2014 South Australian state election
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All 47 seats in the South Australian House of Assembly 24 seats are needed for a majority 11 (of the 22) seats in the South Australian Legislative Council | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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.svg) The left side map shows the first party preference by electorate. The right side map shows the final two-party preferred vote result by electorate. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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The 2014 South Australian state election elected members to the 53rd Parliament of South Australia on 15 March 2014, to fill all 47 seats in the House of Assembly (lower house) and 11 of 22 seats in the Legislative Council (upper house). The 12-year-incumbent Australian Labor Party (SA) government, led by Premier Jay Weatherill, won its fourth consecutive four-year term in government, a record 16 years of Labor government, defeating the opposition Liberal Party of Australia (SA), led by Opposition Leader Steven Marshall.
The election resulted in a hung parliament with 23 seats for Labor and 22 for the Liberals. The balance of power rested with the two crossbench independents, Bob Such and Geoff Brock. Such did not indicate whom he would support in a minority government before he went on medical leave for a brain tumour, diagnosed one week after the election. University of Adelaide Professor and Political Commentator Clem McIntyre said the absence of Such virtually guaranteed that Brock would back Labor – with 24 seats required to govern, Brock duly provided support to the incumbent Labor government, allowing Weatherill to continue in office as head of a minority government. McIntyre said:[1]
If Geoff Brock had gone with the Liberals, then the Parliament would have effectively been tied 23 to 23, so once Bob Such became ill and stepped away then Geoff Brock, I think had no choice but to side with Labor.
It is Labor's longest-serving South Australian government and the second longest-serving South Australian government behind the Playmander-assisted Liberal and Country League government of 1933-1965, which served first under Richard Layton Butler and then Thomas Playford IV. It is also the third time that any party has won four consecutive election victories in South Australia, after the LCL's 10 consecutive victories from 1933 to 1965 (the last eight under Playford) and Labor's four consecutive victories between 1970 and 1977 under Don Dunstan.
Recent hung parliaments occurred when Labor came to government in 2002 and prior to that when the state Liberal retained government in 1997 which saw the South Australian Division of the Liberal Party of Australia, created in 1974, win re-election for the first time.
The Liberals were reduced to 21 seats in May 2014 when Martin Hamilton-Smith became an independent and entered cabinet with Brock. Both Hamilton-Smith and Brock agreed to support the Labor government on confidence and supply while retaining the right to otherwise vote on conscience. Labor went from minority to majority government when Nat Cook won the 2014 Fisher by-election by five votes from a 7.3 percent two-party swing which was triggered by the death of Such. Despite this, the Jay Weatherill Labor government kept Brock and Hamilton-Smith in cabinet, giving the government a 26 to 21 parliamentary majority.
Like federal elections, South Australia has compulsory voting, uses full-preference instant-runoff voting in the lower house and single transferable vote group voting tickets in the proportionally represented upper house. The election was conducted by the Electoral Commission of South Australia (ECSA), an independent body answerable to Parliament.
Results
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House of Assembly
[edit]The Liberals took three seats from Labor resulting in a hung parliament with 23 seats for Labor and 22 for the Liberals.[2] The balance of power rested with the two crossbench independents, Bob Such and Geoff Brock.[3] Such did not indicate who he would support in a minority government before he went on medical leave for a brain tumour, diagnosed one week after the election. University of Adelaide Professor and Political Commentator Clem McIntyre said the absence of Such virtually guaranteed that Brock would back Labor – with 24 seats required to govern, Brock duly provided support to the incumbent Labor government, allowing Premier Jay Weatherill to continue in office as head of a minority government. McIntyre said:[1]
If Geoff Brock had gone with the Liberals, then the Parliament would have effectively been tied 23 to 23, so once Bob Such became ill and stepped away then Geoff Brock, I think had no choice but to side with Labor.
