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2028 United States presidential election

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2028 United States presidential election
← 2024 November 7, 2028 2032 →
538 members of the Electoral College
270 electoral votes needed to win
 
Party Republican Democratic
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2028 electoral map, based on the results of the 2020 census.
Incumbent President

Donald Trump
Republican



A presidential election is set to be held on November 7, 2028,[1] to elect president and vice president of the United States. In addition, federal elections will be held to determine the composition of Class III seats in the Senate and all seats in the House of Representatives, while gubernatorial elections will be held in eleven states and two territories.

After winning the 2016 presidential election and losing the 2020 election, Donald Trump began a campaign for a second non-consecutive term, later securing the Republican nomination and selecting senator JD Vance of Ohio as his running mate. Trump went on to win the 2024 election against incumbent Democratic vice president Kamala Harris, making him ineligible for a third term. His term is set to expire at noon on January 20, 2029, when the winners of the 2028 election will be inaugurated as the 48th president and the 51st vice president of the United States.

As the vice president-elect of the United States, Vance is considered a frontrunner for the Republican nomination for president, with governors Ron DeSantis of Florida and Glenn Youngkin of Virginia as potential contenders. Harris and governors Gavin Newsom of California, Andy Beshear of Kentucky, Josh Shapiro of Pennsylvania, Wes Moore of Maryland, and Gretchen Whitmer of Michigan are considered potential contenders for the Democratic nomination.

Background

See also: 2024 United States presidential election
Donald Trump, the incumbent president in 2028, whose second term ends at noon on January 20, 2029

The Republican Party, represented by Donald Trump and JD Vance, came to power in the United States following the 2024 election. Trump, who was elected president in 2016 but lost a re-election bid in 2020 to Joe Biden, defeated vice president Kamala Harris, who began her campaign following Biden's exit from the 2024 election. Trump's victory was credited to a surge in inflation and an immigration crisis.[2] Republicans secured control of the Senate and the House majority.[3]

Electoral system

The president and vice president of the United States are elected through the Electoral College, a group of 538 presidential electors who convene to vote for the president and vice president. The number of electors in the Electoral College is determined through the total number of senators and representatives with an additional three representatives for Washington, D.C.. Electors cast votes for the president and vice president; the winner is elected through a majority of 270 votes. If the election ends in a tie, a contingent election occurs, in which the House of Representatives votes on the president and the Senate votes on the vice president. Forty-eight states use a winner-take-all system in which states award all of their electors to the winner of the popular vote. In Maine and Nebraska, two votes are allocated to the winner of the popular vote, while each of the individual congressional districts have one vote. Electoral votes are certified by state electors in December and by Congress on January 6.[4]

Presidential candidates are selected in a presidential primary, conducted through primary elections or caucuses. The results of primary elections, ran by state governments, and caucuses, ran by state parties, bind convention delegates to candidates. The Democratic Party mandates a proportional allocation if a candidate receives at least fifteen percent in a given congressional district, while the Republican Party gives state parties the authority to allocate all of the delegates to a candidate within the "proportionality window", set by the first two weeks of March. After the window, state parties may set individual rules.[5] A brokered convention occurs when a candidate does not receive a majority of votes on the first round of voting,[6] or when a candidate withdraws.[7]

Article Two of the United States Constitution states that for a person to serve as president, the individual must be a natural-born citizen of the United States, be at least 35 years of age, and have been a United States resident for at least 14 years.[8] The Twenty-second Amendment forbids any person from being elected president more than twice.[9][10] Trump is ineligible to seek a third term.[11]

Electoral map

Main article: Red states and blue states
This map shows how partisan states are by the Cook Partisan Voting Index. Swing states are the states in lighter colors.

Most U.S. states are not highly competitive in presidential elections, often voting consistently for the same party due to longstanding demographic differences. In the Electoral College, this results in major-party candidates primarily focusing their campaigns on swing states, which can swing between parties from election to election. These states are critical for a presidential candidate's path to victory. For 2028, the expected swing states likely include the Rust Belt states of Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan, as well as the Sun Belt states of Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, and North Carolina,[citation needed] all of which were narrowly won by Trump in 2024.[12][13][14] The Star Tribune also reported that the close margin in Minnesota would make it specifically a very likely swing state.[15]

