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2014 Tokyo gubernatorial election

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2014 Tokyo gubernatorial election
← 2012 9 February 2014 2016 →
Turnout46.14% Decrease 16.46 pp
 
Yōichi Masuzoe, Governor of Tokyo (cropped).jpg
宇都宮健児 (cropped).png
Candidate Yōichi Masuzoe Kenji Utsunomiya
Party Independent Independent
Popular vote 2,112,979 982,595
Percentage 42.86% 19.93%
Supported by LDP, NK JCP, SDP, GJ
 
Morihiro Hosokawa cropped 2 Morihiro Hosokawa 19930809.jpg
Toshio Tamogami 2014-02-02 (cropped).jpg
Candidate Morihiro Hosokawa Toshio Tamogami
Party Independent Independent
Popular vote 956,063 610,865
Percentage 19.39% 12.39%
Supported by DPJ, PLP, UP ISS
Election results by municipalities.
Governor before election

Naoki Inose
Independent

Elected Governor

Yoichi Masuzoe
Independent

The 2014 Tokyo gubernatorial election took place on February 9, 2014 to replace outgoing Governor Naoki Inose, who resigned effective December 24, 2013.[1] Yōichi Masuzoe was declared the winner in exit polling, with a substantial lead over the fifteen other candidates.[2] His final tally was 2,112,979 votes (42.86%), with his two closest competitors Morihiro Hosokawa and Kenji Utsunomiya failing to break the 20% mark.[3] Total turnout was 4,930,251 (46.14%), significantly lower than the 62.6% turnout in the 2012 election.[4]

Background

[edit]

Tokyo governor Naoki Inose abruptly resigned in December 2013 following a month-long investigation into a political funds scandal. His resignation came in the midst of various preparations for the 2020 Summer Olympics, which had been awarded to Tokyo earlier in the year, including the formation of an organization committee (due by February 2014), the allocation of 10.3 billion yen in Olympics-related funding, and negotiation with the national government over the construction of the new National Olympic Stadium.[5]

The election campaign was set to officially begin on January 23, 2014[1] and was one of three critical electoral tests for the ruling Liberal Democratic Party in early 2014, along with the January 19 mayoral election in Nago, Okinawa (widely viewed as a referendum on the relocation plan of Marine Corps Air Station Futenma), in which the incumbent mayor, who is against the plan, was re-elected, and the late February gubernatorial election in Yamaguchi Prefecture.[6]

Yoichi Masuzoe was initially seen as the strongest candidate in the race due to his popularity and support from the LDP. In mid-January, former Prime Minister Morihiro Hosokawa emerged as a second strong candidate with the backing of former LDP Prime Minister Junichirō Koizumi, with his platform focusing on opposition to the restart of nuclear power generation in Japan.[7] Prime Minister Shinzō Abe stated his concern that the campaign would focus on the nuclear issue at the expense of other issues.[8] Masuzoe, who supported a gradual phase-out of nuclear power, stated that "choosing the Tokyo governor based (solely) on whether they favor or oppose nuclear power seems odd."[7] Masuzoe was endorsed by the LDP and Komeito, while Hosokawa was endorsed by the Democratic Party of Japan, People's Life Party and Unity Party (Japan), and the Social Democratic Party of Japan and Japanese Communist Party endorsed former Japan Federation of Bar Associations president Kenji Utsunomiya.[9]

There were 10.8 million eligible voters, a new all-time high.[10] Of these, 7.4 million lived in special wards, 3.3 million in cities, less than 0.1 million in the towns and villages in West Tama and on the islands.[11] In the first three days of early voting (possible from the day after the official campaign start), turnout increased tenfold compared to the same period in the previous gubernatorial election of 2012; but in 2012, the national House of Representatives election was held together with the gubernatorial election, and the legal campaign period for Representatives elections is twelve days – five days less than in elections for prefectural governors, so many early voters in 2012 waited until the official start of the lower house campaign to cast their ballots in both elections. Compared to the 2011 gubernatorial election when no national election was held simultaneously, turnout in the first three days of early voting increased by 60%.[12] A blizzard struck eastern Japan on the day before the election, bringing the most snow seen in Tokyo in two decades. Residual snow on the streets impacted voter turnout on election day.[13]

On the remote island of Haha-jima in Ogasawara village, the election was held one day earlier than in the rest of Tokyo (kuriage-tōhyō), i.e. the election day is February 8.[14]

Polling

[edit]

