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2008 United States Senate election in Virginia

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2008 United States Senate election in Virginia
← 2002 November 4, 2008 2014 →
Turnout67.0% (voting eligible)[1]
 
Nominee Mark Warner Jim Gilmore
Party Democratic Republican
Popular vote 2,369,327 1,228,830
Percentage 65.03% 33.72%
Warner:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%      >90%
Gilmore:      40–50%      50–60%
U.S. senator before election

John Warner
Republican

Elected U.S. Senator

Mark Warner
Democratic

Elections in Virginia
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The 2008 United States Senate election in Virginia was held on November 4, 2008. Incumbent Republican Senator John Warner decided to retire instead of seeking a sixth term. Former Governor Mark Warner (unrelated) won the open seat by more than 31 percentage points. Warner became the first Democrat to win this seat since 1966. This was also the first time since 1964 that the state voted simultaneously for a Democratic presidential candidate and a Democratic Senate candidate, having voted for Barack Obama in the presidential election, albeit by a far lesser margin. This was Virginia's first open-seat election since 1988. Mark Warner's inauguration marked the first time since Harry Flood Byrd Jr. left the Democratic Party to become an independent in 1970 where Democrats held both of Virginia's Senate seats.

Warner's large margin of victory was reflected throughout the state — Gilmore won only six counties and independent cities (Augusta, Colonial Heights, Hanover, Poquoson, Powhatan and Rockingham) and his margin didn't exceed more than 2,000 votes in any of them. As of 2023, this is the last time Amelia County and Bland County voted Democratic. This is the last time that the winner of the United States Senate election in Virginia won a majority of Virginia's counties and independent cities.

Background

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John Warner, a former United States Under Secretary of the Navy, had served Virginia in the Senate since 1979, and had been cagey about whether he would be running for re-election. He would have been favored for a sixth term had he decided to run again, even with recent Democratic gains in the state. In early 2007, it was speculated that Warner, who turned 80 in February of that year, would retire. When Warner reported on April 12, 2007, that he had raised only $500 in campaign contributions during the first quarter, speculation increased that he may not seek a sixth term.[2]

On August 31, 2007, Warner formally announced that he would not be seeking re-election.[3] The race was expected to be competitive, given the Democrats' two successive gubernatorial victories (2001, 2005) and the unseating of Republican senator George Allen by Jim Webb in 2006.[4]

The Wall Street Journal reported a story of National Republican Senatorial Committee chairman Senator John Ensign outlining the 10 most competitive seats of the 2008 Senate election. When asked about the two GOP seats likely to switch parties, Virginia and New Mexico, on whether the NRSC was mulling walking away to work on other seats that could be won, Ensign said, "You don't waste money on races that don't need it or you can't win." This suggested that the NRSC may have started cutting money off.[5]

Republican nomination

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Candidates

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Withdrew

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Declined

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Republican convention results by congressional district
  Gilmore
  •   50–60%
  •   60–70%
  Marshall
  •   50–60%
  •   60–70%
  •   70–80%

On September 16, 2007, Republican Rep. Tom Davis of the 11th District unofficially announced that he would seek election to the seat.[6] The Washington Times reported that John Warner delayed his retirement announcement specifically to help Davis.[7]

On October 1, 2007, the editors of the National Review encouraged Virginia voters to draft General Peter Pace, the retiring Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, to run in 2008 for the Senate seat to be vacated by retiring Senator John Warner. The magazine cited Pace's conservative Catholic beliefs in making its suggestion.[8]

On October 13, the Republican Party of Virginia's State Central Committee voted 47–37 to hold a statewide convention rather than a primary. Former Virginia governor Jim Gilmore argued strongly for a convention, claiming it would save the candidates money. It reportedly costs $4 million to compete in a primary, while it costs only $1 million for a convention. Davis argued that a primary would expose the candidates to the kind of environment they would face in November. A primary was thought to favor Davis due to his popularity in voter-rich Northern Virginia. In contrast, a convention was thought to favor Gilmore because most of the delegates would come from the party's activist base, which is tilted heavily to the right. With the decision, Gilmore said he was seriously considering entering the race.[9]

