User:Futureobservatory

DAVID MERCER

I retired in 2003, having completed my academic career with a PhD in ‘long-range planning’ (granted just three weeks into my retirement!), and - along with chairing the local University of the Third Age - spent the next three years pulling together my autobiography:

D. Mercer, ‘A Dance Through the Fires of Time’ (Booksurge, 2006). This material was considerably extended, especially in terms of the adding the content of my many academic books and papers, by a website [[1]]. Though simply structured, in order for it to be used without any great learning curve, this is an unusually extensive resource in that it contains 4,400 articles/topics, along with 2000 pictures and 18,000 hyperlinks. This website material, most of which had previously been published in one or other refereed form, is the basis for most of my contributions to Wikipedia.

My university CV at the end of my academic career, in 2000 (here updated to 2006), included descriptions of the most significant contributions I had made in the eight main areas which the Open University [[2]] then considered most important.

1. RESEARCH

In terms of my research record, as well as being a member of the small group of researchers which enabled the Open University Business School (OUBS) [[3]] to achieve a 3A rating in the last Research Assessment undertaken on behalf of the DoE, the most accessible evidence comes from my more than 60 refereed academic publications, many of which have been in international journals. These were the main output from more than a decade of research in marketing (15 papers) and especially – based on work by the Futures Observatory team I led - long-range marketing and corporate planning (40 papers). Externally funded by a number of multinationals and supported by the office of the President of the European Commission (EC), its output (based on input from more than 5,000 organisations) was internationally recognised by the wider community not just that of academics; and led to my being an expert advisor to the European Commission, the UK DTI and UNESCO.

2. TEACHING

I successfully taught a range of OUBS courses - at all levels, from Certificate to Masters, and across a number of countries. Not least, however, was my work - for more than a decade - as the course team chair of the B885 ‘Challenge of the External Environment’ MBA elective. This course was rated highly by the last HEFCE teaching quality assessment and was studied by more than 5,000 students over its nine years in presentation. Even nearing the end of its life it still received the highest overall ratings of any OUBS course. I was also the originator of the MA (Marketing) programme, the first of the named OUBS masters programmes to be launched, and I was chair of the Course Team for its B851 ‘Future Marketing’ course, which covered the leading-edge (post-modern and e-commerce) developments in marketing. In addition I made major contributions to other courses, including the MBA foundation course, so that tens of thousands of OUBS students have been exposed to my work.

3. MANAGEMENT

The most recent evidence for my continuing work in management came from my almost continuous record, for more than a decade, of chairing OUBS academic course teams; as well as running the team of internal and external contributors to the Futures Observatory project. Both of these roles demanded considerable project management skills, with budgets of up to £½ million. In the wider context, however, I was the first head of the OUBS Centre for Policy & Strategy as well as director of its prestigious (hybrid, distance and face-to-face, taught) Presidential project in Ethiopia; which was a major contributor to the OUBS winning the Queen's Award for Export Achievement, and where I was also a personal advisor to the President of Ethiopia and his council of ministers. In my earlier career, as a senior manager reporting to the boards of several multinationals (including IBM), I had managed high-powered teams of managers, and staff, along with seven figure budgets.

4. WRITING

My skills here were best evidenced by the success of my 5 academic textbooks and 10 trade-press books, with a total of something like 100,000 copies sold, along with the literally dozens of separate units I wrote for OUBS courses as well as the 60+ papers I had published.

5. INDUSTRY EXPERIENCE

As the employment section of my CV - which follows - demonstrates, during the first three decades of my career I was employed in a wide range of roles, up to general management level but also with experience in a range of functional specialisms -including operations management, training, corporate strategy and especially those concerned with marketing. This experience was gained across the wide range of sectors, from bodies in the public sector (as an elected councillor in local government through to advisor to the President of Ethiopia) to multinationals in pharmaceuticals, retail, advertising, household goods, industrial goods and - for fifteen years - IBM (the subject of my best selling trade book).

6. PUBLIC PRESENTATION

I presented my work for OUBS, typically as an extension of the later Futures Observatory work which was designed to influence such key audiences, to a range of large national and international audiences. These included UNESCO and the European Commission, internationally, as well as the DTI, in the UK. Similarly, the extension of my work (supported by the OU Public Relations department) led to in-depth coverage by almost all the UK broadsheets along with several dozen interviews on television and radio around the world.

