Opinion polling for the 2022 Portuguese legislative election
In the run up to the 2022 Portuguese legislative election, various organisations carry out opinion polling to gauge voting intention in Portugal. Results of such polls are displayed in this article. The date range for these opinion polls are from the 2019 Portuguese legislative election, held on 6 October, to the day the next election was held on 30 January.
Nationwide polling
[edit]Graphical summary
[edit]
Polling
[edit]Poll results are listed in the table below in reverse chronological order, showing the most recent first. The highest percentage figure in each polling survey is displayed in bold, and the background shaded in the leading party's colour. In the instance that there is a tie, then no figure is shaded but both are displayed in bold. The lead column on the right shows the percentage-point difference between the two parties with the highest figures. Poll results use the date the survey's fieldwork was done, as opposed to the date of publication.
Exit poll
| Polling firm/Link | Fieldwork date | Sample size | Turnout | 
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O | Lead |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 legislative election | 30 Jan 2022 | — | 51.5 | 41.4 120 |
29.1 77 |
4.4 5 |
4.3 6 |
1.6 0 |
1.6 1 |
7.2 12 |
4.9 8 |
1.3 1 |
4.2 0 |
12.3 |
| UCP–CESOP | 30 Jan 2022 | 27,615 | 46–51 | 37–42 102/116 |
30–35 84/94 |
3–6 3/7 |
3–5 3/7 |
1–3 0/2 |
1–3 0/2 |
5–8 7/13 |
4–7 5/9 |
1–3 1/2 |
7 | |
| ICS/ISCTE–GFK/Metris | 30 Jan 2022 | 18,361 | 51–55 | 37.4– 41.4 106/118 |
26.9– 30.9 75/85 |
3.0– 6.0 4/10 |
3.0– 6.0 3/9 |
0.6– 2.6 1/3 |
0.5– 3.1 1/3 |
5.0– 8.0 8/14 |
4.7– 7.7 9/15 |
0.4– 2.4 1/2 |
3.5– 6.5 0 |
10.5 |
| Intercampus | 30 Jan 2022 | 23,848 | ? | 36.6– 42.6 108/120 |
26.7– 32.7 77/89 |
2.4– 6.4 4/10 |
2.5– 6.5 3/9 |
0.1– 3.6 0/3 |
0.2– 3.7 0/4 |
3.8– 7.8 6/12 |
3.5– 7.5 6/12 |
0.2– 2.6 0/2 |
9.9 | |
| Pitagórica | 30 Jan 2022 | 33,157 | 56–60 | 37.5– 42.5 100/117 |
26.7– 31.7 75/95 |
3.0– 7.0 4/8 |
2.5– 6.5 4/8 |
0.9– 2.9 1/2 |
0.8– 2.8 1/2 |
4.5– 8.5 6/13 |
4.5– 8.5 7/11 |
0.7– 3.7 0/1 |
10.8 | |
| Pitagórica[a] | 24–28 Jan 2022 | 760 | ? | 36.6 98/113 |
32.9 82/100 |
5.1 5/13 |
5.2 5/14 |
1.4 1/5 |
1.2 1/2 |
5.4 2/8 |
5.2 2/5 |
1.7 1/3 |
5.4 |
3.7 |
| Pitagórica[a] | 23–26 Jan 2022 | 608 | ? | 36.7 | 31.3 | 6.1 | 5.7 | 2.1 | 1.0 | 5.1 | 4.3 | 1.8 | 6.1 | 5.4 |
| CESOP–UCP | 19–26 Jan 2022 | 2,192 | ? | 36 95/105 |
33 89/99 |
6 6/13 |
5 4/10 |
2 0/2 |
2 1/2 |
6 7/9 |
6 5/10 |
2 1/2 |
2 0 |
3 |
| Pitagórica[a] | 22–25 Jan 2022 | 608 | ? | 36.6 | 30.9 | 6.7 | 4.2 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 6.7 | 3.8 | 1.6 | 6.7 | 5.7 |
| Pitagórica[a] | 21–24 Jan 2022 | 608 | ? | 36.7 | 31.4 | 5.7 | 4.3 | 1.4 | 1.8 | 7.5 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 6.9 | 5.3 |
| ICS/ISCTE | 18–24 Jan 2022 | 1,003 | ? | 35 92/106 |
33 87/101 |
5 4/10 |
6 6/12 |
1 0/1 |
2 1/3 |
6 6/12 |
6 7/13 |
1 1 |
5 0 |
2 |
| Pitagórica[a] | 20–23 Jan 2022 | 608 | ? | 35.3 | 31.4 | 6.1 | 4.9 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 6.9 | 4.7 | 0.8 | 6.5 | 3.9 |
| Pitagórica[a] | 19–22 Jan 2022 | 608 | ? | 34.1 | 33.5 | 5.5 | 5.1 | 0.8 | 1.6 | 6.6 | 5.3 | 1.2 | 6.2 | 0.6 |
