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2022 Lower Saxony state election

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2022 Lower Saxony state election
← 2017 9 October 2022 Next →
All 146 seats in the Landtag of Lower Saxony, including 11 overhang and leveling seats
74 seats needed for a majority
Turnout3,657,881 (60.3%)
Decrease 2.8 pp
  First party Second party Third party
 
Leader Stephan Weil Bernd Althusmann Julia Hamburg & Christian Meyer
Party SPD CDU Greens
Last election 55 seats, 36.9% 50 seats, 33.6% 12 seats, 8.7%
Seats won 57 47 24
Seat change Increase 2 Decrease 3 Increase 12
Popular vote 1,211,418 1,017,276 526,923
Percentage 33.4% 28.1% 14.5%
Swing Decrease 3.5% Decrease 5.5% Increase 5.8%
  Fourth party Fifth party
 
Leader Stefan Marzischewski-Drewes [de] Stefan Birkner
Party AfD FDP
Last election 9 seats, 6.2% 11 seats, 7.5%
Seats won 18 0
Seat change Increase 9 Decrease 11
Popular vote 396,839 170,298
Percentage 11.0% 4.7%
Swing Increase 4.8% Decrease 2.8%
Map of the election, showing the winner of each single-member district and the distribution of list seats.
Government before election

Second Weil cabinet
SPD–CDU

Government after election

Third Weil cabinet
SPD–Green

The 2022 Lower Saxony state election was held on 9 October 2022 to elect the 19th Landtag of Lower Saxony.[1] The incumbent government was a coalition of the Social Democratic Party of Germany (SPD) and Christian Democratic Union of Germany (CDU) led by Minister-President Stephan Weil.

The SPD remained the largest party with 33% and gained two seats, despite a decline of 3.5 percentage points. The CDU suffered a larger loss and won 28%. Alliance 90/The Greens recorded their best result to date in the state, taking 14.5% on a swing of six points. Alternative for Germany (AfD) made gains for the first time in any election since October 2019, improving to 11%, while the Free Democratic Party (FDP) fell just short of the 5% electoral threshold and lost representation.

Amidst an ongoing energy crisis and looming recession, commentators described the result as a victory for the incumbent federal SPD government of Olaf Scholz, who had suffered a decline in popularity and recent losses in other state elections.[2]

Minister-President Weil ruled out continuing government with the CDU and formed a new coalition with the Greens. He was re-elected as Minister-President by the Landtag on 8 November, and his cabinet was sworn in the same day.[3]

Background

[edit]

Following the 2017 Lower Saxony state election, the incumbent red-green coalition government of minister-president Stephan Weil was 2 seats short of a majority in the Landtag. Due to FDP leader Stefan Birkner ruling out any coalition with SPD or Greens, and the Greens ruling out any coalition with CDU and FDP, the only option for a majority government was a grand coalition of SPD and CDU, considering no party wanted to form a coalition with the AfD.[4]

On 22 November 2017, Weil was reelected as minister-president receiving 104 out of 137 votes as the head of a grand coalition.[5]

Electoral system

[edit]

The Landtag of Lower Saxony is elected using mixed-member proportional representation. Its minimum size is 135 seats. Of these, 87 are elected in single-member constituencies, and the remainder are determined by party lists. Voters have two votes: the "first vote" for candidates within each individual constituency, and the "second vote" for party lists. There is an electoral threshold of 5% of second vote to qualify for seats. Seats are allocated using the d'Hondt method, with additional overhang and leveling seats provided to ensure proportionality. The normal term of the Landtag is 5 years.[6]

Parties

[edit]

The table below lists parties represented in the 18th Landtag of Lower Saxony.[7]

Name Ideology Lead candidate(s) 2017 result
Votes (%) Seats
SPD Social Democratic Party of Germany
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 		Social democracy Stephan Weil 36.9%
55 / 137
CDU Christian Democratic Union of Germany
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands 		Christian democracy Bernd Althusmann 33.6%
50 / 137
Grüne Alliance 90/The Greens
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 		Green politics Julia Hamburg & Christian Meyer 8.7%
12 / 137
FDP Free Democratic Party
Freie Demokratische Partei 		Classical liberalism Stefan Birkner 7.5%
11 / 137
AfD Alternative for Germany
Alternative für Deutschland 		Right-wing populism Stefan Marzischewski-Drewes [de] 6.2%
9 / 137

