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2010 Arizona gubernatorial election

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For related races, see 2010 United States gubernatorial elections.

2010 Arizona gubernatorial election
← 2006 November 2, 2010 2014 →
Turnout55.65% Decrease4.82pp [1]
 
Nominee Jan Brewer Terry Goddard
Party Republican Democratic
Popular vote 938,934 733,935
Percentage 54.33% 42.43%
Brewer:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%      >90%
Goddard:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%      >90%
Tie:      40–50%      50%      No votes
Governor before election

Jan Brewer
Republican

Elected Governor

Jan Brewer
Republican

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The 2010 Arizona gubernatorial election was held on November 2, 2010, to elect the Governor of Arizona. Incumbent Republican Jan Brewer ran for a full term. Party primaries were held on August 24, 2010. Jan Brewer won a full term, defeating Arizona Attorney General and Democratic nominee Terry Goddard 54% to 42%.

Background

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Democratic Governor Janet Napolitano was term limited and nominated to become Secretary of Homeland Security by President-elect Barack Obama, and was confirmed by the United States Senate on January 20, 2009, resigning as governor the same day.[2] Since Arizona does not have a lieutenant governor, Republican Secretary of State Jan Brewer was first in the state's gubernatorial line of succession and was sworn in as governor upon Napolitano's resignation. Brewer announced on November 5, 2009, that she would seek a full term in 2010.[3]

Democratic primary

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Candidates

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Declared

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Declined

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Republican primary

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The primary to select the 2010 Republican nominee for governor of Arizona was held on August 24, 2010.[5][6]

Candidates

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Declared

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Withdrew

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Declined

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Polling

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Poll source Dates administered Jan Brewer (inc.) Dean Martin* Buz Mills*
Rasmussen Reports[12] June 16, 2010 72% 12% 16%
Rasmussen Reports[13] May 17, 2010 45% 18% 18%
Public Policy Polling[14] April 23–25, 2010 25% 15% 11%
58% 16% 19%
Rasmussen Reports[15] April 13, 2010 26% 12% 18%
Rasmussen Reports[15] March 15, 2010 20% 21% 19%
Rasmussen Reports[16] January 20, 2010 29% 27% —
Rasmussen Reports[17] November 18, 2009 10% 22% —
Public Policy Polling[18] September 21, 2009 39% 26% —
* Dropped out of race after entering to seek the nomination

Results

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Results by county:
  Brewer—80–90%
  Brewer—70–80%
Republican primary results[6]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Jan Brewer (Incumbent) 479,153 81.53
Republican Buz Mills* 51,001 8.68
Republican Dean Martin* 36,012 6.13
Republican Matthew Jette 19,611 3.34
Republican Write-in 1,906 0.32
Total votes 587,683 100
* Dropped out prior to primary, but still appeared on ballot

Libertarian primary

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Candidates

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  • Ronald Cavanaugh
  • Barry Hess
  • Bruce Olsen
  • Alvin Ray Yount

Results

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Libertarian primary results[6]
Party Candidate Votes %
Libertarian Barry Hess 1,303 43.38
Libertarian Bruce Olsen 612 20.37
Libertarian Ronald Cavanaugh 547 18.21
Libertarian Write-in 299 9.95
Libertarian Alvin Ray Yount 243 8.09
Total votes 3,004 100

General election

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Candidates

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  • Jan Brewer (R), incumbent governor
  • Terry Goddard (D), attorney general
  • Barry Hess (L)
  • Larry Gist (G)

Predictions

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Source Ranking As of
Cook Political Report[19] Likely R October 14, 2010
Rothenberg[20] Lean R October 28, 2010
RealClearPolitics[21] Lean R November 1, 2010
Sabato's Crystal Ball[22] Likely R October 28, 2010
CQ Politics[23] Lean R October 28, 2010

