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2015 Louisiana gubernatorial election

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For related races, see 2015 United States gubernatorial elections.
2015 Louisiana gubernatorial election
← 2011 October 24, 2015 (first round)
November 21, 2015 (runoff)		 2019 →
Turnout39.2% Decrease (first round)
40.2% Increase (runoff)
 
Nominee John Bel Edwards David Vitter
Party Democratic Republican
First round 444,517
39.89% 		256,300
23.00%
Runoff 646,924
56.11% 		505,940
43.89%
 
Candidate Scott Angelle Jay Dardenne
Party Republican Republican
First round 214,982
19.29% 		166,656
14.96%
Runoff Eliminated Eliminated
Edwards:      30–40%      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%     >90%
Vitter:      30–40%      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%     80–90%     >90%
Angelle:      30–40%      60–70%
Other:      Tie      No Data
Governor before election

Bobby Jindal
Republican

Elected Governor

John Bel Edwards
Democratic

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The 2015 Louisiana gubernatorial election was held on November 21, 2015, to elect the governor of Louisiana. Incumbent Republican governor Bobby Jindal was not eligible to run for re-election to a third term because of term limits established by the Louisiana Constitution.

Under Louisiana's jungle primary system, all candidates appeared on the same ballot, regardless of party and voters may vote for any candidate regardless of their party affiliation. As no candidate received a majority of the vote during the primary election on October 24, 2015, a runoff election was held on November 21, 2015, between the top two candidates in the primary. Louisiana is the only state that has a jungle primary system (California and Washington have a similar "top two primary" system).

The runoff election featured Democrat John Bel Edwards, Minority Leader of the Louisiana House of Representatives, and Republican U.S. senator David Vitter, as they were the top two vote getters in the primary. Lieutenant Governor Jay Dardenne and Public Service Commissioner Scott Angelle, both Republicans, were eliminated in the jungle primary.

In the runoff, which was held November 21, 2015, Edwards defeated Vitter by a count of 56.11% to 43.89% and was sworn in on January 11, 2016.[1][2] Edwards became the first Democrat to win a statewide election in Louisiana since Mary Landrieu won her third term in the U.S. Senate in 2008; his victory also came one year after national wins for the Republican Party in congressional and state elections. The election was one of the most expensive in state history, with over $50 million spent by candidates and outside groups.[3]

Candidates

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Republican Party

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Filed

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Declined

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Democratic Party

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Filed

[edit]

Declined

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Ineligible

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  • Edwin Edwards, former governor, U.S. representative and state senator (ineligible due to 2000 felony convictions for bribery and racketeering)[26]

Independents

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Filed

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  • Beryl Billiot, restaurant owner and former Marine[27]
  • Jeremy Odom, minister[28]
  • Eric Paul Orgeron[29]

Declined

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Endorsements

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Scott Angelle
Organizations
  • Terrebonne Republican Party[35]
  • Republican Party of East Baton Rouge Parish[36]
  • Livingston Parish Republican Party[37]
Publishers
  • Greater Baton Rouge Business Report[38]
  • The Hayride, Louisiana Conservative Political Commentary Site[39]
Public Figures
Politicians
  • Paul Hardy, 48th lieutenant governor of Louisiana
  • Fred Mills, Louisiana state senator
  • Guy Cormier, St. Martin Parish President
Jay Dardenne
Politicians
John Bel Edwards
Organizations
Politicians
Newspapers
David Vitter
Organizations
Politicians