Opinion polling

[edit]

Graphical summary

[edit]
Local regression of polls conducted

Party polling

[edit]
Polling firm Fieldwork date Sample
size 		SPD CDU Grüne FDP AfD Linke Others Lead
2022 state election 9 Oct 2022 – 33.4 28.1 14.5 4.7 11.0 2.7 5.6 5.3
Wahlkreisprognose 6–7 Oct 2022 900 35 27 15.5 5 10 3 4.5 8
Forschungsgruppe Wahlen 5–6 Oct 2022 1,046 33 28 16 5 10 3.5 4.5 5
Civey 29 Sep–6 Oct 2022 3,001 33 27 17 5 10 4 4 6
Forsa 1–5 Oct 2022 1,004 33 27 17 5 9 3 6 6
INSA 29 Sep–4 Oct 2022 1,000 31 28 16 5 11 4 5 3
Wahlkreisprognose 29 Sep–1 Oct 2022 957 35 27 15.5 4.5 11 2.5 4.5 8
Forschungsgruppe Wahlen 26–29 Sep 2022 1,023 32 27 16 5 11 4 5 5
Infratest dimap 26–28 Sep 2022 1,529 32 30 16 5 9 3 5 2
Wahlkreisprognose 23–24 Sep 2022 1,000 35 27.5 15.5 5 9 2.5 5.5 7.5
Forsa 15–21 Sep 2022 2,018 31 27 19 5 9 3 6 4
Infratest dimap 15–20 Sep 2022 1,156 32 28 17 5 9 4 5 4
Wahlkreisprognose 16–17 Sep 2022 992 34.5 25.5 17.5 5.5 9 3 5 9
Wahlkreisprognose 8–9 Sep 2022 970 34.5 26 17 6 8.5 3 5 8.5
Wahlkreisprognose 1–2 Sep 2022 1,001 34.5 25 17 7.5 8.5 3 4.5 9.5
INSA 31 Aug–2 Sep 2022 1,000 31 28 19 7 7 4 4 3
Wahlkreisprognose 27–31 Aug 2022 1,410 32 29 19 6 7 2 5 3
Infratest dimap 24–29 Aug 2022 1,154 31 27 19 6 7 4 6 4
Forsa 16–23 Aug 2022 2,000 29 26 22 6 8 3 6 3
Wahlkreisprognose 15–20 Aug 2022 1,100 27 30 21 7 7 2 6 3
Wahlkreisprognose 1–5 Aug 2022 1,421 29 30 23 5 6 2 5 1
Wahlkreisprognose 11–17 Jul 2022 1,036 33 27 22 6 5 2 5 6
Infratest dimap 29 Jun–4 Jul 2022 1,154 30 27 22 7 6 3 5 3
Forsa 14–22 Jun 2022 2,009 30 26 22 6 7 3 6 4
INSA 13–20 Jun 2022 1,000 31 29 17 8 6 4 5 2
Wahlkreisprognose 4–11 Jun 2022 1,100 32 26 22 6 6 3 5 6
Wahlkreisprognose 19–24 May 2022 1,000 30.5 26 24 7 5 2 5.5 4.5
Wahlkreisprognose 25 Apr–1 May 2022 1,010 34 26 20 7 6 2 5 8
Forsa 19–26 Apr 2022 2,012 33 26 19 7 6 3 6 7
Wahlkreisprognose 19–22 Mar 2022 1,005 33 28 19 8 5.5 2 4.5 5
Forsa 15–22 Mar 2022 2,010 34 25 17 8 7 3 6 9
Wahlkreisprognose 26 Feb–4 Mar 2022 1,250 35 28.5 16 8 5.5 2.5 4.5 6.5
INSA 14–21 Feb 2022 1,000 34 26 14 11 7 4 4 8
Infratest dimap 11–16 Nov 2021 1,160 36 23 16 10 7 3 5 13
INSA 12–18 Oct 2021 1,000 39 19 13 12 7 5 5 20
Allensbach 6 Sep–1 Oct 2021 1,100 34 26 15 10 7 4 4 8
2021 federal election 26 Sep 2021 – 33.1 24.2 16.1 10.5 7.4 3.3 5.4 8.9
Wahlkreisprognose 16–26 Aug 2021 1,002 39 20 17 11 5 4 4 19
INSA 3–10 May 2021 1,000 29 26 20 9 7 5 4 3
Wahlkreisprognose 13–21 Apr 2021 – 27 25 25.5 8 7 3 4.5 1.5
INSA 22–29 Mar 2021 1,052 30 26 18 9 7 4 6 4
Allensbach 3 Feb–3 Mar 2021 950 27 33 20 6 5 5 4 6
INSA 26 Oct–2 Nov 2020 1,002 27 34 18 6 6 5 4 7
Wahlkreisprognose 6–13 Oct 2020 – 31.5 31 20 5 5.5 3 – 0.5
Infratest dimap 6–12 Oct 2020 1,004 27 35 20 4 6 5 3 8
Wahlkreisprognose 24 Jul–2 Aug 2020 – 33.5 32.5 15 6 5.5 4 – 1
Forsa 19–28 May 2020 1,002 30 32 16 5 5 6 6 2
Wahlkreisprognose 26 Apr–3 May 2020 – 36.5 35.5 11 5.5 5 3 – 1
Wahlkreisprognose 19–26 Mar 2020 – 35.5 32.5 16 5 4.5 3 – 3
2019 EP election 26 May 2019 – 20.9 29.9 22.6 5.0 7.9 3.8 9.8 7.3
Forsa 1–8 Feb 2019 1,010 28 30 17 7 8 5 5 2
Infratest dimap 15–20 Nov 2018 1,006 26 28 24 6 9 4 3 2
INSA 7–13 Nov 2018 1,053 26 27 17 10 12 5 3 1
Forsa 8–22 Feb 2018 1,004 33 33 10 8 6 6 4 Tie
2017 state election 15 Oct 2017 – 36.9 33.6 8.7 7.5 6.2 4.6 2.4 3.3

