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Opinion polling for the 2023 Dutch general election

From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

In the run-up to the 2023 Dutch general election, various organisations carried out opinion polling to gauge voting intentions in the Netherlands. Results of such polls are displayed in this list.

The date range for these opinion polls are from the 2021 Dutch general election, held on 15–17 March, to election day. The next election was scheduled for March 2025, but, due to the fall of the fourth Rutte cabinet, took place on 22 November 2023.[1][2] Four main pollsters performed opinion polls on voting intentions in the Netherlands, these being: I&O Research, Ipsos, Kantar and Peil.nl. Peil.nl does not give percentages, only showing seats while the other pollsters do include percentages.

Projections

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Graphical summary

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The averages in the graphs below were constructed using polls listed below conducted by the four major Dutch pollsters. The trendlines show local regressions representing seat totals (not vote percentages). Seats

Seats

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There are 150 seats in total, 76 seats are needed for a majority. Parties are denoted with a dash if no indication is given of their level in the polls.

Polling firm Fieldwork date Sample
size 		VVD D66 PVV CDA SP GL–PvdA FvD PvdD CU Volt JA21 SGP DENK 50+ BBB BIJ1 BVNL NSC Lead Ref
PvdA GL
2023 election 22 Nov 2023 24 9 37 5 5 25 3 3 3 2 1 3 3 0 7 0 0 20 12
Ipsos 22 Nov 2023 – 24 10 35 5 5 25 3 3 3 2 1 3 3 1 7 0 0 20 10 [3]
Ipsos 22 Nov 2023 – 23 10 35 5 5 26 3 4 3 2 1 3 2 1 7 0 0 20 9 [4]
Peil.nl 21 Nov 2023 6,000+ 26 8 29 6 5 28 4 4 3 3 1 2 4 0 6 1 1 19 1 [5]
I&O Research 20–21 Nov 2023 2,473 27 9 28 4 6 27 4 5 3 3 1 3 3 0 5 0 1 21 1 [6]
Ipsos 16–21 Nov 2023 2,260 29 11 27 4 5 24 3 5 4 4 1 3 4 0 6 1 0 19 2 [7]
I&O Research 17–20 Nov 2023 2,473 27 8 26 4 6 27 4 5 4 3 2 3 3 0 6 0 1 21 Tie [8]
Peil.nl 17–18 Nov 2023 7,000- 26 8 26 6 5 23 5 5 3 4 1 2 4 0 7 1 1 23 Tie [9]
I&O Research 12–14 Nov 2023 2,323 27 7 20 4 7 23 4 6 3 5 1 4 4 1 8 0 1 25 2 [10]
Ipsos 10–13 Nov 2023 2,052 28 9 17 4 5 23 4 7 5 3 2 3 4 0 9 1 0 26 2 [11]
Peil.nl 10–11 Nov 2023 3,000+ 27 7 21 5 4 24 5 4 3 4 1 2 4 0 9 1 1 28 1 [12]
I&O Research 6–7 Nov 2023 2,190 26 8 18 4 6 24 5 5 3 5 1 3 4 0 8 0 1 29 3 [13]
Peil.nl 3–4 Nov 2023 4,200+ 26 7 19 4 4 25 5 5 3 4 2 2 3 0 9 1 1 30 4 [14]
Ipsos 27–30 Oct 2023 1,924 28 8 17 4 5 22 4 7 4 3 2 3 4 0 12 1 0 26 2 [15]
Peil.nl 27–28 Oct 2023 4,200+ 26 7 19 5 4 24 5 4 4 4 2 2 3 0 9 0 1 31 5 [16]
I&O Research 22–24 Oct 2023 2,225 26 6 19 4 5 25 4 7 3 5 2 3 3 0 11 0 0 27 1 [17]
Peil.nl 20–21 Oct 2023 3,000+ 26 7 20 5 4 24 5 4 4 4 2 2 3 0 11 0 1 28 2 [18]
Ipsos 13–16 Oct 2023 1013 28 7 18 4 6 20 4 7 4 3 2 3 4 0 12 1 0 27 1 [19]
Peil.nl 13–14 Oct 2023 3,000+ 26 7 20 6 4 24 5 4 4 4 1 2 2 0 12 0 1 28 2 [20]
I&O Research 6–9 Oct 2023 2,293 27 6 18 5 5 26 5 6 3 4 2 3 3 0 11 0 0 26 1 [21]
Peil.nl 6–7 Oct 2023 3,000+ 25 7 19 6 4 24 5 5 4 4 1 2 2 0 13 0 1 28 3 [22]
I&O Research 22–25 Sep 2023 2,288 27 5 18 5 5 29 4 6 4 3 1 4 2 0 12 0 0 25 2 [23]
Ipsos 22–25 Sep 2023 1,020 27 9 18 4 5 21 3 7 5 3 3 3 3 0 13 1 0 25 2 [24]
Peil.nl 22 Sep 2023 3,000+ 24 7 17 6 4 24 5 6 4 4 2 2 2 1 14 0 1 27 3 [25]
I&O Research 8–11 Sep 2023 2,412 25 6 14 4 5 27 4 7 4 4 1 4 2 1 14 0 0 28 1 [26]
Peil.nl 9 Sep 2023 3,000+ 26 7 15 6 4 23 5 7 3 3 2 2 2 0 16 0 1 28 2 [27]
Ipsos 1–4 Sep 2023 1,031 26 10 15 5 3 20 3 9 5 3 3 3 3 0 15 0 0 27 1 [28]
Peil.nl 2 Sep 2023 3,000+ 25 7 15 6 4 23 5 7 3 3 1 2 2 0 18 0 1 28 3 [29]
Peil.nl 25–26 Aug 2023 3,000+ 25 7 15 5 5 24 5 7 3 3 3 2 2 0 14 0 1 29 4 [30]
I&O Research 23–24 Aug 2023 2,398 22 7 13 3 5 28 3 8 4 3 3 4 3 0 13 0 0 31 3 [31]
22 Aug 2023 Frans Timmermans elected leader of GL/PvdA for the 2023 general election by members of both parties[32]
20 Aug 2023 Pieter Omtzigt launches a new party for the 2023 general election, New Social Contract[33]
Peil.nl 18–19 Aug 2023 3,000+ 28 8 19 8 8 26 5 9 4 4 3 3 2 1 21 0 1 – 2 [34]
