Opinion polling for the 2016 Portuguese presidential election

In the run up to the 2016 Portuguese presidential election, various organisations carried out opinion polling to gauge voting intention in Portugal. Results of such polls are displayed in this article.

Poll results are listed in the table below in reverse chronological order, showing the most recent first. The highest percentage figure in each polling survey is displayed in bold, and the background shaded in the leading candidate colour. In the instance that there is a tie, then no figure is shaded but both are displayed in bold. Poll results use the date the survey's fieldwork was done, as opposed to the date of publication.

Candidates vote

First round

Graphical summary

Polling

Exit poll

Date(s) administered	Poll source	Sample size											Others/ Undecided

			Marcelo PSD, CDS-PP	Belém Ind.	Nóvoa Ind.	Neto Ind.	E. Silva PCP	Matias BE	Morais Ind.	Ferreira Ind.	V. Silva Ind.	Sequeira Ind.

24 January 2016	Election results	48.7%	52.0	4.2	22.9	0.8	3.9	10.1	2.2	0.2	3.2	0.3	—

24 Jan	UCP–CESOP	31,018	49.0–54.0	3.0–5.0	22.0–25.0	0.0–2.0	3.0–5.0	9.0–11.0	1.0–3.0	0.0–1.0	2.0–4.0	0.0–1.0	—
24 Jan	Eurosondagem	43,678	50.1–54.9	3.3–4.8	21.1–24.8	0.7–1.4	3.0–4.1	8.8–11.3	1.4–2.5	0.3–0.7	2.6–3.7	0.3–0.7	—
24 Jan	Intercampus	15,481	50.9–55.7	2.9–5.9	19.3–23.3	—	1.9–4.9	8.8–12.4	—	—	—	—	5.5–8.5
16–20 Jan	Aximage	1,301	51.5	9.0	22.6	0.8	5.2	6.6	2.3	0.1	1.8	0.1
14–20 Jan	Intercampus	1,043	51.8	10.1	16.9	2.3	4.6	7.9	2.9	0.5	2.5	0.6
14–19 Jan	Eurosondagem	2,025	55.0	13.3	19.0	1.1	3.7	5.3	2.2	0.1	0.2	0.1	16.1^[1]
16–17 Jan	UCP–CESOP	3,340	52.0	8.0	22.0	1.0	3.0	8.0	3.0	0.5	2.0	0.5
11–14 Jan	Consulmark2	1,004	53.0	10.5	23.4	1.0	2.5	4.0	3.8	0.1	1.5	0.3
7–13 Jan	Eurosondagem	1,516	54.8	16.3	16.8	1.1	4.0	4.8	1.6	0.2	0.2	0.2	17.7^[2]
2–5 Jan	Aximage	602	52.9	11.8	16.9	1.0	2.9	2.8	2.9				8.8
2016
16–21 Dec	Eurosondagem	1,515	52.5	18.1	16.9	1.3	4.7	4.8	1.7
5–6 Dec	UCP–CESOP	1,183	62.0	14.0	15.0	1.0	3.0	3.0	1.0				1.0
28 Nov–2 Dec	Aximage	605	54.6	13.4	13.2	0.4	1.9	2.4	1.1				13.0
13–18 Nov	Eurosondagem	1,510	48.0	18.9	16.7	2.2	5.2	6.9	1.1				1.0
31 Oct–4 Nov	Aximage	603	56.9	13.1	15.3		2.1						12.9
26 Sep–1 Oct	Aximage	1,387	29.7	14.7	13.0	1.1	JS (10.3)						31.2^[3]
23–30 Sep	Intercampus	1,013	49.3	17.0	10.1	1.4							22.2^[4]
2015

