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Northwestern Syria offensive (2024)

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Deterrence of Aggression
Part of the Syrian civil war

  Controlled by the Syrian Arab Republic
  Controlled by the Syrian opposition
  Controlled by the Syrian Democratic Forces
Date27 November 2024 – present (1 week)
Location
Idlib, Aleppo and Hama Governorates, Syria
Status
  • Ongoing
Territorial
changes
  • Syrian opposition forces capture more than 100 towns and villages,[6][7] take control of most of Aleppo, cut off the M5 highway, completely taken control of Shahba region from SDF, and advance towards Hama
Belligerents
Commanders and leaders
 Syria Suhayl al-Hasan[8]
Iran Kioumars Pourhashemi †[9]
Mazloum Abdi
Units involved

Military Operations Command

Syrian opposition Syrian National Army

Ajnad al-Kavkaz[15]
Liwa al-Muhajireen wal-Ansar[15]
Turkistan Islamic Party in Syria[16]

 Syrian Armed Forces

 Russian Armed Forces

Iranian Armed Forces

Pro-Iranian militias[10]

Syrian Democratic Forces
Casualties and losses
  • 237 killed[22]
  • Syrian opposition 54 killed[22]
  • c. 1,000 killed (government claim)[23]

182 killed

  • Syria 161 Syrian soldiers[22]
  • 21 pro-Iranian militiamen[22]
21 captured[24][25]
Iran 1 killed[22][26]
Russia 1+ killed

14+ killed

Unknown Number captured[19]
  • 86 civilians killed by Russian and SAA air and artillery strikes[22]
  • 12 civilians killed by HTS shelling[22]

On 27 November 2024, a coalition of Syrian opposition groups called the Military Operations Command[29] led by Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) and allied Turkish-backed groups[30][31][32] in the Syrian National Army (SNA) launched an offensive against the pro-government Syrian Arab Army (SAA) forces in Idlib, Aleppo and Hama Governorates in Syria.

Codenamed Deterrence of Aggression[b] by HTS and stated as being launched in retaliation for the increased SAA shelling of civilians in the Western Aleppo countryside,[33] the operation is the first time opposition forces launched a military offensive campaign since the March 2020 Idlib ceasefire.[34][35]

On 29 November 2024, HTS and the Syrian Democratic Forces entered Aleppo and captured most of the city, amid the collapse of pro-government forces. The next day, opposition forces made rapid advances, capturing dozens of towns and villages as pro-government forces disintegrated, and advanced toward Hama in central Syria.[5]

Background

Main articles: Northwestern Syria clashes (December 2022–November 2024) and Turkish military operation in Idlib Governorate

Since the March 2020 Idlib ceasefire agreement, large scale operations ceased between opposition and pro-government forces in Northwestern Syria.[36][10] However, opposition groups based in northwestern Syria prepared for a resumption of hostilities, with HTS in particular strengthening its military capabilities by reforming its structures into a "conventional armed force", improving training, and setting up special forces specializing in raids and night-time operations.[10] According to the Kyiv Post, some Islamist social media accounts said that the Idlib-based rebels received some training and other support by Ukraine's Main Directorate of Intelligence.[16] Meanwhile, the Syrian government suffered from growing corruption, with researcher Charles Lister describing it as the "world's biggest narco state" whose "corrupt business elite and a powerful network of military commanders, militia leaders and warlords" were held together by drug trade revenue, especially trade of Captagon.[10] Starting in late 2022, HTS forces launched a series of infiltration and sniper attacks on government forces, leading up to the offensive. Aleppo has been controlled by Bashar al-Assad's government and Iranian-backed militias since the Aleppo offensive in 2016.[36][10]

In October 2024, a large mobilization by HTS and government forces was initiated in the Aleppo countryside, as the Syrian rebels reported that they have been preparing for months for a large-scale offensive against government forces within the city of Aleppo.[37] On 26 November 2024, government forces artillery struck the opposition held town of Ariha, killing and injuring 16 civilians.[38]

Offensive

On 27 November 2024, HTS announced that it had launched an offensive dubbed "Deterrence of Aggression" toward pro-government forces in western Aleppo Governorate.[39] The offensive was a response to recent artillery shelling by the Syrian government of Bashar al-Assad against rebel-held Idlib, which killed at least 30 civilians.[35][36]

