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2017 Kansas's 4th congressional district special election

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2017 Kansas's 4th congressional district special election
← 2016 April 11, 2017 (2017-04-11) 2018 →
Kansas's 4th congressional district
Turnout28.9%[1]
 
Nominee Ron Estes James Thompson
Party Republican Democratic
Popular vote 64,044 56,435
Percentage 52.2% 46.0%
Results by county
U.S. Representative before election

Mike Pompeo
Republican

Elected U.S. Representative

Ron Estes
Republican

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A special election was held on April 11, 2017, to determine the member of the United States House of Representatives for Kansas's 4th congressional district after the incumbent, Mike Pompeo, resigned because of his nomination by President Donald Trump as Director of the Central Intelligence Agency. Republican Ron Estes received 52.2% of the vote and won, while runner-up Democrat James Thompson lost with 46% of the vote.

Background

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Main article: Kansas's 4th congressional district

Kansas's 4th congressional district is located in the south-center region of the state, centering on the city of Wichita and Sedgwick County, which contain approximately two-thirds of the district's voters.[2][3] Sixteen other counties make up the rest of the district, including Barber, Butler, Chautauqua, Comanche, Cowley, Edwards, Elk, Greenwood, Harper, Harvey, Kingman, Kiowa, Pratt, Stafford, and Sumner counties, as well as a portion of southwestern Pawnee County.[4] Regarded as a conservative district,[5] the seat is considered to be safe for Republicans;[Note 1] the Fourth District had a Cook Partisan Voting Index of R+15 following the 2016 presidential election.[7] Going into the election, the seat had not been held by a Democrat in more than twenty years, since Dan Glickman lost his reelection campaign in the 1994 midterms.[8] At the time of the special election, the Republican Party held about a 2-to-1 advantage in voter registration in the district, with 186,850 registered Republicans to 95,788 registered Democrats.[9][10] Republican Donald Trump won the district by a 27-point margin in the 2016 presidential election, receiving 60% of the vote to Democrat Hillary Clinton's 33%. Republican Mitt Romney defeated Democrat Barack Obama by a similar 26-point margin in 2012, taking approximately 62% of the vote to Obama's 36%.[11]

Election

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On January 23, 2017, the U.S. representative for Kansas's 4th congressional district, Mike Pompeo, resigned after being nominated by President Donald Trump as Director of the Central Intelligence Agency. He was confirmed by the United States Senate. Gov. Sam Brownback had five days to declare a special election to be held between 45 and 60 days after being called.[12] The day following Pompeo's resignation, Brownback declared a special election to take place on April 11.[13]

Nominees for each party were selected by a district convention of party activists. Independent candidates were eligible to gain ballot access upon submitting 3,000 signatures within the first 25 days after the election was called.[14]

Although not initially expecting a close race, the National Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC) spent $100,000 on advertising in the last week of the campaign, and Republican politicians Sen. Ted Cruz of Texas, President Donald Trump, and Vice President Mike Pence recorded robocalls or campaigned in person supporting their nominee Ron Estes.[15][16] On April 10, the Cook Political Report moved the rating of the district to Lean Republican.[17] Estes won the election by 6.2% over political newcomer James Thompson. This not only marked a dramatic shift from the 61.6%–29.6% margin that Pompeo had been re-elected by in the previous year's regularly-scheduled election, but this was also the closest race in the district since incumbent Todd Tiahrt, who held the seat from 1995 to 2011, edged out Democrat Randy Rathburn by 3% in 1996.[18]

Republican Party

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The Republican Party selected a nominee at a convention held on February 9, 2017.[19]

Candidates

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Nominated

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Eliminated at convention

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Withdrawn

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Declined

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Endorsements

[edit]
Ron Estes

Federal Politicians

Results

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Republican Convention
Candidate First ballot Pct. Second ballot Pct.
Ron Estes 58 46% 66 52%
Alan Cobb 28 22% 43 34%
Todd Tiahrt 20 16% 17 14%
Joseph Ashby 10 8% Eliminated
George Bruce 10 8% Eliminated

Democratic Party

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The Democratic Party selected a nominee at a convention held on February 11, 2017.[19]

Candidates

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Nominated

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  • James Thompson, attorney and U.S. Army veteran[33][34]

Eliminated at convention

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Withdrawn

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  • Kevass Harding, former Wichita School Board member[19]

Declined

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Endorsements

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James Thompson

U.S. Senators

Organizations

Results

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Democratic Convention
Candidate First ballot Pct. Second ballot Pct.
James Thompson 17 44% 21 54%
Dennis McKinney 16 41% 18 46%
Laura Lombard 3 8% Eliminated
Charlie Walker 3 8% Eliminated
Robert Tillman 0 0% Eliminated

