylis[82] Justin Parnell[136] Shannon Chapple (Buff.)[90] Muhammad Fiaz
Regina Rochdale Laura Ross[91] Joan Pratchler[84] Irene Browatzke[82] Laura Ross
Regina South Albert Khushdil (Lucky) Mehrok[91] Aleana Young[84] Leonie Williams[82] David Teece[137] Aleana Young
Regina University
Regina University Gene Makowsky[80] Sally Housser[84] Cedar Park[82] Corie Rempel[138] Gene Makowsky
Regina Gardiner Park
Regina Walsh Acres Liaqat Ali[139] Jared Clarke[84] Dianna Holigroski[82] Bonnie Farrell (SUP)[99] Jared Clarke
Regina Wascana Plains Christine Tell[80] Brent Blakley[84] Bo Chen[82] Larry Buchinski[140] Dustin Plett (SUP)[85] Christine Tell

Opinion polls

[edit]

Polling firm Client Dates conducted Source SK Party NDP Buffalo Green PC Progress United Others Margin
of error 		Sample
size 		Polling method Lead
2024 general election Oct 28, 2024 — 52.4% 40.2% 0.8% 1.8% 1.0% 0.2% 4.0% 0.1% — — — 12.2%
Forum Research N/A Oct 25–27, 2024 [p 1] 46% 49% — 2.1% — — — 2.9% 3.0% 2,934 Smart IVR 3%
Research Co. N/A Oct 25–27, 2024 [p 2] 46% 48% — — — — — 5% 4.5% 500 Online 2%
Liason Strategies NEPMCC Oct 24–25, 2024 [p 3] 46% 49% — — — — — 5% 3.63% 729 Smart IVR 3%
Mainstreet Research N/A Oct 22–24, 2024 [p 4] 45% 49% — — — — — 7% 3.4% 820 Smart IVR 4%
Insightrix CTV News Oct 18–20, 2024 [p 5] 45% 50% — — — — — 5% 3.5% 802 Online 5%
Cardinal Research N/A Oct 9–24, 2024 [p 6] 49% 43% 1% — — — 3% 3% 3.5% 798 Telephone 6%
Research Co. N/A Oct 7–9, 2024 [p 7] 51% 43% — 3% — — — 2% 4.8% 500 Online 8%
Janet Brown Opinion Research/Trend Research CUPE Saskatchewan Sep 23 – Oct 3, 2024 [p 8] 45% 40% 1% 1% 2% 1% 1% 0% 3.5% 800 Telephone 5%
Mainstreet Research N/A Sep 14–17, 2024 [p 9] 50% 40% — — — — — 11% 3.3% 857 Smart IVR 10%
Insightrix CTV News Sep 10–12, 2024 [p 10] 48% 49% — — — — — 4% 3.3% 806 Online 1%
Angus Reid N/A Aug 16–20, 2024 [p 11][p 12] 49% 42% — — — — 5% 4% 3% 802 Online 7%
Insightrix N/A July 23–26, 2024 [p 13] 47% 48% — — — — — 5% 3.3% 860 Online 1%
May 16, 2024 Nadine Wilson steps down as leader of the Saskatchewan United Party and Jon Hromek is appointed as the new leader.
Angus Reid N/A Feb 28 – Mar 12, 2024 [p 14][p 15] 50% 38% — 1% — — 6% 5% 4% 504 Online 12%
Insightrix N/A Feb 6–8, 2024 [p 16] 47% 49% — — — — — 4% 3.5% 800 Online 2%
Angus Reid N/A Nov 24 – Dec 1, 2023 [p 17] 52% 39% — — — 3% — 6% 5% 350 Online 13%
Insightrix The SKoop Oct 4–6, 2023 [p 18][p 19] 51% 45% — — — — — 4% 3.5% 801 Online 6%
Aug 10, 2023 By-elections were held in Regina Coronation Park, Regina Walsh Acres, and Lumsden-Morse.
July 19, 2023 The Saskatchewan Liberal Party changes their party name to the Saskatchewan Progress Party.
Insightrix The SKoop July 11–14, 2023 [p 20][p 21] 45% 36% 2% 2% 10% 2% 3% 1% 3.5% 803 Online 9%
Insightrix The SKoop Apr 11–13, 2023 [p 22][p 23][p 24][p 25] 46% 37% 3% 2% 6% 3% 2% — 3.5% 803 Online 9%
Nov 30, 2022 The Saskatchewan United Party becomes a registered party, and Nadine Wilson becomes the party's first MLA.
Sep 26, 2022 A by-election was held in Saskatoon Meewasin.
June 26, 2022 Carla Beck becomes leader of the NDP.
Angus Reid N/A Jun 07–13, 2022 [p 26][p 27] 57% 34% — 1% — 2% — 6% 4% 513 Online 23%
Angus Reid N/A Mar 10–15, 2022 [p 28][p 29] 54% 36% — 2% — 2% — 6% 4% 602 Online 18%
Research Co. N/A Feb 19–23, 2022 [p 30] 53% 37% 3% 2% 2% 1% — 1% 3.5% 808 Online 16%
Feb 18, 2022 Ryan Meili announces his intention to step down as leader of the NDP.
Feb 15, 2022 A by-election was held in Athabasca.
Angus Reid N/A Jan 7–12, 2022 [p 31][p 32] 48% 39% — 1% — 2% — 10% 5% 415 Online 9%
Angus Reid N/A Sep 29–Oct 3, 2021 [p 33] 52% 35% — 1% — 2% — 9% 2% 505 Online 17%
Angus Reid N/A Jun 2–7, 2021 [p 34] 57% 31% — 3% — 2% — 8% 4% 412 Online 26%
Leger Common Ground Mar 1–8, 2021 [p 35] 41.5% 36.3% 4.5% 3.9% 7.3% 6.2% — 0.2% N/A 802 Online 5.3%
Angus Reid N/A Nov 24–30, 2020 [p 36] 58% 27% — 3% — 1% — 11% 1.4% 459 Online 29%
2020 general election Oct 26, 2020 — 60.7% 31.8% 2.6% 2.3% 1.9% 0.1% — 0.2% — — — 28.9%

