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2008 United States Senate election in Alaska

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2008 United States Senate election in Alaska
← 2002 November 4, 2008 2014 →
 
Nominee Mark Begich Ted Stevens
Party Democratic Republican
Popular vote 151,767 147,814
Percentage 47.77% 46.52%
Borough and census area results
Begich:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%
Stevens:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%
U.S. senator before election

Ted Stevens
Republican

Elected U.S. Senator

Mark Begich
Democratic

Elections in Alaska
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The 2008 United States Senate election in Alaska was held on November 4, 2008. Incumbent Republican U.S. Senator and former President pro tempore Ted Stevens ran for re-election for an eighth term (a seventh full term) in the United States Senate. It was one of the ten Senate races that U.S. Senator John Ensign of Nevada, the chairman of the National Republican Senatorial Committee, predicted as being most competitive.[1] The primaries were held on August 26, 2008.[2] Stevens was challenged by Democratic candidate Mark Begich, the mayor of Anchorage and son of former U.S. Representative Nick Begich.

On October 27, 2008, Stevens was convicted on seven charges of ethics violations and corruption.[3][4] If re-elected, Stevens would have been the first convicted felon to be elected to the United States Senate.[5] On November 18, 2008, the Associated Press called the race for Begich, making Stevens the longest-serving U.S. Senator ever to lose a re-election bid.[6] Surpassing Warren Magnuson's record, they served for over 36 years before he lost his seat to Slade Gorton in 1980, 28 years prior. Stevens conceded the race to Begich on November 19.

Begich was the only Democrat in 2008 to flip a Senate seat in a state that Barack Obama lost (to John McCain) in the concurrent presidential election. With a margin of 1.3%, this election was the second-closest race of the 2008 Senate election cycle, behind only the election in Minnesota. This was the only time since 1974 that Democrats won an Alaska U.S. Senate Election.[7] Democrats did not win another statewide election in Alaska until the August 2022 special election where Mary Peltola was elected to the U.S. House of Representatives.

Stevens's conviction was set aside in April 2009, and the U.S. attorney general dropped all charges against him, citing serious prosecutorial misconduct during the trial. On August 9, 2010, Stevens died in a plane crash.[8][9]

Democratic–Libertarian–Independence primary

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The ADL ballot contained all of the primary candidates for the Alaska Democratic Party, the Alaskan Independence Party, and the Libertarian Party of Alaska.

Candidates

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Alaskan Independence

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Democratic

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Libertarian

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Results

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Democratic–Libertarian–Independence primary results[14]
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Mark Begich 63,747 84.12%
Democratic Ray Metcalfe 5,480 7.23%
Independence Bob Bird 4,216 5.56%
Libertarian Fredrick Haase 1,375 1.81%
Democratic Frank Vondersaar 965 1.27%
Total votes 75,783 100.00%

Republican primary

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Candidates

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Campaign

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With three and a half weeks to go before the primary, Stevens still held a large polling lead over chief rival Dave Cuddy, 59% to 19%.[16] Political newcomer Vic Vickers said on July 28 that he expected to pour $750,000 of his own money into his bid to defeat Stevens.[17] According to Rasmussen polling of Alaskans, Cuddy "does nearly as well against Begich" as Stevens, trailing Begich 50% to 35%, while Vickers trailed the expected Democratic nominee 55% to 22%.[18]

Results

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In the Republican primary on August 26, results from 70.5% of precincts showed Stevens winning with 63% of the vote; Cuddy had 28% and Vickers had 6%.[19]

Republican primary results[14]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Ted Stevens (incumbent) 66,900 63.52%
Republican David Cuddy 28,364 26.93%
Republican Vic Vickers 6,102 5.79%
Republican Michael Corey 1,496 1.42%
Republican Roderic Sikma 1,133 1.08%
Republican Rich Wanda 732 0.69%
Republican Gerald Heikes 599 0.57%
Total votes 105,326 100.00%

General election

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Candidates

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Major

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  • Mark Begich (D), Mayor of Anchorage
  • Ted Stevens (R), incumbent U.S. Senator since 1968

Minor

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  • Bob Bird (AI)
  • Fredrick "David" Haase (L)
  • Ted Gianoutsos (I)

Campaign

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The FBI investigation and subsequent seven-count indictment of Ted Stevens, as well as the investigation of the state's only Representative, Don Young (R), generated some negative feelings in Alaska towards Republicans, even among Republican primary voters. Anchorage Mayor Mark Begich (son of the last Democratic Rep. from Alaska, Nick Begich) was courted by both the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee and the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee. In February 2008, he announced the formation of an exploratory committee for the Senate seat. The possible Democratic field also included former Governor Tony Knowles, State Rep. Eric Croft and State Senators Hollis French and Johnny Ellis.[20] Former Minority Leader of the Alaska House of Representatives Ethan Berkowitz was considered a possible candidate, but he decided to challenge Don Young instead. Sensing discontentment within the GOP, conservative Republican Dave Cuddy announced his candidacy for U.S. Senate in December 2007.

