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2017 United States Senate special election in Alabama

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2017 United States Senate special election in Alabama
← 2014 December 12, 2017 (2017-12-12) 2020 →
Turnout40.5%[1] Increase
 
Nominee Doug Jones Roy Moore
Party Democratic Republican
Popular vote 673,896 651,972
Percentage 49.97% 48.34%
Jones:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%      >90%
Moore:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%      >90%
Tie:      40–50%      50%      No data
U.S. senator before election

Luther Strange[a]
Republican

Elected U.S. Senator

Doug Jones
Democratic

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The 2017 United States Senate special election in Alabama took place on December 12, 2017, in order for the winner to serve the remainder of the U.S. Senate term ending on January 3, 2021. A vacancy arose from Senator Jeff Sessions's February 8, 2017, resignation from the Senate. Sessions resigned his post to serve as the 84th U.S. attorney general. On February 9, 2017, Governor Robert J. Bentley appointed Luther Strange, the attorney general of Alabama, to fill the vacancy until a special election could take place. The special election was scheduled for December 12, 2017.[2]

Doug Jones, a former U.S. attorney for the Northern District of Alabama, won the Democratic primary election. Roy Moore, a former chief justice of the Supreme Court of Alabama, competed with Strange and U.S. Representative Mo Brooks in the August 15, 2017, Republican primary; the two highest vote-getters, Moore and Strange, advanced to a runoff.[3] President Donald Trump supported Strange during the primary runoff, as did much of the Republican establishment in the Senate.[4][5] Moore won the primary runoff on September 26, 2017.[6][7]

Following the primaries, Moore was expected to easily win the general election. Polling showed him with a clear lead, and Alabama is known for its overwhelming support for Republicans. The race was upended in mid-November 2017, when multiple women alleged that Moore had made unwanted advances or sexually assaulted them when he was in his early thirties and they were in their teens (the youngest was 14 at the time), attracting widespread national media coverage of the election.[8][9] As a result of these allegations, many national Republican leaders and office holders called for Moore to withdraw from the special election, rescinded their endorsements of him, and stopped funding his campaign.[10][11][12] Trump and many Alabama Republicans reaffirmed their support.[13] At the time of the revelations, it was too late to remove his name from the ballot.

On December 12, 2017, Jones won by a margin of 1.63% or 21,924 votes; however, Moore refused to concede.[14][15] Jones' victory was widely labeled a major upset. He was sworn into office on January 3, 2018, becoming the first Democratic U.S. senator from Alabama since Howell Heflin left office in 1997.[16] This is the only time Democrats won a statewide election in Alabama since 2008, when Lucy Baxley was elected President of the Alabama Public Service Commission.

Background

[edit]

Potential appointees

[edit]

Following then-President-elect Donald Trump's nomination of then-Senator Sessions to be U.S. attorney general, Robert Aderholt, a member of the United States House of Representatives, had asked to be appointed to the seat.[17] Representative Mo Brooks had also expressed interest in the seat, while Strange had stated before being selected that he would run for the seat in the special election whether or not he was appointed.[18][19] Other candidates Governor Bentley interviewed for the Senate appointment included Moore; Del Marsh, the president pro tempore of the Alabama Senate; and Jim Byard, the director of the Alabama Department of Economic and Community Affairs.[20]

A vacancy arose from Senator Jeff Sessions' February 8, 2017 resignation to serve as the 84th U.S. attorney general. On February 9, 2017, Governor Robert J. Bentley appointed State Attorney General Luther Strange to fill the vacancy until a special election could take place. Bentley controversially scheduled the special election to occur in 2018 instead of sooner.[21][22] When Kay Ivey succeeded Bentley as Alabama's Governor, she rescheduled the special election for December 12, 2017, a move she said was made to adhere with state law.[2]

Republican primary

[edit]

Campaign

[edit]

The Republican primary attracted national attention, especially following Trump's endorsement of incumbent Senator Luther Strange. Strange was backed by several key figures within the Republican establishment, most notably Mitch McConnell, the Senate Majority Leader. His two main rivals in the primary were former state judge Roy Moore and Congressman Mo Brooks. While Strange was expected to advance through the first round of the primary, almost every opinion poll showed him trailing Roy Moore in a potential runoff. Strange placed second behind Roy Moore, securing a spot in the runoff.[23]

Candidates

[edit]

Nominated

[edit]

Eliminated in runoff

[edit]

Eliminated in primary

[edit]

Withdrew

[edit]

Declined

[edit]

Endorsements

[edit]
Roy Moore

Executive Branch officials

U.S. senators

U.S. representatives

Statewide officials

State senators

State Representatives

Local officials

Organizations

Individuals

Luther Strange

Executive Branch officials

U.S. senators

State representatives

Organizations

Mo Brooks

U.S. representatives

State representatives

  • Ed Henry, state representative and chairman of Donald Trump's Alabama campaign[97]

Organizations

Individuals

First round

[edit]