Davis dropped out of the race on October 25, 2007, citing the potential difficulties of defeating Gilmore in the conservative-dominated GOP convention and in taking on Warner, who is very popular in Davis' own Northern Virginia base.[10] Gilmore confirmed his candidacy on November 19, 2007.[11]

On January 7, 2008, Delegate Bob Marshall (R-Prince William County), a sixteen-year state legislator from Northern Virginia known for his social conservative values, announced he would challenge Gilmore for the Republican nomination May 31, 2008.[12] The convention was held on May 31, 2008, where Gilmore won the nomination with 50.3% of the vote, just 66 votes more than Marshall.[13]

Republican Convention Vote[14]

Candidate 1st District 2nd District 3rd District 4th District 5th District 6th District 7th District 8th District 9th District 10th District 11th District Total
Jim Gilmore 491 613 121 319 667 531 1036 156 552 160 557 5223
Bob Marshall 643 345 75 383 420 507 582 145 335 585 1137 5157
Total 1134 958 196 702 1087 938 1618 301 887 745 1714 10380

Democratic nomination

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On September 12, 2007, former Governor Mark Warner (no relation to John Warner) announced his candidacy.[4][15] Mark Warner had challenged John Warner for his Senate seat in 1996, but was narrowly defeated. Mark Warner later won election in 2001 as Governor of Virginia, and left office with a high level of popularity in 2006. He was confirmed as the party nominee at the state convention on June 10, 2008, as he went unopposed.

General election

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Candidates

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  • Jim Gilmore, former Governor of Virginia (Republican)
  • Glenda Parker, retired United States Air Force officer and candidate for U.S. Senate in 2006 (Independent Greens)
  • Bill Redpath, national chair of the Libertarian Party (Libertarian)
  • Mark Warner, former Governor of Virginia (Democratic)

On March 29, 2008, the Libertarian Party of Virginia state convention nominated Bill Redpath as its Senate candidate.[16] Redpath, who was serving as national party chair at the time, cited the importance of running a Libertarian candidate for federal office this election year, considering the fact that the Independent Greens have been fielding candidates so actively in recent years. Glenda Gail Parker from Alexandria, a retired U.S. Air Force officer, ran again for the Independent Greens as she did in the 2006 Senate election.[17]

Campaign

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Former Gov. Mark Warner (D) campaigns at the Dixie Theatre in Staunton, Virginia
Republican Senator John Warner chose to retire after five terms.
Former Gov. Jim Gilmore (R)

After the conclusions of the state conventions, Democrat Mark Warner had emerged as the front-runner for the Class 2 Senate seat from Virginia. Some early polling showed Mark Warner leading Jim Gilmore by as much as 2–1.

Pundits and analysists believed Virginia to be the single strongest pickup opportunity for the Democrats due to Warner's consistent lead in the polls.

Jim Gilmore responded aggressively, mostly with ads on the Internet; his campaign had very little money. Gilmore attacked Warner for raising taxes during his term as governor, when he had pledged not to do so,[18] flip-flopping[19] among many other topics.

On October 6, 2008, Mark Warner and Jim Gilmore debated various issues, including the Emergency Economic Stabilization Act of 2008, the Iraq War and Judicial nominees. The Richmond Times Dispatch sponsored the debate held at the Taubman Museum of Art, Roanoke, Virginia.[20]

Mark Warner argued he'd be part of a radical centrist coalition, no matter who won the presidency. He claimed the coalition would improve cooperation in the Congress and its subsequent public perception. Warner spoke of alternative energy, and Gilmore argued for offshore drilling.[21] The issue of the 2004 tax increase under then-Governor Mark Warner was raised at the first debate of the campaign between Gilmore and Warner.[22]

The Washington Post reported on July 24, 2008, that Jim Gilmore "submitted false information on two financial disclosure forms that hid his ties to a government contractor embroiled in a legal dispute over allegations that two of its executives had conspired to defraud the federal government." The Gilmore campaign responded by saying, the controversy was due to a "clerical error."[23]

On election night, Warner was declared the winner based on exit polls alone, before the votes were counted.

Fundraising

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Money played a large role in the campaign. By July, Mark Warner had raised $9 million, while Jim Gilmore had raised $1.2 million.[24] This does not include money from the DSCC or NRSC.

