2010 United States Senate election in Missouri

2010 United States Senate election in Missouri
	County results Blunt: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% Carnahan: 50–60% 70–80%
U.S. senator before election; Kit Bond; Republican	Elected U.S. Senator ; Roy Blunt; Republican

The 2010 United States Senate election in Missouri took place on November 2, 2010, alongside 36 other elections to the United States Senate in other states as well as elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections. Primary elections were held on August 3, 2010. Incumbent Republican U.S. Senator Kit Bond decided to retire instead of seeking a fifth term. Republican nominee Roy Blunt won the open seat.^[1]

Republican primary

Candidates

Roy Blunt, U.S. Representative since 1997
Davis Conway
Tony Laszacs
Hector Maldonado, sales representative
Kristi Nichols, sales manager, activist, perennial candidate
R.L. Praprotnik
Chuck Purgason, State Senator
Deborah Solomon
Mike Vontz

Polling

Poll source	Dates administered	Roy Blunt	Chuck Purgason	Undecided
Public Policy Polling^[2]	November 13–15, 2009	53%	16%	31%
Public Policy Polling^[3]	March 27–28, 2010	48%	18%	34%

Results

Republican primary results^[4]
Party		Candidate	Votes	%
	Republican	Roy Blunt	411,040	70.9%
	Republican	Chuck Purgason	75,663	13.1%
	Republican	Kristi Nichols	40,744	7.0%
	Republican	Deborah Solomon	15,099	2.6%
	Republican	Hector Maldonado	8,731	1.5%
	Republican	Davis Conway	8,525	1.5%
	Republican	R.L. Praprotnik	8,047	1.4%
	Republican	Tony Laszacs	6,309	1.1%
	Republican	Mike Vontz	5,190	0.9%
Total votes			579,348	100.00%

Democratic primary

Candidates

Robin Carnahan, Missouri Secretary of State, daughter of former U.S. Senator Jean Carnahan and former governor Mel Carnahan
Richard Charles Tolbert
Francis Vangeli

Results

Democratic primary results^[4]
Party		Candidate	Votes	%
	Democratic	Robin Carnahan	266,349	83.9%
	Democratic	Richard Charles Tolbert	33,731	10.6%
	Democratic	Francis Vangeli	17,511	5.5%
Total votes			317,591	100.00%

Other primaries

Constitution

Candidates

Declared

Jerry Beck
Joe Martellaro
Mike Simmons

Constitution Party primary results^[4]
Party		Candidate	Votes	%
	Constitution	Jerry Beck	819	43.5%
	Constitution	Mike Simmons	554	29.4%
	Constitution	Joe Martello	511	27.1%
Total votes			1,884	100.00%

Libertarian

Candidates

Declared

Jonathan Dine
Cisse Spragins

Libertarian primary results^[4]
Party		Candidate	Votes	%
	Libertarian	Jonathan Dine	2,069	58.6%
	Libertarian	Cisse Spragins	1,460	41.4%
Total votes			3,529	100.00%

General election

Candidates

Roy Blunt (R), U.S. Representative
Robin Carnahan (D), Missouri Secretary of State
Jerry Beck (C)
Jonathan Dine (L)
Mark S. Memoly (write-in)
Frazier Glenn Miller (write-in), perennial candidate
Jeff Wirick (write-in)
Richie L. Wolfe (write-in)

Campaign

Carnahan and national Democrats heavily criticized Blunt for his support of bailouts, calling him "Bailout Blunt."^[5] Blunt criticized her for supporting President Obama's stimulus package, the cap-and-trade energy bill, and the Affordable Care Act.^[6]

Carnahan was endorsed by the Kansas City Star,^[7] the St. Louis Post-Dispatch,^[8] and the St. Louis American.^[9]

Blunt was endorsed by the Quincy Herald-Whig^[10] and the St. Joseph News-Press.^[11]

Debates

October 14: Televised on Kansas City Public Television in Kansas City, Missouri.^[12]
October 18: Missouri Press Association convention in Lake of the Ozarks State Park.^[13]
October 29: Televised on KTVI in St. Louis.^[14]

