2021 Ohio's 15th congressional district special election
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Ohio's 15th congressional district | |||||||||||||||||
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| Turnout | 32.25%[1] | ||||||||||||||||
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On May 16, 2021, Representative Steve Stivers resigned from his seat in the United States House of Representatives to become president and CEO of the Ohio Chamber of Commerce.[2] Following Stivers' official communication of his intent to resign, Ohio Governor Mike DeWine announced that the special election to fill the remainder of his term would be held on November 2, 2021, with the primary election held on August 3, concurrent with the special election in Ohio's 11th congressional district.[3][4] In the general election on November 2, Republican nominee Mike Carey defeated Democratic nominee Allison Russo by roughly 17 percentage points.
| Elections in Ohio |
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Republican primary
[edit]Candidates
[edit]Nominee
[edit]- Mike Carey, vice president of government affairs at American Consolidated Natural Resources[5]
Eliminated in primary
[edit]- John Adams, owner of Green Valley Chemicals[5]
- Eric M. Clark, LPN at Wright-Patterson Air Force Base[5]
- Thad Cooperrider, former Perry County commissioner[5]
- Ruth Edmonds, advisory board member at Ohio's Office of Faith-Based and Community Initiatives[6][7]
- Ron Hood, former state representative[5]
- Thomas Hwang, owner of The Virtues Golf Club[5]
- Stephanie Kunze, state senator[8]
- Jeff LaRe, state representative[8]
- Bob Peterson, state senator[9]
- Omar Tarazi, attorney and Hilliard city councilmember[10][11]
Withdrawn
[edit]- Brian Stewart, state representative[12]
Declined
[edit]- Jeff Fix, Fairfield County commissioner[5]
Endorsements
[edit]Mike Carey
Executive Branch officials
- Donald Trump, 45th president of the United States (2017–2021)[13]
U.S. Representatives
- Elise Stefanik, chair of the House Republican Conference (2021–present) and U.S. Representative from NY-21 (2015–present)[14]
Individuals
- Corey Lewandowski, senior advisor to former President Donald Trump[5]
Stephanie Kunze
Organizations
- Franklin County, Ohio Republican Party
- Maggie's List[15]
Jeff LaRe
U.S. Representatives
- Steve Stivers, former U.S. Representative from OH-15 (2011–2021)[16]
State Representatives
- Cindy Abrams (R-Harrison), Assistant Majority Whip
- Adam Bird (R-New Richmond)
- Sara Carruthers (R- Hamilton)
- Jon Cross (R-Kenton)
- Haraz Ghanbari (R-Perrysburg)
- Thomas Hall (R-Madison Twp.)
- Brett Hillyer (R-Uhrichsville)
- Mike Loychik (R-Bazetta)
- Gail Pavliga (R-Portage County)
- Phil Plummer (R-Dayton)
- Bill Seitz (R-Cincinnati) , Majority Floor Leader
- Reggie Stoltzfus (R-Paris Twp.)
- D. J. Swearingen (R-Huron)
- Bob Young (R-Green)
- Tom Young (R-Washington Twp.)
Organizations
- Left or Right Politics
Bob Peterson
U.S. Representatives
- Steve Austria, former U.S. Representative from OH-07 (2009–2013)[17]
- Dave Hobson, former U.S. Representative from OH-07 (1991–2009)[17]
State legislators
- Bob Hackett, Ohio State Senator
- Jay Hottinger, President pro tempore of the Ohio Senate (2021–present) from District 31 (1998–2006; 2015–present)[17]
- Mark Johnson, Ohio State Representative from District 92 (2021–present)[17]
- Tim Schaffer, Ohio State Senator from District 20 (2019–present)[17]
County Commissioners
- Harold "Champ" Henson, III, Pickaway County, Ohio
- Gary Scherer, Pickaway County, Ohio, Commissioner and former Ohio State Representative from District 92 (2012–2020)[17]
Ron Hood
U.S. Senators
- Rand Paul, U.S. Senator from Kentucky (2011–present)[18]
Ruth Edmonds
Individuals
- James Dobson, evangelical Christian author, psychologist, and founder of Focus on the Family[19]
Polling
[edit]| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
John Adams
|
Mike Carey
|
Eric Clark
|
Thad Cooperrider
|
Ruth Edmonds
|
Ron Hood
|
Thomas Hwang
|
Stephanie Kunze
|
Jeff LaRe
|
Bob Peterson
|
Omar Tarazi
|
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fabrizio Lee & Associates (R)[20][A] | June 23–24, 2021 | 400 (LV) | ± 4.9% | <1% | 20% | 0% | 2% | <1% | 7% | 3% | 6% | 9% | 7% | 1% | 44% |
Results
[edit]
Carey
- 30–40%
- 40–50%
- 50–60%
Peterson
- 50–60%
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Mike Carey | 18,805 | 36.3 | |
