Opinion polling for the 2010 United Kingdom general election
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In the run-up to the general election of 2010, several polling organisations carried out opinion polling in regards to voting intention in Great Britain (i.e. the UK excluding Northern Ireland, which is usually excluded from such voting intention surveys). Results of such polls are displayed below.
The election took place on 6 May 2010, coinciding with the local elections. The previous general election was held on 5 May 2005.
Tony Blair stood down as prime minister after 10 years in June 2007, and was succeeded by chancellor Gordon Brown. That autumn, the national media reported that an imminent general election was likely, putting all polling organisations, the press and political parties on an election footing, but Brown eventually announced that he would not seek a dissolution. According to many media and political figures, this was because he believed that Labour was likely to lose its majority in a snap general election, even though many opinion polls suggested that a fourth successive election win for Labour was likely, and this would potentially have ensured the Labour government's survival to the end of 2012. Brown has since claimed that Labour would have won but he did not believe an early election was in the national interest.[1][2]
In the meantime, Michael Howard had stepped down as Tory leader following the 2005 general election, being succeeded by David Cameron. In January 2006, Charles Kennedy stepped down as leader of the Liberal Democrats to be succeeded by Menzies Campbell, who himself resigned at the end of the following year to be succeeded by Nick Clegg.
2006 had seen the Tories make gains in local elections, as well as enjoying their first consistent lead of the opinion polls in 14 years. 2007 had seen both the Tories and Labour lead the opinion polls, but 2008 saw the Tories build up a wide lead as the Labour government's support slumped in the face of the economic crisis. Labour also suffered huge losses in local elections, as well as suffering by-election defeats, with the Tories, Liberal Democrats and Scottish National Party all enjoying success at Labour's expense. This trend continued throughout 2009 as the recession deepened and unemployment continued to soar. The expenses scandal also had an adverse effect on the Labour government's dwindling popularity, although MPs from other parties were also shamed in the scandal. Labour also performed dismally at the 2009 European Parliament election,[3] and opinion polls pointed towards a heavy defeat in the event of a general election. The previous two general elections had both been held at four-year intervals, but there would be no general election in 2009.
On 6 April 2010, Brown called a general election for 6 May – with the opinion polls still showing a Conservative lead, although most of the polls showed that a Conservative majority was unlikely, suggesting that Labour could still continue in a minority or coalition government. In the event, the Tories enjoyed the largest share of votes and seats, but came 20 seats short of a majority. On 11 May, Brown tendered his resignation as prime minister to the Queen, and recommended that Cameron should be invited to form the next government. Cameron duly did so, forming a government in coalition with the Liberal Democrats, and making Clegg deputy prime minister.
Background
[edit]Since each MP is elected separately by the first past the post voting system, it is impossible to precisely project a clear election outcome from overall national shares of the vote. Not only can individual constituencies vary markedly from overall voting trends, but individual countries and regions within the nation may have a very different electoral contest that is not properly reflected in overall share of the vote figures.
Therefore, the first past the post system means that the number of MPs elected may not reflect the overall popular vote share across the parties. Thus, it is not necessarily the party with the largest share of the popular vote that ends up with the largest number of MPs. (See details of the elections in 1951 and February 1974) Since 1935 no party has achieved more than 50% of the popular vote in a British general election. The voting system favours parties with relatively concentrated support: a widely distributed vote leaves a party at risk of getting a large vote share but doing poorly in terms of numbers of seats (as the SDP–Liberal Alliance did in the 1980s), whereas parties with localised votes can win seats with a relatively small share of the vote.[4]
That said, in previous elections, approximate forecasting of results were achieved by assuming that the swing in each individual constituency will be the same across the country. This system, known as uniform national swing (UNS) is used by much of the media in Britain to assess and extrapolate electoral fortunes from opinion poll data, though there has been criticism that such predictions may be naive and unreliable, even from providers of such data.[5] By using UNS projections, several media commentators and politicians have suggested that significant swings towards the Liberal Democrats in the opinion polls may not necessarily amount to significant gains in terms of parliamentary seats, including predictions that even if the Liberal Democrats had the most votes, and Labour the least, it could be the case that Labour retains the most seats while the Lib Dems have the fewest.[6][7][8]
Normally governments can easily survive for a full parliamentary term on a majority of more than 20 seats over all other parties. Below that level there is a danger of by-elections and MPs crossing the floor of the House of Commons reducing the government to a minority such that it would be at increased risk of losing a vote of no confidence.
Polling since 2005
[edit]Immediately following the previous general election, the Labour Party held a double-digit lead in opinion polls. However, over the course of 2005, this lead was eroded somewhat. By December, the Conservative Party showed its first small leads in opinion polls following the controversial 90 days detention proposals and the election of David Cameron as Conservative leader.[9]
In early 2006, opinion polls were increasingly mixed with small leads given alternately to Labour and Conservative. From the May 2006 local elections, in which Labour suffered significant losses, the Conservatives took a small single-digit lead in opinion polls. This was the first consistent lead of the opinion polls that the Conservatives had enjoyed for 14 years.
Labour regained the lead in June 2007, following the resignation of Tony Blair as prime minister and the selection of Gordon Brown as his successor. Brown resisted calls from his party to hold a general election, despite opinion polls suggesting that Labour was capable of being re-elected at this stage. From November 2007, however, the Conservatives again took the lead and, from then, extended their lead into double digits, particularly in response to the MPs' expenses scandal and the economic recession along with the increased unemployment that resulted from it, although there was some evidence that the lead narrowed slightly towards the end of 2008 and again in late 2009. By the end of February 2010, Ipsos MORI, ICM, YouGov and ComRes polls had all found a sufficient narrowing of the Conservative lead for media speculation about a hung parliament to return - scenario which could have allowed Labour to cling onto power in a minority or coalition government.[10]
From 15 April 2010, following the first televised debate of the party leaders, however, polling data changed dramatically, with the Lib Dem vote proportion rising to 28–33%, and the Conservative vote proportion falling. In some polls, the Liberal Democrats took the lead from the Conservatives by a narrow margin which was unprecedented in the period since the Lib Dems were founded in 1988. Under UNS projections, this made a hung parliament highly probable, if Lib Dem performance had persisted.[11]
Following the second debate on 22 April the polls, on average, placed the Conservatives in the lead on 33%, the Liberal Democrats in second on 30% and Labour in third on 28%. If these polls had reflected the election day results on a uniform swing nationwide, Labour would have had the most seats in a hung Parliament, and therefore it still appeared possible that Labour might remain in power as the main party in a minority or coalition government.
Exit poll
[edit]At 10 pm on election day, coinciding with the closure of the polls, the results of an exit poll collected for the BBC, Sky and ITV news services were announced. Data were gathered from individuals at 130 polling stations around the country. The results of the poll initially suggested a hung parliament with the Conservative Party 19 seats from a controlling majority; this was later adjusted to 21 seats. The distribution of seats amongst the Conservatives, Labour, Liberal Democrats and other parties was initially suggested to be 307, 255, 59 and 29 respectively,[12] although the seat numbers were later changed to 303, 251, 69, and 27 respectively.[13]
Initial reaction to the exit poll by various commentators was of surprise at the apparent poor prospects for the Liberal Democrats[14] because it was odds with many opinion polls undertaken in the previous weeks. However, the actual results showed that the exit poll was a good predictor.
A later BBC Exit poll (05:36 BST) predicted the Conservatives on 306, 20 short of an overall majority, Labour on 262, and Liberal Democrats on 55.[13]
Graphical summaries
[edit]
The following graph shows YouGov poll results since the calling of the general election.
The following graph shows ComRes poll results recorded over the period 11 April – 6 May 2010, including annotations of the three TV debates.
Poll results
[edit]Poll results are initially listed in reverse chronological order showing the most recent first, using the date the fieldwork was done, as opposed to the date of publication.
The figure given in the 'lead' column before the televised leaders' debates is the lead held by Labour or the Conservatives over the second placed of the two parties. For figures after the first debate, after which the Liberal Democrats were placed in first or second position in some polls, the second placed party is also noted in the column where applicable.
Most of the polling companies listed are members of the British Polling Council, and abide by its disclosure rules. BPIX is not a member of the BPC, and does not publish detailed methodology and findings.