Predictions

Source	Ranking	As of
Cook Political Report^[15]	Lean R	October 26, 2010
Rothenberg^[16]	Lean R	October 22, 2010
RealClearPolitics^[17]	Likely R	October 26, 2010
Sabato's Crystal Ball^[18]	Likely R	October 21, 2010
CQ Politics^[19]	Lean R	October 26, 2010

Polling

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Roy Blunt (R)	Robin Carnahan (D)	Other	Undecided
Public Policy Polling^[20]	January 10–11, 2009	867	± 3.3%	44%	45%	––	11%
Wilson Strategies (R)^[21]	March 7–9, 2009	600	± 4.0%	44%	47%	––	9%
Democracy Corps (D)^[22]	April 28–30, 2009	800	± 3.5%	44%	53%	––	3%
Momentum Analysis (D)^[23]	September 19, 2009	802	± 3.5%	45%	48%	––	7%
Rasmussen Reports^[24]	September 21, 2009	500	± 4.5%	46%	46%	2%	5%
Public Policy Polling^[25]	November 13–15, 2009	763	± 3.6%	42%	43%	––	15%
Rasmussen Reports^[26]	December 15, 2009	500	± 4.5%	44%	46%	4%	6%
YouGovPolimetrix^[27]	January 6–11, 2010	500	––	39%	43%	––	19%
Rasmussen Reports^[28]	January 19, 2010	500	± 4.5%	49%	43%	3%	5%
Rasmussen Reports^[29]	February 10, 2010	500	± 4.5%	49%	42%	3%	6%
Rasmussen Reports^[30]	March 9, 2010	500	± 4.5%	47%	41%	4%	8%
Public Policy Polling^[31]	March 27–28, 2010	495	± 4.4%	45%	41%	––	13%
Rasmussen Reports^[32]	April 6, 2010	500	± 4.5%	48%	42%	3%	7%
Rasmussen Reports^[33]	May 3, 2010	500	± 4.5%	50%	42%	4%	4%
Rasmussen Reports^[34]	June 2, 2010	500	± 4.5%	45%	44%	4%	6%
Rasmussen Reports^[35]	June 28, 2010	500	± 4.5%	48%	43%	3%	6%
Rasmussen Reports^[36]	July 13, 2010	750	± 4.0%	47%	45%	2%	6%
Mason Dixon^[37]	July 19–21, 2010	625	± 4.0%	48%	42%	––	10%
Rasmussen Reports^[38]	July 27, 2010	750	± 4.0%	49%	43%	4%	4%
Rasmussen Reports^[38]	August 10, 2010	750	± 4.0%	50%	43%	3%	4%
Public Policy Polling^[39]	August 14–15, 2010	––	± 3.73%	45%	38%	8%	9%
Rasmussen Reports^[40]	August 23, 2010	750	± 4.0%	51%	40%	5%	4%
Rasmussen Reports^[41]	September 7, 2010	750	± 4.0%	53%	43%	2%	2%
Rasmussen Reports^[42]	September 21, 2010	750	± 4.0%	52%	44%	2%	3%
Fox News/Pulse Opinion Research^[43]	October 2, 2010	1,000	± 3.0%	50%	42%	5%	3%
CNN/Time/Opinion Research^[44]	October 1–5, 2010	1,398	± 2.5%	53%	40%	4%	––
Rasmussen Reports^[38]	October 5, 2010	750	± 4.0%	51%	43%	3%	2%
Fox News/Pulse Opinion Research^[43]	October 16, 2010	1,000	± 3.0%	49%	43%	5%	3%
Public Policy Polling^[45]	October 17–18, 2010	646	± 3.9%	46%	41%	6%	7%
Rasmussen Reports^[38]	October 19, 2010	750	± 4.0%	52%	43%	4%	3%
Mason-Dixon^[46]	October 18–20, 2010	625	± 4.0%	49%	40%	3%	8%
KSN3/Missouri State University^[47]	October 20–27, 2010	821	± 3.8%	54%	41%	3%	2%

Fundraising

Candidate (party)	Receipts	Disbursements	Cash on hand	Debt
Roy Blunt (R)	$8,203,670	$4,537,049	$4,003,030	$0
Robin Carnahan (D)	$7,297,929	$3,658,278	$3,639,651	$0
Source: Federal Election Commission^[48]

