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2008 United States presidential election in West Virginia

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2008 United States presidential election in West Virginia

← 2004 November 4, 2008 2012 →
 
Nominee John McCain Barack Obama
Party Republican Democratic
Home state Arizona Illinois
Running mate Sarah Palin Joe Biden
Electoral vote 5 0
Popular vote 397,466 303,857
Percentage 55.60% 42.51%


President before election

George W. Bush
Republican

Elected President

Barack Obama
Democratic

The 2008 United States presidential election in West Virginia took place on November 4, 2008, and was part of the 2008 United States presidential election. Voters chose 5 representatives, or electors to the Electoral College, who voted for president and vice president.

West Virginia was won by Republican nominee John McCain by a 13.1% margin of victory. Prior to the election, all 17 news organizations considered this a state McCain would win, or otherwise considered as a safe red state. Despite its past voting record of heavily favoring Democratic presidential nominees, the state had since 2000 been trending more Republican in presidential elections. Obama became the first Democratic presidential nominee since Woodrow Wilson in 1916 to win the nationwide presidential election without carrying West Virginia, and in that election Wilson had managed to win a single electoral vote, making Obama the first Democrat to win without carrying any electoral votes from the state. Obama also became the first Democrat since 1928 to lose Logan County, a strongly unionized coal-dependent county that was the only county in West Virginia to vote for George McGovern in his landslide 1972 loss.

As of the 2020 presidential election, this is the last time that the Democratic presidential nominee won any county in West Virginia including Boone, Braxton, Jefferson, Marion, McDowell, Monongalia and Webster. This is also the last presidential election in which the Democratic nominee received more than 40% of the vote in West Virginia. West Virginia was one of five states where Obama underperformed Kerry, the others being Arkansas, Louisiana, Oklahoma, and Tennessee.

Primaries

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Campaign

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Predictions

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There were 16 news organizations who made state-by-state predictions of the election. Here are their last predictions before election day:

Source Ranking
D.C. Political Report[1] Likely R
Cook Political Report[2] Lean R
The Takeaway[3] Lean R
Electoral-vote.com[4] Lean R
Washington Post[5] Lean R
Politico[6] Solid R
RealClearPolitics[7] Lean R
FiveThirtyEight[5] Lean R
CQ Politics[8] Lean R
The New York Times[9] Lean R
CNN[10] Lean R
NPR[5] Lean R
MSNBC[5] Lean R
Fox News[11] Likely R
Associated Press[12] Likely R
Rasmussen Reports[13] Safe R

Polling

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McCain lead in 16 of 17 pre-election polls. The final three polls showed McCain leading by an average of 53% to 41%.[14]

Fundraising

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John McCain raised a total of $291,184 in the state. Barack Obama raised $713,231.

Advertising and visits

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Obama and his interest groups spent $1,437,178. McCain and his interest groups spent $1,920,720.[15] Each ticket visited the state once.[16]

Analysis

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More than any other state, West Virginia highlighted Obama's trouble in Appalachian America. It swung heavily to the Democrats during the days of Franklin D. Roosevelt and remained reliably Democratic for most of the next 68 years. During that time, it only voted Republican three times, all in national Republican landslides--1956, 1972 and 1984. It also voted for Democrats (such as Jimmy Carter and Michael Dukakis) who went on to big national defeats. This was largely due to its blue-collar, heavily unionized workers, especially coal miners, who favored Democratic economic policy.

Starting with the campaign of Al Gore, however, the state's voters became more concerned with the national Democratic Party's perceived hostility toward the coal industry, which is a core part of the West Virginia economy. As a result, the state has been trending Republican in national elections. In 2008, neither presidential nominee campaigned heavily in the state.

Election results

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On Election Day, McCain won West Virginia by 13.09 points while losing nationwide. McCain did well throughout the state, losing only a handful of counties. While his margins were best in the more conservative northern part of the state, he also improved significantly in Southern West Virginia. This coal-mining, union-heavy region was one of the most heavily Democratic places in the nation; Logan County, for example, cast 72% of its ballot for Bill Clinton.[17] In 2008, however, John McCain won the county by double digits, becoming the first Republican to win it since Herbert Hoover in 1928.

