Post-election pendulum for the 2022 Australian federal election
 2022 Australian federal election |
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| National results |
| State and territory results |
The Australian Labor Party won the 2022 federal election, winning 77 of 151 seats in the House of Representatives. The Coalition holds 58 seats, and crossbenchers hold the remaining 16.[1]
Classification of seats as marginal, fairly safe or safe is applied by the independent Australian Electoral Commission using the following definition: "Where a winning party receives less than 56% of the vote, the seat is classified as 'marginal', 56–60% is classified as 'fairly safe' and more than 60% is considered 'safe'."[2] Here, 'the vote' is defined as the vote after preferences, where the distribution of preferences has continued to the point where there are only 2 candidates left.
Pendulum
[edit]The Mackerras pendulum was devised by the Australian psephologist Malcolm Mackerras as a way of predicting the outcome of an election contested between two major parties in a Westminster style lower house legislature such as the Australian House of Representatives, which is composed of single-member electorates and which uses a preferential voting system such as a Condorcet method or instant-runoff voting.
The pendulum works by lining up all of the seats held in Parliament for the government, the opposition and the crossbenches according to the percentage point margin they are held by on a two party preferred basis. This is also known as the swing required for the seat to change hands. Given a uniform swing to the opposition or government parties, the number of seats that change hands can be predicted.[3]
| Crossbench seats - 16 | ||||
| Greens seats - 4 | ||||
| Marginal | ||||
| Ryan | Qld | Elizabeth Watson-Brown | GRN vs. LNP | 2.65 |
| Brisbane | Qld | Stephen Bates | GRN vs. LNP | 3.73 |
| Safe | ||||
| Melbourne | Vic | Adam Bandt | GRN vs. ALP | 10.15 |
| Griffith | Qld | Max Chandler-Mather | GRN vs. LNP | 10.46 |
| Other Crossbench - 12 | ||||
| Marginal | ||||
| Curtin | WA | Kate Chaney | IND vs. LIB | 1.26 |
| Fowler | NSW | Dai Le | IND vs. ALP | 1.63 |
| Mackellar | NSW | Sophie Scamps | IND vs. LIB | 2.50 |
| Goldstein | Vic | Zoe Daniel | IND vs. LIB | 2.87 |
| North Sydney | NSW | Kylea Tink | IND vs. LIB | 2.91 |
| Kooyong | Vic | Monique Ryan | IND vs. LIB | 2.94 |
| Wentworth | NSW | Allegra Spender | IND vs. LIB | 4.19 |
| Fairly safe | ||||
| Indi | Vic | Helen Haines | IND vs. LIB | 9.08 |
| Safe | ||||
| Warringah | NSW | Zali Steggall | IND vs. LIB | 10.92 |
| Mayo | SA | Rebekha Sharkie | CA vs. LIB | 12.27 |
| Kennedy | Qld | Bob Katter | KAP vs. LNP | 13.10 |
| Clark | Tas | Andrew Wilkie | IND vs. ALP | 20.82 |
Analysis
[edit]ABC psephologist Antony Green observed that due to the considerably expanded size of the crossbench following this election, the traditional two-column format of the Mackerras pendulum had become strained, and that the crossbench deserved more attention than its position at the bottom-right of the table suggested.[4]
Election analyst Ben Raue observed that the use of the two-party-preferred count in the Mackerras Pendulum also had the effect of classifying several seats as safer than they really were: for example, the seat of Macnamara ended up with a 12.25% margin of victory for the Labor candidate, but if just 0.64% of voters had changed their preference to rank the Greens higher than Labor, Labor would have finished third, with the Greens winning the seat by a similarly large margin.[5]
To overcome some of these limitations, the pollster Jim Reed produced a new Reed Pendulum after the 2022 election.[6] This uses a two-candidate-preferred margin to classify each seat instead of a notional two-party preference count for the major parties, and has three arms so that contests involving minor parties and independent candidates are more clearly identified. One or two swing figures can be used to calculate seat changes along the arms.
Change in composition
[edit]Seats changing classification
[edit]- Includes gains.