14 Aug 2023 Henri Bontenbal appointed CDA leader for the 2023 general election[35]
14 Aug 2023 Dilan Yeşilgöz-Zegerius appointed VVD leader for the 2023 general election[36]
12 Aug 2023 Rob Jetten elected D66 leader for the 2023 general election by its members[37]
Ipsos 21–24 Jul 2023 1,004 28 10 19 6 6 27 4 7 5 4 4 3 3 0 24 0 0 – 1 [38]
I&O Research 14–17 Jul 2023 2,736 25 9 15 5 7 28 4 9 5 8 6 4 2 0 21 1 1 – 3 [39]
17 Jul 2023 Members of the PvdA and GL vote in favour of running on a joint list at the 2023 general election[40]
Peil.nl 15–16 Jul 2023 3,000+ 25 9 15 7 7 25 5 8 4 6 6 3 2 1 25 1 1 – Tie [41]
25 8 15 7 6 28[a] 5 7 4 6 6 3 2 1 25 1 1 – 3
13 Jul 2023 Sigrid Kaag announces that she will not serve as D66 leader for the 2023 general election[42]
10 Jul 2023 Mark Rutte announces that he will not serve as VVD leader for the 2023 general election[43]
10 Jul 2023 Wopke Hoekstra announces that he will not serve as CDA leader for the 2023 general election[44]
7 Jul 2023 The Fourth Rutte cabinet falls over a disagreement on asylum policy[45]
Peil.nl 30 Jun – 1 Jul 2023 3,000+ 20 10 14 6 8 11 14 5 10 4 6 7 3 2 1 27 1 1 – 7 [46]
Ipsos 23–26 Jun 2023 1,022 28 12 15 8 7 9 11 3 10 5 5 6 3 3 1 23 1 0 – 5 [47]
Peil.nl 16–17 Jun 2023 3,000+ 20 10 13 6 7 11 14 5 10 4 7 6 3 2 1 29 1 1 – 9 [48]
I&O Research 9–12 Jun 2023 2,364 22 10 12 6 8 11 12 4 8 5 7 8 4 2 1 28 1 1 – 6 [49]
30 May 2023 2023 Dutch Senate election
Ipsos 26–29 May 2023 1,019 29 11 14 6 6 9 13 4 10 5 4 6 3 3 1 25 1 0 – 4 [50]
Peil.nl 19–20 May 2023 3,000+ 18 10 10 7 7 11 14 5 9 4 7 6 3 2 1 34 1 1 – 16 [51]
I&O Research 12–15 May 2023 1,872 24 9 13 5 7 11 12 3 12 5 6 7 4 2 2 27 0 1 – 3 [52]
Peil.nl 5–6 May 2023 3,000+ 18 10 10 7 7 11 14 5 9 4 6 6 3 2 1 35 1 1 – 17 [53]
Ipsos 21–24 Apr 2023 1,002 26 10 11 6 8 10 12 4 11 5 5 5 3 3 0 30 1 0 – 4 [54]
Peil.nl 21–22 Apr 2023 3,000+ 17 10 9 7 7 12 15 5 9 4 6 6 3 1 1 36 1 1 – 19 [55]
I&O Research 14–17 Apr 2023 2,197 19 10 13 7 7 12 13 3 9 4 7 8 3 2 1 31 1 0 – 12 [56]
Peil.nl 1 Apr 2023 3,000+ 18 10 9 6 7 12 15 5 9 4 5 6 3 1 2 36 1 1 – 18 [57]
Ipsos 24–27 Mar 2023 1,005 27 12 12 7 7 12 11 4 8 4 4 6 3 3 1 28 1 0 – 1 [58]
Peil.nl 24–25 Mar 2023 3,000+ 19 9 9 7 7 12 15 5 9 5 5 7 3 1 2 33 1 1 – 14 [59]
15 Mar 2023 2023 Dutch provincial elections
Ipsos 17–27 Feb 2023 5,291 29 15 16 9 8 10 10 4 9 5 4 9 3 3 1 14 1 0 – 13 [60]
Peil.nl 24–25 Feb 2023 3,000+ 21 13 17 7 7 11 13 5 8 5 4 10 4 3 1 19 1 1 – 2 [61]
Peil.nl 17–18 Feb 2023 3,000+ 23 12 18 7 7 11 13 5 8 5 4 10 4 3 1 17 1 1 – 5 [62]
I&O Research 10–13 Feb 2023 2,489 24 12 18 7 9 13 12 5 10 5 3 10 4 3 0 14 1 0 – 6 [63]
Peil.nl 10–11 Feb 2023 3.000+ 22 12 18 7 7 11 13 5 9 6 4 11 4 3 1 15 1 1 – 4 [64]
Ipsos 27–30 Jan 2023 1,002 29 15 18 11 8 10 10 5 9 4 4 10 3 3 0 10 1 0 – 11 [65]
I&O Research 13–16 Jan 2023 2,489 24 13 19 6 10 9 13 4 8 5 5 12 5 3 0 12 1 1 – 5 [66]
Peil.nl 13–14 Jan 2023 3.000+ 20 12 19 6 8 10 12 5 9 6 5 13 4 3 1 15 1 1 – 1 [67]
13 Jan 2023 Gert-Jan Segers steps down as Leader of the Christian Union and is replaced by Mirjam Bikker[68]
Ipsos 16–19 Dec 2022 1,005 27 14 18 9 8 11 12 3 8 5 5 9 4 3 0 13 1 0 – 9 [69]
Peil.nl 16–17 Dec 2022 3.000+ 20 12 20 5 8 10 12 5 8 6 5 14 4 3 1 15 1 1 – Tie [70]
I&O Research 9–12 Dec 2022 2,142 21 11 18 7 9 11 13 4 10 6 5 13 5 1 1 13 2 0 – 3 [66]
Peil.nl 2–3 Dec 2022 3.000+ 21 11 20 5 8 10 12 5 8 6 5 15 4 3 1 14 1 1 – 1 [71]
Ipsos 25–28 Nov 2022 1,040 27 17 19 8 9 10 12 2 9 4 4 9 3 3 0 12 2 0 – 8 [72]
Peil.nl 25–26 Nov 2022 3.000+ 20 12 21 5 8 10 12 5 8 6 5 15 4 3 1 13 1 1 – 1 [73]
I&O Research 11–14 Nov 2022 2,069 22 12 18 7 9 11 14 5 8 6 4 12 4 2 1 13 1 1 – 4 [74]
Peil.nl 11–12 Nov 2022 3.000+ 20 12 21 5 8 10 12 5 8 6 5 15 4 3 1 13 1 1 – 1 [75]
Ipsos 21–24 Oct 2022 1,021 27 16 21 8 8 11 10 3 10 4 4 9 3 3 0 12 1 0 – 6 [76]
Peil.nl 21–22 Oct 2022 3.000+ 21 12 20 6 8 11 12 5 8 6 5 14 4 3 1 12 1 1 – 1 [77]
I&O Research 14–17 Oct 2022 2,205 21 12 19 7 9 11 12 5 10 5 5 10 5 2 1 14 1 1 – 2 [78]
Peil.nl 14–15 Oct 2022 3.000+ 21 12 18 6 8 12 12 5 8 6 5 12 4 3 1 15 1 1 – 3 [79]
Ipsos 23–26 Sep 2022 1,003 25 16 20 9 7 12 11 3 10 4 3 8 3 3 0 15 1 0 – 5 [80]
