Portal:Energy/Selected article/19

Climate Change 2007, the fourth report of the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) to evaluate the risks of global warming since 1990, is being published in sections throughout 2007. Prior to publishing, the report - which is the combined work of hundreds of experts - is reviewed by representatives from many of the world's governments.

Due to the accumulation of evidence, the report goes further than previous reports by stating that 'warming of the climate system is unequivocal'. It goes on to say that 'most of the observed increase in globally averaged temperatures since the mid-20th century is 'very likely' due to the observed increase in anthropogenic greenhouse gas concentrations'. Fossil fuel use is given as the primary source of the increase in atmospheric carbon dioxide, with the increase in methane being very likely caused by a combination of agricultural practices and fossil fuel use.

Based on an analysis of computer climate models, the report states that average surface temperatures will rise during this century, most likely between 1.1 to 4.3°C (5.2 to 11.5 °F), depending on the mitigation actions taken. Excluding the effects of ice sheet flow, they also predict a sea level rise of 18 to 26 cm (7 to 23 inches), more heat waves and more heavy rain. An increase in areas affected by droughts, in the intensity of tropical cyclones and in extreme high tides is also likely. The IPCC believe that stabilization of greenhouse gas concentrations is possible at a reasonable cost, with stabilization between 445 and 535 ppm costing less than 3% of global GDP. They do warn, however, that a 'large shift in the pattern of investment' is required.