2010
[edit]| Pollster | Client | Date(s) Conducted |
Sample size |
Lab | Con | Lib Dem | Others | Lead |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2010 general election | 6 May | – | 29.7% | 36.9% | 23.6% | 9.8% | 7.2% | |
| Ipsos MORI | Evening Standard | 5 May | 1,216 | 29% | 36% | 27% | 8% | 7% |
| YouGov | The Sun | 4–5 May | 6,483 | 28% | 35% | 28% | 9%
UKIP on 3% BNP on 2% Greens on 1% SNP on 1% PC on 1% Other on 1% |
7% |
| Harris Interactive[permanent dead link] | Daily Mail | 4–5 May | 4,014 | 29% | 35% | 27% | 7% | 6% |
| Populus Archived 25 July 2018 at the Wayback Machine | The Times | 4–5 May | 2,505 | 28% | 37% | 27% | 8% | 9% |
| Angus Reid Public Opinion | PoliticalBetting.com | 4–5 May | 2,283 | 24% | 36% | 29% | 11%
UKIP on 4% BNP on 2% Greens on 1% SNP on 2% PC on 1% Other on 2% |
7% |
| Opinium[permanent dead link] | Daily Express | 4–5 May | 1,383 | 27% | 35% | 26% | 12% | 8% |
| ComRes | Multiple
ITV News The Independent |
4–5 May | 1,025 | 28% | 37% | 28% | 7% | 9% |
| ICM[permanent dead link] | The Guardian | 3–4 May | 1,527 | 28% | 36% | 26% | 10% | 8% |
| YouGov | The Sun | 3–4 May | 1,461 | 30% | 35% | 24% | 11% | 5% |
| TNS-BMRB | N/A | 29 Apr – 4 May | 1,864 | 27% | 33% | 29% | 11% | 4% |
| Harris Interactive | The Metro | 28 Apr – 4 May | 786 | 26% | 36% | 28% | 10% | 8% |
| ComRes | Multiple
ITV News The Independent |
2–3 May | 1,024 | 29% | 37% | 26% | 8% | 8% |
| YouGov | The Sun | 2–3 May | 1,455 | 28% | 35% | 28% | 9% | 7% |
| Opinium[permanent dead link] | Daily Express | 30 Apr – 3 May | 1,870 | 28% | 33% | 27% | 12% | 5% |
| YouGov[permanent dead link] | The Sun | 1–2 May | 1,475 | 28% | 34% | 29% | 9% | 5% |
| ComRes | Multiple
ITV News The Independent |
1–2 May | 1,024 | 29% | 37% | 26% | 8% | 8% |
| ICM[permanent dead link] | The Guardian | 30 Apr – 2 May | 1,026 | 28% | 33% | 28% | 12% | 5% |
| YouGov[permanent dead link] | The Sunday Times | 30 Apr – 1 May | 1,483 | 27% | 35% | 28% | 10% | 7% |
| ComRes | Multiple
The Independent Sunday Mirror |
30 Apr – 1 May | 1,019 | 28% | 38% | 25% | 9% | 10% |
| YouGov[permanent dead link] | The Sun | 30 Apr | 1,412 | 28% | 34% | 28% | 10% | 6% |
| ICM | The Sunday Telegraph | 30 Apr | 1,019 | 29% | 36% | 27% | 8% | 7% |
| Angus Reid Public Opinion | Sunday Express | 29–30 Apr | 1,874 | 23% | 35% | 29% | 12%
UKIP on 5% BNP on 3% Greens on 1% SNP on 1% PC on 1% Other on 1% |
6% |
| The third Prime Ministerial debate | ||||||||
| YouGov | The Sun | 28–29 Apr | 1,623 | 27% | 34% | 28% | 11% | 6% |
| YouGov | The Sun | 27–28 Apr | 1,530 | 27% | 34% | 31% | 8% | 3% |
| YouGov[permanent dead link] | The Sun | 26–27 Apr | 1,598 | 29% | 33% | 28% | 10% | 4% |
| ComRes | Multiple
ITV News The Independent |
26–27 Apr | 1,006 | 29% | 36% | 26% | 9% | 7% |
| Populus | The Times | 26–27 Apr | 1,510 | 27% | 36% | 28% | 8% | 8% |
| TNS-BMRB | N/A | 21–27 Apr | 2,078 | 27% | 34% | 30% | 9% | 4% |
| YouGov | The Sun | 25–26 Apr | 1,491 | 28% | 33% | 29% | 10% | 4% |
| ComRes | Multiple
ITV News The Independent |
25–26 Apr | 1,005 | 29% | 33% | 29% | 9% | 4% |
| Opinium[permanent dead link] | Daily Express | 23–26 Apr | 1,942 | 25% | 34% | 28% | 13% | 6% |
| Angus Reid Public Opinion | The Economist | 23–26 Apr | 2,433 | 23% | 33% | 30% | 14%
UKIP on 5% BNP on 2% Greens on 2% SNP on 1% PC on 1% Other on 3% |
3% |
| Harris Interactive | The Metro | 20–26 Apr | 1,678 | 25% | 32% | 30% | 13% | 2% |
| YouGov | The Sun | 24–25 Apr | 1,466 | 28% | 34% | 30% | 8% | 4% |
| ComRes | Multiple
ITV News The Independent |
24–25 Apr | 1,003 | 28% | 32% | 31% | 9% | 1% |
| ICM[permanent dead link] | The Guardian | 23–25 Apr | 1,031 | 28% | 33% | 30% | 8% | 3% |
| YouGov | The Sunday Times | 23–24 Apr | 1,412 | 27% | 35% | 28% | 9% | 7% |
| ComRes | Multiple
The Independent on Sunday Sunday Mirror |
23–24 Apr | 1,006 | 28% | 34% | 29% | 9% | 5% |
| ICM[permanent dead link] | The Sunday Telegraph | 23 Apr | 1,020 | 26% | 35% | 31% | 8% | 4% |
| Ipsos MOR | News of the World | 23 Apr | 1,245 | 30% | 36% | 23% | 11% | 6% |
| YouGov | The Sun | 22–23 Apr | 1,381 | 29% | 34% | 29% | 8% | 5% |
| The second Prime Ministerial debate | ||||||||
| YouGov[permanent dead link] | The Sun | 21–22 Apr | 1,576 | 29% | 34% | 28% | 9% | 5% |
| YouGov | The Sun | 20–21 Apr | 1,545 | 27% | 33% | 31% | 9% | 2% |
| YouGov[permanent dead link] | The Sun | 19–20 Apr | 1,595 | 26% | 31% | 34% | 9% | 3% |
| Angus Reid Public Opinion | PoliticalBetting.com | 19–20 Apr | 1,953 | 23% | 32% | 33% | 12%
UKIP on 4% BNP on 3% Greens on 2% SNP on 2% PC on 1% Other on 0% |
1% |
| ComRes | Multiple
ITV News The Independent |
19–20 Apr | 1,015 | 25% | 35% | 27% | 13% | 8% |
| Populus[permanent dead link] | The Times | 19–20 Apr | 1,501 | 28% | 32% | 31% | 9% | 1% |
| Ipsos MORI | Evening Standard | 18–20 Apr | 1,253 | 28% | 32% | 32% | 8% | Tie |
| TNS-BMRB | N/A | 14–20 Apr | 1,953 | 29% | 34% | 30% | 7% | 4% |
| ComRes | Multiple
ITV News The Independent |
18–19 Apr | 1,012 | 26% | 35% | 26% | 13% | 9% |
| YouGov | The Sun | 18–19 Apr | 1,509 | 27% | 33% | 31% | 8% | 2% |
| Opinium[permanent dead link] | Daily Express | 16–19 Apr | 1,957 | 26% | 32% | 29% | 13% | 3% |
| Angus Reid Public Opinion | PoliticalBetting.com | 16–19 Apr | 2,004 | 24% | 32% | 32% | 12%
UKIP on 4% BNP on 2% Greens on 2% SNP on 2% PC on 1% Other on 1% |
Tie |
| Harris Interactive[permanent dead link] | The Metro | 14–19 Apr | 1,792 | 26% | 31% | 30% | 13% | 1% |
| ComRes | Multiple
ITV News The Independent |
17–18 Apr | 1,003 | 28% | 32% | 28% | 12% | 4% |
| YouGov | The Sun | 17–18 Apr | 1,433 | 26% | 32% | 33% | 8% | 1% |
| ICM[permanent dead link] | The Guardian | 16–18 Apr | 1,024 | 28% | 33% | 30% | 9% | 3% |
| YouGov[permanent dead link] | The Sunday Times | 16–17 Apr | 1,490 | 30% | 33% | 29% | 8% | 3% |
| ComRes | Multiple
The Independent on Sunday Sunday Mirror |
16–17 Apr | 1,006 | 27% | 31% | 29% | 13% | 2% |
| YouGov[permanent dead link] | The Sun | 15–16 Apr | 1,290 | 28% | 33% | 30% | 9% | 3% |
| ComRes | ITV News | 15 Apr | 4,032 | 28% | 35% | 24% | 13% | 7% |
| The first ever televised Prime Ministerial debate | ||||||||
| ICM | The Sunday Telegraph | 14–15 Apr | 1,033 | 29% | 34% | 27% | 10% | 5% |
| YouGov | The Sun | 14–15 Apr | 1,490 | 31% | 37% | 22% | 10% | 6% |
| YouGov | The Sun | 13–14 Apr | 1,578 | 32% | 41% | 18% | 9% | 9% |
| ComRes | Multiple
ITV News The Independent |
12–13 Apr | 1,001 | 29% | 35% | 21% | 15% | 6% |
| YouGov | The Sun | 12–13 Apr | 1,583 | 31% | 39% | 20% | 9% | 8% |
| Harris Interactive[permanent dead link] | The Metro | 8–13 Apr | 1,523 | 27% | 36% | 23% | 14% | 9% |
| TNS-BMRB[permanent dead link] | N/A | 7–13 Apr | 1,916 | 33% | 36% | 22% | 9% | 3% |
| Populus | The Times | 12 Apr | 1,525 | 33% | 36% | 21% | 9% | 3% |
| ComRes | Multiple
ITV News The Independent |
11–12 Apr | 1,002 | 31% | 36% | 19% | 14% | 5% |
| Angus Reid Public Opinion | PoliticalBetting.com | 11–12 Apr | 2,006 | 28% | 38% | 22% | 13%
UKIP on 5% BNP on 3% Greens on 2% SNP on 2% PC on 1% |
10% |
| YouGov | The Sun | 11–12 Apr | 1,493 | 33% | 39% | 20% | 8% | 6% |
| Opinium[permanent dead link] | Daily Express | 9–12 Apr | 1,825 | 31% | 39% | 17% | 13% | 8% |
| ComRes | Multiple
ITV News The Independent |
10–11 Apr | 1,004 | 30% | 37% | 20% | 13% | 7% |
| YouGov | The Sun | 10–11 Apr | 1,455 | 31% | 37% | 20% | 12% | 6% |
| ICM | The Guardian | 9–11 Apr | 1,024 | 31% | 37% | 20% | 11% | 6% |
| YouGov | The Sunday Times | 9–10 Apr | 1,431 | 32% | 40% | 18% | 10% | 8% |
| ComRes- | Multiple
The Independent on Sunday Sunday Mirror |
9–10 Apr | 1,001 | 32% | 39% | 16% | 13% | 7% |
| YouGov[permanent dead link] | The Sun | 8–9 Apr | 1,527 | 30% | 40% | 20% | 10% | 10% |