Peil.nl 23–24 Sep 2022 3.000+ 21 11 16 6 7 14 12 5 8 6 5 11 4 3 1 18 1 1 – 3 [81]
I&O Research 9–12 Sep 2022 1,789 23 15 16 6 8 11 12 6 7 5 5 12 4 2 1 15 1 1 – 7 [82]
Ipsos 26–29 Aug 2022 1,007 27 18 18 9 7 8 11 4 9 5 2 9 3 3 0 16 1 0 – 9 [83]
Peil.nl 26–27 Aug 2022 3,000+ 20 12 17 6 7 12 13 5 9 6 5 9 4 3 1 19 1 1 – 1 [84]
Peil.nl 5–6 Aug 2022 3,000+ 21 13 15 6 7 13 13 4 8 7 5 8 4 3 1 19 2 1 – 2 [85]
Ipsos 22–25 Jul 2022 1,009 29 17 18 9 8 9 10 4 9 5 3 6 3 4 0 15 1 0 – 11 [86]
I&O Research 15–18 Jul 2022 1,953 22 14 16 6 9 10 12 4 10 5 5 9 4 3 1 18 1 1 – 4 [87]
Peil.nl 8–9 Jul 2022 3,000+ 21 13 15 6 7 12 13 4 8 7 5 8 4 3 1 20 2 1 – 1 [88]
Ipsos 24–27 Jun 2022 1,028 31 16 16 9 9 10 11 5 8 5 4 6 3 4 0 12 1 0 – 15 [89]
Peil.nl 24–25 Jun 2022 3,000+ 21 12 15 7 7 12 13 5 8 7 5 8 4 3 1 18 2 2 – 3 [90]
Peil.nl 17–18 Jun 2022 3,000+ 22 11 17 7 7 12 13 5 8 7 5 10 4 3 1 14 2 2 – 5 [91]
I&O Research 10–13 Jun 2022 2,151 24 14 15 8 10 11 12 4 9 6 5 10 5 3 0 12 2 0 – 9 [92]
Peil.nl 10–11 Jun 2022 3,000+ 23 12 17 7 7 12 12 5 8 7 5 10 4 3 1 13 2 2 – 6 [93]
Ipsos 27–30 May 2022 1,039 33 14 17 11 8 11 10 5 9 6 5 6 3 3 1 7 1 0 – 16 [94]
Peil.nl 27–28 May 2022 3,000+ 25 13 16 7 7 12 12 5 8 7 4 11 4 3 1 11 2 2 – 9 [95]
Kantar 25–27 May 2022 1,078 30 13 16 9 6 13 12 4 8 6 6 5 4 4 1 12 1 0 – 14 [96]
I&O Research 13–16 May 2022 2,356 28 13 16 8 8 11 14 5 8 6 5 10 4 3 1 8 1 1 – 12 [97]
Peil.nl 13–14 May 2022 3,000+ 25 13 16 7 7 12 12 5 8 7 4 11 4 3 1 11 2 2 – 9 [98]
Ipsos 22–25 Apr 2022 1,013 34 14 14 9 7 11 11 5 10 5 5 8 4 4 1 7 1 0 – 20 [99]
Peil.nl 22–23 Apr 2022 3,000+ 27 14 15 7 7 12 12 4 8 7 4 11 4 3 1 10 2 2 – 12 [100]
12 Apr 2022 Lilianne Ploumen steps down as Leader of the PvdA[101]
I&O Research 8–11 Apr 2022 2,403 29 18 13 7 7 11 13 4 8 6 4 10 4 3 2 8 1 2 – 11 [102]
Peil.nl 8–9 Apr 2022 3,000+ 26 18 14 8 7 11 12 4 8 7 4 11 4 3 1 10 1 1 – 8 [103]
Peil.nl 1–2 Apr 2022 3,000+ 25 18 14 9 7 11 12 4 8 7 4 12 4 3 1 9 1 1 – 7 [104]
Ipsos 25–28 Mar 2022 1,048 33 19 15 9 7 11 10 4 9 5 4 8 4 4 1 6 1 0 – 14 [105]
Peil.nl 25–26 Mar 2022 3,000+ 25 18 14 9 7 11 12 4 8 7 4 12 4 3 1 9 1 1 – 7 [106]
Peil.nl 18–19 Mar 2022 3,000+ 25 18 14 9 7 11 12 4 8 7 4 12 4 3 1 9 1 1 – 7 [107]
16 Mar 2022 2022 Dutch municipal elections
Peil.nl 11–12 Mar 2022 3,000+ 27 20 14 8 8 10 9 5 9 6 4 12 4 3 1 8 1 1 – 7 [108]
Kantar 9–11 Mar 2022 1,197 33 20 13 8 10 11 11 4 7 6 4 8 2 2 2 8 1 0 – 13 [96]
Peil.nl 4–5 Mar 2022 3,000+ 27 20 14 8 9 9 9 5 9 6 4 12 4 3 1 8 1 1 – 7 [109]
Ipsos 25–28 Feb 2022 1,025 32 20 17 10 7 10 9 4 9 5 5 8 3 4 1 5 1 0 – 12 [110]
Peil.nl 25–26 Feb 2022 3,000+ 25 20 14 7 9 9 9 6 9 6 5 13 4 3 1 8 1 1 – 5 [111]
Peil.nl 18–19 Feb 2022 3,000+ 23 20 15 6 9 9 9 7 9 5 7 13 4 3 1 8 1 1 – 3 [112]
I&O Research 11–14 Feb 2022 2,311 27 19 17 6 7 10 11 4 8 6 9 9 4 2 1 8 1 1 – 8 [113]
13 Feb 2022 Nilüfer Gündoğan is suspended by Volt and opts to continue as an independent[114]
Peil.nl 11–12 Feb 2022 3,000+ 22 19 15 6 8 9 9 7 9 5 10 13 4 3 1 8 1 1 – 3 [115]
Peil.nl 4–5 Feb 2022 3,000+ 22 19 15 6 8 9 9 7 9 5 10 13 4 3 1 8 1 1 – 3 [116]
Kantar 27–31 Jan 2022 1,002 32 20 16 11 8 10 8 6 5 5 6 9 2 2 2 7 1 0 – 12 [117]
Peil.nl 28–29 Jan 2022 3,000+ 22 19 15 6 8 9 9 7 9 5 10 13 4 3 1 8 1 1 – 3 [118]
Ipsos 21–24 Jan 2022 1,024 30 19 17 9 7 10 10 6 9 5 7 6 3 3 1 7 1 0 – 11 [119]
Peil.nl 21–22 Jan 2022 3,000+ 23 18 17 6 8 9 9 7 9 6 10 11 4 3 1 7 1 1 – 5 [120]
I&O Research 14–17 Jan 2022 2,230 26 17 15 8 8 9 11 5 8 6 10 10 4 2 1 8 1 1 – 9 [121]
Peil.nl 14–15 Jan 2022 3,000+ 25 19 18 7 8 9 9 7 9 6 8 9 3 3 1 7 1 1 – 6 [122]
10 Jan 2022 Prime Minister Mark Rutte and his Fourth cabinet are inaugurated[123]
Peil.nl 24–25 Dec 2021 3,000+ 27 18 19 7 8 9 9 6 9 6 7 9 3 3 0 8 1 1 – 8 [124]
Kantar 15–20 Dec 2021 1,004 32 16 18 10 11 10 8 4 8 8 7 7 3 1 1 5 1 0 – 14 [125]
Ipsos 17–20 Dec 2021 1,014 31 21 18 8 8 10 8 6 9 5 5 8 3 3 0 6 1 0 – 10 [126]
Peil.nl 17–18 Dec 2021 3,000+ 27 18 19 7 8 9 9 6 9 6 7 9 3 3 0 8 1 1 – 8 [127]
Peil.nl 10–11 Dec 2021 3,000+ 30 17 19 6 8 10 9 6 9 6 7 7 3 3 0 8 1 1 – 11 [128]
I&O Research 3–6 Dec 2021 2,053 29 18 16 9 8 9 9 4 8 5 10 8 3 1 1 9 2 1 – 11 [129]