In more detail:

1. PERSONAL DETAILS

''Name'': David Steuart Mercer

''Address'': 2 Marshworth, Tinker’s Bridge, Milton Keynes, MK6 3DA, United Kingdom (Phone: 44(0)1908 232165)

''Email'': mercerdavids@aol.com

''Date of Birth'': 30 September 1940

1.2 TERTIARY/HIGHER EDUCATION

''First Degree'': BSc in Physics and Electrical Engineering, 1962 – Imperial College (London)

''Second Degree'': BA in Social Sciences, 1985 - Open University

''PhD'': 'Reducing Uncertainty in Predicting the Future: New Theories and Techniques Tested', 2003 – Leeds Metropolitan University

''Other Qualifications'': ARCS in Physics, 1962 - Imperial College (London), MCIM in Marketing, 1966 - Chartered Institute of Marketing, MILT, 2000 - Institute of Learning and Teaching

1.3 EMPLOYMENT HISTORY

2005-2006 - Milton Keynes University of the Third Age - Chairman

1988-2003 - Open University Business School

1988-2004 - Course Chair B851 – E-Marketing

1999-2001 - Director - Futures Observatory

1993-2003 - Senior Lecturer

1993-1995 - Head of the Centre for Strategy & Policy

1991-1995 - Project Director – Ethiopia

1989-2001 - Course Chair B885

1988-1993 - Lecturer in Marketing

1987-1988 Mentor - (computer based training) - Account Director

1986-1987 Computerland - (PC Dealer) - Managing Director

1975-1980 Elmbridge Borough Council - Councillor (Chairman of Planning Committee)

1971-1986 IBM

1985 - Relocation Co-ordinator

1984 - Marketing Plan Co-ordinator

1983 - Corporate Affairs Staff

1978 - Head of Biomedical Group

1977 - Country Announcement Manager

1975 - Business Training Manager (at London Business School)

1973 - Sales Training Manager

1971 - Trainee

1970-1971 BTR - (rubber) - General Manager Polymeric Division

1968-1969 Cussons - (soap) - Marketing Manager Household Cleaners

1966-1968 Gallahers - (tobacco) - Brand/Marketing Manager Tobaccos

1964-1966 Sterling Drug - (pharmaceuticals) - Brand Manager

1962-1964 Foote Cone & Belding - (advertising agency) - Assistant Market Executive

As this list indicates, the first decade of my career was spent, fairly conventionally, in marketing management across a range of fast moving consumer goods (FMCG) companies; handling promotional budgets up to eight figures in size but also becoming a member of the first cohort of US style brand managers in the UK. I then moved into general management in the industrial goods sector, becoming - for two years - the most senior non-board executive of BTR; running its Burton on Trent factories, with a workforce in excess of 600 employees.

The next fifteen years was spent at IBM. About half this time was spent in staff, with three years running its management courses at the London Business School and various other stints in the new product function, corporate strategy and corporate affairs - where I was awarded its 'Exceptional Achievement Award' (of which less than a dozen were annually awarded world-wide). The other half of the time was spent running the UK part of IBM's first (Biomedical) Independent Business Unit; where I made the UK the top performing country in this business.

After leaving IBM I remained in the ICT sector, being CEO of a Computerland franchise and Account Director at a CBT software company, Mentor, before joining the Open University in 1988 as Lecturer in Marketing.

2. TEACHING CONTRIBUTIONS

As with most OUBS academics, much of my work took the form of supporting the discipline – marketing - for which I was employed. Over time, though, this broadened to include elements of related corporate strategy (especially long-range planning) and was also successfully integrated with my research. It included contributions across a range of Certificate, Diploma and especially Masters courses.

2.1 COURSE TEAM CHAIRS HELD

In particular, though, it was as a course team chair. Indeed, I fulfilled this role for 12 years; chairing two courses in parallel for more than half this.

