User:Soosider3/sandbox
All polling companies listed here are members of the British Polling Council (BPC) and abide by its disclosure and sample size rules.
The dates for these opinion polls range from the 2019 general election on 12 December to the present day.
The next general election must take place by January 2025 as per provisions of the Dissolution and Calling of Parliament Act 2022.
Polls
[edit]Date(s) conducted |
Pollster | Client | Sample size |
SNP | Con | Lab | Lib Dems | Green | Reform | Others | Lead |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
26–27 Nov 2023 | Redfield & Wilton | 1,054 | 34% | 17% | 36% | 6% | 2% | 3% | 2% | 2% | |
20–26 Nov 2023 | Ipsos | 1,000 | 41% | 16% | 29% | 7% | 3% | 4% | 12% | ||
29–30 Oct 2023 | Redfield & Wilton | 1,092 | 32% | 23% | 32% | 8% | 2% | 2% | 3% | Tie | |
6–11 Oct 2023 | Savanta | The Scotsman | 1,002 | 35% | 19% | 35% | 6% | 4% | Tie | ||
2–6 Oct 2023 | YouGov | Fabians | 1,028 | 33% | 20% | 32% | 5% | 5% | 2% | 2% | 1 |
2–5 Oct 2023 | Panelbase | Sunday Times | 1,022 | 37% | 18%% | 33% | 8% | 4 | |||
4–5 Oct 2023 | Redfield & Wilton | 1,094 | 34% | 21% | 32% | 9% | 2% | 1% | 2 | ||
5–14 Sep 2023 | Opimium | Tony Blair Institute | 1,004 | 37% | 18% | 28% | 8% | 4% | 4% | 9 | |
8–13 Sep 2023 | YouGov | The Times | 1,000 | 38% | 16% | 27% | 7% | 6% | 4% | 2% | 11 |
2–4 Sep 2023 | Redfield & Wilton | 1,100 | 35% | 15% | 35% | 8% | 4% | 3 | Tie | ||
15–18 Aug 2023 | Survation | True North | 1,022 | 32% | 14% | 30% | 5% | 4% | 2 | ||
3–8 Aug 2023 | YouGov | 1,086 | 36% | 15% | 32% | 6% | 6% | 2% | 4 | ||
5–6 Aug 2023 | Redfield & Wilton | 1,050 | 37% | 17% | 34% | 7% | 2% | 1% | 3 | ||
1–2 Jul 2023 | Redfield & Wilton | 1,030 | 35% | 21% | 32% | 7% | 2% | 1% | 3 | ||
23–28 Jun 2023 | Survation | 1,863 | 37% | 17% | 34% | 9% | 4% | 3 | |||
12–15 Jun 2023 | Panelbase | The Sunday Times | 1,007 | 34% | 18% | 34% | 7% | 7% | Tie | ||
9–14 Jun 2023 | Savanta | The Scotsman | 1,018 | 38% | 17% | 34% | 7% | 4% | 4 | ||
3–5 Jun 2023 | Redfield & Wilton | N/A | 1,466 | 37% | 20% | 28% | 9% | 3% | 3% | 9 | |
15–21 May 2023 | Ipsos MORI | STV News | 1,090 | 41% | 16% | 29% | 6% | 3% | 4% | 12 | |
27 Apr – 3 May 2023 | Survation | True North | 1,009 | 38% | 18% | 31% | 9% | 2% | 4% | 7 | |
30 Apr – 1 May 2023 | Redfield & Wilton | N/A | 1,295 | 35% | 18% | 32% | 9% | 3% | 3% | 3 | |
17–20 Apr 2023 | YouGov | The Times | 1,032 | 37% | 17% | 28% | 8% | 5% | 2% | 9 | |
29 Mar – 3 Apr 2023 | Survation | N/A | 1,001 | 40% | 17% | 32% | 7% | 1% | 3% | 8 | |
31 Mar – 1 Apr 2023 | Redfield & Wilton | N/A | 1,000 | 36% | 19% | 31% | 10% | 2% | 3% | 5 | |
28–31 Mar 2023 | Savanta | The Scotsman | 1,009 | 39% | 19% | 33% | 6% | 4% | 6 | ||
28–30 Mar 2023 | Panelbase | The Sunday Times | 1,089 | 39% | 19% | 31% | 5% | 6% | 8 | ||
27 Mar 2023 | Humza Yousaf is elected leader of the Scottish National Party | ||||||||||
9–13 Mar 2023 | YouGov | Sky News | 1,002 | 39% | 16% | 29% | 6% | 6% | 3% | 10 | |
8–10 Mar 2023 | Survation | Diffley Partnership | 1,037 | 40% | 18% | 32% | 6% | 2% | 3% | 8 | |
7–10 Mar 2023 | Panelbase | Scot Goes Pop | 1,013 | 40% | 16% | 33% | 6% | 5% | 7 | ||
2–5 Mar 2023 | Redfield & Wilton | N/A | 1,050 | 39% | 22% | 29% | 6% | 2% | 3% | 10 | |
17–20 Feb 2023 | YouGov | The Times | 1,017 | 38% | 19% | 29% | 6% | 4% | 4% | 9 | |
15–17 Feb 2023 | Survation | N/A | 1,034 | 43% | 17% | 30% | 6% | 3% | 13 | ||