Peil.nl 3–4 Dec 2021 3,000+ 32 16 20 5 8 10 9 6 9 6 6 7 3 3 0 8 1 1 – 12 [130]
Ipsos 26–29 Nov 2021 1,008 34 20 20 10 9 8 8 4 8 5 5 5 4 3 0 6 1 0 – 14 [131]
Peil.nl 26–27 Nov 2021 3,000+ 32 16 20 5 8 10 9 6 9 6 6 7 3 3 0 8 1 1 – 12 [132]
Peil.nl 19–20 Nov 2021 3,000+ 32 16 20 5 8 10 9 6 9 6 6 7 3 3 0 8 1 1 – 12 [133]
I&O Research 12–15 Nov 2021 2,021 33 15 17 8 8 9 10 6 7 8 8 6 4 2 0 6 2 1 – 16 [134]
Kantar 5–9 Nov 2021 985 33 20 18 9 8 9 8 6 7 5 7 5 3 3 2 6 1 0 – 13 [135]
Peil.nl 5–6 Nov 2021 3,000+ 34 18 20 5 8 10 9 5 9 6 6 5 3 3 0 7 1 1 – 16 [136]
Peil.nl 29–30 Oct 2021 3,000+ 34 18 20 5 8 10 9 5 9 6 6 5 3 3 0 7 1 1 – 16 [137]
Ipsos 22–25 Oct 2021 1,026 35 19 19 9 10 9 7 3 10 5 6 6 3 3 0 5 1 0 – 16 [138]
Peil.nl 15–16 Oct 2021 3,000+ 34 17 19 5 9 11 9 6 8 6 6 5 3 3 0 7 1 1 – 16 [139]
I&O Research 8–11 Oct 2021 2,052 34 15 16 7 10 11 12 5 8 6 8 7 4 1 0 5 1 0 – 18 [140]
Peil.nl 8–9 Oct 2021 3,000+ 34 17 18 5 9 11 9 7 8 7 6 4 3 3 0 7 1 1 – 16 [141]
Peil.nl 1–2 Oct 2021 3,000+ 36 17 17 5 9 11 9 6 7 7 6 5 3 3 0 7 1 1 – 16 [142]
Ipsos 24–27 Sep 2021 994 37 19 18 8 8 9 9 4 9 5 6 6 3 3 0 5 1 0 – 18 [143]
Peil.nl 24–25 Sep 2021 3,000+ 35 19 17 5 9 11 9 6 7 7 6 4 3 3 0 7 1 1 – 16 [144]
Kantar 17–20 Sep 2021 1,037 33 20 20 7 7 9 11 4 6 6 6 6 3 3 1 7 1 0 – 13 [145]
Peil.nl 17–18 Sep 2021 3,000+ 35 20 16 7 8 11 9 5 7 7 5 5 3 3 0 7 1 1 – 15 [146]
I&O Research 10–13 Sep 2021 1,990 33 19 16 7 9 12 11 5 8 7 6 5 3 1 0 6 2 0 – 14 [147]
Peil.nl 10–11 Sep 2021 3,000+ 37 19 16 6 9 11 8 5 8 6 5 5 3 3 0 7 1 1 – 18 [148]
Peil.nl 3–4 Sep 2021 3,000+ 37 18 16 7 9 11 8 5 8 6 5 5 3 3 0 7 1 1 – 19 [149]
Ipsos 27–30 Aug 2021 1,008 39 21 17 10 7 10 9 4 7 6 5 5 3 3 0 3 1 0 – 18 [150]
Peil.nl 20–21 Aug 2021 3,000+ 36 19 17 6 9 11 7 5 8 6 6 5 3 3 0 7 1 1 – 17 [151]
7 Aug 2021 The Van Haga Group officially launches a new party, BVNL[152]
Ipsos 23–26 Jul 2021 1,004 37 22 16 9 9 9 8 3 8 6 5 7 3 3 0 4 1 0 – 15 [153]
Peil.nl 23–24 Jul 2021 3,000+ 35 22 17 6 9 10 7 5 8 6 6 5 3 3 0 6 1 1 – 13 [154]
I&O Research 9–12 Jul 2021 1,939 35 22 17 6 9 11 9 4 7 5 6 6 3 2 0 5 2 1 – 13 [155]
Ipsos 25–28 Jun 2021 1,011 39 23 17 9 8 9 7 5 8 5 4 5 3 3 0 4 1 – – 16 [156]
Peil.nl 25–26 Jun 2021 3,000+ 35 22 18 6 9 10 7 5 8 6 6 5 3 3 0 5 2 – – 13 [157]
Peil.nl 18–19 Jun 2021 3,000+ 35 22 18 6 9 10 7 5 8 6 6 5 3 3 0 5 2 – – 13 [158]
Peil.nl 11–12 Jun 2021 3,000+ 35 22 18 8 9 10 7 5 7 5 6 6 3 3 0 4 2 – – 13 [159]
12 Jun 2021 Pieter Omtzigt leaves the CDA and continues as an independent[160]
I&O Research 4–7 Jun 2021 1,824 36 21 14 12 7 10 9 5 8 5 6 6 3 3 0 3 2 – – 15 [161]
Peil.nl 4–5 Jun 2021 3,000+ 35 22 17 11 9 10 7 4 7 5 6 6 3 3 0 3 2 – – 13 [162]
Peil.nl 28–29 May 2021 3,000+ 34 23 18 11 9 9 7 4 7 5 6 6 3 3 0 3 2 – – 11 [163]
Ipsos 21–23 May 2021 1,010 36 25 17 13 8 10 6 3 9 4 5 6 3 2 0 2 1 – – 11 [164]
Peil.nl 21–22 May 2021 3,000+ 34 23 18 11 9 9 7 4 7 5 6 6 3 3 0 3 2 – – 11 [165]
Peil.nl 14–15 May 2021 3,000+ 34 23 18 11 9 9 7 4 7 5 6 6 3 3 0 3 2 – – 11 [166]
13 May 2021 Wybren van Haga, Hans Smolders and Olaf Ephraim split from Forum for Democracy, forming the Van Haga Group[167]
Peil.nl 7–8 May 2021 3,000+ 34 23 17 11 9 9 7 8 7 5 5 6 3 3 0 2 1 – – 10 [168]
6 May 2021 50+ loses parliamentary representation when Liane den Haan leaves the party and continues as an independent[169]
I&O Research 30 Apr – 3 May 2021 1,914 34 23 15 10 10 10 7 7 7 5 6 6 3 3 1 2 1 – – 11 [170]
Peil.nl 30 Apr – 1 May 2021 3,000+ 32 22 18 12 9 9 7 9 7 5 5 6 3 3 0 2 1 – – 10 [171]
Peil.nl 23–24 Apr 2021 3,000+ 32 22 18 12 9 9 7 9 7 5 5 6 3 3 0 2 1 – – 10 [172]
Ipsos 16–19 Apr 2021 1,014 35 26 18 12 7 9 7 7 8 4 5 4 3 2 1 1 1 – – 9 [173]
Peil.nl 16–17 Apr 2021 3,000+ 32 24 17 14 9 9 7 9 6 5 4 5 3 3 0 2 1 – – 8 [174]
I&O Research 9–12 Apr 2021 1,738 34 26 15 14 10 8 6 7 6 5 4 6 3 3 1 1 1 – – 8 [175]
Peil.nl 9–10 Apr 2021 3,000+ 31 24 16 14 9 9 7 9 7 5 4 5 3 3 1 2 1 – – 7 [176]
Peil.nl 2–3 Apr 2021 3,000+ 28 25 16 15 9 9 8 9 7 5 4 5 3 3 1 2 1 – – 3 [177]
Peil.nl 26–27 Mar 2021 3,000+ 33 24 16 14 9 9 7 9 6 5 4 5 3 3 1 1 1 – – 9 [178]
2021 election 17 Mar 2021 – 34 24 17 15 9 9 8 8 6 5 3 3 3 3 1 1 1 – – 10