Polling

[edit]
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin
of error 		James
Beretta 		Joseph
Breault 		Randy
Brinson 		Mo
Brooks 		Mary
Maxwell 		Roy
Moore 		Bryan
Peeples 		Trip
Pittman 		Luther
Strange 		Undecided
Trafalgar Group (R)[107] August 12–13, 2017 870 ± 3.3% 1% 1% 6% 17% 1% 38% 1% 6% 24% 5%
Emerson College[108] August 10–12, 2017 373 ± 5.0% 1% 0% 0% 15% 0% 29% 0% 10% 32% 11%
Trafalgar Group (R)[109] August 8–10, 2017 1,439 ± 2.6% 1% 1% 4% 20% 2% 35% 1% 6% 23% 8%
Cygnal (R)[110] August 8–9, 2017 502 ± 4.4% – – 2% 18% – 31% – 7% 23% 13%
Strategy Research[111] August 7, 2017 2,000 ± 2.0% 1% 1% 1% 19% 4% 35% 1% 9% 29% 0%
JMC Analytics (R)[112] August 5–6, 2017 500 ± 4.4% – – 2% 19% – 30% – 6% 22% 17%
RRH Elections (R)[113] July 31 – August 3, 2017 426 ± 5.0% – – 2% 18% – 31% – 8% 29% 11%
Strategy Research[114] July 24, 2017 3,000 ± 2.0% 1% 1% 2% 16% 5% 33% 2% 5% 35% –
Cygnal (R)[115] July 20–21, 2017 500 ± 2.0% – – – 16% – 26% – – 33% –

Results

[edit]
Primary results by county
  Moore
  •   30–40%
  •   40–50%
  •   50–60%
  •   60–70%
  Strange
  •   30–40%
  •   40–50%
  •   50–60%
  Brooks
  •   40–50%
  •   50–60%
Republican primary results, August 15, 2017[3]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Roy Moore 164,524 38.9%
Republican Luther Strange (incumbent) 138,971 32.8%
Republican Mo Brooks 83,287 19.7%
Republican Trip Pittman 29,124 6.9%
Republican Randy Brinson 2,978 0.6%
Republican Bryan Peeples 1,579 0.4%
Republican Mary Maxwell 1,543 0.4%
Republican James Beretta 1,078 0.3%
Republican Dom Gentile 303 0.1%
Republican Joseph Breault 252 0.1%
Total votes 423,282 100.0%

Runoff

[edit]

President Donald Trump supported Strange during the primary runoff, in addition to much of the Republican establishment in the Senate, including Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, who made the success of Strange's candidacy a major priority.[4][5] Trump's efforts on behalf of Strange included tweeting and a rally in Huntsville, Alabama.[116] Vice President Mike Pence campaigned for Strange as well.[117][6] With McConnell's help, Strange outspent Moore by a margin of 10-to-1.[117][118]

National interest in the race dramatically increased in the month before the runoff. Strange maintained his endorsement from Trump, who campaigned for him in Huntsville during the closing days of the campaign.[116] Trump's endorsement of Strange sparked criticism among his own base, many of whom preferred Moore and detested Strange for being seemingly too friendly with the GOP establishment. Several notable figures close to Trump broke from the president to endorse Moore, including HUD Secretary Ben Carson and Breitbart Executive Chairman Steve Bannon. Despite Trump's endorsement, Strange was defeated by Roy Moore in the runoff,[119] 54.6%-45.4%.[120]

Moore won the primary runoff on September 26, 2017.[6][7] This was the first time that an incumbent U.S. senator having active White House support lost a primary since Arlen Specter lost to Joe Sestak in 2010.[121]

Debates

[edit]
2017 Alabama Senate Republican primary runoff debate
No. Date Host Moderator Link Republican Republican
Key:
 P  Participant   A  Absent   N  Not invited   I  Invited  W  Withdrawn
Strange Moore
1 Sep. 21, 2017 Raycom Media Hal Fulmer C-SPAN P P

Averages

[edit]
Model Moore Strange Spread
RealClearPolitics[122] 52.5% 41.5% Moore +11.0

Polling

[edit]
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin
of error 		Roy
Moore 		Luther
Strange 		Undecided
Cygnal (R)[123] September 23–24, 2017 996 ± 3.1% 52% 41% 7%
Trafalgar Group (R)[124] September 23–24, 2017 1,073 ± 3.0% 57% 41% 2%
Optimus (R)[125] September 22–23, 2017 1,045 ± 2.9% 55% 45% –
Emerson College[126] September 21–23, 2017 367 ± 5.1% 50% 40% 10%
Gravis Marketing[127] September 21–22, 2017 559 ± 4.1% 48% 40% 12%
Strategy Research[128] September 20, 2017 2,000 ± 3.0% 54% 46% –
Strategy Research[129] September 18, 2017 2,930 ± 3.0% 53% 47% –
JMC Analytics (R)[130] September 16–17, 2017 500 ± 4.4% 47% 39% 14%
Voter Consumer Research (R-SLF)[131] September 9–10, 2017 604 ± 4.0% 41% 40% 19%
Emerson College[132] September 8–9, 2017 355 ± 5.2% 40% 26% 34%
Strategic National[133] September 6–7, 2017 800 ± 3.5% 51% 35% 14%
Southeast Research[134] August 29–31, 2017 401 ± 5.0% 52% 36% 12%
Harper Polling[135] August 24–26, 2017 600 ± 4.0% 47% 45% 8%
Voter Consumer Research (R-SLF)[136] August 21–23, 2017 601 ± 4.0% 45% 41% 14%
Opinion Savvy[137] August 22, 2017 494 ± 4.4% 50% 32% 18%
JMC Analytics (R)[138] August 17–19, 2017 515 ± 4.3% 51% 32% 17%
Cygnal (R)[110] August 8–9, 2017 502 ± 4.4% 45% 34% 11%
RRH Elections (R)[139] July 31 – August 3, 2017 426 ± 5.0% 34% 32% 34%
Hypothetical polling
Poll source Date(s)

administered

Sample
size 		Margin
of error 		Roy
Moore 		Mo
Brooks 		Undecided
RRH Elections (R)[139] July 31 – August 3, 2017 426 ± 5.0% 43% 20% 37%