In a joint press conference with Weatherill, Brock said Such's absence prompted him to make his decision a week sooner than planned.[4] The new government was sworn in on 26 March, with Brock in cabinet as Minister for Regional Development and Local Government.[2] The Liberals were reduced to 21 seats in May 2014 when Martin Hamilton-Smith became an independent and entered cabinet as Minister for Investment and Trade, Defence Industries and Veterans Affairs. Both Hamilton-Smith and Brock agreed to support the Labor government on confidence and supply while retaining the right to otherwise vote on conscience.[5][6] Labor achieved majority government when Nat Cook won the 2014 Fisher by-election by five votes from a 7.3 percent two-party swing which was triggered by the death of Such. Despite this, the Jay Weatherill Labor government kept Brock and Hamilton-Smith in cabinet, giving the government a 26 to 21 parliamentary majority.[7]
 | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Party | Votes | % | +/– | Seats | +/– | |
| Liberal | 455,797 | 44.78 |  3.13 | 22 | 4 | |
| Labor | 364,420 | 35.80 |  1.67 | 23 | 3 | |
| Greens | 88,600 | 8.70 | 0.59 | 0 |  0 | |
| Family First Party | 63,575 | 6.25 | 0.87 | 0 | 0 | |
| Independents | 37,955 | 3.73 | 0.97 | 2 | 1 | |
| Dignity Party | 5,934 | 0.58 | 0.45 | 0 | 0 | |
| National | 1,328 | 0.13 | 0.92 | 0 | 0 | |
| FREE Australia | 247 | 0.02 | 0.13 | 0 | 0 | |
| Total | 1,017,856 | 100.00 | – | 47 | – | |
| Valid votes | 1,017,856 | 96.91 | ||||
| Invalid/blank votes | 32,503 | 3.09 | 0.24 | |||
| Total votes | 1,050,359 | 100.00 | – | |||
| Registered voters/turnout | 1,142,419 | 91.94 | 0.84 | |||
| Source: [8] | ||||||
| Two-party-preferred vote | ||||||
| Liberal | 539,495 | 53.00 | 1.39 | |||
| Labor | 478,361 | 47.00 | 1.39 | |||
| Total | 1,017,856 | 100.00 | – | |||
Independents: Bob Such, Geoff Brock
Although the state-wide two-party vote (2PP) was 47.0% Labor v 53.0% Liberal, the Adelaide metropolitan area containing over 75% of South Australia's population and 72% of seats (34 of 47) recorded a 2PP of 51.5% Labor v 48.5% Liberal.[9]
Seat movement
[edit]The following seats changed hands:[10]
| Seat | Pre-2014 | Swing | Post-2014 | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Party | Member | Margin | Margin | Member | Party | ||||
| Bright | Labor | Chloë Fox | 0.5 | 3.7 | 3.3 | David Speirs | Liberal | ||
| Hartley | Labor | Grace Portolesi | 0.1 | 2.6 | 2.4 | Vincent Tarzia | Liberal | ||
| Mitchell | Labor | Alan Sibbons | 2.4 | 3.6 | 1.2 | Corey Wingard | Liberal | ||
| Mount Gambier | Independent | Don Pegler | 0.5 | 7.7 | 7.2 | Troy Bell | Liberal | ||
Pendulum
[edit]The following Mackerras pendulum works by lining up all of the seats according to the percentage point margin on a two candidate preferred basis based on the 2014 results.[11][12] "Safe" seats require a swing of over 10 per cent to change, "fairly safe" seats require a swing of between 6 and 10 per cent, while "marginal" seats require a swing of less than 6 per cent.[13]
| Labor seats (23) | |||
| Marginal | |||
| Newland | Tom Kenyon | ALP | 1.4% |
| Colton | Paul Caica | ALP | 1.5% |
| Elder | Annabel Digance | ALP | 1.8% |
| Ashford | Steph Key | ALP | 1.9% |
| Florey | Frances Bedford | ALP | 2.5% |
| Light | Tony Piccolo | ALP | 2.8% |
| Wright | Jennifer Rankine | ALP | 3.0% |
| Torrens | Dana Wortley | ALP | 3.5% |
| Lee | Stephen Mullighan | ALP | 4.5% |
| Mawson | Leon Bignell | ALP | 5.6% |
| Fairly safe | |||
| Giles | Eddie Hughes | ALP | 7.0% |
| Little Para | Lee Odenwalder | ALP | 7.4% |
| Kaurna | Chris Picton | ALP | 7.7% |
| Enfield | John Rau | ALP | 8.1% |