| Pitagórica[a] | 18–21 Jan 2022 | 608 | ? | 33.5 | 34.5 | 5.7 | 4.7 | 0.8 | 1.6 | 6.5 | 5.7 | 1.2 | 5.9 | 1.0 |
| Aximage | 16–21 Jan 2022 | 965 | ? | 33.8 | 34.4 | 6.6 | 4.5 | 1.6 | 3.2 | 8.0 | 2.8 | 1.4 | 3.7 | 0.6 |
| Pitagórica[a] | 17–20 Jan 2022 | 608 | ? | 34.6 | 33.5 | 4.9 | 4.5 | 1.2 | 1.6 | 6.3 | 6.3 | 1.6 | 5.3 | 1.1 |
| Pitagórica[a] | 16–19 Jan 2022 | 608 | ? | 36.5 | 32.9 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 1.0 | 1.9 | 6.3 | 5.2 | 1.5 | 4.7 | 3.6 |
| Pitagórica[a] | 15–18 Jan 2022 | 608 | ? | 38.7 | 30.4 | 5.1 | 5.3 | 1.1 | 1.7 | 7.2 | 4.7 | 1.1 | 4.7 | 8.3 |
| CESOP–UCP | 12–18 Jan 2022 | 1,456 | ? | 37 99/110 |
33 89/100 |
5 5/8 |
5 5/9 |
2 0/2 |
2 1/2 |
6 7/9 |
5 4/6 |
2 1/2 |
3 | 4 |
| Metris[b] | 11–18 Jan 2022 | 812 | ? | 39.2 | 32.6 | 5.0 | 5.4 | 1.0 | 1.1 | 6.8 | 4.4 | 0.6 | 3.9 | 6.6 |
| Pitagórica[a] | 14–17 Jan 2022 | 608 | ? | 39.8 | 30.4 | 4.5 | 5.8 | 1.3 | 1.7 | 7.5 | 4.3 | 1.5 | 3.2 | 9.4 |
| Pitagórica[a] | 13–16 Jan 2022 | 608 | ? | 40.1 | 28.8 | 5.9 | 5.9 | 0.6 | 1.5 | 8.0 | 5.0 | 1.3 | 2.9 | 11.3 |
| Pitagórica[a] | 12–15 Jan 2022 | 608 | ? | 39.6 | 29.6 | 6.0 | 5.1 | 0.9 | 1.7 | 8.1 | 4.7 | 1.5 | 2.8 | 10.0 |
| Pitagórica[a] | 11–14 Jan 2022 | 608 | ? | 38.8 | 29.3 | 6.8 | 4.6 | 1.3 | 1.9 | 7.8 | 4.9 | 1.5 | 3.1 | 9.5 |
| Pitagórica[a] | 10–13 Jan 2022 | 608 | ? | 38.9 | 29.7 | 6.2 | 4.6 | 1.7 | 2.1 | 6.9 | 5.4 | 1.2 | 3.3 | 9.2 |
| Aximage | 6–12 Jan 2022 | 807 | ? | 38.1 | 28.5 | 7.4 | 4.8 | 1.8 | 2.1 | 9.0 | 3.7 | – | 4.6 | 9.6 |
| CESOP–UCP | 6–10 Jan 2022 | 1,246 | ? | 39 104/113 |
30 81/89 |
6 8/12 |
5 4/10 |
2 0/2 |
3 2/4 |
6 6/12 |
4 3/7 |
2 1 |
3 | 9 |
| Intercampus[c] | 4–10 Jan 2022 | 615 | ? | 35.3 | 29.3 | 8.5 | 6.0 | 1.1 | 4.3 | 7.1 | 5.6 | 0.6 | 2.2 | 6.0 |
| Pitagórica | 30 Dec 2021–9 Jan 2022 | 600 | ? | 39.6 | 30.0 | 6.4 | 5.1 | 1.5 | 1.8 | 5.7 | 5.1 | – | 4.8 | 9.6 |
| CESOP–UCP | 28 Dec 2021–5 Jan 2022 | 1,238 | ? | 38 | 32 | 6 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 6 |
| ICS/ISCTE | 10–20 Dec 2021 | 901 | ? | 38 | 31 | 5 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 4 | – | 5 | 7 |
| Intercampus[d] | 7–14 Dec 2021 | 603 | ? | 35.5 | 26.8 | 6.6 | 4.5 | 1.6 | 3.5 | 8.9 | 6.4 | 0.8 | 5.3 | 8.7 |
| Aximage | 9–13 Dec 2021 | 810 | 55.1 | 35.4 | 33.2 | 7.3 | 5.1 | 1.3 | 2.5 | 6.2 | 3.7 | – | 5.3 | 2.2 |
| Pitagórica | 7–12 Dec 2021 | 625 | ? | 37.0 | 31.7 | 4.9 | 5.9 | 1.0 | 3.0 | 6.3 | 5.9 | – | 4.3 | 5.3 |
| Pitagórica | 10–15 Nov 2021 | 625 | ? | 38.2 | 32.1 | 5.4 | 5.2 | 0.8 | 1.9 | 7.1 | 4.2 | – | 5.1 | 6.1 |
| Intercampus | 5–11 Nov 2021 | 612 | ? | 39.0 | 28.1 | 7.7 | 5.3 | 2.0 | 4.4 | 6.3 | 4.2 | 0.2 | 2.8 | 10.9 |
| CESOP–UCP | 29 Oct–4 Nov 2021 | 878 | ? | 39 | 30 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 5 | – | 4 | 9 |
| ICS/ISCTE | 21 Oct–1 Nov 2021 | 800 | ? | 40 | 26 | 5 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 2 | – | 8 | 14 |
| Aximage | 28–31 Oct 2021 | 803 | ? | 38.5 | 24.4 | 8.8 | 4.6 | 2.0 | 2.8 | 7.7 | 4.7 | – | 6.4 | 14.1 |
| Eurosondagem | 18–21 Oct 2021 | 1,028 | ? | 38.1 | 27.5 | 5.1 | 5.6 | 2.5 | 2.8 | 9.2 | 5.5 | – | 3.7 | 10.6 |
| 2021 local elections | 26 Sep 2021 | — | 53.6 | 37.1 (105) |
