Talk:List of Starship launches

Flight test 6 date

Redacted II The tweet cited for the November 2024 date is not a valid source. It is speculation on the part of the author, not an announcement of a launch. Please wait until we have official confirmation of the date. Narnianknight (talk) 21:18, 22 October 2024 (UTC)

Official confirmation of a date is not required for listing the launch date. Confirmation is only required for listing the launch itself (and Flight 6 has been confirmed).

And there are guidlines for when the launch date is more finalized

"When a more exact launch date is announced, we add a new source next to the date." - List of Falcon 9 and Falcon Heavy Launches Redacted II (talk) 22:05, 22 October 2024 (UTC)

We don't actually have a launch date estimate at all, so we list 2024 as the most general NET date so it isn't left blank (NET 2024 cannot be incorrect; it also doesn't really make a claim like "October 2024" would).

Usually the main ref is in the payload column, and the date has no ref, assuming the date is included in the main source (the payload column is blank here; we could still put the ref there though I suppose). That sentence just means a ref to an updated date that is more accurate than the main source. However, we don't have such a source yet. The NET date should therefore be left generalized until a plan is announced. Narnianknight (talk) 22:45, 22 October 2024 (UTC)

Since we don't have a "main source", then (almost) any source is more accurate. And I hope it doesn't need to be repeated, but NSF is a WP:RS. Thus, the claim of "Flight 6 in November!" is a reliable one.

If SpaceX does later say "Flight 6 NET December", then it will be updated. Until then, NET November is the best date we have. Redacted II (talk) 22:52, 22 October 2024 (UTC)

You cannot just claim "NSF is WP:RS," and suddenly everything that comes from the organization is a reliable source. You are the only one who claims this as far as I'm aware (besides, the FAQ only mentions the website; also WP:RSPTWITTER). Chris Bergin's tweet does not claim that SpaceX plan to launch in November. It merely suggests the possibility in his opinion. Feel free to ask him his intentions if you disagree. If NSF did have insider knowledge about SpaceX's plans, they would put it in an article or at least clarify that the source of the info is external to their own opinions. "A bad source is better than no source" is not a good argument and is not correct. Narnianknight (talk) 23:40, 22 October 2024 (UTC)

Again, official confirmation is not needed. SpaceX does not need to say "Launch in November" for the article to list "NET November"

For example, if "Official confirmation was used for IFT-4, the IFT-4 date would have stated "NET 2024" until May 24. 13 days before launch. IIRC, IFT-5 came 6 days before launch. That, IMO, is undesirable.

The Chris Bergin tweet supports the claim of a November launch for IFT-6. That claim doesn't need insider info. Redacted II (talk) 00:27, 23 October 2024 (UTC)

I believe the Falcon 9 list people knew what they were doing when they said, "Future launches are listed chronologically when firm plans are in place." NextSpaceflight is also run (or sponsored or something) by NSF, and it says NET 2024. I repeat, Chris Bergin never claimed a launch in would happen in November. He said, "... it really could be game on for Flight 6 in November!" merely claiming the possibility of such an occurrence. That is what the word "could" means. The presentation of information should be based on meaningful sources, not desirability. Narnianknight (talk) 00:47, 23 October 2024 (UTC)

NET:

No Earlier Than. Or, a possibility.

The possibility was repeated here maybe ten minutes ago. Redacted II (talk) 00:58, 23 October 2024 (UTC)

All dates in the list are implicitly NET as well. What's your point? Narnianknight (talk) 01:10, 23 October 2024 (UTC)

That saying its claiming the possibility of a launch in November is sufficient to list "NET November" Redacted II (talk) 01:21, 23 October 2024 (UTC)

It seems we fundamentally disagree on what the Future launches section is. I believe it is a collection of planned launches. Correct me if I'm wrong: you believe it is a collection of possible launches. Thus, I believe a plan for each detail must be cited, and you believe a possibility for each detail must be cited. Is that accurate? Narnianknight (talk) 01:34, 23 October 2024 (UTC)

Your interpretation of how I view the Future Launches section is incorrect.

We do agree that it is a collection of planned launches (though "Inclusion criteria for Future launces" points out our disagreement in this area: you want official confirmation of the launch, while I think a sourced statement from NSF or similar media is sufficient). (Please correct me if I'm wrong here) But while you want each detail to be cited via official sources, like before, I view NSF as a sufficiently reliable source to list details like NET dates.