| Harris Interactive[permanent dead link] | Daily Mail | 7–8 Apr | 1,012 | 27% | 37% | 22% | 14% | 10% |
| YouGov | The Sun | 7–8 Apr | 1,626 | 31% | 40% | 18% | 11% | 9% |
| ICM[permanent dead link] | The Sunday Telegraph | 7 Apr | 1,032 | 30% | 38% | 21% | 10% | 8% |
| YouGov | The Sun | 6–7 Apr | 1,484 | 32% | 37% | 19% | 12% | 5% |
| Angus Reid Public Opinion | PoliticalBetting.com | 6–7 Apr | 2,193 | 26% | 37% | 22% | 14%
UKIP on 5% BNP on 3% Greens on 2% SNP on 2% PC on 1% Other on 1% |
11% |
| Populus | The Times | 6 Apr | 1,507 | 32% | 39% | 21% | 8% | 7% |
| YouGov | The Sun | 5–6 Apr | 1,456 | 32% | 40% | 17% | 11% | 8% |
| Harris Interactive[permanent dead link] | The Metro | 31 Mar – 6 Apr | 2,080 | 28% | 37% | 20% | 15% | 9% |
| YouGov | The Sun | 4–5 Apr | 1,620 | 31% | 41% | 18% | 11% | 10% |
| Opinium | Daily Express | 2–5 Apr | 1,903 | 29% | 39% | 17% | 15% | 10% |
| ICM[permanent dead link] | The Guardian | 1–3 Apr | 1,001 | 33% | 37% | 21% | 9% | 4% |
| YouGov | The Sunday Times | 1–2 Apr | 1,503 | 29% | 39% | 20% | 12% | 10% |
| Angus Reid Public Opinion | Sunday Express | 31 Mar – 1 Apr | 1,991 | 27% | 38% | 20% | 15%
UKIP on 5% BNP on 4% Greens on 3% |
11% |
| YouGov | The Sun | 31 Mar – 1 Apr | 1,552 | 31% | 39% | 19% | 11% | 8% |
| ICM[permanent dead link] | The Guardian | 30–31 Mar | 1,003 | 29% | 38% | 23% | 10% | 9% |
| YouGov | The Sun | 30–31 Mar | 1,615 | 32% | 38% | 19% | 11% | 6% |
| Angus Reid Public Opinion | PoliticalBetting.com | 30–31 Mar | 2,013 | 28% | 37% | 22% | 13%
UKIP on 5% BNP on 3% Greens on 2% SNP on 2% PC on 0% Other on 1% |
9% |
| YouGov | The Sun | 29–30 Mar | 1,681 | 31% | 38% | 19% | 12% | 7% |
| TNS-BMRB | N/A | 24–30 Mar | 1,819 | 33% | 38% | 19% | 10% | 5% |
| YouGov | The Sun | 28–29 Mar | 1,614 | 32% | 39% | 18% | 11% | 7% |
| Opinium[permanent dead link] | Daily Express | 26–29 Mar | 1,780 | 28% | 38% | 18% | 16% | 10% |
| Harris Interactive[permanent dead link] | The Metro | 23–29 Mar | 1,133 | 27% | 37% | 19% | 17% | 10% |
| ComRes | The Independent | 26–28 Mar | 1,001 | 30% | 37% | 20% | 13% | 7% |
| YouGov | The Sunday Times | 25–26 Mar | 1,533 | 32% | 37% | 19% | 13% | 5% |
| ICM[permanent dead link] | News of the World | 24–25 Mar | 1,003 | 31% | 39% | 19% | 11% | 8% |
| YouGov | The Sun | 24–25 Mar | 1,483 | 33% | 37% | 18% | 12% | 4% |
| YouGov | The Sun | 23–24 Mar | 1,554 | 34% | 36% | 17% | 13% | 2% |
| YouGov | The Sun | 22–23 Mar | 1,756 | 33% | 37% | 18% | 12% | 4% |
| YouGov | The Sun | 21–22 Mar | 1,560 | 32% | 36% | 20% | 12% | 4% |
| Ipsos MORI | Daily Mirror | 19–22 Mar | 1,503 | 30% | 35% | 21% | 14% | 5% |
| Opinium[permanent dead link] | Daily Express | 19–22 Mar | 1,975 | 30% | 37% | 15% | 18% | 7% |
| Harris Interactive[permanent dead link] | The Metro | 17–22 Mar | 2,117 | 28% | 35% | 17% | 20% | 7% |
| YouGov | The Sunday Times | 18–19 Mar | 1,547 | 31% | 38% | 19% | 13% | 7% |
| ICM[permanent dead link] | News of the World | 17–18 Mar | 1,002 | 32% | 38% | 19% | 10% | 6% |
| YouGov | The Sun | 17–18 Mar | 1,671 | 32% | 36% | 20% | 12% | 4% |
| YouGov | The Sun | 16–17 Mar | 1,676 | 32% | 36% | 20% | 11% | 4% |
| Angus Reid Public Opinion | PoliticalBetting.com | 15–16 Mar | 2,003 | 26% | 39% | 21% | 15%
UKIP on 5% BNP on 4% Greens on 2% SNP on 2% PC on 1% Other on 1% |
13% |
| YouGov | The Sun | 15–16 Mar | 1,460 | 32% | 37% | 19% | 12% | 5% |
| Harris Interactive[permanent dead link] | The Metro | 10–16 Mar | 1,934 | 28% | 36% | 18% | 18% | 8% |
| YouGov | The Sun | 14–15 Mar | 1,466 | 32% | 37% | 21% | 10% | 5% |
| Opinium[permanent dead link] | Daily Express | 12–15 Mar | 1,951 | 28% | 39% | 16% | 17% | 11% |
| ICM[permanent dead link] | The Guardian | 12–14 Mar | 1,002 | 31% | 40% | 20% | 9% | 9% |
| YouGov | The Sunday Times | 11–12 Mar | 1,507 | 33% | 37% | 17% | 12% | 4% |
| ICM[permanent dead link] | The Sunday Telegraph | 10–11 Mar | 1,007 | 31% | 38% | 21% | 10% | 7% |
| YouGov | The Sun | 10–11 Mar | 1,434 | 34% | 37% | 17% | 12% | 3% |
| YouGov | The Sun | 9–10 Mar | 1,473 | 32% | 37% | 17% | 14% | 5% |
| Angus Reid Public Opinion | PoliticalBetting.com | 9–10 Mar | 2,003 | 26% | 39% | 18% | 17%
UKIP on 6% BNP on 3% Greens on 3% SNP on 3% PC on 1% Other on 1% |
13% |
| YouGov | The Sun | 8–9 Mar | 1,524 | 32% | 36% | 20% | 12% | 4% |
| YouGov | The Sun | 7–8 Mar | 1,747 | 34% | 39% | 16% | 11% | 5% |
| Opinium[permanent dead link] | Daily Express | 5–8 Mar | 1,960 | 30% | 37% | 16% | 16% | 7% |
| Harris Interactive[permanent dead link] | The Metro | 3–8 Mar | 1,498 | 29% | 37% | 18% | 16% | 8% |
| YouGov | The Sunday Times | 4–5 Mar | 1,558 | 33% | 38% | 17% | 12% | 5% |
| ICM[permanent dead link] | News of the World | 3–4 Mar | 1,005 | 31% | 40% | 18% | 11% | 9% |
| YouGov | The Sun | 3–4 Mar | 1,640 | 32% | 38% | 17% | 13% | 6% |
| YouGov | The Sun | 2–3 Mar | 1,661 | 32% | 38% | 19% | 12% | 6% |
| TNS-BMRB | N/A | 25 Feb – 3 Mar | 1,973 | 31% | 39% | 19% | 11% | 8% |
| YouGov | The Sun | 1–2 Mar | 1,479 | 33% | 38% | 16% | 13% | 5% |
| YouGov | The Sun | 28 Feb – 1 Mar | 1,505 | 32% | 39% | 17% | 12% | 7% |
| ComRes | The Independent | 26–28 Feb | 1,005 | 32% | 37% | 19% | 12% | 5% |
| YouGov | The Sunday Times | 25–26 Feb | 1,436 | 35% | 37% | 17% | 11% | 2% |
| YouGov | The Sun | 24–25 Feb | 1,472 | 33% | 39% | 16% | 12% | 6% |
| YouGov | The Sun | 23–24 Feb | 1,473 | 32% | 38% | 19% | 10% | 6% |
| TNS-BMRB | N/A | 18–24 Feb | 1,954 | 32% | 36% | 21% | 12% | 4% |
| YouGov | The Sun | 22–23 Feb | 1,469 | 32% | 38% | 17% | 12% | 6% |
| YouGov | The Sun | 21–22 Feb | 1,578 | 33% | 39% | 17% | 12% | 6% |
| Ipsos MORI | The Daily Telegraph | 19–22 Feb | 1,533 | 32% | 37% | 19% | 12% | 5% |
| Harris Interative[permanent dead link] | The Metro | 16–22 Feb | 918 | 30% | 39% | 22% | 9% | 9% |
| ICM | The Guardian | 19–21 Feb | 1,004 | 30% | 37% | 20% | 13% | 7% |
| YouGov | The Sunday Times | 18–19 Feb | 1,472 | 33% | 39% | 17% | 11% | 6% |
| Angus Reid Public Opinion | PoliticalBetting.com | 16–19 Feb | 4,004 | 26% | 38% | 19% | 16%
UKIP on 6% BNP on 4% Greens on 3% SNP on 2% PC on 1% |
12% |
| YouGov | The Sun | 17–18 Feb | 1,558 | 32% | 39% | 18% | 11% | 7% |
| ComRes | Theos | 16–17 Feb | 1,085 | 30% | 38% | 20% | 11% | 8% |
| Angus Reid Public Opinion | PoliticalBetting.com | 16–17 Feb | 2,002 | 26% | 40% | 18% | 16%
UKIP on 6% BNP on 4% Greens on 2% SNP on 2% PC on 1% Other on 1% |
14% |
| YouGov | The Sun | 16–17 Feb | 2,145 | 30% | 39% | 18% | 13% | 9% |
| ComRes | The Independent | 10–11 Feb | 1,009 | 29% | 40% | 21% | 10% | 11% |
| Angus Reid Public Opinion | PoliticalBetting.com | 9–10 Feb | 2,002 | 25% | 38% | 20% | 16%
UKIP on 6% BNP on 3% Greens on 3% SNP on 2% PC on 1% Other on 1% |
13% |
| Populus | The Times | 5–7 Feb | 1,502 | 30% | 40% | 20% | 11% | 10% |
| ICM[permanent dead link] | The Sunday Telegraph | 3–4 Feb | 1,001 | 30% | 39% | 20% | 11% | 9% |
| ComRes | The Independent | 29–31 Jan | 1,001 | 31% | 38% | 19% | 12% | 7% |
| BPIX[15] | Mail on Sunday | 29–30 Jan | 1,524 | 30% | 39% | 18% | 13% | 9% |
| YouGov | The Daily Telegraph | 28–29 Jan | 2,054 | 31% | 38% | 19% | 12% | 7% |
| YouGov | The People | 26–28 Jan | 2,044 | 31% | 40% | 18% | 11% | 9% |
| Ipsos MORI | Daily Mirror | 26–28 Jan | 1,001 | 32% | 40% | 16% | 12% | 8% |
| Angus Reid Public Opinion | PoliticalBetting.com | 26–27 Jan | 2,004 | 24% | 40% | 19% | 16%
UKIP on 5% BNP on 4% Greens on 3% SNP on 2% PC on 1% Other on 1% |
16% |
| ICM[permanent dead link] | The Guardian | 22–24 Jan | 1,000 | 29% | 40% | 21% | 10% | 11% |
| ComRes | Sunday Mirror | 20–21 Jan | 1,004 | 29% | 38% | 19% | 14% | 9% |
| YouGov | The Sunday Times | 14–15 Jan | 2,033 | 31% | 40% | 18% | 11% | 9% |
| ComRes | The Independent on Sunday | 13–14 Jan | 1,005 | 29% | 42% | 19% | 10% | 13% |