| Napier | Jon Gee | ALP | 9.1% |
| Reynell | Katrine Hildyard | ALP | 10.0% |
| Safe | |||
| Port Adelaide | Susan Close | ALP | 10.6% |
| West Torrens | Tom Koutsantonis | ALP | 10.8% |
| Taylor | Leesa Vlahos | ALP | 11.6% |
| Playford | Jack Snelling | ALP | 12.6% |
| Cheltenham | Jay Weatherill | ALP | 14.3% |
| Ramsay | Zoe Bettison | ALP | 18.4% |
| Croydon | Michael Atkinson | ALP | 18.9% |
| Liberal seats (22) | |||
| Marginal | |||
| Mitchell | Corey Wingard | LIB | 1.2% |
| Adelaide | Rachel Sanderson | LIB | 2.4% |
| Hartley | Vincent Tarzia | LIB | 2.4% |
| Dunstan | Steven Marshall | LIB | 3.1% |
| Bright | David Speirs | LIB | 3.3% |
| Fairly safe | |||
| Mt Gambier | Troy Bell | LIB | 7.2% v IND |
| Davenport | Iain Evans | LIB | 8.1% |
| Unley | David Pisoni | LIB | 9.8% |
| Morialta | John Gardner | LIB | 10.0% |
| Safe | |||
| Heysen | Isobel Redmond | LIB | 11.0% v GRN |
| Waite | Martin Hamilton-Smith | LIB | 11.4% |
| Goyder | Steven Griffiths | LIB | 12.9% |
| Morphett | Duncan McFetridge | LIB | 12.9% |
| Finniss | Michael Pengilly | LIB | 13.8% |
| Kavel | Mark Goldsworthy | LIB | 14.0% |
| Schubert | Stephan Knoll | LIB | 14.6% |
| Hammond | Adrian Pederick | LIB | 14.6% |
| Bragg | Vickie Chapman | LIB | 18.7% |
| Stuart | Dan van Holst Pellekaan | LIB | 20.5% |
| Chaffey | Tim Whetstone | LIB | 25.1% |
| MacKillop | Mitch Williams | LIB | 26.7% |
| Flinders | Peter Treloar | LIB | 29.2% |
| Independent seats (2) | |||
| Frome | Geoff Brock | IND | 8.8% v LIB |
| Fisher | IND | 9.4% v LIB | |
Legislative Council
[edit] | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Party | Votes | % | +/– | Seats | |||||
| Not Up | Won | Total | +/- | ||||||
| Liberal | 363,809 | 35.99 | 3.4 | 4 | 4 | 8 | 1 | ||
| Labor | 312,944 | 30.96 | 6.3 | 3 | 4 | 7 | 1 | ||
| Independent Xenophon Team | 130,289 | 12.89 | New | 0 | 1 | 1 | New | ||
| Greens | 65,215 | 6.45 | 0.1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | ||
| Independents | 44,185 | 4.37 | 0.4 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | ||
| Family First Party | 44,015 | 4.35 | 0.1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | ||
| Shooters and Fishers | 13,608 | 1.35 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | | ||
| Dignity Party | 9,367 | 0.93 | 0.3 | 0 | 1 | 1 | | ||
| Fishing and Lifestyle | 7,999 | 0.79 | 0.8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||
| Liberal Democrats | 6,091 | 0.60 | 0.6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||
| Stop Population Growth Now | 3,884 | 0.38 | 0.4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||
| FREE Australia | 2,831 | 0.28 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – | ||
| National | 2,268 | 0.22 | 0.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||
| Multicultural Progress Party | 1,560 | 0.15 | 0.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||
| Katter's Australian | 1,503 | 0.15 | 0.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||
| Fair Land Tax - Tax Party | 1,363 | 0.13 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||
| Total | 1,010,931 | 100.00 | – | 10 | 12 | 22 | – | ||
| Valid votes | 1,010,931 | 96.06 | |||||||
| Invalid/blank votes | 41,508 | 3.94 | 1.9 | ||||||
| Total votes | 1,052,439 | 100.00 | – | ||||||
| Registered voters/turnout | 1,142,419 | 92.12 | 0.8 | ||||||
| Source: [15] | |||||||||
| Members of the South Australian Legislative Council | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Labor (8) | Liberal (8) | Green (2) | Family First (2) | Xenophon Team (1) | Dignity for Disability (1) |
|
elected 2014: |
elected 2014: |