Polling

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Poll source Dates administered Terry Goddard (D) Jan Brewer (R)
Rasmussen Reports[24] October 28, 2010 39% 53%
Public Policy Polling[25] October 23–24, 2010 44% 52%
BRC Polls[26] October 11, 2010 35% 38%
Rasmussen Reports[24] October 3, 2010 39% 55%
Rasmussen Reports[27] September 7, 2010 38% 60%
Rasmussen Reports[28] August 25, 2010 38% 57%
Rasmussen Reports[29] July 21, 2010 37% 56%
Rasmussen Reports[30] June 29, 2010 35% 53%
Rasmussen Reports[31] May 17, 2010 39% 52%
Rasmussen Reports[32] April 27, 2010 40% 48%
Public Policy Polling[33] April 23–25, 2010 47% 44%
Rasmussen Reports[32] April 14, 2010 40% 44%
Rasmussen Reports[32] March 16, 2010 45% 43%
Rasmussen Reports[32] January 20, 2010 43% 42%
Rasmussen Reports[34] November 18, 2009 44% 42%
Rasmussen Reports[35] September 27, 2009 42% 40%
Public Policy Polling[36] September 7, 2009 46% 36%

Debate

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On September 1, the first and only debate was held between all four candidates and moderated by Ted Simons. The debate drew national attention after Jan Brewer "stumbled and stammered" through her opening statements. Before the debate the governor had made several comments about there being beheadings in the desert. During the debate Terry Goddard tried to get the governor to admit that it was a false statement. Goddard said quote Jan I'm going to give you an opportunity to admit that was a false statement but of course the governor Steered clear of the question. After the debate reporters were demanding answers, and still she would just not answer the question.[37] After the debate, Brewer stated that she would do no more debates.[38][39]

Results

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Arizona gubernatorial election, 2010[40]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Republican Janice Kay Brewer (inc.) 938,934 54.33% +18.89%
Democratic Samuel Pearson Goddard III 733,935 42.43% −20.11%
Libertarian Barry Hess 38,722 2.24% +0.27%
Green Larry Gist 16,128 0.93%
Write-ins 362 0.02%
Majority 204,999 11.86% −15.28%
Turnout 1,728,081
Republican hold Swing
By county
County[41] Jan Brewer
Republican 		Terry Goddard
Democratic 		Barry Hess
Libertarian 		Larry Gist
Green 		Write-in Margin Total
votes
# % # % # % # % # % # %
Apache 7,002 33.89 12,839 62.14 514 2.48 294 1.4 10 0.04 -5,837 -28.25 20,659
Cochise 24,974 62.32 13,954 34.82 742 1.85 398 0.99 2 0.00 11,020 27.50 40,070
Coconino 16,754 43.02 20,792 53.39 880 2.25 505 1.27 13 0.01 -4,038 -10.37 38,942
Gila 11,163 62.26 6,155 34.32 451 2.51 158 0.88 2 0.01 5,008 27.94 17,929
Graham 5,994 65.48 2,865 31.30 220 2.40 74 0.80 0 0.00 3,129 34.18 9,153
Greenlee 1,187 48.48 1,177 48.08 60 2.45 24 0.98 0 0.00 10 0.40 2,448
La Paz 3,048 67.31 1,330 29.37 80 1.76 70 1.54 0 0.00 1,718 37.94 4,528
Maricopa 543,045 54.78 415,142 41.88 24,077 2.42 8,600 0.86 280 0.02 127,903 12.90 991,144
Mohave 39,026 72.65 12,777 23.78 1,307 2.43 601 1.11 4 0.00 26,249 48.87 53,715
Navajo 16,157 54.49 12,517 42.22 648 2.18 317 1.06 7 0.02 3,640 12.27 29,646
Pima 148,916 47.18 158,337 50.17 648 0.20 317 0.10 16 0.00 -9,421 -2.99 315,589
Pinal 45,807 58.28 30,109 38.31 1922 2.44 735 0.93 18 0.02 15,698 19.97 78,591
Santa Cruz 3,190 31.76 6,608 65.81 138 1.37 105 1.04 0 0.00 -3,418 -34.05 10,041
Yavapai 53,081 65.21 25,569 31.41 1,830 2.24 900 1.10 8 0.00 27,512 33.80 81,388
Yuma 19,590 57.22 13,764 40.20 500 1.46 380 1.10 2 0.00 5,826 17.02 34,236
Totals 938,934 54.33 733,935 42.43 38,722 2.24 16,128 0.93 362 0.02 204,999 11.90 1,728,081