Jungle primary

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Polling

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Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin
of error 		Scott
Angelle (R) 		Jay
Dardenne (R) 		John Bel
Edwards (D) 		John
Kennedy (R) 		Mitch
Landrieu (D) 		David
Vitter (R) 		Other Undecided
MarblePortLLC October 20–21, 2015 1464 ± 3% 12.7% 14.1% 40.5% — — 28.5% — 4.3%
MRI October 15–19, 2015 600 ± ?% 17% 14% 36% — — 19% 2% 12%
Harper Polling (R) October 16–17, 2015 612 ± 3.9% 14% 14% 36% — — 26% — 9%
KPLC/Raycom Media October 7–13, 2015 602 ± 4% 7% 8% 24% — — 21% — 37%
The Advocate/WWL-TV September 20–23, 2015 800 ± 3.46% 15% 14% 24% — — 24% — 18%
Public Policy Polling September 21–22, 2015 616 ± 4% 15% 14% 28% — — 27% — 17%
Verne Kennedy July 27–31, 2015 600 ± 4% 25% 12% 20% — — 22% — 21%
MarblePort June 17, 2015 1415 ± 2.6% 11.1% 10.4% 28.8% — — 34.1% — 15.6%
Verne Kennedy May 27–29, 2015 700 ± 3.5% 17% 12% 29% — — 29% — 13%
SM&O Research May 5, 2015 600 ± 4.0% 6% 17% 25% — — 38% — 16%
MarblePort March 17, 2015 1,071 ± 2.99% 7% 14% 31% — — 34% — 14%
Triumph March 5, 2015 1,655 ± 2.4% 7% 15% 33% — — 35% — 11%
NSO Research* January 10–13, 2015 600 ± 4% 2% 10% 20% 13% — 24% — 32%
SM&O Research December 9–11, 2014 600 ± ? 3.1% 18.6% 25.7% — — 36.3% — 16.3%
Suffolk Archived October 27, 2014, at the Wayback Machine October 23–26, 2014 500 ± 4% 3% 9.8% 3.8% — 22.6% 31.6% — 29.2%
Multi-Quest October 22–24, 2014 606 ± 4% 2.3% 10.9% 4% — — 25.9% 3.8%[63] 53.1%
SM&O Research April 28–30, 2014 600 ± ? 3.8% 10.5% 5.5% 11.7% 28.9% 28.9% — 10.6%
PSB April 2014 601 ± ? — 14% 17% 8% — 18% 14%[64] 29%
Magellan March 24–26, 2014 600 ± 4.1% — 13.1% 4.6% 8.5% 26.4% 27.6% — 19.8%
V/C Research Archived September 12, 2014, at the Wayback Machine February 20–25, 2014 600 ± 4% — 11% 8% 9% 33% 25% — 15%
Kitchens Group** February 10–12, 2014 600 ± 4.2% — 9% 21% 7% — 26% — 38%
WPAOR^ November 12–14, 2013 800 ± 3.5% — 12% 2% 9% 20% 25% 11%[65] 11
— 22% — — 29% 35% — 14%
SM&O Research November 6–12, 2013 600 ± 4% 2.1% 18% 7.9% 18.9% — 30.3% — 22.9%
Magellan October 2–4, 2012 2,862 ± 1.9% — 6.5% — 7.2% 29.4% 31.1% 9.1%[66] 16.7%
  • * Internal poll for the John Kennedy campaign
  • ** Internal poll for the John Bel Edwards campaign
  • ^ Internal poll for the Jay Dardenne campaign

Results

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Louisiana gubernatorial election, 2015[67]
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic John Bel Edwards 444,517 39.89
Republican David Vitter 256,300 23.00
Republican Scott Angelle 214,982 19.29
Republican Jay Dardenne 166,656 14.96
Democratic Cary Deaton 11,763 1.06
Democratic S.L. Simpson 7,420 0.67
Independent Beryl Billiot 5,694 0.51
Independent Jeremy Odom 4,756 0.43
Independent Eric Orgeron 2,248 0.2
Total votes 1,114,336 100

Runoff

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Campaign

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Sign for John Bel Edwards

A debate between Edwards and Vitter was held on November 10 by Louisiana Public Broadcasting and the Council for a Better Louisiana.[68]

Early voting was possible from November 7 until November 14. Despite having one fewer day due to Veterans Day, turnout was significantly higher compared to the primary election early voting, especially among black voters and in urban parishes.[69]

Debates

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Predictions

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Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[70] Lean D (flip) November 13, 2015
Rothenberg Political Report[71] Tossup November 6, 2015
Sabato's Crystal Ball[72] Lean D (flip) November 19, 2015
DKE[73] Tossup October 29, 2015

