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2006 Pennsylvania gubernatorial election

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2006 Pennsylvania gubernatorial election
← 2002 November 7, 2006 2010 →
 
Nominee Ed Rendell Lynn Swann
Party Democratic Republican
Running mate Catherine Baker Knoll Jim Matthews
Popular vote 2,470,517 1,622,135
Percentage 60.33% 39.61%
Rendell:      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%     80–90%      >90%
Swann:      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%      >90%
Tie:      50%      No data
Governor before election

Ed Rendell
Democratic

Elected Governor

Ed Rendell
Democratic

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The 2006 Pennsylvania gubernatorial election was held on November 7, 2006, and included the races for the governor of Pennsylvania and lieutenant governor of Pennsylvania. Incumbent Democratic governor Ed Rendell successfully ran for re-election. Pennsylvania's first female lieutenant governor, Catherine Baker Knoll, was also running for re-election.

As of 2023, this is the most recent gubernatorial election in which the Democratic candidate has carried the following counties- Clearfield, Columbia, Elk, Mercer, Pike, Susquehanna, Warren, Washington, Wayne and Wyoming. This is the last time any statewide race in Pennsylvania resulted in a candidate getting over 60% of the vote.

Background

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Rendell and Knoll had the advantage of incumbency, important in the swing state of Pennsylvania. Rendell's approval rating as of May 2006 was 62%.[1]

In the 2000 Presidential election, then Vice President Al Gore won the state 50.6%-46.4% over then Texas Governor George W. Bush. In 2004, Senator John Kerry carried the state 50.9%-48.4% over incumbent president Bush.

Although the state had voted Democratic in eight of the past 12 presidential elections, its Congressional delegation had been majority Republican for years. The counties of Philadelphia and Allegheny were the Democratic strongholds, while the central part of the state was where the Republican Party fared best. The 2005 statewide party registration had Democrats out-numbering Republicans in the state with 3,841,429 to 3,292,656, with 939,252 registered independent voters.[2]

Democratic primary

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Michael Morrill, the Green Party's nominee for governor in 2002, considered challenging Rendell on a progressive liberal platform. On February 13, 2006, Morrill however stated that he would not run, citing the toll his 2002 race took on his family.[3][4] Rendell thus ran unopposed.

Results

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Democratic primary results
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Ed Rendell (incumbent) Unopposed
Total votes 654,985 100.00

Republican primary

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Candidates

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Declared

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Withdrew

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Declined

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Campaign

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Lynn Swann, Jeff Piccola, Jim Panyard and Bill Scranton III all announced their intention to run in the Republican primary for governor in 2006. Scranton, who served two terms as Lieutenant Governor of Pennsylvania, was the son of popular former governor William Scranton, and a member of the wealthy Scranton family was the early front-runner. However, a series of blunders by his campaign,[6] and a lack of momentum from the Piccola and Panyard campaigns moved Swann into presumptive nominee status.[7] The state Republican party then endorsed Swann, leading the three other candidates to drop out ahead of the March deadline to file for the primary.

Results

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Republican primary results
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Lynn Swann Unopposed
Total votes 583,658 100.00

General election

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Candidates

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Withdrew

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Failed to submit signatures

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  • Hagan Smith, building contractor and chair of Butler County Constitution Party (Constitution)[11]
  • Russ Diamond, 2005 General Assembly pay raise whistleblower (Independent)[12]
    • Running mate: Tom Lingenfelter, former Republican state committeeman and perennial candidate

Four candidates were campaigning for governor,[13] but only two went on to appear on the ballot in November. Constitution candidate Hagan Smith and Independent candidate Russ Diamond were unable to secure the necessary signatures to appear on the ballot. On August 11, Green Party candidate Marakay Rogers withdrew her nominating papers, following a challenge by Pennsylvania Democrats, who alleged more than 69,000 signatures on the petitions were fake names, unregistered voters or illegible.[14] The challenge followed a Republican drive to collect signatures to put Green candidate Carl Romanelli on the ballot in the Senate race.[15]

Rogers continued to campaign, hopeful that a federal appeals court would rule favorably in a lawsuit seeking to overturn the state's signature requirement for third-party candidates.[16]

Analysis

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Former Steeler Lynn Swann courts voters tailgating before a football game between Pennsylvania's two football teams, the Pittsburgh Steelers and the Philadelphia Eagles.[17]