Results

[edit]

Although public opinion polling in the latter half of the campaign suggested that the NDP was leading the Saskatchewan Party in popular support, it remained unclear whether this would translate into a majority government, as their lead was based entirely on being ahead in Regina and Saskatoon while remaining ten points or more behind in the province's more rural districts.[141]

Taking nearly all rural ridings and two in Saskatoon (Saskatoon Willowgrove, and Martensville-Blairmore—which includes the Blairmore neighbourhood of Saskatoon), the Saskatchewan Party won enough seats to form its fifth consecutive majority government. If the Saskatchewan Party completes a full four years in office, it will be the second-longest streak of party control in Saskatchewan, exceeded only by the Liberal governments of 1905–1929.[142][1][2][3] The NDP reduced the Saskatchewan Party's majority from eleven seats at dissolution to three, taking all of Regina and all but two ridings in Saskatoon. Only one Saskatoon-based Saskatchewan Party MLA, Ken Cheveldayoff, won re-election.[143]

The NDP achieved upset victories over several long-standing Saskatchewan Party MLAs and ministers, including Bronwyn Eyre, Gene Makowsky, Paul Merriman, Laura Ross, and Christine Tell.The NDP also reclaimed the far northern seat of Athabasca, a party stronghold which the party had unexpectedly lost to the Saskatchewan Party in a 2022 by-election, but did not otherwise make any new gains in the province's rural districts.[144] The Saskatchewan United Party failed to win any seats, and lost its sole seat—held by party founder and former leader Nadine Wilson in the Saskatchewan Rivers riding—to the Saskatchewan Party candidate Eric Schmalz.[145]

