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All polling companies listed here are members of the British Polling Council (BPC) and abide by its disclosure and sample size rules.

The dates for these opinion polls range from the 2019 general election on 12 December to the present day.

The next general election must take place by January 2025 as per provisions of the Dissolution and Calling of Parliament Act 2022.

Polls

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Date(s)
conducted
Pollster Client Sample
size
SNP Con Lab Lib Dems Green Reform Others Lead
26–27 Nov 2023 Redfield & Wilton 1,054 34% 17% 36% 6% 2% 3% 2% 2%
20–26 Nov 2023 Ipsos 1,000 41% 16% 29% 7% 3% 4% 12%
29–30 Oct 2023 Redfield & Wilton 1,092 32% 23% 32% 8% 2% 2% 3% Tie
6–11 Oct 2023 Savanta The Scotsman 1,002 35% 19% 35% 6% 4% Tie
2–6 Oct 2023 YouGov Fabians 1,028 33% 20% 32% 5% 5% 2% 2% 1
2–5 Oct 2023 Panelbase Sunday Times 1,022 37% 18%% 33% 8% 4
4–5 Oct 2023 Redfield & Wilton 1,094 34% 21% 32% 9% 2% 1% 2
5–14 Sep 2023 Opimium Tony Blair Institute 1,004 37% 18% 28% 8% 4% 4% 9
8–13 Sep 2023 YouGov The Times 1,000 38% 16% 27% 7% 6% 4% 2% 11
2–4 Sep 2023 Redfield & Wilton 1,100 35% 15% 35% 8% 4% 3 Tie
15–18 Aug 2023 Survation True North 1,022 32% 14% 30% 5% 4% 2
3–8 Aug 2023 YouGov 1,086 36% 15% 32% 6% 6% 2% 4
5–6 Aug 2023 Redfield & Wilton 1,050 37% 17% 34% 7% 2% 1% 3
1–2 Jul 2023 Redfield & Wilton 1,030 35% 21% 32% 7% 2% 1% 3
23–28 Jun 2023 Survation 1,863 37% 17% 34% 9% 4% 3
12–15 Jun 2023 Panelbase The Sunday Times 1,007 34% 18% 34% 7% 7% Tie
9–14 Jun 2023 Savanta The Scotsman 1,018 38% 17% 34% 7% 4% 4
3–5 Jun 2023 Redfield & Wilton N/A 1,466 37% 20% 28% 9% 3% 3% 9
15–21 May 2023 Ipsos MORI STV News 1,090 41% 16% 29% 6% 3% 4% 12
27 Apr3 May 2023 Survation True North 1,009 38% 18% 31% 9% 2% 4% 7
30 Apr1 May 2023 Redfield & Wilton N/A 1,295 35% 18% 32% 9% 3% 3% 3
17–20 Apr 2023 YouGov The Times 1,032 37% 17% 28% 8% 5% 2% 9
29 Mar3 Apr 2023 Survation N/A 1,001 40% 17% 32% 7% 1% 3% 8
31 Mar1 Apr 2023 Redfield & Wilton N/A 1,000 36% 19% 31% 10% 2% 3% 5
28–31 Mar 2023 Savanta The Scotsman 1,009 39% 19% 33% 6% 4% 6
28–30 Mar 2023 Panelbase The Sunday Times 1,089 39% 19% 31% 5% 6% 8
27 Mar 2023 Humza Yousaf is elected leader of the Scottish National Party
9–13 Mar 2023 YouGov Sky News 1,002 39% 16% 29% 6% 6% 3% 10
8–10 Mar 2023 Survation Diffley Partnership 1,037 40% 18% 32% 6% 2% 3% 8
7–10 Mar 2023 Panelbase Scot Goes Pop 1,013 40% 16% 33% 6% 5% 7
2–5 Mar 2023 Redfield & Wilton N/A 1,050 39% 22% 29% 6% 2% 3% 10
17–20 Feb 2023 YouGov The Times 1,017 38% 19% 29% 6% 4% 4% 9
15–17 Feb 2023 Survation N/A 1,034 43% 17% 30% 6% 3% 13
15–17 Feb 2023 Savanta The Scotsman 1,004 42% 17% 32% 6% 3% 10
1–7 Feb 2023 Survation N/A TBA 42% 18% 29% 6% 13
23–26 Jan 2023 YouGov The Sunday Times 1,088 42% 15% 29% 6% 3% 5% 13
10–12 Jan 2023 Survation True North 1,002 43% 18% 29% 7% 2% 14
22 Dec1 Jan 2023 Survation Scotland in Union 1,025 44% 16% 31% 6% 1% 13
16–21 Dec 2022 Savanta The Scotsman 1,048 43% 19% 30% 6% 2% 13
6–9 Dec 2022 YouGov The Times 1,090 43% 14% 29% 6% 4% 4% 14
28 Nov5 Dec 2022 Ipsos MORI STV News 1,045 51% 13% 25% 6% 3% 26
26–27 Nov 2022 Redfield & Wilton N/A 1,000 41% 16% 31% 8% 2% 3% 10
7–11 Oct 2022 Panelbase Alba Party 1,000+ 42% 16% 30% 6% 2% 2% 12
5–7 Oct 2022 Panelbase The Sunday Times 1,017 45% 15% 30% 5% 4% 15
30 Sep4 Oct 2022 YouGov The Times 1,067 45% 12% 31% 7% 3% 2% 14
30 Sep4 Oct 2022 ComRes The Scotsman 1,029 46% 15% 30% 8% 1% 16
28–29 Sep 2022 Survation Scotland in Union 1,011 44% 15% 31% 6% 4% 13
17–19 Aug 2022 Panelbase The Sunday Times 1,133 44% 20% 23% 8% 5% 21
29 Jun1 Jul 2022 Panelbase The Sunday Times 1,010 47% 19% 23% 8% 3% 24
23–28 Jun 2022 Savanta ComRes The Scotsman 1,029 46% 18% 25% 8% 3% 21
23–29 May 2022 Ipsos STV News 1,000 44% 19% 23% 10% 3% 2% 21
18–23 May 2022 YouGov The Times 1,115 46% 19% 22% 6% 3% 3% 24
5 May 2022 Local elections held in Scotland
26–29 Apr 2022 Panelbase The Sunday Times 1,009 42% 21% 24% 7% 5% 18
25–31 Mar 2022 BMG Research The Herald 1,012 42% 19% 26% 6% 4% 2% 16
24–28 Mar 2022 Survation Ballot Box Scotland 1,002 45% 19% 27% 6% 2% 18
1–4 Feb 2022 Panelbase The Sunday Times 1,128 44% 20% 24% 8% 2% 2% 20
15–22 Dec 2021 Opinium Daily Record 1,328 48% 17% 22% 7% 3% 4% 26
18–22 Nov 2021 YouGov The Times 1,060 48% 20% 18% 6% 3% 4% 28
9–12 Nov 2021 Panelbase The Sunday Times 1,000~ 48% 21% 20% 7% 4% 27
22–29 Nov 2021 Ipsos MORI STV News 1,107 52% 19% 17% 5% 3% 4% 33
22–28 Oct 2021 Savanta ComRes The Scotsman 1,005 48% 20% 22% 7% 3% 26
6–10 Sep 2021 Panelbase The Sunday Times 2,003 46% 22% 18% 7% 4% 3% 24
3–9 Sep 2021 Savanta ComRes The Scotsman 1,016 48% 22% 20% 7% 3% 26
2–8 Sep 2021 Opinium Sky News 1,014 51% 21% 18% 6% 4% 30
20 Aug 2021 Alex Cole-Hamilton becomes leader of the Scottish Liberal Democrats
16–24 Jun 2021 Panelbase The Sunday Times 1,287 46% 24% 19% 6% 3% 2% 22
6 May 2021 2021 Scottish Parliament election[1] 47.7% 21.9% 21.6% 6.9% 1.3% 0.6% 25.8

