Talk:Polymarket

Request edits for March 2024

Hi editors. This article is very short and lacks a lot of information about the company. I have several ideas for adding sources and content to improve the page. I work for Polymarket and understand that I can’t do this myself. I’d appreciate anyone who has the time to look these over.

1. Please add an Infobox to the page:

Polymarket

Original author(s)
Developer(s)	Shayne Coplan
Platform	Ethereum
Available in	English
Type	Prediction Market Platform
License	Free software (GPL)
Website	polymarket.com

 Done Encoded  Talk 💬 07:22, 1 May 2024 (UTC)

2. Please add a sentence to become the new third sentence in the Lead paragraph:

Polymarket is a prediction market platform built on the Ethereum blockchain.

Reason for the change:

The current Lead paragraph is missing fundamental information about how the company operates. The suggested addition is based on reporting in a high quality source.

 Done

3. Please add a new section called “History”directly after the first paragraph:

“History”

Founded by Shayne Coplan, Polymarket launched in 2020 as an online prediction market platform that would allow users to trade on the outcome of world events. The company was founded on the idea that by providing real time forecasts on events as they unfolded, Polymarket could function as an alternative to traditional news sources.

Reason for the change:

“History” is a standard feature in Wikipedia articles and the suggested first paragraph uses reliable reporting to provide important details about the company’s founding and purpose.

 Not done WP:PROMO Encoded  Talk 💬 07:23, 1 May 2024 (UTC)

@Encoded:Thanks for your help with these updates. Here’s a revised suggestion for the first sentence of the first paragraph of the History section. Based on your feedback, I stripped the language down to key information about the company that is currently missing from the section.

Polymarket was founded by Shayne Coplan in 2020 as an online prediction market platform that would allow users to trade on the outcome of world events.

Thanks for looking this over.Mathlover111 (talk) 18:17, 25 June 2024 (UTC) Mathlover111 (talk) 18:17, 25 June 2024 (UTC)

 Done Encoded  Talk 💬 19:15, 25 June 2024 (UTC)

4. Please add a paragraph to become the second paragraph of the newly created History section:

Coplan designed Polymarket on the Ethereum blockchain network.

Reason for the change:

The suggested paragraph uses reporting from a reliable media source to describe a fundamental aspect of the company’s founding.

 Done Encoded  Talk 💬 07:27, 1 May 2024 (UTC)

5. Please move what should now be the fourth paragraph of the newly created History section to become the second paragraph of the History section:

In January 2022, the platform was fined US$1.4 million by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, alongside receiving a cease and desist order, following regulation violations including not registering as a Swap Execution Facility.

Reason for the change:

The event described happens earlier in the company History than the event described in the current third paragraph. Moving it brings the section into chronological order.

 Done Encoded  Talk 💬 07:27, 1 May 2024 (UTC)

6. Please add a paragraph to become the new fourth paragraph of the History section proposed in item 3:

In May 2022, Polymarket appointed J. Christopher Giancarlo, a former Commissioner of the CFTC, as chairman of its advisory board.

Reason for the change:

The suggested paragraph describes developments in the company’s history that were covered in a prominent news source.

 Done Encoded  Talk 💬 07:27, 1 May 2024 (UTC)

7. Please replace what should now be the fifth paragraph of the newly created History section:

Events on which bets have been placed included the outcome of the Titan submersible investigation and the likelihood of Russia utilising nuclear weapons.

 Done Encoded  Talk 💬 07:27, 1 May 2024 (UTC)

Please replace with:

In June 2023, Mother Jones reported that interest around the company reported that interest around the company increased after a tweet about the outcome of the Titan submersible went viral; the premise of the bet was whether or not the submersible would be found by a certain date rather than a wager on the fate of the passengers. Polymarket had over 60 markets available at the time of the submersible wager, including the outcome of the Guatemalan presidential election and the likelihood of Twitter suing Meta, and the likelihood that Russia would use nuclear force.

Reason for the change:

The existing paragraph is missing important chronological detail and is written in the present tense. The suggested replacement uses reporting in highly reputable news sources to place the events in chronological order and expands details around the event.

 Done Encoded  Talk 💬 07:27, 1 May 2024 (UTC)

Thanks very much for reviewing these suggestions. Mathlover111 (talk) 16:38, 24 April 2024 (UTC) Mathlover111 (talk) 16:38, 24 April 2024 (UTC)

References

Updates for June 2024

Hi editors. This page is missing basic biographical details like the name of founder and date of founding. I have some suggestions for adding that information as well as other updates. I work for Polymarket and won’t make these edits myself. I appreciate any editor who has time to take a look. Thanks.

@Encoded: Thanks for your help with the last round of updates. Wondering if you’d like to look these over as well?

1. In the History section, please add a sentence to become the second sentence of the first paragraph:

According to the CTFC, Polymarket offered “substantial cooperation” throughout the investigation which resulted in the company receiving a lower fine.