Opening advances

During the first 10 hours of the offensive, HTS captured 20 towns and villages from pro-government forces, including the towns of Urm al-Kubra, Anjara, Urm al-Sughra, Sheikh Aqil, Bara, Ajil, Awijil, al-Hawtah, Tal al-Dabaa, Hayr Darkal, Qubtan al-Jabal, al-Saloum, al-Qasimiyah, Kafr Bisin, Hawr, Aznaz and Basratoun. In addition, the 46th regiment base of government forces was besieged by the HTS and captured a few hours later.[1][11] The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights reported that 37 Syrian government soldiers and allied militias and 60 fighters from the opposition forces were killed in the clashes.[35] A Russian special forces unit was ambushed by rebels, who later posted photos of a dead Russian soldier and captured equipment. In response, Syrian and Russian forces launched aerial assaults on areas controlled by rebel groups.[40] Russian fighters also conducted airstrikes around Atarib, Darat Izza, and surrounding villages, while government forces shelled rebel-controlled Idlib, Ariha, Sarmada and other areas in southern Idlib province.[41][42][43]

On 28 November, HTS launched an offensive on the eastern Idlib countryside, capturing the villages of Dadikh, Kafr Batikh and Sheikh Ali as well as a neighborhood in the city of Saraqib. This advance brought them within 2 kilometers of the M5 highway, a strategic route that had been secured by pro-government forces in 2020. HTS also attacked al-Nayrab's airport located east of Aleppo, where Iranian-backed militants have a presence.[44] In the latter half of the day, HTS captured the villages of Kafr Basin, Arnaz and Al-Zarba in the western Aleppo countryside, and cut off the M5 highway.[45] The Syrian rebels had captured around 40 towns and villages in total by the end of the day.[36]

A Russian airstrike killed fifteen civilians in Atarib in the western Aleppo countryside. A further four others were killed in either a Syrian or Russian airstrike in Darat Izza.[46] Iranian state media reported that Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) Brigadier General Kioumars Pourhashemi, who served as a senior military advisor in Syria, was killed by rebels in Aleppo.[36] An SDF fighter was killed by Turkish drone strike in north of Raqqah Governorate.[47]

On 29 November, HTS captured the villages of Tal Karatabeen, Abu Qansa, and Al-Talhiya in Idlib countryside and Al-Mansoura, Jab Kas, and Al-Bawabiya in Aleppo countryside. Strong fighting around the town of Saraqib continued.[48] By this point, other Idlib-based Islamist groups were backing the HTS advance, including Ajnad al-Kavkaz, Liwa al-Muhajireen wal-Ansar,[15] and the Turkistan Islamic Party in Syria.[16] Four civilians were killed and two others were injured by HTS shelling in the al-Hamdaniya neighborhood of Aleppo city.[48] An attack by the SDF was carried near Al-Bab with 15 SNA fighters dying.[49] Seven SNA fighters were killed in a Russian airstrike on a SNA military headquarters in Mare'.[50] Four civilians were also killed in separate Russian airstrikes in Idlib.[51]

Battle of Aleppo

Main article: Battle of Aleppo (2024)

On 29 November, opposition forces entered the Hamdaniya and New Aleppo districts of Aleppo city, after carrying out a double suicide attack with two car bombs.[52] During the latter half of the day, opposition forces seized five districts of Aleppo city, namely Al-Hamdaniya, New Aleppo, 3000 Apartments, Al-Jamiliya, and Salah al-Din. Clashes were reported elsewhere in the city, including its center. Twenty other towns and villages were captured by the opposition forces, including the strategic city of Saraqib amid the collapse of pro-government forces' defense lines. Other towns captured by the opposition forces included, Khan al-Sabil, At-Talhiyah, At-Tarnabah, and Jobas in Idlib countryside and the towns of Khan Touman, Shagheidele, Khalasa, Al-Hadir, Al-Qarasi, Barna, Al-Eis, Talhadiya, Zitan, Al-Mansoura and Al-Bawabiya in Aleppo countryside.[53]

By late 29 November, opposition forces had captured parts of Al-Sukariyya, Al-Furqan, Al-Adhamiya, and Saif al-Dawla districts of Aleppo city, as well as having claimed to have taken control of its main square.[54][55]

In the early hours of 30 November, rebel forces captured the Citadel of Aleppo, the government headquarters in the city, as well as "more than half of Aleppo city".[56][57] By morning, rebel forces had seized control of most of Aleppo, forcing pro-government troops to retreat toward as-Safirah.[58]