Polling

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Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin of
error 		David
Vitter (R) 		John Bel
Edwards (D) 		Undecided
JMC Analytics November 19, 2015 614 ± 3.9% 43% 47% 10%
RRH Elections November 12–16, 2015 359 ± 5% 42% 48% 10%
JMC Analytics November 14–16, 2015 635 ± 3.9% 35% 51% 13%
JMC Analytics November 14–16, 2015 635 ± 4% 38% 54% 8%
Market Research Insight November 11–14, 2015 600 ± 4% 38% 53% 9%
Hayride/MarblePort November 11, 2015 978 ± 3.1% 42% 48% 10%
Market Research Insight November 11, 2015 600 ± 4% 38% 52% 10%
UNO Survey Research Center November 2–8, 2015 600 ± 4% 34% 56% 10%
Triumph Campaigns November 5, 2015 1,818 ± 3% 41% 49% 10%
WVLA/JMC Analytics October 28–31, 2015 600 ± 4% 32% 52% 16%
Market Research Insight October 27–28, 2015 600 ± 4.1% 38% 54% 8%
Anzalone Liszt Grove October 26–28, 2015 700 ± 3.7% 40% 52% 7%
KPLC/Raycom Media October 7–13, 2015 602 ± 4% 33% 52% ?%
The Advocate/WWL-TV September 20–23, 2015 800 ± 3.46% 41% 45% ?%
Public Policy Polling September 21–22, 2015 616 ± 4% 38% 50% 12%
Public Policy Polling September 25–28, 2014 1,141 ± 2.9% 50% 32% 18%
Public Policy Polling June 26–29, 2014 664 ± 3.8% 52% 30% 17%
The Kitchen Group* February 10–12, 2014 600 ± 4.2% 38% 32% 31%
Public Policy Polling February 6–9, 2014 635 ± 3.9% 51% 30% 19%

*Internal poll for the John Bel Edwards campaign

Hypothetical polling
Dardenne vs. Landrieu
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin of
error 		Jay
Dardenne (R) 		Mitch
Landrieu (D) 		Undecided
Public Policy Polling September 25–28, 2014 1,141 ± 2.9% 43% 39% 18%
Public Policy Polling June 26–29, 2014 664 ± 3.8% 43% 43% 15%
Public Policy Polling February 6–9, 2014 635 ± 3.9% 46% 36% 18%
Public Policy Polling August 16–19, 2013 721 ± 3.6% 35% 45% 20%
Public Policy Polling February 8–12, 2013 603 ± 4% 42% 44% 15%
Duke vs. Edwards
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin of
error 		David
Duke (R) 		Edwin
Edwards (D) 		Undecided
Public Policy Polling February 8–12, 2013 603 ± 4% 15% 62% 23%
Vitter vs. Landrieu
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin of
error 		David
Vitter (R) 		Mitch
Landrieu (D) 		Undecided
SM&O Research April 28–30, 2014 600 ± ? 52.8% 41.8% 5.5%
Gravis Marketing November 12–14, 2014 643 ± 4% 54% 36% 10%
Public Policy Polling September 25–28, 2014 1,141 ± 2.9% 47% 38% 14%
Gravis Marketing September 5–9, 2014 426 ± 5% 46% 44% 11%
Public Policy Polling June 26–29, 2014 664 ± 3.8% 48% 44% 8%
Public Policy Polling February 6–9, 2014 635 ± 3.9% 50% 37% 13%
Public Policy Polling August 16–19, 2013 721 ± 3.6% 42% 45% 14%
Harper Polling August 14–15, 2013 596 ± 4.01% 45% 43% 12%
Public Policy Polling February 8–12, 2013 603 ± 4% 44% 44% 13%
Magellan Strategies October 2–4, 2012 2,862 ± 1.9% 45.2% 39.8% 15%

Results

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Edwards' win was the first statewide win for Democrats in Louisiana since Mary Landrieu won a third term to the Senate in 2008. He performed surprisingly well for a Democratic candidate in Louisiana, given that the Cook PVI for the state was R+12 at the time of the election and most Republican candidates won in landslides in prior statewide elections.[citation needed] He performed especially well in Caddo Parish (home of Shreveport), East Baton Rouge Parish, (home of Baton Rouge), and in the reliably Democratic Orleans Parish, (home of New Orleans). Turnout was slightly higher in the November run-off than in the October jungle primary.