Reason for the change:

The sentence adds context around the company’s involvement in the investigation which was noteworthy enough to be reported in a leading media source.

 Done jbening  Talk 💬 Jbening (talk) Jbening (talk) 15:33, 10 July 2024 (UTC)

2. Please add a paragraph to become the new fourth paragraph of the History section: In May 2024, it was announced that Polymarket had raised $70 million across two rounds of funding. The rounds included investments from Vitalik Buterin, the co-founder of Ethereum, and Founders Fund, a venture capital firm founded by Peter Theil.

Reason for the change:

The paragraph adds information about the company’s history as reported in two high profile media sources that covered the development.

 Done jbening  Talk 💬 Jbening (talk) Jbening (talk) 15:33, 10 July 2024 (UTC)

3. Please add a paragraph to become the new fifth paragraph of the History section: In 2024, the outcome of U.S. elections became the most active market on the platform with over $125 million wagered on the presidential race between Donald Trump and Joe Biden.

Reason for the change:

Reporting on previous wagers is already included in the article. Adding information is an update to the section based on reporting in high quality media sources.

 Done jbening  Talk 💬 Jbening (talk) Jbening (talk) 15:33, 10 July 2024 (UTC)

4. Please remove the warning template from the top of the article. Reason for the change:

With the addition of the new sources included in these edit requests, Polymarket has been the subject of in-depth feature coverage in NBC News, Bloomberg Forbes, and an article in Mother Jones. (I have included extended quotations from the paywalled Bloomberg article to give editors a sense of the coverage) As such, the article meets the notability guidelines for companies.

 Done jbening  Talk 💬 Jbening (talk) 16:41, 5 July 2024 (UTC)

@Jbening: Thanks so much for addressing the notability issue. Would you mind taking a look at the other three edits I suggested? Mathlover111 (talk) 19:34, 8 July 2024 (UTC)

Thank you for taking the time to look over these updates.Mathlover111 (talk) 18:18, 25 June 2024 (UTC) Mathlover111 (talk) 18:18, 25 June 2024 (UTC)

 Already done by jbening, closing the request. Rusalkii (talk) 23:01, 12 July 2024 (UTC)

References

accuracy

From a quick search on Bing lead me to find this source and it may be useful to help expand this article

https://money.usnews.com/investing/articles/what-are-prediction-markets-predictit-polymarket-and-kalshi#:~:text=By%20tapping%20into%20the%20knowledge%20base%20and%20informed,accurate%20than%20any%20relatively%20small%20number%20of%20experts.

the question is is it reliable? if so we can draft up a section about polymarkets accuracy.

thanks

Daisytheduck ^{quack quack} 10:17, 3 September 2024 (UTC)

Manipulation attempt

rajivsethi.substack.com/p/a-failed-attempt-at-prediction-market is pretty interesting (you'll have to paste the url since I don't seem to be able to post actual links). Apparently there are derivative contracts indexed to who is leading on the Polymarket presidential election market for the majority of a specific 3-hour period. So just before that time (last Friday, Sept 6), Kamala Harris was a little bit behind Donald Trump, so some traders dumped a pile of money (millions) into Polymarket to temporarily nudge Harris into the lead at just the right moment. That in turn was supposed to make the derivative contracts go from near-worthless to highly valuable. The attempt didn't quite work because they didn't hold the edge for quite long enough, or something like that. But it shows that the markets can be moved around, and since their predictions can be self-fulfilling, it is a form of election manipulation as well. I think the incident should be mentioned in the Polymarket article. I think it is ok to cite Sethi's substack post for this (he is an economics professor who works in the area of information and beliefs (economics.barnard.edu/profiles/rajiv-sethi). There may be some other sources by now too (I haven't looked). 2601:644:8581:75B0:0:0:0:8C8A (talk) 09:37, 10 September 2024 (UTC)

As of now there is little evidence that this is happening. All that’s in the article is a WSJ article behind a paywall. LuxembourgLover (talk) 18:11, 18 October 2024 (UTC)

Polygon

I added a mention of Polymarket from Polygon (blockchain), which was reverted citing concerns with the sources [1] [2]. To me this seems like an uncontroversial statement which might not even require a source. Any input on that, or help finding a better source, would be welcome. — xDanielx ^T/_C\^R 23:11, 21 October 2024 (UTC)

Polymarket a "betting site"

I tried to include the word "bet" into the lead, but it was removed. I have put the "bet" word back. But I am thinking, the word "bet", "betting", or "betting site" may actually belong in the first sentence, and perhaps the short description. https://www.reuters.com/world/us/mystery-overseas-account-increases-its-trump-bids-polymarket-betting-site-2024-10-21/ and many others use gambling terms including "wagers". The lead to this article reads like it is describing the New York Stock Exchange, when (correct me if I'm wrong) it's pretty much an on-line bookmaker. Marcus Markup (talk) 08:59, 22 October 2024 (UTC)

Pinging @Castncoot: who edited it. I wonder if your lede edit was just about avoiding the wordiness of "also known as"? Would everyone be okay with "traders can place bets"? — xDanielx ^T/_C\^R 15:01, 22 October 2024 (UTC)

 Done Castncoot (talk) 05:57, 23 October 2024 (UTC)

Fraud?

