Talk:Hurricane Michael/Archives/2018/October

Requested move 9 October 2018

The following is a closed discussion of a requested move. Please do not modify it. Subsequent comments should be made in a new section on the talk page. Editors desiring to contest the closing decision should consider a move review. No further edits should be made to this section.

The result of the move request was: Withdrawn by nominator Figfires^{Send me a message!} 03:05, 9 October 2018 (UTC)

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Hurricane Michael (2018) → Hurricane Michael – has caused 13 deaths thus far (reported) and likely many more since it is still impacting the area... likely to be destructive to the US no matter what strength it makes landfall at. Figfires^{Send me a message!} 00:50, 9 October 2018 (UTC)

• Hold on until the name was retired. The 2000 one also has impact on Atlantic Canada. For now, it is too early to determine if this is the primary topic or not. --B dash (talk) 01:30, 9 October 2018 (UTC)

@B dash: Honestly, that is quite inaccurate. 13 deaths now (and more likely since Cuba hasnt been reported) is far more important than a storm from 18 years ago that killed nobody and has unknown damages. Might as well move Florence back to Hurricane Florence (2018) until it is retired.Figfires^{Send me a message!} 01:41, 9 October 2018 (UTC)

• Hold your damn horses wait till effects. it wouldn't make sense if we moved it now. DerpieDerpie:D 01:34, 9 October 2018 (UTC)
• Oppose for several reasons. One, it could easily bust and come ashore a C1 and make small impacts. Two, as B dash said, 2000 had notable impacts in Canada. This falls well under the category of WP:TOOSOON. 13 deaths in Central America is not a main focus of the storm. --MarioProtIV (^talk/_contribs) 02:46, 9 October 2018 (UTC)
• Hold on, it hasn't even made landfall yet. – The Grid (talk) 03:00, 9 October 2018 (UTC)

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The above discussion is preserved as an archive of a requested move. Please do not modify it. Subsequent comments should be made in a new section on this talk page or in a move review. No further edits should be made to this section.

Semi-protected edit request on 10 October 2018

Resolved

Year in the box is wrong 219.79.127.31 (talk) 06:03, 10 October 2018 (UTC)

 Done ~ Cyclonebiskit (chat) 07:09, 10 October 2018 (UTC)

Move memorandum

As it appears everyone is opposed to moving this storm now, why not have a memorandum to prohibit moving until damage estimates come out? Only exception to that would be if a decent loss of life occurred (30-40+). I would rather see this moved the right way than some random editor simply moving it for no reason (like what happened with Florence). Figfires^{Send me a message!} 03:11, 9 October 2018 (UTC)

Florence was moved because it fell within WP:PRIMARYTOPIC. --MarioProtIV (^talk/_contribs) 03:18, 9 October 2018 (UTC)

When it was moved, it did not. It was still 3-4 days away. That doesnt constitute Primary topic. This system has had a lot of impact in Central America and Cuba which doesnt constitute primary topic according to the consensus. Figfires^{Send me a message!} 03:29, 9 October 2018 (UTC)

When Hurricane Florence was moved there it was due to the severe damage potential. Sometimes things are notable when it came to the future although it didn't go as Crystal Ball policy on what Wikipedia isn't. Felicia (talk) 12:16, 9 October 2018 (UTC)

I moved the page over, since there are hurricane warnings, and the storm is expected to be a major hurricane at landfall. Florence was getting plenty of media attention in the days leading to its landfall, and so is Michael. More people are searching for "Hurricane Michael" than "Hurricane Michael (2018)", so it's a no brainer. ♫ Hurricanehink (talk) 12:37, 9 October 2018 (UTC)

Has been moved back due to the clear amount of people opposing it. Need to wait until landfall as it could bust and do little. Lane was predicted to make landfall/a very close approach as a C5 in Hawaii originally and we never moved it to Hurricane Lane. Don't see how this is any different. As multiple people have said WP:TOOSOON. Figfires^{Send me a message!} 14:37, 9 October 2018 (UTC)