Red states, also known as the red wall or red sea, are states that consistently vote Republican at the national level. The red wall has rarely been broken, as these states almost never swing. The last significant breach of the red wall occurred in the 1992 United States presidential election. Formerly considered swing states, such as Florida, Iowa, and Ohio, voted for Trump in all three of his elections, with increasing margins in each election (and have become reliably red in other state and federal elections) which suggests that they are no longer swing states.[16][17][18] Blue states are states that consistently vote Democratic at the national level. The blue states in 2024 include what is sometimes called the blue wall,[19] as well as Colorado, New Hampshire, New Mexico, and Virginia, formerly swing states have become reliably blue since 2008 even in Republican national victories.[20] Due to its recent record of voting Democratic even during Republican national wins, Nebraska's 2nd congressional district is also sometimes considered blue.[21]

Republican Party

Potential candidates

Potential Republican candidates[a]

Ron DeSantis

Ron DeSantis has served as the governor of Florida since 2019. DeSantis has demonstrated a potential for being a candidate in the 2028 presidential primaries, stating that Trump voters in Iowa told him that they would vote for him in 2028.[22] He appeared in a debate with California governor Gavin Newsom in November 2023, in what was viewed by NBC News as a precursor to a 2028 presidential bid.[23]

JD Vance

JD Vance has served as a senator of Ohio since 2023 and is the vice president-elect after winning the 2024 election as Trump's running mate. Vance is the frontrunner in the primary election, according to The New York Times's Nate Cohn,[24] and the "MAGA heir-apparent" according to USA Today,[25] as well as The Columbus Dispatch.[26] The Hill stated that Vance's debate performance against Minnesota governor Tim Walz in October 2024 improved his status as a presidential contender.[27]

Glenn Youngkin

Glenn Youngkin has served as the governor of Virginia since 2022. Youngkin has been reported as a possible candidate by Politico.[28] According to The Washington Post, he is "appearing to lay the groundwork" for a 2028 presidential bid.[29]

Democratic Party

Potential candidates

Potential Democratic candidates[a]

Andy Beshear

Andy Beshear has served as the governor of Kentucky since 2019. He was previously on the shortlist to be the vice presidential nominee for the 2024 election,[30] and was seen as a potential replacement for President Biden if he withdrew from the race.[31] According to The Washington Post, Beshear formed a political action committee in January 2024 to increase his national profile.[32] In October 2024, Beshear headlined an event for the New Hampshire Democrats, a key early primary state, where he promoted both himself and Vice President Kamala Harris to attendees, signaling his future aspirations.[33] In response to ongoing speculation about his political ambitions, Beshear has stated in an interview with WDKY-TV that he will "see what the future holds", without explicitly ruling out a potential presidential run.[34]

Kamala Harris

Kamala Harris has served as the 49th vice president of the United States since 2021 and became the nominee for president in the 2024 U.S presidential election after President Joe Biden dropped out of the race on July 21, 2024. She ended up losing the election to Donald Trump.[35] Harris, who has the largest donor network in the Democratic Party, may run for the presidency again in 2028 according to The New York Times,[35] as well as Politico,[36] although her loss in the previous election could potentially give her a disadvantage.[35] According to USA Today, Harris intended to run in 2028 before Biden withdrew from the 2024 election and endorsed Harris.[37]

Wes Moore

Wes Moore has served as the governor of Maryland since 2023. Moore has been mentioned by Politico after Trump's victory as one of the Democrats positioning themself for a potential presidential run in 2028.[36] It was also reported by The Baltimore Sun that if Moore is a force campaigning for Democrats in the upcoming midterm cycle, he could position himself as a national voice that would be in talks for the presidency in 2028.[38]

Gavin Newsom

Gavin Newsom has served as the governor of California since 2019. Newsom has been viewed as a contender for the 2028 presidential election by The New York Times,[39] Politico,[36] and The Washington Post after he garnered national attention by December 2023,[40] and he was seen as a potential replacement for Biden after his withdrawal from the 2024 election by The New York Times.[41] According to The New York Times, Newsom was considering a bid for the presidency by September 2023.[42] In November 2023, he appeared in a debate with Florida governor Ron DeSantis, in an event that was viewed as a precursor to a presidential bid by NBC News.[23] According to Axios, Newsom and J. B. Pritzker donated to Charleston, South Carolina mayoral candidate Clay Middleton, signaling a presidential ambition.[43]

J. B. Pritzker

J. B. Pritzker has served as the governor of Illinois since 2019. Pritzker is a potential Democratic contender, according to Chicago Sun-Times.[44] With Newsom, he donated to Middleton.[43]