@PieterTenHag: could you please provide sources for the fraud content you added? Keep in mind that our rules prevent us from including material based on original research, or sources that aren't deemed reliable, even if the statements have merit.

My cursory search didn't turn up any suitable sources, so I'm going to revert for now, but we can potentially add it back if sources are available which meet our requirements. — xDanielx ^T/_C\^R 17:48, 28 October 2024 (UTC)

I see a source was added, but user-generated content generally isn't considered an acceptable source per our guidelines. This will probably need to be removed unless/until it gets picked up by a reputable news or other reliable source. — xDanielx ^T/_C\^R 17:57, 28 October 2024 (UTC)

I attempted to revert, however Pieter quickly undid my revert. I agree that the source is invalid. - Ezypzy (talk) 18:00, 28 October 2024 (UTC)

Too much detail on the weeks before the 2024 election.

This is an article about the platform Polimarkets, not about all the people involved in predicting the outcome of the 2024 election. A little basics about the election would be good to put in, but it would make more sense to add it after, and keep it roughly the same level of detail as the section about the Titanic submersible, and other events that are discussed.

As it is it reads like we've switched topics and here explaining why Poly isn't really right about Trump winning. While that's interesting, it's speculative. Better to write about this after the election concludes than try to stay up with the daily fluctuations. Write about Poli, not about Trump vs. Kamala. The last two paragraphs should be deleted, or at least trimmed way down to stay on the actual topic of the article and make them able to survive without hourly updates. . ZeroXero (talk) 00:41, 2 November 2024 (UTC)

I consider this a particularly notable event involving the firm in a very significant subject matter that is not referencing daily fluctuations or speculation. I see no cause to wait until after the election to include reliably sourced content. make them able to survive gives me pause as to why removal of the content is suggested. soibangla (talk) 01:22, 2 November 2024 (UTC)

It does need work. For example, currently, it looks like the encyclopedia is promoting a left-wing conspiracy theory when it gives prominence to the claim that Trump's 60% odds of winning was due to $30 million dollars worth of bets... this, in a $2.7 billion dollar market. A casual reader might think that such a paltry sum continues to affect the market, and continues to account for the 60% or so odds he continues to have today... its prominence in the article just makes us look dumb. Marcus Markup (talk) 03:17, 2 November 2024 (UTC)

I am not familiar with Forbes, WSJ and CNBC promoting left-wing conspiracy theories and I am confident our text is faithful to their reporting, including that the large bets were not necessarily nefarious and that Poly found no manipulation. That said, the event is notable in the context of an incipient election, with a deeply involved and influential person saying betting markets are "More accurate than polls, as actual money is on the line."[[3] Consequently I do not see the encyclopedia is promoting a left-wing conspiracy theory and I find the current content is fine. soibangla (talk) 03:46, 2 November 2024 (UTC)

Agreed. Info about the total amounts wagered is interesting; about whether certain large bets might move the market is borderline; but discussion of odds and outcomes is irrelevant. We wouldn't deem it worthy of coverage if William Hill had Gentleman George on 5:1 to win, then he did... cagliost (talk) 22:04, 5 November 2024 (UTC)

• Polymarket played an important role in the 2024 US Presidential election. It is important and due. Need to minimize it in the LEAD however, as it is a bit too much current events. Jtbobwaysf (talk) 21:26, 6 November 2024 (UTC)

  KA. Gee wizz brown nose much. What they are doing is wrong and the good ole boy club will fall because there are too many people to trust and Trump should trust no one. And anyone trusted by Trump should not cry once he uses them for his scapegoat. Where is his 1st wife again? betrayal. He is on the Darkside, luke. 2603:8001:3340:FD00:A111:259B:4F01:40CF (talk) 03:47, 15 November 2024 (UTC)

Better source for FBI raid?

Is there a BLP-compliant source for the FBI raid? I looked a bit and saw a lot of press, but nothing clearly-reliable yet. There's WSJ but it's on a live blog. Cc @Codyave:, though of course anyone could help find a better source. — xDanielx ^T/_C\^R 22:09, 13 November 2024 (UTC)

The link that you shared doesnt look like a blog to me. Looks totally BLP RS compliant to me. We also have Reuters, forbes, and wsj (maybe this is the same wsj as you shared, but it not part of livecoverage). Thanks! Jtbobwaysf (talk) 23:10, 13 November 2024 (UTC)

Yeah looks good now, thank you! — xDanielx ^T/_C\^R 01:36, 14 November 2024 (UTC)