32.1 (93) |
2.9 (4) |
8.2 (19) |
1.9 (1) |
1.1 (1) |
4.2 (5) |
1.3 (1) |
0.5 (1) |
10.7 (0) |
5.0 |
| Eurosondagem | 20–23 Sep 2021 | 1,032 | ? | 41.5 | 27.2 | 5.0 | 5.5 | 2.0 | 2.6 | 8.9 | 5.2 | – | 2.1 | 14.3 |
| Intercampus | 14–23 Sep 2021 | 609 | ? | 36.8 | 24.6 | 9.7 | 5.5 | 1.4 | 3.3 | 8.6 | 5.5 | 0.4 | 4.2 | 12.2 |
| Pitagórica | 10–19 Sep 2021 | 609 | ? | 41.3 | 25.1 | 7.1 | 5.5 | 2.0 | 1.8 | 7.1 | 4.7 | 0.4 | 5.0 | 16.2 |
| Intercampus | 13–20 Aug 2021 | 612 | ? | 34.7 | 25.1 | 9.1 | 5.4 | 1.6 | 3.5 | 7.5 | 6.1 | 0.2 | 6.8 | 9.6 |
| Eurosondagem | 16–19 Aug 2021 | 1,052 | ? | 41.3 | 27.3 | 5.6 | 6.0 | 2.1 | 2.5 | 9.0 | 4.5 | – | 1.7 | 14.0 |
| Eurosondagem | 26–29 Jul 2021 | 1,025 | ? | 41.1 | 27.3 | 4.8 | 5.9 | 2.1 | 2.2 | 8.8 | 3.3 | – | 4.5 | 13.8 |
| Intercampus | 7–16 Jul 2021 | 607 | ? | 34.8 | 23.4 | 9.0 | 6.7 | 2.8 | 4.5 | 9.0 | 3.1 | 0.6 | 6.1 | 11.4 |
| Aximage | 10–12 Jul 2021 | 763 | ? | 37.6 | 25.2 | 7.8 | 4.8 | 0.9 | 4.6 | 7.7 | 5.5 | – | 5.9 | 12.4 |
| Eurosondagem | 5–8 Jul 2021 | 1,022 | ? | 40.8 | 27.3 | 5.2 | 5.2 | 2.2 | 2.1 | 9.0 | 2.5 | – | 5.7 | 13.5 |
| Intercampus | 8–16 Jun 2021 | 608 | ? | 34.6 | 22.4 | 8.9 | 6.0 | 3.1 | 5.2 | 10.1 | 6.4 | 0.6 | 2.7 | 12.2 |
| Eurosondagem | 31 May–3 Jun 2021 | 1,021 | ? | 40.0 | 27.2 | 5.5 | 5.0 | 2.5 | 2.2 | 8.4 | 2.7 | – | 6.5 | 12.8 |
| Aximage | 26–30 May 2021 | 796 | ? | 38.9 | 24.0 | 8.0 | 5.7 | 1.4 | 3.7 | 7.0 | 5.2 | 0.3 | 5.8 | 14.9 |
| Domp[e] | 9 Apr–19 May 2021 | 1,156 | ? | 35.1 | 21.7 | 8.6 | 4.4 | 2.4 | 5.3 | 10.8 | 3.6 | 0.6 | 7.6 | 13.4 |
| Eurosondagem | 10–13 May 2021 | 1,008 | ? | 39.4 | 27.4 | 6.6 | 5.0 | 2.5 | 2.4 | 8.0 | 2.2 | – | 6.5 | 12.0 |
| Intercampus | 5–11 May 2021 | 611 | ? | 37.9 | 21.7 | 8.3 | 5.5 | 2.9 | 4.8 | 8.3 | 4.2 | 1.3 | 5.1 | 16.2 |
| CESOP–UCP | 3–7 May 2021 | 1,123 | ? | 38 | 28 | 8 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 5 | – | 4 | 10 |
| Aximage | 22–25 Apr 2021 | 830 | 58.8 | 38.2 | 26.1 | 9.2 | 5.7 | 0.4 | 2.7 | 7.2 | 4.9 | 0.8 | 4.8 | 12.1 |
| Intercampus | 7–13 Apr 2021 | 609 | ? | 36.2 | 23.3 | 9.4 | 5.2 | 3.1 | 4.8 | 9.4 | 5.0 | 0.4 | 3.2 | 12.9 |
| ICS/ISCTE | 5–13 Apr 2021 | 802 | ? | 37 | 29 | 9 | 7 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 1 | – | 8 | 8 |
| Eurosondagem | 5–8 Apr 2021 | 1,020 | ? | 39.6 | 27.8 | 6.2 | 5.2 | 2.0 | 2.1 | 7.7 | 2.5 | – | 6.9 | 11.8 |
| Aximage | 24–27 Mar 2021 | 830 | 61.0 | 39.7 | 23.6 | 8.6 | 6.0 | 1.1 | 3.2 | 8.5 | 4.8 | 0.8 | 3.6 | 16.1 |
| Intercampus | 4–10 Mar 2021 | 615 | ? | 37.6 | 23.6 | 8.3 | 5.5 | 2.3 | 2.5 | 9.0 | 5.3 | 0.7 | 5.2 | 14.0 |
| Eurosondagem | 1–4 Mar 2021 | 1,010 | ? | 39.5 | 28.2 | 7.0 | 4.5 | 2.2 | 2.5 | 7.5 | 2.1 | – | 6.5 | 11.3 |
| Aximage | 17–20 Feb 2021 | 822 | 57.4 | 37.6 | 26.5 | 7.7 | 5.8 | 0.8 | 4.0 | 6.5 | 5.7 | 1.3 | 4.1 | 11.1 |
| Intercampus | 8–13 Feb 2021 | 609 | ? | 37.6 | 24.7 | 8.2 | 5.8 | 2.7 | 3.1 | 7.3 | 5.6 | 0.7 | 4.3 | 12.9 |
| Eurosondagem | 8–11 Feb 2021 | 1,022 | ? | 39.3 | 27.2 | 6.9 | 4.8 | 2.5 | 2.0 | 7.3 | 3.0 | – | 7.0 | 12.1 |
| CESOP–UCP | 24 Jan 2021 | 4,637 | ? | 35 | 23 | 8 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 9 | 7 | 1 | 7 | 12 |
