2004 Indiana gubernatorial election
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 County results Daniels: 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% Kernan: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% Tie: 40–50% | ||||||||||||||||||||
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| Elections in Indiana |
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The 2004 Indiana gubernatorial election took place on November 2, 2004, to elect the governor of Indiana.
Incumbent Democratic governor Joe Kernan was defeated by Republican Mitch Daniels. Daniels' victory was the first time the Republican Party had been elected governor since 1984, and gave the party control of all the important statewide offices.[1] It was also the first time an incumbent governor had been defeated since the Constitution of Indiana was amended in 1972 to permit governors to serve two consecutive terms.[2]
Democratic primary
[edit]Candidates
[edit]- Joe Kernan, incumbent governor since 2002
Withdrew
[edit]- Joe Andrew, former chair of the Democratic National Committee
- Vi Simpson, state senator from Bloomington
Campaign
[edit]Frank O'Bannon had been re-elected governor of Indiana in 2000 and was prevented from running for governor again by term limits. His lieutenant governor, Joe Kernan, on December 15, 2002, said that he would not be a candidate for governor.[3] State Senator Vi Simpson and Joe Andrew then vied for nomination for the next ten months. However, on September 13, 2003, O'Bannon had a stroke and died, resulting in Kernan taking over as governor. Kernan decided two months later, on November 4, 2003, that he would run for governor in 2004 and was unopposed in the Democratic primary after both Simpson and Andrew dropped out.[2]
Results
[edit]| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | Joe Kernan (incumbent) | 283,924 | 100.00 | |
| Total votes | 283,924 | 100.00 | ||
Republican primary
[edit]Candidates
[edit]- Mitch Daniels, former White House Director of the Office of Management and Budget
- Eric Miller, activist
Withdrew
[edit]- David M. McIntosh, nominee in 2000 and former U.S. representative from Muncie
Campaign
[edit]Former White House Director of the Office of Management and Budget Mitch Daniels easily defeated conservative activist Eric Miller in the Republican primary on May 4, 2004.[5] The Republican candidate for governor in 2000, David M. McIntosh, had earlier dropped out of the race after President George W. Bush gave his support to Daniels. Daniels had quit as White House budget director in 2003 so he could return to Indiana and run for governor. President Bush came to South Bend, Indiana before the primary to support Daniels, and the President's nickname for Daniels, "My Man Mitch", became his campaign slogan.[6]
Results
[edit]
- 50–60%
- 60–70%
- 70–80%
- 80–90%
- 50-60%
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Mitch Daniels | 335,828 | 66.40 | |
| Republican | Eric Miller | 169,930 | 33.60 | |
| Total votes | 505,758 | 100.00 | ||
General election
[edit]Campaign