elected 2014: |
elected 2014: |
elected 2014: | |
|
elected 2010: |
elected 2010: |
elected 2010: |
elected 2010: |
elected 2010: | |
1 Appointed by casual vacancy in 2011
2 Elected from Labor ticket, became independent in 2011
Date
[edit]The last state election was held on 20 March 2010 to elect members for the House of Assembly and half of the members in the Legislative Council. In South Australia, section 28 of the Constitution Act 1934, as amended in 2001, directs that parliaments have fixed four-year terms, and elections must be held on the third Saturday in March every four years unless this date falls the day after Good Friday, occurs within the same month as a Commonwealth election, or the conduct of the election could be adversely affected by a state disaster. Section 28 also states that the Governor may also dissolve the Assembly and call an election for an earlier date if the Government has lost the confidence of the Assembly or a bill of special importance has been rejected by the Legislative Council. Section 41 states that both the Council and the Assembly may also be dissolved simultaneously if a deadlock occurs between them.[16]
The Electoral (Miscellaneous) Amendment Act 2013 introduced set dates for writs for General elections in South Australia. The writ sets the dates for the close of the electoral roll and the close of nominations for an election. The Electoral Act 1985 requires that, for a general election, the writ be issued 28 days before the date fixed for polling (S47(2a)) and the electoral roll be closed at 12 noon, 6 days after the issue of the writ (S48(3(a)(i). The close of nominations will be at 12 noon 3 days after the close of rolls (Electoral Act 1985 S48(4)(a) and S4(1)). Since the previous election, five new parties had registered: Fishing and Lifestyle Party, Liberal Democratic Party, Multicultural Progress Party, Stop Population Growth Now, and Katter's Australian Party. Six were no longer registered: The Democrats, Save the RAH, Gamers 4 Croydon, Democratic Labor Party, One Nation, and United Party.[17]
Polling Day for the 2014 South Australian State election was Saturday 15 March 2014 from 8am until 6pm. The Issue of Writ for the 2014 South Australian State election was Saturday 15 February 2014. The Electoral Roll closed at 12 noon, Friday 21 February 2014. Nominations for candidates wishing to stand for election closed at 12 noon, Monday 24 February 2014,[18] with the ballot order for both houses drawn and released shortly after,[19][20] followed by close and release of upper house above-the-line preference tickets.[20] Lower house how-to-vote card lodgements closed at 12 noon, 7 March 2014.[21]
The 2014 Tasmanian state election occurred on the same day.[22]
Background
[edit]The centre-left Australian Labor Party, led by Premier Jay Weatherill, and the centre-right Liberal Party of Australia, led by Leader of the Opposition Steven Marshall, are the two main parties in South Australia. In the 2010 state election, of 47 seats total, the Labor Party won 26 seats and the Liberal Party won 18 seats. Three seats were won by independents, Bob Such (Fisher), Geoff Brock (Frome), and Don Pegler (Mount Gambier). Smaller parties which held no seats in the lower House but achieved significant votes in 2010 include the SA Greens and the Family First Party. In the upper house, the Labor Party held eight seats, the Liberal Party held seven seats, the SA Greens, the Family First Party, and No Pokies all held two seats each, and Dignity for Disability held one seat.
A Port Adelaide by-election and a Ramsay by-election occurred on 11 February 2012, Labor retained both seats.