1988/1989 Marketing In Action (P677 - Diploma)
1988/1989 International Marketing (P672 - Diploma Course)
1991/1992 Marketing (B732 - Diploma Course)
1988/1994 and 1995/2001 The Challenge of the External Environment (B885 - MBA elective)
1998/1999 Customer and Client Relations (B656 - Certificate Course)
1999/2001 Future Marketing (B851- MA(Marketing) course)

One obvious long-term academic contribution to the OUBS curriculum was B885 (‘The Challenge of the External Environment’). When launched, this MBA strategy course broke new ground in addressing the wider external environment. It covered the social sciences and technology (the STEP factors) from a management perspective - a 'discipline' that had not been explored as comprehensively in any other institution. The course included many innovations, such as extensive use of [[computer conferencing[[ and - especially - team working on a TMA (Tutor Marked Assignment).

As a result of the course life being extended for a further three years, making it the longest lived of the MBA electives and the most popular post-graduate marketing course in the UK (taken by more than 5,000 students), it was extensively rewritten. Based on the Futures Observatory research, which was undertaken alongside the course, the new material included that relating to a new ‘discipline’, ‘long-range marketing’, as well as a range of new theories (such as ‘aggregated expectations’) and techniques (such as ‘robust strategies in a day’).

The course was commended by HEFCE as part of the overall 'excellent' rating it gave the School. Despite nearing its end of life and successfully pioneering a low-cost approach, this course also came top of the ratings for the whole of the School, in the IET 1998 Courses Survey, beating every other OUBS course surveyed both in terms of overall quality and value for money. In 2000, I also brought to a conclusion 5 years of planning, and negotiation with the Chartered Institute of Marketing with the launch of the pilot for the new Masters in Marketing programme. This focused on leading edge developments across marketing, including the theory and practices of post-modern marketing, but especially in e-commerce marketing.

3. MANAGEMENT AND ADMINISTRATION ROLES

For much of my time with OUBS I was also involved in various aspects of management:

1993-1995 Head of the Centre for Strategy and Policy
1993-1995 Member of the OUBS Management Team
1991-1995 Project Director - Ethiopian programme
1997-2003 Director Futures Observatory Research Programme
1988/1994 and 1995-2003 Member of MBA Board

As the first Head of the Centre for Strategy and Policy, I had management responsibility for the eight academics who then were full members of the Centre, as well as negotiating, with Programme Directors, their participation on the various course teams and other functions/projects. As a member of the School's management team, I was also heavily involved in the general management activities of the School - including recruitment of academic staff - during the period when the School was building its dominant position in the UK market.

The third item represented the very successful project, on behalf of the Foreign and Commonwealth Office (FCO), where I led the team of senior OUBS academics who taught the OBS MBA programme to the most senior members of the Ethiopian Government (including its President). As well as producing a profitable income stream, which has eventually accumulated to seven figures, this piloted much of the subsequent OUBS work overseas. More important, it significantly enhanced the reputation of OUBS; and contributed the Queen's Award for Export Achievement.

4. EXTERNAL REPRESENTATION

4.1 PUBLIC PRESENTATIONS

I presented my OUBS work, typically as an extension of the later Futures Observatory work which was designed to influence such key audiences, to a range of large national and international audiences. These included UNESCO (Stockholm Inter-Governmental Conference), European Commission (IPTS, Seville, and Cellule Prospective, Brussels), AOC, IAC, SEEDA, TECs, WFS (Chicago), WorldAid (Geneva), ISSZ (Gelsenkirchen)

4.2 PUBLIC RELATIONS

Similarly, the extension of my work (supported by the OU Public Relations department) led to in-depth coverage by almost all the broadsheets (including the Financial Times, The Wall Street Journal, The Times, The Express, The Guardian and The Independent) along with several dozen interviews/programmes on television and radio around the world; with total audience coverage in eight figures.