Endorsements

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Mark Warner

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Jim Gilmore

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Predictions

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Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[31] Likely D (flip) October 23, 2008
CQ Politics[32] Safe D (flip) October 31, 2008
Rothenberg Political Report[33] Likely D (flip) November 2, 2008
Real Clear Politics[34] Safe D (flip) November 1, 2008

Polling

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Source Date Jim
Gilmore (R) 		Mark
Warner (D)
Rasmussen Reports[35] September 5, 2007 34% 54%
Survey USA[36] September 17, 2007 32% 60%
Newport University[37] October 1, 2007 27% 51%
Washington Post[38] October 12, 2007 31% 61%
Rasmussen Reports[39] October 24, 2007 37% 53%
SurveyUSA[40] November 5, 2007 35% 57%
Rasmussen Reports[41] January 3, 2008 38% 53%
Rasmussen Reports[42] February 19, 2008 37% 57%
Rasmussen Reports[43] March 26, 2008 39% 55%
Rasmussen Reports[44] May 8, 2008 37% 55%
Rasmussen Reports[45] June 12, 2008 33% 60%
PPP(D)[46] June 14, 2008 28% 59%
Rasmussen Reports[45] July 16, 2008 36% 59%
Rasmussen Reports[47] August 12, 2008 35% 61%
Public Policy Polling[48] August 22, 2008 32% 55%
Survey USA[49] September 7, 2008 35% 56%
Survey USA[50] September 12, 2008 34% 57%
Public Policy Polling[51] September 13, 2008 33% 57%
Newport University[52] September 17, 2008 30% 54%
Survey USA[53] September 21, 2008 34% 57%
Rasmussen Reports[47] September 25, 2008 34% 60%
Rasmussen Reports[47] October 16, 2008 36% 61%
Survey USA[54] October 18, 2008 36% 60%
Survey USA[55] October 26, 2008 32% 63%
Survey USA[56] November 1, 2008 35% 59%
Public Policy Polling[57] November 2, 2008 36% 62%

Results

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2008 United States Senate election in Virginia[58]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Democratic Mark Warner 2,369,327 65.03% +65.03%
Republican Jim Gilmore 1,228,830 33.72% −48.85%
Independent Greens Glenda Parker 21,690 0.60% +0.60%
Libertarian Bill Redpath 20,269 0.56% +0.56%
Write-in 3,178 0.09% -0.47%
Total votes 3,643,294 100.00% N/A
Democratic gain from Republican