Josh Shapiro

Josh Shapiro has served as the governor of Pennsylvania since 2023. Shapiro has been seen as a critical figure in Pennsylvania by Democratic strategists and officials, according to Politico,[36] as a politician who could garner votes from white working-class voters, according to CNN.[45] He was said to be a front-runner in the primary by The Philadelphia Inquirer.[46] According to The New York Times, Shapiro was seen as a potential replacement for Biden.[41]

Gretchen Whitmer

Gretchen Whitmer has served as the governor of Michigan since 2019. Whitmer has been discussed as a contender in 2028, although she distanced herself from speculation in an interview with Lulu Garcia-Navarro of The New York Times Magazine in June 2024.[47] She disavowed a movement to replace Biden.[48]

Declined to be candidates

The following individuals stated that they would not run for president.

Opinion polling

Republican primary

Poll source Date(s) administered Sample size[b] Tucker
Carlson 		Ted
Cruz 		Ron
DeSantis 		Nikki
Haley 		Vivek
Ramaswamy 		Marco
Rubio 		JD
Vance 		Other Undecided
Echelon Insights November 14–18, 2024 483 (LV) — 5% 8% 9% 9% 5% 37% 9%[c] 18%
November 5, 2024 2024 United States presidential election held.
Echelon Insights July 19–21, 2024 982 (RV) — 4% 14% 9% 10% 2% 19% 16%[d] 21%
Echelon Insights January 16–18, 2024 832 (RV) 6% — 27% 19% 18% — 1% 12%[e] 17%

Democratic primary

Poll source Date(s) administered Sample size[b] Pete
Buttigieg 		Kamala
Harris 		Gavin
Newsom 		Josh
Shapiro 		Tim
Walz 		Other Undecided
Echelon Insights November 14–18, 2024 457 (LV) 6% 41% 8% 7% 6% 16%[f] 16%
Morning Consult November 15–17, 2024 1,012 (V) 9% 43% 8% 5% 7% 27%[g] —
November 5, 2024 2024 United States presidential election held.
Morning Consult/Politico May 28–29, 2024 3,997 (RV) 10% 21% 10% 3% — 12%[h] 41%
Echelon Insights January 16–18, 2024 499 (RV) 13% 33% 11% 2% — 12%[i] 29%

Notes

  1. ^ a b Individuals listed below have been mentioned as potential 2028 presidential candidates in at least two reliable media sources in the last six months.
  2. ^ a b Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  3. ^ Sarah Huckabee Sanders with 2%; Josh Hawley, Tim Scott, Glenn Youngkin, and Kristi Noem with 1%; Katie Britt, Doug Burgum, and Elise Stefanik with 0%; Someone else with 3%
  4. ^ Sarah Huckabee Sanders with 3%; Josh Hawley, and Tim Scott with 2%; Katie Britt, Byron Donalds, and Glenn Youngkin with 1%
  5. ^ Greg Abbott with 3%; Kari Lake and Glenn Youngkin with 2%; Tom Cotton, Byron Donalds, Josh Hawley, Brian Kemp, and Elise Stefanik with 1%; Katie Britt with 0%
  6. ^ Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez with 4%; Gretchen Whitmer with 3%; J.B. Pritzker, Andy Beshear, and Cory Booker with 2%; Jared Polis and Wes Moore with 1%; Someone else with 1%
  7. ^ Alexandria-Ocasio Cortez with 4%; Gretchen Whitmer with 3%; Cory Booker, Amy Klobuchar, Elizabeth Warren, and Andy Beshear with 2%; Wes Moore, JB Pritzker, and John Fetterman with 1%; "Someone else" with 3%; "Would not vote" with 6%
  8. ^ Mark Kelly and Gretchen Whitmer with 4%; "Someone else" with 7%
  9. ^ J. B. Pritzker and Gretchen Whitmer with 3%; John Fetterman, and Raphael Warnock with 2%; Andy Beshear and Wes Moore with 1%