Fundraising

[edit]
Campaign finance reports as of September 6, 2017
Candidate Raised Spent Cash on hand
Luther Strange (R) $4,185,594 $4,061,521 $631,814
Roy Moore (R) $1,417,416 $1,133,774 $285,407
Source: Federal Election Commission[140]

Results

[edit]
Primary runoff results by county
  Moore
  •   50–60%
  •   60–70%
  •   70–80%
  Strange
  •   50–60%
Republican primary runoff results, September 26, 2017[120]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Roy Moore 262,204 54.59%
Republican Luther Strange (incumbent) 218,066 45.41%
Total votes 480,270 100.00%

Democratic primary

[edit]

Candidates

[edit]

Nominated

[edit]

Eliminated in primary

[edit]

Withdrew

[edit]
  • Ron Crumpton, activist, nominee for the state senate in 2014 and nominee for the U.S. Senate in 2016[148][52]
  • Brian McGee, retired teacher and Vietnam War veteran[26][149][150]

Declined

[edit]

Endorsements

[edit]
Doug Jones

Executive Branch officials

U.S. senators

U.S. representatives

State legislators

Local officials

Newspapers

Organizations

Individuals

Robert Kennedy Jr.

Individual

  • Carl Lewis, Olympic gold medalist and University of Houston track and field head coach[172]

Polling

[edit]
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin
of error 		Will
Boyd 		Vann
Caldwell 		Jason
Fisher 		Michael
Hansen 		Doug
Jones 		Robert
Kennedy Jr. 		Charles
Nana 		Undecided
Emerson College[173] August 10–12, 2017 164 ± 7.6% 8% 2% 1% 0% 40% 23% 1% 25%
Strategy Research[111] August 7, 2017 2,000 ± 2.0% 9% 5% 3% 7% 30% 40% 5% –
Strategy Research[114] July 24, 2017 3,000 ± 2.0% 6% 4% 4% 4% 28% 49% 5% –

Results

[edit]
Primary results by county
  Jones
  •   ≥90%
  •   80–90%
  •   70–80%
  •   60–70%
  •   50–60%
  •   40–50%
  Boyd
  •   Boyd—30–40%
Democratic primary results[3]
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Doug Jones 109,105 66.1%
Democratic Robert Kennedy Jr. 29,215 17.7%
Democratic Michael Hansen 11,105 6.7%
Democratic Will Boyd 8,010 4.9%
Democratic Jason Fisher 3,478 2.1%
Democratic Brian McGee 1,450 0.9%
Democratic Charles Nana 1,404 0.9%
Democratic Vann Caldwell 1,239 0.8%
Total votes 165,006 100.0%

Independents and write-in candidates

[edit]

Candidates

[edit]

Declared

[edit]
  • Ron Bishop (L, write-in)[174]
  • Lee Busby (R, write-in), retired Marine colonel[175]
  • Jeff "Cog" Coggin (I, write-in), Air Force veteran[176]
  • Chanda Mills Crutcher (I, write-in), minister[177]
  • Eulas Kirtdoll (I, write-in)[178]
  • Arlester "Mack" McBride (I, write-in)[179]
  • Mac Watson (R, write-in)[180]

Declined

[edit]

General election

[edit]

Controversies

[edit]

Roy Moore sexual misconduct allegations

[edit]
Main article: Roy Moore sexual misconduct allegations

On November 9, The Washington Post reported that four women had accused Roy Moore of engaging in sexual conduct with them when they were teenagers and he was an assistant district attorney in his thirties. One of the women was 14 years old at the time, below the legal age of consent.[8] A few days later a fifth woman said that she had received unwanted attention from Moore when she was 15 years old, and that in December 1977 or January 1978,[181] when she was 16, Moore sexually assaulted her.[9][182] Moore denied the allegations.

After this, certain Republican leaders and conservative organizations withdrew their endorsements of Moore or asked him to drop out of the campaign. These included Texas Senator Ted Cruz, U.S. Attorney General and former seat holder Jeff Sessions, Ivanka Trump,[183] the National Republican Senatorial Committee,[184] former Republican presidential nominees Mitt Romney[185] and John McCain,[186] Republican Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell,[187] Ohio Governor John Kasich,[188] Utah Senator Mike Lee,[189] Montana Senator Steve Daines,[190] and House Representatives Barbara Comstock, Carlos Curbelo, and Adam Kinzinger, as well as the Young Republican Federation of Alabama.[191][192][193][194][195] The state's senior Senator Richard Shelby also refused to endorse Moore. Other conservative websites and organizations such as National Review urged readers not to vote for Moore.[196][197] Despite this, Moore continued to receive support from the state party and a week before the election, President Donald Trump strongly endorsed Moore.[198] Following Trump's endorsement, the RNC reinstated their support for him,[199] and Republican leaders said they would "let the people of Alabama decide" whether to elect Moore.[200]

