Talk:Statewide opinion polling for the 2024 United States presidential election

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Move Trump vs. Biden poll in Colorado to Hypothetical due to recent removal?

I have nothing against either candidates but due to the ruling in Colorado, due to accuracy, should we move the Colorado poll of Trump v Biden to Hypothetical until it gets overturned. 2600:100B:B1C5:E5F8:A065:BD91:EF9B:D122 (talk) 19:49, 20 December 2023 (UTC)[reply]

Sorry for the late reply. For now, it can stay since the ruling is not yet in effect. I lean towards adding to hypothetical if the ruling goes into effect. Yes, SCOTUS could eventually overturn the ruling, but I think reflecting the current situation would be in line with WP:CRYSTAL. Prcc27 (talk) 02:08, 25 December 2023 (UTC)[reply]

shouldn't it go in date order?

in other words, Sabato -> Cook -> CNN -> IE -> CNalysis. i would do it if it wasn't so sourcecoded 2603:6011:9600:52C0:39F5:EF1E:9EEE:4A9A (talk) 01:40, 12 June 2024 (UTC)[reply]

also new sabato crystal ball forecast (june 13, 2024):

Electoral College Rating Changes: Half-Dozen Moves Toward Republicans in What Remains a Toss-up Race - Sabato's Crystal Ball (centerforpolitics.org)

Sabato's Crystal Ball 2024 Electoral College Race Ratings - 270toWin 2603:6011:9600:52C0:297A:8AC6:C149:DB2F (talk) 03:18, 15 June 2024 (UTC)[reply]

538 aggregates

Why are only some state aggregates listed for 538? At first, I thought it was because only swing and lean states were added, but then I saw California listed.. Prcc27 (talk) 13:26, 4 July 2024 (UTC)[reply]

Harris won the newest Georgia poll, why does it look like Trump did?

Harris won 48.3% and Trump got 48.2%, yet the poll makes it look like Trump won. This is clearly a mistake aight? Leikstjórinn (talk) 18:16, 4 September 2024 (UTC)[reply]

transclude only polls for Harris matchup

This would fix the size issues SecretName101 (talk) 20:25, 16 September 2024 (UTC)[reply]

There is... literally nothing for the entirety of the Polling section..?

There's nothing but redirects to the pages for the polls in those states, can we get on this.. Cedaria00 (talk) 07:27, 17 September 2024 (UTC)[reply]

RealClearPolling

I noticed RealClearPolling was removed from the aggregates for all states on this page. Why was that the case? RCP was consistently the most accurate aggregator for the 2020 election, while FiveThirtyEight et al. were often many points off. 97.98.223.2 (talk) 21:27, 5 October 2024 (UTC)[reply]

MAP of Leading presidential candidate by state

Can sombody make a map for Leading presidential candidate by state or district/electoral vote count, based on opinion polls. The 2020, 2016 and 2012 pages have this. Can sombody make one for this 2024 page. Muaza Husni (talk) 10:00, 6 October 2024 (UTC)[reply]

Reason for removal of RealClearPolitics polling average?

For nearly the entirety of the election cycle, this page displayed those polling averages, as do the pages for all recent presidential election polls. Given that these averages were frequently the most accurate, especially in 2020, wouldn't it be in the advantage of the reader for the RealClearPolitics average to also be included with the other aggregate poll averages? — Preceding unsigned comment added by 2600:6C40:6B00:3EC9:C73:137:2B08:2AB2 (talk) 23:43, 6 October 2024 (UTC)[reply]

Map Error

Why does the election map suggest Florida is a tossup when every forecaster predicts it voting for Trump? 22090912l (talk) 12:16, 9 October 2024 (UTC)[reply]

The map uses the average of aggregate margins, putting states with less than a 5% margin in the tossup category. While forecasters (many of which use win probability instead of win margin) have had FL in the Lean R or Likely R category for weeks/months, it was below a 5% average margin until a few days ago. An update to the map is in order, although I am unable to do so. --Spiffy sperry (talk) 19:08, 9 October 2024 (UTC)[reply]

Trump is now still ahead of Harris in Florida as of October 13 by over 5%. The margin is 45.2% to Harris and 50.5% to Trump. Thus, the lead seems to be a long enough timespan for Florida to be included as a 5–10% lead for Trump. Additionally, most pollsters have a consensus that Florida is also not a considered a swing state. Guotaian (talk) 12:37, 13 October 2024 (UTC)[reply]