| Pitagórica | 7–18 Jan 2021 | 629 | ? | 42.6 | 25.7 | 5.4 | 5.4 | 1.6 | 2.3 | 6.8 | 5.0 | – | 5.4 | 16.9 |
| Aximage | 9–15 Jan 2021 | 1,183 | 53.7 | 39.9 | 26.6 | 7.2 | 5.0 | 0.8 | 3.5 | 7.5 | 3.5 | 0.6 | 5.5 | 13.3 |
| CESOP–UCP | 11–14 Jan 2021 | 2,001 | ? | 39 | 28 | 7 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 8 | 5 | – | 3 | 11 |
| Eurosondagem | 11–14 Jan 2021 | 1,021 | ? | 39.0 | 28.0 | 6.5 | 5.3 | 2.1 | 2.2 | 5.5 | 1.3 | – | 10.1 | 11.0 |
| Pitagórica | 29 Dec 2020–10 Jan 2021 | 629 | ? | 41.4 | 28.0 | 7.1 | 5.1 | 1.2 | 2.2 | 5.9 | 4.1 | – | 5.1 | 13.4 |
| Intercampus | 4–7 Jan 2021 | 603 | ? | 38.0 | 24.1 | 9.1 | 5.7 | 2.3 | 3.6 | 9.1 | 3.8 | 0.2 | 4.1 | 13.9 |
| Pitagórica | 22 Dec 2020–3 Jan 2021 | 629 | ? | 40.9 | 26.3 | 7.3 | 4.1 | 1.4 | 1.8 | 8.4 | 2.8 | 0.2 | 6.9 | 14.6 |
| Pitagórica | 17–27 Dec 2020 | 629 | ? | 39.7 | 27.9 | 5.6 | 4.1 | 2.3 | 1.7 | 9.1 | 3.3 | – | 6.2 | 11.8 |
| Aximage | 19–22 Dec 2020 | 812 | 55.0 | 38.5 | 25.4 | 8.5 | 5.7 | 0.3 | 4.7 | 7.7 | 3.5 | 0.5 | 5.2 | 13.1 |
| Pitagórica | 17–20 Dec 2020 | 629 | ? | 40.3 | 28.5 | 5.5 | 5.3 | 1.8 | 2.2 | 8.4 | 2.4 | – | 5.5 | 11.8 |
| Intercampus | 14–18 Dec 2020 | 603 | ? | 38.0 | 23.6 | 7.3 | 5.4 | 3.2 | 3.4 | 7.7 | 4.5 | 0.9 | 6.0 | 14.4 |
| Pitagórica | 10–13 Dec 2020 | 629 | ? | 41.9 | 26.0 | 6.7 | 5.4 | 1.9 | 2.3 | 8.3 | 1.5 | – | 6.0 | 15.9 |
| CESOP–UCP | 4–11 Dec 2020 | 1,315 | ? | 37 | 30 | 7 | 7 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 5 | – | 2 | 7 |
| Eurosondagem | 7–10 Dec 2020 | 1,020 | ? | 38.8 | 29.4 | 7.2 | 5.3 | 2.5 | 2.0 | 5.2 | 1.1 | – | 8.5 | 9.4 |
| Aximage | 23–26 Nov 2020 | 647 | 58.4 | 37.2 | 23.9 | 7.9 | 5.8 | 1.0 | 6.5 | 7.5 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 7.4 | 13.3 |
| ICS/ISCTE | 11–25 Nov 2020 | 802 | ? | 39 | 25 | 8 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 1 | – | 9 | 14 |
| Intercampus | 9–16 Nov 2020 | 622 | ? | 37.1 | 24.2 | 7.7 | 4.9 | 4.1 | 5.3 | 7.3 | 3.3 | 1.8 | 4.4 | 12.9 |
| Eurosondagem | 2–5 Nov 2020 | 1,011 | ? | 38.3 | 29.7 | 8.3 | 5.8 | 2.7 | 2.2 | 5.0 | 1.0 | – | 7.0 | 8.6 |
| Aximage | 22–26 Oct 2020 | 694 | 59.1 | 35.5 | 27.0 | 10.0 | 5.7 | 1.2 | 5.2 | 5.4 | 3.2 | 0.4 | 6.4 | 8.5 |
| Intercampus | 6–11 Oct 2020 | 618 | ? | 37.5 | 24.8 | 11.0 | 4.3 | 4.1 | 4.1 | 7.7 | 2.4 | 0.4 | 3.7 | 12.7 |
| Eurosondagem | 5–8 Oct 2020 | 1,010 | ? | 38.8 | 29.0 | 8.1 | 5.5 | 3.3 | 2.0 | 4.8 | 1.3 | – | 7.2 | 9.8 |
| ICS/ISCTE | 14–24 Sep 2020 | 801 | ? | 37 | 27 | 8 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 7 | 2 | – | 6 | 10 |
| Aximage | 12–15 Sep 2020 | 603 | 55.1 | 37.6 | 23.9 | 8.3 | 5.6 | 1.1 | 4.8 | 6.8 | 2.6 | 1.2 | 8.1 | 13.7 |
| Eurosondagem | 7–10 Sep 2020 | 1,022 | ? | 38.5 | 28.2 | 8.3 | 5.8 | 2.5 | 3.3 | 4.5 | 1.0 | – | 7.9 | 10.3 |
| Intercampus | 4–9 Sep 2020 | 614 | ? | 37.4 | 24.3 | 9.9 | 5.1 | 4.3 | 4.1 | 7.4 | 2.1 | 0.4 | 5.0 | 13.1 |
| Intercampus | 6–11 Aug 2020 | 601 | ? | 39.6 | 24.8 | 8.5 | 6.1 | 4.4 | 3.2 | 7.9 | 2.8 | 0.0 | 2.7 | 14.8 |
| CESOP–UCP | 13–18 Jul 2020 | 1,482 | ? | 39 | 26 | 7 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 7 | 3 | – | 6 | 13 |
| Intercampus | 8–13 Jul 2020 | 620 | ? | 39.0 | 23.9 | 10.4 | 6.2 | 4.8 | 3.0 | 6.2 | 2.8 | 0.4 | 3.2 | 15.1 |
