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Surge Lower than Predicted at Landfall?

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Do we know exact numbers for the surge like at Gilchrist / Rollover Bay? When the storm was making landfall, several gauges broke. I'm thinking that they, instead of Galveston, got a monster surge. 68.13.238.221 (talk) 03:58, 16 September 2008 (UTC)[reply]

  • 16-Sep-2008: I was thinking the same high surge, and I have added the high tide at 4:14am:
"However, Bolivar Peninsula, at the entrance to Galveston Bay, was nearer to the eastern side of the eye."
"The morning high tide (on 2008-09-13), adding 2.3 ft (0.7 m), occurred at 4:14am CDT at the Galveston Bay entrance. The total eastern storm tide was then nearly 16 ft (4.9 m) by landfall at 2:10am, with higher waves on top."
Based on the 2005 Katrina storm surges being highest at the eastern eye, I also believe that Gilchrist had a surge higher than 13.5 ft. The trouble with hurricane data is: "if it ain't measured, it didn't happen" and the true storm surge might never be known.
With Katrina, the New-Orleans side had storm surges of 14 ft, while east of the eye, Bay St. Louis had a 27-ft surge, but inside flooding was measured at 32 feet above sea level (some people thought Katrina shore waves were 35-40 ft). Also, surge gauges broke, and a buoy broke after a wave 55 ft high. For Ike, an eyewitness said "one wave" pushed an entire house over, so it's not just storm tide, but an unlucky big wave that can gut buildings. It's sort of like: when a hurricane weakens a massive tree limb which falls off 2 years later, or when a roof came off 200 miles away, radar noted a "rotation signature" (but not a "measured" tornado, just an unlucky roof), so true impact is only known years later, if ever.
I will rename that section "Questionable surge measurements". -Wikid77 (talk) 08:58, 16 September 2008 (UTC)[reply]
  • I just checked, and I see that Sabine Pass is 69 miles (112 km) away from Galveston (landfall), an unlikely distance to be considered the highest storm surge location (if it could be really measured). So, yes, the data is "QUESTIONABLE" as to being the highest surge in the region. I will add that to the article. -Wikid77 (talk) 10:21, 16 September 2008 (UTC)[reply]
Check the satellite photos for High Island after the storm (see discussion in talk:2008 Atlantic hurricane season, the debris line on the West (leeward) side of the Island indicates approximately the height of the surge. The debris is well up the side of the salt dome, the town being 33 ft above sea level. Anyone with a car and a hand-held GPS with WAIS correction can determine the elevation. There were surge sensors placed in Rollover pass that are part of an ongoing experiment by the USGS, to be published at some later time. Based on water flow they may be able to guess the height of the surge. My guess based upon relative damage is that the surge was between 20 and 22 feet at Rollover pass (discounting the lunar-solar component, 18 to 20 feet). Although one has to remember that Rollover pass is the thinnest part of the peninsula, that points East offered higher resistance to water because of Terrain, the approach of the storm sent water from East to West which means initially water from other regions finds a path of least resistance at Rollover pass into Galveston bay. As the storm finally approaches the current is from the south-southeast, looking at the photos of the island, the beach is stripped down to a soft clay/packed sediment base, and without the the peninsula would probably become a temporary island. Roads running to the south of 87 were stripped up leaving channels that proceed almost to 87. This indicates very swift water motion through the region of the pass. Again thickness of the region is a factor in the swiftness of water.PB666 yap 23:58, 29 September 2008 (UTC)[reply]
One needs to avoid this rational of Galveston was spared, Bolivar peninsula is part of Galveston county, it is however not on Galveston Island (incorrect photo legend on main) and it was not spared the storm surge. There, the storm or surge was less than anticipated as the storm wobbled to the Eastnortheast at landfall. Ike had alot of kinetic energy stored within dynamic water processes the most powerful of which came on shore in Galveston, Chambers and points eastward past New Iberia Louisiana. This indicates a wide area of elevated sea-current anomalies associated with this storms complex structure. This is not a typical hurricane, although similar hurricanes have been documented, the eye was broad, multiple eyewalls existed at various times. This is going to be hurricane that is studied for years into the future. IOW don't concretize the information now to be consistent with emotional media reports, use ranges for surges rather than finite values.PB666 yap 23:58, 29 September 2008 (UTC)[reply]