On the other hand, Barack Obama did make gains in the area between Maryland and Virginia, counties which are a part of the Washington Metropolitan Area. Obama also ran close in Central West Virginia (the counties around the capital Charleston). Despite the recent Republican success nationally, Democrats still dominated at the state and local levels. After the 2008 election, Democrats held the governorship and every statewide office, two out of the state's three congressional districts in the U.S. House of Representatives, both U.S. Senate seats and supermajorities in both chambers of the state legislature.[18]

Other elections

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During the same election, popular incumbent Democratic Governor Joe Manchin III was soundly reelected to a second term with 69.79% of the vote over Republican Russ Weeks, who took in 25.75%, while Jesse Johnson of the Mountain Party received 4.46%. Incumbent Democratic U.S. Senator Jay Rockefeller IV was also soundly reelected with 63.71% of the vote over Republican Jay Wolfe, who took in 36.27%. At the state level, Democrats picked up three seats in the West Virginia Senate, while Republicans picked up one seat in the West Virginia House of Delegates.

Results

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2008 United States presidential election in West Virginia[19]
Party Candidate Running mate Popular vote Electoral vote Swing
Count % Count %
Republican John McCain of Arizona Sarah Palin of Alaska 397,466 55.60% 5 100.00% Decrease0.48%
Democratic Barack Obama of Illinois Joe Biden of Delaware 303,857 42.51% 0 0.00% Decrease0.71%
Independent Ralph Nader of Connecticut Matt Gonzalez of California 7,219 1.01% 0 0.00% Increase0.47%
Constitution Chuck Baldwin of Florida Darrell Castle of Tennessee 2,465 0.34% 0 0.00% Increase0.34%
Mountain Cynthia McKinney of Georgia Rosa Clemente of North Carolina 2,355 0.33% 0 0.00% Increase0.33%
Write-in Various candidates 1,761 0.25% 0 0.00% Increase0.24%
Total 713,451 100.00% 5 100.00%