Minister-President polling

[edit]
Polling firm Fieldwork date Sample
size 		Neither/
Unsure 		Lead
Weil
SPD 		Althusmann
CDU
Wahlkreisprognose 6–7 Oct 2022 900 56 26 18 30
Forschungsgruppe Wahlen 5–6 Oct 2022 1,046 55 24 21 31
Wahlkreisprognose 29 Sep–1 Oct 2022 957 55 27 18 28
Forschungsgruppe Wahlen 26–29 Sep 2022 1,023 51 24 25 27
Infratest dimap 26–28 Sep 2022 1,529 50 28 22 22
Wahlkreisprognose 23–24 Sep 2022 1,000 56 28 16 28
Infratest dimap 15–20 Sep 2022 1,156 49 27 24 22
Wahlkreisprognose 16–17 Sep 2022 992 58 27 15 31
Wahlkreisprognose 8–9 Sep 2022 970 59 30 11 29
Wahlkreisprognose 1–2 Sep 2022 1,001 59 29 12 30
Wahlkreisprognose 27–31 Aug 2022 1,410 57 33 10 24
Infratest dimap 24–29 Aug 2022 1,169 50 27 23 23
Wahlkreisprognose 15–20 Aug 2022 1,100 54 31 15 23
Wahlkreisprognose 1–5 Aug 2022 1,421 53 30 17 23
Wahlkreisprognose 11–17 Jul 2022 1,036 57 26 17 31
Infratest dimap 29 Jun–4 Jul 2022 1,154 52 22 26 30
Wahlkreisprognose 4–11 Jun 2022 1,100 60 20 20 40
Wahlkreisprognose 19–24 May 2022 1,000 56 24 20 32
Wahlkreisprognose 25 Apr–1 May 2022 1,010 63 20 17 43
Infratest dimap 11–16 Nov 2021 1,160 59 21 20 38
Infratest dimap 6–12 Oct 2020 1,004 57 23 18 34
Infratest dimap 15–20 Nov 2018 1,006 53 26 21 27