Stevens was perceived by many as corrupt, but was also highly regarded by many Alaskans for his ability to steer federal funding toward the state; he was the longest-serving Republican in the Senate entering 2008 (first elected in 1968), and through his seniority, he amassed a great deal of influence there. The selection of Alaskan Governor Sarah Palin as the vice-presidential running-mate of Republican presidential candidate John McCain in late August 2008 coincided with a substantial improvement in Stevens' performance in opinion polls. A poll in August showed Begich with a 17% lead, but in early September a poll from the same source showed Begich leading Stevens by only 3%. Begich's campaign and some observers attributed this change to Palin's popularity and the enthusiasm stimulated by her selection,[21] although Palin's reputation was partially based on her perceived opposition to Stevens or distance from him.

The Stevens campaign disputed the low numbers shown in the August poll and said that the numbers had improved in September because Stevens had begun heavily campaigning. His campaign also presented the relationship between Palin and Stevens as positive, contrary to some portrayals.[22] Stevens was convicted of seven felony counts of failing to report gifts on October 27, 2008. This was considered a serious setback in his already difficult bid for re-election; he had requested and received a quick trial in hopes of winning an acquittal before election day.[23] After the verdict, Stevens maintained his innocence and said that he was still running for re-election.[24]

Predictions

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Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[25] Lean D (flip) October 23, 2008
CQ Politics[26] Lean D (flip) October 31, 2008
Rothenberg Political Report[27] Lean D (flip) November 2, 2008
Real Clear Politics[28] Lean D (flip) October 30, 2008

Polling

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Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Mark
Begich (D) 		Ted
Stevens (R)
Research 2000[29] December 3–6, 2007 47% 41%
Rasmussen Reports[30] April 7, 2008 45% 46%
DSCC[31] May 6–10, 2008 51% 44%
Research 2000[32] May 12–14, 2008 48% 43%
Rasmussen Reports[30] May 14, 2008 47% 45%
Rasmussen Reports[30] June 16, 2008 44% 46%
Research 2000[33] July 14–16, 2008 47% 45%
Rasmussen Reports[34] July 17, 2008 52% 44%
Rasmussen Reports[35] July 30, 2008 50% 37%
Ivan Moore Research[36] July 31, 2008 56% 35%
Ivan Moore Research[37] August 30 – September 2, 2008 49% 46%
Rasmussen Reports[35] September 9, 2008 48% 46%
Research 2000[33] September 15–17, 2008 50% 44%
Rasmussen Reports[35] October 6, 2008 48% 49%
Research 2000[38] October 14–16, 2008 48% 46%
Rasmussen Reports[35] October 28, 2008 52% 44%
Research 2000[39] October 28–30, 2008 58% 36%

Results

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Begich won the election by 3,953 votes. Incumbent Stevens had held a lead of over 3,000 votes after election night, but a tally of nearly 60,000 absentee and mail-in ballots released on November 12 erased that lead and reduced the vote margin separating the candidates to less than 0.5%,[40] with further counting, released on November 18, increasing the margin to more than 1% in favor of Begich. On November 19, 2008, Stevens conceded to Begich.[41]

2008 United States Senate election in Alaska[42]
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Mark Begich 151,767 47.77%
Republican Ted Stevens (incumbent) 147,814 46.52%
Independence Bob Bird 13,197 4.15%
Libertarian Fredrick Haase 2,483 0.78%
Independent Ted Gianoutsos 1,385 0.44%
Write-in 1,077 0.34%
Total votes 317,723 100.00%
Democratic gain from Republican

