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2022 Saarland state election

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2022 Saarland state election
← 2017 27 March 2022 2027 →
All 51 seats in the Landtag of Saarland
26 seats needed for a majority
Turnout458,223 (61.4% Decrease 8.3pp)
  First party Second party Third party
 
2022-03-27 Wahlabend Saarland by Sandro Halank–061.jpg
Tobias Hans-6779.jpg
AfD
Candidate Anke Rehlinger Tobias Hans None[a]
Party SPD CDU AfD
Last election 17 seats, 29.6% 24 seats, 40.7% 3 seats, 6.2%
Seats won 29 19 3
Seat change Increase 12 Decrease 5 Steady 0
Popular vote 196,801 129,154 25,719
Percentage 43.5% 28.5% 5.7%
Swing Increase 13.9pp Decrease 12.2pp Decrease 0.5pp
  Fourth party Fifth party Sixth party
 
2022-03-27 Wahlabend Saarland by Sandro Halank–080.jpg
2022-03-27 Wahlabend Saarland by Sandro Halank–038.jpg
2022-03-27 Wahlabend Saarland by Sandro Halank–070.jpg
Candidate Lisa Becker Angelika Hießerich-Peter Barbara Spaniol
Party Greens FDP Left
Last election 0 seats, 4.0% 0 seats, 3.3% 7 seats, 12.8%
Seats won 0 0 0
Seat change Steady Steady Decrease 7
Popular vote 22,598 21,618 11,689
Percentage 4.995% 4.8% 2.6%
Swing Increase 1.0pp Increase 1.5pp Decrease 10.3pp
Results of the election
Government before election

Hans cabinet
CDU–SPD

Government after election

Rehlinger cabinet
SPD

The 2022 Saarland state election was held on 27 March 2022 to elect the 17th Landtag of Saarland. The outgoing government was a coalition of the Christian Democratic Union (CDU) and Social Democratic Party (SPD) led by Minister-President Tobias Hans.

The election was won by the SPD in a historic landslide, capturing a majority in the Landtag and winning at least a plurality in all municipalities of Saarland, largely attributed to the personal popularity of longtime Deputy Minister-President Anke Rehlinger. This election was the first time since the 2017 North Rhine-Westphalia state election that an incumbent Minister-President was defeated for re-election, with the largest margin of defeat since the 2011 Hamburg state election, the first time since the 2013 Bavarian state election that a party received an absolute majority in a Landtag,[1] as well as the first time since 1994 that the SPD did so in the Saarland.

Overall, the SPD won 43.5% of votes to the CDU's 28.5%, a swing of fifteen percentage points between them. The Left lost all their seats after suffering a decline of ten points. The Alternative for Germany became the only minor party in the Landtag with just under 6%, while The Greens fell just 23 votes short of the 5% electoral threshold to win seats. The Free Democratic Party also failed to enter the Landtag with 4.8%. A total of 22.3% of votes did not translate into seats due to the electoral threshold, a record high in any state election.[2]

Election date

[edit]

The Landtag is elected for five years, with its term commencing when the new Landtag first meets.[3] As the previous election took place on 26 March 2017, the next election was required to take place before April 2022.

Electoral system

[edit]

The 51 members of the Landtag are elected via closed list proportional representation using the d'Hondt method. 41 seats are distributed in three multi-member constituencies, and the remaining ten at the state level.[4] An electoral threshold of 5% of valid votes is applied to the Landtag; parties that fall below this threshold are ineligible to receive seats.[3]

Background

[edit]
Main article: 2017 Saarland state election

In the previous election held on 26 March 2017, the CDU remained the largest party with 40.7% of votes cast, an increase of 5.5 percentage points. The SPD declined slightly to 29.6%. The Left fell to 12.8%, a decline of 3.3 points. Alternative for Germany (AfD) contested its first election in Saarland, winning 6.2%. The Greens lost their representation in the Landtag with a result of 4.0%.