A source backing the possibility of a launch in November is, IMO, sufficient to list that launch as set for NET November. Redacted II (talk) 01:43, 23 October 2024 (UTC)

Obviously the source does not have to come directly from a launch provider or payload customer, but I think the information must have ultimately originated from one or the other (to the best of our knowledge). I view nasaspaceflight.com articles to be sufficiently reliable sources, but not tweets that are not making specific claims of launch provider intent. NSF (tweets and articles) do a good job of using language like "possibly," "likely," "perhaps," and "could" when they speculate rather than passing off their own ideas as fact. This is one thing that sets them apart as reliable. Because of this, it's pretty easy to tell whether they are making a claim of fact or providing their own opinions. I believe the former, not the latter, make valid WP sources. If NSF unequivocally make a claim that SpaceX or anyone else will do something, I won't doubt them just because there's not confirmation through official channels. Narnianknight (talk) 02:07, 23 October 2024 (UTC)

Well, thanks for correcting my assumption!

I still must disagree: information doesn't have to originate from the launch provider (SpaceX) or payload customer (also SpaceX). I have tried adding a note to such claims from NSF, but it broke the reflist, and so was removed (the exact note was: "Estimate from NASASpaceflight, unconfirmed by SpaceX"). Redacted II (talk) 02:21, 23 October 2024 (UTC)

If the ultimate origin of the information is not from the planners, then the source is just making things up. Sorry for waxing philosophical here, but intent can by definition only originate from the mind of the intender. If this is to be a list of planned items, the items had better actually be planned.

We can keep arguing about this, but either way, in this particular case, Chris Bergin did not make any claims about SpaceX's plans. Narnianknight (talk) 03:08, 23 October 2024 (UTC)

Intent can be inferred (but not confirmed).

Chris Bergin has claimed that a November launch is possible. Adding a note to such claims would be preferable, but such notes induce errors in the reflist Redacted II (talk) 11:37, 23 October 2024 (UTC)

Intent such as planning to fly a suborbital trajectory can be inferred, because they have only done that so far (along with other evidence); however, intent of launch date cannot be inferred without evidence, as it is unpredictable.

The list is about things SpaceX are planning, and Bergin made no claim to what they are planning. Narnianknight (talk) 15:34, 23 October 2024 (UTC)

But there is evidence.

B13 is already on the OLM, which was the evidence referenced in the source. Redacted II (talk) 16:01, 23 October 2024 (UTC)

Again, that's evidence that there is a possibility of November in Bergin's opinion, not evidence that SpaceX are planning for November. Narnianknight (talk) 16:47, 23 October 2024 (UTC)

But the possibility of November is all that is needed to list that the launch is NET November Redacted II (talk) 17:13, 23 October 2024 (UTC)

You have failed to demonstrate how Bergin's opinions qualify as SpaceX's plans. Narnianknight (talk) 17:16, 23 October 2024 (UTC)

Again, the source doesn't have to say "SpaceX is planning to fly in November", only that November is the earliest that they can fly. Redacted II (talk) 18:51, 23 October 2024 (UTC)

Why do we care about a guess of the earliest date they can fly? If we want to write fan trivia for what SpaceX could do, we can do that over on the Fandom Starship SpaceX Wiki.

How have you determined that a list of things SpaceX is planning should include things other than SpaceX's plans? Narnianknight (talk) 19:48, 23 October 2024 (UTC)

It can include claims from reliable sources (like NSF) describing the earliest date SpaceX can launch.

NET is No Earlier Than. The possibility of a launch. So a source that says that they might launch in November is sufficient for saying that they might launch in November. Redacted II (talk) 20:30, 23 October 2024 (UTC)

That answers neither of my questions.

Why would we lower our standards that far? By that logic, I could go find any prediction or idea of what could happen from the commentators on an NSF stream, put it here, and pass it off as SpaceX's official plan. This would obviously be disingenuous, because they were not reporting on SpaceX's plans and were not pretending to do so.

If we allow sources like that, it is no longer a list of future launches but rather a Fun Compilation of Things People on the Internet Think SpaceX Might Do. Narnianknight (talk) 21:05, 23 October 2024 (UTC)

The question isn't "Why we should lower our standards that far", its "Why we should raise it that high"

Looking at this dif, source for IFT-3 was a Musk Tweet. As does this dif for IFT-4.