Party competences

[edit]
Polling firm Fieldwork date Sample
size 		Category SPD CDU Grüne FDP AfD Linke None/Don′t Know Lead
Infratest dimap 15–20 Sep 2022 1,156 Economy 29 32 4 8 4 1 17 3
Education 30 24 8 4 5 3 21 6
Social Justice 41 16 8 2 6 8 15 25
Environment 13 14 43 2 4 1 18 29
Crime 24 30 3 3 11 1 24 6
Budget 28 27 5 10 4 2 20 1
Saving Jobs 32 27 5 5 4 2 20 5
Prices 25 17 5 5 6 3 34 8
Transport 24 24 16 5 3 1 22 Tie
Energy Supply 22 24 15 4 6 1 18 2
Solving Biggest Problems 32 25 8 2 4 2 22 7
Infratest dimap 6–12 Oct 2020 1,004 Economy 22 44 7 5 2 1 7 22
Education 29 30 9 4 1 3 10 1
Social Justice 40 19 11 2 2 8 10 21
Environment 15 19 45 1 2 1 9 26
Crime 22 44 3 1 5 2 10 22
Migration 21 31 11 3 6 4 13 10
Agriculture 15 25 36 1 1 1 7 11
Budget 21 46 4 5 2 1 8 25
Solving Biggest Problems 28 35 9 2 3 2 7 7
Infratest dimap 15–20 Nov 2018 1,006 Economy 26 46 6 6 1 1 12 20
Education 29 26 14 3 2 4 19 3
Social Justice 39 16 16 1 2 7 16 23
Environment 16 15 51 3 1 1 12 35
Crime 25 40 4 2 6 2 18 15
Migration 26 23 14 3 6 3 22 3
Agriculture 13 23 44 3 1 1 13 21
Saving Jobs 37 34 6 3 2 2 14 3
Solving Biggest Problems 31 29 12 2 3 1 19 2

Results

[edit]
Party Constituency List Total
seats 		+/–
Votes % Seats Votes % Swing
Social Democratic Party of Germany (SPD) 1,235,921 34.2 57 1,211,418 33.4 Decrease 3.5 57 Increase 2
Christian Democratic Union of Germany (CDU) 1,147,969 31.8 27 1,017,276 28.1 Decrease 5.5 47 Decrease 3
Alliance 90/The Greens (GRÜNE) 522,198 14.5 3 526,923 14.5 Increase 5.8 24 Increase 12
Alternative for Germany (AfD) 321,135 8.9 0 396,839 11.0 Increase 4.8 18 Increase 9
Free Democratic Party (FDP) 160,791 4.5 0 170,298 4.7 Decrease 2.8 0 Decrease 11
The Left (DIE LINKE) 107,326 3.0 0 98,585 2.7 Decrease 1.9 0 ±0
Human Environment Animal Protection Party (Tierschutzpartei) 3,497 0.1 0 53,139 1.5 Increase 0.8 0 ±0
Grassroots Democratic Party of Germany (dieBasis) 45,287 1.3 0 36,603 1.0 New 0 New
Die PARTEI 13,316 0.4 0 34,159 0.9 Increase 0.3 0 ±0
Free Voters (FW) 29,289 0.8 0 30,453 0.8 Increase 0.4 0 ±0
Volt Germany (Volt) 7,377 0.2 0 16,663 0.5 New 0 New
Pirate Party Germany (Piraten) 3,294 0.1 0 14,242 0.4 Increase 0.2 0 ±0
Party for Health Research (Gesundheitsforschung) – – – 10,673 0.3 New 0 New
The Humanists (Die Humanisten) 603 0.0 0 6,528 0.2 New 0 New
Centre Party (ZENTRUM) 1,908 0.1 0 – – New 0 New
Solidarity, Justice and Change (SGV) 837 0.0 0 – – New 0 New
The Frisians 587 0.0 0 – – – 0 New
Ecological Democratic Party (ÖDP) 526 0.0 0 – – Decrease 0.1 0 ±0
Alliance C – Christians for Germany (Bündnis C) 233 0.0 0 – – – 0 ±0
The Others 190 0.0 0 – – New 0 New
Independents 6,329 0.2 0 – – – 0 ±0
Valid 3,609,304 98.7 3,623,799 99.1
Invalid 48,577 1.3 34,082 0.9
Total 3,657,881 100.0 87 3,657,881 100.0 146 +9
Registered voters/turnout 6,064,738 60.3 6,064,738 60.3 Decrease 2.8
Source: State Returning Officer