Vote share

[edit]
Polling firm Fieldwork date Sample
size 		VVD D66 PVV CDA SP GL–PvdA FvD PvdD CU Volt JA21 SGP DENK 50+ BBB BIJ1 BVNL NSC Others Lead Ref
PvdA GL
I&O Research 20–21 Nov 2023 2,473 17.4% 6.0% 17.7% 2.6% 4.0% 17.7% 2.8% 3.3% 2.4% 2.2% 0.9% 2.0% 2.2% 0.5% 3.3% 0.3% 0.8% 13.8% 0.2% Tie [6]
Ipsos 16–21 Nov 2023 2,260 18.4% 7.5% 17.1% 2.6% 3.2% 15.1% 2.3% 3.5% 3.0% 2.7% 1.1% 2.0% 3.0% 0.4% 4.1% 0.7% 0.4% 12.5% 0.3% 1.3% [7]
I&O Research 17–20 Nov 2023 2,473 17.1% 5.3% 16.6% 2.8% 4.0% 17.2% 3.0% 3.3% 2.6% 2.5% 1.3% 2.3% 2.2% 0.5% 4.2% 0.5% 1.1% 13.7% 0.3% 0.1% [8]
I&O Research 12–14 Nov 2023 2,323 17.5% 4.8% 12.9% 2.9% 5.0% 15.0% 2.5% 4.0% 2.2% 3.4% 1.2% 2.6% 2.6% 0.8% 5.2% 0.3% 0.8% 15.8% 0.4% 1.7% [10]
Ipsos 10–13 Nov 2023 2,052 18.0% 6.1% 11.2% 2.6% 3.2% 14.5% 2.8% 4.4% 3.3% 2.4% 1.3% 2.3% 3.0% 0.5% 6.1% 0.7% 0.4% 16.7% 0.5% 1.3% [179]
I&O Research 6–7 Nov 2023 2,190 16.6% 5.1% 11.3% 2.8% 4.0% 15.6% 3.2% 3.4% 2.0% 3.4% 0.9% 2.5% 2.6% 0.6% 5.4% 0.5% 1.0% 18.6% 0.5% 2.0% [13]
Ipsos 27–30 Oct 2023 1,924 18.0% 5.6% 10.6% 2.9% 3.3% 13.7% 2.7% 5.0% 2.7% 2.3% 1.5% 2.2% 3.0% 0.5% 7.7% 0.8% ― 16.8% 0.9% 1.2% [180]
I&O Research 22–24 Oct 2023 2,225 16.5% 4.0% 11.9% 2.7% 3.6% 16.2% 2.8% 4.4% 2.4% 3.6% 1.3% 2.3% 2.2% 0.5% 7.2% 0.3% 0.6% 17.4% 0.5% 0.9% [17]
Ipsos 13–16 Oct 2023 1,013 17.9% 4.8% 11.5% 2.9% 3.9% 12.5% 3.0% 4.4% 3.1% 1.9% 1.3% 2.0% 3.1% 0.4% 7.6% 1.0% ― 17.4% 1.3% 0.5% [181]
I&O Research 6–9 Oct 2023 2,293 16.8% 3.9% 11.6% 3.4% 3.4% 16.3% 3.6% 4.1% 1.9% 3.0% 1.6% 2.3% 2.4% 0.5% 7.5% 0.3% 0.6% 16.5% 0.5% 0.3% [21]
I&O Research 22–25 Sep 2023 2,288 17.3% 3.7% 11.5% 3.4% 3.6% 18.1% 3.0% 4.0% 2.6% 2.3% 1.0% 2.6% 1.7% 0.4% 7.8% 0.3% 0.6% 16.0% 0.3% 0.8% [23]
Ipsos 22–25 Sep 2023 1,020 17.2% 6.1% 11.4% 2.9% 3.2% 13.3% 2.4% 4.9% 3.4% 2.1% 2.2% 2.1% 2.4% 0.5% 8.2% 1.0% ― 15.8% 1.0% 1.4% [182]
I&O Research 8–11 Sep 2023 2,412 16.5% 4.1% 9.1% 2.6% 3.3% 17.6% 2.6% 4.9% 2.6% 2.7% 1.3% 2.6% 1.3% 0.7% 9.0% 0.3% 0.5% 18.0% 0.3% 0.4% [26]
Ipsos 1–4 Sep 2023 941 17.1% 6.7% 9.5% 3.7% 2.2% 12.7% 2.1% 6.2% 3.3% 2.2% 2.1% 2.3% 2.0% 0.3% 9.5% 0.5% ― 17.3% 0.3% 0.2% [183]
I&O Research 23–24 Aug 2023 2,398 13.9% 4.5% 8.6% 2.5% 3.5% 18.0% 2.2% 5.2% 2.9% 2.0% 2.1% 2.6% 1.9% 0.5% 8.5% 0.3% 0.4% 20.2% 0.2% 2.2% [31]
Ipsos 21–24 Jul 2023 1,004 17.5% 6.5% 12.1% 4.0% 3.9% 16.6% 2.5% 4.9% 3.6% 2.7% 2.9% 2.0% 2.4% 0.6% 15.3% 0.3% – – 2.1% 0.9% [38]
I&O Research 14–17 Jul 2023 1,718 15.5% 5.6% 9.5% 3.2% 4.4% 17.0% 2.9% 5.9% 3.5% 5.0% 4.2% 2.9% 1.4% 0.7% 13.1% 0.9% 0.9% – 3.4% 1.5% [39]
Ipsos 23–26 Jun 2023 1,022 18.1% 7.7% 9.6% 5.1% 4.8% 5.7% 7.0% 2.2% 6.3% 3.7% 3.6% 4.0% 1.9% 2.2% 0.7% 14.5% – 1.2% – 1.6% 3.6% [184]
I&O Research 9–12 Jun 2023 2,364 13.7% 6.6% 8.0% 4.2% 5.1% 7.3% 7.6% 2.7% 5.5% 3.3% 4.7% 5.5% 2.6% 1.4% 0.7% 17.5% 0.7% 0.7% – 2.1% 3.8% [49]
Ipsos 26–29 May 2023 1,019 19.0% 7.3% 9.1% 4.1% 4.1% 6.0% 8.3% 2.7% 6.3% 3.3% 2.6% 3.8% 2.2% 2.1% 0.7% 16.2% 1.2% – – 1.1% 2.8% [185]
I&O Research 12–15 May 2023 1,872 14.9% 5.9% 8.6% 3.2% 4.5% 7.3% 7.4% 1.9% 7.9% 3.6% 4.3% 4.9% 2.6% 1.6% 1.5% 16.8% 0.3% 1.0% – 1.8% 1.9% [52]
Ipsos 21–24 Apr 2023 1,002 16.8% 6.7% 7.0% 4.2% 5.0% 6.6% 8.0% 2.5% 6.9% 3.6% 3.3% 3.2% 2.3% 2.2% 0.4% 19.1% 0.7% – – 1.5% 2.3% [186]
I&O Research 14–17 Apr 2023 2,197 11.8% 6.2% 8.0% 4.6% 4.6% 7.8% 8.0% 2.3% 6.0% 2.8% 4.5% 5.3% 2.4% 1.6% 0.8% 19.3% 0.8% 0.4% – 2.9% 7.5% [56]
Ipsos 24–27 Mar 2023 1,005 17.2% 7.7% 7.8% 4.6% 4.9% 7.4% 7.0% 3.0% 5.1% 2.5% 2.9% 4.3% 2.3% 2.4% 0.9% 17.9% 0.8% – – 1.3% 0.7% [60]
Provincial elections 15 Mar 2023 – 11.2% 6.3% 5.7% 6.6% 4.2% 8.1% 9.0% 3.1% 4.8% 3.7% 3.0% 4.4% 2.5% 0.6% 2.3% 19.2% – 1.0% – 4.3% 8.0%