| Angus Reid Strategies[permanent dead link] | PoliticalBetting.com | 9–10 Jan | 2,010 | 24% | 40% | 20% | 17% | 16% |
| Populus | The Times | 8–10 Jan | 1,509 | 28% | 41% | 19% | 12% | 13% |
| ICM[permanent dead link] | The Sunday Telegraph | 6–7 Jan | 1,003 | 30% | 40% | 18% | 12% | 10% |
| YouGov | The Sun | 6–7 Jan | 2,832 | 30% | 42% | 16% | 12% | 12% |
| YouGov | The Sun | 5–6 Jan | 4,167 | 31% | 40% | 17% | 12% | 9% |
2009
[edit]| Pollster | Client | Date(s) Conducted |
Sample size |
Lab | Con | Lib Dem | Others | Lead |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| YouGov | The Daily Telegraph | 29–30 Dec | 1,848 | 30% | 40% | 17% | 12% | 10% |
| ComRes | The Independent | 19–20 Dec | 1,006 | 29% | 38% | 19% | 14% | 9% |
| Angus Reid Strategies | PoliticalBetting.com | 16–18 Dec | 2,010 | 24% | 40% | 20% | 15%
UKIP on 6% BNP on 3% Greens on 3% SNP on 1% PC on 1% Other on 1% |
16% |
| YouGov | The People | 15–17 Dec | 2,052 | 28% | 40% | 18% | 14% | 12% |
| ICM[permanent dead link] | The Guardian | 11–13 Dec | 1,009 | 31% | 40% | 18% | 11% | 9% |
| Ipsos MORI | The Observer | 11–13 Dec | 1,017 | 26% | 43% | 20% | 12% | 17% |
| YouGov | The Sunday Times | 10–11 Dec | 2,044 | 31% | 40% | 16% | 13% | 9% |
| ComRes[permanent dead link] | The Independent on Sunday | 9–10 Dec | 1,001 | 24% | 41% | 21% | 14% | 17% |
| Angus Reid Strategies | PoliticalBetting.com | 8–10 Dec | 2,002 | 23% | 40% | 19% | 19%
UKIP on 7% BNP on 4% Greens on 3% SNP on 3% PC on 1% Other on 1% |
17% |
| Populus | The Times | 4–6 Dec | 1,505 | 30% | 38% | 20% | 12% | 8% |
| YouGov | The Sunday Times | 3–4 Dec | 2,095 | 27% | 40% | 18% | 15% | 13% |
| ICM | The Sunday Telegraph | 2–3 Dec | 1,001 | 29% | 40% | 19% | 12% | 11% |
| ComRes | The Independent | 27–29 Nov | 1,003 | 27% | 37% | 20% | 16% | 10% |
| YouGov | The Daily Telegraph | 24–26 Nov | 2,004 | 29% | 39% | 19% | 13% | 10% |
| Angus Reid Strategies | PoliticalBetting.com | 20–23 Nov | 2,004 | 22% | 39% | 21% | 18%
UKIP on 6% BNP on 5% Greens on 3% SNP on 2% PC on 1% Other on 1% |
17% |
| Ipsos MORI | The Observer | 13–15 Nov | 1,006 | 31% | 37% | 17% | 13% | 6% |
| ICM[permanent dead link] | The Guardian | 13–15 Nov | 1,010 | 29% | 42% | 19% | 10% | 13% |
| YouGov | The Sunday Times | 12–13 Nov | 2,026 | 27% | 41% | 18% | 14% | 14% |
| Glasgow North East by-election | ||||||||
| ComRes | The Independent on Sunday | 11–12 Nov | 1,007 | 25% | 39% | 17% | 19% | 14% |
| Populus | The Times | 6–8 Nov | 1,504 | 29% | 39% | 18% | 14% | 10% |
| Angus Reid Strategies[permanent dead link] | PoliticalBetting.com | 4–6 Nov | 2,000 | 24% | 38% | 20% | 17% | 14% |
| YouGov | Channel 4 News | 4–5 Nov | 1,021 | 27% | 41% | 17% | 16% | 14% |
| ICM[permanent dead link] | The Sunday Telegraph | 28–29 Oct | 1,007 | 25% | 42% | 21% | 13% | 17% |
| YouGov | The Daily Telegraph | 27–29 Oct | 2,024 | 28% | 41% | 16% | 15% | 13% |
| ComRes | The Independent | 23–25 Oct | 1,004 | 27% | 40% | 18% | 15% | 13% |
| YouGov | The Daily Telegraph | 22–23 Oct | 1,314 | 27% | 40% | 19% | 14% | 13% |
| ICM[permanent dead link] | The Guardian | 16–18 Oct | 1,002 | 27% | 44% | 18% | 11% | 17% |
| Ipsos MORI | N/A | 16–18 Oct | 996 | 26% | 43% | 19% | 11% | 17% |
| Angus Reid Strategies[permanent dead link] | PoliticalBetting.com | 15–16 Oct | 2,077 | 23% | 40% | 20% | 15% | 17% |
| YouGov | The Sunday Times | 15–16 Oct | 2,025 | 30% | 41% | 17% | 12% | 11% |
| ComRes | The Independent on Sunday | 14–15 Oct | 1,008 | 28% | 40% | 19% | 13% | 12% |
| Populus | The Times | 9–11 Oct | 1,509 | 30% | 40% | 18% | 12% | 10% |
| YouGov | The Sun | 8–9 Oct | 2,161 | 28% | 42% | 18% | 12% | 14% |
| YouGov | Sky News | 8–9 Oct | 1,064 | 27% | 44% | 17% | 12% | 17% |
| ICM | News of the World | 7–9 Oct | 1,008 | 26% | 45% | 18% | 10% | 19% |
| YouGov | Sky News | 7–8 Oct | 1,074 | 31% | 40% | 18% | 11% | 9% |
| YouGov | Sky News | 6–7 Oct | 1,039 | 29% | 43% | 17% | 11% | 14% |
| YouGov | Sky News | 5–6 Oct | 1,223 | 28% | 41% | 18% | 13% | 13% |
| YouGov | Sky News | 4–5 Oct | 1,102 | 27% | 40% | 20% | 13% | 13% |
| YouGov | The People | 3 Oct | 2,027 | 28% | 40% | 18% | 14% | 12% |
| YouGov | Sky News | 1–2 Oct | 1,053 | 29% | 41% | 17% | 13% | 12% |
| ComRes | The Independent on Sunday | 30 Sep – 1 Oct | 1,022 | 28% | 40% | 19% | 13% | 12% |
| YouGov | Sky News | 30 Sep – 1 Oct | 1,085 | 26% | 40% | 20% | 15% | 14% |
| YouGov | Sky News | 29–30 Sep | 1,078 | 30% | 37% | 21% | 12% | 7% |
| YouGov | Sky News | 28–29 Sep | 1,024 | 29% | 40% | 18% | 13% | 11% |
| YouGov | Sky News | 27–28 Sep | 1,051 | 29% | 39% | 20% | 13% | 10% |
| Ipsos MORI | N/A | 25–27 Sep | 1,003 | 24% | 36% | 25% | 15% | 11% |
| ComRes | The Independent | 25–27 Sep | 1,003 | 23% | 38% | 23% | 16% | 15% |
| YouGov | Sky News | 24–25 Sep | 1,059 | 24% | 40% | 21% | 14% | 16% |
| YouGov | Sky News | 23–24 Sep | 1,057 | 25% | 38% | 23% | 14% | 13% |
| ICM | News of the World | 23–24 Sep | 1,003 | 26% | 40% | 23% | 11% | 14% |
| YouGov | The Daily Telegraph | 22–24 Sep | 2,026 | 26% | 39% | 20% | 15% | 13% |
| YouGov | Sky News | 22–23 Sep | 1,036 | 28% | 38% | 19% | 15% | 10% |
| YouGov | Sky News | 21–22 Sep | 1,062 | 27% | 39% | 20% | 13% | 12% |
| YouGov | Sky News | 20–21 Sep | 1,081 | 30% | 39% | 17% | 14% | 9% |
| ICM | The Guardian | 18–20 Sep | 1,001 | 26% | 43% | 19% | 12% | 17% |
| Populus | The Times | 11–13 Sep | 1,506 | 27% | 41% | 18% | 14% | 14% |
| YouGov | The Sunday Times | 10–11 Sep | 2,009 | 27% | 41% | 17% | 15% | 14% |
| ComRes | The Independent | 4–6 Sep | 1,005 | 24% | 40% | 21% | 15% | 16% |
| YouGov | The Daily Telegraph | 4–6 Sep | 1,573 | 27% | 40% | 18% | 15% | 13% |
| YouGov | The Sun | 27–28 Aug | 1,996 | 28% | 42% | 17% | 14% | 14% |
| YouGov | The Daily Telegraph | 25–27 Aug | 2,199 | 26% | 42% | 18% | 14% | 16% |
| Ipsos MORI | N/A | 21–23 Aug | 1,013 | 26% | 43% | 17% | 13% | 17% |
| ICM | The Guardian | 21–23 Aug | 1,004 | 25% | 41% | 19% | 14% | 16% |
| ComRes | The Independent on Sunday | 19–20 Aug | 1,013 | 24% | 41% | 18% | 16% | 17% |
| YouGov | The Sunday Times | 13–14 Aug | 2,007 | 28% | 42% | 18% | 13% | 14% |
| ICM/Sunday Mirror | Sunday Mirror | 12–13 Aug | 1,005 | 26% | 43% | 19% | 12% | 17% |
| YouGov | The Daily Telegraph | 28–30 July | 2,334 | 27% | 41% | 18% | 15% | 14% |
| ComRes | The Independent | 24–26 July | 1,008 | 24% | 42% | 18% | 16% | 18% |
| Norwich North by-election | ||||||||
| YouGov | The People | 21–23 July | 2,218 | 25% | 40% | 20% | 16% | 15% |
| Ipsos MORI | N/A | 17–19 July | 1,012 | 24% | 40% | 18% | 18% | 16% |
| Populus | The Times | 17–19 July | 1,504 | 26% | 38% | 20% | 16% | 12% |
| YouGov | The Sunday Times | 16–17 July | 1,956 | 25% | 42% | 18% | 15% | 17% |
| ComRes | The Independent on Sunday | 15–16 July | 1,010 | 23% | 38% | 22% | 16% | 15% |
| ICM | The Guardian | 10–11 July | 1,000 | 27% | 41% | 20% | 12% | 14% |
| YouGov | Fabian Society | 1–3 July | 2,001 | 26% | 39% | 19% | 17% | 13% |
| ComRes | The Independent | 26–28 June | 1,007 | 25% | 36% | 19% | 20% | 11% |
| YouGov | The People | 24–26 June | 2,017 | 24% | 40% | 17% | 19% | 16% |
| YouGov | The Daily Telegraph | 23–25 June | 2,233 | 25% | 38% | 18% | 19% | 13% |
| Ipsos MORI[permanent dead link] | N/A | 19–21 June | 1,004 | 21% | 38% | 19% | 23% | 17% |
| ComRes | The Independent on Sunday | 17–18 June | 1,012 | 22% | 39% | 18% | 21% | 17% |
| Harris Interative[permanent dead link] | The Metro | 10–17 June | 2,081 | 20% | 35% | 16% | 29% | 15% |
| Ipsos MORI | UNISON | 12–14 June | 1,252 | 25% | 39% | 19% | 17% | 14% |
| ICM[permanent dead link] | The Guardian | 12–14 June | 1,006 | 27% | 39% | 18% | 15% | 12% |
| YouGov | The Sunday Times | 11–12 June | 1,902 | 24% | 40% | 18% | 19% | 16% |
| Populus | The Times | 9–10 June | 1,001 | 24% | 36% | 19% | 21% | 12% |