[edit]Daniels campaigned by traveling throughout Indiana in his RV visiting all 92 Indiana counties at least three times.[2] Kernan fell behind in the polls in May 2004 and never caught up, despite closing the gap in September after attacking Daniels' plan to sell an Indiana utility to an out of state firm.[2] The economy of Indiana was a major issue in the campaign with Kernan, as incumbent, facing pressure over the state's budget troubles.[7]
In addition to the two major party tickets, there was the Libertarian ticket of Kenn Gividen and Elaine Badnarik.[8][9]
All three candidates took part in two debates during the campaign. The first was held on September 28, 2004, at Franklin College with the candidates clashing over the state's economy, prescription drugs and the extension of Interstate 69 from Indianapolis to Evansville.[10] The second debate was held on October 17, 2004, in New Albany, Indiana. Negative campaigning was the major issue.[11]
Between Daniels and Kernan the two candidates raised over 28 million dollars, easily surpassing the previous record set in 2000 of 19.2 million dollars.[12]
Predictions
[edit]| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[13] | Likely R (flip) | November 1, 2004 |
Polling
[edit]| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Mitch Daniels (R) |
Joe Kernan (D) |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SurveyUSA[14] | October 27–29, 2004 | 587 (LV) | ± 4.1% | 52% | 44% | 4% |
Statewide Results
[edit]| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Mitch Daniels/Becky Skillman | 1,302,912 | 53.21% | +11.54% | |
| Democratic | Joe Kernan/Kathy Davis (incumbents) | 1,113,900 | 45.49% | −11.06% | |
| Libertarian | Kenn Gividen/Elaine Badnarik | 31,664 | 1.29% | −0.48% | |
| Write-ins | 22 | 0.00% | |||
| Majority | 189,012 | 7.72% | −7.16% | ||
| Turnout | 2,448,498 | 57% | |||
| Republican gain from Democratic | Swing | ||||
County Results
[edit]Kernan won 17 of Indiana's counties compared to 73 for Daniels. The candidates finish tied in 2 counties.[15]
| County | Daniels | Votes | Kernan | Votes | Gividen | Votes | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adams | 62.9% | 8,350 | 36.3% | 4,816 | 0.7% | 99 | 13,265 |
| Allen | 57.2% | 73,689 | 41.9% | 53,899 | 0.9% | 1,183 | 128,771 |
| Bartholomew | 59.4% | 16,858 | 38.8% | 11,008 | 1.8% | 519 | 28,385 |
| Benton | 60.8% | 2,432 | 37.2% | 1,498 | 1.7% | 69 | 3,999 |
| Blackford | 51.2% | 2,741 | 47.9% | 2,567 | 0.9% | 46 | 5,354 |
| Boone | 70.9% | 16,189 | 27.3% | 6,326 | 1.3% | 305 | 22,820 |
| Brown | 55.0% | 4,010 | 42.8% | 3,118 | 2.2% | 164 | 7,292 |
| Carroll | 59.2% | 5,090 | 39.4% | 3,387 | 1.3% | 115 | 8,592 |
| Cass | 56.9% | 7,946 | 41.6% | 5,808 | 1.6% | 221 | 13,975 |
| Clark | 49.0% | 20,471 | 50.2% | 20,964 | 0.9% | 360 | 41,795 |
| Clay | 54.3% | 5,724 | 44.3% | 4,677 | 1.4% | 148 | 10,549 |
| Clinton | 63.8% | 7,537 | 35.0% | 4,129 | 1.3% | 148 | 11,814 |
| Crawford | 49.3% | 2,231 | 49.3% | 2,231 | 1.4% | 60 | 4,522 |
| Daviess | 59.5% | 6,223 | 38.7% | 4,049 | 1.8% | 183 | 10,455 |
