Talk:Opinion polling for the next Israeli legislative election/Archive 1

Archive 1

Otzma is listed here as not being a part of the government for some reason

RZP is highlighted blue but otzma is not 46.120.97.141 (talk) 20:33, 7 February 2023 (UTC)

 Done. Totalstgamer (talk) 21:15, 7 February 2023 (UTC)

Semi-protected edit request on 6 April 2023

Please update the local regression chart to reflect latest polls. Forever906 (talk) 16:23, 6 April 2023 (UTC)

 Not done: it's not clear what changes you want to be made. Please mention the specific changes in a "change X to Y" format and provide a reliable source if appropriate. M.Bitton (talk) 21:09, 6 April 2023 (UTC)

Logos

@Basque mapping I think the logos help telling the parties apart, even if they are in Hebrew or Arabic, due to their role in the partisan "brand". Carmon456

I'm gonna change it so it will abide by the NFCC.

(talk) 21:32, 12 May 2023 (UTC)

I am a bit clueless here... I'll try to see exactly how it can be done later on Carmon456 (talk) 21:43, 12 May 2023 (UTC)

Polling

Someone needs to fix the polling columns, I'm not really sure how to do it myself, but it's all messed up with the most recent poll. DrBeat1 (talk) 22:38, 22 May 2023 (UTC)

Should we include more info about polls

Perhaps we should note (when provided) the number of participants polled and the margin-of-error given. These are commonly listed alongside polls SecretName101 (talk) 05:38, 25 May 2023 (UTC)

Broken table on mobile phone using Wikipedia app

Please see Wikipedia:Help desk § Broken table on mobile phone using Wikipedia app. Misha Wolf (talk) 13:28, 25 May 2023 (UTC)

PS: I've just noticed the comment titled "Polling" above. I wonder whether that relates to the same problem. Misha Wolf (talk) 13:29, 25 May 2023 (UTC)

Color Overlay in Polls

How do I add a color overlay (light blue for National Unity, dark blue for Likud) in the Opinion Polls section when one of them lead their respective polls? Does anyone know?

Poll leaders (Gantz, Netanyahu) etc have color overlays when they lead polls, how do I add this in manually? Thanks Giantsfann48 (talk) 15:15, 2 June 2023 (UTC)

Approval polling - portraits and offices held

The new portraits are a bit of a mess. They clutter the page, they repeat several times and provide the sort of context wikilinks should provide. I reckon they should be removed and the section should return to the way it previously was. Totalstgamer (talk) 13:46, 13 May 2023 (UTC)

I agree. The previous layout was better. David O. Johnson (talk) 14:36, 13 May 2023 (UTC)

I frankly also dislike the pollster color-coding (its pointless for sorting polls and clutters the screen) but that's for another discussion. Totalstgamer (talk) 15:35, 13 May 2023 (UTC)

Since i wanna remove it, i'm gonna mention @Carmon456: Since i think you should be involved in this. Totalstgamer (talk) 11:12, 19 May 2023 (UTC)

Regarding the pictures - The faces, but more importantly the description beneath them, are there to give contexts to NON-Israelis.

Regarding the color-coding - I don't think there is a clear rule here. It was used in Opinion polling for the 2022 French presidential election and I thought it would be helpful for both Israelis and non-Israelis. They are there to show biases or a lack of polls in a particular period/subject.

@Totalstgamer Carmon456 (talk) 20:15, 19 May 2023 (UTC)

When it comes to the faces, that's what wiki-links exist for. Wikipedia pages don't exist in a void, and more information is available in its respective pages, especially given that in the existing version of the page, certain figures have their information repeated twice, and with large portraits that take up a decent chunk of the page. When it comes to the color coding, ive only ever seen it used in the french presidential, and i think they're more of a visual clutter than they are a bias-spotting benefit. I still think they should be removed. (not forgetting to mention @Carmon456:) Totalstgamer (talk) 22:22, 19 May 2023 (UTC)

I think the pollster colors are okay. I've kind of turned around on them, but i still think the politician portraits and descriptions should be removed. They're still an unnecessary clutter and more than negated by the existence of wikilinks. @David O. Johnson and Carmon456: I'm pinging you to get your opinion on this. Totalstgamer (talk) 09:20, 18 June 2023 (UTC)