The CDU had led a grand coalition with the SPD since 2012 under Minister-President Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer, which was renewed after the election. Kramp-Karrenbauer resigned as Minister-President after her, ultimately unsuccessful, entry into federal politics in February 2018, and was succeeded by Tobias Hans as Minister-President in March and as state CDU leader in October 2018.

Even though the Saarland is the second smallest state by population and does not represent Germany as a whole demographically, the election proved to be of pivotal importance to the following state elections and in particular the federal election later that year. New SPD lead candidate Martin Schulz led the party to a resurgence nationally in early 2017, and polls showed the SPD within striking distance of winning in Saarland. However, the clear CDU victory marked the beginning of a decline on both the federal level and in other states. This resulted in heavy losses for the SPD in Schleswig-Holstein, in North Rhine-Westphalia and, ultimately, in the 2017 German federal election. Similarly, the 2022 election was seen as a test both for the ruling Scholz cabinet and new CDU leader Friedrich Merz, and would set the tone for several more state elections throughout the year.

Until July 2021, the CDU had a solid lead in opinion polling. However, following the decline of the CDU on the federal level, the SPD surged ahead, cemented by the personal popularity of longtime Deputy Minister-President Anke Rehlinger.

Parties

[edit]

The table below lists parties represented in the 16th Landtag of Saarland.

Name Ideology Lead
candidate 		2017 result At dissolution
Votes (%) Seats
CDU Christian Democratic Union of Germany
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands 		Christian democracy Tobias Hans 40.7%
24 / 51
24 / 51
SPD Social Democratic Party of Germany
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 		Social democracy Anke Rehlinger 29.6%
17 / 51
17 / 51
Linke The Left
Die Linke 		Democratic socialism Barbara Spaniol 12.8%
7 / 51
5 / 51
2 / 51
[b]
AfD Alternative for Germany
Alternative für Deutschland 		Right-wing populism N/A[a] 6.2%
3 / 51
2 / 51
Independents
0 / 51
1 / 51

In addition to the parties already represented in the Landtag, fourteen parties collected enough signatures to be placed on the ballot.[5]

Lead candidates

[edit]

The Left

[edit]

Since at least 2017, the Saarland branch of The Left was embroiled into a dispute between Thomas Lutze, state treasurer from 2013 to 2017 and chairman since 2019, and Oskar Lafontaine, parliamentary leader since 2009. Lutze was accused of manipulating internal party elections by forging documents and fraudulently paying membership dues.[6] Public audits from 2017 to 2020 and a federal review in 2021 provided no evidence of irregularities.[7] The Saarbrücken public prosecutor's office began an investigation into Lutze in March 2021, but the case was dropped in January 2022.[8][9]

In May 2021, the state executive requested that Lafontaine and former state chairwoman Astrid Schramm resign from the party, accusing them of being "the driving force behind the internal mudslinging that has been going on for years at the party's expense". They refused.[10] After the federal election in September, Lafontaine announced that he would not seek re-election to the Landtag in the upcoming state election.[11]

On 2 November 2021, deputy state chairwoman Barbara Spaniol was expelled from the Left parliamentary faction, accused of "supporting the public attacks by the state chairman against the Left faction".[12] On 10 November, she founded the Saar-Linke parliamentary group with Dagmar Ensch-Engel, who had previously resigned from the Left faction in 2018 after facing pressure from the Lafontaine camp.[6][13] On 21 November, Spaniol was elected as The Left's lead candidate for the state election, winning 85.1% support.[14][15]

AfD

[edit]

In January 2022, the Alternative for Germany's state list was withdrawn by the party trustees shortly before the deadline for candidate submissions passed. Two members of the party's state executive had arbitrarily switched out the trustees, who then withdrew the list. State chairman Christian Wirth alleged that the four members involved did not support the proposed lead candidate Kai Melling. The party still competed in all three regional constituencies, which together provided 41 of the 51 members of the Landtag. However, due to the lack of a state list, the AfD was without a lead candidate.[16]

Greens

[edit]

At the Alliance 90/The Greens state congress on 7 January 2022, Lisa Becker was elected as lead candidate for the state election. She was one of three candidates alongside state chairwoman Uta Sullenberger and Kiymet Goektas; the former withdrew before the ballot and Becker defeated Goektas with 110 votes to 80.[17]

FDP

[edit]

Angelika Hießerich-Peter was elected as the FDP's lead candidate for the election, winning 79% of votes at a party congress.[18]

Opinion polling

[edit]

Graphical summary

[edit]
Local regression of polls conducted.