Graphical Summary

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LlA9C--polling-in-scotland-for-uk-general-election- (5).png

SCOOP Polling

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The Scottish Opinion Monitor (Scoop) is the Scottish Election Study's regular opinion poll of a representative sample of Scottish voting-age adults, running since December 2021. It is worded differently from mainstream polling and uses a slightly different methodology, Yougov have advised “… the voting intention results used slightly different wording and did not include YouGov’s standard turnout weighting and so should not be directly tracked to other YouGov voting intention figures as they are not identical. Instead, they should be tracked to other SCOOP voting intention polls conducted by the Scottish Election Study…“

Date(s)
conducted
Pollster Client Sample
size
SNP Con Lab Lib Dems Green Others Lead
20–25 Oct 2023 YouGov Scottish Elections Study 1,200 24% 12% 28% 4% 3% 3% 4
9–13 Jun 2023 YouGov Scottish Elections Study 1,200 24% 12% 26% 5% 3% 2% 2
10–15 Feb 2023 YouGov Scottish Elections Study 1,239 29% 12% 27% 4% 2% 2% 2
22–25 Nov 2022 YouGov Scottish Elections Study 1,239 31% 11% 23% 6% 3% 2% 8

Target seats

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Below are listed all the constituencies which require a swing of less than 5% from the 2019 results to change hands. In calculating the swing required the assumption is that there is a direct swing from one party to another, therefore a 10% lead between winning party and second would require a 5% swing.

SNP targets

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Rank Constituency Winning party 2019 Swing to gain SNP place 2019
1 Caithness, Sutherland and Easter Ross Liberal Democrats 0.32 2nd
2 Moray Conservative 0.53 2nd
3 West Aberdeenshire and Kincardine Conservative} 0.79 2nd
4 North East Fife Liberal Democrats 1.43 2nd
5 Dumfries and Galloway Conservative 1.75 2nd
6 Edinburgh West Liberal Democrats 3.46 2nd
7 Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale Conservative 3.85 2nd
8 Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk Conservative 4.84 2nd
9 Banff and Buchan Conservative 4.87 2nd

Conservative targets

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Rank Constituency Winning party 2019 Swing to gain Con place 2019
1 Gordon SNP 0.73 2nd
2 Ayr, Carrick and Cumnock SNP 2.50 2nd
3 Ochil and South Perthshire SNP 3.89 2nd
4 Argyll and Bute SNP 4.28 2nd
5 Aberdeen South SNP 4.37 2nd
6 Angus SNP 4.40 2nd
7 Lanark and Hamilton East SNP 4.89 2nd
8 East Renfrewshire SNP 4.90 2nd

Labour targets

[edit]
Rank Constituency Winning party 2019 Swing to gain Labour place 2019
1 Kirkcaldy and Cowdenbeath SNP 1.32 2nd
2 East Lothian SNP 3.32 2nd
3 Glasgow North East SNP 3.75 2nd
4 Rutherglen and Hamilton West SNP 4.86 2nd

Liberal Democrat targets

[edit]
Rank Constituency Winning party 2019 Swing to gain Lib Dem place 2019
1 East Dunbartonshire SNP 0.14 2nd

See also

[edit]


Notes

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References

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  1. ^ "Full votes and seats by party etc - SPE21". Electoral Management Board for Scotland. 9 May 2021. Archived from the original on 2 August 2021. Retrieved 2 August 2021.

Category:Politics of Scotland Category:Opinion polling in Scotland Category:General elections in Scotland to the Parliament of the United Kingdom