References

  1. ^ "Election Planning Calendar" (PDF). Essex-Virginia.org. Archived (PDF) from the original on February 7, 2016. Retrieved February 6, 2016.
  2. ^ Goldmacher, Shane; Lerer, Lisa (November 6, 2024). "Donald Trump Returns to Power, Ushering in New Era of Uncertainty". The New York Times. Retrieved November 11, 2024.
  3. ^ Sotomayor, Marianna; Vazquez, Maegan (November 12, 2024). "Republicans inch toward 'trifecta' control of House, Senate, White House". The Washington Post. Retrieved November 14, 2024.
  4. ^ Hassan, Adeel (November 2, 2024). "What to Know About the Electoral College". The New York Times. Retrieved November 11, 2024.
  5. ^ Putnam, Josh (May 12, 2015). "Everything you need to know about how the presidential primary works". The Washington Post. Retrieved November 11, 2024.
  6. ^ Cramer, Maria (February 27, 2020). "A Brokered Convention? Here's What's Happened Before". The New York Times. Retrieved November 11, 2024.
  7. ^ Bink, Addy (July 21, 2024). "After Biden drops out of 2024 race, does Kamala Harris become the Democratic nominee? Not exactly". The Hill. Retrieved November 11, 2024.
  8. ^ "The 2nd Article of the U.S. Constitution". National Constitution Center – constitutioncenter.org. Retrieved November 8, 2024.
  9. ^ "The 22nd Amendment of the U.S. Constitution". National Constitution Center. Retrieved November 8, 2024.
  10. ^ Zhou, Li (November 8, 2024). "Can Trump run again in 2028? Here's what you need to know". Vox. Retrieved November 13, 2024.
  11. ^ Vigdor, Neil (November 18, 2024). "No, Trump Cannot Run for Re-election Again in 2028". The New York Times. Retrieved November 18, 2024.
  12. ^ Mallinson, Daniel J. (November 7, 2024). "How Trump won Pennsylvania − and what the numbers from key counties show about the future of a pivotal swing state". The Conversation. Retrieved November 13, 2024.
  13. ^ Wolf, Zachary B. (November 9, 2024). "Analysis: Trump's win was real but not a landslide. Here's where it ranks". CNN. Retrieved November 13, 2024.
  14. ^ Sedghi, Amy (November 10, 2024). "Trump wins Arizona to clinch sweep of seven battleground states". The Guardian. ISSN 0261-3077. Retrieved November 13, 2024.
  15. ^ Ramstad, Evan (November 13, 2024). "Ramstad: Minnesota will be a swing state in the 2028 election". www.startribune.com.
  16. ^ Kondik, Kyle (August 29, 2023). "No, Ohio Is Not in Play". Retrieved November 8, 2024.
  17. ^ Bischoff, Laura A. (November 8, 2024). "What's the future for Ohio Democrats after huge election losses?". The Columbus Dispatch. Retrieved November 8, 2024.
  18. ^ Kephart, Tim (November 6, 2024). "Florida joins the rest of the Deep South as a Republican stronghold". ABC Action News. Retrieved November 8, 2024.
  19. ^ "The Latest: Harris keeps a focus on 'blue wall' states in the campaign's final weeks". AP News. October 17, 2024.
  20. ^ Mejia, Elena; Skelley, Geoffrey (December 8, 2020). "How The 2020 Election Changed The Electoral Map". Archived from the original on April 14, 2022. Retrieved March 19, 2021.
  21. ^ Weisman, Jonathan; Epstein, Reid J. (September 21, 2024). "How One Man's Vote in Nebraska Could Change the Presidential Election Reid J. Epstein". The New York Times.
  22. ^ Nehamas, Nicholas (January 19, 2024). "Ron DeSantis Is Quietly Starting to Build His Off-Ramp From 2024". The New York Times. Retrieved March 8, 2024.
  23. ^ a b Allen, Jonathan (November 30, 2023). "Gavin Newsom and Ron DeSantis battle for the presidency — in one election or the next". NBC News. Retrieved November 11, 2024.
  24. ^ Cohn, Nate (July 16, 2024). "How Will Vance Affect the Race? Look at 2028, Not 2024". The New York Times. Retrieved November 11, 2024.
  25. ^ Pfannenstiel, Brianne (July 17, 2024). "JD Vance is now the MAGA heir-apparent. Does that make him the front-runner for 2028?". USA Today. Retrieved November 11, 2024.
  26. ^ BeMiller, Haley (October 4, 2024). "After VP debate, JD Vance cements status as MAGA heir apparent in 2028". The Columbus Dispatch. Retrieved November 11, 2024.