Ipsos 17–27 Feb 2023 5,291 18.6% 9.4% 10.5% 6.0% 5.4% 6.4% 6.4% 3.0% 5.7% 3.1% 2.8% 5.7% 2.3% 2.4% 0.8% 9.4% – 0.9% – 1.5% 8.1% [60]
I&O Research 10–13 Feb 2023 2,489 14.8% 7.6% 11.4% 4.8% 5.6% 8.4% 7.8% 3.1% 6.2% 3.3% 2.4% 6.6% 2.8% 1.9% 0.5% 9.0% 0.7% 0.4% – 2.5% 3.4% [187]
Ipsos 27–30 Jan 2023 1,002 18.5% 9.8% 11.2% 7.1% 5.1% 6.2% 6.7% 3.5% 6.1% 3.1% 2.6% 6.8% 2.1% 2.0% 0.6% 6.5% 0.7% – – 1.5% 7.3% [188]
I&O Research 13–16 Jan 2023 2,489 15.0% 8.1% 11.5% 3.9% 6.4% 5.9% 8.1% 2.9% 5.4% 3.6% 3.3% 7.6% 3.1% 2.4% 0.3% 7.5% 1.0% 0.8% – 3.3% 3.5% [66]
Ipsos 16–19 Dec 2022 1,005 16.9% 8.7% 11.8% 6.0% 5.3% 7.0% 8.0% 2.3% 5.0% 3.3% 3.4% 6.0% 2.6% 1.9% 0.6% 8.4% 1.0% – – 1.9% 5.1% [189]
I&O Research 9–12 Dec 2022 2,142 12.9% 7.3% 11.4% 4.3% 5.6% 6.8% 8.4% 2.5% 6.2% 3.7% 3.5% 8.4% 3.4% 1.0% 1.0% 8.5% 1.2% 0.3% – 3.6% 1.5% [66]
Ipsos 25–28 Nov 2022 1,040 17.2% 11.0% 12.0% 5.4% 5.7% 6.5% 7.5% 1.4% 5.8% 3.1% 3.1% 5.8% 2.0% 2.0% 0.6% 7.9% 1.3% – – 1.8% 5.2% [190]
I&O Research 11–14 Nov 2022 2,069 13.6% 7.8% 11.6% 4.6% 5.7% 6.7% 9.1% 3.2% 5.2% 4.1% 2.6% 7.4% 2.8% 1.5% 1.2% 8.4% 1.0% 0.8% – 2.7% 2.0% [74]
Ipsos 21–24 Oct 2022 1,021 17.3% 10.3% 13.4% 5.0% 5.5% 6.9% 6.2% 1.9% 6.4% 2.9% 3.0% 5.7% 2.3% 2.1% 0.5% 7.6% 1.1% – – 2.0% 3.9% [191]
I&O Research 14–17 Oct 2022 2,205 13.2% 8.0% 12.4% 4.4% 6.2% 7.1% 8.0% 3.2% 6.5% 3.4% 3.4% 6.7% 3.2% 1.7% 0.7% 9.1% 1.2% 1.0% – 0.4% 0.8% [78]
Ipsos 23–26 Sep 2022 1,003 16.1% 10.0% 12.5% 5.7% 4.8% 7.8% 7.2% 2.4% 6.4% 3.0% 2.0% 5.2% 2.3% 2.2% 0.6% 9.4% 0.9% – – 1.5% 3.6% [192]
I&O Research 9–12 Sep 2022 1,789 14.6% 9.6% 10.7% 4.1% 5.1% 7.4% 7.9% 3.8% 4.9% 3.3% 3.6% 7.8% 2.6% 1.6% 0.8% 9.9% 1.1% 1.0% – 0.3% 3.9% [82]
Ipsos 26–29 Aug 2022 1,007 17.1% 11.3% 11.5% 5.8% 4.8% 5.5% 7.1% 2.7% 5.8% 3.4% 1.5% 6.1% 2.3% 2.2% 0.6% 10.1% 0.7% – – 1.5% 5.6% [193]
Ipsos 22–25 Jul 2022 1,009 18.7% 11.0% 11.5% 5.6% 5.1% 5.8% 6.3% 2.8% 6.1% 3.4% 2.1% 4.2% 2.3% 2.7% 0.5% 9.6% 0.9% – – 1.5% 7.2% [194]
I&O Research 15–18 Jul 2022 1,953 14.0% 8.7% 10.0% 3.9% 5.9% 6.3% 7.5% 2.8% 6.4% 3.6% 3.2% 5.8% 2.9% 2.2% 1.1% 11.5% 1.2% 0.9% – 2.2% 2.5% [87]
Ipsos 24–27 Jun 2022 1,028 19.4% 10.2% 10.3% 5.8% 5.9% 6.3% 7.3% 3.6% 5.3% 3.3% 2.9% 3.9% 2.4% 2.7% 0.7% 7.8% 0.8% – – 1.4% 9.1% [195]
I&O Research 10–13 Jun 2022 2,151 15.3% 8.7% 9.5% 5.5% 6.2% 7.2% 7.6% 2.9% 5.5% 3.8% 3.7% 6.7% 3.1% 2.1% 0.4% 7.7% 1.5% 0.3% – 2.0% 7.7% [92]
Ipsos 27–30 May 2022 1,039 20.7% 9.3% 10.8% 7.2% 5.5% 6.9% 6.8% 3.2% 5.8% 4.0% 3.5% 4.4% 2.2% 2.5% 0.7% 4.8% 0.7% – – 1.4% 9.9% [196]
Kantar 25–27 May 2022 1,078 19.0% 8.0% 10.0% 6.0% 4.0% 9.0% 8.0% 3.0% 5.0% 4.0% 4.0% 4.0% 3.0% 3.0% 1.0% 8.0% 1.0% – – 0.0% 9.0% [96]
I&O Research 13–16 May 2022 2,356 17.4% 8.3% 9.7% 5.2% 5.3% 6.7% 8.7% 3.3% 5.3% 4.1% 3.3% 6.6% 2.7% 2.1% 0.7% 5.5% 1.0% 1.0% – 3.0% 7.7% [97]
Ipsos 22–25 Apr 2022 1,013 21.2% 9.1% 9.1% 6.0% 4.9% 6.9% 7.0% 3.2% 6.4% 3.5% 3.5% 5.2% 3.1% 3.1% 0.8% 4.6% 0.8% – – 1.8% 12.1% [197]
I&O Research 8–11 Apr 2022 2,403 17.8% 11.1% 8.1% 4.5% 4.8% 6.9% 8.5% 2.8% 5.5% 4.3% 3.0% 6.2% 2.5% 2.2% 1.3% 5.8% 0.9% 1.3% – 2.8% 6.7% [102]
Ipsos 25–28 Mar 2022 1,048 20.6% 12.2% 9.3% 6.0% 4.6% 7.0% 6.6% 2.8% 6.0% 3.6% 3.0% 5.3% 2.6% 3.0% 0.8% 4.0% 0.9% – – 1.8% 8.4% [198]
Local elections 16 Mar 2022 – 11.6% 8.7% 0.9% 11.2% 2.8% 7.8% 8.4% 1.1% 2.0% 3.9% 0.7% 0.2% 2.3% 1.0% 0.6% – 0.6% 0.3% – 35.9% 24.3%
Kantar 9–11 Mar 2022 1,197 21.0% 13.0% 8.0% 5.0% 7.0% 7.0% 7.0% 3.0% 5.0% 4.0% 3.0% 5.0% 2.0% 1.0% 2.0% 5.0% 1.0% – – 0.0% 8.0% [96]
Ipsos 25–28 Feb 2022 1,025 20.0% 12.8% 10.8% 6.9% 4.8% 6.5% 5.7% 3.0% 5.7% 3.6% 3.2% 5.3% 2.4% 2.8% 1.0% 3.2% 0.7% – – 1.6% 7.2% [110]
