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2021 Tokyo prefectural election

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2021 Tokyo prefectural election
← 2017 4 July 2021 2025 →
All 127 seats in the Tokyo Metropolitan Assembly
64 seats needed for a majority
Turnout42.39% (Decrease8.89%)[1]
  First party Second party Third party
 
Ichiro Kamoshita 200708.jpg
Chiharu Araki 2022-5-7(2)(cropped).jpg
Takagi yousuke.jpg
Leader Ichirō Kamoshita Chiharu Araki Yōsuke Takagi
Party LDP Tomin First Komeito
Last election 23 seats, 22.53% 49 seats, 33.68% 23 seats, 13.13%
Seats before 25 46 23
Seats won 33 31 23
Seat change Increase 8 Decrease 15 Steady
Popular vote 1,192,796 1,034,778 630,810
Percentage 25.69% 22.28% 13.58%
Swing Increase 3.16% Decrease 11.40% Increase 0.58%
  Fourth party Fifth party Sixth party
 
共産
Akira Nagatsuma 201006.jpg
Hirofumi Yanagase 20171010.jpg
Leader Tanabe Yoshihiko Akira Nagatsuma Hirofumi Yanagase
Party JCP CDP Ishin
Last election 19 seats, 13.83% New party[a] 1 seat, 0.97%
Seats before 18 7 1
Seats won 19 15 1
Seat change Increase 1 Increase 8 Steady
Popular vote 630,158 573,086 165,850
Percentage 13.57% 12.34% 3.57%
Swing Decrease 0.26% Increase 5.44% Increase 2.60%
  Seventh party
 
ネット
Leader Reiko Yamauchi
Party Tokyo Seikatsusha Network
Last election 1 seat, 1.25%
Seats before 1
Seats won 1
Seat change Steady
Popular vote 61,070
Percentage 1.32%
Swing Increase 0.07%
Assembly President before election

Ryōichi Ishikawa
Tomin First

Elected Assembly President

Shigeki Miyake
LDP

Prefectural elections for the Tokyo Metropolitan Assembly (令和3年/2021年東京都議会議員選挙, Reiwa 3-nen/2021-nen Tōkyō togikai giin senkyo, "Reiwa 3/2021 election of members of the Tokyo Metropolitan Assembly") were held on 4 July 2021. The 127 members were elected in forty-two electoral districts, seven returning single members elected by first-past-the-post, and thirty-five returning multiple members under single non-transferable vote.[2] Two districts had their magnitude adjusted in this election to match population changes.[3]

The results of the election saw the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) winning the most seats, displacing the regional party Tomin First no Kai to become the largest party in the Assembly. However the coalition of the LDP and their partner Komeito failed to win an outright majority of seats in what was widely described as a poor result for the LDP and Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga.[1][4]

Background

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Yuriko Koike won the 2016 Tokyo gubernatorial election as an independent candidate, and left the LDP in June 2017 to found a new local political party, Tomin First, which won a majority in the 2017 Tokyo prefectural election along with its coalition partner, Komeito. Koike was then re-elected in the 2020 gubernatorial election.

Komeito had since announced that it would leave its coalition with Tomin First in the Metropolitan Assembly, instead seeking to enter into a governing coalition with the Liberal Democratic Party (both parties make up the ruling coalition in the National Diet). Koike was hospitalized on 22 June 2021 due to severe fatigue, however she was discharged on 30 June and made surprise appearances on 3 July, the final day of campaigning, to campaign in support of Tomin First candidates in various districts across central Tokyo.[5]

The election had been described as a potential bellwether for the upcoming general election.[6]

Electoral districts

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Most districts are coterminous with a municipality (-ku/-shi/-chō/-son) of the same name. The following districts comprise multiple municipalities:[7]

Candidates

[edit]
Incumbents and candidates (as of June 9) for the 2021 election
Party Incumbents[8] Candidates
Incumbents Previous

representatives

New Total (Women)
Tomin First no Kai (Tomin)[9] 46 42 0 5 47 (18)
Liberal Democratic Party (LDP)[10] 25 22 15 23 60 (9)
Kōmeitō (Kōmei)[11] 23 17 0 6 23 (3)
Japanese Communist Party (JCP)[12] 18 16 1 14 31 (18)
Constitutional Democratic Party (CDP)[13] 7 7 2 19 28 (8)
Tokyo Seikatsusha Network (Net)[14] 1 0 1 2 3 (3)
Nippon Ishin no Kai (Ishin)[15] 1 0 2 11 13 (3)
Democratic Party For the People (DPFP)[16] 0 0 3 1 4 (0)
Reiwa Shinsengumi (Reiwa)[17] 0 0 0 3 3 (3)
Other 59
Independent
Total 126

(1 vacancy)

271

Results

[edit]

The majority Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) won the most seats in the election, displacing the regional party Tomin First no Kai as the largest party in the Assembly, while the LDP's coalition partner Komeito maintained their 23 seats for the sixth election in a row. However the LDP/Komeito coalition failed to win an outright majority of seats, an outcome which was widely described as a poor showing for the LDP and a manifestation of public dissatisfaction with Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga's handling of the COVID-19 pandemic and the delayed 2020 Olympic Games.[1]

Tomin First lost 15 seats, becoming the second largest party in the Assembly, however this was described[by whom?] as a better than expected result for the party as most polls and forecasts[citation needed] prior to the election projected the party losing far more seats. Some analysts attributed Tomin First's unexpectedly strong result to the continuing popularity of Tokyo Governor Yuriko Koike, whose policies and personal image form the backbone of the party's appeal, despite Koike no longer serving as the leader of the party.[1]

The newly organized centre-left opposition Constitutional Democratic Party gained eight seats while the Japanese Communist Party gained one, in what some analysts described as an indication of energized opposition to the LDP.[4] The regional Tokyo Seikatsusha Network and Osaka-based centre-right Nippon Ishin no Kai both maintained one seat each in the Assembly. The centre to centre-right Democratic Party For the People and the left-wing populist party Reiwa Shinsengumi both contested the Assembly for the first time; however, neither party won any seats.

