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2010 New Mexico gubernatorial election

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2010 New Mexico gubernatorial election

← 2006 November 2, 2010 2014 →
 
Nominee Susana Martinez Diane Denish
Party Republican Democratic
Running mate John Sanchez Brian Colón
Popular vote 321,219 280,614
Percentage 53.29% 46.55%

Martínez:      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%      >90%
Denish:      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%      >90%
Tie:      50%      No data

Governor before election

Bill Richardson
Democratic

Elected Governor

Susana Martínez
Republican

The 2010 New Mexico gubernatorial election took place on November 2, 2010. Democratic governor Bill Richardson was term limited and could not seek a third consecutive term.

On June 1, 2010, the Republicans nominated Susana Martínez, the district attorney for Doña Ana County, New Mexico, and the Democrats nominated Lieutenant Governor Diane Denish.

While it was initially thought that Richardson would resign early to become Secretary of Commerce in the Obama administration, Richardson withdrew from the position due to allegations of corruption that were later cleared and he remained governor until the conclusion of his term.[1]

Susana Martínez won the election on November 2, 2010, and became New Mexico's first elected female governor, as well as the first Latina governor of any state.

Primary election

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Democratic party

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The Democratic primary election was held on June 1, 2010.[2]

Candidates

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Results

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Democratic primary results[4]
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Diane Denish 108,302 99.07%
Democratic Billy J. Driggs (write-in) 1,016 0.93%
Total votes 109,318 100.00%

Republican party

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The Republican primary was held on June 1, 2010.[2] Susana Martinez won the Republican nomination by getting over 50 percent of the vote in the primary. A pre-primary convention was held on March 13 and Martinez received 47 percent of the pre-primary Republican vote.[5]

Candidates

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Declared
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Declined
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Convention

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A pre-primary nominating convention was held on March 13, 2010. Susana Martinez was victorious, winning the support of 46.65 percent of delegates, while Allen Weh received 26.32%, Janice Arnold-Jones received 13.16%, Doug Turner won 9.43%, and Pete Domenici Jr. won 4.61%. Candidates who receive less than 20% of the convention vote are required to collect twice as many signatures as those who received 20% in order to appear on the primary ballot. Nonetheless, Arnold-Jones, Turner and Domenici all signaled their intention to remain in the race.[5]

Polling

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Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Janice Arnold-Jones Pete Domenici Jr. Susana Martínez Doug Turner Allen Weh Undecided
SurveyUSA[12] May 23–25, 2010 3% 8% 43% 8% 33% 5%
New Mexico State University[13] February 9–13, 2010 2.5% 29.3% 11.5% 6.8% 7.4% 42.6%

Results

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Results by county:
Martínez
  •   60–70%
  •   50–60%
  •   40–50%
  •   <40%
Weh
  •   <40%
  •   40–50%
Republican primary results[4]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Susana Martínez 62,006 50.71%
Republican Allen Weh 33,727 27.58%
Republican Doug Turner 14,166 11.59%
Republican Pete Domenici, Jr. 8,630 7.06%
Republican Janice Arnold-Jones 3,740 3.06%
Total votes 122,269 100.00%

General election

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Predictions

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Source Ranking As of
Cook Political Report[14] Tossup October 14, 2010
Rothenberg[15] Lean R (flip) October 28, 2010
RealClearPolitics[16] Lean R (flip) November 1, 2010
Sabato's Crystal Ball[17] Likely R (flip) October 28, 2010
CQ Politics[18] Likely D October 28, 2010

Polling

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Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Diane
Denish (D)
Susana
Martínez (R)
Other Undecided
Rasmussen Reports[19] October 24, 2010 42% 52%
SurveyUSA[20] October 15, 2010 42% 54%
Rasmussen Reports[19] October 10, 2010 43% 52%
Rasmussen Reports[21] September 29, 2010 41% 51%
Albuquerque Journal[22] September 27–30, 2010 41% 47%
Public Policy Polling[23] September 25–26, 2010 42% 50%
Public Opinion Strategies[24] September 11–13, 2010 40% 50%
Albuquerque Journal[25] August 23–27, 2010 39% 45%
Rasmussen Reports[26] August 24, 2010 43% 48%
Magellan Strategies[27] June 21, 2010 43% 44%
Rasmussen Reports[28] June 3, 2010 42% 44%
Rasmussen Reports[19] May 25, 2010 43% 42%
SurveyUSA[12] May 23–25, 2010 43% 49%
Rasmussen Reports[29] March 24, 2010 51% 32%
Public Policy Polling[30] February 18–20, 2010 46% 32%
Hypothetical polling

With Arnold-Jones

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Diane
Denish (D)
Janice
Arnold-Jones (R)
Other Undecided
Rasmussen Reports[19] May 25, 2010 45% 31%
SurveyUSA[12] May 23–25, 2010 49% 35%
Rasmussen Reports[29] March 24, 2010 52% 30%
Public Policy Polling[30] February 18–20, 2010 47% 33%

With Domenici Jr.