Boroughs and census areas that flipped from Republican to Democratic

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See also

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References

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  1. ^ Kate Phillips, G.O.P. Leader Maps Senate Elections The New York Times, June 13, 2008
  2. ^ 2008 Primary Election Information Archived August 5, 2008, at the Wayback Machine Division of Elections from the Alaska Secretary of State
  3. ^ Alaska Senator Found Guilty of Lying About Gifts, New York Times, October 27, 2008
  4. ^ "Alaska Sen. Ted Stevens found guilty of lying about gifts from contractor". Los Angeles Times. October 27, 2008. Archived from the original on October 28, 2008. Retrieved October 27, 2008.
  5. ^ Yardley, William. "Senator Stevens hanging by a thread in Alaska." The New York Times, November 5, 2008. Retrieved on November 5, 2008
  6. ^ "Stevens loses Alaska Senate seat to Democrat". NBC News. Associated Press. November 18, 2008. Retrieved November 18, 2008.
  7. ^ Rakich, Nathaniel (September 1, 2022). "What Democrats' Win In Alaska Tells Us About November". FiveThirtyEight. Retrieved September 1, 2022.
  8. ^ Clymer, Adam (August 10, 2010). "Ted Stevens, Longtime Alaska Senator, Dies at 86". The New York Times. Retrieved June 12, 2023.
  9. ^ Kahn, HUMA (August 10, 2010). "Ted Stevens, Longest-Serving Republican Senator, Dies in Plane Crash". ABC News. Retrieved June 12, 2023.
  10. ^ Aaron Blake (February 27, 2008). "Begich's entry tees up first tough reelection race in Stevens's career". The Hill. Retrieved July 18, 2016.
  11. ^ "Founder of Republican Moderate Party of Alaska Will Run as a Democrat for US Senate". Ballot Access News. December 3, 2007. Retrieved July 18, 2016.
  12. ^ Fredrick "David" Haase - Libertarian[permanent dead link]. The Anchorage Daily News. August 19, 2008.
  13. ^ DavidforAlaska.com Archived September 8, 2008, at the Wayback Machine.
  14. ^ a b "Official Primary Election Results" (PDF). State of Alaska: Division of Elections. September 18, 2008. Archived from the original (PDF) on November 27, 2008. Retrieved December 3, 2008.
  15. ^ Anchorage developer plans to challenge Stevens for Senate seat Fairbanks Daily News-Miner December 22, 2007. Retrieved December 26, 2007. [dead link]
  16. ^ "Stevens Sinks in Alaska Senate Race". Political Wire. August 2, 2008. Archived from the original on August 6, 2008. Retrieved August 4, 2008.
  17. ^ "Newcomer candidate says he can beat Stevens". Anchorage Daily News. July 29, 2008. Archived from the original on July 16, 2012. Retrieved August 4, 2008.
  18. ^ "50% still regard Stevens favorably and don't want him to resign". Alaska Daily News. July 31, 2008. Archived from the original on August 30, 2008. Retrieved August 4, 2008.
  19. ^ Michael O'Brien (August 27, 2008). "Stevens wins primary, Young locked in a nail biter". The Hill. Retrieved July 18, 2016.
  20. ^ Nichols, John (July 30, 2007). "Ted Stevens -- and Senate GOP -- In Trouble". The Nation. Archived from the original on July 8, 2008. Retrieved March 17, 2014.
  21. ^ Robbins, Liz (November 6, 2008). "Alaska Wilderness (Poll Edition)". The Caucus. Retrieved June 3, 2024.
  22. ^ Josh Kraushaar (September 10, 2008). "Palin popularity buoys Stevens". Politico. Retrieved July 18, 2016.
  23. ^ John Bresnahan (October 27, 2008). "Jury: Stevens guilty on seven counts". Politico. Retrieved July 18, 2016.
  24. ^ Glenn Thrush and Daniel W. Reilly (October 27, 2008). "Stevens vows to remain a candidate". Politico. Retrieved July 18, 2016.
  25. ^ "2008 Senate Race ratings for October 23, 2008". The Cook Political Report. Retrieved April 1, 2021.
  26. ^ Race Ratings Chart: Senate Archived October 31, 2008, at the Wayback Machine CQ Politics
  27. ^ "2008 Senate ratings". Inside Elections. Retrieved April 1, 2021.
  28. ^ "2008 RCP Averages & Senate Results". Real Clear Politics. Retrieved August 31, 2021.
  29. ^ Research 2000
  30. ^ a b c Rasmussen Reports
  31. ^ DSCC
  32. ^ Research 2000
  33. ^ a b Research 2000
  34. ^ Rasmussen Reports
  35. ^ a b c d Rasmussen Reports
  36. ^ Ivan Moore Research
  37. ^ Ivan Moore Research
  38. ^ Research 2000
  39. ^ Research 2000
  40. ^ Cockerham, Sean (November 13, 2008). "Begich takes lead in latest vote count". Anchorage Daily News. Archived from the original on November 29, 2008. Retrieved November 13, 2008.
  41. ^ Stevens concedes; Begich savors first day of senate elect status Alaska Public Radio Network. Retrieved on November 19, 2008.
  42. ^ Clerk of the U.S. House of Representatives. "Statistics of the Presidential and Congressional Election of November 4, 2008" (PDF). p. 2.
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Official campaign websites

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