Louisiana gubernatorial election runoff, 2015[74]
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic John Bel Edwards 646,924 56.11%
Republican David Vitter 505,940 43.89%
Total votes 1,152,864 100%
Democratic gain from Republican

By congressional district

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Edwards won 5 of 6 congressional districts including 4 congress districts held by republican. [75]

District Edwards Vitter Representative
1st 43.30% 56.70% Steve Scalise
2nd 82.62% 17.38% Cedric Richmond
3rd 50.11% 49.89% Charles Boustany
4th 52.94% 47.06% John Fleming
5th 53.78% 46.22% Ralph Abraham
6th 53.83% 46.17% Garret Graves

See also

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References

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  1. ^ "John Bel Edwards Wins Louisiana Gubernatorial Election". The Huffington Post. ASSOCIATED PRESS. November 22, 2015.
  2. ^ "John Bel Edwards". National Governors Association. Retrieved December 29, 2023.
  3. ^ "$50M spent on Louisiana governor race, campaign records show". thenewsstar.com. Retrieved January 22, 2016.
  4. ^ a b Alford, Jeremy (May 6, 2013). "Saved by the Bel?". Gambit. Archived from the original on February 3, 2014. Retrieved May 13, 2013.
  5. ^ Avery, Cole (October 2, 2014). "Scott Angelle to run for governor in 2015". The Times-Picayune. Archived from the original on October 5, 2014. Retrieved October 2, 2014.
  6. ^ Adelson, Jeff (March 20, 2013). "Lt. Gov. Jay Dardenne 'intends' to run for governor in 2015". The Times-Picayune. Archived from the original on June 16, 2013. Retrieved May 13, 2013.
  7. ^ "David Vitter Announces Run for Governor". Roll Call. January 21, 2014. Archived from the original on January 22, 2014. Retrieved January 21, 2014.
  8. ^ O'Donoghue, Julia (April 9, 2015). "State Treasurer John Kennedy will seek reelection, not run for governor or attorney general". The Times-Picayune. Archived from the original on April 9, 2015. Retrieved April 9, 2015.
  9. ^ a b "Jefferson Parish Sheriff Newell Normand not running for governor, says poll in article is months old". NOLA.com. June 9, 2014. Archived from the original on July 17, 2014. Retrieved July 15, 2014.
  10. ^ "Ag commissioner Mike Strain says he won't run for Louisiana governor". Shreveport Times. July 1, 2013. Retrieved July 2, 2013.
  11. ^ "Alexander says he may run for Louisiana governor in 2015". The Town Talk. August 13, 2013. Archived from the original on August 15, 2013. Retrieved August 15, 2013.
  12. ^ Avery, Cole (December 10, 2014). "Angola warden Burl Cain mulling run for governor". The Times-Picayune. Archived from the original on January 8, 2015. Retrieved December 11, 2014.
  13. ^ Deslatte, Melinda (January 6, 2015). "Angola warden Burl Cain says he might run for La. governor". The Town Talk. Retrieved February 11, 2015.
  14. ^ "Long weighs bid for governor in 2015". The Advocate. August 11, 2012. Archived from the original on October 28, 2014. Retrieved January 30, 2013.
  15. ^ Greater New Orleans (December 12, 2013). "Buddy Roemer to spearhead long-term policy initiative ahead of 2015 election". NOLA.com. Archived from the original on December 16, 2013. Retrieved December 18, 2013.
  16. ^ Adelson, Jeff (February 10, 2013). "John Bel Edwards announces he is running for governor in 2015". The New Orleans Times-Picayune. Archived from the original on April 11, 2013. Retrieved February 21, 2013.
  17. ^ "Landrieu run again? 'Oh Lord, no'". Politico. December 10, 2014. Retrieved December 10, 2014.
  18. ^ James Carville (July 8, 2014). "James Carville: Four good reasons to watch Louisiana race this season". The Hill. Retrieved January 3, 2015.