| Aximage | 5–8 Jul 2020 | 624 | 55.9 | 40.4 | 26.7 | 8.5 | 6.0 | 2.1 | 2.6 | 5.2 | 2.1 | 0.1 | 6.3 | 13.7 |
| Eurosondagem | 29 Jun–2 Jul 2020 | 1,025 | ? | 38.4 | 29.3 | 8.4 | 6.0 | 2.2 | 2.8 | 4.4 | 1.1 | – | 7.4 | 9.1 |
| Intercampus | 9–13 Jun 2020 | 610 | ? | 40.0 | 24.1 | 9.8 | 6.2 | 4.1 | 3.1 | 6.8 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 3.2 | 15.9 |
| Aximage | 5–8 Jun 2020 | 605 | 59.2 | 39.9 | 25.8 | 8.0 | 4.9 | 1.2 | 4.3 | 5.3 | 1.4 | 0.2 | 9.0 | 14.1 |
| Eurosondagem | 1–4 Jun 2020 | 1,021 | ? | 38.0 | 29.3 | 8.0 | 5.3 | 2.7 | 3.0 | 4.1 | 1.1 | – | 8.5 | 8.7 |
| Pitagórica | 16–24 May 2020 | 802 | ? | 44.8 | 24.1 | 6.1 | 5.8 | 2.8 | 3.3 | 6.4 | 1.6 | – | 5.1 | 20.7 |
| Eurosondagem | 17–20 May 2020 | 2,120 | ? | 37.9 | 30.0 | 8.1 | 5.2 | 3.2 | 2.2 | 4.3 | 1.2 | – | 7.9 | 7.9 |
| Intercampus | 5–9 May 2020 | 620 | ? | 40.3 | 23.3 | 9.0 | 5.9 | 3.6 | 3.6 | 6.8 | 3.2 | 0.7 | 3.6 | 17.0 |
| Eurosondagem | 4–7 May 2020 | 1,005 | ? | 37.7 | 29.4 | 8.3 | 5.5 | 3.0 | 2.5 | 4.0 | 1.2 | – | 8.4 | 8.3 |
| Pitagórica | 15–26 Apr 2020 | 605 | ? | 41.9 | 23.1 | 8.1 | 5.6 | 2.6 | 2.6 | 7.3 | 2.6 | – | 6.2 | 18.8 |
| Intercampus | 9–14 Apr 2020 | 623 | ? | 35.4 | 23.3 | 11.9 | 5.8 | 3.9 | 4.9 | 7.8 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 3.9 | 12.1 |
| Eurosondagem | 29 Mar–2 Apr 2020 | 1,008 | ? | 37.5 | 27.2 | 9.0 | 6.0 | 2.8 | 2.4 | 3.6 | 1.2 | – | 10.3 | 10.3 |
| Pitagórica | 13–21 Mar 2020 | 605 | ? | 41.7 | 25.2 | 8.6 | 5.4 | 2.9 | 3.1 | 8.1 | 2.0 | – | 3.1 | 16.5 |
| Intercampus | 13–19 Mar 2020 | 611 | ? | 31.4 | 21.9 | 14.5 | 6.1 | 3.6 | 5.9 | 8.6 | 2.3 | 0.2 | 5.5 | 9.5 |
| Eurosondagem | 1–5 Mar 2020 | 1,011 | ? | 37.3 | 27.4 | 8.8 | 6.3 | 2.9 | 2.8 | 3.3 | 1.1 | – | 10.1 | 9.9 |
| Aximage | 14–18 Feb 2020 | 839 | 56.1 | 35.1 | 26.1 | 7.7 | 5.4 | 2.1 | 4.1 | 4.3 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 12.0 | 9.0 |
| Intercampus | 11–17 Feb 2020 | 614 | ? | 31.1 | 23.8 | 13.2 | 6.3 | 3.5 | 5.4 | 6.9 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 6.1 | 7.3 |
| Eurosondagem | 2–6 Feb 2020 | 1,020 | ? | 37.4 | 26.7 | 9.0 | 6.5 | 3.3 | 3.1 | 2.5 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 9.9 | 10.7 |
| ICS/ISCTE | 22 Jan–5 Feb 2020 | 800 | ? | 33 | 28 | 9 | 8 | 4 | 3 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 5 |
| Intercampus | 19–24 Jan 2020 | 619 | ? | 32.8 | 25.8 | 11.9 | 6.2 | 1.9 | 6.0 | 6.2 | 2.3 | 1.7 | 5.2 | 7.0 |
| Eurosondagem | 5–9 Jan 2020 | 1,010 | ? | 37.2 | 26.5 | 9.6 | 6.6 | 3.5 | 3.6 | 2.2 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 8.9 | 10.7 |
| Intercampus | 12–17 Dec 2019 | 606 | ? | 33.9 | 25.7 | 10.7 | 6.3 | 3.9 | 6.1 | 5.7 | 2.4 | 1.1 | 4.2 | 8.2 |
| Eurosondagem | 8–12 Dec 2019 | 1,019 | ? | 37.1 | 26.9 | 9.5 | 7.1 | 3.6 | 3.5 | 1.9 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 8.7 | 10.2 |
| Intercampus | 20–26 Nov 2019 | 604 | ? | 34.9 | 24.9 | 10.8 | 8.1 | 2.9 | 4.8 | 4.8 | 2.9 | 2.7 | 3.2 | 10.0 |
| Eurosondagem | 17–21 Nov 2019 | 1,011 | ? | 36.9 | 27.1 | 10.1 | 6.9 | 4.0 | 3.3 | – | – | – | 11.7 | 9.8 |
| Aximage | 8–11 Nov 2019 | 639 | ? | 37.4 | 27.1 | 10.4 | 6.2 | 4.0 | 3.2 | 3.0 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 6.5 | 10.3 |