I moved it back to main topic since now it is on the verge of being a major hurricane and it is likely to be the most significant Michael (likely even bigger then 2000). --MarioProtIV (^talk/_contribs) 14:47, 9 October 2018 (UTC)

Well whatever you guys decide on, please stick to it. Ahhh – The Grid (talk) 14:50, 9 October 2018 (UTC)

What changed in less than 12 hours? The same predictions for strength and everyone is now happy go lucky about moving it.Figfires^{Send me a message!} 14:56, 9 October 2018 (UTC)

If this becomes a major (it is currently at 110 mph), I will approve of this move. Regardless, the 13 deaths in Central America is significant, but I wonder if this becomes something like Nate or Opal. Vida0007 (talk) 14:59, 9 October 2018 (UTC)

This is already a borderline major hurricane, and is predicted to hit tomorrow. That is good enough reason to move the article title, which really only matters for search results. If the storm ends up being a dud, we can always move it back. Hurricanehink mobile (talk) 15:10, 9 October 2018 (UTC)

Agreed, if it turns out a dud, move it back, but for now all indications suggest a bad storm. Nate was not moved until it was officially retired since we were never in agreement it would be, and Opal is not a good comparison since it was the only storm named that but would have deserved the main article on impact alone once it rapidly intensified. CrazyC83 (talk) 22:01, 9 October 2018 (UTC)

Up to last night, I thought this was going to be a dud too. Instead, it will be another retired name. KyuuA4 (Talk:キュウ) 11:32, 10 October 2018 (UTC)

Agreed, it's obvious now Michael will be retired. Definitely leave it. CrazyC83 (talk) 20:11, 10 October 2018 (UTC)

Maximum Sustained Wind Speed

According to NOAA I can only find maximum wind speeds of up to 145 mph. I'd like to ask for the source for 155 mph. Rhv0065 (talk) 00:04, 11 October 2018 (UTC)

@Rhv0065: Hurricane Michael Intermediate Advisory Number 16A there is your source. Figfires^{Send me a message!} 00:24, 11 October 2018 (UTC)

Power outages

Power outages are now nearing 500,000 people 2606:A000:61DA:7800:D08:809:C98C:DD1E (talk) 00:24, 11 October 2018 (UTC)

Semi-protected edit request on 11 October 2018

One man has dies from hurricane Michael already in result of a tree falling on him. 68.54.239.89 (talk) 00:35, 11 October 2018 (UTC)

 Not done: please provide reliable sources that support the change you want to be made. – The Grid (talk) 01:24, 11 October 2018 (UTC)

Semi-protected edit request on 10 October 2018

Reference 13 contains a dead link. It needs to be updated to NHC Discussion #17, which substantiates the claims made in the article. 167.131.0.195 (talk) 22:05, 10 October 2018 (UTC)

 Not done, the source doesn’t say that it was the third-most intense Atlantic hurricane to ever make landfall in the United States, it only says the pressure. ~SML • TP 22:13, 10 October 2018 (UTC)

Reopening, as pressure is a primary measure of tropical cyclone intensity. The source states that Michael had "the third lowest landfall pressure in the United States", and the article states that Michael made landfall at peak intensity, "ranking by pressure as the third-most intense Atlantic hurricane to ever make landfall in the United States". Reword the article if you think it necessary, but either way the dead link needs to updated to substantiate the claim. 167.131.0.195 (talk) 22:34, 10 October 2018 (UTC)

It’s not dead, it was just written wrong. ~SML • TP 22:37, 10 October 2018 (UTC)

The reference now links to Advisory #16A, which makes no mention of the claim (third-lowest landfall pressure) made in the article. 167.131.0.195 (talk) 22:44, 10 October 2018 (UTC)

 Already done--B dash (talk) 01:46, 11 October 2018 (UTC)

A Commons file used on this page has been nominated for speedy deletion

The following Wikimedia Commons file used on this page has been nominated for speedy deletion:

• Preparations for hurricane michael.jpg

You can see the reason for deletion at the file description page linked above. —Community Tech bot (talk) 02:06, 11 October 2018 (UTC)

Semi-protected edit request on 11 October 2018

This is an incomplete sentence: "The thirteenth named storm, seventh hurricane, and second major hurricane of the 2018 Atlantic hurricane season.