| Dearborn | 61.3% | 12,514 | 37.2% | 7,573 | 1.5% | 297 | 20,384 |
| Decatur | 63.4% | 6,355 | 35.2% | 3,524 | 1.4% | 140 | 10,019 |
| DeKalb | 59.8% | 9,242 | 39.0% | 6,012 | 1.2% | 181 | 15,435 |
| Delaware | 48.0% | 22,917 | 50.6% | 24,132 | 1.4% | 663 | 47,712 |
| Dubois | 57.1% | 9,385 | 41.9% | 6,871 | 1.0% | 169 | 16,425 |
| Elkhart | 62.7% | 38,430 | 36.5% | 22,406 | 0.8% | 503 | 61,339 |
| Fayette | 53.4% | 4,981 | 45.3% | 4,224 | 1.3% | 121 | 9,326 |
| Floyd | 50.1% | 16,869 | 49.1% | 16,503 | 0.8% | 279 | 33,651 |
| Fountain | 61.6% | 4,786 | 37.1% | 2,878 | 1.3% | 101 | 7,765 |
| Franklin | 59.4% | 5,822 | 39.4% | 3,862 | 1.2% | 114 | 9,798 |
| Fulton | 58.4% | 5,103 | 40.3% | 3,513 | 1.3% | 110 | 8,726 |
| Gibson | 50.1% | 7,289 | 48.1% | 7,101 | 1.1% | 166 | 14,556 |
| Grant | 57.2% | 15,543 | 41.8% | 11,376 | 1.0% | 275 | 27,194 |
| Greene | 51.7% | 6,791 | 46.7% | 6,123 | 1.6% | 213 | 13,127 |
| Hamilton | 73.0% | 76,433 | 26.1% | 27,316 | 0.9% | 920 | 104,669 |
| Hancock | 67.4% | 18,825 | 31.3% | 8,746 | 1.3% | 359 | 27,930 |
| Harrison | 53.7% | 9,242 | 45.3% | 7,809 | 1.0% | 171 | 17,222 |
| Hendricks | 68.6% | 35,761 | 30.2% | 15,691 | 1.2% | 641 | 52,093 |
| Henry | 56.0% | 11,408 | 42.6% | 8,674 | 1.4% | 289 | 20,371 |
| Howard | 53.7% | 19,885 | 45.2% | 16,742 | 1.1% | 415 | 37,042 |
| Huntington | 67.1% | 10,484 | 31.7% | 4,953 | 1.2% | 183 | 15,620 |
| Jackson | 58.8% | 9,587 | 40.0% | 6,527 | 1.2% | 191 | 16,305 |
| Jasper | 58.2% | 6,781 | 40.4% | 4,701 | 1.4% | 167 | 11,649 |
| Jay | 56.2% | 4,537 | 42.8% | 3,453 | 1.0% | 80 | 8,070 |
| Jefferson | 51.1% | 6,542 | 47.7% | 6,109 | 1.2% | 150 | 12,801 |
| Jennings | 55.4% | 5,806 | 42.8% | 4,482 | 1.8% | 190 | 10,478 |
| Johnson | 66.9% | 34,269 | 31.7% | 16,253 | 1.4% | 701 | 51,223 |
| Knox | 48.5% | 7,569 | 50.0% | 7,797 | 1.5% | 228 | 15,594 |
| Kosciusko | 71.0% | 20,047 | 27.9% | 7,885 | 1.1% | 316 | 28,248 |
| LaGrange | 63.2% | 5,748 | 35.2% | 3,171 | 1.1% | 97 | 9,016 |
| Lake | 33.7% | 61,720 | 64.9% | 118,697 | 1.4% | 2,617 | 183,034 |
| LaPorte | 38.5% | 16,234 | 59.4% | 25,049 | 2.1% | 881 | 42,164 |
| Lawrence | 65.0% | 11,480 | 33.5% | 5,904 | 1.5% | 257 | 17,641 |
| Madison | 51.4% | 28,142 | 47.5% | 25,972 | 1.1% | 623 | 54,737 |
| Marion | 46.5% | 148,825 | 52.3% | 167,097 | 1.2% | 3,895 | 319,817 |
| Marshall | 60.6% | 10,745 | 38.2% | 6,756 | 1.2% | 204 | 17,705 |
| Martin | 53.7% | 2,664 | 44.4% | 2,205 | 1.9% | 94 | 4,963 |
| Miami | 60.9% | 8,155 | 37.8% | 5,062 | 1.3% | 179 | 13,396 |
| Monroe | 44.5% | 22,031 | 53.1% | 26,317 | 2.4% | 1,192 | 49,540 |
| Montgomery | 66.2% | 9,639 | 32.4% | 4,711 | 1.4% | 199 | 14,549 |
| Morgan | 64.6% | 16,716 | 33.8% | 8,740 | 1.6% | 424 | 25,880 |
| Newton | 54.5% | 3,164 | 43.6% | 2,531 | 1.9% | 111 | 5,806 |
| Noble | 61.3% | 9,570 | 37.6% | 5,863 | 1.1% | 176 | 15,609 |
| Ohio | 52.5% | 1,512 | 46.1% | 1,328 | 1.4% | 41 | 2,881 |
| Orange | 56.4% | 4,818 | 42.4% | 3,621 | 1.3% | 109 | 8,548 |
| Owen | 55.0% | 4,179 | 42.7% | 3,249 | 2.3% | 176 | 7,604 |
| Parke | 53.8% | 3,745 | 44.6% | 3,101 | 1.6% | 108 | 6,954 |