Party polling

[edit]
Polling firm Fieldwork date Sample
size 		CDU SPD Linke AfD Grüne FDP FW bunt.
saar 		Others Lead
2022 state election 27 Mar 2022 – 28.5 43.5 2.6 5.7 5.0 4.8 1.7 1.4 6.8 15.0
Wahlkreisprognose 21–25 Mar 2022 940 28 41 4 6.5 5 5.5 – – 10 13
Forschungsgruppe Wahlen 21–24 Mar 2022 2,375 28 41 4 6.5 5.5 5 – – 10 13
Wahlkreisprognose 15–18 Mar 2022 978 30 38 3.5 6 5 5.5 – – 12 8
Forschungsgruppe Wahlen 15–17 Mar 2022 1,024 30 39 4 6 6 5 – – 10 9
INSA 14–17 Mar 2022 1,000 31 39 4 6 5 5 – – 10 8
Infratest dimap 14–16 Mar 2022 1,421 31 37 4 6 5 5 – 3 9 6
Wahlkreisprognose 3–8 Mar 2022 1,219 30 35.5 5.5 8.5 7 6.5 1 – 6 5.5
Infratest dimap 8–12 Feb 2022 1,175 29 38 5 8 6 6 – – 8 9
Wahlkreisprognose 1–7 Feb 2022 1,504 33 34 5 7 6.5 6.5 4 – 4 1
INSA 17–24 Jan 2022 1,002 30 35 7 7 8 6 – – 7 5
Wahlkreisprognose 15–24 Dec 2021 1,004 33.5 38 4 7 6 6 3 – 2.5 4.5
Infratest dimap 16–20 Nov 2021 1,165 28 33 6 9 8 8 – – 8 5
Wahlkreisprognose 2–11 Nov 2021 – 29 38 4.5 8 5 9 3 – 3.5 9
2021 federal election 26 Sep 2021 – 23.6 37.3 7.2 10.0 – 11.5 2.0 – 8.5 13.7
Wahlkreisprognose 14–22 Jul 2021 – 37 29 8 6 7.5 5 – – 7.5 8
INSA 5–19 Jul 2021 1,048 36 27 7 6 9 7 – – 8 9
Wahlkreisprognose 18–25 May 2021 – 24.5 21 11 9.5 17.5 7 5 – 4.5 3.5
INSA 3–10 May 2021 1,052 31 21 14 6 15 7 – – 6 10
Infratest dimap 2–7 Nov 2020 1,000 40 22 11 8 12 3 – – 4 18
Wahlkreisprognose 22–29 Jun 2020 – 45 33 5.5 4 6 3.5 – – 5 12
Wahlkreisprognose 10–22 Apr 2020 – 40.5 32.5 7 7 5 4.5 – – 3.5 8
INSA 19 Nov–2 Dec 2019 1,000 36 24 11 7 15 4 – – 3 12
2019 EP election 26 May 2019 – 32.5 23.1 6.0 9.6 13.2 3.7 1.1 – 12.0 9.6
Infratest dimap 29 Apr–6 May 2019 1,000 37 25 12 8 11 4 – – 3 12
Infratest dimap 14–19 Jun 2018 1,000 35 26 12 15 6 4 – – 2 9
2017 federal election 24 Sep 2017 – 32.4 27.1 12.9 10.1 6.0 7.6 0.8 – 3.0 5.3
2017 state election 26 Mar 2017 – 40.7 29.6 12.8 6.2 4.0 3.3 0.4 – 3.0 11.1