Results

United States Senate election in Missouri, 2010^[49]
Party		Candidate	Votes	%	±%
	Republican	Roy Blunt	1,054,160	54.23%	−1.86%
	Democratic	Robin Carnahan	789,736	40.63%	−2.17%
	Libertarian	Jonathan Dine	58,663	3.02%	+2.29%
	Constitution	Jerry Beck	41,309	2.12%	+1.73%
	Write-in		31	0.00%	N/A
Total votes			1,943,899	100.0%
	Republican hold

References

^ Missouri election results 2010: Robin Carnahan defeated by Roy Blunt, Washington Post, 2 November 2010
^ Public Policy Polling
^ Public Policy Polling
^ ^a ^b ^c ^d "Missouri Senate Primary results". Missouri SOS. August 3, 2010. Archived from the original on October 2, 2012. Retrieved August 3, 2010.
^ Congressman 'Bailout' Blunt Tries to Redefine His Role in the $700 Billion Bailout | Fired Up! Missouri Archived September 16, 2010, at the Wayback Machine
^ Blunt's 2nd ad attacks Carnahan on Obama event
^ Recommendations for Missouri’s top races, editorial board, Kansas City Star, October 24, 2010
^ Carnahan for Senate: Part of the solution, not the problem, editorial board, St. Louis Post-Dispatch, October 22, 2010
^ American endorses Robin Carnahan and Barbara Fraser^{[permanent dead link]}, editorial board, St. Louis American, October 21, 2010
^ Roy Blunt for Senate Archived October 23, 2010, at the Wayback Machine
^ Roy Blunt for Senate Archived October 23, 2010, at the Wayback Machine
^ [1]^{[dead link]}
^ Senate candidate heavyweights debate at lake - Camdenton, MO - Serving Missouri's Lake of the Ozarks region including Osage Beach, Camdenton, Lake Ozark, Eldon and Sunrise Bea... Archived July 13, 2011, at the Wayback Machine
^ Blunt and Carnahan Fire Up Supporters – KTVI Archived November 7, 2010, at the Wayback Machine
^ "Senate". Cook Political Report. Retrieved October 26, 2010.
^ "Senate Ratings". Rothenberg Political Report. Retrieved October 26, 2010.
^ "Battle for the Senate". RealClearPolitics. Retrieved October 26, 2010.
^ "2010 Senate Ratings". Sabato's Crystal Ball. Archived from the original on October 28, 2010. Retrieved October 26, 2010.
^ "Race Ratings Chart: Senate". CQ Politics. Archived from the original on October 28, 2010. Retrieved October 26, 2010.
^ Public Policy Polling
^ Wilson Strategies (R)
^ Democracy Corps (D)
^ Momentum Analysis (D)
^ Rasmussen Reports
^ Public Policy Polling
^ Rasmussen Reports
^ YouGovPolimetrix
^ Rasmussen Reports
^ Rasmussen Reports
^ Rasmussen Reports
^ Public Policy Polling
^ Rasmussen Reports
^ Rasmussen Reports
^ Rasmussen Reports
^ Rasmussen Reports
^ Rasmussen Reports
^ Mason Dixon
^ ^a ^b ^c ^d Rasmussen Reports
^ Public Policy Polling
^ Rasmussen Reports
^ Rasmussen Reports
^ Rasmussen Reports
^ ^a ^b Fox News/Pulse Opinion Research
^ CNN/Time/Opinion Research
^ Public Policy Polling
^ Mason-Dixon
^ KSN3/Missouri State University
^ "2010 House and Senate Campaign Finance for Missouri". fec.gov. Retrieved August 19, 2010.^{[permanent dead link]}
^ "Official Election Returns 2010" (PDF). Missouri Secretary of State.