Elsewhere in Syria, rebels captured 39 towns and villages, including the town of Abu al-Duhur. Pro-government forces retreated from most of the Idlib Governorate, with the exception of Maarat al-Numan, Khan Shaykhun and Kafranbel. In Aleppo region, pro-government forces withdrew to Aleppo airport, Maskanah, As Safirah and Khanaser road.[4] By the afternoon, opposition forces captured Maarat al-Numan, and the number of towns and villages that fell to rebel forces during the day rose to more than 50.[6]

An airstrike, reportedly of Russian origin, killed 16 civilians and injured 20 others in Aleppo city.[59]

Government withdrawal and SDF advances

On 30 November 2024, amid the collapse of pro-government forces in Northwestern Syria, the Kurdish majority Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), entered the towns of Dayr Hafir, Tell Aran, Tell Hasel, and the Shaykh Najjar district of Aleppo city, taking over from pro-government forces.[60][4] In the afternoon, SDF captured Aleppo International Airport and the towns of Nubl and Al-Zahraa, following the withdrawal of pro-government forces.[61] Clashes between Turkish backed rebels and SDF were reported in Tell Abyad region in northern Raqqa Governorate.[49][62]

Concurrently on 30 November, Turkish-backed Syrian National Army located in the Euphrates Shield region of Turkish occupied northern Syria announced the start of "Operation Dawn of Freedom" with the objective of cutting off SDF's supply networks and establishing a corridor connecting al-Bab to Tel Rifaat. SNA forces captured the town of Tadef from pro-government forces during their advances as pro-government forces began withdrawing from the region.[63][64]

Advances toward Hama

Main article: 2024 Hama offensive

On the evening of 30 November 2024, opposition forces led by HTS rapidly advanced in the Hama Governorate, and captured dozens of towns and villages in the countryside, including, Halfaya, Morek, al-Lataminah, Kafr Zita, Qalaat al-Madiq, Kafr Nabudah, Karnaz, Lahaya, al-Buwaydah, Latmin, Sawran, al-Mughayyir, Maardis, Al-Suqaylabiyah, Mharda and Taybat al-Imam.[65] In Aleppo region, rebels reportedly took control of Aleppo airport after the local SDF troops opted to withdraw.[5] Pro-government forces reportedly began withdrawing from both the city of Hama and its airbase,[65] though this was denied by the Ministry of Defense.[66] At 7 PM (Local Syrian time, UTC+3:00) HTS forces started closing in on Hama,[67] capturing at least six villages.[68] Meanwhile, Israel reportedly fired artillery shells at government-held territories near the occupied Golan Heights,[69] and local gunmen from Talbiseh attacked SAA forces on the highway between Hama and Homs, injuring six.[70]

In the early hours of 1 December, pro-government forces established new military positions on the outskirts of Hama and its northern countryside. Reinforcements were deployed to Jabal Zayn al-Abidin and the towns of Taybat al Imam, Qamhana, and Khitab.[71] Russia launched airstrikes on towns captured by rebels in the Idlib and Hama regions, including Morek, Khan Sheikhoun, Kafranbel, Hazarin, and Tal Kawkabah.[72] In Idlib city, a Russian airstrike targeting a refugee camp killed nine civilians and injured 62 others. A separate Russian airstrike targeting Aleppo university hospital killed 8 civilians.[73] By the afternoon, SNA had captured the towns of as-Safirah, Khanasir, and the Kuweires airbase, while clashes occurred between SNA and SDF in the Sheikh Najjar district of Aleppo city. Concurrently HTS captured the thermal power plant, field artillery college, and the military academy on the outskirts of Aleppo.[74]

On the evening of 1 December, the Turkish-backed Syrian National Army (SNA) launched an offensive on the SDF-held town of Tell Rifaat, capturing the town along with several surrounding villages, including Shwargha, Menagh, Maranaz, Kafrnaya, Sheikh Issa, Deir Jamal, and Ain Daqna. The remaining SDF-controlled towns in the region were cut off from communication after being encircled by opposition forces.[75]

On 2 December, the SDF announced plans to evacuate Kurdish IDPs from Tel Rifaat and the Shahba region to SDF-held areas in Aleppo's Sheikh Maqsood district and northeastern Syria.[76][77] During the day, Russia launched airstrikes on the towns recently captured by the rebels, including as-Safirah, Khan Shaykhun, and Morek, while a separate Russian airstrike targeting Idlib city killed 11 civilians.[78][79] A rebel drone strike targeting a gathering of pro-government military leaders near Jabal Zayn al-Abidin, north of Hama, caused multiple deaths and injuries among their ranks.[80] By the afternoon, clashes between opposition and pro-government forces intensified in Hama Governorate, particularly near the towns of Karnaz and Suran. In the eastern Hama countryside, opposition forces made advances, capturing the town of Qasr Abu Samrah.[81] In the evening, the heaviest clashes since the start of the offensive took place between opposition and pro-government forces in northern Hama region, with Russian and government aircraft carrying out more than 45 airstrikes. Opposition forces took control of the villages of al-Jubain, Tell Malah, Jalamah, al-Jubain, Breidej, Karnaz and al-Karkat, while pro-government forces were able to thwart attempts to advance on Qalaat al-Madiq.[82][83] Opposition forces' rocket shelling of Hama city killed eight civilians.[84]