| Seat | Classification | Swing (to winner) | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 2022 | ||
| Aston (VIC) | Safe Liberal | Marginal Liberal | –7.32 |
| Banks (NSW) | Fairly safe Liberal | Marginal Liberal | –3.06 |
| Bendigo (VIC) | Fairly safe Labor | Safe Labor | +3.29 |
| Bennelong (NSW) | Fairly safe Liberal | Marginal Labor | +7.89 |
| Boothby (SA) | Marginal Liberal | Marginal Labor | +4.66 |
| Braddon (TAS) | Marginal Liberal | Fairly safe Liberal | +4.94 |
| Brisbane (QLD) | Marginal LNP | Marginal Greens | +53.73 |
| Calwell (VIC) | Very safe Labor | Safe Labor | –7.32 |
| Chisholm (VIC) | Marginal Liberal | Fairly safe Labor | +6.86 |
| Cooper (VIC) | Very safe Labor | Safe Labor | –6.16 |
| Corangamite (VIC) | Marginal Labor | Fairly Labor | +6.55 |
| Cowan (WA) | Marginal Labor | Safe Labor | +9.96 |
| Cowper (NSW) | Fairly safe National | Marginal National | –4.47 |
| Curtin (WA) | Safe Liberal | Marginal Independent | +51.20 |
| Bonner (QLD) | Fairly safe LNP | Marginal LNP | –4.00 |
| Bowman (QLD) | Safe LNP | Marginal LNP | –4.73 |
| Capricornia (QLD) | Safe LNP | Fairly safe LNP | –4.00 |
| Dunkley (VIC) | Marginal Labor | Fairly safe Labor | +3.52 |
| Eden-Monaro (NSW) | Marginal Labor | Fairly safe Labor | +7.35 |
| Fairfax (QLD) | Safe LNP | Fairly safe LNP | –4.00 |
| Fisher (QLD) | Safe LNP | Fairly safe LNP | –4.03 |
| Flinders (VIC) | Marginal Liberal | Fairly safe Liberal | +1.06 |
| Flynn (QLD) | Fairly safe LNP | Marginal LNP | –4.84 |
| Forde (QLD) | Fairly safe LNP | Marginal LNP | –4.37 |
| Fowler (NSW) | Safe Labor | Marginal Independent | +51.63 |
| Gippsland (VIC) | Safe National | Very safe National | +3.90 |
| Goldstein (VIC) | Fairly safe Liberal | Marginal Independent | +52.87 |
| Gorton (VIC) | Safe Labor | Fairly safe Labor | –7.32 |
| Greenway (NSW) | Marginal Labor | Safe Labor | +8.73 |
| Griffith (QLD) | Marginal Labor | Safe Greens | +60.46 |
| Groom (QLD) | Very safe LNP | Fairly safe LNP | –13.60 |
| Hasluck (WA) | Marginal Liberal | Fairly safe Labor | +11.89 |
| Herbert (QLD) | Fairly safe LNP | Safe LNP | +3.41 |
| Higgins (VIC) | Marginal Liberal | Marginal Labor | +4.67 |
| Indi (VIC) | Marginal Independent | Fairly safe Independent | +7.55 |
| Jagajaga (VIC) | Fairly safe Labor | Safe Labor | +6.46 |
| Kooyong (VIC) | Marginal Liberal | Marginal Independent | +52.94 |
| La Trobe (VIC) | Marginal Liberal | Fairly safe Liberal | +3.56 |
| Lilley (QLD) | Marginal Labor | Safe Labor | +9.90 |
| Lindsay (NSW) | Marginal Liberal | Fairly safe Liberal | +1.30 |
| Mackellar (NSW) | Safe Liberal | Marginal Independent | +52.50 |
| Macnamara (VIC) | Fairly safe Labor | Safe Labor | +7.34 |
| Macquarie (NSW) | Marginal Labor | Fairly safe Labor | +7.58 |
| Mallee (VIC) | Safe National | Very safe National | +3.31 |
| McPherson (QLD) | Safe LNP | Fairly safe LNP | –2.86 |
| Melbourne (VIC) | Very safe Greens | Safe Greens | –12.44 |
| Menzies (VIC) | Fairly safe Liberal | Marginal Liberal | –6.34 |
| Monash (VIC) | Fairly safe Liberal | Marginal Liberal | –3.96 |
| Moreton (QLD) | Marginal Labor | Fairly safe Labor | +7.19 |
| Nicholls (VIC) | Very safe National | Marginal National | –16.22 |
| North Sydney (NSW) | Safe Liberal | Marginal Independent | +52.92 |
| Oxley (QLD) | Fairly safe Labor | Safe Labor | +5.20 |
| Pearce (WA) | Marginal Liberal | Fairly safe Labor | +14.23 |
| Petrie (QLD) | Fairly safe LNP | Marginal LNP | –3.96 |
| Reid (NSW) | Marginal Liberal | Marginal Labor | +8.37 |
| Richmond (NSW) | Marginal Labor | Fairly safe Labor | +4.15 |
| Robertson (NSW) | Marginal Liberal | Marginal Labor | +6.50 |
| Ryan (QLD) | Fairly safe LNP | Marginal Greens | +52.65 |
| Scullin (VIC) | Very safe Labor | Safe Labor | –6.08 |
| Sturt (SA) | Fairly safe Liberal | Marginal Liberal | –6.42 |
| Swan (WA) | Marginal Liberal | Fairly safe Labor | +11.99 |
| Tangney (WA) | Fairly safe Liberal | Marginal Labor | +11.88 |
| Wannon (VIC) | Safe Liberal | Marginal Liberal | –6.24 |
| Wentworth (NSW) | Marginal Liberal | Marginal Independent | +54.19 |
Notes
[edit]- ^ Alan Tudge resigned from parliament in 2023 and the ensuing by-election was won by Labor candidate Mary Doyle
- ^ Broadbent resigned from the Liberal party after losing preselection in November 2023, and now sits as an independent
- ^ Andrew Gee resigned in 2022 to sit as an independent.
- ^ Stuart Robert resigned from parliament in 2023 and the ensuing by-election was won by LNP candidate Cameron Caldwell
References
[edit]- ^ "Seat summary". AEC Tally Room. Australian Electoral Commission. Retrieved 27 May 2022.
- ^ Division Classifications, Virtual Tally Room 2016, Australian Electoral Commission. Retrieved 21 August 2016.
- ^ Sakkal, Paul; Rooney, Kieran (14 November 2023). "Veteran Liberal Party MP Russell Broadbent quits party, moves to crossbench". The Sydney Morning Herald.
- ^ Antony Green (19 June 2022). "2022 Post-Federal Election Pendulum". Antony Green's Election Blog. Retrieved 29 June 2022.
- ^ Ben Raue (27 June 2022). "Understanding 3CP trends". The Tally Room. Retrieved 29 June 2022.
- ^ Jim Reed (13 June 2022). "2022 Post-Federal Election Reed Pendulum" (PDF). Resolve Strategic. Retrieved 8 July 2022.
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