| Perry | 43.0% | 3,559 | 56.2% | 4,640 | 0.8% | 64 | 8,263 |
| Pike | 41.1% | 2,517 | 57.3% | 3,510 | 1.6% | 99 | 6,126 |
| Porter | 43.2% | 27,565 | 55.1% | 35,206 | 1.7% | 1,108 | 63,879 |
| Posey | 52.6% | 6,252 | 46.5% | 5,525 | 0.9% | 109 | 11,886 |
| Pulaski | 57.8% | 3,185 | 41.1% | 2,267 | 1.1% | 61 | 5,513 |
| Putnam | 60.8% | 8,002 | 37.8% | 4,984 | 1.4% | 185 | 13,171 |
| Randolph | 56.8% | 6,274 | 41.9% | 4,628 | 1.3% | 146 | 11,048 |
| Ripley | 59.1% | 6,925 | 39.6% | 4,635 | 1.3% | 151 | 11,711 |
| Rush | 61.9% | 4,529 | 36.6% | 2,676 | 1.6% | 116 | 7,321 |
| Saint Joseph | 45.3% | 49,198 | 53.8% | 58,327 | 0.9% | 1,000 | 108,525 |
| Scott | 44.7% | 3,862 | 54.3% | 4,681 | 1.0% | 90 | 8,633 |
| Shelby | 61.9% | 9,862 | 36.9% | 5,885 | 1.2% | 194 | 15,941 |
| Spencer | 52.3% | 5,183 | 46.5% | 4,612 | 1.2% | 114 | 9,909 |
| Starke | 46.6% | 4,024 | 52.2% | 4,539 | 1.5% | 131 | 8,694 |
| Steuben | 60.2% | 7,684 | 38.5% | 4,915 | 1.3% | 165 | 12,764 |
| Sullivan | 44.2% | 3,687 | 54.4% | 4,530 | 1.4% | 116 | 8,333 |
| Switzerland | 49.3% | 1,780 | 49.3% | 1,780 | 1.4% | 48 | 3,608 |
| Tippecanoe | 54.9% | 28,458 | 43.4% | 22,504 | 1.7% | 865 | 51,827 |
| Tipton | 60.5% | 4,729 | 38.1% | 2,973 | 1.4% | 108 | 7,810 |
| Union | 61.5% | 2,040 | 36.7% | 1,217 | 1.8% | 59 | 3,316 |
| Vanderburgh | 48.9% | 34,129 | 49.9% | 34,819 | 1.2% | 863 | 69,811 |
| Vermillion | 39.5% | 2,769 | 58.8% | 4,121 | 1.7% | 118 | 7,008 |
| Vigo | 42.4% | 16,804 | 55.6% | 22,054 | 2.0% | 806 | 39,664 |
| Wabash | 64.9% | 8,691 | 34.1% | 4,569 | 1.0% | 134 | 13,394 |
| Warren | 56.0% | 2,214 | 42.5% | 1,679 | 1.5% | 58 | 3,951 |
| Warrick | 53.8% | 13,877 | 45.2% | 11,678 | 1.0% | 262 | 25,817 |
| Washington | 59.2% | 6,419 | 39.6% | 4,297 | 1.2% | 134 | 10,850 |
| Wayne | 52.5% | 14,530 | 45.4% | 12,565 | 2.1% | 595 | 27,690 |
| Wells | 66.4% | 8,071 | 32.7% | 3,979 | 0.9% | 113 | 12,163 |
| White | 57.5% | 5,980 | 40.9% | 4,260 | 1.6% | 167 | 10,407 |
| Whitley | 62.9% | 8,332 | 36.0% | 4,758 | 1.1% | 149 | 13,239 |
Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican
[edit]- Madison (largest city: Anderson)
- Spencer (largest city: Santa Claus)
- Tippecanoe (largest city: Lafayette)
- Blackford (Largest city: Hartford City)
- Crawford (Largest city: Marengo) (became tied)
- Floyd (Largest city: New Albany)
- Gibson (Largest city: Princeton)
- Jefferson (Largest city: Madison)
- Posey (Largest city: Mount Vernon)
- Switzerland (Largest city: Vevay) (became tied)
- Warrick (Largest city: Boonville)
- Adams (Largest city: Decatur)
- Allen (Largest city: Fort Wayne)
- Bartholomew (Largest city: Columbus)
- Benton (Largest city: Fowler)
- Brown (Largest city: Nashville)
- Carroll (Largest city: Delphi)
- Warrick (Largest city: Logansport)
- Clay (Largest city: Brazil)
- Decatur (Largest city: Greensburg)
- DeKalb (Largest city: Auburn)
- Dubois (Largest city: Jasper)
- Fayette (Largest city: Connersville)
- Fountain (Largest city: Attica)
- Franklin (Largest city: Brookville)
- Fulton (Largest city: Rochester)
- Grant (Largest city: Marion)