| Republican | Jeff LaRe | 6,776 | 13.1 | |
| Republican | Ron Hood | 6,676 | 12.9 | |
| Republican | Bob Peterson | 6,407 | 12.4 | |
| Republican | Ruth Edmonds | 5,090 | 9.8 | |
| Republican | Thomas Hwang | 2,499 | 4.8 | |
| Republican | Stephanie Kunze | 2,363 | 4.6 | |
| Republican | Thad Cooperrider | 1,076 | 2.1 | |
| Republican | Omar Tarazi | 907 | 1.7 | |
| Republican | John Adams | 173 | 0.3 | |
| Republican | Eric M. Clark | 83 | 0.2 | |
| Total votes | 51,855 | 100.0 | ||
Democratic primary
[edit]Candidates
[edit]Nominee
[edit]- Allison Russo, state representative[22][23]
Eliminated in primary
[edit]- Greg Betts[5]
Declined
[edit]- Tina Maharath, state senator[22][24]
- Joel Newby, attorney and nominee for Ohio's 15th congressional district in 2020[25]
- Steve Patterson, mayor of Athens (endorsed Russo)[26][27]
- Michael Stinziano, Franklin County auditor[5]
Endorsements
[edit]Allison Russo
U.S. Senators
- Sherrod Brown, U.S. Senator from Ohio (2007–present)[28]
Local officials
Organizations
Results
[edit]
Russo
- Russo—70–80%
- Russo—80–90%
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | Allison Russo | 13,704 | 84.2 | |
| Democratic | Greg Betts | 2,576 | 15.8 | |
| Total votes | 16,280 | 100.0 | ||
General election
[edit]Predictions
[edit]| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| The Cook Political Report[31] | Likely R | August 4, 2021 |
| Inside Elections[32] | Solid R | October 27, 2021 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[33] | Likely R | August 4, 2021 |
Endorsements
[edit]Mike Carey (R)
Executive Branch officials
- Mike Pence, 48th vice president of the United States (2017–2021)[34]
- Donald Trump, 45th president of the United States (2017–2021)[13]
U.S. Representatives
- Elise Stefanik, chair of the House Republican Conference (2021–present) and U.S. Representative from NY-21 (2015–present)[35]
Individuals
- Corey Lewandowski, senior advisor to former President Donald Trump[5]
Allison Russo (D)
Executive Branch officials
- Joe Biden, 46th president of the United States (2021–present)[36]
U.S. Senators
- Sherrod Brown, U.S. Senator from Ohio (2007–present)[37]
Local officials
Organizations
Polling
[edit]| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Mike Carey (R) |
Allison Russo (D) |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emerson College[40] | October 14–16, 2021 | 445 (LV) | ± 4.6% | 50% | 39% | 11% |
Results
[edit]| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Mike Carey | 94,501 | 58.30% | –5.11 | |
| Democratic | Allison Russo | 67,588 | 41.70% | +5.13 | |
| Total votes | 162,089 | 100.0% | |||
| Turnout | [a]165,026 | 32.25% | |||
| Registered electors | 511,773 | ||||
| Republican hold | |||||
By county
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Notes
[edit]- ^ Including invalid votes or ballots not counted for either candidate
Partisan clients
- ^ This poll was sponsored by Mike Carey's campaign.
References
[edit]- ^ a b c "November 2, 2021 Special Congressional General Election Official Canvass". Ohio Secretary of State. Retrieved April 6, 2022.
- ^ "Rep. Steve Stivers will resign from Congress to join Ohio Chamber". WCMH-TV. April 19, 2021. Retrieved April 19, 2021.
- ^ Clay, Jarrod (April 26, 2021). "Gov. DeWine calls special election for Ohio's 15th Congressional District". WTTE. Retrieved April 26, 2021.
- ^ "Governor DeWine calls special election for Ohio's 15th Congressional District". Highland County Press. Archived from the original on April 26, 2021. Retrieved April 26, 2021.
- ^ a b c d e f g h i j k "12 Republicans, two Democrats vie for 15th Congressional District seat to replace Steve Stivers". The Columbus Dispatch. May 17, 2021. Retrieved May 17, 2021.
- ^ @CATargetBot (May 5, 2021). "'NEW 2021 FEC F2, Ruth Edmonds (REP), #OH15 (R-Stivers)'" (Tweet) – via Twitter.
- ^ "Faith-Based and Community Initiatives". Retrieved May 9, 2021.
- ^ a b Bischoff, Laura A. "Five Republicans in central Ohio already seeking to replace Rep. Steve Stivers in Congress". The Columbus Dispatch. Retrieved April 29, 2021.
- ^ "State Senator Bob Peterson announces candidacy for U.S. Congress". Highland County Press. April 20, 2021. Archived from the original on April 21, 2021. Retrieved April 21, 2021.
- ^ @CATargetBot (May 7, 2021). "'NEW 2021 FEC F2, Omar Tarazi (REP), #OH15 (R-Stivers)'" (Tweet) – via Twitter.
- ^ "Law Office of Attorney Omar Tarazi". Retrieved May 9, 2021.