| Intercampus | 22–28 Oct 2019 | 604 | ? | 35.6 | 24.8 | 10.7 | 6.9 | 4.4 | 5.3 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 2.7 | 6.3 | 10.8 |
| 2019 legislative election | 6 Oct 2019 | — | 48.6 | 36.3 108 |
27.8 79 |
9.5 19 |
6.3 12 |
4.2 5 |
3.3 4 |
1.3 1 |
1.3 1 |
1.1 1 |
8.8 0 |
8.5 |
Hypothetical scenarios
[edit]Hypothetical polling
Paulo Rangel as PSD leader
| Polling firm/Link | Fieldwork date | Sample size | Turnout |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
O | Lead |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pitagórica | 10–15 Nov 2021 | 625 | ? | 39.6 | 23.9 | 5.7 | 5.5 | 2.4 | 2.0 | 8.4 | 5.1 | – | 7.4 | 15.7 |
Constituency polling
[edit]Madeira
[edit]| Polling firm/Link | Fieldwork date | Sample size | Turnout | 
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
O | Lead | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 legislative election | 30 Jan 2022 | — | 50.3 | 39.8 3 |
31.5 3 |
6.9 0 |
3.2 0 |
2.0 0 |
1.6 0 |
3.3 0 |
6.1 0 |
5.6 0 |
8.3 | |
| Intercampus | 21–25 Jan 2022 | 603 | ? | 47.7 4 |
33.3 2 |
2.9 0 |
3.6 0 |
– | – | 2.3 0 |
– | 10.2 0 |
14.4 | |
| 2019 legislative election | 6 Oct 2019 | — | 50.3 | 37.2 3 |
6.1 0 |
33.4 3 |
5.5 0 |
5.2 0 |
2.1 0 |
1.8 0 |
0.7 0 |
0.7 0 |
7.3 0 |
3.8 |
Leadership polls
[edit]Preferred prime minister
[edit]Poll results showing public opinion on who would make the best prime minister are shown in the table below in reverse chronological order, showing the most recent first.
António Costa vs Rui Rio
[edit]| Polling firm/Link | Fieldwork date | 
|
|
N | Both/ O |
NO | Lead |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CESOP–UCP | 19–26 Jan 2022 | 48 | 36 | – | – | 14 | 12 |
| CESOP–UCP | 12–18 Jan 2022 | 50 | 35 | – | – | 15 | 15 |
| CESOP–UCP | 6–10 Jan 2022 | 49 | 35 | – | – | 16 | 14 |
| CESOP–UCP | 28 Dec 2021–5 Jan 2022 | 52 | 33 | – | – | 15 | 19 |
| Aximage | 9–13 Dec 2021 | 46 | 21 | 19 | 5 | 9 | 25 |
| Aximage | 28–31 Oct 2021 | 44.1 | 18.6 | 29.4 | 1.4 | 6.5 | 25.5 |
| Aximage | 10–12 Jul 2021 | 45 | 22 | 28 | 1 | 4 | 23 |
| Aximage | 26–30 May 2021 | 52 | 15 | 24 | 2 | 7 | 37 |
| Aximage | 22–25 Apr 2021 | 55 | 17 | 20 | 2 | 6 | 38 |
| Aximage | 24–27 Mar 2021 | 54 | 18 | 18 | 4 | 6 | 36 |
| Aximage | 17–20 Feb 2021 | 54 | 20 | 19 | 3 | 4 | 34 |
| Aximage | 19–22 Dec 2020 | 53 | 19 | 22 | 2 | 4 | 34 |
| Aximage | 23–26 Nov 2020 | 50 | 18 | 22 | 4 | 7 | 32 |
| Aximage | 22–26 Oct 2020 | 47 | 17 | 23 | 4 | 9 | 30 |
| Aximage | 12–15 Sep 2020 | 48 | 17 | 25 | 4 | 6 | 31 |
| Aximage | 5–8 Jul 2020 | 55 | 17 | 19 | 5 | 5 | 38 |
| Aximage | 5–8 Jun 2020 | 57.3 | 18.2 | 17.3 | 3.2 | 4.0 | 39.1 |
| Aximage | 7–10 Mar 2020 | 41.1 | 21.3 | 30.8 | 1.9 | 4.9 | 19.8 |
| Aximage | 14–18 Feb 2020 | 43.8 | 21.8 | 24.7 | 3.9 | 5.8 | 22.0 |
| Aximage | 9–12 Jan 2020 | 43.6 | 19.5 | 27.5 | 2.8 | 6.6 | 24.1 |
Cabinet approval/disapproval ratings
[edit]Graphical summary
[edit] | Graphs are unavailable due to technical issues. There is more info on Phabricator and on MediaWiki.org. |
Polling
[edit]Poll results showing public opinion on the performance of the Government are shown in the table below in reverse chronological order, showing the most recent first.