I updated Florida on the map. Heitordp (talk) 11:56, 16 October 2024 (UTC)[reply]

Economist forecast

@Spiffy sperry: I don't have full access to the Economist, but I had updated the forecast table based on the top sentence for each state on the website, which is available to any viewer: "almost certain"=safe, "favoured"=likely, "slightly ahead"=lean, "very close"=tossup. Is this classification incorrect? If so, please check Illinois and New Jersey, which I removed from the table assuming that they were safe/solid in all columns. If the Economist considers them likely instead of safe, please restore them to the table. Thanks. Heitordp (talk) 14:51, 30 October 2024 (UTC)[reply]

I'm not sure your classification is correct, though there is room for discussion. See their national map, which is linked at the top of the table in this article. Their middle and darkest shades, which are labeled "very likely" and "safe", are both translated to the "almost certain" headlines on their individual state pages. I think it is preferable to differentiate between the two shades they use in our table here. --Spiffy sperry (talk) 16:36, 30 October 2024 (UTC)[reply]

Post-expand include size limit exceeded

The Post-expand include size limit has been exceeded on this page, causing references and other templates and the end of the article not to display correctly. This is because the bulk of the content on this page is transcluded from the individual state pages. There are two solutions to this:

Convert all transclusions into links, e.g. change {{#section-h:2024 United States presidential election in Alaska|Polling}} to {{see|2024 United States presidential election in Alaska#Polling}}, making this an index page instead of a large list.
Move all the polling data from the states' articles into this one and have the states transclude this article instead of the other way around.

Thoughts? --Ahecht (TALK
PAGE) 14:00, 31 October 2024 (UTC)[reply]

There are 140 different notes, and most are used many times. Each one uses the {{efn}} template to include minor details. Another option would be to convert these to use ref tags with a group name, or simply drop these notes. There are columns in the tables for other/undecided so there's no need for a note to break that down further. -- LCU ActivelyDisinterested «@» °∆t° 06:17, 3 November 2024 (UTC)[reply]

Using ref tags instead of {{efn}} and {{efn-ua}} made a minimal difference (it allowed ~40 more citations to appear correctly). --Ahecht (TALK
PAGE) 20:18, 3 November 2024 (UTC)[reply]

I hate doing it, but I went ahead and converted all the citation template calls to module calls, which resolved the issue for now. --Ahecht (TALK
PAGE) 20:48, 3 November 2024 (UTC)[reply]

File:Opinion polls for the United States presidential election in 2024.svg and Kansas

Does anyone know why this map that we're showing is having Kansas as a lean Republican? 538 currently gives Trump an over 99% chance to win Kansas, and The Hill also has Trump at over 99% chance to win Kansas. I'm not seeing anything where anyone important is saying Kansas is only a lean situation. Hog Farm _Talk 00:33, 1 November 2024 (UTC)[reply]

Pinging Heitordp as they are the primary maintainer of the map; I'm interested to know what source that is coming from. Hog Farm _Talk 00:34, 1 November 2024 (UTC)[reply]

The map is based on polling. There is only one poll on our article for KS, and it shows a close race. Prcc27 (talk) 00:43, 1 November 2024 (UTC)[reply]

See the explanations above and below the map. The colors represent the leads from recent polls, not a probability of winning like 538 and similar websites. The only poll for Kansas shown in the article has leads of 9, 11 and 5%, so on average between 5 and 10%, which corresponds to the light red color. 270towin's polling map also shows Kansas in light red. I'm open to using a different set of criteria for the map, but we would need to define it. Heitordp (talk) 02:14, 1 November 2024 (UTC)[reply]

The average of aggregate polls in Iowa and New Hampshire and the latest poll in Maine district 2 have become less than 5%. But other users have complained when the map showed states that were not considered "tossup" in gray, so to avoid adding states in gray I changed the map scale to multiples of 4%, which was also done by 270towin. This way the states with averages between 4 and 5% remain light red or light blue, and Kansas becomes middle red. Heitordp (talk) 05:09, 4 November 2024 (UTC)[reply]

Comparison with actual results

- I assume this is the most correct source for state wise polls for such comparison with actual results?

- Is it/will it be possible to see comparison on this/other wiki page, between such concise wiki polls data and actual results? 2402:E280:3E19:BD4:34A5:E55A:112A:F1E0 (talk) 07:32, 6 November 2024 (UTC)[reply]