Renamed as Questionable surge measurements

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16-Sep-2008: There seem to be conflicts between storm surge levels and elevated houses washed away at 19-feet above sea level. Perhaps destruction was a combination of water-weakened or defective pilings/stilts, pushed by some 25-foot waves (or higher), but I am renaming the section to leave the matter open (as more NPOV neutral):

  • "Questionable surge measurements" was "Surge Lower than Predicted"

Similar problems happened in Katrina, when buildings utilized to measure storm-surge levels were damaged, leading to a policy of "oops, need to get bigger surge-measurement buildings" and such. Hopefully, "Questionable" will keep the topic more open for long-term updates. -Wikid77 (talk) 08:58, 16 September 2008 (UTC)[reply]

Texas City Dike

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ImprobableSage added a mention in 3 articles of the destruction of the Texas City Dike. An anonymous poster reversed two of these. I looked at the video shown on the USA Today site, undid the reversion, and because at the time I couldn't find a reliable link to it on the USA Today site, I linked instead to the same video on YouTube. It is watermarked USA Today. Another anonymous poster has now marked my reference [unreliable source?]. Here is a link to the same video on two genuine USA Today sites:

http://usatoday.feedroom.com/?fr_story=d6f29bbf75bdd914e09eb64957e89fca2ed4d0ce&rf=sitemap

http://www.usatoday.com/news/nation/2008-09-12-ike-video_N.htm

--PeterR (talk) 21:32, 18 September 2008 (UTC)[reply]

On the other hand the Weather Blog, with aerial photo of landward end of dike says: "The dike protected the city, although it did sustain some damage." --PeterR (talk) 21:39, 18 September 2008 (UTC)[reply]

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This may prove useful:

Do with it what you will. davidwr/(talk)/(contribs)/(e-mail) 12:47, 21 September 2008 (UTC)[reply]

Oct. 25 updated storm surge maps and Nov. 3 info

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Do with these what you will:

davidwr/(talk)/(contribs)/(e-mail) 14:57, 5 November 2008 (UTC)[reply]

A new news reference

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Excerpt: "The report, based on inspections of 774,000 of the county’s 994,000 residential units from Sept. 23 through Nov. 13, is the most comprehensive assessment to date of the destruction caused by Ike, although it’s limited to residential damage in Harris County."

If you care to do so, add its information to this article. davidwr/(talk)/(contribs)/(e-mail) 14:46, 14 January 2009 (UTC)[reply]

No mention of Bolivar Peninsula

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Bolivar Peninsula was leveled by Hurricane Ike, and its mention has been missed. - Sidelight12 Talk 06:42, 12 June 2013 (UTC)[reply]

Ok, it was there. Some idiot vandalized the page. I undid this !@#%@#$%^. - Sidelight12 Talk 08:41, 12 June 2013 (UTC)[reply]

Coding help for dead citation

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this article has a citation that is dead. How do I indicate with the following code that already has "| date=2008-09-13 | accessdate=2008-09-16" ?66.74.176.59 (talk) 02:35, 23 November 2014 (UTC)[reply]

The best thing to do in cases like that, where it is possible, is to see if a copy of that page is archived at the Internet Archive or WebCite. The former can be checked at archive.org/web. I did that for one of the links in the article here, and found there was an archive of it, for example, at the link [1]. In a cite web template, you would leave date and url as they are now, add an archiveurl=https://web.archive.org/web/20090527095640/http://www.click2houston.com/news/17485445/detail.html and an archivedate=2009-05-27, and optionally note that the primary link is dead by adding deadurl=yes. You can see some examples of how this works at Template:Cite_web in the Examples section, look below the header labelled "Using "archiveurl" and "archivedate" (and optionally "deadurl") for webpages that have been archived", and see if that explains it. Let me know if I can explain further... --j⚛e deckertalk 04:25, 23 November 2014 (UTC)[reply]
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Move discussion in progress

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