It can be corrected by changing the period to a comma. Itsonlypaint0217 (talk) 20:11, 11 October 2018 (UTC)

 Done I have fixed the sentence you pointed out. I also split the part about the development off as it made the sentence a run-on. Figfires^{Send me a message!} 21:53, 11 October 2018 (UTC)

Records table should me moved

This table should not appear on this article for many reasons. The biggest reason is, it should be an article of its own if it’s not already. Second, if this table appeared on every article about hurricanes, keeping it up to date would be impossible. Hurricane Maria appears on this table, but a quick check shows the table is not on that article. Just my 2 cents. Thoughts? — TadgStirkland⁴⁰¹ (Tadg^Talk) 01:00, 12 October 2018 (UTC)

Sorry to burst your bubble, but this table is on Maria's article. I see no reason why the table should be removed. Your point about it being impossible to keep the table/articles up to date wouldn't be a big issue. Only the top 10 storms are in the table.Figfires^{Send me a message!} 02:05, 12 October 2018 (UTC)

edit request

In "impact" section, please change occurrences of piped link [[Mexico Beach, Florida|Mexico Beach]] to unpiped Mexico Beach, Florida, to make it clear that Mexico Beach is in Florida not in Mexico. Also change occurrences of Panama City (referring to the Florida city and not to the capital of the country of Panama) the same way. Thanks. 98.210.48.122 (talk) 01:20, 12 October 2018 (UTC)

 Done L293D (☎ • ✎) 01:22, 12 October 2018 (UTC)

Thanks. In the part about impact on radio and TV stations, can you also fix the mention of Panama City? Actually the current version of the article doesn't say anything earlier about Panama City, so I suspect something was edited out of an earlier version.

CNN has a live blog of damage reports indicating severe damage in Mexico Beach and other places.[1] Maybe some of it can be used in the article. 98.210.48.122 (talk) 02:20, 12 October 2018 (UTC)

Picture of damage in Florida

A picture, preferably an aerial photo would be nice. I found this picture 1 and this picture 2 although I'm not sure if they are copyrighted or not. Alex of Canada (talk) 04:17, 12 October 2018 (UTC)

@Alex of Canada: both are copyrighted but NOAA aerial surveys will provide a lot of pictures as will FEMA and National Guard. ~ Cyclonebiskit (chat) 05:11, 12 October 2018 (UTC)

Map Track

According to the NHC Hurricane Michael was still a category 3 4 hours after landfall — Preceding unsigned comment added by BananaIAm (talk • contribs) 17:34, 11 October 2018 (UTC)

 Not done Description of map image: The points show the location of the storm at 6-hour intervals. – The Grid (talk) 18:00, 11 October 2018 (UTC)

References

I don't believe 6 hours after landfall it was a category 1. I'm sure the NHC will release it's full track later however BananaIAm (talk) 19:21, 11 October 2018 (UTC)

I'm saying the map shows 6 hour intervals. The track shown doesn't plot the point where the immediate landfall was made. I'm sure @Master0Garfield: can clarify. – The Grid (talk) 20:09, 11 October 2018 (UTC)

I create tracks using the best track archives. That's how the official tracks are made with a point every six hours. - Master0Garfield (talk) 11:20, 12 October 2018 (UTC)

Records Table left out Hurricane Opal

Wiki's account of Opal (1995 FL Panhandle) stipulates it as a Cat 4 with 150 winds and barometric pressure of 916 mbar, making it the lowest pressure since Camille. Yet it isn't accounted for in your records table. Thank you. — Preceding unsigned comment added by 2601:1C2:4E01:CD49:39E6:E403:F6DC:2A4A (talk) 17:45, 12 October 2018 (UTC)