On 3 December, opposition forces continued their advance on the pro-government forces in Hama region, capturing the towns of Taybat al-Imam, Halfaya, Soran, and Maardis.[85] In the eastern Aleppo countryside, heavy clashes occurred between SNA and pro-government forces in Khanasir as the latter tried to recapture the town.[86] Fighting intensified in the evening between opposition and pro-government forces, as the rebels took control of more than 10 town of villages and reached the outskirts of Hama.[87] At least 17 SAA soldiers and 8 HTS fighters were killed in the clashes north of Hama. Two civilians were also killed by HTS shelling in the city.[88]

Reactions

  •  Syria: The Syrian Army described the offensive as "a huge and large-scale terrorist attack" in which "large numbers of terrorists using medium and heavy weapons" targeted villages, towns, and military sites.[44] On 30 November, the Syrian government announced a "temporary troop withdrawal" from Aleppo.[89] On 30 November, a pro-government commentator on Syrian state TV said that "reinforcements and Russia's assistance would repel the terrorist groups" and blamed Turkey for supporting the insurgents' push into Aleppo and Idlib provinces.[90] In a phone call with Iranian president Masoud Pezeshkian, President Bashar al-Assad said the offensive was aimed at "dividing the region and fragmenting the countries in it and redraw the map in line with the objectives of the United States and the West".[91]
  •  Syrian opposition: Hassan Abdelghani, spokesperson for the Syrian rebel coalition, stated that the targets of the operation are Assad's forces and Iranian militias, whom he accused of bringing "devastation, death, and killing to the region" while "exploiting Arab and Muslim populations" to push their "sabotaging plans" under "the guise of resistance".[36]
  • The Autonomous Administration of North and East Syria announced a general mobilization in response to rebel advances in Aleppo and released a statement condemning the resurgence of violence, which it blamed on the Syrian government and Turkish occupation.[92][93]
  •  Iran: Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi described the offensive as "a plot orchestrated by the U.S. and the Zionist regime following the regime's defeat in Lebanon and Palestine".[94]
  •  Turkey: The foreign ministry called for an end to the airstrikes on Idlib and demanded that "greater instability is avoided and civilians are not harmed".[95]
  •  Russia: Presidential spokesperson Dmitry Peskov called the offensive "a violation of Syria's sovereignty in this region".[94]

Analysis

Hezbollah, which was a major ally of the Syrian government during the civil war, was severely weakened during its war with Israel. The deaths of Hassan Nasrallah and much of its military leadership, combined with the redeployment of Hezbollah fighters in Syria back to Lebanon, left a large power vacuum. With the Russian military concentrating on its invasion of Ukraine and Iran under significant pressure, it provided an opportunity for rebel groups to launch an offensive.[36]

According to Nick Heras, an analyst with the New Lines Institute for Strategy and Policy, the rebels were trying to pre-empt a Syrian government offensive which was being shaped by Russian and Syrian airstrikes on rebel areas. The presence of Turkish-backed groups in the offensive is believed to be a warning from Turkey to Russia and the Syrian government to avoid any offensives in the region.[96]