In July 2005, a Zogby Poll showed Rendell with only a 47% to 41% lead over Lynn Swann. Some speculated that controversy over Act 72, proposed Medicaid cuts, and possibly even a legislative pay increase that was signed into law had reduced the Governor's popularity.[citation needed] Rendell led in other recent polls by significantly higher margins. Following that poll, Rendell's supporters pointed out that he has raised more money than his opponents[citation needed], which they felt would help him spread his message[citation needed]. They also pointed out that as a sitting governor, Rendell had all of the traditional advantages of an incumbent.[18][19]

Swann hoped to perform strongly in the conservative "T" section of the state (the central and northern regions) and in his native western Pennsylvania area[citation needed]. Swann canvassed for votes among tailgating voters in Philadelphia before the Steelers game against the Eagles.[17] On February 7, Swann served as master of ceremonies for the Pittsburgh Steelers's Super Bowl XL victory parade before 250,000 people.[20] Polls in early February showed Swann and Rendell in a statistical tie.[21] However, Swann's momentum did not survive an effective barrage of advertising from Rendell in early spring and had trouble keeping up with Rendell's effective fundraising.[22] Swann's focus on reform never caught traction, possibly as a result of his vocal support for Chip Brightbill and Robert Jubelirer, two legislative leaders who were defeated in the May 2006 primary election.[23]

Predictions

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Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[24] Solid D November 6, 2006
Sabato's Crystal Ball[25] Likely D November 6, 2006
Rothenberg Political Report[26] Safe D November 2, 2006
Real Clear Politics[27] Likely D November 6, 2006

Polling

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Poll source Date(s) administered Ed
Rendell (D) 		Lynn
Swann (R)
Temple/Inquirer Poll[28] September 24, 2006 60% 33%
Rasmussen[29] September 22, 2006 56% 36%
Zogby/WSJ[30] September 11, 2006 51.6% 42.1%
Zogby/WSJ[30] August 28, 2006 48.4% 43.5%
Rasmussen[31] August 25, 2006 50% 38%
Strategic Vision[32] August 17, 2006 51% 41%
Quinnipiac[33] August 16, 2006 57% 38%
Rasmussen[34] July 26, 2006 50% 40%
Zogby/WSJ[30] July 24, 2006 47.5% 41.1%
Strategic Vision[35] July 20, 2006 49% 36%
Rasmussen[36] June 26, 2006 50% 36%
Quinnipiac[37] June 22, 2006 55% 31%
Zogby/WSJ[30] June 21, 2006 47.7% 43.4%
Strategic Vision[38] June 15, 2006 49% 38%
Rasmussen[39] May 25, 2006 52% 34%
Quinnipiac[40] May 12, 2006 55% 33%
Strategic Vision[41] May 10, 2006 49% 41%
Keystone Poll[42] May 3, 2006 49% 35%
Rasmussen[43] April 29, 2006 41% 44%
IssuesPA/Pew Poll[44] April 17–26, 2006 30% 29%
Muhlenberg[45] April 17–24, 2006 45% 39%
Strategic Vision[46] April 13, 2006 44% 42%
Quinnipiac[47] April 5, 2006 47% 37%
IssuesPA/Pew Poll[48] March 30, 2006 29% 35%
Rasmussen[49] March 28, 2006 44% 41%
Strategic Vision[50] March 15, 2006 44% 44%
Muhlenberg[51] March 4, 2006 46% 43%
Rasmussen[52] February 21, 2006 46% 43%
Quinnipiac[53] February 15, 2006 48% 36%
Keystone Poll[54] February 9, 2006 45% 42%
Strategic Vision[55] January 25, 2006 44% 46%
Rasmussen[56] January 19, 2006 43% 45%
Strategic Vision[57] December 21, 2005 45% 41%
Quinnipiac[58] December 13, 2005 48% 35%
Strategic Vision[59] November 16, 2005 45% 42%
Rasmussen[60] November 7, 2005 50% 36%
Strategic Vision[61] October 19, 2005 46% 41%
Keystone Poll[62] September 2005 53% 33%
Strategic Vision[63] September 12, 2005 48% 43%
Strategic Vision[64] August 2, 2005 47% 41%
Rasmussen July 20, 2005 47% 41%
Keystone Poll[62] June 2005 42% 32%
Keystone Poll[62] March 2005 59% 29%

Results

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Pennsylvania gubernatorial election, 2006[65][66]
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Ed Rendell (incumbent) 2,470,517 60.33
Republican Lynn Swann 1,622,135 39.61
Write-in 2,670 0.06
Total votes 4,095,322 100.00
Turnout   50.05
Democratic hold

Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

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See also

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References

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  1. ^ Survey USA
  2. ^ 2005 Municipal Election
  3. ^ "Morrill Majority". Archived from the original on May 10, 2017. Retrieved June 10, 2021.
  4. ^ Morrill release Archived 2006-03-22 at the Wayback Machine
  5. ^ a b c d e f "GOP Shortlist for Governor". PoliticsPA. The Publius Group. 2002. Archived from the original on November 8, 2002.
  6. ^ "Inquirer.com: Philadelphia local news, sports, jobs, cars, homes". Archived from the original on November 20, 2015.
  7. ^ "Lynn Swann Goes Deep".
  8. ^ Ed Rendell's Campaign Website
  9. ^ Lynn Swann's Campaign Website
  10. ^ Green Party
  11. ^ Hagan For Governor site Archived 2006-01-29 at the Wayback Machine
  12. ^ "Russ Diamond's Campaign Website". Archived from the original on July 15, 2016. Retrieved December 1, 2018.
  13. ^ Politics1: Pennsylvania
  14. ^ "Green Party candidates give up". Los Angeles Daily News. Archived from the original on September 26, 2011. Retrieved August 15, 2006.
  15. ^ Green Party candidate withdraws[permanent dead link‍]
  16. ^ Minor parties sue Archived 2007-09-30 at the Wayback Machine
  17. ^ a b Ritter, Kara (August 2006). "Ex-Steeler looks to sway support of Eagles' fans". The Philadelphia Inquirer.
  18. ^ Madonna analysis Archived 2005-12-14 at the Wayback Machine
  19. ^ Franklin & Marshall College (Terry Madonna) Center for Politics & Public Affairs Archived 2005-12-18 at the Wayback Machine
  20. ^ A quarter-million thanks Archived 2012-09-06 at archive.today Pittsburgh Tribune-Review
  21. ^ Rendell, Swann in dead heat Archived 2008-04-08 at the Wayback Machine Pittsburgh Tribune-Review
  22. ^ Barnes, Tom; Roddy, Dennis B. (November 8, 2006). "Rendell cruises to 2nd term as governor". Pittsburgh Post-Gazette.
  23. ^ Deparle, Jason (May 18, 2006). "G.O.P. Conservatives Topple Veteran State Lawmakers in Pennsylvania". The New York Times. Retrieved May 22, 2010.
  24. ^ "2006 Governor Race Ratings for November 6, 2006" (PDF). The Cook Political Report. Archived from the original (PDF) on June 5, 2008. Retrieved October 1, 2006.
  25. ^ "Election Eve 2006: THE FINAL PREDICTIONS". Sabato's Crystal Ball. November 6, 2006. Retrieved June 25, 2021.
  26. ^ "2006 Gubernatorial Ratings". Senate Ratings. The Rothenberg Political Report. Retrieved June 25, 2021.
  27. ^ "Election 2006". Real Clear Politics. Retrieved June 25, 2021.
  28. ^ Temple/Inquirer Poll
  29. ^ Rasmussen
  30. ^ a b c d Zogby/WSJ
  31. ^ Rasmussen
  32. ^ Strategic Vision
  33. ^ Quinnipiac
  34. ^ Rasmussen
  35. ^ Strategic Vision
  36. ^ Rasmussen
  37. ^ Quinnipiac
  38. ^ Strategic Vision
  39. ^ Rasmussen
  40. ^ Quinnipiac
  41. ^ Strategic Vision
  42. ^ Keystone Poll
  43. ^ Rasmussen
  44. ^ IssuesPA/Pew Poll
  45. ^ Muhlenberg
  46. ^ Strategic Vision
  47. ^ Quinnipiac
  48. ^ IssuesPA/Pew Poll
  49. ^ Rasmussen
  50. ^ Strategic Vision
  51. ^ Muhlenberg [permanent dead link‍]
  52. ^ Rasmussen
  53. ^ Quinnipiac
  54. ^ Keystone Poll
  55. ^ Strategic Vision
  56. ^ Rasmussen
  57. ^ Strategic Vision
  58. ^ Quinnipiac
  59. ^ Strategic Vision
  60. ^ Rasmussen
  61. ^ Strategic Vision
  62. ^ a b c Keystone Poll
  63. ^ Strategic Vision
  64. ^ Strategic Vision
  65. ^ The Pennsylvania Manual, p. 7-18.
  66. ^ The Pennsylvania Manual, p. 7-84.
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Campaign websites (Archived)

Sources

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