At the time of the revelations, it was too close to the election for Moore's name to be removed from the ballot, as Alabama law forbids any change to names on the ballot within 76 days of any primary or general election.[201] Republican officials proposed various ways to promote an alternate Republican candidate. One suggestion was to ask Governor Kay Ivey to delay the special election until 2018,[202] but Ivey said she had no plans to change the election date.[203] Some Republicans such as Senator Lisa Murkowski floated the prospect of a write-in campaign to elect Luther Strange, with Utah Senator Orrin Hatch actively endorsing a write-in campaign for Strange.[204] However, Strange said it was "highly unlikely" that he would run a write-in campaign.[205] Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell proposed Attorney General Jeff Sessions, who formerly held the Senate seat, as a write-in candidate.[206] In late November, Retired Marine Col. Lee Busby launched a write-in campaign, stating that he thought there was room for a centrist in the race.[207]

Debates

[edit]

Republican nominee Roy Moore refused to debate Democratic nominee Doug Jones.[208][209][210] Moore turned down debate invitations extended by the League of Women Voters,[209] WHNT-TV and AL.com.[210][208] Jones' campaign said that Jones was "willing to debate Roy Moore anytime, anywhere" and accused Moore of "hiding from the voters, from the media and from his record for weeks."[210][208] Moore and his campaign stated that he refused to debate Jones because their policy positions were already clear to voters and thus there was no need for a formal debate.[210][208]

Predictions

[edit]
Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[211] Tossup December 7, 2017
Sabato's Crystal Ball[212] Tossup December 7, 2017
Rothenberg Political Report[213] Tossup December 7, 2017

Candidates

[edit]

On ballot

[edit]

Write-in

[edit]

Endorsements

[edit]
Doug Jones (D)

Executive Branch officials

U.S. senators

U.S. representatives

Statewide officials

State legislators

Local officials

Individuals

Newspapers

Organizations

Roy Moore (R)

U.S. Executive Branch officials

U.S. Senators

U.S. Representatives

Statewide office holders

State Senators

State Representatives

Sheriffs

Political commentators

Religious leaders

White nationalists

Other individuals

Organizations

Fundraising

[edit]
Campaign finance reports as of November 22, 2017
Candidate Raised Spent Cash on hand
Doug Jones (D) $11,683,671 $8,941,988 $2,610,481
Roy Moore (R) $4,291,702 $3,616,629 $636,046
Source: Federal Election Commission[381]

Polling

[edit]
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin
of error 		Roy
Moore (R) 		Doug
Jones (D) 		Lee
Busby (R)
write-in 		Other Undecided
Change Research[382] December 9–11, 2017 1,543 ± 2.0% 51% 45% – – 4%
SurveyMonkey[383] November 30 – December 11, 2017 2,203 ± 4.5% 47% 49% – – 4%
Fox News[384] December 7–10, 2017 1,127 ± 3.0% 40% 50% – 2% 8%
Emerson College[385] December 7–9, 2017 600 ± 3.9% 53% 44% – 4% –
Monmouth University[386] December 6–9, 2017 546 ± 4.2% 46% 46% – 2% 6%
Public Policy Polling (D)*[387] December 7–8, 2017 1,092 ± 3.8% 46% 48% – – 6%
Gravis Marketing[388] December 5–8, 2017 1,254 ± 2.8% 49% 45% – – 6%
Trafalgar Group (R)[389] December 6–7, 2017 1,419 ± 3.1% 51% 46% – 3% –
Change Research[390] December 5–7, 2017 2,443 ± 2.0% 51% 44% – – 5%
SurveyMonkey[391] November 30 – December 7, 2017 1,559 ± 5.5% 47% 49% – – 4%
Strategy Research[392] December 4, 2017 3,200 ± 2.0% 50% 43% – 3% 4%
Gravis Marketing[393] December 1–3, 2017 1,276 ± 2.7% 44% 48% – – 8%
Emerson College[394] November 30 – December 2, 2017 500 ± 4.3% 49% 46% 5% – –
YouGov[395] November 28 – December 1, 2017 1,067 ± 3.8% 49% 43% – 4% 4%
Washington Post/Schar School[396] November 27–30, 2017 739 ± 4.5% 47% 50% – 3% –
JMC Analytics (R)[397] November 27–28, 2017 650 ± 3.8% 49% 44% – 5%[398] 2%
National Research Inc (R)[399] November 26–28, 2017 600 ± 4.0% 46% 45% – – 9%
Change Research[400] November 26–27, 2017 1,868 ± 2.3% 49% 44% – – 7%
Emerson College[401] November 25–27, 2017 500 ± 4.3% 53% 47% – – –
Strategy Research[402] November 20, 2017 3,000 ± 2.0% 47% 45% – 3% 5%
WT&S Consulting (R)[403] November 18–20, 2017 11,641 ± 1.2% 46% 40% – – 13%
Change Research[404] November 15–16, 2017 2,090 – 43% 46% – – 11%
National Research Inc[405] November 13–16, 2017 600 ± 4.0% 41% 49% – – 10%
Gravis Marketing[406] November 14–15, 2017 628 ± 3.5% 42% 47% – – 11%
Fox News[407] November 13–15, 2017 649 ± 3.5% 42% 50% – 2% 7%
Strategy Research[408] November 13, 2017 3,000 ± 2.0% 49% 43% – – 8%
NRSC (R)[409] November 12–13, 2017 500 – 39% 51% – – 10%
WT&S Consulting (R)[410] November 11, 2017 1,536 ± 3.3% 50% 40% – – 11%
Emerson College[411] November 9–11, 2017 600 ± 3.9% 55% 45% – – –
JMC Analytics (R)[412] November 9–11, 2017 575 ± 4.1% 44% 48% – 2%[413] 6%
Change Research[414] November 9–11, 2017 1,855 – 44% 40% – 3% 13%
Gravis Marketing[415] November 10, 2017 478 ± 4.5% 48% 46% – – 6%
WT&S Consulting (R)[410] November 9, 2017 1,354 ± 3.5% 50% 39% – – 11%
Opinion Savvy[416] November 9, 2017 515 ± 4.3% 46% 46% – 4% 4%
November 9, 2024 Moore Sexual Misconduct Allegations Reported
NRSC (R)[409] November 6–7, 2017 – – 51% 42% – – 8%
Strategy Research[417] November 6, 2017 2,200 ± 2.0% 51% 40% – – 9%
Axis Research (R-SLF)[418] October 24–26, 2017 503 ± 4.5% 56% 39% – – 5%
Strategy Research[419] October 19, 2017 3,000 ± 3.0% 52% 41% – – 7%
Strategy Research[420] October 16, 2017 3,000 ± 2.5% 51% 40% – – 9%
Fox News[421] October 14–16, 2017 801 ± 3.5% 42% 42% – 3% 11%
NRSC (R)[409] October 3–5, 2017 – – 53% 37% – – 10%
Cygnal (R)[422] October 2–5, 2017 497 ± 4.4% 49% 41% – – 9%
JMC Analytics (R)[423] September 30 – October 1, 2017 500 ± 4.4% 48% 40% – 1%[424] 11%
Opinion Savvy[425] September 27–28, 2017 590 ± 4.0% 50% 45% – – 5%
Emerson College[126] September 21–23, 2017 519 ± 4.3% 52% 30% – – 18%
Emerson College[132] September 8–9, 2017 416 ± 4.8% 44% 40% – – 16%
* Unpublished poll released on December 15
Hypothetical polling