By county

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County John McCain
Republican
Barack Obama
Democratic
Various candidates
Other parties
Margin Total
# % # % # % # %
Barbour 3,685 59.13% 2,419 38.82% 128 2.06% 1,266 20.31% 6,232
Berkeley 20,841 55.72% 15,994 42.76% 565 1.51% 4,847 12.96% 37,400
Boone 3,632 43.39% 4,529 54.11% 209 2.50% -897 -10.72% 8,370
Braxton 2,629 48.55% 2,704 49.94% 82 1.52% -75 -1.39% 5,415
Brooke 4,961 50.33% 4,717 47.85% 179 1.81% 244 2.48% 9,857
Cabell 18,793 54.11% 15,292 44.03% 647 1.86% 3,501 10.08% 34,732
Calhoun 1,366 56.24% 993 40.88% 70 2.88% 373 15.36% 2,429
Clay 1,755 53.75% 1,421 43.52% 89 2.73% 334 10.23% 3,265
Doddridge 2,218 73.49% 735 24.35% 65 2.16% 1,483 49.14% 3,018
Fayette 7,658 50.40% 7,242 47.66% 294 1.94% 416 2.74% 15,194
Gilmer 1,445 57.32% 1,004 39.83% 72 2.85% 441 17.49% 2,521
Grant 3,166 75.06% 997 23.64% 55 1.30% 2,169 51.42% 4,218
Greenbrier 7,567 55.10% 5,881 42.83% 284 2.07% 1,686 12.27% 13,732
Hampshire 5,222 62.56% 2,983 35.74% 142 1.70% 2,239 26.82% 8,347
Hancock 7,518 56.87% 5,504 41.63% 198 1.50% 2,014 15.24% 13,220
Hardy 3,376 62.44% 1,901 35.16% 130 2.40% 1,475 27.28% 5,407
Harrison 17,824 55.56% 13,582 42.34% 672 2.10% 4,242 13.22% 32,078
Jackson 7,148 58.42% 4,861 39.73% 227 1.85% 2,287 18.69% 12,236
Jefferson 10,600 46.78% 11,687 51.58% 372 1.64% -1,087 -4.80% 22,659
Kanawha 40,952 49.41% 40,594 48.98% 1,341 1.61% 358 0.43% 82,887
Lewis 4,335 65.60% 2,109 31.92% 164 2.48% 2,226 33.68% 6,608
Lincoln 3,637 53.21% 3,029 44.32% 169 2.47% 608 8.89% 6,835
Logan 7,326 54.17% 5,873 43.43% 325 2.40% 1,453 10.74% 13,524
Marion 11,501 48.45% 11,618 48.94% 621 2.61% -117 -0.49% 23,740
Marshall 7,759 55.42% 5,996 42.83% 246 1.75% 1,763 12.59% 14,001
Mason 5,853 55.20% 4,484 42.29% 266 2.51% 1,369 12.91% 10,603
McDowell 2,882 44.82% 3,430 53.34% 118 1.84% -548 -8.52% 6,430
Mercer 13,246 62.81% 7,450 35.33% 393 1.86% 5,796 27.48% 21,089
Mineral 7,616 65.96% 3,750 32.48% 181 1.56% 3,866 33.48% 11,547
Mingo 4,587 55.01% 3,582 42.96% 169 2.03% 1,005 12.05% 8,338
Monongalia 15,775 46.99% 17,060 50.82% 734 2.19% -1,285 -3.83% 33,569
Monroe 3,397 60.93% 2,014 36.13% 164 2.94% 1,383 24.80% 5,575
Morgan 4,428 60.86% 2,721 37.40% 127 1.74% 1,707 23.46% 7,276
Nicholas 4,804 51.32% 4,357 46.54% 200 2.14% 447 4.78% 9,361
Ohio 10,694 54.73% 8,593 43.98% 253 1.29% 2,101 10.75% 19,540
Pendleton 2,035 59.94% 1,310 38.59% 50 1.47% 725 21.35% 3,395
Pleasants 1,772 59.56% 1,142 38.39% 61 2.05% 630 21.17% 2,975
Pocahontas 2,011 55.22% 1,548 42.50% 83 2.28% 463 12.72% 3,642
Preston 7,325 62.10% 4,205 35.65% 266 2.25% 3,120 26.45% 11,796
Putnam 15,162 60.92% 9,334 37.51% 391 1.57% 5,828 23.41% 24,887
Raleigh 17,548 62.10% 10,237 36.23% 474 1.67% 7,311 25.87% 28,259
Randolph 6,060 55.94% 4,539 41.90% 234 2.16% 1,521 14.04% 10,833
Ritchie 2,781 72.31% 998 25.95% 67 1.74% 1,783 46.36% 3,846
Roane 2,943 52.78% 2,511 45.03% 122 2.19% 432 7.75% 5,576
Summers 2,891 54.38% 2,290 43.08% 135 2.54% 601 11.30% 5,316
Taylor 3,605 58.12% 2,462 39.69% 136 2.19% 1,143 18.43% 6,203
Tucker 2,123 60.54% 1,288 36.73% 96 2.73% 835 23.81% 3,507
Tyler 2,415 64.55% 1,241 33.17% 85 2.28% 1,174 31.38% 3,741
Upshur 5,911 65.89% 2,925 32.61% 135 1.50% 2,986 33.28% 8,971
Wayne 8,947 57.98% 6,137 39.77% 346 2.25% 2,810 18.21% 15,430
Webster 1,386 45.34% 1,552 50.77% 119 3.89% -166 -5.43% 3,057
Wetzel 3,342 51.78% 2,942 45.58% 170 2.62% 400 6.20% 6,454
Wirt 1,496 64.32% 782 33.62% 48 2.06% 714 30.70% 2,326
Wood 22,896 63.38% 12,573 34.80% 657 1.82% 10,323 28.58% 36,126
Wyoming 4,621 61.37% 2,735 36.32% 174 2.31% 1,886 25.05% 7,530
Totals 397,466 55.58% 303,857 42.49% 13,800 1.93% 93,609 13.09% 715,123
County Flips:

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

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Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

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By congressional District

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John McCain swept all three of the state's three congressional districts, including the two districts held by Democrats.