Retiring MPs
[edit]Labor
[edit]- Lyn Breuer MHA (Giles)[23]
- Patrick Conlon MHA (Elder)[24]
- Robyn Geraghty MHA (Torrens)[25]
- John Hill MHA (Kaurna)[24]
- Michael O'Brien MHA (Napier)[26]
- Gay Thompson MHA (Reynell)[27]
- Michael Wright MHA (Lee)[28]
- Carmel Zollo MLC[29]
Liberal
[edit]- Ivan Venning MHA (Schubert)[30]
Other
[edit]Redistributions and the two-party vote
[edit]To produce 'fair' boundaries, which has a history going back to the mid-1900s Playmander, the Electoral Commission of South Australia has been required following the 1989 election to redraw boundaries after each election through a "fairness" provision with the objective that the party which receives over 50 percent of the statewide two-party vote at the forthcoming election should win the two-party vote in a majority of seats.[32]
Labor's success in South Australia since the end of the Playmander has been based in part on the strength of its dominance in Adelaide. South Australia is the most centralised state in Australia; while 1.7 million people live in South Australia, 1.3 million of them live in Adelaide − uniquely, over 75 percent of the state's population and 72 percent of seats (34 of 47) are located in the metropolitan area alongside a lack of comparatively-sized rural population centres. Therefore, to a far greater extent than is the case in the rest of Australia, the metropolitan area tends to decide election outcomes. Under normal conditions, Labor wins the most seats in Adelaide, with the Liberal vote locked up in ultra-safe rural seats.
In 2010, for instance, the Liberals picked up a swing of 8.4 percent, more than the uniform 6.9 percent swing that the Boundaries Commission envisaged as being enough for a Liberal win. However, most of that swing came in seats that would have stayed in Labor hands in any event; while 22 seats saw double-digit swings, Labor sat on insurmountably safe margins in 16 of them.[33] Additionally, while the Liberals took three Adelaide-area seats off Labor, it only won six additional seats in the capital. While six of the Liberals' 13 safe two-party seats were urban, all but one of their four marginal seats were urban. As a result, while the Liberals won 51.6 percent of the two-party vote, Labor only suffered an overall three-seat swing, allowing it to hold onto a two-seat majority.
The 2014 election saw more of the same. While the state-wide two-party vote (2PP) was 47.0% Labor v 53.0% Liberal, the metropolitan area recorded a 2PP of 51.5% Labor v 48.5% Liberal.[9] The Liberals only won 12 of the 34 metropolitan seats; while only four of their 14 safe two-party seats were urban, all eight non-safe (<10 percent) seats were urban. Overall, the election resulted in a hung parliament with 23 seats for Labor and 22 for the Liberals. The balance of power rested with the two crossbench independents, Bob Such and Geoff Brock. Their seats, Fisher and Frome, both returned clear Liberal two-party votes but elected independents. 24 seats had returned a Liberal two-party vote, 23 seats returned a Labor two-party vote, therefore the "fairness" provision was met.
One element of the Playmander remains to this day − the House of Assembly is still elected using single-member seats. Prior to the Playmander, the House of Assembly had always been elected using multi-member seats since the inaugural 1857 election.
Each Labor period of government since the end of the Playmander had at least one comprehensive win, allowing often-Liberal seats to be won by Labor candidates who then built up incumbency and personal popularity. Examples in 2014 were Mawson, Newland and Light, and additionally in 2010, Bright and Hartley – all gained at the 2006 election landslide. Mawson in fact swung toward Labor in 2010 and 2014 despite the statewide trend. The bellwether seat of Colton was retained by Labor. Furthermore, all but two of the nine Liberal-held metropolitan seats saw swings against the Liberals.