with Roy Moore on ballot and Luther Strange as write-in candidate:

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin
of error 		Roy
Moore (R) 		Doug
Jones (D) 		Luther
Strange (R) 		Other Undecided
Opinion Savvy[426] November 9, 2017 515 ± 4.3% 41% 44% 12% 1% 2%

with Luther Strange on ballot:

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin
of error 		Luther
Strange (R) 		Doug
Jones (D) 		Other Undecided
Fox News[427] November 13–15, 2017 649 LV ± 3.5% 38% 48% 3% 5%
823 RV ± 3.0% 39% 46% 3% 6%
Emerson College[428] September 21–23, 2017 519 ± 4.3% 49% 36% – 15%
Emerson College[429] September 8–9, 2017 416 ± 4.8% 43% 40% – 17%

with generic Republican/Democrat

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin
of error 		Generic
Republican 		Generic
Democrat 		Undecided
Washington Post/Schar School[430] November 27–30, 2017 739 ± 4.5% 50% 44% 6%
JMC Analytics (R)[431] November 27–28, 2017 650 ± 3.8% 49% 46% 3%
JMC Analytics (R)[432] November 9–11, 2017 575 ± 4.1% 45% 47% 8%
JMC Analytics (R)[433] September 30 – October 1, 2017 500 ± 4.4% 49% 45% 6%

Results

[edit]
Turnout map by county
  25–30%
  30–35%
  35–40%
  40–45%
  45–50%
  50–55%

At 9:23 p.m. CST on December 12, 2017, the Associated Press called the election for Jones; however, Moore refused to concede.[14][15] Jones was the first Democratic candidate to win a statewide election in Alabama since former lieutenant governor Lucy Baxley was elected president of the Alabama Public Service Commission in 2008.[434] Jones was sworn into office on January 3, 2018, becoming the first Democratic U.S. senator from Alabama since Howell Heflin left office in 1997.[16]

United States Senate special election in Alabama, 2017[435][436]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Democratic Doug Jones 673,896 49.97% +49.97%
Republican Roy Moore 651,972 48.34% −48.91%
Write-in 22,852 1.69% −1.06%
Total votes 1,348,720 100.00% N/A
Democratic gain from Republican

By congressional district

[edit]

Despite losing the state, Moore won 6 of 7 congressional districts. However, he only won one district by a margin of more than 10 percentage points.[437]

District Moore Jones Representative
1st 50% 48% Bradley Byrne
2nd 53% 45% Martha Roby
3rd 51% 48% Mike Rogers
4th 68% 30% Robert Aderholt
5th 48.8% 48.7% Mo Brooks
6th 53% 45% Gary Palmer
7th 20% 79% Terri Sewell