A poll conducted shortly after Hosokawa's announcement, as reported by the Sankei-affiliated news site ZAKZAK, showed that 40% of Tokyo voters supported Masuzoe, 16% supported Hosokawa, 15% supported Utsunomiya and 6% supported Tamogami.[15] Masuzoe maintained the lead over Hosokawa, Utsunomiya and Tamogami in four separate polls conducted January 23–24 by Mainichi Shimbun, Kyodo News, Sankei Shimbun and Fuji Television.[16] This ranking remained unchanged in a February 1–2 polling by Mainichi, although 30% of voters remained undecided.[17] These outlets refrained from disclosing actual poll numbers in order to comply with Japanese election laws.[18]

An electoral simulation by the LDP in January, as reported by the weekly magazine Shukan Post, resulted in 42% voting for Hosokawa, 39% for Masuzoe, 10% for Utsunomiya and 7% for Tamogami, assuming a typical turnout of their respective supporting bases (around 55% of the total electorate), with the caveat that a large turnout by anti-nuclear supporters could tip the balance further against Masuzoe.[19]

Result

[edit]
Tokyo gubernatorial election, 2014[3][4]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Independent (Supported by Liberal Democratic, Komeito) Yoichi Masuzoe 2,112,979 42.86% N/A
Independent (Supported by Social Democratic, Communist) Kenji Utsunomiya 982,595 19.93% Increase 5.35%
Independent (Supported by Democrats, People's Life, and Unity) Morihiro Hosokawa 956,063 19.39% N/A
Independent Toshio Tamogami 610,865 12.39% N/A
Independent Kazuma Ieiri 88,936 1.8% N/A
Independent Yoshiro Nakamatsu 64,774 1.31% Decrease 0.64%
Smile Party Mac Akasaka 15,070 0.31% Decrease 0.27%
Turnout 4,930,251 46.14% Decrease 16.46%

Kenji Himeji, Masaichi Igarashi, Hiroshi Kaneko, Chikanori Matsuyama, Tomoharu Nakagawa, Hisao Naito, Takashi Negami, Eiichi Sato and Tatsuo Suzuki also appeared on the ballot but won less than 5,000 votes each. 1.24% of votes were invalid.[20]

Exit polls by the Asahi Shimbun found that Masuzoe was the most popular candidate in each age segment but had particularly strong support from elderly voters, winning 55% of voters in the 70+ age range versus 36% of voters in their twenties and 38% of voters in their thirties. Tamogami polled strongest among voters in their twenties, gaining 24% of the vote in this age range, but his support among voters in the 60+ age range was in single digits. Hosokawa was second-ranked among voters in their forties, fifties and sixties while Utsunomiya was second-ranked among voters in their thirties and seventies.[21]

Voter turnout was highest in the remote island villages of Mikurajima (80.16%) and Aogashima (75.00%), and lowest in the western suburb of Mizuho (35.61%).[4]

Candidates

[edit]

There were sixteen candidates in the race, fifteen of whom ran as independents (Mac Akasaka was the only candidate claiming a party affiliation).[22]