In 2014, referring to the 1989 fairness legislation, Premier Jay Weatherill said "Complaining about the rules when you designed the rules I think sits ill on the mouth of the Liberal Party", while Electoral Commissioner Kay Mousley said it was an "impossible" task for the Boundaries Commission to achieve the legislated requirement, stating "It is a constitutional requirement, and until the constitution gets changed, I must say I find it a very inexact science".[34] Additionally, she had previously stated in 2010 "Had the Liberal Party achieved a uniform swing it would have formed Government. The Commission has no control over, and can accept no responsibility for, the quality of the candidates, policies and campaigns."[35] University of Adelaide Professor of Politics Clem Macintyre stated after the 2014 election that fair electoral boundaries are an "impossible challenge".[36]
The Liberal Party disagreed with that assessment, and submitted that Hartley, Elder and Bright should be moved from Labor to Liberal.[37]
The Australian Broadcasting Corporation's election expert Antony Green expected that the Labor government's parliamentary majority from the 2010 election would be redistributed away.[38][39] However, the draft redistribution, which altered the boundaries of 36 of 47 seats, nominally gave Labor 26 seats and the Liberals 21 seats on a two-party basis. Although held by an independent member, Frome was proposed to be moved from Labor to Liberal on a two-party basis. It was also proposed that the Norwood be renamed Dunstan.[40]
The final redistribution was released in August 2012. The renaming of the seat of Norwood to Dunstan occurred. On Antony Green's calculations, the notional two-party margin in Frome went from 0.1 percent Labor to 1.7 percent Liberal, Ashford went from 4.8 percent to 0.6 percent for Labor, Hartley went from 2.3 percent to 0.1 percent for Labor, Elder went from 3.6 percent to 2.0 percent for Labor and Light went from 5.3 percent to 2.8 percent for Labor, amongst other boundary and margin reductions and increases. All redistribution figures and swings used are based on Antony Green's booth-based declaration vote calculations rather than the electoral commission's seat-based declaration vote calculations.[41][42][43][44]
Polling
[edit]Polling conducted by Newspoll and published in The Australian was conducted via random telephone number selection in city and country areas. Sampling sizes usually consisted of over 800 electors, while the 10–13 March 2014 poll consisted of 1602 electors. The declared margin of errors at these sample sizes were ±3.5 percent and ±2.5 percent respectively. Two-party preferred figures were calculated based on preference flows at the 2010 state election.
| Primary vote | TPP vote | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lib | Nat | ALP | Grn | Oth | Lib | ALP | ||||
| 15 Mar 2014 election | 44.8% | 0.1% | 35.8% | 8.7% | 10.7% | 53.0% | 47.0% | |||
| 10–13 Mar 2014 | 41% | <.5% | 34% | 9% | 16% | 52.3% | 47.7% | |||
| 21–27 Feb 2014 | 44% | <.5% | 34% | 7% | 15% | 54% | 46% | |||
| Oct–Dec 2013 | 40% | <.5% | 33% | 10% | 17% | 53% | 47% | |||
| Apr–Jun 2013 | 44% | 1% | 32% | 10% | 13% | 56% | 44% | |||
| Mar 2013 | 43% | 1% | 33% | 10% | 13% | 54% | 46% | |||
| Oct–Dec 2012 | 40% | 1% | 37% | 9% | 13% | 51% | 49% | |||
| Jul–Sep 2012 | 43% | 1% | 28% | 11% | 17% | 57% | 43% | |||
| Jan–Mar 2012 | 40% | <.5% | 34% | 11% | 15% | 52% | 48% | |||
| Nov–Dec 2011 | 40% | 2% | 34% | 9% | 15% | 52% | 48% | |||
| Apr–Jun 2011 | 40% | 1% | 30% | 14% | 15% | 54% | 46% | |||
| 25 Feb–6 Mar 2011 | 42% | 1% | 29% | 14% | 14% | 56% | 44% | |||
| 20 Mar 2010 election | 41.7% | 1.0% | 37.5% | 8.1% | 11.7% | 51.6% | 48.4% | |||
| 14–18 Mar 2010 | 42.5% | < .5% | 35.3% | 9.3% | 12.3% | 52% | 48% | |||
| Polling conducted by Newspoll and published in The Australian. | ||||||||||