I think the headshots are unnecessary; the prose looks cleaner and is less distracting. David O. Johnson (talk) 19:48, 18 June 2023 (UTC)

A mistake found

Wrong results for 9 Jul 23 Kantar poll. Source page gives actual result of 4 seats for MERETZ, but wikipedia page shows 5. 46.117.226.80 (talk) 20:51, 25 July 2023 (UTC)

 Done ערן117 (talk) 11:46, 28 July 2023 (UTC)

Approval ratings

The "other" approval ratings are not elected. How are they relevant to the election? I think the whole "other" section should be removed. ערן117 (talk) 09:44, 13 May 2023 (UTC)

I'm with you here Carmon456 (talk) 20:05, 19 May 2023 (UTC)

 Done ערן117 (talk) 11:53, 28 July 2023 (UTC)

Israel Hayom poll

@Uri Argaman, the results you entered for Labor and Balad in the Israel Hayom poll are different from the reference. Do you have another reference for these figures? ערן117 (talk) 03:08, 30 July 2023 (UTC)

No, they reflect the figures, which the source states in mandates (*1.2) instead of percentages as written in the table, so I converted back to percentages by dividing by 1.2. Note that if the meaning was percentages, Labor would clear the the threshold with 3.3% and written as 4 with other parties getting less mandates as a result - making clear the intention is 3.3 mandate-equivalents, and there's no reason to assume inconsistency with the way they chose to write Balad. They also refrainde from using the "%" symbol. Uri Argaman (talk) 09:32, 30 July 2023 (UTC)

Poll for Yoav Gallant seems off

The latest poll for Gallant shows 40% approval 35% disapproval and 35% undecided. The 35% disaproval is also highlighted. Perhaps a typo was made in entering the aproval. In any case, these add up to 110% 5.28.184.229 (talk) 07:43, 29 August 2023 (UTC)

OK, I just checked the article for myself and U was correct about the typo. approval should be 30 not 40. I am not experienced with editing wikipedia so I'd someone knows how to change that, it's the latest poll on Gallant, conducted by Israel Hayom 5.28.184.229 (talk) 07:45, 29 August 2023 (UTC)

I meant to say I was correct, not U. 5.28.184.229 (talk) 07:45, 29 August 2023 (UTC)

 Done ערן117 (talk) 20:12, 14 September 2023 (UTC)

Unity Gov. column

The Unity Gov. column is irrelevant. Gantz made it clear that it's only until the end of the war, and obviously there won't be any election during the war. The interesting numbers are the Netanyahu block, which is identical to the pre-war government, and the Gantz block, which is identical to the 36th government. ערן117 (talk) 15:16, 13 October 2023 (UTC)

That makes sense. Would you recommend removing it? David O. Johnson (talk) 19:14, 13 October 2023 (UTC)

I think removing it is a good idea. GordonGlottal (talk) 19:52, 13 October 2023 (UTC)

It has been removed. David O. Johnson (talk) 20:30, 13 October 2023 (UTC)

I think it should be added.

It demonstrates support for the current government's coalition, even if it is publicly intended to be temporary.

Nobody knows what will happen, and there's a chance that this coalition will remain until the next elections. Therefore, we should represent the state of the coalition as objectively as possible.

Even if we accept that the sum of the pre-war coalition is more crucial (and I share this view), observing the difference between the unity government and the pre-war government will provide important insight into one of its main objectives - gauging public support and determining how much the unity government represents the broad majority of Israelis. Carmon456 (talk) 22:21, 13 October 2023 (UTC)

Given the new changes in the coalition, I added the unity gov. column so the coalition's expansion could be seen and measured for now. Do you think it should be shown differently/ that it's irrelevant at this point? @ערן117@David O. Johnson@GordonGlottal Carmon456 (talk) 18:48, 14 October 2023 (UTC)

I still think it's irrelevant. ערן117 (talk) 10:15, 15 October 2023 (UTC)

I removed it again. There's a majority for it and I don't see anyone who has changed their mind. ערן117 (talk) 11:15, 27 October 2023 (UTC)

I honestly think that's less useful than if we created a column for the parties that joined the previous anti-Netanyahu government (2021-22). But that's also not likely to be added. SecretName101 (talk) 01:21, 31 October 2023 (UTC)

I think that "Pre-war Government" and "Pre-war Opposition Coalition" are the most descriptive indicators of the Israeli public's perspectives. TimeEngineer (talk) 06:55, 9 November 2023 (UTC)

New poll

There was a new poll done yesterday by Midgam and Channel 12: [1]. I know the preference is to have Hebrew refs (plus they're usually more detailed), so I'll just leave this here so people know about it. David O. Johnson (talk) 20:35, 16 November 2023 (UTC)

Sa'ar scenario

When i first accessed the Maariv article there was a Sa'ar Party scenario (he had 5 seats) Whats up with that? why was it removed?