| Polling firm/Link | Fieldwork date | Sample size | António Costa's cabinet | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Approve | Disapprove | Neither | No opinion | Net | |||
| ICS/ISCTE | 10–20 Dec 2021 | 901 | 52 | 39 | — | 9 | 13 |
| ICS/ISCTE | 21 Oct–1 Nov 2021 | 800 | 44 | 48 | — | 8 | 4 |
| Aximage | 28–31 Oct 2021 | 803 | 34 | 45 | 18 | 3 | 11 |
| Eurosondagem | 20–23 Sep 2021 | 1,032 | 32.7 | 27.9 | — | 39.4 | 4.8 |
| Intercampus | 14–23 Sep 2021 | 609 | 42.7 | 28.5 | 27.4 | 1.3 | 14.2 |
| Intercampus | 13–20 Aug 2021 | 612 | 36.1 | 29.9 | 32.2 | 1.8 | 3.9 |
| Eurosondagem | 16–19 Aug 2021 | 1,052 | 30.1 | 25.5 | — | 44.4 | 4.6 |
| Eurosondagem | 26–29 Jul 2021 | 1,025 | 25.5 | 38.6 | — | 35.9 | 13.1 |
| CESOP–UCP | 9–15 Jul 2021 | 1,202 | 16 | 29 | 52 | 3 | 23 |
| Aximage | 10–12 Jul 2021 | 763 | 37 | 33 | 28 | 2 | 4 |
| Eurosondagem | 5–8 Jul 2021 | 1,022 | 48.0 | 47.0 | — | 5.0 | 1.0 |
| Aximage | 26–30 May 2021 | 796 | 44 | 29 | 22 | 5 | 15 |
| Eurosondagem | 10–13 May 2021 | 1,008 | 36.0 | 22.0 | — | 42.0 | 12.0 |
| Intercampus | 5–11 May 2021 | 611 | 43.6 | 28.5 | 26.2 | 1.6 | 15.1 |
| Aximage | 22–25 Apr 2021 | 830 | 55 | 22 | 22 | 1 | 33 |
| Intercampus | 7–13 Apr 2021 | 609 | 44.3 | 29.1 | 25.1 | 1.5 | 15.2 |
| ICS/ISCTE | 5–13 Apr 2021 | 802 | 55 | 38 | — | 7 | 17 |
| Eurosondagem | 5–8 Apr 2021 | 1,020 | 27.3 | 17.7 | — | 55.0 | 9.6 |
| Aximage | 24–27 Mar 2021 | 830 | 55 | 24 | 19 | 2 | 31 |
| Intercampus | 4–10 Mar 2021 | 615 | 42.6 | 23.2 | 32.2 | 2.0 | 10.4 |
| Eurosondagem | 1–4 Mar 2021 | 1,010 | 21.0 | 16.2 | — | 62.8 | 4.8 |
| Aximage | 17–20 Feb 2021 | 822 | 50 | 33 | 15 | 2 | 17 |
| Intercampus | 8–13 Feb 2021 | 609 | 38.8 | 32.9 | 26.1 | 2.3 | 5.9 |
| Eurosondagem | 7–11 Feb 2021 | 1,022 | 21.0 | 9.9 | — | 69.1 | 11.1 |
| Eurosondagem | 11–14 Jan 2021 | 1,021 | 42.0 | 28.7 | — | 29.3 | 13.3 |
| Intercampus | 4–7 Jan 2021 | 603 | 49.6 | 22.4 | 26.7 | 1.3 | 22.9 |
| Aximage | 19–22 Dec 2020 | 812 | 47 | 31 | 19 | 3 | 16 |
| Intercampus | 14–18 Dec 2020 | 603 | 44.2 | 28.9 | 24.7 | 2.2 | 15.3 |
| Eurosondagem | 7–10 Dec 2020 | 1,020 | 42.0 | 29.9 | — | 28.1 | 12.1 |
| Aximage | 23–26 Nov 2020 | 647 | 51 | 33 | 12 | 4 | 18 |
| ICS/ISCTE | 11–25 Nov 2020 | 802 | 51 | 42 | — | 7 | 9 |
| Intercampus | 9–16 Nov 2020 | 622 | 45.5 | 29.1 | 24.8 | 0.6 | 16.4 |
| Eurosondagem | 2–5 Nov 2020 | 1,011 | 41.8 | 28.2 | — | 30.0 | 13.6 |
| Aximage | 22–26 Oct 2020 | 694 | 45 | 30 | 19 | 6 | 15 |
| Intercampus | 6–11 Oct 2020 | 618 | 47.3 | 23.7 | 27.9 | 1.1 | 19.4 |
| Eurosondagem | 5–8 Oct 2020 | 1,010 | 39.6 | 25.2 | — | 35.2 | 14.4 |
| ICS/ISCTE | 14–24 Sep 2020 | 801 | 49 | 43 | — | 8 | 6 |
| Aximage | 12–15 Sep 2020 | 603 | 48 | 35 | 14 | 4 | 13 |
| Eurosondagem | 7–10 Sep 2020 | 1,022 | 40.0 | 25.0 | — | 35.0 | 15.0 |
| Intercampus | 4–9 Sep 2020 | 614 | 50.4 | 21.0 | 26.5 | 2.1 | 23.9 |