Hypothetical runoff polling

Date(s) administered	Poll source	Sample size

			Marcelo PSD	Rio PSD	Santana PSD	Barroso PSD	Guterres PS	Vitorino PS	Silva Ind.	Nóvoa Ind.	Belém PS	Gama PS
14–20 Jan	Intercampus	1,043	68.4	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	31.6	-
14–20 Jan	Intercampus	1,043	67.0	-	-	-	-	-	-	33.0	-	-
14–19 Jan	Eurosondagem	2,025	65.2	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	34.8	-
14–19 Jan	Eurosondagem	2,025	64.8	-	-	-	-	-	-	35.2	-	-
7–13 Jan	Eurosondagem	1,516	63.7	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	36.3	-
7–13 Jan	Eurosondagem	1,516	63.0	-	-	-	-	-	-	37.0	-	-
2016
16–21 Dec	Eurosondagem	1,515	62.5	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	37.5	-
16–21 Dec	Eurosondagem	1,515	62.1	-	-	-	-	-	-	37.9	-	-
5–6 Dec	UCP–CESOP	1,183	57.0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	17.0	-
5–6 Dec	UCP–CESOP	1,183	57.0	-	-	-	-	-	-	17.0	-	-
4–8 Feb	Aximage	608	65.9	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	34.1	-
			65.7	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	34.3
			62.8	-	-	-	-	37.2	-	-	-	-
			-	59.6	-	-	-	-	-	-	40.4	-
			-	67.7	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	32.3
			-	54.8	-	-	-	45.2	-	-	-	-
			-	-	24.9	-	-	75.1	-	-	-	-
			-	-	35.2	-	-	-	-	-	64.8	-
			-	-	34.9	-	-	-	-	-	-	65.1
8–14 Jan	Eurosondagem	1,010	47.5	-	-	-	52.5	-	-	-	-	-
			-	45.9	-	-	54.1	-	-	-	-	-
			-	-	44.8	-	55.2	-	-	-	-	-
			48.0	-	-	-	-	52.0	-	-	-	-
			-	46.1	-	-	-	53.9	-	-	-	-
			-	-	43.4	-	-	56.6	-	-	-	-
			61.1	-	-	-	-	-	-	38.9	-	-
			-	56.5	-	-	-	-	-	43.5	-	-
			-	-	58.3	-	-	-	-	41.7	-	-
2015
17–21 Nov	Eurosondagem	1,033	-	-	-	39.7	60.3	-	-	-	-	-
			47.4	-	-	-	52.6	-	-	-	-	-
			-	-	41.3	-	58.7	-	-	-	-	-
			-	44.2	-	-	55.8	-	-	-	-	-
			-	-	-	40.7	-	59.3	-	-	-	-
			48.2	-	-	-	-	51.8	-	-	-	-
			-	-	44.5	-	-	55.5	-	-	-	-
			-	47.5	-	-	-	52.5	-	-	-	-
			-	-	-	55.2	-	-	44.8	-	-	-
			64.9	-	-	-	-	-	35.1	-	-	-
			-	-	58.0	-	-	-	42.0	-	-	-
			-	64.8	-	-	-	-	35.2	-	-	-
			-	-	-	69.5	-	-	-	30.5	-	-
			70.2	-	-	-	-	-	-	29.8	-	-
			-	-	65.1	-	-	-	-	34.9	-	-
			-	70.6	-	-	-	-	-	29.4	-	-
2014

Leadership polls

Preferred candidate

Poll results showing public opinion on who would be the best candidate for each political side, are shown in the table below in reverse chronological order, showing the most recent first.

Centre-Right/Right

Date(s) administered	Poll source	Sample size											Others/ Undecided

			Marcelo PSD	Rio PSD	Santana PSD	Barroso PSD	Portas CDS–PP	Mendes PSD	Esteves PSD	Beleza PSD	Leite PSD	Morais Ind.
12–16 Jul	Aximage	607	46.2	36.7	-	6.5	-	-	-	-	-	-	10.6
2–7 Jul	Eurosondagem	1,025	29.6	24.8	16.9	-	-	-	-	-	-	2.0	26.7
3–6 Mar	Aximage^[5]	600	49.8	35.7	5.6	-	-	-	-	-	7.0	-	1.9
3–6 Mar	Aximage^[6]	600	39.7	40.2	4.8	-	-	-	-	-	8.6	-	6.7
2015
6–9 Dez	Aximage	609	44.2	32.3	4.2	8.2	-	-	-	4.3	-	-	6.8
30 Oct–5 Nov	Eurosondagem	1,005	29.3	26.4	13.3	6.9	4.8	2.5	2.1	-	-	-	14.7
2013
5–7 Mar	Aximage	600	40.0	-	9.3	22.9	-	-	-	8.3	-	-	19.5
2012

Centre-Left/Left

Date(s) administered	Poll source	Sample size												Others/ Undecided

			Costa PS	Guterres PS	Sócrates PS	Vitorino PS	Silva Ind.	Rodrigues PS	Nóvoa Ind.	Belém PS	Seguro PS	Oliveira Martins Ind.	Neto PS
12–16 Jul	Aximage	607	-	-	-	-	-	-	25.9	32.4	-	18.1	-	23.7
2–7 Jul	Eurosondagem	1,025	-	-	-	-	-	-	33.3	25.0	-	-	4.8	36.9
3–6 Mar	Aximage^[7]	600	-	-	-	39.5	20.0	-	-	25.7	8.8	-	-	6.0
3–6 Mar	Aximage^[6]	600	-	-	-	42.4	10.7	-	-	21.1	13.4	-	-	12.4
2015
6–9 Dez	Aximage	609	43.8	27.3	-	-	6.3	-	3.1	10.4	-	-	-	9.1
30 Oct–5 Nov	Eurosondagem	1,005	26.6	20.9	13.7	10.0	6.5	3.3	2.2	-	-	-	-	16.8
2013
5–7 Mar	Aximage	600	33.1	25.4	-	-	10.3	-	-	15.0	-	-	-	16.2
2012

References

^ Undecided voters: 16.1
^ Undecided voters: 17.7
^ Rui Rio: 21.5
^ Rui Rio: 15.1
^ Only PSD and CDS–PP voters asked.
^ ^a ^b All voters asked.
^ Only PS, BE and CDU voters asked.

External links

ERC - Official publication of polls

[Undecided2-1] Undecided voters: 16.1

[Undecided1-2] Undecided voters: 17.7

[Rio2-3] Rui Rio: 21.5

[Rio1-4] Rui Rio: 15.1

[Right-5] Only PSD and CDS–PP voters asked.

[All-6] All voters asked.

[Left-7] Only PS, BE and CDU voters asked.

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