Minister-President polling

[edit]
Polling firm Fieldwork date Sample
size 		None/Unsure Lead
Hans
CDU 		Rehlinger
SPD
Wahlkreisprognose 21–25 Mar 2022 940 33 59 8 26
Forschungsgruppe Wahlen 21–24 Mar 2022 2,375 30 57 13 27
Wahlkreisprognose 15–18 Mar 2022 978 31 55 14 24
Forschungsgruppe Wahlen 15–17 Mar 2022 1,024 31 52 17 21
Infratest dimap 14–16 Mar 2022 1,421 33 49 18 16
Wahlkreisprognose 3–8 Mar 2022 1,219 35.5 49.5 15 14
Wahlkreisprognose 1–7 Feb 2022 1,504 43 46 11 3
Wahlkreisprognose 15–24 Dec 2021 1,004 42 44 14 2
Infratest dimap 16–20 Nov 2021 1,165 39 42 19 3
Infratest dimap 2–11 Nov 2020 1,000 52 32 16 20
Infratest dimap 8 May 2019 1,000 39 37 24 2

Party competences

[edit]
Polling firm Fieldwork date Sample
size 		Category CDU SPD Linke AfD Grüne FDP Others/None Lead
Infratest dimap 16–20 Nov 2021 1,165
Economy 27 33 3 5 2 8 18 6
Education 26 32 4 4 3 6 21 6
Jobs 24 38 3 5 2 7 18 14
Asylum 24 26 4 9 6 3 23 2
Health Care 24 34 4 5 4 4 21 10
Transport 22 31 3 3 8 6 23 9
Social justice 15 42 11 5 3 3 18 27
Environment 12 21 3 4 34 4 18 13
Solving Biggest Problems 24 35 3 5 3 4 20 11
Infratest dimap 2–11 Nov 2020 1,000 Corona 55 14 2 2 2 0 22 41
Homeland security 49 13 5 8 2 1 20 36
Economy 48 23 5 1 3 5 14 25
Finances 44 15 7 2 2 2 26 29
Jobs 40 29 8 2 2 4 13 11
Health Care 40 27 6 1 3 1 19 13
Education 34 26 8 1 5 3 20 8
Integration 30 23 6 3 10 2 22 7
Family 25 37 8 2 8 0 16 12
Public transport 20 25 6 0 22 1 22 3
Social justice 19 35 21 3 5 1 14 14
Environment 13 11 3 1 57 1 12 44
Solving Biggest Problems 41 19 8 3 5 2 19 22

Results

[edit]
Party Votes % Swing Seats +/–
Social Democratic Party of Germany (SPD) 196,801 43.5 Increase 13.9 29 Increase 12
Christian Democratic Union of Germany (CDU) 129,154 28.5 Decrease 12.2 19 Decrease 5
Alternative for Germany (AfD) 25,719 5.7 Decrease 0.5 3 Steady 0
Alliance 90/The Greens (GRÜNE) 22,598 4.995 Increase 1.0 0 Steady 0
Free Democratic Party (FDP) 21,618 4.8 Increase 1.5 0 Steady 0
The Left (LINKE) 11,689 2.6 Decrease 10.3 0 Decrease 7
Human Environment Animal Protection Party 10,391 2.3 New 0 New
Free Voters 7,636 1.7 Increase 1.3 0 Steady 0
Grassroots Democratic Party of Germany 6,448 1.4 New 0 New
Bunt.saar – social-ecological list 6,216 1.4 New 0 New
Die PARTEI 4,716 1.0 New 0 New
Family Party of Germany 3,836 0.8 Steady 0.0 0 Steady 0
Volt Germany 2,645 0.6 New 0 New
Pirate Party Germany 1,318 0.3 Decrease 0.5 0 Steady 0
Ecological Democratic Party 613 0.1 New 0 New
SGV – Solidarity, Justice, Change 412 0.1 New 0 New
Party for Health Research 368 0.1 New 0 New
Die Humanisten 233 0.1 New 0 New
Valid 452,411 98.8
Invalid 5,702 1.2
Total 458,113 100.0 51 Steady 0
Registered voters/turnout 746,307 61.4 Decrease 8.3
Source: State Returning Officer