Here screenshots [2] [3], internet archive doesn't load for me but it looks like this is the version Braganza (talk) 16:25, 17 November 2023 (UTC)

Color for Bennett lead?

In a head to head Netanyahu-Bennett prime ministerial preference poll, Bennett has led. But I’m unsure what color to shade the background of his cell to indicate he led. Anyone? SecretName101 (talk) 08:46, 19 December 2023 (UTC)

Opposition bloc

I don't like the new "opposition bloc" section because I don't think it describes anything useful. The parties included are those of the previous coalition, but they don't currently comprise an organized bloc. If an election were held today and Gantz were given the mandate, it's obvious that he would not negotiate with Raam just to have 71 instead of 66, and nor would Raam be willing to join a wartime government. Plus, Raam would have been willing to sit with the current coalition. There may be value in a Gush haShinui count (i.e. previous coalition minus Raam) but they're not really consolidated atm either. I think it's really too early to predict the political dynamics of any future campaign, best to leave it for now. GordonGlottal (talk) 19:16, 31 December 2023 (UTC)

@GordonGlottal I would also delete. The so-called "opposition bloc" spans the entire political spectrum, including the right wing Yisrael Beitenu and far-left Hadash. It's definitely not a likely candidate for a future government.

This debate has happened a whole bunch of times, I think "Govt" was ultimately the right answer (even back when having a "Left" and "Right" column made sense).Rxtreme (talk) 00:18, 1 January 2024 (UTC)

It's a common delineation Israeli media reports. news reports on polls will regularly say how many seats the gov has and how many the "opposition bloc" has. If reliable sources dedicated to Israeli news think that it is an important delineation, it probably is. Many readers want to know if the parties that are opposed to Netanyahu's premiership (minus those two with abstentionst stances on joining a coalition) together have enough to form a possible government, which is what that column tells us. SecretName101 (talk) 12:22, 2 January 2024 (UTC)

I actually like the opposition bloc. Also Ra'am got vetoed by Otzma in 2021 so i don't think even if they tried they can join Braganza (talk) 18:43, 7 January 2024 (UTC)

Polls: Reorder the columns of the parties

Should the columns of the various parties be reorganized to reflect those in the government vs those presently in the opposition? Menachemsdavis (talk) 19:53, 12 January 2024 (UTC)

i think Balad, Hadash, Raam, Meretz, Awoda, YA, NUP, YB, Likud, UTJ, Shas, RZP might be better but i think we can leave it like that Braganza (talk) 09:48, 15 January 2024 (UTC)

i honestly think the current ordering looks pretty good, arranged in rough order of the last election's results. Totalstgamer (talk) 21:38, 15 January 2024 (UTC)

Semi-protected edit request on 24 January 2024

For the most recent poll, Mafdal-Religious Zionist polled at 6 seats, not 7 Sutapurachina (talk) 02:10, 24 January 2024 (UTC)

One other thing: The Opposition Bloc polled at 69 seats, and the Prewar Government polled at 46 seats Sutapurachina (talk) 02:15, 24 January 2024 (UTC)

 Not done: please provide reliable sources that support the change you want to be made. Shadow311 (talk) 19:37, 24 January 2024 (UTC)

 Done @SecretName101 has already corrected it. ערן117 (talk) 07:08, 25 January 2024 (UTC)

Semi-protected edit request on 3 March 2024

A new poll by channel 14 has been released https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=f-dv9FmcaUY Sutapurachina (talk) 00:49, 3 March 2024 (UTC)

 Not done: it's not clear what changes you want to be made. Please mention the specific changes in a "change X to Y" format and provide a reliable source if appropriate. Shaws username . talk . 01:49, 3 March 2024 (UTC)