- Greene (Largest city: Linton)
- Hancock (Largest city: Greenfield)
- Harrison (Largest city: Corydon)
- Henry (Largest city: New Castle)
- Howard (Largest city: Kokomo)
- Jackson (Largest city: Seymour)
- Jay (Largest city: Portland)
- Jennings (Largest city: North Vernon)
- LaGrange (Largest city: LaGrange)
- Marshall (Largest city: Plymouth)
- Martin (Largest city: Loogootee)
- Montgomery (Largest city: Crawfordsville)
- Newton (Largest city: Kentland)
- Noble (Largest city: Kendallville)
- Ohio (Largest city: Rising Sun)
- Orange (Largest city: Paoli)
- Owen (Largest city: Spencer)
- Parke (Largest city: Rockville)
- Pulaski (Largest city: Winamac)
- Putnam (Largest city: Greencastle)
- Randolph (Largest city: Winchester)
- Ripley (Largest city: Batesville)
- Rush (Largest city: Rushville)
- Shelby (Largest city: Shelbyville)
- Steuben (Largest city: Angola)
- Tipton (Largest city: Tipton)
- Warren (Largest city: Williamsport)
- Washington (Largest city: Salem)
- Wayne (Largest city: Richmond)
- White (Largest city: Monticello)
- Whitley (Largest city: Columbia City)
Notes
[edit]- ^ Key:
A – all adults
RV – registered voters
LV – likely voters
V – unclear
References
[edit]- ^ "Republicans to stand alone at state's helm". The Indianapolis Star. November 7, 2004. Archived from the original on November 10, 2007. Retrieved February 21, 2008.
- ^ a b c d "Daniels vows changes to government, economy after ending Democratic rule". The Indianapolis Star. November 3, 2004. Archived from the original on June 5, 2011. Retrieved February 21, 2008.
- ^ "Indiana election results 2004". The Washington Post. November 24, 2004. Retrieved February 20, 2008.
- ^ a b "2004 Official Primary Election Totals" (PDF). Indiana Secretary of State.
- ^ "The Race for Indiana Governor Is Now Set". NFIB.com. May 5, 2004. Archived from the original on November 12, 2008. Retrieved February 19, 2008.
- ^ "Daniels wins Ind. GOP nomination for governor". USA Today. May 4, 2004. Retrieved February 21, 2008.
- ^ "GOP, Daniels see breakthrough to governor's office". CNN. November 1, 2004. Retrieved February 21, 2008.
- ^ a b "Indiana General Election November 2, 2004, Statewide". Indiana Secretary of State. November 2, 2004. Retrieved April 21, 2011.
- ^ DeAgostino, Martin (June 30, 2004). "Libertarians vow to end property tax". Newspapers.com. The South Bend Tribune. Retrieved March 7, 2021.
- ^ "Indiana gubernatorial candidates outline differences in debate". Online NewsHour. September 29, 2004. Retrieved February 20, 2008.
- ^ "Indiana gubernatorial candidates spar over negative campaigning". Online NewsHour. October 18, 2004. Retrieved February 20, 2008.
- ^ "Spending Soars in 11 Gubernatorial Races". Fox News Channel. November 1, 2004. Retrieved February 21, 2008.
- ^ "The Final Predictions". Sabato's Crystal Ball. Retrieved May 2, 2021.
- ^ SurveyUSA
- ^ "Indiana General Election November 2, 2004, by County". Indiana Secretary of State. November 2, 2004. Retrieved November 9, 2008.
See also
[edit]- Advance America - Political lobbying organization run by Eric Miller