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Opinion polling for the 1999 New Zealand general election

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Opinion polling was commissioned throughout the duration of the 45th New Zealand Parliament in the lead up to the 1999 election by various organisations.

Party vote

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Polls are listed in the table below in chronological order. Refusals are generally excluded from the party vote percentages, while question wording and the treatment of "don't know" responses and those not intending to vote may vary between survey firms.

Graphical summary

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Local regression of polls conducted

Individual polls

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Poll Date[nb 1] Labour National NZ First Alliance ACT Green United
1996 election result[1] 12 Oct 1996 28.19 33.87 13.35 10.10 6.10 – 0.88
One News Colmar Brunton[2] 13 Feb 1997 31 45 7 7 4.3 – 0.2
One News Colmar Brunton[2] 13 Mar 1997 32 47 4.2 7 4.4 – –
One News Colmar Brunton[2] 11 Apr 1997 36 41 5 8 6 – 0.1
One News Colmar Brunton[3] 13 May 1997 42 38 3.8 6 4.7 – 0.1
TV3/CM Research[2] 25 May 1997 45 30 6 6.7 7.1 – –
One News Colmar Brunton[4] 25 Jun 1997 41 39 4.4 7 4.9 – 0.1
One News Colmar Brunton[2] 10 Jul 1997 42 39 3.8 7 4.5 – 0.2
One News Colmar Brunton[2] 7 Aug 1997 42 39 3.7 9 4.7 – 0
One News Colmar Brunton[2] 18 Sep 1997 45 36 1.9 7 6 – 0.6
TV3/CM Research[2] 11 Oct 1997 49 31 4.5 8.3 5.9 – –
New Zealand Herald-DigiPoll[5] 13 Oct 1997 50 32 1.7 5.9 4.6 – –
One News Colmar Brunton[2] 16 Oct 1997 52 30 1.8 7 6 – 0.2
One News Colmar Brunton[2] 4 Nov 1997 45 37 2.3 6 5 – 0.3
One News Colmar Brunton[2] 13 Nov 1997 45 36 2.8 6 7 – –
TV3/CM Research[2] 23 Nov 1997 45 34 3.1 7.6 7 – –
8 December 1997 – Jenny Shipley is elected Prime Minister and leader of the National Party after Jim Bolger's resignation.
One News Colmar Brunton[6] 8–10 Dec 1997 46 40 1.1 6 5 0.6 0.1
One News Colmar Brunton[7] 12 Feb 1998 45 42 1.3 5 5 0.4 –
TV3-CM Research[7] 15 Feb 1998 44 38 1.8 7.9 4.4 0.5 –
One News Colmar Brunton[8] 25 Mar 1998 39 42 1.6 5 8 0.6 0.3
TV3/CM Research[2] 21 Apr 1998 38 42 2.2 6.3 6.1 0.4 –
One News Colmar Brunton[2] 23 Apr 1998 38 46 2.5 6 5 0.4 0.3
2 May 1998 – National narrowly wins the Taranaki-King Country by-election after Bolger's resignation.
New Zealand Herald-DigiPoll[9] 11 May 1998 34.7 38.3 1.7 8.5 11.8 1.4 –
TV3/CM Research[2] 14 May 1998 37 41 2.1 8 9 0.2 0.1
One News Colmar Brunton[2] 18 Jun 1998 37 37 2.1 9 11 0.5 0.1
One News Colmar Brunton[2] 9 Jul 1998 42 36 1.9 9 8 0.2 –
TV3-CM Research[10] 10 Jul 1998 42 36 2.3 9.9 5.1 1 –
One News Colmar Brunton[11] 6 Aug 1998 40 39 2.6 9 6 0.7 –
New Zealand Herald-DigiPoll[11] 11 Aug 1998 46.1 32.6 2.2 9.7 5.9 – –
One News Colmar Brunton[2] 13 Aug 1998 41 39 2.9 9 5 – –
14 August 1998 – Winston Peters is sacked from cabinet by Shipley ending the coalition between National and New Zealand First.
TV3/CM Research[2] 13 Sep 1998 42 35 4.4 9.1 4.7 0.4 –
One News Colmar Brunton[12] 22 Sep 1998 42 41 1.8 7 6 0.3 –
One News Colmar Brunton[2] 15 Oct 1998 48 35 2 6 6 0.7 0.1
One News Colmar Brunton[13] 16 Nov 1998 48 34 2 7 6 0.5 –
TV3/CM Research[14] 17 Nov 1998 49 32 3 5 5 1 –
New Zealand Herald-Digipoll[15] 7 Dec 1998 51 32 3.5 6 4.5 – –
One News Colmar Brunton[2] 10 Dec 1998 45 35 2.4 8 5 0.4 0.1
One News Colmar Brunton[2] 11 Feb 1999 42 41 2.6 7 3.9 0.7 –
TV3/CM Research[2] 14 Feb 1999 43 37 3 7 5 1 –
One News Colmar Brunton[16] 23 Mar 1999 39 42 2.2 7 6 0.6 0.4
TV3/CM Research[2] 18 Apr 1999 41 37 3 8 5 1 –
One News Colmar Brunton[17] 27 Apr 1999 44 38 1.5 6 6 0.5 0.4
One News Colmar Brunton[18] 19 May 1999 44 39 2.6 7 4.4 0.9 0.2
One News Colmar Brunton[2] 17 Jun 1999 42 41 1.9 6 4.9 1.4 –
TV3/CM Research[2] 20 Jun 1999 46 33 4 7 4 1.4 –
One News Colmar Brunton[19] 13 Jul 1999 44 38 1.8 6 4.7 0.9 0.2
TV3/CM Research[2] 25 Jul 1999 38 37 4.7 8 6 1.5 –
One News Colmar Brunton[2] 5 August 1999 40 38 4 7 7 1.1 –
TV3/CM Research[2] 22 August 1999 40 32 7 7 6 2.6 –
New Zealand Herald-DigiPoll[20] 28 Aug – 3 Sep 1999 43.8 35.7 5.5 5 – 3.1 –
One News Colmar Brunton[2] 16 Sep 1999 41 35 4.1 7 5 1.9 0.2
TV3/CM Research[2] 19 Sep 1999 39 33 7 6 7 2.4 –
TV3/CM Research[2] 10 Oct 1999 40 36 4 8 7 2 –
TV3/CM Research[2] 20 Oct 1999 37 33 6 7 9 2.5 –
One News Colmar Brunton[21] 18 Oct 1999 39 37 6 4.5 7 1 0.5
New Zealand Herald-Digipoll[22] 5 Nov 1999 35.2 34 1 8.7 9.2 2.9 0.3
TV3/CM Research[2] 7 Nov 1999 41 28 6 7 10 2.9 –
One News Colmar Brunton[2] 11 Nov 1999 34 33 6 9 11 2.4 0.1
TV3/CM Research[2] 17 Nov 1999 37 30 6 9 9 2.8 –
New Zealand Herald-Digipoll[23] 26 Nov 1999 39.8 29.9 3.6 7.7 8.5 5.4 –
One News Colmar Brunton[24] 26 Nov 1999 39 31 3.2 8 7 6 0.7
TV3/CM Research[24] 26 Nov 1999 34 29 5.5 9 11 6 –
1999 election result[25] 27 Nov 1999 38.74 30.50 4.26 7.74 7.04 5.16 0.54