| Intercampus | 6–11 Aug 2020 | 601 | 48.6 | 20.8 | 28.3 | 2.3 | 20.3 |
| CESOP–UCP | 13–18 Jul 2020 | 1,482 | 73 | 21 | — | 6 | 52 |
| Intercampus | 9–13 Jul 2020 | 620 | 49.3 | 17.8 | 30.8 | 2.1 | 18.5 |
| Aximage | 5–8 Jul 2020 | 624 | 57 | 26 | 13 | 4 | 31 |
| Eurosondagem | 29 Jun–2 Jul 2020 | 1,025 | 41.0 | 24.5 | — | 34.5 | 16.5 |
| Intercampus | 9–13 Jun 2020 | 610 | 59.5 | 15.4 | 24.1 | 1.0 | 35.4 |
| Eurosondagem | 1–4 Jun 2020 | 1,021 | 42.5 | 25.0 | — | 32.5 | 17.5 |
| Pitagórica | 16–24 May 2020 | 802 | 53 | 10 | 37 | 0 | 16 |
| Intercampus | 6–9 May 2020 | 620 | 62.9 | 11.5 | 23.7 | 1.9 | 39.2 |
| Eurosondagem | 4–7 May 2020 | 1,005 | 43.3 | 25.2 | — | 31.5 | 18.1 |
| Pitagórica | 15–26 Apr 2020 | 605 | 48 | 11 | 41 | 0 | 7 |
| Intercampus | 9–14 Apr 2020 | 623 | 67.4 | 10.7 | 20.1 | 1.8 | 47.3 |
| Eurosondagem | 29 Mar–2 Apr 2020 | 1,008 | 44.2 | 27.2 | — | 28.6 | 17.0 |
| Pitagórica | 13–21 Mar 2020 | 605 | 33 | 20 | 47 | 0 | 14 |
| Intercampus | 13–19 Mar 2020 | 611 | 47.9 | 25.2 | 25.7 | 2.1 | 22.2 |
| Eurosondagem | 1–5 Mar 2020 | 1,011 | 42.5 | 26.9 | — | 30.6 | 15.6 |
| Intercampus | 11–17 Feb 2020 | 614 | 31.6 | 33.4 | 32.9 | 2.1 | 0.5 |
| Eurosondagem | 2–6 Feb 2020 | 1,020 | 43.3 | 26.9 | — | 30.0 | 16.4 |
| ICS/ISCTE | 22 Jan–5 Feb 2020 | 800 | 57 | 34 | — | 9 | 23 |
| Intercampus | 19–24 Jan 2020 | 619 | 35.1 | 31.6 | 31.3 | 1.9 | 3.5 |
| Eurosondagem | 5–9 Jan 2020 | 1,010 | 42.9 | 26.8 | — | 30.3 | 16.1 |
| Intercampus | 12–17 Dec 2019 | 606 | 33.7 | 34.5 | 28.7 | 3.1 | 0.8 |
| Eurosondagem | 8–12 Dec 2019 | 1,019 | 43.4 | 26.6 | — | 30.0 | 16.8 |
| Intercampus | 20–26 Nov 2019 | 604 | 34.3 | 30.3 | 31.0 | 4.5 | 3.3 |
| Eurosondagem | 17–21 Nov 2019 | 1,011 | 43.7 | 26.8 | — | 29.5 | 16.9 |
| Intercampus | 22–28 Oct 2019 | 604 | 36.7 | 28.1 | 31.6 | 3.5 | 5.1 |
Notes
[edit]- ^ a b c d e f g h i j k l m n o Tracking Poll
- ^ Results presented here exclude undecideds/refuse to answer or vote (24.1%). With their inclusion results are: PS: 29.8%; PSD: 24.8%; CHEGA: 5.2%; CDU: 4.1%; BE: 3.8%; IL: 3.3%; PAN: 0.9%; CDS-PP: 0.7%; Livre: 0.5%; Others/Invalid: 3.0%.
- ^ Results presented here exclude undecideds (17.8%). With their inclusion results are: PS: 29.0%; PSD: 24.1%; BE: 7.0%; CHEGA: 5.8%; CDU: 4.9%; IL: 4.6%; PAN: 3.5%; CDS-PP: 0.9%; Livre: 0.5%; Others/Invalid: 1.9%.
- ^ Results presented here exclude undecideds (17.1%). With their inclusion results are: PS: 29.4%; PSD: 22.2%; CHEGA: 7.4%; BE: 5.5%; IL: 5.3%; CDU: 3.7%; PAN: 2.9%; CDS-PP: 1.3%; Livre: 0.7%; Others/Invalid: 4.4%.
- ^ Results presented here exclude undecideds, non voters and non responsive (14.3% + 5.7% + 10.2%). With their inclusion results are: PS: 24.5%; PSD: 15.1%; CHEGA: 7.5%; BE: 6.0%; PAN: 3.7%; CDU: 3.1%; IL: 2.5%; CDS-PP: 1.6%; Livre: 0.4%; Others/Invalid: 5.3%.
