User:Fujia0801/China–United States trade war

Environmental Impacts

As the world's superpowers, trade conflicts between China and the United States have far-reaching implications for environmental emission shifts and resource distribution patterns. The environmental impacts of economic policy shifts in both countries include and are not limited to greenhouse gas and pollutant emissions, energy supply, and agricultural land use.

Greenhouse Gas and Air Pollutant Emissions

China

China petroleum regions

China's overall CO₂ emissions declined by 0.68% as a result of the output contraction brought on by the U.S.-China trade war, while other pollutants including NOx and PM2.5 also exhibited a decreasing trend. The decrease in production in China's electricity, petroleum smelting, coking, and non-metallic minerals industries has helped reduce China's emissions of pollutants like CO₂ and total NMVOCs, for example, the decrease in production in China's petroleum smelting and coking industries helped reduce emissions by 70.54%. This is based on the decreased demand for the quantity of goods exported from China caused by the increase in U.S. tariffs. These are the industries most affected by the U.S. tariff barriers.

However, as China's trade barriers with the U.S. rise, Chinese consumers are encouraged to convert to domestic consumption of goods like coal, cattle, and oil that were previously imported from the U.S. As a result, N₂O and NH₃ emissions have significantly increased. Due to rising trade barriers, the output of low-emission sectors including services and construction has dropped, which has increased China's carbon emissions intensity.

The United States

Oilseed rape near Wilmington

Following the trade tensions, the United States had a 0.02% fall in its overall CO₂ emissions, as well as significant decreases in practically all other air pollutants, most notably ${\ce {NH_3}}$at 1.76%. The electricity sector and the chemical sector, both of which use carbon as a source of production, have reduced production as a result of the U.S.-China trade conflict, and as a result, U.S. CO₂ emissions are trending lower. China's regulation of U.S. agricultural products, particularly the increased cultivation of oilseed rape, which produces oilseeds, and the reduction in canola production have helped reduce U.S. emissions of other air pollutants, such as N₂O (61.40%) and NH₃ (36.18%).

The United States has concentrated on increasing domestic production and supply from the higher end of the supply chain in response to the decline in imports of manufactured goods from China brought on by trade barriers. Examples of this include the increased production of recycled oil within the petroleum refining and coking industry, which has resulted in a significant increase in NMVOCs, and the increased production of parts required for industries like machinery and equipment. This also explains the relatively smaller reductions in U.S. CO₂ emission.

Global Impacts

Vietnam Shell button factory

The reduction in emissions caused by the trade conflict between the US and China is lowered by 0.16% because they are the two biggest emitters in the world. However, the shifting of imports and exports and consumer purchasing preferences brought about by the trade war between the US and China affect the distribution of environmental emissions in the world. Based on the trade barriers for both sides, imports and exports between China and the U.S. and other countries have increased, for example, U.S. imports for the rest of Asia have increased by 12.79%, while China's imports of agricultural products from other regions have also increased. Based on this, greenhouse gas and air pollutant emissions in other countries around the world, except for ${\ce {CH_4}}$, ${\ce {N2O}}$ and ${\ce {NH_3}}$, show an increasing trend with the increase in production. Developing economies such as Vietnam, India and Brazil will see significant increases in CO₂ or other air pollutant emissions as they receive industrial shifts, while Canada's CO₂ emissions will rise based on the USMCA agreement.

Energy Supplies

Oil is being obtained to execute the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, and fossil fuel production in the United States, including the coking and petroleum refining industries, is continuing to rise as a result of the Trump administration's plans for energy independence. The U.S.-China trade war did not affect the value of U.S. exports of energy and energy-related products such as oil, natural gas, and petroleum products until mid-2018 through September 2019. Its reduced deliveries of LNG to China helped increase LNG exports from other countries and effectively stimulated the emergence of energy supply chains in other countries. If the U.S.-China trade war continues to occur, energy consumption in other countries based on U.S.-China energy demand will increase with the emergence of new energy supply markets. U.S. imports of photovoltaic modules from China fell from 10.8% to 2.7%, while at the same time the Vietnamese market traded up by about 14%. China's technological transformation is dominating the production and supply of renewable energy and batteries, and its trade volumes with the rest of the world have not been affected by the trade war. The U.S. trade sanctions against China have encouraged domestic solar technology adoption, reducing some of the negative effects of trade barriers.

Agricultural Impact

US Farmers Ditch Soybeans Amid Trade War with China

The U.S. and China are major trading nations in the crop market, and China's trade barriers and tariffs against U.S. soybeans have had an ecosystem impact on global land use shifts. China's 35% tariff increase on U.S. soybeans has shifted U.S. farmers' cultivation targets to crops that are less traded with China, such as corn, thereby increasing the nitrogen surplus by 35 million kilograms and increasing U.S. demand for blue water. Crops such as corn are fertilizer-intensive, which increases the potential for phosphorus and nitrogen surpluses, and also increases the demand for blue water in the United States. Brazil, on the other hand, is a profitable player in the U.S.-China trade war against soybeans, as China shifts the market for soybean demand to Brazil, where prices are cheaper. Based on its highly weathered, naturally acidic soils, large amounts of phosphate fertilizer and lime are necessary to grow soybeans in Brazil, which helps the soil produce natural and applied phosphorus. The large amounts of phosphate fertilizer and lime in the land can pollute Brazilian water bodies. Meanwhile in China, except for the southeast and northeast, the demand for blue water and the potential for excess phosphorus will increase as a result of the increased demand for domestic crop production.