15–17 Feb 2023 | Savanta | The Scotsman | 1,004 | 42% | 17% | 32% | 6% | 3% | 10 | ||
1–7 Feb 2023 | Survation | N/A | TBA | 42% | 18% | 29% | 6% | 13 | |||
23–26 Jan 2023 | YouGov | The Sunday Times | 1,088 | 42% | 15% | 29% | 6% | 3% | 5% | 13 | |
10–12 Jan 2023 | Survation | True North | 1,002 | 43% | 18% | 29% | 7% | 2% | 14 | ||
22 Dec – 1 Jan 2023 | Survation | Scotland in Union | 1,025 | 44% | 16% | 31% | 6% | 1% | 13 | ||
16–21 Dec 2022 | Savanta | The Scotsman | 1,048 | 43% | 19% | 30% | 6% | 2% | 13 | ||
6–9 Dec 2022 | YouGov | The Times | 1,090 | 43% | 14% | 29% | 6% | 4% | 4% | 14 | |
28 Nov – 5 Dec 2022 | Ipsos MORI | STV News | 1,045 | 51% | 13% | 25% | 6% | 3% | 26 | ||
26–27 Nov 2022 | Redfield & Wilton | N/A | 1,000 | 41% | 16% | 31% | 8% | 2% | 3% | 10 | |
7–11 Oct 2022 | Panelbase | Alba Party | 1,000+ | 42% | 16% | 30% | 6% | 2% | 2% | 12 | |
5–7 Oct 2022 | Panelbase | The Sunday Times | 1,017 | 45% | 15% | 30% | 5% | 4% | 15 | ||
30 Sep – 4 Oct 2022 | YouGov | The Times | 1,067 | 45% | 12% | 31% | 7% | 3% | 2% | 14 | |
30 Sep – 4 Oct 2022 | ComRes | The Scotsman | 1,029 | 46% | 15% | 30% | 8% | 1% | 16 | ||
28–29 Sep 2022 | Survation | Scotland in Union | 1,011 | 44% | 15% | 31% | 6% | 4% | 13 | ||
17–19 Aug 2022 | Panelbase | The Sunday Times | 1,133 | 44% | 20% | 23% | 8% | 5% | 21 | ||
29 Jun – 1 Jul 2022 | Panelbase | The Sunday Times | 1,010 | 47% | 19% | 23% | 8% | 3% | 24 | ||
23–28 Jun 2022 | Savanta ComRes | The Scotsman | 1,029 | 46% | 18% | 25% | 8% | 3% | 21 | ||
23–29 May 2022 | Ipsos | STV News | 1,000 | 44% | 19% | 23% | 10% | 3% | 2% | 21 | |
18–23 May 2022 | YouGov | The Times | 1,115 | 46% | 19% | 22% | 6% | 3% | 3% | 24 | |
5 May 2022 | Local elections held in Scotland | ||||||||||
26–29 Apr 2022 | Panelbase | The Sunday Times | 1,009 | 42% | 21% | 24% | 7% | 5% | 18 | ||
25–31 Mar 2022 | BMG Research | The Herald | 1,012 | 42% | 19% | 26% | 6% | 4% | 2% | 16 | |
24–28 Mar 2022 | Survation | Ballot Box Scotland | 1,002 | 45% | 19% | 27% | 6% | 2% | 18 | ||
1–4 Feb 2022 | Panelbase | The Sunday Times | 1,128 | 44% | 20% | 24% | 8% | 2% | 2% | 20 | |
15–22 Dec 2021 | Opinium | Daily Record | 1,328 | 48% | 17% | 22% | 7% | 3% | 4% | 26 | |
18–22 Nov 2021 | YouGov | The Times | 1,060 | 48% | 20% | 18% | 6% | 3% | 4% | 28 | |
9–12 Nov 2021 | Panelbase | The Sunday Times | 1,000~ | 48% | 21% | 20% | 7% | 4% | 27 | ||
22–29 Nov 2021 | Ipsos MORI | STV News | 1,107 | 52% | 19% | 17% | 5% | 3% | 4% | 33 | |
22–28 Oct 2021 | Savanta ComRes | The Scotsman | 1,005 | 48% | 20% | 22% | 7% | 3% | 26 | ||
6–10 Sep 2021 | Panelbase | The Sunday Times | 2,003 | 46% | 22% | 18% | 7% | 4% | 3% | 24 | |
3–9 Sep 2021 | Savanta ComRes | The Scotsman | 1,016 | 48% | 22% | 20% | 7% | 3% | 26 | ||
2–8 Sep 2021 | Opinium | Sky News | 1,014 | 51% | 21% | 18% | 6% | 4% | 30 | ||
20 Aug 2021 | Alex Cole-Hamilton becomes leader of the Scottish Liberal Democrats | ||||||||||
16–24 Jun 2021 | Panelbase | The Sunday Times | 1,287 | 46% | 24% | 19% | 6% | 3% | 2% | 22 | |
6 May 2021 | 2021 Scottish Parliament election[1] | 47.7% | 21.9% | 21.6% | 6.9% | 1.3% | 0.6% | 25.8 |
Graphical Summary
[edit]SCOOP Polling