PartyVotes%Seats+/–
Liberal Democratic Party1,192,79625.6933+8
Tomin First no Kai1,034,77822.2831−15
Komeito630,81013.58230
Japanese Communist Party630,15813.5719+1
Constitutional Democratic Party573,08612.3415New
Nippon Ishin no Kai165,8503.5710
Tokyo Seikatsusha Network61,0701.3210
Reiwa Shinsengumi37,2990.800New
Democratic Party For the People31,1010.670New
NHK Party2,0280.0400
Other parties49,3731.0600
Independents235,3035.074−1
Total4,643,652100.00127–
Registered voters/turnout11,157,715–
Source: Senkyo Metro Tokyo

Opinion polling

[edit]
Fieldwork date Polling firm Tomin LDP JCP NKP CDP Net Ishin DPFP Reiwa N-Koku Others Ind. Und./
no ans. 		Lead
26-27 Jun go2senkyo 9.7 23.4 12.3 8.4 10.3 0.6 1.6 0.7 1.2 0.5 1.8 29.6 13.7
26-27 Jun Asahi Shimbun 15 24 7 5 9 1 2 1 2 0 1 7 41.6 9
25-27 Jun Yomiuri Shimbun 17 23 8 9 8 1 2 1 8 22 6
25-27 Jun Kyodo 12.1 31.8 13.1 14.1 7.1 17.7
19-20 Jun go2senkyo 6.9 18.6 10.0 6.1 10.4 0.6 2.5 0.4 1.4 0.4 1.2 41.6 8.2
12-13 Jun go2senkyo 5.6 19.4 8.9 6.2 11.3 1.0 2.1 1.0 0.8 0.8 2.9 40.0 8.1
28-30 May Yomiuri 11 30 6 7 8 3 9 25 19
22–23 May Tokyo Shimbun-JX 9.6 19.3 12.9 3.4 14.0 1.6 3.4 0.5 2.0 0.5 2.8 — 30.0 5.3
2 July 2017 Election 33.7 22.5 13.8 13.1 — 1.3 1.0 — 1.0 6.7 11.2

See also

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Notes

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  1. ^ The current CDP is a successor of the former Democratic Party, which won 5 seats and 6.90% of the popular vote in the 2017 election.

References

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  1. ^ a b c d "LDP, Komeito fail to win majority in Tokyo assembly". The Mainichi Shimbun. 2021-07-05. Archived from the original on 2021-08-21. Retrieved 2021-07-05.
  2. ^ "東京都議会議員の定数及び選挙区一覧表 | 東京都選挙管理委員会". www.senkyo.metro.tokyo.lg.jp. Retrieved 2021-06-05.
  3. ^ "東京都議会、定数是正「1増1減」成立". 日本経済新聞 (in Japanese). 2020-07-17. Retrieved 2021-06-05.
  4. ^ a b "LDP, Komeito fail in majority bid for Tokyo assembly poll". The Asahi Shimbun. 2021-07-05. Retrieved 2021-07-05.
  5. ^ Sugiyama, Satoshi (2021-07-05). "Underwhelming Tokyo result offers LDP a warning for general election". The Japan Times. Retrieved 2021-07-07.
  6. ^ "LDP, Komeito fail to win majority in Tokyo assembly". Mainichi Shimbun. 2021-07-05. Archived from the original on 2021-08-21. Retrieved 2021-07-05.
  7. ^ "選挙区地図 ｜ 東京都議会". www.gikai.metro.tokyo.jp. Retrieved 2021-06-05.
  8. ^ "会派等別議員名簿 ｜ 東京都議会". www.gikai.metro.tokyo.jp. Retrieved 2021-06-09.
  9. ^ "2021 都議会議員選挙 特設サイト". 都民ファーストの会 (in Japanese). Archived from the original on 2021-06-09. Retrieved 2021-06-09.
  10. ^ "命を守る。東京を動かす。都議会議員選挙2021【TOKYO自民党】". 命を守る。東京を動かす。都議会議員選挙2021【TOKYO自民党】 (in Japanese). Archived from the original on 2021-06-09. Retrieved 2021-06-09.
  11. ^ "2021 都議会議員選挙 特設サイト | 公明党". 2021 都議会議員選挙 特設サイト | 公明党 (in Japanese). Retrieved 2021-06-09.
  12. ^ "2021東京都議選の予定候補". 日本共産党東京都委員会 (in Japanese). Retrieved 2021-06-09.
  13. ^ "東京都議会議員選挙 - 立憲民主党". cdp-japan.jp. Archived from the original on 2021-06-11. Retrieved 2021-06-30.
  14. ^ www (20 January 2021). "2021都議選 東京・生活者ネットワーク候補予定者 擁立決定！". 東京・生活者ネットワーク (in Japanese). Retrieved 2021-06-09.
  15. ^ ishin. "2021年執行予定 東京都議会議員選挙 公認候補予定者のお知らせ". 東京維新の会 (in Japanese). Archived from the original on 2021-06-09. Retrieved 2021-06-09.
  16. ^ "国民民主党東京都連 official site-". 国民民主党 (in Japanese). Retrieved 2021-06-09.
  17. ^ "東京都議会議員選挙2021 特設ページ | れいわ新選組" (in Japanese). 2021-03-19. Retrieved 2021-06-09.
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