Of the 32,476 mail-in ballots requested, only 20,417 had been returned by October 30. The remaining 12,059 must be received by November 7 (two days before the Final Count) in order to be validly entered into the total result.[146] There may yet be judicial recounts: under Saskatchewan law, they may only be requested by a candidate, and only if there is a tie or where the margin of victory is less than the number of rejected ballots and others objected to.[146]

Opinion poll sources

[edit]
  1. ^ "NDP holds narrow lead over Saskatchewan Party on eve of SK election". Forum Research. October 28, 2024. Retrieved October 28, 2024.
  2. ^ Canseco, Mario (October 28, 2024). "Late Surge Gives Saskatchewan Its Closest Election Since 2003". Research Co.
  3. ^ "SK NDP Leads Saskatchewan Party, 49% to 46%". Liaison Strategies. October 26, 2024.
  4. ^ "Mainstreet Research Survey - Saskatchewan" (PDF). Mainstreet Research. October 25, 2024. Retrieved October 26, 2024.
  5. ^ "Saskatchewan NDP gaining momentum among decided voters, new poll says". CTV News Regina. Bell Media. October 22, 2024. Retrieved October 22, 2024.
  6. ^ "Saskatchewan Provincial Polling, October 9-24, 2024 – Cardinal Research".
  7. ^ "Ruling Party Stays Ahead of Opposition NDP in Saskatchewan". Research Co. October 11, 2024. Retrieved October 11, 2024.
  8. ^ "CUPE Saskatchewan - Election Survey -" (PDF). Janet Brown Opinion Research. September 16, 2024. Retrieved October 16, 2024.
  9. ^ "Mainstreet Research Survey - Saskatchewan" (PDF). Mainstreet Research. September 19, 2024. Retrieved September 30, 2024.
  10. ^ Davenport, Cole (September 25, 2024). "Sask. Party, NDP entering tight race in fall election, new poll says". CTV News Regina. Bell Media. Retrieved September 30, 2024.
  11. ^ "Election 2024: Saskatchewan Party maintains lead over the opposition NDP, but the gap is narrowing". Angus Reid Institute. August 22, 2024. Archived from the original on August 22, 2024. Retrieved August 22, 2024.
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  14. ^ "Saskatchewan Spotlight: Sask Party preferred on top issues, hold double-digit vote intention lead". Angus Reid Institute. March 15, 2024. Archived from the original on March 15, 2024. Retrieved March 15, 2024.
  15. ^ "2024.03.14_Sask_Final_Tables.pdf" (PDF). Angus Reid Institute. Archived (PDF) from the original on March 15, 2024. Retrieved March 15, 2024.
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  17. ^ "Saskatchewan: Majority support government's gender & pronoun policy but half also say exceptions needed" (PDF). Angus Reid Institute. June 12, 2023. Archived (PDF) from the original on December 7, 2023. Retrieved June 12, 2023.
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  24. ^ Richardson, Dale (April 21, 2023). "Sask. Party Leads NDP in New Poll, Sask. United Registers Barely Any Support". The SKoop. Archived from the original on July 21, 2023. Retrieved July 21, 2023.
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  26. ^ "Prairie Politics: Moe and Stefanson share a border, but residents' government satisfaction is worlds apart". Angus Reid Institute. July 8, 2022. Archived from the original on July 8, 2022. Retrieved July 8, 2022.
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  28. ^ "Provincial spotlight: Ontario, Alberta governments heavily criticized on nearly every aspect of provincial management". Angus Reid Institute. March 31, 2022. Archived from the original on March 31, 2022. Retrieved March 31, 2022.
  29. ^ "Detailed Results" (PDF). Angus Reid Institute. March 31, 2022. Archived (PDF) from the original on March 31, 2022. Retrieved March 31, 2022.
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  31. ^ "Spotlight on Provincial Politics" (PDF). Angus Reid. January 20, 2022. Archived (PDF) from the original on January 20, 2022. Retrieved January 20, 2022.
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  33. ^ "Provincial Spotlight" (PDF). Angus Reid. October 27, 2021. Archived (PDF) from the original on October 27, 2021. Retrieved October 27, 2021.
  34. ^ "Premiers' Performance: Ford and Kenney's popularity & political fortunes bear brunt of pandemic management" (PDF). angusreid.org. Archived from the original (PDF) on June 10, 2021.
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Notes