| 2009 European Parliament election | ||||||||
| ComRes | The Independent | 5–7 June | 1,001 | 22% | 38% | 20% | 20% | 16% |
| 2009 United Kingdom local elections | ||||||||
| YouGov | The Daily Telegraph | 2–3 June | 4,014 | 21% | 37% | 19% | 23% | 16% |
| ComRes | The Independent | 29–31 May | 1,005 | 22% | 30% | 18% | 30% | 8% |
| Ipsos MORI | 29–31 May | 1,001 | 18% | 40% | 18% | 24% | 22% | |
| YouGov | The Daily Telegraph | 27–29 May | 5,016 | 22% | 39% | 18% | 21% | 17% |
| ICM[permanent dead link] | The Sunday Telegraph | 27–28 May | 1,013 | 22% | 40% | 25% | 13% | 15% |
| Populus | The Times | 27–28 May | 1,001 | 21% | 41% | 15% | 23% | 20% |
| Populus | ITV News | 19–20 May | 1,000 | 27% | 39% | 17% | 18% | 12% |
| ICM | The Guardian | 15–17 May | 1,002 | 28% | 39% | 20% | 14% | 11% |
| YouGov | The Daily Telegraph | 14–16 May | 2,235 | 23% | 39% | 19% | 19% | 16% |
| ComRes | The Independent on Sunday | 13–14 May | 1,010 | 21% | 40% | 18% | 21% | 19% |
| YouGov | The Sun | 13–14 May | 1,814 | 22% | 41% | 19% | 18% | 19% |
| Populus | The Times | 8–10 May | 1,504 | 26% | 39% | 22% | 13% | 13% |
| BPIX[15] | Mail on Sunday | 8–9 May | Unknown[15] | 23% | 45% | 17% | 15% | 22% |
| YouGov | The Sunday Times | 7–8 May | 2,209 | 27% | 43% | 18% | 12% | 16% |
| ComRes | The Independent | 24–26 April | 1,003 | 26% | 45% | 17% | 12% | 19% |
| YouGov/Sunday People | Sunday People | 23–24 April | 1,855 | 27% | 45% | 17% | 12% | 18% |
| YouGov | The Daily Telegraph | 22–23 April | 1,896 | 27% | 45% | 18% | 10% | 18% |
| Ipsos MORI | N/A | 17–19 April | 1,011 | 28% | 41% | 22% | 9% | 13% |
| ICM[permanent dead link] | The Guardian | 17–19 April | 1,005 | 30% | 40% | 19% | 11% | 10% |
| Marketing Sciences | The Sunday Telegraph | 15–16 April | 1,007 | 26% | 43% | 21% | 10% | 17% |
| Populus | The Times | 3–5 April | 1,512 | 30% | 43% | 18% | 9% | 13% |
| YouGov | The Sunday Times | 3–4 April | 2,125 | 34% | 41% | 16% | 10% | 7% |
| ComRes | The Independent | 27–29 March | 1,002 | 28% | 40% | 18% | 14% | 12% |
| ICM[permanent dead link] | The Sunday Telegraph | 25–26 March | 1,003 | 31% | 44% | 18% | 8% | 13% |
| YouGov | The Daily Telegraph | 24–26 March | 2,104 | 31% | 41% | 17% | 11% | 10% |
| ComRes | The Independent on Sunday | 18–19 March | 1,002 | 30% | 41% | 17% | 12% | 11% |
| ICM[permanent dead link] | The Guardian | 13–15 March | 1,004 | 30% | 42% | 20% | 8% | 12% |
| Ipsos MORI | N/A | 13–15 March | 1,007 | 32% | 42% | 14% | 11% | 10% |
| YouGov | The Sunday Times | 12–13 March | 1,840 | 31% | 41% | 17% | 11% | 10% |
| Populus | The Times | 6–8 March | 1,504 | 30% | 42% | 19% | 9% | 12% |
| ComRes | The Independent | 27 Feb – 1 Mar | 1,006 | 28% | 44% | 17% | 12% | 16% |
| YouGov | The Daily Telegraph | 24–26 Feb | 2,063 | 31% | 41% | 15% | 12% | 10% |
| ICM[permanent dead link] | The Guardian | 20–22 Feb | 1,004 | 30% | 42% | 18% | 10% | 12% |
| Ipsos MORI | N/A | 13–15 Feb | 1,001 | 28% | 48% | 17% | 7% | 20% |
| YouGov | The Sunday Times | 12–13 Feb | 1,711 | 32% | 44% | 14% | 10% | 12% |
| ComRes | The Independent on Sunday | 11–12 Feb | 1,002 | 25% | 41% | 22% | 12% | 16% |
| Populus | The Times | 6–8 Feb | 1,504 | 28% | 42% | 18% | 12% | 14% |
| ICM | The Sunday Telegraph | 4–5 Feb | 1,010 | 28% | 40% | 22% | 10% | 12% |
| YouGov | The Daily Telegraph | 27–29 Jan | 2,338 | 32% | 43% | 16% | 10% | 11% |
| ICM | The Guardian | 23–25 Jan | 1,003 | 32% | 44% | 16% | 8% | 12% |
| ComRes | The Independent | 21–22 Jan | 1,012 | 28% | 43% | 16% | 13% | 15% |
| Ipsos MORI | N/A | 16–18 Jan | 1,005 | 30% | 44% | 17% | 9% | 14% |
| YouGov | The Sunday Times | 15–16 Jan | 2,077 | 32% | 45% | 14% | 9% | 13% |
| ComRes | The Independent on Sunday | 14–15 Jan | 1,009 | 32% | 41% | 15% | 12% | 9% |
| Populus | The Times | 9–11 Jan | 1,500 | 33% | 43% | 15% | 9% | 10% |
| YouGov | The Sun | 7–8 Jan | 1,835 | 34% | 41% | 15% | 10% | 7% |
2008
[edit]| Pollster | Client | Date(s) Conducted |
Sample size |
Lab | Con | Lib Dem | Others | Lead |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ComRes | The Independent | 19–21 Dec | 1,000 | 34% | 39% | 16% | 11% | 5% |
| YouGov | The Daily Telegraph | 16–18 Dec | 2,241 | 35% | 42% | 14% | 9% | 7% |
| Ipsos MORI | N/A | 12–14 Dec | 1,000 | 35% | 39% | 15% | 11% | 4% |
| ICM[permanent dead link] | The Guardian | 12–14 Dec | 1,003 | 33% | 38% | 19% | 10% | 5% |
| YouGov | The Sunday Times | 11–12 Dec | 2,098 | 35% | 41% | 15% | 10% | 6% |
| ComRes | The Independent on Sunday | 10–11 Dec | 1,003 | 36% | 37% | 14% | 12% | 1% |
| Ipsos MORI | N/A | 10–11 Dec | 1,007 | 36% | 41% | 11% | 12% | 5% |
| Populus | The Times | 5–7 Dec | 1,505 | 35% | 39% | 17% | 9% | 4% |
| ComRes | The Independent | 28–30 Nov | 1,005 | 36% | 37% | 17% | 10% | 1% |
| Ipsos MORI | The Observer | 27–28 Nov | 1,017 | 32% | 43% | 15% | 10% | 11% |
| ICM | The Guardian | 25–26 Nov | 1,027 | 30% | 45% | 18% | 7% | 15% |
| YouGov | The Daily Telegraph | 24–25 Nov | 1,556 | 36% | 40% | 14% | 10% | 4% |
| ICM[permanent dead link] | Sunday Mirror | 19–20 Nov | 1,010 | 31% | 42% | 19% | 8% | 11% |
| Ipsos MORI | N/A | 14–16 Nov | 1,002 | 37% | 40% | 12% | 11% | 3% |
| YouGov | The Sunday Times | 13–14 Nov | 2,080 | 36% | 41% | 14% | 10% | 5% |
| ComRes | The Independent on Sunday | 12–13 Nov | 1,010 | 32% | 43% | 12% | 13% | 11% |
| Populus | The Times | 7–9 Nov | 1,503 | 35% | 41% | 16% | 8% | 6% |
| ICM[permanent dead link] | The Sunday Telegraph | 5–6 Nov | 1,005 | 30% | 43% | 18% | 9% | 13% |
| Glenrothes by-election | ||||||||
| BPIX[15] | N/A | 2 Nov | ? | 31% | 45% | 13% | 11% | 14% |
| YouGov | The Daily Telegraph | 27–29 Oct | 2,271 | 33% | 42% | 15% | 10% | 9% |
| ComRes | The Independent | 24–26 Oct | 1,001 | 31% | 39% | 16% | 14% | 8% |
| Ipsos MORI | N/A | 17–19 Oct | 1,004 | 30% | 45% | 14% | 11% | 15% |
| ICM[permanent dead link] | The Guardian | 17–19 Oct | 1,007 | 30% | 42% | 21% | 7% | 12% |
| BPIX[15] | N/A | 16–18 Oct | 2,046 | 30% | 46% | 13% | 11% | 16% |
| YouGov | The Daily Mirror | 15–17 Oct | 2,029 | 34% | 42% | 14% | 10% | 8% |
| ComRes | The Independent on Sunday | 15–16 Oct | 1,005 | 31% | 40% | 16% | 14% | 9% |
| YouGov | The Sunday Times | 9–10 Oct | 1,941 | 33% | 43% | 14% | 10% | 10% |
| Populus | The Times | 3–5 Oct | 1,503 | 30% | 45% | 15% | 10% | 15% |
| YouGov | The Daily Telegraph | 1–3 Oct | 2,048 | 31% | 45% | 15% | 9% | 14% |
| ComRes | The Independent | 26–28 Sep | 1,017 | 29% | 41% | 18% | 12% | 12% |
| BPIX[15] | N/A | 24–26 Sep | 2,020 | 31% | 43% | 17% | 9% | 12% |
| ICM | The Guardian | 24–25 Sep | 1,012 | 32% | 41% | 18% | 9% | 9% |
| YouGov | The Sun | 23–24 Sep | 1,536 | 31% | 41% | 16% | 12% | 10% |
| ComRes | The Independent on Sunday | 17–18 Sep | 1,010 | 27% | 39% | 21% | 12% | 12% |
| YouGov | The Daily Telegraph | 17–19 Sep | 2,227 | 24% | 44% | 20% | 12% | 20% |
| Ipsos MORI | N/A | 12–14 Sep | 1,017 | 24% | 52% | 12% | 12% | 28% |
| YouGov | The Sunday Times | 10–12 Sep | 2,161 | 27% | 46% | 16% | 11% | 19% |
| ComRes | The Independent | 3–4 Sep | 1,013 | 25% | 44% | 17% | 14% | 19% |
| Populus | The Times | 29–31 Aug | 1,506 | 27% | 43% | 18% | 12% | 16% |
| YouGov | The Daily Telegraph | 26–27 Aug | 2,267 | 26% | 45% | 16% | 13% | 19% |
| ComRes | The Independent | 20–21 Aug | 1,014 | 25% | 46% | 16% | 13% | 21% |
| ICM | The Guardian | 15–17 Aug | 1,002 | 29% | 44% | 19% | 8% | 15% |
| Ipsos MORI | N/A | 15–17 Aug | 1,005 | 24% | 48% | 16% | 12% | 24% |
| YouGov | The Sunday Times | 14–15 Aug | 1,745 | 25% | 45% | 18% | 12% | 20% |
| YouGov | News of the World | 6–8 Aug | 2,031 | 26% | 46% | 17% | 11% | 20% |
| BPIX[15] | N/A | 31 Jul – 2 Aug | 1,333 | 24% | 47% | 16% | 13% | 23% |
| ICM | Sunday Express | 30 Jul – 1 Aug | 1,001 | 29% | 45% | 16% | 10% | 16% |