| Better Premier | Weatherill | Marshall | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Weatherill | Marshall | Satisfied | Dissatisfied | Satisfied | Dissatisfied | |||
| 15 Mar 2014 election | – | – | – | – | – | – | ||
| 10–13 Mar 2014 | 43% | 37% | 42% | 42% | 42% | 35% | ||
| 21–27 Feb 2014 | 40% | 39% | 43% | 44% | 45% | 29% | ||
| Oct–Dec 2013 | 40% | 29% | 43% | 37% | 43% | 21% | ||
| Apr–Jun 2013 | 41% | 30% | 47% | 35% | 41% | 20% | ||
| Mar 2013 | 42% | 27% | 46% | 34% | 37% | 19% | ||
| Oct–Dec 2012 | 47% | 27%2 | 49% | 32% | 40%2 | 40%2 | ||
| Jul–Sep 2012 | 40% | 27%2 | 42% | 33% | 40%2 | 36%2 | ||
| Jan–Mar 2012 | 46% | 23%2 | 47% | 23% | 43%2 | 34%2 | ||
| Nov–Dec 2011 | 45% | 29%2 | 51% | 14% | 49%2 | 30%2 | ||
| Apr–Jun 2011 | 34%1 | 45%2 | 31%1 | 59%1 | 51%2 | 29%2 | ||
| 25 Feb–6 Mar 2011 | 32%1 | 50%2 | 30%1 | 59%1 | 52%2 | 25%2 | ||
| 20 Mar 2010 election | – | – | – | – | – | – | ||
| 14–18 Mar 2010 | 43%1 | 45%2 | 43%1 | 48%1 | 59%2 | 23%2 | ||
| Polling conducted by Newspoll and published in The Australian. ^ Remainder were "uncommitted" to either leader. 1 Mike Rann. 2 Isobel Redmond. | ||||||||
See also
[edit]- Candidates of the South Australian state election, 2014
- Members of the South Australian House of Assembly, 2014–2018
- Members of the South Australian Legislative Council, 2014–2018
- 2010 South Australian state election
- 2018 South Australian state election
References
[edit]- ^ a b By-election for Bob Such's seat of Fisher expected to put pressure on Weatherill Government: ABC 13 October 2014
- ^ a b Re-elected SA Labor Government gets down to business: ABC 27/3/2014
- ^ "Independents Bob Such, Geoff Brock likely to hold balance of power as hung parliament looms". Australian Broadcasting Corporation. 16 March 2014.
- ^ Labor to form minority government with support of independent Geoff Brock: ABC 23 March 2014
- ^ "Martin Hamilton-Smith quits Liberals to back South Australian Labor Government". ABC News. 28 May 2014. Retrieved 28 May 2014.
- ^ Former Liberal leader Martin Hamilton-Smith attends first Labor Cabinet meeting in SA: ABC 2 June 2014
- ^ Fisher by-election win for Labor gives Weatherill Government majority in SA: ABC 13 December 2014
- ^ "Details of SA 2014 Election". Australian Politics and Elections Database.
- ^ a b Metropolitan 2PP correctly calculated by adding raw metro 2PP vote numbers from the 34 metro seats, both Labor and Liberal, then dividing Labor's raw metro 2PP vote from the total, which revealed a Labor metropolitan 2PP of 51.54%. Obtained raw metro 2PP vote numbers from ECSA 2014 election statistics Archived 7 March 2016 at the Wayback Machine, ECSA 2014 Heysen election Archived 11 December 2014 at the Wayback Machine and ABC 2014 Fisher by-election.
- ^ Antony Green (16 March 2014). "Changing Seats". 2014 SA election. Australian Broadcasting Corporation.
- ^ "2014 SA pendulum". 2014 South Australian Election. Australian Broadcasting Corporation.
- ^ 2014 SA election House of Assembly final results: ECSA Archived 24 March 2014 at the Wayback Machine
- ^ Seat status (Party 'safeness') - Political party name abbreviations & codes, demographic ratings and seat status: AEC
- ^ Independent MP for Fisher Bob Such, without indicating confidence and supply support, took immediate medical leave for a brain tumour, diagnosed one week after the election, with his death occurring later that year. Labor achieved majority government when Nat Cook won the 2014 Fisher by-election.
- ^ "Results of 2014 Election". Electoral Commission of South Australia. Archived from the original on 29 June 2015. Retrieved 22 June 2015.
- ^ "Australian elections timetable". Australian Parliamentary Library. Retrieved 5 February 2013.
- ^ "Registered Political Parties : 7 November 2013". ECSA.sa.gov.au. 7 November 2013.