[edit]
  1. ^ Currently Speaker of the Legislative Assembly of Saskatchewan.
  2. ^ The Biggar-Sask Valley constituency was eliminated following redistribution, prompting Weekes, then a Saskatchewan Party MLA, to seek the party's nomination in Kindersley-Biggar, which includes a portion of the former Biggar-Sask Valley constituency. Weekes later left the Saskatchewan Party after losing the nomination.

References

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  116. ^ Walchuk, Benny (March 8, 2024). "Chan named Sask. Party candidate in Yorkton for 2024 Provincial Election". CKRM. Harvard Media. Archived from the original on March 8, 2024. Retrieved March 8, 2024.
  117. ^ "Francis Kreiser Wins Contested Nomination in Saskatoon Eastview". Saskatchewan Party. July 4, 2024. Archived from the original on July 5, 2024. Retrieved July 4, 2024.
  118. ^ "Mumtaz Naseeb Acclaimed as the Saskatchewan Party candidate for Saskatoon Nutana". Saskatchewan Party. July 11, 2024. Archived from the original on July 12, 2024. Retrieved July 11, 2024.
  119. ^ "John Owojori Wins Contested Nomination in Saskatoon Southeast". Saskatchewan Party. April 15, 2024. Archived from the original on May 23, 2024. Retrieved April 15, 2024.
  120. ^ "Saskatchewan Progress Party names Jahangir Valiani as candidate for Saskatoon Stonebridge". Facebook. Saskatchewan Progress Party. October 4, 2024. Retrieved October 7, 2024.
  121. ^ "Ghislaine McLeod Wins Contested Nomination in Saskatoon University-Sutherland". Saskatchewan Party. March 26, 2024. Archived from the original on March 27, 2024. Retrieved March 26, 2024.
  122. ^ "Tonight, Dale Hrynuik was acclaimed as the Saskatchewan Party candidate for Saskatoon Centre in the 2024 provincial election". Twitter. Saskatchewan Party. August 12, 2024. Archived from the original on September 17, 2024. Retrieved August 13, 2024.
  123. ^ "Parminder Singh Wins Contested Nomination in Saskatoon Chief Mistawasis". Saskatchewan Party. May 21, 2024. Archived from the original on May 22, 2024. Retrieved May 21, 2024.
  124. ^ "Zahid Sandhu Acclaimed as 2024 Saskatchewan Party Candidate for Saskatoon Fairview". Saskatchewan Party. June 27, 2024. Archived from the original on June 28, 2024. Retrieved June 28, 2024.
  125. ^ "Maureen Alice Torr Acclaimed as 2024 Saskatchewan Party Candidate for Saskatoon Meewasin". Saskatchewan Party. April 10, 2024. Retrieved April 10, 2024.
  126. ^ "Olugbenga Fakoyejo Wins Contested Nomination in Saskatoon Riversdale". Saskatchewan Party. August 22, 2024. Archived from the original on August 26, 2024. Retrieved August 26, 2024.
  127. ^ "Riaz Ahmad Acclaimed as 2024 Saskatchewan Party Candidate for Regina Coronation Park". Saskatchewan Party. March 19, 2024. Archived from the original on March 20, 2024. Retrieved March 19, 2024.
  128. ^ "The constituency of Regina-Coronation Park has nominated Olasehinde Ben Adebayo to be their Progressive Conservative Party of Saskatchewan candidate in the 2024 provincial election". X. Progressive Conservative Party of Saskatchewan. July 2, 2024. Archived from the original on September 17, 2024. Retrieved July 2, 2024.
  129. ^ "Ken Grey Acclaimed as 2024 Saskatchewan Party Candidate for Regina Douglas Park". Saskatchewan Party. September 9, 2024. Archived from the original on September 10, 2024. Retrieved September 10, 2024.