 Done ערן117 (talk) 04:42, 4 March 2024 (UTC)

Semi-protected edit request on 23 February 2024

A new poll has been released https://www.maariv.co.il/news/politics/Article-1078520 Sutapurachina (talk) 06:21, 23 February 2024 (UTC)

 Not done: it's not clear what changes you want to be made. Please mention the specific changes in a "change X to Y" format and provide a reliable source if appropriate. M.Bitton (talk) 14:06, 24 February 2024 (UTC)

 Done ערן117 (talk) 04:44, 4 March 2024 (UTC)

Semi-protected edit request on 4 March 2024

Channel 13 has released a new poll. This should be added to the poll list Sutapurachina (talk) 03:07, 4 March 2024 (UTC)

 Done ערן117 (talk) 05:50, 4 March 2024 (UTC)

References

The columns don't line up :(

Please could the contents of the small table showing current seats be moved into the main table, so that the columns line up. Thanks! Misha Wolf (talk) 11:33, 13 March 2024 (UTC)

@Misha Wolf: its because there are no polls yet which stretch it to the correct length Braganza (talk) 12:13, 13 March 2024 (UTC)

Scenario polls

might be helpful if we merge the different scenario tables into one because they often have similar scenarios (New right-wing liberal parties led by Bennett, Cohen, Galant Hendel or Sa'ar and Labor-Meretz merger led by Golan). "Protest party", leadership polls and polls with just Labor-Meretz Braganza (talk) 08:30, 13 March 2024 (UTC)

I don't understand how you want to merge tables that have different headers. We can merge the 2 Meretz-Labour tables with and without Yair Golan because they have the same header. ערן117 (talk) 03:49, 15 March 2024 (UTC)

Weighting Channel 14 polls

Channel 14 is known to have a strong right wing slant, and to support the Netanyahu bloc. The polls that they have commissioned are really out of alignment with the other polls, from Maariv, channel 12 & channel 13. I think that its not an accurate reflection of the general political view of the country. In the graph, I'm wondering if we can weigh the channel 14 polls less intensely in the graph? TimeEngineer (talk) 13:57, 19 February 2024 (UTC)

I agree that the Channel 14 polls are very biased, though, I think that eventually, it will smooth out, and the representation will end up being fairly accurate. Also, since the polls are so widely different, I think that most people will be able to notice that something's up, and the channel 14 Wikipedia page warns of the Netanyahu bias. I think if it leads to confusion among Wikipedia readers though, this will be needed. Sutapurachina (talk) 06:27, 23 February 2024 (UTC)

The right wing would argue that the other channels are biased to the left (for example Raviv Drucker from Channel 13). We can mention the bias in the article, but we shouldn't give any preference to one side over the other. ערן117 (talk) 04:26, 16 March 2024 (UTC)

I think a good solution could be adding a graph per news-channel, or at least two extra views of the graph for "only channel 14", and "the rest of the pools without 14". on one hand it might complicate the visualization but on the other hand it could be a more precise method of visualizing the pool-graph without neglecting any news source regardless of biases that they might have, also it might make the scale of the biases a bit more clear. Botser.reshef.wiki (talk) 13:55, 17 March 2024 (UTC)

I don't think we're allowed to single ch14 out since that'd be considered editorializing, unless we can somehow establish through reliable sources that 14's polls are uniquely inaccurate. Also i think itd be quite a burden to introduce individual graphs for channels + itd probably massively clutter the page. Totalstgamer (talk) 21:11, 18 March 2024 (UTC)

National Right or New Hope

Why are we calling it National Right? Isn’t the common name New Hope? SecretName101 (talk) 18:59, 25 March 2024 (UTC)

The full name loosely translates into "New Hope - The National Right". When not using the full name, and at least untill any major change happens in the party's branding and public acceptance of the new name, I think it's best if we sticked with "New Hope" for short. Carmon456 (talk) 19:18, 25 March 2024 (UTC)

The Knesset website used to call it "New Hope-National Right" (IIRC), though the current phrasing is "New Hope - The United Right" [4]. The Times of Israel website also calls it that. [5]. David O. Johnson (talk) 19:55, 25 March 2024 (UTC)