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

References

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  1. ^ "Voter Registration Statistics | Arizona Secretary of State". Retrieved May 7, 2023.
  2. ^ "Governor: Napolitano resigns". The Arizona Guardian. January 20, 2009. Archived from the original on July 21, 2011. Retrieved September 2, 2010.
  3. ^ Davenport, Paul (November 5, 2009). "Brewer running for full term as Ariz. governor". The Arizona Republic. Archived from the original on December 31, 2014. Retrieved February 18, 2010.
  4. ^ "Terry Goddard for Governor – Arizona". Terrygoddard.org. August 17, 2010. Retrieved August 21, 2010.
  5. ^ "Arizona Candidates List". Arizona SOS. August 3, 2010. Archived from the original on July 16, 2010. Retrieved August 3, 2010.
  6. ^ a b c "Arizona Gubernatorial Primary Results". Arizona SOS. August 24, 2010. Archived from the original on August 27, 2010. Retrieved August 27, 2010.
  7. ^ Jessica Taylor. "Martin drops challenge to Brewer". Politico.Com. Archived from the original on August 1, 2010. Retrieved August 21, 2010.
  8. ^ Jessica Taylor. "Mills drops campaign against Brewer". Politico.Com. Archived from the original on August 1, 2010. Retrieved August 21, 2010.
  9. ^ Hensley, JJ (May 3, 2010). "Joe Arpaio won't run for Arizona governor". The Arizona Republic. Archived from the original on May 6, 2010.
  10. ^ "Arizona Capitol Times " Blog Archive " Munger drops out of governor's race". Azcapitoltimes.com. Archived from the original on July 1, 2010. Retrieved August 21, 2010.
  11. ^ Benson, Matthew; Newton, Casey; Mary Jo Pitzl (October 11, 2009). "Political Insider: Symington won't run in '10". The Arizona Republic. Archived from the original on February 18, 2010.
  12. ^ Rasmussen Reports
  13. ^ Rasmussen Reports [permanent dead link]
  14. ^ Public Policy Polling
  15. ^ a b Rasmussen Reports
  16. ^ Rasmussen Reports
  17. ^ Rasmussen Reports
  18. ^ Public Policy Polling
  19. ^ "2010 Governors Race Ratings". Cook Political Report. Archived from the original on October 28, 2010. Retrieved October 28, 2010.
  20. ^ "Governor Ratings". Rothenberg Political Report. Retrieved October 28, 2010.
  21. ^ "2010 Governor Races". RealClearPolitics. Retrieved October 28, 2010.
  22. ^ "The Crystal Ball's Final Calls". Sabato's Crystal Ball. Retrieved October 28, 2010.
  23. ^ "Race Ratings Chart: Governor". CQ Politics. Archived from the original on October 5, 2010. Retrieved October 28, 2010.
  24. ^ a b Rasmussen Reports
  25. ^ Public Policy Polling
  26. ^ BRC Polls
  27. ^ Rasmussen Reports
  28. ^ Rasmussen Reports
  29. ^ Rasmussen Reports
  30. ^ Rasmussen Reports
  31. ^ Rasmussen Reports
  32. ^ a b c d Rasmussen Reports
  33. ^ Public Policy Polling
  34. ^ Rasmussen Reports
  35. ^ Rasmussen Reports
  36. ^ Public Policy Polling
  37. ^ "Arizona governor stumbles during debate". NBC News. Archived from the original on December 24, 2021.
  38. ^ "Category: DC". Talking Points Memo.
  39. ^ Services, Howard Fischer Capitol Media. "Brewer: No more debates – period". Arizona Daily Star.
  40. ^ "Archived copy" (PDF). Archived from the original (PDF) on September 20, 2013. Retrieved January 6, 2014.{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: archived copy as title (link)
  41. ^ "Archived copy" (PDF). Archived from the original (PDF) on September 20, 2013. Retrieved January 6, 2014.{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: archived copy as title (link)
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Debates

Official campaign sites

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