By county

[edit]
Doug Jones Roy Moore Write-ins Total votes
County Votes % Votes % Votes % Turnout %
Autauga 5,615 38.38% 8,762 59.90% 253 1.73% 14,630 38.32%
Baldwin 22,261 35.60% 38,566 61.68% 1,703 2.72% 62,530 42.74%
Barbour 3,716 57.53% 2,702 41.83% 41 0.63% 6,459 38.35%
Bibb 1,567 29.95% 3,599 68.79% 66 1.26% 5,232 38.32%
Blount 2,408 16.94% 11,631 81.80% 180 1.27% 14,219 37.45%
Bullock 2,715 80.37% 656 19.42% 7 0.21% 3,378 45.53%
Butler 2,915 51.02% 2,758 48.27% 41 0.72% 5,714 42.36%
Calhoun 12,331 44.04% 15,238 54.43% 429 1.53% 27,998 36.18%
Chambers 4,257 55.75% 3,312 43.37% 67 0.88% 7,636 32.42%
Cherokee 1,529 27.09% 4,006 70.98% 109 1.93% 5,644 33.00%
Chilton 2,306 23.06% 7,563 75.62% 132 1.32% 10,001 35.42%
Choctaw 2,277 53.66% 1,949 45.93% 17 0.40% 4,243 40.10%
Clarke 4,363 51.93% 3,995 47.55% 43 0.51% 8,401 43.96%
Clay 990 27.52% 2,589 71.96% 19 0.53% 3,598 36.92%
Cleburne 600 19.37% 2,468 79.66% 30 0.97% 3,098 29.47%
Coffee 3,730 31.10% 8,063 67.22% 202 1.68% 11,995 36.52%
Colbert 6,881 46.41% 7,771 52.41% 171 1.15% 14,828 37.75%
Conecuh 2,259 55.21% 1,815 44.35% 18 0.44% 4,092 39.84%
Coosa 1,415 42.71% 1,867 56.39% 30 0.91% 3,312 41.42%
Covington 2,107 23.33% 6,835 75.69% 88 0.97% 9,030 35.09%
Crenshaw 1,320 35.46% 2,347 63.04% 56 1.50% 3,725 37.66%
Cullman 4,161 19.73% 16,609 78.74% 324 1.54% 21,094 37.61%
Dale 3,844 35.04% 6,991 63.72% 136 1.24% 10,971 34.87%
Dallas 10,503 74.75% 3,487 24.82% 60 0.43% 14,050 44.88%
DeKalb 3,559 25.62% 10,097 72.69% 234 1.68% 13,890 34.31%
Elmore 7,711 34.33% 14,415 64.16% 338 1.50% 22,464 41.34%
Escambia 3,642 41.78% 4,987 57.22% 87 1.00% 8,716 35.39%
Etowah 10,568 40.34% 15,730 60.04% 620 2.37% 26,918 38.57%
Fayette 1,143 24.39% 3,491 74.55% 50 1.07% 4,684 38.40%
Franklin 1,771 29.34% 4,216 69.86% 48 0.80% 6,035 33.50%
Geneva 1,290 18.92% 5,433 79.72% 93 1.37% 6,816 37.84%
Greene 3,345 87.64% 462 12.12% 9 0.24% 3,816 53.89%
Hale 3,902 69.33% 1,691 30.11% 32 0.57% 5,625 46.26%
Henry 1,899 38.32% 3,015 60.91% 38 0.77% 4,952 39.20%
Houston 9,198 37.81% 14,846 61.02% 285 1.17% 24,329 34.18%
Jackson 3,330 30.82% 7,317 67.75% 154 1.43% 10,801 29.44%
Jefferson 149,759 68.13% 66,350 30.18% 3,716 1.69% 219,825 47.38%
Lamar 779 21.31% 2,847 77.89% 29 0.79% 3,655 34.46%
Lauderdale 9,970 43.02% 12,818 55.31% 388 1.67% 23,176 37.53%
Lawrence 3,033 36.04% 5,321 63.23% 61 0.72% 8,415 35.49%
Lee 19,886 57.61% 14,059 40.73% 674 1.95% 34,519 32.90%
Limestone 9,606 39.19% 14,298 58.33% 515 2.10% 24,514 41.18%
Lowndes 3,783 79.08% 988 20.65% 13 0.27% 4,784 47.14%
Macon 5,783 88.14% 759 11.56% 20 0.30% 6,567 37.70%
Madison 65,997 56.98% 46,381 40.04% 3,447 2.98% 115,825 45.68%
Marengo 4,498 61.11% 2,805 38.11% 62 0.84% 7,361 46.01%
Marion 1,311 19.72% 5,269 79.25% 68 1.02% 6,647 32.82%
Marshall 5,145 26.47% 13,842 71.21% 450 2.32% 19,437 34.22%
Mobile 62,716 56.46% 46,828 42.15% 1,546 1.39% 111,090 38.55%
Monroe 3,266 49.59% 3,280 49.80% 40 0.61% 6,586 40.79%
Montgomery 48,374 72.35% 17,739 26.53% 745 1.11% 66,858 44.05%
Morgan 10,935 35.48% 19,215 62.34% 671 2.18% 30,821 40.28%
Perry 3,140 79.04% 821 20.68% 11 0.28% 3,972 48.70%
Pickens 3,064 50.44% 2,965 48.81% 46 0.76% 6,075 44.18%
Pike 4,015 48.51% 4,165 50.32% 97 1.17% 8,277 37.58%
Randolph 1,695 34.25% 3,231 65.29% 23 0.46% 4,949 29.66%
Russell 6,761 64.77% 3,622 34.70% 55 0.53% 10,438 28.52%
Shelby 27,311 41.71% 36,455 55.67% 1,718 2.62% 65,484 45.63%
St. Clair 6,212 27.43% 15,889 70.15% 459 2.03% 22,560 38.05%
Sumter 3,527 80.91% 814 18.67% 18 0.41% 4,359 43.95%
Talladega 9,977 50.13% 9,701 48.75% 223 1.12% 19,901 37.45%
Tallapoosa 4,605 38.59% 7,179 60.16% 150 1.26% 11,934 40.19%
Tuscaloosa 30,869 57.23% 22,067 40.91% 1,007 1.87% 53,943 40.83%
Walker 4,330 26.20% 11,938 72.23% 259 1.57% 16,527 35.19%
Washington 1,805 34.86% 3,325 64.21% 48 0.93% 5,178 39.78%
Wilcox 3,345 76.74% 1,000 22.94% 16 0.37% 4,359 46.94%
Winston 911 16.10% 4,681 82.71% 67 1.18% 5,659 35.80%
Totals 673,896 49.97% 651,972 48.34% 22,852 1.69% 1,348,720 100.00%
Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