[edit]The Scottish Opinion Monitor (Scoop) is the Scottish Election Study's regular opinion poll of a representative sample of Scottish voting-age adults, running since December 2021. It is worded differently from mainstream polling and uses a slightly different methodology, Yougov have advised “… the voting intention results used slightly different wording and did not include YouGov’s standard turnout weighting and so should not be directly tracked to other YouGov voting intention figures as they are not identical. Instead, they should be tracked to other SCOOP voting intention polls conducted by the Scottish Election Study…“
Date(s) conducted |
Pollster | Client | Sample size |
SNP | Con | Lab | Lib Dems | Green | Others | Lead |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
20–25 Oct 2023 | YouGov | Scottish Elections Study | 1,200 | 24% | 12% | 28% | 4% | 3% | 3% | 4 |
9–13 Jun 2023 | YouGov | Scottish Elections Study | 1,200 | 24% | 12% | 26% | 5% | 3% | 2% | 2 |
10–15 Feb 2023 | YouGov | Scottish Elections Study | 1,239 | 29% | 12% | 27% | 4% | 2% | 2% | 2 |
22–25 Nov 2022 | YouGov | Scottish Elections Study | 1,239 | 31% | 11% | 23% | 6% | 3% | 2% | 8 |
Target seats
[edit]Below are listed all the constituencies which require a swing of less than 5% from the 2019 results to change hands. In calculating the swing required the assumption is that there is a direct swing from one party to another, therefore a 10% lead between winning party and second would require a 5% swing.
SNP targets
[edit]Rank | Constituency | Winning party 2019 | Swing to gain | SNP place 2019 | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Caithness, Sutherland and Easter Ross | Liberal Democrats | 0.32 | 2nd | |
2 | Moray | Conservative | 0.53 | 2nd | |
3 | West Aberdeenshire and Kincardine | Conservative} | 0.79 | 2nd | |
4 | North East Fife | Liberal Democrats | 1.43 | 2nd | |
5 | Dumfries and Galloway | Conservative | 1.75 | 2nd | |
6 | Edinburgh West | Liberal Democrats | 3.46 | 2nd | |
7 | Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale | Conservative | 3.85 | 2nd | |
8 | Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk | Conservative | 4.84 | 2nd | |
9 | Banff and Buchan | Conservative | 4.87 | 2nd |
Conservative targets
[edit]Rank | Constituency | Winning party 2019 | Swing to gain | Con place 2019 | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Gordon | SNP | 0.73 | 2nd | |
2 | Ayr, Carrick and Cumnock | SNP | 2.50 | 2nd | |
3 | Ochil and South Perthshire | SNP | 3.89 | 2nd | |
4 | Argyll and Bute | SNP | 4.28 | 2nd | |
5 | Aberdeen South | SNP | 4.37 | 2nd | |
6 | Angus | SNP | 4.40 | 2nd | |
7 | Lanark and Hamilton East | SNP | 4.89 | 2nd | |
8 | East Renfrewshire | SNP | 4.90 | 2nd |
Labour targets
[edit]Rank | Constituency | Winning party 2019 | Swing to gain | Labour place 2019 | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Kirkcaldy and Cowdenbeath | SNP | 1.32 | 2nd | |
2 | East Lothian | SNP | 3.32 | 2nd | |
3 | Glasgow North East | SNP | 3.75 | 2nd | |
4 | Rutherglen and Hamilton West | SNP | 4.86 | 2nd |
Liberal Democrat targets
[edit]Rank | Constituency | Winning party 2019 | Swing to gain | Lib Dem place 2019 | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | East Dunbartonshire | SNP | 0.14 | 2nd |
See also
[edit]
Notes
[edit]References
[edit]- ^ "Full votes and seats by party etc - SPE21". Electoral Management Board for Scotland. 9 May 2021. Archived from the original on 2 August 2021. Retrieved 2 August 2021.
Category:Politics of Scotland Category:Opinion polling in Scotland Category:General elections in Scotland to the Parliament of the United Kingdom