Libertarian Party

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The Libertarian Party selected a nominee at a convention held on February 11, 2017.[19]

Candidates

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Nominated

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Eliminated at convention

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  • Gordon Bakken, candidate for this seat in 2016
  • John Kostner, farmer and rancher

Results

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Libertarian Convention
Candidate First ballot Pct.
Chris Rockhold 17 85%
Gordon Bakken 3 15%
John Kostner 0 0%

General election

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Predictions

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Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[42] Lean R April 10, 2017
Inside Elections[43] Lean R April 7, 2017

Polling

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Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin
of error 		Ron
Estes (R) 		James
Thompson (D) 		Chris
Rockhold (L) 		Undecided
Lincoln Park Strategies (D-Thompson)[44] Late February 2017 500 ± 4.4% 56% 32% 4% –

Results

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The Associated Press called the election for Estes while he was leading by 6% with 88% of precincts reporting. The lead was 6.2% when all the votes were tallied.[45][46]

Kansas's 4th congressional district special election, 2017[47]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Republican Ron Estes 64,044 52.2% −8.5%
Democratic James Thompson 56,435 46.0% +16.4%
Libertarian Chris Rockhold 2,115 1.7% −1.1%
Total votes 122,594 100.0%
Republican hold

See also

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Notes

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  1. ^ For example, Harry Enten, covering the race for FiveThirtyEight, wrote that "It's a Republican district, full stop."[6]