Government formation

[edit]

Having ruled out cooperation with the AfD, the SPD was able to form a majority government with either the CDU or Greens. The CDU had hoped to pursue a three-party coalition with the Greens and FDP, but after it became clear that the latter had fallen out of the Landtag, this was no longer possible. Minister-President Weil indicated a strong preference for a coalition with the Greens, which they reciprocated.[8] Four days after the election on 13 October, the SPD and Greens agreed to preliminary discussions, with the goal of finalising government negotiations by 3 November.[9] Formal coalition talks began on schedule on 26 October. Both parties avoided leaking information about the proceedings, and insisted that distribution of ministries would be dealt with after matters of policy had been settled. Nonetheless, both favoured greater investment in housing, education, and renewable energy. On the other hand, areas such as transport, climate targets, natural gas production, and police were flagged as potential difficulties.[10]

The SPD and Greens announced just a few days later, on 31 October, that negotiations had concluded successfully.[11] The coalition pact was approved by both parties[12] and signed on 7 November. It included plans for a six billion euro relief package to fight the ongoing energy crisis. The new government also agreed to raise starting salaries for teachers, establish a state housing company geared toward construction of affordable housing, and introduce a statewide 29-euro transit ticket for students, trainees, and volunteers.[13]

Stephan Weil was re-elected as Minister-President by the Landtag on 8 November, winning 82 votes out of 145 cast. Given that the governing coalition held 81 seats, this indicated support from at least one opposition deputy.[3] The third Weil cabinet was sworn in the same day, comprising six SPD ministers and four Greens.[14]

References

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  1. ^ "Nächste Landtagswahl in Niedersachsen". Lower Saxony Landtag. Archived from the original on 2021-06-28. Retrieved 2021-06-27.
  2. ^ "Germany: Lower Saxony election a boost for Chancellor Olaf Scholz". Deutsche Welle. 9 October 2022.
  3. ^ a b "Stephan Weil re-elected as Minister-President". Die Zeit (in German). 8 November 2022.
  4. ^ "Stephan Weil braucht eine neue Koalition". Zeit Online. Retrieved 18 October 2017.
  5. ^ "Stephan Weil als Ministerpräsident wiedergewählt". Zeit Online. Retrieved 22 November 2017.
  6. ^ Wilko Zicht (20 January 2013). "Wahlsystem Niedersachsen". Wahlrecht.de. Retrieved 28 September 2017.
  7. ^ "Mitglieder des 18. Niedersächsischen Landtages nach Alphabet". Landtag Niedersachsen. Archived from the original on 2021-07-09. Retrieved 2021-06-30.
  8. ^ "SPD clearly ahead of CDU - Greens and AfD in double digits". Tagesschau (in German). 9 October 2022.
  9. ^ "SPD and Greens aim for coalition negotiations". Norddeutscher Rundfunk (in German). 13 October 2022.
  10. ^ "Lower Saxony: SPD and Greens begin coalition talks". Norddeutscher Rundfunk (in German). 26 October 2022.
  11. ^ "Negotiations ended: Lower Saxony: Red-Green agree on coalition". ZDF (in German). 31 October 2022.
  12. ^ "Greens agree to coalition with SPD". Focus (in German). 6 November 2022.
  13. ^ "Government stands: SPD and Greens sign coalition agreement". Norddeutscher Rundfunk (in German). 7 November 2022.
  14. ^ "The red-green cabinet: ministers sworn in". Norddeutscher Rundfunk (in German). 8 November 2022.
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