  • Yoichi Masuzoe, former Health and Welfare Minister, entered the race as an independent with the support of the Liberal Democratic Party and Komeito.[23] he also enjoys widespread support within the Democratic Party of Japan[24] and was endorsed by the Tokyo chapter of RENGO.[25] The DPJ considered backing Masuzoe instead of standing their own candidate; the LDP was highly critical of Masuzoe for leaving the LDP in 2010 to start his own party, but backed him "because there was no other candidate that could win."[23] Shigeru Uchida, head of the LDP delegation in the Tokyo metropolitan assembly, had urged the party to avoid endorsing another "celebrity candidate," expressing a preference for a candidate with administrative experience, while Prime Minister and LDP President Shinzō Abe said he emphasized name recognition. Voices within the party supported Masuzoe as a compromise between both considerations.[26] The LDP national executive declared three criteria for adoption as its candidate in the race as: (i) an international outlook; (ii) an ardent supporter of the Tokyo 2020 Games; and iii) capability to have a trustworthy relationship with the Tokyo Metropolitan Assembly.[27] He was previously a candidate in the 1999 gubernatorial election, where he won over 830,000 votes.
  • Kenji Utsunomiya, an attorney who came in second behind Inose in the 2012 gubernatorial election, was the first person to formally declare his candidacy,[23] and called for providing a check against Prime Minister Shinzō Abe, closing all nuclear plants, restricting spending on the Olympics and making Tokyo "a secure city where people can live and work."[28] After the emergence of Hosokawa's candidacy, former Prime Minister Naoto Kan called on Utsunomiya to leave the race out of fears that he would split the anti-nuclear vote in Tokyo.[29] Utsunomiya stated that he would like to have an in-depth policy discussion with Hosokawa but would not back down from his campaign.[30]
Morihiro Hosokawa campaigning from a speaker truck at Takadanobaba Station, February 7
  • Morihiro Hosokawa, former Prime Minister, decided to run on a platform of eliminating nuclear power in Japan, reducing energy consumption and overhauling the welfare system. Former LDP Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi reportedly pressed Hosokawa to run on an anti-nuclear platform,[31] and stood next to Hosokawa as he announced his candidacy. Although Tokyoites were overwhelmingly in favor of a phase-out of nuclear power,[citation needed] Hosokawa's age (76 at the time of the election) and minimal contact with Tokyo, as well as the circumstances surrounding his resignation as prime minister in 1994, were potential clouds to his candidacy.[32]
  • Toshio Tamogami, retired General and former Chief of Staff of the Japan Air Self-Defense Force, entered the race as an independent with the support of former Governor Shintaro Ishihara and several other members of the Japan Restoration Party (although not the party itself.)[33] He was previously approached by the Liberal Democratic Party to run in the 2010 House of Councillors election but turned down their request. His platform calls for strengthening disaster countermeasures in Tokyo through cooperation with the SDF.[34] He is known as a nationalist figure, arguing that Japan was not an aggressor during World War II and supporting official visits to Yasukuni Shrine; his views led to his removal as JASDF Chief of Staff in 2008.[35]
  • Kazuma Ieiri, founder of several internet start-up companies, announced his candidacy after soliciting 1,000 retweets on Twitter. He proposed an open platform for citizens to decide policy for the Tokyo government.[36]
  • Yoshiro Nakamatsu, a celebrity inventor and perennial candidate popularly known as Dr. NakaMats, entered the race as an independent.[37] The 2014 election is his seventh campaign for governor of Tokyo.[38]
  • Mac Akasaka, perennial candidate and leader of the Smile Party, announced he would enter the race after an outpouring of comments on Twitter urging him to run.[39] He previously ran in the 2012 gubernatorial election.[40]

Others considered to be candidates

[edit]

The LDP considered a number of candidates prior to endorsing Masuzoe, conducting a private telephone poll in December 2013 which named Masuzoe, former TV comedian and Miyazaki Prefecture governor Hideo Higashikokubaru and LDP legislators Nobuteru Ishihara, Satsuki Katayama, Yuriko Koike and Tamayo Marukawa.[41] Higashikokubaru came in second to Masuzoe,[26][41] but on January 10 he stated that he had "2,000%" "no scheme, plan, or intention" to run.[42] Hakubun Shimomura and Seiko Hashimoto were also rumored to be potential LDP candidates, but were excluded from consideration by the party due to existing duties related to the 2020 Summer Olympics and 2014 Winter Olympics respectively.[26] Akira Ikegami, a television journalist, was also included in the LDP poll,[26] but said that he had no interest in running and that he had already agreed to cover the election for the Tokyo MX television station.[43] Hiroshi Sato, former Vice Governor of Tokyo, was approached by LDP lawmakers in the Tokyo metropolitan assembly but declined to run.[44]

Saburō Kawabuchi, former head coach of the Japan national football team, was reported in December 2013 to be a compromise candidate between Prime Minister Shinzō Abe and former Governor Shintaro Ishihara, with his athletic background being viewed as an advantage in the run-up to the Tokyo Olympics.[45] Abe and Ishihara eventually endorsed Masuzoe and Tamogami respectively.

The DPJ approached baseball player Atsuya Furuta and journalist Shuntaro Torigoe, both of whom refused to run.[44] Renhō Murata, former State Minister of Government Revitalization, was widely viewed as a likely candidate from the DPJ.[5][46]

Antonio Inoki, a professional wrestler and Diet member, was reportedly considering announcing his candidacy. He had been suspended from the Japan Restoration Party following an unauthorized November 2013 visit to North Korea, and was reportedly planning to decide whether to resign from the Diet to run for governor following his return from a second visit to North Korea in January 2014.[47]

Junichirō Koizumi, former Prime Minister and nuclear power critic, declined to run after reportedly being approached by Yoshimi Watanabe of Your Party.[48]

Setsuo Yamaguchi, a real estate appraiser and head of a political organization, planned to run on a platform of revising the plans for rebuilding the National Olympic Stadium. This would be his third run for governor of Tokyo, his last appearance being in the 2007 election in which he received 0.06% of the total votes cast.[38] He withdrew from the race on January 8 citing a lack of funds.[38] Shigenobu Yoshida, former Japanese ambassador to Nepal, also briefly entered the race as an independent on a platform of reducing the budget for the Olympics. He previously ran in the 2012 election in which he received 1.23% of the total votes cast.[38]