@2601:1C2:4E01:CD49:39E6:E403:F6DC:2A4A: The table only accounts for the intensity of tropical cyclones at the time they made landfall, instead of their overall peak intensity. While Opal peaked at that intensity while over the Gulf of Mexico, it made landfall at a lower intensity of 115 mph and 942 mbar. See page 6 of the Preliminary Report on Opal. --Dylan620 (talk) 18:09, 12 October 2018 (UTC)

Thank you Dylan for your prompt reply. And thank you for the link to that very informative report. I saw in the report that there were wind gusts reported up to 125 knots (<144 mph) from Hurlbert Field, in Ft Walton Beach, Florida. If accurate, that's more than Michael was measured at Tyndal AFB. This topic piques my interest, as I moved near there back in 1979, and enjoy studying hurricanes. Thank you very much! Respectfully, Jeff — Preceding unsigned comment added by 2601:1C2:4E01:CD49:DCF8:5F41:AEC:841C (talk) 20:16, 12 October 2018 (UTC)

Compare strength/intensity with continental US hurricanes

The claim that Michael was the third-most intense and strongest storm in the US since Andrew is more accurately stated with respect to the continental or contiguous US.

Otherwise, Michael's 155 mph/919 mbar is on par with -- or not as strong as -- Irma and Maria when they hit the US territory of the United States Virgin Islands (including Saint John and Saint Croix) and the US commonwealth of Puerto Rico (including Vieques).

Consulting the NHC forecast archives at the relevant times, it appears that:

• Irma was slightly less than 185/920 in St John and St Thomas;
• Maria was slightly less than 165/910 in St Croix;
• Maria was 160/917 over Vieques;
• Maria was 155/917 near Yabucoa.

--Gruepig (talk) 22:37, 14 October 2018 (UTC)

@Gruepig: The pressures and wind speeds only apply to systems that made landfall in their respective regions. Irma never actually made landfall in any of the US Virgin islands, rather it made a direct hit on St John and St Thomas. As for Maria, it never made landfall in St. Croix, and although its eyewall was over Vieques while it was still a Category 5 storm, it weakened to 155 mph by the time of landfall. So Marias landfall in Puerto Rico is the only one that counts. Even still, post-season analysis raised Marias pressure at landfall from 917 to 920, so Michaels landfall intensity of 155/919 is still lower than Marias 155/920. Undescribed (talk) 00:22, 15 October 2018 (UTC)

@Undescribed: Thanks for the clarification! So is it accurate to say it was the third-most intense to make landfall in (all of) the United States, but to include "contiguous" in the sentence about being the strongest to strike? Or does "strike" also imply eye? - Gruepig (talk) 01:51, 15 October 2018 (UTC)

@Gruepig: You're welcome! "Strike" can actually refer to both a landfall and a direct hit, in which the eye wall comes ashore, but the actual center of the storm stays offshore; ie. 2016's Hurricane Matthew in Florida. So I think that using the word "landfall" in the sentence is more appropriate than "strike", at least in Michaels case.
When including the US territories of Guam and Puerto Rico, Michael is tied with the 1900 Guam typhoon and 2017's Maria as the 6th strongest tropical cyclone to make landfall the US in terms of wind speed (see:Template:Strongest U.S. landfalling hurricanes for more info). When not including US territories, Michael is the 4th strongest behind 1935 Labor Day, Camille 1969, and Andrew 1992.
Now in terms of pressure, Michael is officially the 3rd most intense in both the CONUS and the US in general; only 1935 Labor Day and Camille had lower pressures at landfall. (see:Template:Most intense US hurricanes for more info) Undescribed (talk) 02:52, 15 October 2018 (UTC)

References

Florida Death Toll

Death toll being reported in Florida alone is now 21. [2] With the 1 death in Georgia, 3 in NC, and 6 in Virgina this would bring the death toll in the U.S. to 31. --Kuzwa (talk) 19:27, 16 October 2018 (UTC)

Florida sub-article

First, I wish everyone is safe in the path of the storm. We'll find out in the coming days, as Wikipedians edit this article and write about the storm's fury. If anyone is so inclined, go ahead and make a draft for a sub-article for Effects of Hurricane Michael in Florida. I hate to say, but we'll need it, and if past storms are any indication, the damage and news reports will rush in over the next few days.