References

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  1. ^ "2017 Special Election – Official Turnout" (XLS). 2017 Election Information. Kansas Secretary of State. Retrieved February 25, 2019.
  2. ^ Isbell, Matthew (April 10, 2017). "What to Watch for In the Kansas 4th District Special Election (Updated with Results)". MCI Maps. Archived from the original on July 28, 2017. Retrieved February 26, 2019.
  3. ^ Lefler, Dion (May 2, 2012). "Kansas Senate's Congressional district map doesn't divide any major cities". The Wichita Eagle. Archived from the original on February 26, 2019. Retrieved February 26, 2019.
  4. ^ Kansas - Congressional District 4 (PDF) (Map). 115th Congress of the United States. United States Census Bureau. April 2017. Retrieved February 26, 2019.
  5. ^ Hegeman, Roxana (April 11, 2017). "Republicans hold on to Kansas House seat in a close special election". Business Insider. Associated Press. Archived from the original on February 15, 2019. Retrieved February 26, 2019.
  6. ^ Enten, Harry (April 11, 2017). "Why Republicans Are Worried About Kansas". FiveThirtyEight. Archived from the original on October 31, 2018. Retrieved February 26, 2019.
  7. ^ "Partisan Voting Index Districts of the 115th Congress by The Cook Political Report (Arranged by State/District)" (PDF). The Cook Political Report. 2017. Archived from the original (PDF) on June 7, 2017. Retrieved February 26, 2019.
  8. ^ Clarkin, Mary (December 18, 2016). "Pompeo's move would bring another election in 4th Congressional District". The Hutchinson News. Archived from the original on February 26, 2019. Retrieved February 26, 2019.
  9. ^ "2017 Special Election – Certified Voter Registration and Party Affiliation Numbers" (XLS). Kansas Secretary of State. Retrieved February 26, 2019.
  10. ^ Lefler, Dion; Lowry, Bryan; Salazar, Daniel; Shorman, Jonathan (April 11, 2017). "Republican Ron Estes wins in 4th District congressional race". The Wichita Eagle. McClatchy News. Archived from the original on February 4, 2019. Retrieved February 26, 2019.
  11. ^ Nir, David (November 19, 2012). "Daily Kos Elections' presidential results by congressional district for 2016, 2012, and 2008". Daily Kos. Archived from the original on February 18, 2019. Retrieved February 26, 2019.
  12. ^ Evans, Scott. "If Rep. Mike Pompeo takes over CIA, how is his House seat replaced?". Retrieved December 1, 2016.
  13. ^ "Governor sets April 11 election to fill Pompeo's seat". Associated Press. January 25, 2017. Retrieved February 9, 2017.
  14. ^ Hancock, Peter (January 12, 2017). "Kansas House passes bill on special elections for Congress as Pompeo stands for confirmation for CIA". Lawrence Journal-World. Retrieved February 6, 2017.
  15. ^ Bradner, Eric (April 10, 2017). "GOP cavalry heads to Kansas ahead of close House election". CNN. Retrieved September 27, 2017.
  16. ^ "Trump records robocall for Kansas special election". The Hill. April 10, 2017. Retrieved September 27, 2017.
  17. ^ "KS-04 Moves to Lean Republican, GA-06 to Toss Up". Archived from the original on April 10, 2017. Retrieved April 10, 2017.
  18. ^ a b "Former U.S. Rep. Tiahrt exploring whether to seek old seat". Retrieved February 9, 2017.
  19. ^ a b c d Faulx, Nadya (February 8, 2017). "Kansas Parties To Select Candidates For 4th District Special Election". KMUW. Retrieved February 9, 2017.
  20. ^ Tv, Ksn (January 25, 2017). "State Treasurer Ron Estes announces run for 4th Congressional District seat". Retrieved February 9, 2017.
  21. ^ Lefler, Dion (February 9, 2017). "Estes wins GOP nomination for Pompeo seat". The Wichita Eagle. Retrieved February 12, 2017.
  22. ^ Dinell, David (February 1, 2017). "Congressional seat sought by Derby man". The Derby Informer. Retrieved February 9, 2017.
  23. ^ Salazar, Daniel (January 10, 2017). "Wichita lawyer George Bruce announces run for Congress". The Wichita Eagle. Retrieved January 13, 2017.
  24. ^ a b "Here's the latest on who's running for Pompeo's seat in Congress". Retrieved February 9, 2017.
  25. ^ "Kansas governor sets April 11 election to fill Pompeo's seat | McClatchy DC". Archived from the original on January 27, 2017. Retrieved January 25, 2017.
  26. ^ "Eric Kidwell announces bid for 4th Congressional District seat". KWCH. January 31, 2017. Retrieved February 9, 2017.
  27. ^ a b c d e f "Who wants to replace Mike Pompeo in Congress?". The Wichita Eagle. Retrieved December 1, 2016.
  28. ^ Ryan, Kelsey (January 12, 2017). "Wichita council member Pete Meitzner to run for Pompeo's seat". The Wichita Eagle. Retrieved January 14, 2017.
  29. ^ "Meitzner withdraws from Congressional race". KAKE. February 8, 2017. Retrieved February 9, 2017.
  30. ^ a b "Trump appointments have Republicans lining up for Senate, House vacancies". Retrieved December 1, 2016.
  31. ^ a b "Field narrows again in race to replace Pompeo". The Wichita Eagle. November 30, 2016. Retrieved December 2, 2016.
  32. ^ Lowry, Bryan (January 24, 2017). "Here's the latest on who's running for Pompeo's seat in Congress". The Wichita Eagle. Retrieved February 9, 2017.
  33. ^ matthew.heilman. "James Thompson announces campaign for 4th Congressional District". Retrieved February 2, 2017.
  34. ^ Lefler, Dion (February 11, 2017). "Lawyer James Thompson wins Democratic nomination for Congress". The Wichita Eagle. Retrieved February 12, 2017.
  35. ^ a b c d e Eckels, Carla (December 13, 2016). "Several Kansas Democrats Interested In Running For 4th District Seat". KMUW. Retrieved December 16, 2016.
  36. ^ Ryan, Kelsey (January 13, 2017). "Laura Lombard to run as Democrat for Pompeo's seat". The Wichita Eagle. Retrieved January 17, 2017.
  37. ^ "Former lawmaker Dennis McKinney to announce bid for Congress - Statehouse Live / LJWorld.com". Retrieved February 9, 2017.
  38. ^ "Charlie Walker 4 KS (@charliewalkerKS) - Twitter". Retrieved February 9, 2017.
  39. ^ Lefler, Dion (February 6, 2017). "15 things you need to know about the race to replace Pompeo". The Wichita Eagle. Retrieved February 6, 2017.
  40. ^ Rockhold, Chris (January 25, 2017). "Chris Rockhold". Facebook. Retrieved February 6, 2017.
  41. ^ Finger, Stan (February 11, 2017). "Chris Rockhold earns Libertarian nod for 4th District special election". The Wichita Eagle. Retrieved February 12, 2017.
  42. ^ Dave Wasserman (April 10, 2017). "KS-04 Moves to Lean Republican, GA-06 to Toss Up". Retrieved January 2, 2022.
  43. ^ "Kansas 4 Special: Not So Solid for Republicans". The Rothenberg Political Report. April 7, 2017. Retrieved January 4, 2022.
  44. ^ Lincoln Park Strategies (D-Thompson)
  45. ^ "Live results: Kansas special election". The Hill. Retrieved September 27, 2017.
  46. ^ "Live Results: Republicans Defend House Seat in Kansas Special Election". Retrieved April 12, 2017.
  47. ^ "Kansas Secretary of State. 2017 General Election Official Vote Totals" (PDF). www.kssos.org. Archived (PDF) from the original on July 9, 2017. Retrieved January 7, 2023.
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Official campaign websites

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