| YouGov | The Daily Telegraph | 29–31 July | 1,949 | 25% | 47% | 16% | 12% | 22% |
| Populus | The Times | 25–27 July | 1,002 | 27% | 43% | 18% | 12% | 16% |
| YouGov | The Daily Telegraph | 23–25 July | 2,120 | 26% | 45% | 17% | 12% | 19% |
| ComRes | The Independent | 23–24 July | 1,021 | 24% | 46% | 18% | 12% | 22% |
| Glasgow East by-election | ||||||||
| Ipsos MORI | N/A | 18–20 July | 1,016 | 27% | 47% | 15% | 11% | 20% |
| ICM[permanent dead link] | The Guardian | 18–20 July | 1,007 | 28% | 43% | 19% | 10% | 15% |
| ComRes | The Independent on Sunday | 16–17 July | 1,016 | 24% | 45% | 16% | 15% | 21% |
| YouGov | The Sunday Times | 10–11 July | 1,832 | 25% | 47% | 16% | 12% | 22% |
| Populus | The Times | 4–6 July | 1,507 | 28% | 41% | 19% | 12% | 13% |
| ComRes | The Independent | 25–26 June | 1,007 | 25% | 46% | 18% | 11% | 21% |
| YouGov | The Daily Telegraph | 23–25 June | 2,163 | 28% | 46% | 15% | 11% | 18% |
| Henley by-election | ||||||||
| ICM | The Guardian | 20–22 June | 1,000 | 25% | 45% | 20% | 10% | 20% |
| BPIX[15] | N/A | 18–20 June | 2,385 | 26% | 49% | 14% | 11% | 23% |
| Ipsos MORI | N/A | 13–15 June | 1,012 | 28% | 45% | 16% | 11% | 17% |
| ComRes | The Independent on Sunday | 11–12 June | 1,012 | 26% | 44% | 17% | 13% | 18% |
| YouGov | The Sunday Times | 12–13 June | 1,769 | 25% | 47% | 18% | 10% | 22% |
| Populus | The Times | 6–8 June | 1,508 | 25% | 45% | 20% | 10% | 20% |
| ICM | The Sunday Telegraph | 4–5 June | 1,023 | 26% | 42% | 21% | 11% | 16% |
| ComRes | The Independent | 30 May – 1 June | 1,006 | 30% | 44% | 16% | 10% | 14% |
| YouGov | The Daily Telegraph | 27–29 May | 2,241 | 23% | 47% | 18% | 12% | 24% |
| Crewe and Nantwich by-election | ||||||||
| ICM | The Guardian | 16–18 May | 1,008 | 27% | 41% | 22% | 10% | 14% |
| YouGov | The Sunday Times | 15–16 May | 1,854 | 25% | 45% | 18% | 12% | 20% |
| ComRes | The Independent on Sunday | 14–15 May | 1,004 | 26% | 43% | 19% | 12% | 17% |
| YouGov | The Sun | 7–8 May | 1,571 | 23% | 49% | 17% | 11% | 26% |
| Populus | The Times | 2–4 May | 1,509 | 29% | 40% | 19% | 11% | 11% |
| 2008 United Kingdom local elections | ||||||||
| ComRes[permanent dead link] | The Independent | 25–27 Apr | 1,005 | 26% | 40% | 20% | 14% | 14% |
| ICM | The Sunday Telegraph | 23–24 Apr | 1,010 | 29% | 39% | 20% | 12% | 10% |
| YouGov | The Daily Telegraph | 21–23 Apr | 2,073 | 26% | 44% | 17% | 13% | 18% |
| Ipsos-MORI | The Observer | 17–22 Apr | 1,059 | 31% | 40% | 19% | 10% | 9% |
| ICM/The Gurdian | N/A | 18–20 Apr | 1,000 | 34% | 39% | 19% | 8% | 5% |
| Populus | Sunday Mirror | 16–17 Apr | 1,006 | 30% | 40% | 19% | 11% | 10% |
| YouGov | The Sunday Times | 10–11 Apr | 1,755 | 28% | 44% | 17% | 11% | 16% |
| Populus | The Times | 8–10 Apr | 1,502 | 33% | 39% | 17% | 6% | 6% |
| ICM | The Sunday Telegraph | 2–3 Apr | 1,010 | 32% | 43% | 18% | 7% | 11% |
| ComRes | The Independent | 28–30 Mar | 1,004 | 31% | 38% | 17% | 14% | 7% |
| YouGov | The Daily Telegraph | 25–27 Mar | 1,926 | 29% | 43% | 17% | 11% | 14% |
| Ipsos MORI | N/A | 13–18 Mar | 1,983 | 35% | 40% | 18% | 7% | 5% |
| ICM | The Guardian | 14–16 Mar | 1,003 | 29% | 42% | 21% | 8% | 13% |
| YouGov | The Sunday Times | 13–14 Mar | 2,311 | 27% | 43% | 16% | 13% | 16% |
| ICM[permanent dead link] | News of the World | 12–13 Mar | 1,002 | 31% | 40% | 20% | 9% | 9% |
| Populus | The Times | 7–9 Mar | 1,502 | 34% | 37% | 19% | 10% | 3% |
| YouGov | The Daily Telegraph | 25–27 Feb | 2,011 | 33% | 40% | 16% | 11% | 7% |
| Ipsos MORI | N/A | 21–26 Feb | 2,063 | 37% | 39% | 16% | 8% | 2% |
| ComRes | The Independent | 22–24 Feb | 1,010 | 30% | 41% | 17% | 12% | 11% |
| YouGov/The Economist | The Economist | 18–20 Feb | 2,118 | 34% | 40% | 16% | 11% | 6% |
| ICM[permanent dead link] | The Guardian | 15–17 Feb | 1,003 | 34% | 37% | 21% | 8% | 3% |
| YouGov | The Sunday Times | 14–15 Feb | 2,469 | 32% | 41% | 16% | 11% | 9% |
| Populus | The Times | 1–3 Feb | 1,504 | 31% | 40% | 17% | 12% | 9% |
| ICM[permanent dead link] | The Sunday Telegraph | 30–31 Jan | 1,012 | 32% | 37% | 21% | 10% | 5% |
| ComRes | The Independent | 25–27 Jan | 1,003 | 30% | 38% | 17% | 15% | 8% |
| YouGov | The Daily Telegraph | 21–23 Jan | 1,992 | 33% | 41% | 16% | 10% | 8% |
| Ipsos MORI | N/A | 17–22 Jan | 2,045 | 38% | 37% | 16% | 9% | 1% |
| ICM | The Guardian | 18–20 Jan | 1,009 | 35% | 37% | 20% | 8% | 2% |
| YouGov | The Sunday Times | 10–11 Jan | 2,139 | 33% | 43% | 14% | 11% | 10% |
| ICM[permanent dead link] | The Sunday Telegraph | 9–10 Jan | 1,011 | 33% | 40% | 18% | 9% | 7% |
| Ipsos MORI | The Sun | 9–10 Jan | 1,006 | 32% | 42% | 15% | 11% | 10% |
| Populus | The Times | 4–6 Jan | 1,509 | 33% | 37% | 19% | 11% | 4% |
2007
[edit]| Pollster | Client | Date(s) Conducted |
Sample size |
Lab | Con | Lib Dem | Others | Lead |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ICM[permanent dead link] | The Guardian | 18–19 Dec | 1,034 | 34% | 39% | 18% | 9% | 5% |
| YouGov | The Daily Telegraph | 17–19 Dec | 2,060 | 31% | 43% | 16% | 11% | 12% |
| Nick Clegg becomes leader of the Liberal Democrats | ||||||||
| ComRes[permanent dead link] | The Independent | 14–16 Dec | 1,004 | 30% | 41% | 16% | 12% | 11% |
| YouGov | The Sunday Times | 13–14 Dec | 1,481 | 32% | 45% | 14% | 10% | 13% |
| Populus | The Times | 7–9 Dec | 1,506 | 32% | 40% | 16% | 11% | 8% |
| Ipsos MORI | N/A | 29 Nov – 7 Dec | 1,859 | 35% | 42% | 14% | 9% | 7% |
| ICM[permanent dead link] | News of the World | 28–29 Nov | 1,011 | 30% | 41% | 19% | 10% | 11% |
| YouGov | The Daily Telegraph | 26–29 Nov | 4,004 | 32% | 43% | 14% | 11% | 11% |
| Ipsos MORI | N/A | 23–27 Nov | 1,933 | 32% | 41% | 17% | 10% | 9% |
| ComRes[permanent dead link] | The Independent | 23–25 Nov | 1,009 | 27% | 41% | 18% | 15% | 13% |
| ICM[permanent dead link] | The Guardian | 21–22 Nov | 1,005 | 31% | 37% | 21% | 10% | 6% |
| YouGov | Channel 4 News | 21–22 Nov | 1,600 | 32% | 41% | 14% | 13% | 9% |
| YouGov | The Sunday Times | 14–16 Nov | 1,983 | 35% | 41% | 13% | 11% | 6% |
| ICM[permanent dead link] | Sunday Express | 8–10 Nov | 1,001 | 35% | 43% | 15% | 7% | 8% |
| Populus | The Times | 2–4 Nov | 1,503 | 37% | 36% | 16% | 11% | 1% |
| Ipsos MORI | The Sun | 31 Oct – 1 Nov | 1,013 | 35% | 40% | 13% | 12% | 5% |
| ICM[permanent dead link] | The Guardian | 26–28 Oct | 1,011 | 35% | 40% | 18% | 7% | 5% |
| ComRes[permanent dead link] | The Independent | 26–28 Oct | 1,002 | 33% | 42% | 15% | 10% | 8% |
| YouGov | The Daily Telegraph | 22–24 Oct | 2,105 | 38% | 41% | 11% | 10% | 3% |
| Ipsos MORI | The Observer | 18–23 Oct | 1,987 | 41% | 40% | 13% | 6% | 1% |
| ICM[permanent dead link] | The Sunday Telegraph | 10–11 Oct | 1,010 | 36% | 43% | 14% | 8% | 7% |
| Ipsos MORI | The Sun | 10 Oct | 1,007 | 38% | 41% | 11% | 10% | 3% |
| YouGov | The Sunday Times | 5–6 Oct | 1,757 | 38% | 41% | 11% | 10% | 3% |
| Populus | The Times | 5–7 Oct | 1,008 | 40% | 38% | 12% | 10% | 2% |
| YouGov | Channel 4 News | 3–4 Oct | 1,741 | 40% | 36% | 13% | 11% | 4% |
| ICM | The Guardian | 3–4 Oct | 1,008 | 38% | 38% | 16% | 8% | Tie |
| Populus | The Times | 2–3 Oct | 1,000 | 39% | 36% | 15% | 10% | 3% |
| YouGov | The Daily Telegraph | 26–28 Sep | 2,165 | 43% | 32% | 15% | 10% | 11% |
| Ipsos MORI | The Observer | 27–28 Sep | 1,000 | 41% | 34% | 16% | 9% | 7% |
| Populus | The Times | 26–27 Sep | 1,002 | 41% | 31% | 17% | 10% | 10% |
| Ipsos MORI | N/A | 20–26 Sep | 1,964 | 44% | 31% | 15% | 10% | 13% |
| YouGov | Channel 4 News | 24–25 Sep | 1,341 | 44% | 33% | 13% | 11% | 11% |
| Ipsos MORI | The Sun | 20–22 Sep | 1,009 | 42% | 34% | 14% | 10% | 8% |
| YouGov | The Daily Telegraph | 19–21 Sep | 2,085 | 39% | 33% | 16% | 12% | 6% |