4.3 EXTERNAL ADVISORY ROLES

My most important government advisory roles were to the:

''President of Ethiopia and its Council of Ministers'' - advising on a range of economic and political issues, including negotiations with the Western ambassadors on its first IMF/World Bank loan and the resolution of the renewed civil war

[[UN Agencies - including UNCTAD]] - advising on accounting education in the Third World - and UNU - managing the UK contribution to its US Millennium Project - UNESCO - participation as an NGO in the 140 nation Intergovernmental Conference on Cultural Development

European Commission (the president's - Jacques Santer's - cabinet/office and the IPTS think-tank) - as a member of several panels reviewing the long-term future of the EU

DTI Foresight programme - member of the 'Ageing' task force (inc. chairing the Life-Long-Learning sub-group)

4.4 SOCIETIES

I was a member of the following professional bodies, and acted in a variety of capacities with them:

Strategic Planning Society - chairman of its Futures Observatory Special Interest Group (1998-2000)

Academy of Marketing - including refereeing papers and chairing conference sessions

British Academy of Management - including refereeing papers

Chartered Institute of Marketing - member of advisory panel on e-commerce programme (2000)

United Nations University Millennium Project - member of planning committee (1995-1999)

World Futures Society - chairman of the United Kingdom Chapter (1998-2000)

4.5 EXTERNAL EXAMINING

As well as refereeing papers for a number of journals and conferences, I also acted in an external capacity with a number of other institutions:

Southampton Institute (1995-1999) - external examiner of its MBA (Marketing) and MA in Marketing Management

De Montfort University - validation of MBA (Marketing)

Luton University - validation of MBA (special routes)

Nene College - validation of MBA (Marketing)

5. PUBLICATIONS

My full list of publications, includes:

5.1 BOOKS:

My best-selling academic book, having made sales of more than 50,000 copies in its various editions, is the textbook ‘Marketing’. My best selling trade book was ‘IBM’, which across the world sold more than 10,000 copies.

AUTHORED Mercer, D, IBM: How the World's Most Successful Corporation is Managed (306p, Kogan Page, 1987, ISBN 1-85091-287-4) (328p, Kogan Page, 1988, ISBN 1-85091-637-3 pbk) Mercer, D, The Global IBM (374p, Dodd Mead, 1988, ISBN 0-396-09259-4) Mercer, D, IBM Way (406p, The English Agency - Japan - Ltd, 1988, ISBN 4-478-34015-3) Mercer, D, The Sales Professional (377p, Kogan Page, 1988, ISBN 1-85091-615-2) Mercer, D, The High Level Sale (296p, Gulf Publishing, 1989, 0-87201-829-6) Mercer, D, Marketing (759p, Basil Blackwell, 1992, 0-631-17631-4) Mercer, D, Marketing (2nd edition) (560p, Basil Blackwell, 1996, 0-631-19638-2) Kotabe, M, Czinkota, M R and Mercer, D, Marketing Management (675p, Basil Blackwell, 1997, 1-55786-694-5) (675p, Basil Blackwell, 1997, 1-55786-695-3 pbk) Mercer, D, New Marketing Practice (285p, Penguin, 1997, 014-02-4078-0) Mercer, D, Marketing Strategy: the Challenge of the External Environment (325p, Sage, 1998, 0-7619-5875-4) (325p, Sage, 1998, 0-7619-5875-5 pbk) Mercer, D, Future Revolutions (263p, Orion, 1998, 0-75281-369-2) Mercer, D, Marketing for Managers (153p, Orion, 1998, 0-75281-382-x pbk) Mercer, D, Marketing; the Encyclopaedic Dictionary (422p, Basil Blackwell, 1999, 0-631-19107-0, 0-631-21126-8 pbk) Mercer, D, Future Revolutions (263p, Orion, February 1999, 0-75281-378-1pbk) Kotabe, M, Czinkota, M R and Mercer, D, Marketing Management (2nd edn.) (Southwest College Publishing, 2000) Mercer, D, New Economy Expression; Redefining Marketing in the Multi-Channel Age (Wiley, 2001) Mercer, D, A Dance Through the Fires of Time (autobiography) (Booksurge, 2006)

EDITED

Mercer, D, Managing the External Environment (302p, Sage, 1992, 0-8039-8628-9) (302p, Sage, 1992, 0-8039-8629-7 pbk) CHAPTERS IN BOOKS Mercer, D, Scenarios Made Easy, in Exploring Techniques of Analysis and Evaluation in Strategic Management, ed. Veronique Ambrosini with Gerry Johnson & Kevan Scholes (Prentice Hall, Hemel Hempstead, UK, 1998, ISBN 0-13-570680-7) Mercer, D, Energy - A Global Issue, in Energy Efficiency Business Guide, ed. Stuart Rock, CBI/Caspian, (1999) Mercer, D, The Postmaterialism Scenarios, in Ultimate Telecom Futures, ed. Stephen McClelland, Horizon House Publications, pp179-184, (2002)