References

[edit]
  1. ^ a b "東京都知事選、２月９日投開票に決定 都選管". 日本経済新聞. 25 December 2013. Retrieved 25 December 2013.
  2. ^ "Masuzoe projected to be next Tokyo governor". NHK World. 9 February 2014. Archived from the original on 22 February 2014. Retrieved 9 February 2014.
  3. ^ a b "平成26年 東京都知事選挙 開票結果". 東京都選挙管理委員会. Archived from the original on 10 February 2014. Retrieved 10 February 2014.
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  5. ^ a b Martin, Alexander (20 December 2013). "Race to Become Next Tokyo Governor Kicks Off". Wall Street Journal Japan Real Time. Retrieved 24 December 2013.
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  7. ^ a b Martin, Alexander (14 January 2014). "Ex-PMs Join Hands In Tokyo Governor's Race". Wall Street Journal Japan Real Time. Retrieved 15 January 2014.
  8. ^ 小野, 甲太郎 (13 January 2014). "安倍首相、「脱原発」争点化に警戒感 都知事選". 朝日新聞. Retrieved 13 January 2014.
  9. ^ "自公は舛添氏、民・結い・生が細川氏 都知事選". 日本経済新聞. 19 January 2014. Retrieved 20 January 2014.
  10. ^ Nihon Keizai Shimbun, 23 January 2014: 都知事選、有権者最多の1082万人 (limited access)
  11. ^ Tokyo Metropolitan election commission, 22 January 2014: 平成２６年２月９日執行東京都知事選挙における選挙人名簿登録者数 Archived 2014-02-02 at the Wayback Machine
  12. ^ Tōkyō Shimbun, 28 January 2014: 都知事選　期日前投票数　前々回同時期の１．６倍 Archived 2014-02-03 at the Wayback Machine
  13. ^ Martin, Alexander (9 February 2014). "Snow Hits Tokyo Election Turnout". Wall Street Journal Japan Real Time. Retrieved 10 February 2014.
  14. ^ "Ogasawara Newsletter No. 624, election special edition, 10 January 2014" (PDF). Archived from the original (PDF) on 2 February 2014. Retrieved 1 February 2014.
  15. ^ "細川氏を直撃する"三重苦" 小泉氏の支援も効果薄く… ３位以下の可能性も". ZAKZAK. 21 January 2014. Retrieved 22 January 2014.
  16. ^ "都知事選、舛添氏「優勢」か 各種世論調査で細川氏らをリード". J-CAST News. 25 January 2014. Retrieved 27 January 2014.
  17. ^ "Masuzoe ahead of pack in Tokyo gubernatorial race: Mainichi poll". Mainichi Shimbun. 3 February 2014. Archived from the original on 21 February 2014. Retrieved 3 February 2014.
  18. ^ Martin, Alexander (27 January 2014). "Polls Show Ex-PM Hosokawa's Tokyo Governor Bid Not Gaining Traction". Wall Street Journal Japan Real Time. Retrieved 28 January 2014.
  19. ^ "都知事選投票率55％で宇都宮60万、舛添230万、細川250万予測". 週間ポスト. 20 January 2014. Retrieved 21 January 2014. 「有権者総数は約1080万人。票読みは投票率55％という前提で行なった。宇都宮氏は共産党の基礎票に近い約60万票、田母神氏も約40万票にとどまり、舛添氏は自公の基礎票の目一杯で約230万票、対する細川氏は250万票前後になり舛添氏を逆転するという結果だった」（自民党幹部）
  20. ^ Tokyo Metropolitan electoral commission: 開票結果内訳 Archived 2014-02-22 at the Wayback Machine
  21. ^ "舛添氏、高齢層から圧倒的な支持 都知事選出口調査分析". Asahi Shimbun. 9 February 2014. Retrieved 10 February 2014.
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  25. ^ "舛添氏と連合東京が協定 都知事選、細川氏は小泉氏側と詰め". 日本経済新聞. 21 January 2014. Retrieved 21 January 2014.
  26. ^ a b c d "都知事選「勝てる候補」は？ 自民、７氏選び世論調査". 日本経済新聞. 21 December 2013. Retrieved 24 December 2013.
  27. ^ "LDP outlines criteria for candidate in Tokyo gubernatorial election". Japan Today. 2 January 2014. Retrieved 4 January 2014.
  28. ^ "Utsunomiya 1st to declare his candidacy for Tokyo governor". Japan Today. 29 December 2013. Retrieved 6 January 2014.