  19. ^ Ballard, Mark (April 27, 2015). "Mitch Landrieu says commitment to New Orleans will keep him out of governor's race". The Advocate. Retrieved April 27, 2015.
  20. ^ "John Georges is 'monitoring' the Louisiana governor's race, The News-Star reports". Nola.com. August 5, 2015. Archived from the original on August 7, 2015. Retrieved August 5, 2015.
  21. ^ "Why governor's race could look radically different if New Orleans City Council President Jason Williams jumps in". August 7, 2015. Retrieved August 7, 2015.
  22. ^ "Louisiana governor's race may draw new Democratic candidate, according to LaPolitics". NOLA. May 22, 2015. Archived from the original on May 25, 2015. Retrieved May 28, 2015.
  23. ^ "Maginnis: Shaw's Bernhard may consider run for governor". Business Report. July 31, 2012. Archived from the original on October 16, 2013. Retrieved October 4, 2012.
  24. ^ "Bernhard Making Rounds for Governor". LA Politics. March 3, 2014. Retrieved March 5, 2014.
  25. ^ "Vitter, Nungesser and Young lead early 2015 poll for governor". Houma Today. November 24, 2014. Retrieved January 3, 2015.
  26. ^ Greater New Orleans (March 17, 2014). "It's official: Edwin Edwards is running for Congress". NOLA.com. Archived from the original on March 18, 2014. Retrieved March 20, 2014.
  27. ^ "Common Sense, Beryl Billiot Governor * 2015 Home".
  28. ^ "Natchitoches minister makes run for governor". KNOE.com. March 4, 2014. Archived from the original on October 28, 2014. Retrieved March 5, 2014.
  29. ^ url=http://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=218927.0
  30. ^ Alford, Jeremy (January 5, 2015). "So who isn't in the governor's race?". The Shreveport Times. Retrieved January 11, 2015.
  31. ^ "Hero general Honore considering run for Louisiana governor". WBRZ.com. November 14, 2012. Archived from the original on October 16, 2013. Retrieved January 30, 2013.
  32. ^ "Retired Louisiana Lt. General Russell Honore" may run for governor". KTAL-TV. February 19, 2014. Retrieved February 11, 2015.
  33. ^ Stewart, Robert (February 2, 2015). "Former Katrina pointman Honoré still mulling run for governor". Greater Baton Rouge Business Report. Retrieved February 11, 2015.
  34. ^ Litten, Kevin (July 1, 2015). "Russel Honore is not running for governor of Louisiana". The Times-Picayune. Archived from the original on July 2, 2015. Retrieved July 1, 2015.
  35. ^ "Terrebonne GOP endorses Angelle for Governor". Daily Comet.
  36. ^ "Vitter Angelle Endorsed By Republican Party of East Baton Rouge Parish". My ArkLaMiss.
  37. ^ "Livingston Parish Republican committee endorses only 1 of 5 incumbents running for council". The Advocate.
  38. ^ "Publisher Endorses Oct 24 Election". Business Report. October 13, 2015.
  39. ^ "The Hayride's Endorsement Symposium: The Governor's Race". The Hayride. October 19, 2015.
  40. ^ "Former Miss USA Ali Landry Makes Her Choice For Louisiana Governor". I Agree To See.
  41. ^ Crisp, Elizabeth (March 13, 2015). "Labor group endorses Edwards in governor's race". The Advocate. Retrieved April 9, 2015.
  42. ^ "Democratic State Central Committee Announces Endorsements for Governor and Secretary of State Candidates". Louisiana Democrats. March 30, 2015. Archived from the original on April 7, 2015. Retrieved April 9, 2015.
  43. ^ Sentell, Will (March 11, 2015). "Teachers' union backs John Bel Edwards for governor". The Advocate. Retrieved April 9, 2015.
  44. ^ Moreau, Andre (October 30, 2015). "Endorsements roll in for Vitter, Edwards during gubernatorial runoff". WAFB. Retrieved November 1, 2015.
  45. ^ "Troopers endorse Edwards for governor". thenewsstar.com. November 13, 2015.