Analysis

[edit]
External videos
video icon Doug Jones election night remarks, December 12, 2017, C-SPAN
video icon Roy Moore election night remarks, December 12, 2017, C-SPAN
Jones on stage following his victory
Write-in votes by county:
  <1%
  >1%
  >2%
  >3%

Doug Jones defeated Roy Moore by a margin of 21,924 votes. Voter turnout was 40.54% of Alabama's 3,326,812[438] registered voters.

Jones won primarily by running up huge margins in the state's major cities, as well as winning 96% of African American voters. The state's four largest counties—Jefferson (home to the state's largest city of Birmingham), Mobile (home to Mobile), Madison (home to Huntsville), and Montgomery (home to the state capital of Montgomery)—all gave Jones 56 percent or more of the vote. He carried Jefferson by over 83,800 votes, and Montgomery by almost 30,500 votes; either county would have been more than enough to give him the victory. Jones also dominated the Black Belt. Jones won 61% of votes from voters under 45, and 51% of independent voters. While Moore dominated the state's rural areas outside of the Black Belt, he significantly underperformed Trump's totals in those areas, as well as the suburbs such as traditional GOP fortress Shelby County, which Moore won by a small margin.[439]

An envelope to a Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee fundraising mailer distributed in 2018 with a reference to Jones' victory in the traditionally strongly Republican state of Alabama

As of December 15, Moore demanded a recount and refused to concede the race, despite being urged by Trump, Bannon, and others to concede. In Alabama, if the final margin of victory is less than 0.5%, then a recount is automatically triggered. If not, then either candidate can request a recount at their own expense.[440][441] However, Alabama Secretary of State John Merrill estimated that a recount could cost anywhere from $1 million to $1.5 million, an amount that would have had to be paid in full when the request is made. Moore had only $636,046 on hand by the time the campaign ended.[442] A number of right-leaning websites pushed conspiracy theories about voter fraud providing the margin for Jones.[443] Merrill noted on December 20 that the only outstanding ballots were 366 military ballots and 4,967 provisional ballots; even if all those votes were for Moore, it would not have been enough to trigger an automatic recount.[444]

Because the number of write-in votes was larger than Jones' margin of victory, the names written in were both counted and listed.[445] Luther Strange, who lost the Republican primary to Moore, received the most write-in votes, followed by former White House aide Lee Busby, U.S. Rep. Mo Brooks, who also ran in the Republican Senate primary, Libertarian write-in candidate Ron Bishop, and Attorney General Jeff Sessions. Nick Saban, Alabama's head coach, finished in seventh with more than 250 votes.[446]

After the election, Moore filed a lawsuit attempting to block the state from certifying the election and calling for an investigation into voter fraud. On December 28, 2017, a judge dismissed this lawsuit and state officials certified the election results, officially declaring Doug Jones the winner.[447] Jones was sworn into office on January 3, 2018, by Vice President Mike Pence.[16] Jones became the first Democrat to win a statewide race in Alabama since former lieutenant governor Lucy Baxley was elected president of the Alabama Public Service Commission in 2008 over Republican Twinkle Andress Cavanaugh.[434] Prior to that, Democrat Jim Folsom Jr. was elected Lieutenant Governor of Alabama in 2006 over Republican Luther Strange.[448] The last Democrat to win a federal statewide election in Alabama was Richard Shelby in 1992, who switched to the Republican Party in late 1994.[449]