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Diane
Denish (D)
Pete
Domenici Jr. (R)
Other Undecided
Rasmussen Reports[19] May 25, 2010 47% 30%
SurveyUSA[12] May 23–25, 2010 46% 40%
Rasmussen Reports[29] March 24, 2010 52% 35%
Public Policy Polling[30] February 18–20, 2010 45% 40%

With Turner

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Diane
Denish (D)
Doug
Turner (R)
Other Undecided
Rasmussen Reports[19] May 25, 2010 47% 31%
SurveyUSA[12] May 23–25, 2010 50% 36%
Rasmussen Reports[29] March 24, 2010 43% 34%
Public Policy Polling[30] February 18–20, 2010 46% 32%

With Weh

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Diane
Denish (D)
Allen
Weh (R)
Other Undecided
Rasmussen Reports[19] May 25, 2010 45% 39%
SurveyUSA[12] May 23–25, 2010 47% 42%
Rasmussen Reports[29] March 24, 2010 45% 35%
Public Policy Polling[30] February 18–20, 2010 48% 30%

Results

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2010 New Mexico gubernatorial election[31]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Republican Susana Martinez 321,219 53.29% +22.10%
Democratic Diane Denish 280,614 46.55% −22.27%
Republican Kenneth A. Gomez (write-in) 994 0.16%
Majority 40,605 6.74%
Total votes 602,827 100.00%
Republican gain from Democratic Swing +44.37%

Results by county

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Martinez was the first Republican gubernatorial candidate to carry Guadalupe County since Edwin L. Mechem in 1958.

County Susana Martinez
Republican
Diane Denish
Democratic
Kenneth A. Gomez
Write-in
Margin Total votes cast
# % # % # % # %
Bernalillo 102,711 50.79% 99,278 49.10% 218 0.11% 3,433 1.70% 202,207
Catron 1,472 77.60% 420 22.14% 5 0.26% 1,052 55.46% 1,897
Chaves 11,279 70.32% 4,715 29.40% 46 0.29% 6,564 40.92% 16,040
Cibola 3,176 48.52% 3,340 51.02% 30 0.46% -164 -2.51% 6,546
Colfax 2,916 60.21% 1,913 39.50% 14 0.29% 1,003 20.71% 4,843
Curry 7,234 72.50% 2,700 27.06% 44 0.44% 4,534 45.44% 9,978
De Baca 619 68.93% 276 30.73% 3 0.33% 343 38.20% 898
Doña Ana 24,628 51.40% 23,190 48.40% 94 0.20% 1,438 3.00% 47,912
Eddy 10,144 69.22% 4,498 30.69% 12 0.08% 5,646 38.53% 14,654
Grant 5,165 48.76% 5,406 51.03% 22 0.21% -241 -2.28% 10,593
Guadalupe 1,100 57.05% 828 42.95% 0 0.00% 272 14.11% 1,928
Harding 337 62.29% 204 37.71% 0 0.00% 133 24.58% 541
Hidalgo 1,014 58.18% 728 41.77% 1 0.06% 286 16.41% 1,743
Lea 9,661 74.18% 3,341 25.65% 21 0.16% 6,320 48.53% 13,023
Lincoln 5,544 73.50% 1,990 26.38% 9 0.12% 3,554 47.12% 7,543
Los Alamos 4,729 54.28% 3,972 45.59% 11 0.13% 757 8.69% 8,712
Luna 3,588 58.73% 2,498 40.89% 23 0.38% 1,090 17.84% 6,109
McKinley 5,850 34.69% 10,965 65.02% 50 0.30% -5,115 -30.33% 16,865
Mora 1,220 46.39% 1,410 53.61% 0 0.00% -190 -7.22% 2,630
Otero 11,085 69.70% 4,792 30.13% 27 0.17% 6,293 39.57% 15,904
Quay 1,955 65.10% 1,036 34.50% 12 0.40% 919 30.60% 3,003
Rio Arriba 4,818 40.47% 7,066 59.35% 22 0.18% -2,248 -18.88% 11,906
Roosevelt 3,162 71.59% 1,244 28.16% 11 0.25% 1,918 43.42% 4,417
San Juan 24,857 69.59% 10,777 30.17% 86 0.24% 14,080 39.42% 35,720
San Miguel 3,508 38.31% 5,641 61.60% 8 0.09% -2,133 -23.29% 9,157
Sandoval 24,097 56.50% 18,478 43.33% 72 0.17% 5,619 13.18% 42,647
Santa Fe 17,441 32.61% 35,963 67.24% 82 0.15% -18,522 -34.63% 53,486
Sierra 2,887 65.78% 1,495 34.06% 7 0.16% 1,392 31.72% 4,389
Socorro 3,317 52.93% 2,942 46.94% 8 0.13% 375 5.98% 6,267
Taos 3,495 29.35% 8,415 70.65% 0 0.00% -4,920 -41.31% 11,910
Torrance 3,788 67.35% 1,827 32.49% 9 0.16% 1,961 34.87% 5,624
Union 1,071 72.71% 400 27.16% 2 0.14% 671 45.55% 1,473
Valencia 13,351 59.97% 8,866 39.83% 45 0.20% 4,485 20.15% 22,262
Total 321,219 53.29% 280,614 46.55% 994 0.16% 40,605 6.74% 602,827