  130. ^ "Caesar Khan Acclaimed as 2024 Saskatchewan Party Candidate for Regina Elphinstone-Centre". Saskatchewan Party. August 7, 2024. Archived from the original on August 8, 2024. Retrieved August 8, 2024.
  131. ^ "Sarah Wright Acclaimed as 2024 Saskatchewan Party Candidate for Regina Lakeview". Saskatchewan Party. June 10, 2024. Archived from the original on September 17, 2024. Retrieved June 10, 2024.
  132. ^ "The constituency of Regina-Lakeview has nominated Victor Teece to be their Progressive Conservative Party of Saskatchewan candidate in the 2024 provincial election". Twitter. Progressive Conservative Party of Saskatchewan. June 14, 2024. Archived from the original on September 17, 2024. Retrieved June 14, 2024.
  133. ^ "Jaspreet Mander Acclaimed as 2024 Saskatchewan Party Candidate for Regina Mount Royal". Saskatchewan Party. July 8, 2024. Archived from the original on July 9, 2024. Retrieved July 8, 2024.
  134. ^ "Rahul Singh Acclaimed as 2024 Saskatchewan Party Candidate for Regina Northeast". Saskatchewan Party. March 14, 2024. Archived from the original on March 15, 2024. Retrieved March 14, 2024.
  135. ^ "We are excited to announce the nomination of Kate Tremblay, our candidate for Regina Northeast!". Twitter. Saskatchewan Progress Party. September 16, 2024. Archived from the original on September 17, 2024. Retrieved September 17, 2024.
  136. ^ "The constituency of Regina-Pasqua has nominated Justin Parnell to be their Progressive Conservative Party of Saskatchewan candidate in the 2024 provincial election". X. Progressive Conservative Party of Saskatchewan. June 25, 2024. Archived from the original on September 17, 2024. Retrieved June 25, 2024.
  137. ^ "The constituency of Regina-South Albert has nominated David Teece to be their Progressive Conservative Party of Saskatchewan candidate in the 2024 provincial election". Twitter. Progressive Conservative Party of Saskatchewan. September 25, 2024. Retrieved September 26, 2024.
  138. ^ "The constituency of Regina-University has nominated Corie Rempel to be their Progressive Conservative Party of Saskatchewan candidate in the 2024 provincial election". Twitter. Progressive Conservative Party of Saskatchewan. June 7, 2024. Archived from the original on September 17, 2024. Retrieved June 7, 2024.
  139. ^ "Liaqat Ali Acclaimed as 2024 Saskatchewan Party Candidate for Regina Walsh Acres". Saskatchewan Party. August 6, 2024. Archived from the original on August 8, 2024. Retrieved August 8, 2024.
  140. ^ "The constituency of Regina-Wascana Plains has nominated Larry Buchinski to be their Progressive Conservative Party of Saskatchewan candidate in the 2024 provincial election". X. Progressive Conservative Party of Saskatchewan. June 12, 2024. Archived from the original on September 17, 2024. Retrieved June 12, 2024.
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  143. ^ Drew Postey, "Sask. Party avoids NDP sweep in Saskatoon with Ken Cheveldayoff win". CTV Regina, October 30, 2024.
  144. ^ "Here are the upsets of Saskatchewan's 2024 election". Regina. October 29, 2024. Retrieved October 29, 2024.
  145. ^ "NDP sweeps most Saskatoon ridings". SaskToday.ca. October 29, 2024. Retrieved October 29, 2024.
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