Voter demographics

[edit]
CNN Exit Poll
Demographic subgroup Jones Moore % of
Voters
Gender
Men 42 56 49
Women 57 41 51
Age
18–24 years old 59 40 8
25–29 years old 62 35 5
30–39 years old 66 32 12
40–49 years old 53 46 20
50–64 years old 46 53 32
65 and older 40 59 23
Race
White 30 68 66
Black 96 4 29
Race by gender
White men 26 72 35
White women 34 63 31
Black men 93 6 11
Black women 98 2 17
Education
High school or less 44 56 20
Some college education 46 50 36
College degree 52 46 28
Advanced degree 58 39 16
Party ID
Democrats 98 2 37
Republicans 8 91 43
Independents 51 43 21
Ideology
Liberals 86 14 23
Moderates 74 25 31
Conservatives 15 83 45
Children under 18 in your home?
Yes 56 42 35
No 49 50 65
Are sexual misconduct allegations against Moore:
Definitely True 97 2 26
Probably True 82 15 26
Probably False 3 95 27
Definitely False 7 93 15
When did you decide your vote?
Last few days 38 57 12
Earlier in December 47 50 9
In November 53 46 21
Before November 53 46 57
Area type
Urban 85 14 20
Suburban 47 51 38
Rural 36 62 42
Source: CNN[450]

See also

[edit]

Notes

[edit]
  1. ^ In February 2017, Strange was appointed by Governor Robert J. Bentley to fill the vacancy caused by the resignation of Senator Jeff Sessions, who had appointed U.S. attorney general.

References

[edit]
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  292. ^ O'Reilly, Holly [@AynRandPaulRyan] (November 10, 2017). "She worked for Republicans: Luther Strange Jeff Sessions Haley Barbour But she's voting for Doug Jones on December 12. Thank you, @chicmadesimple, and every Republican who will vote their conscience" (Tweet). Retrieved November 23, 2017 – via Twitter.
  293. ^ Oswalt, Patton [@pattonoswalt] (November 12, 2017). "If everyone who followed ME gave @GDouglasJones $1, we could all wave bye-bye to #RoyMooreChildMolester" (Tweet). Retrieved November 23, 2017 – via Twitter.
  294. ^ Painter, Richard W. [@RWPUSA] (September 27, 2017). "Alabama: Unless you want a man who talks like the Taliban representing you in the Senate Doug Jones is your man" (Tweet) – via Twitter.
  295. ^ Parkhomenko, Adam [@AdamParkhomenko] (November 4, 2017). "Russia is actively trying to change the perceptions of voters to favor GOP candidates in Alabama & Virginia. Where the hell is the outrage?" (Tweet). Retrieved November 12, 2017 – via Twitter.
  296. ^ Parnell, Archie [@Archie4Congress] (September 28, 2017). "Pay attention to the #ALSen race, & support @GDouglasJones. Doug Jones can win this special election w your support" (Tweet) – via Twitter.
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  298. ^ Reiner, Carl [@carlreiner] (December 12, 2017). "Doug Jones, I meant Doug Jones, I'm 95* 8 mos and I am forgetful.....don't vote for the sexual predator, Moore, vote JONES!" (Tweet) – via Twitter.
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  302. ^ Schmidt, Steve [@SteveSchmidtSES] (November 10, 2017). "Every Alabama Republican who processes an ounce of decency will vote for Doug Jones on December 12th. Every GOP member of Congress with an ounce of decency will 1. unendorse 2. demand no party money is spent. 3.refuse to caucus with Moore 4. Call for Moore to drop out" (Tweet). Retrieved November 23, 2017 – via Twitter.
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  306. ^ Sinyangwe, Samuel [@samswey] (November 9, 2017). "If Alabama elects Doug Jones to the Senate on 12/12, he'd be seated by 12/15 and effectively *shut down* the GOP legislative agenda.*By next month.*" (Tweet). Retrieved November 23, 2017 – via Twitter.
  307. ^ Skolnik, Michael [@MichaelSkolnik] (December 12, 2017). "Dear Alabama, We believe in you!! Vote for Doug Jones! Sincerely, America" (Tweet) – via Twitter.
  308. ^ Spiro, Topher [@TopherSpiro] (November 11, 2017). "Republicans already stole a Supreme Court seat. Now they're trying to steal a Senate seat by rescheduling the election (!). You know what to do" (Tweet). Retrieved November 23, 2017 – via Twitter.
  309. ^ Takei, George [@GeorgeTakei] (September 26, 2017). "Tonight, AL Republicans nominated anti-LGBT anti-immigrant Roy Moore to be their Senate candidate. Let's help elect Dem Doug Jones instead" (Tweet). Retrieved November 12, 2017 – via Twitter.
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  312. ^ Wallace, George [@MrGeorgeWallace] (December 11, 2017). "People of Alabama, 'Tis I, George Wallace. Do as I, George Wallace, say and vote for Doug Jones. I only want the best for Alabama, as I am George Wallace. Roy Moore hates you & Auburn & the Crimson Tide too. I'm George Wallace & I approved this message & whatnot" (Tweet) – via Twitter.
  313. ^ Jones, Doug [@GDouglasJones] (December 12, 2017). "Thank you @kerrywashington for your support and endorsement! Don't know where to vote? Go to http://VoteForDoug.com pic.twitter.com/fdv5q9Rbo9" (Tweet) – via Twitter.
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  318. ^ Jones, Doug [@GDouglasJones] (December 12, 2017). "Thank you, @BellamyYoung for your kind words and endorsement! Have voting questions? http://VoteForDoug.com pic.twitter.com/e57fPXEvls" (Tweet) – via Twitter.
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  398. ^ Ron Bishop (L, write-in) with 2%, Chanda Mills Crutcher (I, write-in) and Eulas Kirtdoll (I, write-in) with 1% each, Mac Watson (R, write-in) with 0%
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[edit]

Official campaign websites

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