5.2 ARTICLES IN REFEREED JOURNALS

Mercer, D, A Two Decade Test of Product Life Cycle Theory pp 269-274, British Journal of Management, Vol. 4 (1993) Mercer, D, pp 32-40, Simpler Scenarios, Management Decision, Vol. 33 No 4 (1995) Mercer, D, Scenarios Made Easy, pp81-86, Long Range Planning, Vol. 28 No 4 (1995) Mercer, D, The Foreseeable Future, pp 81-86, Management Decision, Vol. 34 No 3 (1996) Mercer, D, Marketing Practices in the 1990s, pp 175-181, Journal of Targeting, Measurement and Analysis for Marketing, Vol. 5 No 2 (1996) Mercer, D, Predictable Futures - The Drivers for Change, pp 829-838, Futures, Vol. 28 No 9 (November 1996) Mercer, D, Industry Scenarios - Short Termism Revealed, pp 23-27, Industrial Management and Data Systems, Vol. 96 No.8 (1996) Mercer, D, A General Hypothesis of Aggregated Expectations, pp 145-154, Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Vol. 55 (1997) Mercer, D, Determining Expectations of Future Outcomes, pp 155-164, Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Vol. 55 (1997) Mercer, D, Robust Strategies in a Day, pp 219-223, Management Decision, Vol. 35 No. 3 (1997) Mercer, D, Global forces which will shape our economic and political lives, Futures Research Quarterly, Vol. 13 No. 4 (1997) Mercer, D, The Future Quantified, Futures, Vol. 30 No. 4 pp 305-322, 1998 Mercer, D, Long Range Marketing, pp 178-184 Journal of Marketing Practice, Vol. 4 No. 6 (1998) Mercer, D, Organisational Futures: Unprepared for the Surprises to Come, Management Decision,Vol. 37 No. 5 pp 411-416, 1999 Mercer, D, Life-Long-Learning is the Future, Foresight, Vol. 1 No. 2, April 1999 Mercer, D, Fear of the Future - A New Management Approach, Management Decision, Issue 9, 2001 Mercer, D, From Scenarios to Robust Strategies: The Links Managers Make, Futures Research Quarterly, 2001 Mercer, D, Managing Future Expectations Globally, Foresight, Vol 4. No 6 (2002)

5.3 REFEREED CONFERENCE PAPERS

Mercer, D, Winning the Brand Leadership by Uncompetitive Means, British Academy of Management (1992). Mercer, D, The Competitive Saw - An Alternative to Slow Death by the 'Product' Life Cycle - MEG (Marketing Education Group) (1993) Mercer, D, Large Scale Conferencing for Inexpert Users, Proceedings of the 1993 TeleTeaching conference (Elsevier, 1993) Mercer, D, Computer Conferencing for Marketing Students - MEG (Marketing Education Group) (1994) Mercer, D, Scenarios in Use - EMAC (1995) Mercer, D, Management's Commitment to Marketing Theory Compared with Actual Practice - MEG (Marketing Education Group) (1996) Mercer, D, A New Qualitative Research Technique for Exploring the Future - MEG (Marketing Education Group) (1996) Mercer, D, The Foreseeable Future - 'Millennium Project' Qualitative Results - BAM (British Academy of Management (1996) Mercer, D, Predictable Futures - The Drivers for Change, 5. Internationale Sommerakademie des Sekretariats für Zukunftsforschung (1996)

5.4 INVITED CONFERENCE PAPERS

In later years I generally limited my conference presentations to those where I was one of the (invited) leading speakers:

Mercer, D, Future Revolutions & Global Forces That Will Shape our Economic & Political Lives - WFS (World Futures Society Conference (Chicago, 1998) Mercer, D, Futures Networking Projects - WFS (World Futures Society Conference, (Chicago, 1998) Mercer, D, The Next and More Complex Emergency - WorldAid'98 (Geneva, 1998) Mercer, D, Creating the New Nexus for Aid - WorldAid'98 (Geneva, 1998) Mercer, D, The Future of Education in Europe Until 2010AD - IPTS (Seville, 1999) Mercer, D, Global Challenges to Trade Associations, 5th International Association Congress (London, 1999) Mercer, D, Knowledge Based Industries - Strategy, Futures & People, TEC99 National Conference (Birmingham, 1999) Mercer, D, Future Developments in Work, SEEDA Conference (Brighton, 1999) Mercer, David and Malcolm Fritchley, The Future Of Life-Long-Learning, DTI Foresight Ageing Panel, (2000) Mercer, David, Six Drivers for the Future, 3M Conference at London Business School, (November, 1999)

5.5 OTHER WORKS

Mercer, D, Intimations of Immortality: Death of the Lifecycle, ADMAP (September, 1993) Mercer, D, Frameworks for Advertising Investment, ADMAP, (May 1997) Mercer, D, Marketing Philosophies in the 1990s - MEG (Marketing Education Group) (1996) Mercer, D, Marketing Practices in the 1990s - MEG (Marketing Education Group) (1996) Mercer, D, A Certain Future: Interim Results from the 'Millennium Project' - MEG (Marketing Education Group) (1996) Mercer, D, The Foreseeable Future - 'Millennium Project' Qualitative Results, OR38 (Operational Research Society Conference) (1996) Mercer, D, Research Techniques for Quantitatively Exploring the Future OR38 (Operational Research Society Conference) (1996) Mercer, D, Warriors, Collaborators And Cartels - BAM (British Academy of Management) (1997) Mercer, D, Dynamic Repositioning and Emergent Strategy - BAM (British Academy of Management) (1997) Mercer, D, Aggregated Expectations - 4th Annual French Meeting on Experimental Economics (Paris) (1998) Mercer, D, Robust Strategies - BAM (British Academy of Management) (1998) Mercer, D, Techniques in Futures Research - BAM (British Academy of Management) (1998) Mercer, D, Six Drivers for the Future, Millennium Conference (London), (1999) Mercer, D, Six Drivers for the Future, Accountancy, (January 2000)

5.6 CO-AUTHORED ARTICLES

Mercer, D, Mudambi, S, Simintiras, A, Long Range Marketing - MEG (Academy of Marketing) (1998) Mercer, D, Mudambi, S, Simintiras, A, A New Qualitative Research Technique for Exploring the Future, (Academy of Marketing) (1998) Susan McDowell Mudambi and David Mercer, An Exploration of Continuous Educational Development, (Fifth EDINEB Conference, Cleveland) (1998) Mercer, D and A. Wilter, Removing the Fear of Uncertainty from the Future: Theory and Practice, Foresight, Vol 4. No 5 (2002)

6. RESEARCH PROGRAMMES

The overarching link between my various research programmes and my PhD was that they in general focused on the use of theory, compared with practice. They progressively moved from the very specific (examination of the validity of one key element of marketing theory, the Product Life Cycle) through that relating to a major discipline (use of marketing theory/frameworks, leading to the development of new, more effective, frameworks) to the very general in the form of long term (marketing-based) corporate planning across a wide range of disciplines (in this case developing the new theory and research techniques needed to produce the results).

The overall work resulted in more than 60 publications, 20 in the field of conventional marketing and 40 in the new one of long-range marketing/planning. They included 11 books (8 in marketing) as well as chapters in two more, 15 papers in refereed journals and 20 refereed/invited papers to conferences. It also resulted in recognition (including advisory roles) by the EC, DTI and UNESCO. Another key link was that, in general, the research made the most effective use of the School’s unique set of resources; ranging from its large student and alumni base, especially students studying related courses, to its external contacts linked by its electronic systems.

6.1 BRAND/PLC RESEARCH

The initial research, started in 1989, used BMRB’s TGI data (across a thousand brands over twenty years) to investigate the validity of the Brand/Product Life Cycle over extended periods. Two papers in journals and two at conferences resulted from this work.