  29. ^ "菅元首相、細川氏にエール「宇都宮氏は当選できない」". MSN Sankei News. 9 January 2014. Archived from the original on 26 January 2014. Retrieved 13 January 2014.
  30. ^ "Skepticism voiced over Hosokawa's possible Tokyo candidacy". The Yomiuri Shimbun. 12 January 2014. Retrieved 13 January 2014.
  31. ^ "都知事選、「原発争点」に自民警戒 小泉氏カギに 民主は「細川氏が最有力候補」". 日本経済新聞. 10 January 2014. Retrieved 11 January 2014.
  32. ^ Sieg, Linda (15 January 2014). "Koizumi backs Hosokawa for Tokyo governor, targeting Abe's nuclear policy". Thomson Reuters. Retrieved 15 January 2014.
  33. ^ "田母神氏、都知事選出馬を正式表明 元航空幕僚長". 日本経済新聞. 7 January 2014. Retrieved 8 January 2014.
  34. ^ "田母神俊雄氏、都知事選に立候補へ 元航空幕僚長". 朝日新聞. 6 January 2014. Retrieved 6 January 2014. 田母神氏は６日朝、朝日新聞の取材に「東京の防災体制は不十分。自衛隊を組み込み、都民を守りたい」と述べた。 ... １０年夏の参院選では、自民党から比例区候補として打診されたが拒否している。
  35. ^ Yoshida, Reiji (6 January 2014). "Axed nationalist Gen. Tamogami seeks Tokyo governorship". Japan Times. Retrieved 7 January 2014.
  36. ^ Mochizuki, Takashi (30 January 2014). "Twitter Star Seeks Tokyo Votes". Wall Street Journal Japan Real Time. Retrieved 31 January 2014.
  37. ^ "ドクター・中松氏、出馬へ 都知事選". 朝日新聞. 8 January 2014. Retrieved 8 January 2014.
  38. ^ a b c d "中松氏ら３人も出馬表明". MSN Sankei News. 8 January 2014. Archived from the original on 23 January 2014. Retrieved 9 January 2014.
  39. ^ "マック赤坂氏、やっぱり都知事選に立候補表明 スマイル党総裁「引退」撤回". Huffington Post. 17 January 2014. Retrieved 20 January 2014.
  40. ^ "都知事選:マック赤坂氏ら３人が立候補を表明". 毎日新聞. 17 January 2014. Archived from the original on 1 February 2014. Retrieved 20 January 2014.
  41. ^ a b "東国原氏、舛添氏が人気 自民調査". 日刊スポーツ. 25 December 2013. Archived from the original on 26 December 2013. Retrieved 25 December 2013. ２３日まで有権者の意向を探る世論調査を行った結果、国会議員に対する支持は低く、党内に擁立論がある舛添要一元厚労相（６５）や、党が出馬を警戒する東国原英夫前衆院議員（５６）が、一定の支持を集めたことが分かった。
  42. ^ "東国原氏「２０００％出ない」 都知事選、記者団に語る". 朝日新聞. 10 January 2014. Retrieved 10 January 2014. 報道陣の囲み取材に応じ、「（立候補の）計画も予定もつもりもない。２千％ない」と話した。
  43. ^ "池上彰氏「あり得ない」打診すでに断る". 日刊スポーツ. 20 December 2013. Archived from the original on 25 February 2014. Retrieved 24 December 2013.
  44. ^ a b "都知事選、自民が舛添氏と政策協議へ 民主は相乗り探る". 日本経済新聞. 8 January 2014. Retrieved 8 January 2014.
  45. ^ "都知事選 川淵三郎氏で候補一致か 安倍首相と石原前都知事". Daily Noborder. 19 December 2013. Archived from the original on 8 January 2014. Retrieved 8 January 2014.
  46. ^ "「五輪の顔」選び１カ月決戦 都知事選で与野党思惑". 日本経済新聞. 20 December 2013. Retrieved 24 December 2013.
  47. ^ "猪木議員 都知事選出馬あるぞ 本命候補に躍り出る？". スポーツニッポン. 3 January 2014. Archived from the original on 6 January 2014. Retrieved 6 January 2014.
  48. ^ "Tokyo to elect new governor on Feb 9". AFP. 26 December 2013. Retrieved 26 December 2013. Flamboyant former Prime Minister Junichirō Koizumi has declined to run after minor opposition Your Party asked him, according to the Mainichi daily. Koizumi, who will turn 72 in January, has emerged as a high-profile critic of Japan's nuclear power industry, despite his pro-nuclear record in office. He has urged his one-time protege and the nation's current leader Shinzō Abe to abandon atomic power.
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