| ICM | Sunday Mirror | 19–20 Sep | 1,029 | 39% | 33% | 19% | 9% | 6% |
| ICM | The Guardian | 13–16 Sep | 1,005 | 40% | 32% | 20% | 8% | 8% |
| YouGov | The Sunday Times | 13–14 Sep | 1,942 | 39% | 34% | 15% | 12% | 5% |
| ComRes[permanent dead link] | The Independent | 11–12 Sep | 1,005 | 37% | 34% | 15% | 14% | 3% |
| Populus | The Times | 31 Aug – 2 Sep | 1,506 | 37% | 36% | 18% | 9% | 1% |
| YouGov | GMTV | 29–31 Aug | 2,154 | 38% | 35% | 15% | 12% | 3% |
| ComRes[permanent dead link] | The Independent | 29–30 Aug | 1,016 | 35% | 36% | 14% | 14% | 1% |
| Ipsos MORI | The Sun | 23–29 Aug | 1,941 | 41% | 36% | 16% | 7% | 5% |
| Populus | Conservative Party | 25–28 Aug | 530 | 37% | 36% | 16% | 10% | 1% |
| YouGov | The Daily Telegraph | 24–28 Aug | 2,266 | 41% | 33% | 14% | 12% | 8% |
| ICM | The Guardian | 22–23 Aug | 1,016 | 39% | 34% | 18% | 9% | 5% |
| YouGov | The Sunday Times | 9–10 Aug | 1,966 | 42% | 32% | 14% | 12% | 10% |
| ICM | Sunday Mirror | 8–10 Aug | 1,007 | 39% | 33% | 18% | 10% | 6% |
| Ipsos MORI | The Sun | 8–9 Aug | 531 | 38% | 33% | 15% | 14% | 5% |
| Populus | The Times | 27–29 July | 1,511 | 39% | 33% | 15% | 13% | 6% |
| Communicate[permanent dead link] | The Independent | 27–29 July | 1,006 | 37% | 34% | 16% | 14% | 3% |
| YouGov | The Daily Telegraph | 23–25 July | 1,877 | 41% | 32% | 16% | 11% | 9% |
| ICM | The Guardian | 20–22 July | 1,005 | 38% | 32% | 20% | 10% | 6% |
| YouGov | The Sunday Times | 19–20 July | 1,664 | 40% | 33% | 15% | 12% | 7% |
| Ipsos MORI | The Observer | 12–17 July | 1,919 | 41% | 35% | 15% | 9% | 6% |
| ICM | Sunday Mirror | 4–5 July | 1,006 | 37% | 35% | 17% | 10% | 2% |
| Populus | The Times | 1 July | 1,504 | 37% | 34% | 18% | 11% | 3% |
| YouGov | The Daily Telegraph | 28–29 June | 1,886 | 38% | 35% | 15% | 12% | 3% |
| ICM | The Guardian | 27–28 June | 1,005 | 39% | 35% | 18% | 8% | 4% |
| Gordon Brown becomes Prime Minister of the United Kingdom | ||||||||
| Communicate[permanent dead link] | The Independent | 22–24 June | 1,005 | 32% | 37% | 18% | 13% | 5% |
| Ipsos MORI | The Observer | 14–20 June | 1,970 | 39% | 36% | 15% | 10% | 3% |
| YouGov | The Sunday Times | 14–15 June | 1,753 | 35% | 37% | 14% | 14% | 2% |
| Populus | N/A | 1–3 June | 1,503 | 33% | 36% | 17% | 14% | 3% |
| ICM | The Sunday Telegraph | 30–31 May | 1,014 | 32% | 37% | 21% | 10% | 5% |
| Communicate[permanent dead link] | The Independent | 25–28 May | 1,003 | 31% | 35% | 19% | 15% | 4% |
| YouGov | The Daily Telegraph | 21–23 May | 2,050 | 33% | 39% | 15% | 13% | 6% |
| ICM | The Guardian | 18–20 May | 1,003 | 32% | 34% | 21% | 12% | 2% |
| Populus | The Times | 11–13 May | 1,504 | 33% | 37% | 17% | 13% | 4% |
| YouGov | The Sunday Times | 10–11 May | 1,962 | 34% | 38% | 15% | 14% | 4% |
| 2007 United Kingdom local elections | ||||||||
| YouGov | The Daily Telegraph | 23–25 Apr | 2,019 | 32% | 37% | 18% | 14% | 5% |
| Ipsos MORI | The Observer | 19–25 Apr | 1,163 | 31% | 38% | 20% | 11% | 7% |
| ICM | The Guardian | 20–22 Apr | 1,005 | 30% | 37% | 21% | 12% | 7% |
| Populus | The Times | 13–15 Apr | 1,503 | 29% | 37% | 20% | 14% | 8% |
| YouGov | The Sunday Times | 4–5 Apr | 2,218 | 31% | 39% | 16% | 14% | 8% |
| YouGov | The Daily Telegraph | 26–28 Mar | 2,042 | 32% | 39% | 17% | 13% | 7% |
| Communicate[permanent dead link] | N/A | 23–25 Mar | 1,002 | 31% | 35% | 20% | 14% | 4% |
| YouGov | The Daily Telegraph | 21–22 Mar | 2,752 | 31% | 39% | 16% | 14% | 8% |
| ICM | The Guardian | 16–18 Mar | 1,011 | 31% | 41% | 18% | 10% | 10% |
| YouGov | The Sunday Times | 15–16 Mar | 1,897 | 32% | 38% | 16% | 14% | 6% |
| Ipsos MORI | N/A | 9–15 Mar | 1,983 | 33% | 41% | 17% | 9% | 8% |
| Populus | The Times | 2–4 Mar | 1,509 | 30% | 38% | 18% | 14% | 8% |
| Communicate[permanent dead link] | N/A | 23–25 Feb | 1,001 | 29% | 40% | 17% | 14% | 11% |
| YouGov | The Daily Telegraph | 19–21 Feb | 2,292 | 32% | 37% | 17% | 14% | 5% |
| ICM | The Guardian | 16–18 Feb | 1,000 | 31% | 40% | 19% | 10% | 9% |
| YouGov | The Sunday Times | 8–9 Feb | 2,019 | 32% | 37% | 18% | 14% | 5% |
| Populus | The Times | 2–4 Feb | 1,509 | 33% | 36% | 19% | 12% | 3% |
| Ipsos MORI | N/A | 19–29 Jan | 949 | 35% | 39% | 19% | 7% | 4% |
| Communicate[permanent dead link] | N/A | 26–28 Jan | 1,008 | 29% | 34% | 21% | 16% | 5% |
| YouGov | The Daily Telegraph | 22–24 Jan | 2,245 | 31% | 38% | 18% | 13% | 7% |
| ICM | The Guardian | 19–21 Jan | 1,004 | 31% | 37% | 23% | 9% | 6% |
| Populus | The Times | 5–7 Jan | 1,507 | 32% | 39% | 18% | 11% | 7% |
2006
[edit]| Date(s) Conducted |
Polling Organisation / Client | Sample size |
Lab | Con | Lib Dem | Others | Lead |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20–22 Dec | YouGov/Sunday Times | 1,918 | 32% | 37% | 15% | 15% | 5% |
| 18–20 Dec | YouGov/Daily Telegraph | 1,874 | 33% | 37% | 17% | 13% | 4% |
| 19–20 Dec | Communicate | 1,009 | 37% | 36% | 14% | 14% | 1% |
| 15–17 Dec | ICM/The Guardian | 1,006 | 32% | 40% | 18% | 10% | 8% |
| 9–12 Dec | Ipsos MORI | 1,938 | 36% | 37% | 18% | 9% | 1% |
| 8–10 Dec | Populus/The Times | 1,513 | 33% | 34% | 19% | 14% | 1% |
| 28–30 Nov | YouGov/Daily Telegraph | 1,979 | 32% | 37% | 16% | 15% | 5% |
| 29–30 Nov | ICM/News of the World | 1,006 | 31% | 39% | 20% | 10% | 8% |
| 24–26 Nov | Communicate | 1,004 | 36% | 34% | 17% | 12% | 2% |
| 17–19 Nov | ICM/The Guardian | 1,000 | 32% | 37% | 22% | 9% | 5% |
| 9–14 Nov | Ipsos MORI | 1,115 | 33% | 35% | 20% | 12% | 2% |
| 3–5 Nov | Populus/The Times | 1,510 | 33% | 36% | 20% | 11% | 3% |
| 24–26 Oct | YouGov/Daily Telegraph | 1,722 | 32% | 39% | 16% | 13% | 7% |
| 20–22 Oct | Communicate | 977 | 32% | 38% | 14% | 15% | 6% |
| 20–22 Oct | ICM/The Guardian | 1,019 | 29% | 39% | 22% | 9% | 10% |
| 12–16 Oct | Ipsos MORI/Financial Times | 1,113 | 37% | 35% | 18% | 10% | 2% |
| 6–8 Oct | Populus/The Times | 1,515 | 35% | 36% | 18% | 11% | 1% |
| 4–5 Oct | ICM/Sunday Telegraph | 1,005 | 32% | 38% | 20% | 10% | 6% |
| 28–30 Sep | ICM/Sunday Mirror | 1,029 | 35% | 36% | 19% | 11% | 1% |
| 27–29 Sep | YouGov/Daily Telegraph | 1,849 | 36% | 36% | 16% | 12% | Tie |
| 21–22 Sep | YouGov/Sunday Times | 1,546 | 33% | 37% | 18% | 12% | 4% |
| 19–22 Sep | YouGov/Daily Telegraph | 1,733 | 31% | 38% | 18% | 13% | 7% |
| 19–20 Sep | ICM/The Guardian | 1,066 | 32% | 36% | 22% | 10% | 4% |
| 13–14 Sep | ICM/Sunday Mirror | 1,003 | 33% | 37% | 21% | 8% | 4% |
| 13–14 Sep | YouGov/The Sun | 1,519 | 31% | 38% | 18% | 14% | 7% |
| 6–7 Sep | YouGov/Daily Telegraph | 1,504 | 32% | 40% | 17% | 11% | 8% |
| 31 Aug – 6 Sep | Ipsos MORI/Sunday Times | 1,186 | 36% | 35% | 19% | 10% | 1% |
| 1–3 Sep | Populus/The Times | 1,504 | 32% | 36% | 20% | 13% | 4% |
| 22–24 Aug | YouGov/Daily Telegraph | 1,757 | 31% | 38% | 18% | 13% | 7% |
| 18–20 Aug | ICM/The Guardian | 1,007 | 31% | 40% | 22% | 8% | 9% |
| 24–26 July | YouGov/Daily Telegraph | 1,633 | 33% | 38% | 18% | 11% | 5% |
| 20–24 July | Ipsos MORI | 1,897 | 32% | 36% | 24% | 8% | 4% |
| 21–23 July | ICM/The Guardian | 1,001 | 35% | 39% | 17% | 9% | 4% |
| 7–9 July | Populus/The Times | 1,512 | 34% | 36% | 19% | 11% | 2% |
| 29 June | By-elections in Blaenau Gwent and Bromley & Chislehurst | ||||||
| 28–29 June | ICM/Sunday Telegraph | 1,003 | 35% | 36% | 18% | 11% | 1% |
| 26–28 June | YouGov/Daily Telegraph | 1,962 | 33% | 39% | 18% | 10% | 6% |
| 22–26 June | Ipsos MORI | 1,931 | 33% | 36% | 21% | 10% | 3% |
| 21–23 June | YouGov/Daily Telegraph | 2,009 | 32% | 39% | 17% | 12% | 7% |
| 16–18 June | ICM/The Guardian | 1,005 | 32% | 37% | 21% | 9% | 5% |
| 8–12 June | Ipsos MORI/The Observer | 1,975 | 34% | 41% | 18% | 7% | 7% |
| 2–4 June | Populus/The Times | 1,505 | 34% | 37% | 18% | 11% | 3% |
| 25–30 May | Ipsos MORI | 1,984 | 31% | 41% | 18% | 10% | 10% |