6.2 MARKETING (THEORY) RESEARCH

In parallel with the other research, extensive literature searches were undertaken. These, along with the pedagogical developments described earlier, directly resulted in my first major textbook. In the UK there has been a further edition and an encyclopaedic dictionary based on the same material. In the US there have been two follow-on (co-authored) editions.

The subsequent research used OUBS students in focus groups, and as the subject of postal questionnaires, to map how marketing theory related to practice. One paper, reporting these research results, was published in a journal and three at conferences.

Based upon these results, new theoretical frameworks were developed. These were reported in the second edition of my marketing textbook and my encyclopaedic dictionary, as well as in the co-authored US editions, and especially as the basis for two trade paperbacks; and as a paper in a journal and one at a conference.

6.3 THE MILLENNIUM PROJECT

Later research aimed at improving the accuracy of (marketing-based) long-range forecasting of key future developments across a wide range of disciplines; initially as The Millennium Project. Although the origins of this went back to my work with London Business School, almost two decades previously, the bulk of this research lasted the best part of a decade.

The initial papers describing the techniques developed in the first half of the1990s, were published in a journals and two at conferences. This work was then developed, on a consultancy basis, for application to smaller organisations - and two co-authored papers on these developments were given at conferences. As the main theoretical basis for these techniques, a new hypothesis, ‘Aggregated Expectations’, was developed. Two papers describing this were published in an international journal and another at an international conference. The results of the research were published as five papers in journals and four at conferences.

7. FUTURES OBSERVATORY

In 1998, Millennium Project was replaced by a larger, sponsored, research programme; The Futures Observatory - which is jointly run with the Strategic Planning Society. The OU Futures Observatory was accepted by the UN, and its agencies, as an internationally recognised NGO.

BASIC RESEARCH

Building upon the work undertaken as part of the Millennium Projects of OUBS and ACUNU, the prime objective of all phases of the research was to provide the best possible theoretical framework for managers to undertake their long-range planning, across the widest possible range of sectors (private and public); as well as to generally provide the best possible research evidence as to the possible long-term developments in the global environment, as well as those for specific industries. Having achieved stable results in terms of mapping of global trends across the whole of society, the work then focused on the sector with potentially the greatest impact - that of e-commerce.

EXTERNAL GRANTS

In addition to funding from the United Nations University, The Futures Observatory was sponsored, to a total of more than £20,000, by Barclays Bank, BT, ICI and ICL. It was also supported by the President's office of the European Commission. Senior managers from these organisations also supervised the work and regularly contributed to it. The funding was used to run a range of surveys, and to employ a research fellow.

RESEARCH METHODOLOGY

Playing to the research strengths of OUBS, the research, in general, made use of the substantial groups of respondents, including: 1. Open University MBA Students - 600+ students 2. Open University Business School (OUBS) Alumni - 7,000+ managers 3. Strategic Planning Society (SPS) Members; 4,000+ managers

SPS CONFERENCES

Some of the most important inputs to our previous (Millennium Project) research were obtained from the computer conferences which ran with SPS. This approach was subsequently extended, by using new SPS conferences - face to face as well as computer based - to detect emerging trends. In this way we detected ‘wild-cards’, on the issues which have wider global implications, where the breadth of experience of SPS members was best applied. For ease of use, the electronic element of these conferences was based upon use of an e-mail webcasting system.

(INDUSTRY) SECTOR SCENARIOS

The main source for student-based work was B885 students, who produced complementary scenarios for a number of (industry) sectors each year.

GLOBAL SCENARIOS

The student-based work by B885 students on global scenarios continued, again producing complementary scenarios for global developments in general.

OUBS ALUMNI SURVEYS

The questionnaire-based work continued - to track changes - and was extended to examine specific sectors; and to develop the techniques involved. In particular the quantitative work was extended to a wider population. The output was a series of rankings (essentially by importance and by date) of the key factors/events which will shape the future of organisations.

Thus, our main quantitative research used mail surveys which made the most effective use of a major OUBS asset, that of its 9,000 MBA alumni. We initially used these surveys to confirm the stability of the results for our work on global trends. We then moved on to focus on a range of specific sectors, including Life-Long-Learning and organisational structures and that of e-commerce.