See also

Notes

  1. ^ Since 30 November 2024
  2. ^ Arabic: ردع العدوان, romanized: Rade Aleudwan

References

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  73. ^ "Two massacres committed by Russian aircraft.. 49 people killed and martyred, including 17 from the regime forces" (in Arabic). SOHR. 1 December 2024. Retrieved 1 December 2024.
  74. ^ ""Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham" and "National Army" control the towns of Khanaser and Al-Safira, Kuweires Airport in the Aleppo countryside, and military sites on the outskirts of Aleppo" (in Arabic). SOHR. 1 December 2024. Retrieved 1 December 2024.
  75. ^ "More than 200,000 Syrians trapped in Operation "Dawn of Freedom"... Communications cut off in northern Aleppo countryside and fears of massacres against Kurdish citizens" (in Arabic). SOHR. 1 December 2024. Retrieved 1 December 2024.
  76. ^ "In harsh humanitarian conditions, tens of thousands of displaced people from Afrin and the people of the Shahba region gathered, waiting to be transferred to the Sheikh Maqsoud neighborhood" (in Arabic). SOHR. 2 December 2024. Retrieved 2 December 2024.
  77. ^ "Mazloum Abdi: Our efforts are continuing to secure a safe exit for the residents of Tal Rifaat and al-Shahba" (in Arabic). Rudaw. 2 December 2024. Retrieved 2 December 2024.
  78. ^ "Russian and Syrian warplanes launch intensive air strikes on Aleppo city and the countryside of Hama and Idlib" (in Arabic). SOHR. 2 December 2024. Retrieved 2 December 2024.
  79. ^ "Russian and Syrian warplanes commit a horrific massacre against civilians in Idlib and its countryside" (in Arabic). SOHR. 2 December 2024. Retrieved 2 December 2024.
  80. ^ "Hayat Tahrir al-Sham and factions target a gathering of military leaders from the regime forces north of Hama city" (in Arabic). SOHR. 2 December 2024. Retrieved 2 December 2024.
  81. ^ "After a violent attack by Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham and the factions.. Fierce battles in the northern and eastern countryside of Hama, coinciding with air strikes and intensive artillery shelling" (in Arabic). SOHR. 2 December 2024. Retrieved 2 December 2024.
  82. ^ "In the fiercest clashes since the launch of Operation "Deterrence of Aggression", regime forces, with heavy air support, thwart the organization's attempts to advance to strategic points in the northern Hama countryside". SOHR. 2 December 2024. p. Arabic. Retrieved 2 December 2024.
  83. ^ "After making progress in the eastern Hama countryside.. "Deterrence of Aggression" forces control a town and 5 villages in the northern Hama countryside and are trying to control the strategic Qalaat Al-Madiq". SOHR. 2 December 2024. p. Arabic. Retrieved 2 December 2024.
  84. ^ "8 citizens martyred in shelling on Hama city.. The number of martyrs from the shells of the Authority and the factions rises to 12 since the beginning of the "Deterrence of Aggression" operation" (in Arabic). SOHR. 2 December 2024. Retrieved 2 December 2024.
  85. ^ "After the fiercest clashes and intensive aerial bombardment, Hayat Tahrir al-Sham and the factions control more cities and towns in the Hama countryside" (in Arabic). SOHR. 3 December 2024. Retrieved 3 December 2024.
  86. ^ "Intensified fighting between pro-Turkish factions and regime forces in Khanaser town east of Aleppo" (in Arabic). SOHR. 3 December 2024. Retrieved 3 December 2024.
  87. ^ "As violent clashes continue for more than 24 hours in the Hama countryside, Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham is at the gates of Hama city and is trying to expand to cut off two main roads with Hama and impose a siege on the city". SOHR. 3 December 2024. p. Arabic. Retrieved 3 December 2024.
  88. ^ "Casualties under shelling by H*T*S on Hama | At least 24 members of regime forces and H*T*S kil*led in clashes near Hama". SOHR. 3 December 2024.
  89. ^ "Syrian army announces temporary withdrawal from Aleppo after rebel assault". Al Jazeera. Retrieved 30 November 2024.
  90. ^ "Syrian insurgents are inside Aleppo in a major setback for Assad as government forces regroup". CBS News. On a state TV morning show Saturday, commentators said army reinforcements and Russia's assistance will repel the "terrorist groups," blaming Turkey for supporting the insurgents' push into Aleppo and Idlib provinces.
  91. ^ "Syria's Assad says rebel advance a bid to 'redraw' regional map". France 24. 2 December 2024.
  92. ^ "SDF urges joining mobilization as Turkey-backed groups escalate attacks". www.rudaw.net. Retrieved 3 December 2024.
  93. ^ "Syrian Democratic Council: The Syrian crisis can only be resolved through a just political solution". ANF News. Retrieved 3 December 2024.
  94. ^ a b El Deeb, Sarah (29 November 2024). "In a shock offensive, insurgents breach Syria's largest city for the first time since 2016". The Washington Post. Retrieved 20 November 2024.
  95. ^ Michaelson, Ruth (29 November 2024). "Syrian rebels enter Aleppo three days into surprise offensive". The Guardian. ISSN 0261-3077. Retrieved 29 November 2024.
  96. ^ "Syrian insurgents cut off key road as 200 die in escalating violence". The Guardian. 28 November 2024. Retrieved 29 November 2024.
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