| 23–25 May | YouGov/Daily Telegraph | 2,102 | 32% | 38% | 16% | 14% | 6% |
| 19–21 May | ICM/The Guardian | 1,001 | 34% | 38% | 20% | 8% | 4% |
| 8–9 May | YouGov/Daily Telegraph | 1,910 | 31% | 37% | 17% | 15% | 6% |
| 5–7 May | Populus/The Times | 1,516 | 30% | 38% | 20% | 11% | 8% |
| 4 May | 2006 United Kingdom local elections | ||||||
| 27 Apr – 2 May | Ipsos MORI/Financial Times | 1,078 | 32% | 36% | 21% | 11% | 4% |
| 27–28 Apr | YouGov/Sunday Times | 1,930 | 32% | 35% | 18% | 15% | 3% |
| 21–23 Apr | ICM/The Guardian | 1,006 | 32% | 34% | 24% | 10% | 2% |
| 20–22 Apr | Ipsos MORI/The Sun | 1,006 | 30% | 30% | 25% | 15% | Tie |
| 18–20 Apr | YouGov/Daily Telegraph | 2,075 | 35% | 33% | 17% | 15% | 2% |
| 31 Mar – 2 Apr | Populus/The Times | 1,503 | 36% | 34% | 21% | 10% | 2% |
| 27–29 Mar | YouGov/Daily Telegraph | 1,873 | 36% | 36% | 18% | 10% | Tie |
| 16–21 Mar | Ipsos MORI | 1,155 | 39% | 34% | 19% | 8% | 5% |
| 16–18 Mar | ICM/Sunday Telegraph | 1,003 | 37% | 33% | 21% | 9% | 4% |
| 16–17 Mar | YouGov/Sunday Times | 1,811 | 35% | 38% | 19% | 8% | 3% |
| 10–12 Mar | ICM/The Guardian | 1,006 | 37% | 34% | 21% | 8% | 3% |
| 3–5 Mar | Populus/The Times | 1,509 | 35% | 35% | 20% | 9% | Tie |
| 2 Mar | Sir Menzies Campbell becomes leader of the Liberal Democrats | ||||||
| 21–22 Feb | YouGov/Daily Telegraph | 2,019 | 36% | 38% | 18% | 9% | 2% |
| 16–20 Feb | Ipsos MORI/The Sun | 1,143 | 38% | 35% | 20% | 7% | 3% |
| 17–19 Feb | ICM/The Guardian[permanent dead link] | 1,002 | 34% | 37% | 21% | 8% | 3% |
| 9–10 Feb | YouGov/Sunday Times | 1,617 | 39% | 37% | 15% | 10% | 2% |
| 9 Feb | Dunfermline and West Fife by-election | ||||||
| 3–5 Feb | Populus/The Times | 1,508 | 36% | 37% | 18% | 9% | 1% |
| 24–26 Jan | YouGov/Daily Telegraph | 2,096 | 40% | 39% | 13% | 9% | 1% |
| 19–23 Jan | Ipsos MORI | 1,163 | 38% | 40% | 17% | 5% | 2% |
| 20–22 Jan | ICM/The Guardian | 1,009 | 36% | 37% | 19% | 7% | 1% |
| 12–17 Jan | Ipsos MORI/The Sun | 541 | 39% | 39% | 15% | 7% | Tie |
| 6–8 Jan | Populus/The Times | 1,509 | 39% | 36% | 16% | 9% | 3% |
2005
[edit]| Date(s) Conducted |
Polling Organisation / Client | Sample size |
Lab | Con | Lib Dem | Others | Lead |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15–18 Dec | ICM/The Guardian | 1,004 | 36% | 37% | 21% | 7% | 1% |
| 13–15 Dec | YouGov/Daily Telegraph | 2,071 | 36% | 38% | 18% | 8% | 2% |
| 9–12 Dec | MORI/The Observer | 1,000 | 31% | 40% | 20% | 9% | 9% |
| 9–11 Dec | Populus/The Times | 1,521 | 38% | 35% | 19% | 8% | 3% |
| 6–8 Dec | YouGov/Sunday Times | 2,089 | 36% | 37% | 18% | 8% | 1% |
| 7–8 Dec | ICM/The Guardian | 1,003 | 35% | 37% | 21% | 7% | 2% |
| 6 Dec | David Cameron becomes leader of the Conservative Party | ||||||
| 5–6 Dec | YouGov/Sky News | 1,612 | 36% | 36% | 18% | 10% | Tie |
| 22–24 Nov | YouGov/Daily Telegraph | 2,616 | 37% | 35% | 20% | 8% | 2% |
| 17–22 Nov | MORI | 1,089 | 42% | 32% | 19% | 7% | 10% |
| 18–20 Nov | ICM/The Guardian | 1,013 | 38% | 33% | 19% | 10% | 5% |
| 4–6 Nov | Populus/The Times | 1,512 | 40% | 32% | 19% | 9% | 8% |
| 2–3 Nov | ICM/Sunday Telegraph | 1,010 | 39% | 33% | 21% | 7% | 6% |
| 25–27 Oct | YouGov/Daily Telegraph | 1,947 | 40% | 32% | 19% | 9% | 8% |
| 20–25 Oct | MORI | 1,904 | 40% | 34% | 21% | 5% | 6% |
| 19–20 Oct | ICM/The Guardian[permanent dead link] | 1,007 | 36% | 33% | 22% | 8% | 3% |
| 7–9 Oct | Populus/The Times | 1,509 | 40% | 30% | 21% | 9% | 10% |
| 5–6 Oct | ICM/News of the World | 1,015 | 38% | 32% | 22% | 8% | 5% |
| 27–29 Sep | YouGov/Daily Telegraph | 2,183 | 40% | 32% | 20% | 9% | 8% |
| 22–26 Sep | MORI | 1,132 | 39% | 29% | 25% | 7% | 10% |
| 16–17 Sep | ICM/The Guardian | 1,013 | 40% | 31% | 21% | 8% | 9% |
| 8–9 Sep | YouGov/Sunday Times | 1,856 | 37% | 32% | 21% | 10% | 5% |
| 2–4 Sep | Populus/The Times | 1,506 | 37% | 35% | 20% | 8% | 2% |
| 19–24 Aug | YouGov/Daily Telegraph | – | 40% | 33% | 20% | 7% | 7% |
| 11–15 Aug | MORI | 1,191 | 39% | 31% | 24% | 6% | 8% |
| 12–14 Aug | ICM/The Guardian | 1,006 | 38% | 31% | 22% | 9% | 7% |
| 26–28 July | YouGov/Daily Telegraph | – | 40% | 31% | 21% | 8% | 9% |
| 22–24 July | Populus/The Times | 1,506 | 40% | 28% | 22% | 10% | 12% |
| 14–18 July | MORI/The Observer | 1,227 | 41% | 28% | 25% | 6% | 13% |
| 15–17 July | ICM/The Guardian | 1,005 | 39% | 31% | 23% | 7% | 8% |
| 28–30 June | YouGov/Daily Telegraph | 3,717 | 38% | 33% | 20% | 9% | 5% |
| 16–20 June | MORI | 1,227 | 42% | 29% | 21% | 8% | 13% |
| 17–19 June | ICM/The Guardian | 1,005 | 38% | 31% | 23% | 8% | 7% |
| 24–26 May | YouGov/Daily Telegraph | – | 38% | 31% | 23% | 8% | 7% |
| 19–23 May | MORI/Financial Times | 1,274 | 37% | 30% | 26% | 7% | 7% |
| 5 May | 2005 general election | – | 36.2% | 33.2% | 22.7% | 7.9% | 3% |
See also
[edit]- Opinion polling for the 2015 United Kingdom general election
- Opinion polling for the 2005 United Kingdom general election
- 2009 European Parliament election in the United Kingdom
- List of political parties in the United Kingdom
Notes
[edit]- ^ Hennessy, Patrick; Kite, Melissa (7 October 2007). "Gordon Brown: Why I put off an early election". The Daily Telegraph. Archived from the original on 22 May 2021. Retrieved 20 January 2021.
- ^ Sylvester, Rachel (22 April 2015). "What if... Gordon Brown had called an election in 2007?". Prospect Magazine. Archived from the original on 6 March 2021. Retrieved 20 January 2021.
- ^ Wintour, Patrick (8 June 2009). "European elections: Labour suffers long, dark night of humiliation". The Guardian. Archived from the original on 8 December 2020. Retrieved 19 January 2021.
- ^ Wyburn-Powell, Alun (11 June 2014). "The rise of multi-party politics heightens the chances of a perverse and unrepresentative outcome in next year's General Election" (PDF). Democratic Audit UK. London School of Economics. Archived (PDF) from the original on 5 July 2022. Retrieved 15 December 2020.
- ^ "Predicting Results". UK Polling Report. Archived from the original on 21 December 2010. Retrieved 24 December 2023.
- ^ Baston, Lewis (18 April 2010). "Pollwatch: Election 2010 could be the death knell for first past the post". The Guardian. ISSN 0261-3077. Archived from the original on 6 March 2016. Retrieved 4 December 2016.
- ^ Barone, Michael (19 April 2010). "The Lib Dems surge in Britain". Washington Examiner. Archived from the original on 22 July 2023. Retrieved 15 December 2020.
- ^ "Rivals target Lib Dem policies". BBC. 19 April 2010. Archived from the original on 24 December 2023. Retrieved 24 December 2023.
- ^ Wells, Anthony (10 December 2005). "Tories take the Lead". UKPollingReport. Archived from the original on 18 January 2012. Retrieved 15 March 2010.
- ^ Wells, Anthony (29 January 2010). "YouGov show Tory lead cut to 7 points". UK Polling Report. Archived from the original on 3 February 2010. Retrieved 23 May 2010.
- ^ Editorial (20 April 2010). "General election 2010: All change for new politics". The Guardian. Archived from the original on 23 November 2020. Retrieved 15 December 2020.
- ^ "Exit poll: Tories to fall 19 short of majority". BBC. 6 May 2010. Archived from the original on 17 August 2012. Retrieved 24 December 2023.
- ^ a b "Live coverage – General Election 2010". BBC News. 6 May 2010. Archived from the original on 13 March 2012. Retrieved 6 May 2010.
- ^ "Parties surprised by exit poll". BBC News. 6 May 2010. Archived from the original on 22 August 2019. Retrieved 7 May 2010.
- ^ a b c d e f g h BPIX is not a member of the British Polling Council, unlike the other main pollsters such as YouGov, ComRes, Populus, Ipsos MORI, and ICM. Therefore, the full details of its polls are not subject to public disclosure.
P – The dates when the fieldwork for this poll was carried out is unknown, therefore the date of publication has been given.