Based on the logo, how its being referred to by sources (https://www.mako.co.il/news-politics/2024_q1/Article-533a66bc5b67e81026.htm?sCh=31750a2610f26110&pId=173113802_565301 for example) and the official name of the caucus, "National Right" is effectively the party's name. The "New Hope" part is kind of like "National Liberal Movement" in Likud's full name. Totalstgamer (talk) 20:43, 25 March 2024 (UTC)

Plenty of sources are going my “ תִּקְוָוה חֲדָשָׁה” (New Hope)

https://www.haaretz.co.il/news/politi/2024-03-25/ty-article/.premium/0000018e-709b-ddf4-a3de-78bbe6090000

https://www.inn.co.il/news/633098

which mind you is the name both English AND Hebrew Wikipedia use in the articles for the party https://he.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/%D7%AA%D7%A7%D7%95%D7%95%D7%94_%D7%97%D7%93%D7%A9%D7%94 SecretName101 (talk) 08:15, 27 March 2024 (UTC)

They seem to be attempting a rebrand—if you go to newhope.org.il you get a banner which says HAYAMIN HAMAMLAKHTI. Interestingly I remember when they first announced the name they said they were going to change it the next day, after realizing that it was a Star Wars thing. GordonGlottal (talk) 22:53, 27 March 2024 (UTC)

The second source you cited refers to it as New Hope - The National Right, on top of the fact that the party now refers to itself as such and that is the official name of the caucus. I personally think references to new hope are holdovers and we should use the National Right as the shortened name. Totalstgamer (talk) 17:54, 28 March 2024 (UTC)

New polls

Just going to drop here whenever there's new polls if I am don't have the time to add them myself:

Here's one: https://m.jpost.com/israel-news/article-783246 SecretName101 (talk) 00:37, 24 January 2024 (UTC)

Here is one https://m.jpost.com/israel-news/politics-and-diplomacy/article-783819 SecretName101 (talk) 05:32, 27 January 2024 (UTC)

 Done: I added the poll with Brothers in Arms, which is the only one with complete results. The other scenarios don't even give the results of the major parties, so I skipped them. ערן117 (talk) 11:00, 27 January 2024 (UTC)

Missing scenario polls:

https://www.israelnationalnews.com/news/386172

https://m.jpost.com/israel-news/article-790754 SecretName101 (talk) 21:25, 3 April 2024 (UTC)

I believe the Jerusalem Post poll is already included as the second poll in the "Other scenarios and scenario combinations" subsection. David O. Johnson (talk) 21:45, 3 April 2024 (UTC)

@David O. Johnson The article describes two scenarios that were polled, not just one.

"The poll also examined a more conservative scenario, whereby the current parties run again without changes, save for the Labor party being led by Golan instead of current chairwoman Merav Michaeli...." This scenario is missing. SecretName101 (talk) 22:24, 3 April 2024 (UTC)

Should we include polls on preferences about when to hold election

Many polls have asked this question since the start of the war.

It'd be a lot of work to go back and compile a table of this, but I think if someone here is willing to do the work, that'd be a great addition here.

Any opposition to adding the results of such polling questions? SecretName101 (talk) 22:11, 11 April 2024 (UTC)

Labor-Meretz scenario

A Labor-Meretz scenario appears twice, both in the main table and the scenarios section. It should appear only once and we should decide which one. I think that like RZ-Otzma scenarios, all Labor-Meretz scenarios except alternative leadership scenarios can be included in the main table. ערן117 (talk) 11:47, 31 May 2024 (UTC)

The year is missing from some scenario polls

The year is missing from some scenario polls. The two I've noticed are:

• "Naftali Bennett and Yossi Cohen join Yisrael Beiteinu"
• "Labor and Meretz run together under Yair Golan; Gideon Sa'ar, Naftali Bennett, Yossi Cohen, Avigdor Lieberman form a new party"

Misha Wolf (talk) 21:56, 3 June 2024 (UTC)

It's fixed. Thanks. David O. Johnson (talk) 22:05, 3 June 2024 (UTC)

Lieberman v Netanyahu?

@ערן117 I looked for the Lieberman v. Netanyahu poll you added here and I couldn't find it? What's going on. GordonGlottal (talk) 21:44, 5 June 2024 (UTC)

It's in the video, 2:20. ערן117 (talk) 07:50, 6 June 2024 (UTC)

Thanks :) GordonGlottal (talk) 13:14, 6 June 2024 (UTC)