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

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See also

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References

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  1. ^ "Richardson withdrawal leaves cabinet gap". NBC News. January 6, 2009. Retrieved January 4, 2009.
  2. ^ a b Rudin, Ken (January 25, 2010). "Your 2010 Election Calendar". National Public Radio. Retrieved February 14, 2010.
  3. ^ Jennings, Trip (November 5, 2009). "Denish, running for governor, steps into budgetary fray". The New Mexico Independent. Retrieved February 14, 2010.
  4. ^ a b "Canvass of Returns of Primary Election Held on June 1, 2010" (PDF). New Mexico Secretary of State. Retrieved July 29, 2024.
  5. ^ a b Haussamen, Heath (March 13, 2010). "Martinez takes impressive 47 percent of votes at GOP convention". The New Mexico Independent. Retrieved March 13, 2010.
  6. ^ "New Mexico Gov Field at Two With More Likely". CQ Politics. August 1, 2009. Archived from the original on August 5, 2009. Retrieved February 14, 2010.
  7. ^ "Pete Domenici Jr. to run for governor". KRQE. January 16, 2010. Archived from the original on January 17, 2010. Retrieved February 14, 2010.
  8. ^ a b "Susana Martinez officially declares candidacy for NM governor". Las Cruces Sun-News. February 9, 2010. Archived from the original on October 1, 2011. Retrieved February 14, 2010.
  9. ^ "Pearce Switches Races". Political Wire. July 6, 2009. Archived from the original on July 9, 2009. Retrieved February 14, 2010.
  10. ^ "Wilson: I won't run for governor". KRQE. October 29, 2009. Archived from the original on June 11, 2011. Retrieved February 14, 2010.
  11. ^ Ornelas, Chris (July 17, 2009). "GOP gubernatorial candidate drops out". KOB. Archived from the original on February 21, 2012. Retrieved February 14, 2010.
  12. ^ a b c d e f SurveyUSA
  13. ^ New Mexico State University
  14. ^ "2010 Governors Race Ratings". Cook Political Report. Archived from the original on October 28, 2010. Retrieved October 28, 2010.
  15. ^ "Governor Ratings". Rothenberg Political Report. Retrieved October 28, 2010.
  16. ^ "2010 Governor Races". RealClearPolitics. Retrieved October 28, 2010.
  17. ^ "THE CRYSTAL BALL'S FINAL CALLS". Sabato's Crystal Ball. Retrieved October 28, 2010.
  18. ^ "Race Ratings Chart: Governor". CQ Politics. Archived from the original on October 5, 2010. Retrieved October 28, 2010.
  19. ^ a b c d e f g Rasmussen Reports
  20. ^ SurveyUSA Archived September 6, 2021, at the Wayback Machine
  21. ^ Rasmussen Reports
  22. ^ Albuquerque Journal
  23. ^ Public Policy Polling
  24. ^ Public Opinion Strategies
  25. ^ Albuquerque Journal
  26. ^ Rasmussen Reports
  27. ^ Magellan Strategies
  28. ^ Rasmussen Reports
  29. ^ a b c d e Rasmussen Reports
  30. ^ a b c d e Public Policy Polling
  31. ^ "Canvass of Returns of General Election Held on November 2, 2010" (PDF). New Mexico Secretary of State. Retrieved July 29, 2024.
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Official campaign websites (Archived)