  27. ^ Weaver, Al (October 3, 2024). "Debate performance gives Vance 2028 White House boost". The Hill. Retrieved November 11, 2024.
  28. ^ Martin, Jonathan (June 12, 2024). "What Happened to Glenn Youngkin?". Politico. Retrieved November 12, 2024.
  29. ^ Vozzella, Laura (July 16, 2024). "After last-minute VP frenzy, Youngkin seems to lay groundwork for 2028". The Washington Post. Retrieved November 12, 2024.
  30. ^ Greve, Joan E. (August 4, 2024). "Who is Andy Beshear, the Kentucky governor who could be Harris's vice-presidential pick?". The Guardian. ISSN 0261-3077. Retrieved November 17, 2024.
  31. ^ "How Biden's potential replacements could help — and hurt — Democrats' chances". www.politico.com. July 21, 2024. Retrieved November 17, 2024.
  32. ^ Alfaro, Mariana (January 8, 2024). "As his national profile rises, Democratic Ky. Gov. Beshear launches PAC". Washington Post.
  33. ^ Wren, Adam (November 11, 2024). "Who will lead Democrats in 2028? Meet the leaders positioning themselves to make moves". Politico.
  34. ^ "Kentucky Gov. Beshear talks Harris loss, 2028 presidential run". FOX 56 News. November 7, 2024. Retrieved November 17, 2024. 'We'll see what the future holds in the future, but, right now, my only focus is on this job, is about making sure that I continue to stand up for Kentuckians and all Americans,' Beshear said.
  35. ^ a b c Epstein, Reid; Rogers, Katie; Green, Eric (November 7, 2024). "What's Next for Kamala Harris? Here Are Six Options". The New York Times. Retrieved November 11, 2024.
  36. ^ a b c d Wren, Adam; Cadelago, Christopher; Kashinsky, Lisa; Otterbein, Holly; Schneider, Elena (November 11, 2024). "Who will lead Democrats in 2028? Meet the leaders positioning themselves to make moves". Politico. Retrieved November 11, 2024.
  37. ^ Chambers, Francesca (November 7, 2024). "Burdened by what had been: Kamala Harris couldn't convince voters". USA Today. Retrieved November 11, 2024.
  38. ^ Janesch, Sam (November 12, 2024). "Who's going to lead the Democratic Party after defeat? Why Wes Moore's name is coming up". The Baltimore Sun. Retrieved November 19, 2024.
  39. ^ Hubler, Shawn (November 21, 2024). "Newsom to Visit California's Trump Country: 'Message Received'". The New York Times. Retrieved November 22, 2024.
  40. ^ Reston, Maeve (December 1, 2023). "Gavin Newsom 2028? His early moves offer a potential glimpse". The Washington Post. Retrieved November 11, 2024.
  41. ^ a b Cameron, Chris; Nagourney, Adam (June 28, 2024). "Who Will Replace Biden at the Top of the Ticket?". The New York Times. Retrieved November 11, 2024.
  42. ^ Nagourney, Adam (September 28, 2023). "Newsom Is in the Spin Room to Pump Up Biden, and Maybe Himself". The New York Times. Retrieved November 11, 2024.
  43. ^ a b Thompson, Alex (November 6, 2023). "Newsom, Pritzker signal White House ambitions in donations to S. Carolina candidate". Axios. Retrieved November 11, 2024.
  44. ^ Sfondeles, Tina (November 8, 2024). "JB Pritzker studies Project 2025 and Trump, ponders his own political future". Chicago Sun-Times. Retrieved November 11, 2024.
  45. ^ Dovere, Edward-Isaac (November 10, 2024). "Still-stunned Democrats begin to squint toward their future". CNN. Retrieved November 11, 2024.
  46. ^ McGoldrick, Gilliam (November 7, 2024). "Welcome to the 2028 presidential election cycle, where Pa. Gov. Josh Shapiro is a front-runner". The Philadelphia Inquirer. Retrieved November 11, 2024.
  47. ^ Garcia-Navarro, Lulu (June 22, 2024). "Gretchen Whitmer Wants a Gen X President — in 2028". The New York Times Magazine. Retrieved November 11, 2024.
  48. ^ Martin, Jonathan (July 1, 2024). "Whitmer Disavows 'Draft Gretch' Movement — and Delivers A Warning to Biden". Politico. Retrieved November 11, 2024.
  49. ^ a b Smith, Allan; Korecki, Natasha; Seitz-Wald, Alex (November 16, 2024). "Democratic jockeying for the 2028 presidential election is already underway". NBC News. Retrieved November 24, 2024.
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