External links

Elections from the Missouri Secretary of State
- Official candidate lists
U.S. Congress candidates for Missouri at Project Vote Smart
Missouri U.S. Senate 2010 from OurCampaigns.com
Campaign contributions from Open Secrets
2010 Missouri Senate General Election: Roy Blunt (R) vs Robin Carnahan (D) graph of multiple polls from Pollster.com
Election 2010: Missouri Senate from Rasmussen Reports
2010 Missouri Senate - Blunt vs. Carnahan from Real Clear Politics
2010 Missouri Senate Race from CQ Politics
Race profile from The New York Times
News coverage from The Midwest Democracy Project at The Kansas City Star
News coverage at the St. Louis Post-Dispatch

Official campaign websites

Roy Blunt for U.S. Senate
Robin Carnahan for U.S. Senate
Jerry Beck for U.S. Senate
Cisse Spragins for U.S. Senate
Hector Maldonado for U.S. Senate Archived June 17, 2010, at the Wayback Machine

[1] Missouri election results 2010: Robin Carnahan defeated by Roy Blunt, Washington Post, 2 November 2010

[2] Public Policy Polling

[3] Public Policy Polling

[Results-4] "Missouri Senate Primary results". Missouri SOS. August 3, 2010. Archived from the original on October 2, 2012. Retrieved August 3, 2010.

[5] Congressman 'Bailout' Blunt Tries to Redefine His Role in the $700 Billion Bailout | Fired Up! Missouri Archived September 16, 2010, at the Wayback Machine

[6] Blunt's 2nd ad attacks Carnahan on Obama event

[7] Recommendations for Missouri’s top races, editorial board, Kansas City Star, October 24, 2010

[8] Carnahan for Senate: Part of the solution, not the problem, editorial board, St. Louis Post-Dispatch, October 22, 2010

[9] American endorses Robin Carnahan and Barbara Fraser^{[permanent dead link]}, editorial board, St. Louis American, October 21, 2010

[10] Roy Blunt for Senate Archived October 23, 2010, at the Wayback Machine

[11] Roy Blunt for Senate Archived October 23, 2010, at the Wayback Machine

[12] [1]^{[dead link]}

[13] Senate candidate heavyweights debate at lake - Camdenton, MO - Serving Missouri's Lake of the Ozarks region including Osage Beach, Camdenton, Lake Ozark, Eldon and Sunrise Bea... Archived July 13, 2011, at the Wayback Machine

[14] Blunt and Carnahan Fire Up Supporters – KTVI Archived November 7, 2010, at the Wayback Machine

[15] "Senate". Cook Political Report. Retrieved October 26, 2010.

[16] "Senate Ratings". Rothenberg Political Report. Retrieved October 26, 2010.

[17] "Battle for the Senate". RealClearPolitics. Retrieved October 26, 2010.

[18] "2010 Senate Ratings". Sabato's Crystal Ball. Archived from the original on October 28, 2010. Retrieved October 26, 2010.

[19] "Race Ratings Chart: Senate". CQ Politics. Archived from the original on October 28, 2010. Retrieved October 26, 2010.

[20] Public Policy Polling

[21] Wilson Strategies (R)

[22] Democracy Corps (D)

[23] Momentum Analysis (D)

[24] Rasmussen Reports

[25] Public Policy Polling

[26] Rasmussen Reports

[27] YouGovPolimetrix

[28] Rasmussen Reports

[29] Rasmussen Reports

[30] Rasmussen Reports

[31] Public Policy Polling

[32] Rasmussen Reports

[33] Rasmussen Reports

[34] Rasmussen Reports

[35] Rasmussen Reports

[36] Rasmussen Reports

[37] Mason Dixon

[Rasmussen_Reports-38] Rasmussen Reports

[39] Public Policy Polling

[40] Rasmussen Reports

[41] Rasmussen Reports

[42] Rasmussen Reports

[Fox_News/Pulse_Opinion_Research-43] Fox News/Pulse Opinion Research

[44] CNN/Time/Opinion Research

[45] Public Policy Polling

[46] Mason-Dixon

[47] KSN3/Missouri State University

[48] "2010 House and Senate Campaign Finance for Missouri". fec.gov. Retrieved August 19, 2010.^{[permanent dead link]}

[49] "Official Election Returns 2010" (PDF). Missouri Secretary of State.

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Republican primary

Candidates

Polling

Results

Democratic primary

Candidates

Results

Other primaries

Constitution

Candidates

Declared

Libertarian

Candidates

Declared

General election

Candidates

Campaign

Debates

Predictions

Polling

Fundraising

Results

See also

References

External links