This article is still lacking. In the future, the preparations section should be split off, check for impacts in the Yucatán, and keep up with the inland effects, especially Alabama and Georgia. ♫ Hurricanehink (talk) 18:36, 10 October 2018 (UTC)

Not sure how to do this, but I was hoping someone could add information about the damage to the rural inland counties. Those counties are very poor and don't have the rental homes and taxable values that come with beach front property. I live in one of those communities and it just seems like they keep getting overlooked. — Preceding unsigned comment added by 164.51.30.225 (talk) 21:47, 17 October 2018 (UTC)

Semi-protected edit request on 18 October 2018

Total in Deaths by country should be 48 219.78.191.243 (talk) 03:04, 18 October 2018 (UTC)

 Done--B dash (talk) 03:52, 18 October 2018 (UTC)

Over a thousand still missing

Should we mention that over a thousand people are still missing? Source: https://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/hurricane-michael-missing_us_5bc72b3de4b0d38b5873c701 INeedSupport^{(Care free to give me support?)} 23:26, 21 October 2018 (UTC)

Updated with a more recent source. ~ KN2731 {t · c} 01:25, 22 October 2018 (UTC)

Inconsistent Records

It says: "Hurricane Michael was the most intense tropical cyclone to strike the United States since Andrew in 1992", but in the records section "Michael is the most intense landfalling U.S. hurricane since Camille in 1969" both without specification of wind or pressure. They should be consistent or at least say which is which. — Preceding unsigned comment added by Syryquil1 (talk • contribs) 12:04, 12 October 2018 (UTC)

Well those are using wind speed and pressure for the strongest storm. So it is the most intense storm with wind speeds at landfall in the U.S. since Andrew. And it is the most intense storm in terms of pressure at landfall since Camille in terms of pressure. So the records are not inconsistent. Felicia (talk) 18:54, 23 October 2018 (UTC)

Damages are estimated to 20 to 40 Billion dollars worth of damages

The article says the damages are 8.1 Billion dollars worth of damages, but that is only insured losses and damages in Central America. But the same source for the insured losses says the total damages are in the range of 30 billion dollars to 40 billion dollars worth of damages. Yes, I'm using the source in the article for the total. Felicia (talk) 18:48, 23 October 2018 (UTC)

I don't see where this is, The highest number I've seen is 15 billion, care to link it? BananaIAm (talk) 19:01, 23 October 2018 (UTC)

It is in the one of the sources cited in the article: https://abcnews.go.com/Business/losses-michael-close-10-billion-insurance-companies-prepared/story?id=58511402

I'll put in bold where I'm pointing out. It says in the article: "Insured losses from Hurricane Michael will probably be in the vicinity of $8-$11 billion, according to experts in the insurance industry and academia. They put the overall economic impact in the range of $30 to $40 billion. That number includes lost economic activity, the expense of first responders, uninsured losses and infrastructure repair." So that source has damages from insurance losses which is 8 to 11 billion dollars worth of insured losses. But the overall economic losses and damages are in 30 to 40 billion dollars. It is from what I read in that article, and the same source was used for the insured losses in the damage total. Felicia (talk) 23:28, 23 October 2018 (UTC)

Semi-protected edit request on 27 October 2018

Damage should be $11.18 billion because of the damage of the plane in the air base, see the Florida section. 219.79.126.235 (talk) 12:51, 27 October 2018 (UTC)

 Done Felicia (talk) 22:15, 27 October 2018 (UTC)