I&O Research 11–14 Feb 2022 2,311 16.8% 11.9% 10.3% 3.9% 4.8% 6.3% 6.8% 3.0% 5.1% 3.9% 5.5% 5.9% 2.8% 1.6% 1.1% 5.5% 1.2% 0.9% – 2.4% 4.9% [113]
Kantar 27–31 Jan 2022 1,002 21.0% 13.0% 10.0% 8.0% 5.0% 6.0% 6.0% 4.0% 4.0% 4.0% 4.0% 6.0% 2.0% 2.0% 1.0% 5.0% 1.0% – – 0.0% 8.0% [117]
Ipsos 21–24 Jan 2022 1,024 19.2% 11.8% 10.7% 6.0% 4.5% 6.3% 6.8% 4.2% 6.0% 3.4% 4.6% 4.3% 2.5% 2.3% 0.9% 4.7% 0.8% – – 1.0% 7.4% [119]
I&O Research 14–17 Jan 2022 2,230 17.0% 11.3% 9.7% 5.2% 5.1% 5.9% 7.1% 3.3% 5.1% 4.0% 6.4% 6.3% 2.8% 1.6% 1.3% 5.4% 1.3% 0.7% – 2.0% 5.7% [121]
Kantar 15–20 Dec 2021 1,004 21.0% 10.0% 12.0% 7.0% 8.0% 7.0% 6.0% 3.0% 5.0% 6.0% 5.0% 4.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 3.0% 1.0% – – 0.0% 9.0% [125]
Ipsos 17–20 Dec 2021 1,014 19.6% 13.1% 11.5% 5.5% 5.1% 6.8% 5.3% 4.0% 5.7% 3.7% 3.2% 5.4% 2.3% 2.4% 0.5% 3.8% 0.9% – – 1.2% 6.5% [126]
I&O Research 3–6 Dec 2021 2,053 18.2% 11.3% 10.0% 5.6% 5.2% 6.0% 5.8% 2.6% 5.0% 3.3% 6.1% 5.0% 2.4% 1.0% 1.1% 6.1% 1.4% 0.8% – 3.0% 6.9% [129]
Ipsos 26–29 Nov 2021 1,008 21.4% 12.8% 12.5% 6.7% 5.7% 5.2% 5.4% 2.8% 5.4% 3.5% 3.5% 3.6% 2.5% 2.3% 0.5% 4.2% 0.7% – – 1.3% 8.6% [131]
I&O Research 12–15 Nov 2021 2,021 20.1% 9.3% 10.7% 4.9% 5.4% 6.1% 6.3% 4.2% 4.4% 4.9% 5.4% 4.1% 2.8% 1.6% 0.6% 4.5% 1.3% 0.7% – 2.5% 9.4% [134]
Kantar 5–9 Nov 2021 985 21.0% 13.0% 11.0% 6.0% 5.0% 6.0% 6.0% 4.0% 5.0% 3.0% 5.0% 4.0% 2.0% 2.0% 1.0% 4.0% 1.0% – – 0.0% 8.0% [135]
Ipsos 22–25 Oct 2021 1,026 21.6% 12.0% 12.0% 6.0% 6.3% 5.9% 4.8% 2.4% 6.0% 3.6% 4.0% 4.0% 2.0% 2.4% 0.5% 3.5% 1.1% – – 1.9% 9.6% [138]
I&O Research 8–11 Oct 2021 2,052 21.2% 9.3% 9.7% 4.2% 6.0% 7.1% 7.3% 3.3% 4.8% 4.2% 5.0% 4.2% 2.8% 0.7% 0.5% 3.8% 1.1% 0.6% – 4.3% 11.5% [140]
Ipsos 24–27 Sep 2021 994 23.3% 12.1% 11.3% 5.5% 5.3% 5.9% 5.7% 3.0% 5.9% 3.4% 3.9% 3.7% 1.9% 2.5% 0.4% 3.5% 1.0% – – 1.7% 11.2% [143]
Kantar 17–20 Sep 2021 1,037 21.0% 13.0% 13.0% 5.0% 5.0% 6.0% 7.0% 3.0% 4.0% 4.0% 4.0% 4.0% 3.0% 3.0% 1.0% 5.0% 1.0% – – 0.0% 8.0% [145]
I&O Research 10–13 Sep 2021 1,990 20.4% 11.8% 10.3% 4.7% 6.1% 7.7% 6.8% 3.0% 5.2% 4.8% 3.9% 3.5% 2.2% 1.0% 0.4% 4.3% 1.6% 0.6% – 1.6% 8.6% [147]
Ipsos 27–30 Aug 2021 1,008 24.6% 13.5% 10.9% 6.5% 4.5% 6.3% 5.8% 2.9% 5.0% 3.9% 3.2% 3.5% 2.4% 2.4% 0.3% 2.4% 0.7% – – 1.2% 11.1% [150]
Ipsos 23–26 Jul 2021 1,004 23.3% 13.7% 10.5% 6.2% 5.9% 5.7% 5.0% 2.5% 5.3% 3.8% 3.5% 4.5% 2.3% 2.4% 0.6% 2.8% 1.0% – – 1.0% 9.6% [153]
I&O Research 9–12 Jul 2021 1,939 21.5% 13.7% 10.4% 4.1% 6.0% 7.2% 5.9% 3.0% 4.7% 3.5% 3.9% 4.0% 2.4% 1.6% 0.3% 3.5% 2.0% 1.2% – 1.1% 7.8% [155]
Ipsos 25–28 Jun 2021 1,011 24.6% 14.2% 10.8% 6.1% 5.3% 6.1% 4.9% 3.5% 5.1% 3.4% 3.0% 3.2% 2.4% 2.4% 0.6% 2.8% 0.7% – – 0.9% 10.4% [156]
I&O Research 4–7 Jun 2021 1,824 22.8% 13.5% 9.2% 7.9% 4.8% 6.5% 5.7% 3.5% 5.0% 3.5% 4.4% 3.9% 2.2% 2.0% 0.5% 2.3% 1.5% – – 1.0% 9.3% [161]
Ipsos 21–23 May 2021 1,010 22.9% 15.9% 11.1% 8.7% 5.2% 6.4% 4.3% 2.3% 5.7% 3.1% 3.2% 4.0% 2.4% 1.5% 0.5% 1.3% 0.8% – – 0.7% 7.0% [164]
I&O Research 30 Apr – 3 May 2021 1,914 21.5% 14.3% 9.9% 6.4% 6.5% 6.4% 5.0% 5.0% 4.4% 3.5% 3.9% 3.8% 2.0% 2.2% 0.7% 1.8% 1.3% – – 1.1% 7.2% [170]
Ipsos 16–19 Apr 2021 1,014 22.5% 16.7% 11.7% 7.7% 4.5% 6.3% 4.7% 4.5% 5.2% 3.2% 3.4% 2.9% 2.2% 1.5% 0.8% 0.8% 0.7% – – 0.8% 5.8% [173]
I&O Research 9–12 Apr 2021 1,738 21.6% 16.5% 9.5% 8.8% 6.4% 5.3% 4.2% 4.7% 4.3% 3.4% 3.0% 3.8% 2.1% 1.9% 0.8% 1.0% 1.1% – – 1.5% 5.1% [175]
2021 election 17 Mar 2021 – 21.9% 15.0% 10.9% 9.5% 6.0% 5.7% 5.2% 5.0% 3.8% 3.4% 2.4% 2.4% 2.1% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.8% – – 2.0%[b] 6.9%