This one uses SpaceNews, which IIRC, is not WP:RS.

This dif uses a NSF video for IFT-5.

Prior precedent does not put the bar where you think it is.

(Also, I did try to add a note labeling a similar statement as claim from NSF previously, but it did mess with the reflist) Redacted II (talk) 21:18, 23 October 2024 (UTC)

Elon Musk works at SpaceX. SpaceX employees are the ones doing the planning.

Jeff Foust was reporting on a direct statement from a SpaceX employee.

The transcript of that video does not even contain the word August. We cannot justify bad refs with other bad refs in the past (there have been many).

To determine whether a source supports a statement, we have to look at all aspects of the source, not just some golden status of "WP:RS." From WP:NEWSORG:

"News sources often contain both factual content and opinion content."

"Whether a specific news story is reliable for a fact or statement should be examined on a case-by-case basis."

"Editorial commentary, analysis and opinion pieces ... are reliable primary sources for statements attributed to that editor or author, but are rarely reliable for statements of fact. (see also § Statements of opinion, below)."

From Talk:SpaceX Starship:

"NASASpaceFlight.com, generally reliable but need some check to separate speculation from reported facts, as with the case of freshly reported news."

If we look at this source circumspectly, we realize

1. This is Twitter, not nasaspaceflight.com, and thus deserves a higher level of scrutiny than a news article
2. Bergin uses the account as a personal account
3. Most importantly, the tweet does not make a claim about SpaceX's plans

It is not usually very hard to differentiate between sources that make specific claims and ones that are opinion in nature. It is only reasonable to keep this list to only things that SpaceX is planning and to treat sources that are not even claiming to report plans as just that. Narnianknight (talk) 22:11, 23 October 2024 (UTC)

How does a source that says "could be game on for Flight 6 in November" not support "NET November 2024"

All your arguments have failed to explain how a source that suggests the possibility of a launch in November cannot be used to state the possibility of a launch in November.

But, I'm going to just stop, because this is going nowhere. Redacted II (talk) 22:28, 23 October 2024 (UTC)

A source that suggests the possibility of a launch in November can be used to state the possibility of a launch in November. However, this is not a list of possibilities. It is a list of SpaceX's plans. No amount of "NSF is WP:RS" can change the fact that a source that does not make a claim about SpaceX's plans cannot be used to support a claim about SpaceX's plans. Narnianknight (talk) 22:38, 23 October 2024 (UTC)

https://www.nasaspaceflight.com/2024/10/spacex-aces-flight-5-flight-6/

"Both vehicles are now Static-Fired and ready for integrated testing ahead of a potential November launch"

I'm readding the November 2024 launch date. Redacted II (talk) 22:42, 25 October 2024 (UTC)

Definition of launch failure in this article

Hello all! What constitutes a launch as a failure for the purposes of this article? Should this context be added to the article to give better clarification of why some may call launches a failure while others call them a success? Macota99 (talk) 09:12, 25 October 2024 (UTC)

If you want to know editors' rationale for each decision, be prepared for some book-length reading. The decisions were not made lightly and will not be changed. You can find the discussions in the archives of Talk:SpaceX Starship (the links are in the box at the top).

We could try to put a section in explaining it, but I suspect it would be futile to try to boil the decisions down to a sentence or two that all the editors would agree with. Fortunately, success/failure should be less contentious going forward, once payloads are being flown. Narnianknight (talk) 12:54, 25 October 2024 (UTC)

To sumarize (so that you don't have to wade through ten articles of arguments):

(EDIT: Changed Orbit to Trajectory, as IFT-3 through IFT-5 were suborbital -Redacted II)

Destruction of vehicle means failure. This includes FTS (see IFT-2)

Failure to reach orbit the intended trajectory means failure.

Reaching a usable orbit trajectory, but not the desired one, is a partial failure.

Success is right orbit if the vehicle reaches the intended trajectory.

So, launch success is determined (for these cargoless flights) at the moment of SECO. Redacted II (talk) 22:41, 25 October 2024 (UTC)

And to be clear, "orbit" here means intended trajectory. Narnianknight (talk) 13:27, 26 October 2024 (UTC)

Yes, my bad. Redacted II (talk) 15:23, 26 October 2024 (UTC)