District McCain Obama Representative
1st 56.77% 41.51% Alan Mollohan
2nd 54.63% 43.77% Shelley Moore Capito
3rd 55.76% 42.29% Nick Rahall

Electors

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Technically the voters of West Virginia cast their ballots for electors: representatives to the Electoral College. West Virginia is allocated 5 electors because it has 3 congressional districts and 2 senators. All candidates who appear on the ballot or qualify to receive write-in votes must submit a list of 5 electors, who pledge to vote for their candidate and their running mate. Whoever wins the majority of votes in the state is awarded all 5 electoral votes. Their chosen electors then vote for president and vice president. Although electors are pledged to their candidate and running mate, they are not obligated to vote for them.[20] An elector who votes for someone other than their candidate is known as a faithless elector.

The electors of each state and the District of Columbia met on December 15, 2008, to cast their votes for president and vice president. The Electoral College itself never meets as one body. Instead the electors from each state and the District of Columbia met in their respective capitols.

All 5 were pledged to John McCain and Sarah Palin:[21]

  1. Robert Fish
  2. Zane Lawhorn
  3. Catherine Sue McKinney
  4. Marti Riggall
  5. Theresa Waxman

References

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  1. ^ "D.C.'s Political Report: The complete source for campaign summaries". January 1, 2009. Archived from the original on January 1, 2009. Retrieved August 23, 2021.
  2. ^ "Presidential". May 5, 2015. Archived from the original on May 5, 2015. Retrieved August 23, 2021.
  3. ^ "Vote 2008 - The Takeaway - Track the Electoral College vote predictions". April 22, 2009. Archived from the original on April 22, 2009. Retrieved August 23, 2021.
  4. ^ "Electoral-vote.com: President, Senate, House Updated Daily". electoral-vote.com. Retrieved August 23, 2021.
  5. ^ a b c d Based on Takeaway
  6. ^ "POLITICO's 2008 Swing State Map - POLITICO.com". www.politico.com. Retrieved September 22, 2016.
  7. ^ "RealClearPolitics - Electoral Map". Archived from the original on June 5, 2008.
  8. ^ "CQ Presidential Election Maps, 2008". CQ Politics. Archived from the original on June 14, 2009. Retrieved December 20, 2009.
  9. ^ Nagourney, Adam; Zeleny, Jeff; Carter, Shan (November 4, 2008). "The Electoral Map: Key States". The New York Times. Retrieved May 26, 2010.
  10. ^ "October – 2008 – CNN Political Ticker - CNN.com Blogs". CNN. October 31, 2008. Archived from the original on June 19, 2010. Retrieved May 26, 2010.
  11. ^ "Winning The Electoral College". Fox News. April 27, 2010.
  12. ^ "roadto270". hosted.ap.org. Retrieved September 22, 2016.
  13. ^ "Election 2008: Electoral College Update - Rasmussen Reports". www.rasmussenreports.com. Retrieved September 22, 2016.
  14. ^ David Leip. "Election 2008 Polls - Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections". Retrieved January 14, 2015.
  15. ^ "Map: Campaign Ad Spending - Election Center 2008 from CNN.com". CNN. Retrieved May 26, 2010.
  16. ^ "Map: Campaign Candidate Visits - Election Center 2008 from CNN.com". CNN. Retrieved May 26, 2010.
  17. ^ "Election Results 2008". New York Times. Archived from the original on November 3, 2004.
  18. ^ Willis, Derek (November 24, 2014). "Election Was Rough for Democrats. It Was Worse for West Virginia Democrats". The New York Times. Retrieved November 9, 2016.
  19. ^ "2012 Presidential General Election Results - West Virginia".
  20. ^ "Electoral College". California Secretary of State. Archived from the original on October 30, 2008. Retrieved November 1, 2008.
  21. ^ "U. S. Electoral College 2008 Election - Certificates". Retrieved January 14, 2015.