  46. ^ Bridges, Tyler (December 15, 2015). "'You're crazy if you believe that': John Bel Edwards takes remarkable journey to improbable landslide in governor's race". The Advocate. Retrieved March 30, 2019.
  47. ^ Adelson, Jeff (October 30, 2015). "Mayor Landrieu offers low-key endorsement for John Bel Edwards". The Advocate. Retrieved November 2, 2015.
  48. ^ Hilburn, Greg (September 9, 2015). "Monroe mayor endorses Edwards for governor". The Times. Retrieved November 2, 2015.
  49. ^ Litten, Kevin (November 5, 2015). "Republican Jay Dardenne endorses Democrat John Bel Edwards for Louisiana governor". The Times-Picayune. Archived from the original on November 7, 2015. Retrieved November 5, 2015.
  50. ^ "Endorsement: John Bel Edwards for Louisiana governor". Gambit.
  51. ^ "Vitter Picks Up Endorsement from Gun Rights Group". myarklamiss.com. Retrieved May 30, 2015.
  52. ^ "Vitter lands LABI nod as expected". thenewsstar.com. November 12, 2015.
  53. ^ "David Vitter picks up gubernatorial endorsements from Louisiana congressmen Abraham, Fleming". The Advocate. Retrieved April 9, 2015.
  54. ^ "Boustany endorsing Vitter for La. governor". The Advertiser. Retrieved April 1, 2015.
  55. ^ a b "Boustany, Durel endorse Vitter in his run for governor". KATC.com. Archived from the original on April 2, 2015. Retrieved April 2, 2015.
  56. ^ "George H.W. Bush backs David Vitter in governor's race". The Daily Advertiser. The Associated Press. Archived from the original on April 9, 2015. Retrieved October 6, 2016.
  57. ^ O'Donoghue, Julia (April 9, 2015). "Jeb Bush endorses David Vitter in Louisiana governor's race". The Times-Picayune. Archived from the original on April 9, 2015. Retrieved April 9, 2015.
  58. ^ Boone, Timothy (February 18, 2015). "US Sen Bill Cassidy endorses David Vitter for governor". The Advocate. Retrieved April 9, 2015.
  59. ^ O'Donoghue, Julia (January 8, 2015). "Chris Christie sends fundraising letter for David Vitter". The Times-Picayune. Archived from the original on January 11, 2015. Retrieved February 10, 2015.
  60. ^ "Fleming endorses Vitter for Governor". KTBS-TV. February 19, 2015. Archived from the original on March 21, 2015. Retrieved March 21, 2015.
  61. ^ "Vitter picks up backing from treasurer in governor's race". WBRZ. Retrieved May 5, 2015.
  62. ^ Camia, Catalina (February 10, 2015). "Rand Paul endorses David Vitter for Louisiana governor". USA Today. Retrieved February 10, 2015.
  63. ^ Foster Campbell (D)
  64. ^ Newell Normand (R) 10%, Mike Strain (R) 4%
  65. ^ Rodney Alexander (R) 4%, Foster Campbell (D) 2%, John Georges (D) 2%, Jim Bernhard (D) 1%, Gerald Long (R) 1%, Newell Normand (R) 1%
  66. ^ John Georges (D) 6%, Mike Strain (R) 3.1%
  67. ^ "Louisiana Secretary of State - Election Results".
  68. ^ "Vitter, Edwards face-off in first televised gubernatorial runoff debate". WWLTV. November 11, 2015. Archived from the original on November 14, 2015. Retrieved November 11, 2015.
  69. ^ "Decision 2015: Runoff Early Voting "Post Game Report"". JMC Enterprises of Louisiana/JMC Analytics and Polling. November 15, 2015.
  70. ^ "Louisiana Governor: Vitter's Struggles Move this Race to Lean Democrat". The Cook Political Report.
  71. ^ "Gubernatorial Ratings | Inside Elections". www.insideelections.com.
  72. ^ "Larry J. Sabato's Crystal Ball » The Baffling Bayou". crystalball.centerforpolitics.org.
  73. ^ "Election Outlook: 2016 Race Ratings". Daily Kos. Retrieved October 21, 2015.
  74. ^ "Louisiana Secretary of State - Election Results".
  75. ^ "Our Campaigns".
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