- ^ "Key dates". 2014 SA election. ECSA.sa.gov.au.
- ^ "Lower house candidates". 2014 SA election. ECSA.sa.gov.au. Archived from the original on 27 February 2014. Retrieved 27 February 2014.
- ^ a b "Upper house candidates". 2014 SA election. ECSA.sa.gov.au. Archived from the original on 27 February 2014. Retrieved 27 February 2014.
- ^ "How-to-vote cards". 2014 SA election. ECSA.sa.gov.au. Archived from the original on 8 March 2014.
- ^ "Tasmanian Premier names election date as March 15". Australian Broadcasting Corporation. 16 January 2014. Retrieved 16 January 2014.
- ^ "Lyn Breuer ponders her political deadline". Australian Broadcasting Corporation. 29 April 2013.
- ^ a b "Senior Ministers to quit State Parliament". ABC News. 15 January 2013. Retrieved 15 January 2013.
- ^ Brad Crouch (5 April 2013). "Government Whip Robyn Geraghty will retire at the 2014 election". The Advertiser. Adelaide: News Ltd.
- ^ Jonathan Swan (31 January 2014). "Senator Don Farrell backs down on move to SA politics after Premier Jay Weatherill threatens to quit". The Sydney Morning Herald. Retrieved 16 February 2014.
- ^ "Breuer to quit after losing speaker's chair". Australian Broadcasting Corporation. 28 March 2013.
- ^ "Former Foley staffer tipped for Wright's seat". Australian Broadcasting Corporation. 15 March 2012.
- ^ "CFS volunteers consider challenge to 'disgraceful' compensation legislation". Australian Broadcasting Corporation. 29 November 2013.
- ^ Liberal South Australian MP Ivan Venning calling stumps: AdelaideNow 10 July 2012
- ^ The Tally Room (26 January 2014). "2014 SA election, upper house". Tally Room. Retrieved 16 February 2014.
- ^ Jaensch Dean (1990). "The 1989 South Australian election". Australian Journal of Political Science. 25 (2): 333–338. doi:10.1080/00323269008402128.
- ^ 2010 election preview from Antony Green
- ^ Liberals blocked by unfair boundaries, says Downer: The Australian 17 March 2014
- ^ "Draft Redistribution Report". Electoral Commission of South Australia. 12 August 2011. Archived from the original on 3 November 2012. Retrieved 9 June 2012.
- ^ Fair electoral boundaries an "impossible challenge": University of Adelaide, 21 March 2014
- ^ "Liberals want three marginal Labor seats to swing their way". The Advertiser. 5 August 2012.
- ^ Antony Green (29 March 2010). "South Australian Election, Final 2-Party Preferred Counts". Antony Green's Election Blog. ABC News. Retrieved 9 June 2012.
- ^ Antony Green (8 February 2011). "Future election dates". Antony Green's Election Blog. ABC News. Retrieved 9 June 2012.
- ^ Antony Green (1 June 2012). "New State Electoral Boundaries Proposed for South Australia". Antony Green's Election Blog. ABC News. Retrieved 9 June 2012.
- ^ 2014 South Australian Electoral Pendulum: Antony Green ABC 21 January 2014
- ^ "Final redistribution report". Electoral Commission of South Australia. Archived from the original on 9 April 2013. Retrieved 23 August 2012.
- ^ "South Australia redistributed". Poll Bludger. 23 August 2012.
- ^ 2014 SA election seats: ABC
External links
[edit]- 2014 SA election: Antony Green ABC
- 2014 SA election: Poll Bludger
- 2014 SA election: Tally Room
- Electoral Commission of South Australia (ECSA)
- Lower house how-to-vote cards and upper house above-the-line preference tickets: ECSA
- Polls point towards possible hung Parliament: ABC 14 March 2014
- Advertiser-Galaxy poll shows Labor ahead 51-49 in two critical marginal seats & chance to deny Libs majority government: The Advertiser 15 March 2014
- Galaxy; 51-49 to Labor in Newland and Mitchell (SA): Poll Bludger 13 March 2014