Aftermath

[edit]

Minister-President Tobias Hans conceded defeat on the evening of the election and claimed responsibility for the result.[19] Due to her party securing an absolute majority, Anke Rehlinger expressed her intent to govern without a coalition.[20]

Rehlinger was elected as Minister-President by the Landtag on 25 April, winning 32 votes out of 51 cast.[21]

References

[edit]
  1. ^ a b The AfD did not submit a valid state list for the election, meaning it did not have a statewide lead candidate.
  2. ^ The Left faction was reduced to six members after the resignation of Dagmar Ensch-Engel in August 2018, then to five after the expulsion of Barbara Spaniol in November 2021. Ensch-Engel and Spaniol formed the Saar-Linke parliamentary faction in November 2021, but remain members of The Left.
  1. ^ "Germany: SPD maintains winning streak in Saarland vote". Deutsche Welle. 27 March 2022.
  2. ^ "A hurdle for democracy". Die Tageszeitung (in German). 28 March 2022.
  3. ^ a b "Constitution of Saarland" (PDF) (in German). Landtag of Saarland. Retrieved 20 April 2021.
  4. ^ "Electoral system of Saarland" (in German). Wahlrecht.de. Retrieved 30 April 2021.
  5. ^ "Notice of the approved district and state electoral lists for the election to the 17th Landtag of Saarland on 27 March 2022" (PDF). Saarland.de (in German). 7 February 2022.
  6. ^ a b "Allegations of manipulation by The Left: the Saar crime scene". Der Spiegel (in German). 2 August 2018.
  7. ^ "Ex-Left leader Schramm reports party leader Lutze". Saarbrücker Zeitung (in German). 16 December 2020.
  8. ^ "Public prosecutor's office investigates Left MdB Thomas Lutze". Der Spiegel (in German). 18 March 2021.
  9. ^ "Forgery? Police report exonerates Left boss Lutze – but burdens a party colleague". Saarbrücker Zeitung (in German). 13 January 2022.
  10. ^ "Showdown in years-long Left power struggle". Saarländischer Rundfunk (in German). 6 June 2021.
  11. ^ "Lafontaine is no longer running for the Landtag". Saarländischer Rundfunk (in German). 27 September 2021.
  12. ^ "Left faction in Saarland excludes Barbara Spaniol". Die Zeit (in German). 2 November 2021.
  13. ^ "After being expelled from the Saarbrücken left-wing faction, Barbara Spaniol founds her own faction". Neues Deutschland (in German). 11 November 2021.
  14. ^ "Spaniol is The Left's top candidate". Saarländischer Rundfunk (in German). 21 November 2021.
  15. ^ "Barbara Spaniol elected top candidate of the Saar Left". Saarbrücker Zeitung (in German). 21 November 2021.
  16. ^ "State elections in Saarland: AfD must compete without a state list". Der Spiegel (in German). 21 January 2021.
  17. ^ "Lisa Becker leads the Greens Saar in the state election campaign". Saarnews (in German). 7 January 2022.
  18. ^ "State elections in Saarland 2022: These are the top candidates of the parties". Saarbrücker Zeitung (in German). 23 March 2022.
  19. ^ "SPD brings landslide victory in Saarland". Saarländischer Rundfunk (in German). 27 March 2022.
  20. ^ "SPD will im Saarland alleine regieren" [SPD wants to govern alone in Saarland]. Saarländischer Rundfunk (in German). 28 March 2022. Retrieved 29 March 2022.
  21. ^ "Rehlinger elected Minister-President". ZDF (in German). 25 April 2022.
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