Counties and Independent Cities that flipped from Republican to Democratic

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See also

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References

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  1. ^ Dr. Michael McDonald (March 31, 2012). "2008 General Election Turnout Rates". George Mason University. Archived from the original on January 12, 2013. Retrieved March 4, 2013.
  2. ^ Tim Craig (April 13, 2007). "Warner's Fundraising Prompts Speculation on Reelection Plans". The Washington Post. p. B01.
  3. ^ "Sen. Warner won't seek sixth term". Associated Press via NBC News. August 31, 2007.
  4. ^ a b Tim Craig and Amy Gardner (September 13, 2007). "Former Va. Gov. Warner Set to Seek Senate Seat". The Washington Post. p. A01.
  5. ^ "Sen. Ensign Says GOP Majority Would Be 'Fairly Miraculous'". The Wall Street Journal. June 12, 2008.
  6. ^ Bill Turque (September 15, 2007). "Would-Be Candidate Is Taking His Time". The Washington Post. p. B01.
  7. ^ McLaughlin, Seth (June 25, 2007). "Mum Warner likely to move on". The Washington Times. Retrieved June 25, 2007.
  8. ^ "Draft General Pace". National Review. October 1, 2007. Archived from the original on October 13, 2007. Retrieved October 2, 2007.
  9. ^ Craig, Tim; Agiesta, Jennifer (October 13, 2007). "Republicans Opt for Convention to Choose Nominee - washingtonpost.com". The Washington Post. Retrieved May 27, 2010.
  10. ^ "Davis Out Of Senate Race, Offers Lukewarm Endorsement To Gilmore". CBS News. October 25, 2007.
  11. ^ Craig, Tim (November 19, 2007). "Gilmore Enters Senate Race". The Washington Post. Retrieved November 19, 2007.
  12. ^ Craig, Tim. Marshall to Challenge Gilmore For Republican Nomination. The Washington Post. January 8, 2008.
  13. ^ Lewis, Bob (May 31, 2008). "Gilmore wins Va. GOP Senate nomination". WTOP-FM. Retrieved May 31, 2008.
  14. ^ Wordpress.com (June 1, 2008). "The 2008 Virginia Republican Party Convention".
  15. ^ MarkWarner08 (September 12, 2007). "Mark Warner: Join our effort". Archived from the original on December 13, 2021. Retrieved May 1, 2018 – via YouTube.{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: numeric names: authors list (link)
  16. ^ "LPVA - Libertarian Party of Virginia". www.lpva.com. Archived from the original on January 28, 2021. Retrieved May 1, 2018.
  17. ^ "IGVA News". votejoinrun.us. Retrieved May 1, 2018.
  18. ^ Jim Gilmore for Senate (July 17, 2008). "Youtube- Mark Warner's "No Tax Pledge" of 2001".
  19. ^ Jim Gilmore for President (July 17, 2008). "Sabato: Which is the real Mark Warner?".
  20. ^ Richmond Times Dispatch (October 6, 2008). "Warner, Gilmore spill over bailout".[permanent dead link‍]
  21. ^ "The Daily News Record: Top News". Archived from the original on March 8, 2009. Retrieved May 1, 2018.
  22. ^ Holmes, Matt (July 19, 2008). "Gilmore, Warner Square Off In First Senate Debate". WCAV. Archived from the original on July 22, 2012. Retrieved July 25, 2008.
  23. ^ Craig, Tim (July 24, 2008). "Gilmore Filed False Information On Campaign Disclosure Forms". The Washington Post. Retrieved July 25, 2008.
  24. ^ Emerling, Gary (July 18, 2008). "Warner, Gilmore ready to debate". The Washington Times. Retrieved July 26, 2008.
  25. ^ "Topic Galleries - dailypress.com". Retrieved May 1, 2018.[permanent dead link‍]
  26. ^ "Warner for Senate". Archived from the original on May 22, 2011. Retrieved May 1, 2018.
  27. ^ "Vote Warner for Senate - Martinsville Bulletin". Archived from the original on February 16, 2012. Retrieved May 1, 2018.
  28. ^ "Mark Warner for U.S. Senate - Roanoke.com". Archived from the original on March 20, 2012. Retrieved May 1, 2018.
  29. ^ Virginian-Pilot, The. "Mark Warner for U.S. Senate". Archived from the original on February 29, 2012. Retrieved May 1, 2018.
  30. ^ "Mark Warner for Senate". The Washington Post. October 12, 2008. Retrieved May 27, 2010.
  31. ^ "2008 Senate Race ratings for October 23, 2008". The Cook Political Report. Retrieved April 1, 2021.
  32. ^ Race Ratings Chart: Senate Archived October 28, 2010, at the Wayback Machine CQ Politics
  33. ^ "2008 Senate ratings". Inside Elections. Retrieved April 1, 2021.
  34. ^ "2008 RCP Averages & Senate Results". Real Clear Politics. Retrieved August 31, 2021.
  35. ^ Rasmussen Reports
  36. ^ Survey USA
  37. ^ Newport University
  38. ^ Washington Post
  39. ^ Rasmussen Reports
  40. ^ SurveyUSA [permanent dead link‍]
  41. ^ Rasmussen Reports
  42. ^ Rasmussen Reports
  43. ^ Rasmussen Reports
  44. ^ Rasmussen Reports
  45. ^ a b Rasmussen Reports
  46. ^ PPP(D)
  47. ^ a b c Rasmussen Reports
  48. ^ Public Policy Polling
  49. ^ Survey USA
  50. ^ Survey USA
  51. ^ Public Policy Polling
  52. ^ Newport University Archived September 18, 2008, at the Wayback Machine
  53. ^ Survey USA
  54. ^ Survey USA
  55. ^ Survey USA
  56. ^ Survey USA
  57. ^ Public Policy Polling
  58. ^ "2008 Election Statistics". clerk.house.gov. Retrieved May 1, 2018.
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General

Official campaign websites (Archived)

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