Hypothetical scenarios

[edit]
[edit]
Polling firm Fieldwork
date 		Sample
size 		VVD D66 PVV CDA SP GL/PvdA FvD PvdD CU Volt JA21 SGP DENK BBB BIJ1 Others Lead Ref
I&O Research 11–14 Nov 2022 2,069 15.2% 6.3% 11.4% 3.8% 5.1% 20.3% 3.8% 5.1% 3.8% 2.5% 7.6% 2.5% 1.3% 7.6% 1.3% 2.5% 5.1% [74]
I&O Research 10–13 Sep 2021 2,207 19.4% 10.3% 10.0% 4.7% 5.7% 19.7% 4.2% 2.4% 4.9% 2.5% 3.6% 2.5% 1.2% 4.4% 2.7% 1.8% 0.3% [147]

Pieter Omtzigt joins BBB

[edit]

Pieter Omtzigt has stated he would not join BBB.[199]

Polling firm Fieldwork date Sample
size 		VVD D66 PVV CDA SP GL/PvdA FvD PvdD CU Volt JA21 SGP DENK 50+ BBB BIJ1 BVNL Others Lead Ref
PvdA GL
Peil.nl 26 Mar 2023 4,000+ 18 8 6 5 5 10 14 4 8 5 4 4 2 1 1 53 1 1 0 35 [59]

Pieter Omtzigt returns to CDA

[edit]

Pieter Omtzigt has stated he would not return to CDA.[200]

Polling firm Fieldwork date Sample
size 		VVD D66 PVV CDA SP GL/PvdA FvD PvdD CU Volt JA21 SGP DENK 50+ BBB BIJ1 BVNL Others Lead Ref
PvdA GL
I&O Research 14–17 Jul 2023 1,728 23 8 13 17 6 26 4 9 3 7 6 4 2 1 19 1 1 0 3 [39]

Pieter Omtzigt's party

[edit]

This scenario occurred on 19 August when Omtzigt founded the New Social Contract party.

Polling firm Fieldwork date Sample
size 		VVD D66 PVV CDA SP GL/PvdA FvD PvdD CU Volt JA21 SGP DENK 50+ BBB BIJ1 Pieter Omtzigt List BVNL Lead Ref
PvdA GL
Peil.nl 18–19 Aug 2023 3,000+ 25 8 15 6 6 24 5 8 3 4 2 2 2 1 12 0 27 0 2 [34]
I&O Research 14–17 Jul 2023 1,728 20 7 10 4 3 21 3 7 3 5 4 4 2 0 11 0 46 0 25 [39]
Peil.nl 15–16 Jul 2023 3,000+ 23 8 12 5 5 22 5 7 3 5 4 3 2 0 15 1 29 1 6
23 7 12 5 4 26[a] 5 6 3 5 4 3 2 0 15 1 28 1 2
Peil.nl 26 Mar 2023 4,000+ 18 8 7 5 4 9 13 4 7 4 4 5 3 1 1 17 1 38 1 20
Peil.nl 18 Dec 2022 3,000+ 19 12 16 3 5 8 11 5 7 4 4 9 4 3 0 8 1 30 1 11
Peil.nl 16 Oct 2022 3,000+ 20 12 14 4 6 10 11 4 8 4 4 8 4 3 0 8 1 28 1 8
Peil.nl 07 Aug 2022 3,000+ 19 12 13 4 5 11 12 4 7 6 5 6 4 3 1 11 2 24 1 5
Peil.nl 27 Mar 2022 3,000+ 23 17 11 7 5 9 11 4 7 6 4 8 4 3 0 5 1 26 0 3
I&O Research 8–11 Oct 2021 2,052 20 9 10 4 6 7 7 4 5 4 5 4 2 1 – 4 1 20 4 Tie
Peil.nl 12 Sep 2021 3,000+ 34 18 12 6 6 9 7 4 6 5 4 3 3 3 0 3 1 25 1 9
Peil.nl 4 Apr 2021 3,000+ 26 25 12 8 7 7 8 7 6 4 3 3 2 3 0 1 1 27 – 1
Peil.nl 28 Mar 2021 3,000+ 32 22 13 9 7 8 7 7 5 4 3 3 2 3 0 1 1 23 – 9

See also

[edit]

Notes

[edit]
  1. ^ a b Frans Timmermans as hypothetical lead candidate
  2. ^ CO with 0.4%, NIDA and Splinter with 0.3%, others with 1.0%

References

[edit]
  1. ^ "Kabinet gevallen, geen akkoord over asielmaatregelen". 7 July 2023.
  2. ^ "Sources say Rutte's Cabinet has collapsed over asylum crisis | NL Times".
  3. ^ "Exitpoll Ipsos: PVV met afstand grootste partij, gevolgd door GL-PvdA, VVD en NSC". nos.nl. 22 November 2023. Retrieved 9 December 2023.
  4. ^ "Kijk hier mee met de uitslagenavond". nos.nl. 22 November 2023. Retrieved 9 December 2023.
  5. ^ "Prognose voor de uitslag van de historische TK-verkiezingen 2023". 21 November 2023. Retrieved 9 December 2023.
  6. ^ a b "I&O-slotpeiling: PVV, GroenLinks-PvdA en VVD op gelijke hoogte". I&O Research. 21 November 2023. Retrieved 9 December 2023.
  7. ^ a b "Politieke barometer week 47 | Ipsos". Retrieved 9 December 2023.
  8. ^ a b "I&O-zetelpeiling: GL-PvdA, VVD en PVV gelijk aan kop". I&O Research. 20 November 2023. Retrieved 9 December 2023.
  9. ^ "SBS-debat werd de gamechanger". 18 November 2023. Retrieved 9 December 2023.
  10. ^ a b "I&O-zetelpeiling: onduidelijkheid kost NSC zetels". I&O Research. 15 November 2023. Retrieved 9 December 2023.
  11. ^ "BBB zakt verder weg in zetelpeiling, geen verandering bij drie grootste partijen VVD, NSC en GroenLinks-PvdA". EenVandaag. 14 November 2023. Retrieved 9 December 2023.
  12. ^ "NSC valt wat terug, PVV komt dichterbij". 11 November 2023. Retrieved 9 December 2023.
  13. ^ a b "I&O-zetelpeiling: NSC in de lift". I&O Research. 8 November 2023. Retrieved 9 December 2023.
  14. ^ "Met nog 18 dagen te gaan neemt de spanning toe". 4 November 2023. Retrieved 9 December 2023.
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