- ^ Brian Stewart [@BrianStewartOH] (June 4, 2021). "I am deeply grateful to the volunteers, friends, donors - and most of all, my family - who helped us get #StewartForCongress off to an amazing start. However, it's become clear that this is not yet my time, and I am suspending my campaign. My full statement is below. #OH15" (Tweet). Retrieved June 4, 2021 – via Twitter.
- ^ a b Haley BeMiller (June 8, 2021). "Former President Donald Trump endorses Mike Carey in 15th Congressional District race". The Columbus Dispatch.
- ^ "Stefanik endorses Trump candidate in Ohio GOP primary race". July 13, 2021.
- ^ Steinhauser, Paul (June 22, 2021). "Conservative PAC that supports female candidates makes initial 2022 endorsements". Fox News. Archived from the original on June 30, 2021. Retrieved July 2, 2021.
- ^ Barron, Jeff; BeMiller, Haley (June 2, 2021). "Steve Stivers endorses Jeff LaRe as his 15th Congressional District replacement". Lancaster Eagle-Gazette. Retrieved June 2, 2021.
- ^ a b c d e f Reutter, Justin (June 9, 2021). "Meet the candidate: Senator Bob Peterson". Chillicothe Gazette. Retrieved June 12, 2021.
- ^ Alex Isenstadt (July 14, 2021). "'It will be remembered': Trump allies cross him in special election". Politico.
- ^ Colvin, Jill; Beaumont, Thomas; Smyth, Julie Carr (August 2, 2021). "Trump's kingmaker status faces test in Ohio special election". Associated Press.
- ^ Fabrizio Lee & Associates (R)
- ^ a b "JasperReports - /Election Summary - Includes Overlaps" (PDF). Franklin County Board of Elections. Retrieved August 27, 2021.
- ^ a b Bischoff, Laura A. "Rep. Steve Stivers is out; Central Ohio politicos lining up to replace him". The Columbus Dispatch. Retrieved April 19, 2021.
- ^ Allison Russo [@Russo4Ohio] (May 11, 2021). "We all want our kids and grandkids to have the opportunities they need to put down roots and raise a family of their own here in Ohio someday. Together, we can build an economy that works for all of us. #Russo4Ohio15" (Tweet). Retrieved May 11, 2021 – via Twitter.
- ^ @JMBorchardt (May 10, 2021). "State Sen. @TinaMaharath (D) will NOT run for #OH15 to replace Steve Stivers, will stay in the Ohio Senate. "There is more work that needs to be done."" (Tweet). Retrieved May 10, 2021 – via Twitter.
- ^ "www.joelnewby.com - D-15 2021 Special Election Statement". joelnewby.com. Retrieved April 25, 2021.
- ^ Behrens, Cole (May 3, 2021). "Patterson bows out of consideration for Stivers' U.S. congress seat". Retrieved May 3, 2021.
- ^ a b c Peters, Ben (July 7, 2021). "Athens Mayor endorses Democrat Allison Russo in Ohio's 15th Congressional District race". Athens News.
- ^ Reutter, Justin (July 5, 2021). "Democratic challenger hopes to flip 15th Congressional District". Chillicothe Gazette.
- ^ a b "this OPEN seat in Ohio is the only red-to-blue pickup opportunity of 2021". Archive of Political Emails. May 11, 2021.
- ^ a b c d Behrens, Cole (July 7, 2021). "Athens mayor endorses state Rep. Allison Russo for special election". The Athens Messenger.
- ^ Dave Wasserman (August 4, 2021). "OH-11 and OH-15 First Thoughts: These Are Biden and Trump's Parties". Retrieved December 7, 2021.
- ^ Rothenberg, Stuart (October 27, 2021). "House Ratings". The Rothenberg Political Report. Retrieved December 9, 2021.
- ^ Kondik, Kyle (August 5, 2021). "Notes on the State of Politics: August 4, 2021". Retrieved August 4, 2021.
- ^ Mike Pence [@Mike_Pence] (August 4, 2021). "Congratulations to my friend Mike Carey on winning the Republican nomination in OH-15! With a win this November, MikeCareyOH15 will be a champion for Ohio and America on Day One. Congratulations Mike!" (Tweet) – via Twitter.
- ^ "Stefanik endorses Trump candidate in Ohio GOP primary race". Fox News. July 13, 2021.
- ^ Gomez, Henry (July 5, 2021). "Biden endorses Allison Russo in special congressional election in Ohio". NBC News.
- ^ Reutter, Justin (November 1, 2021). "Democratic challenger hopes to flip 15th Congressional District". Chillicothe Gazette.
- ^ "EMILY's List Endorses Allison Russo for Congress". EMILY's List. August 10, 2021. Retrieved October 26, 2021.
- ^ "LCV ACTION FUND ENDORSES SHONTEL BROWN AND ALLISON RUSSO FOR CONGRESS". League of Conservation Voters. September 9, 2021. Retrieved October 26, 2021.
- ^ Emerson College