Preferred prime minister

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Individual polls

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Poll Date[nb 1] Helen Clark Jim Bolger Jenny Shipley Winston Peters Jim Anderton Richard Prebble Mike Moore
One News Colmar Brunton[3] 13 May 1997 21 20 6 4 6 – 5
One News Colmar Brunton[4] 25 Jun 1997 26 21 4 4 5 – 4
One News Colmar Brunton[26] 13 Aug 1997 25 20 9 3 7 – –
8 December 1997 – Jenny Shipley is elected Prime Minister and leader of the National Party after Jim Bolger's resignation.
One News Colmar Brunton[6] 8 – 10 Dec 1997 28 5 27 2 – – –
One News Colmar Brunton[7] 12 Feb 1998 26 3 27 1 5 – 3
TV3-CM Research[7] 15 Feb 1998 28 4 20 2 5 – 5
One News Colmar Brunton[8] 25 Mar 1998 23 3 31 3 4 – 3
TV3-CM Research[10] 10 Jul 1998 21 – 22 – – – –
One News Colmar Brunton[11] 11 Aug 1998 22 – 28 2 9 2 –
14 August 1998 – Winston Peters is sacked from cabinet by Shipley ending the coalition between National and New Zealand First.
One News Colmar Brunton[12] 22 Sep 1998 23 – 28 3 7 1 –
TV3/CM Research[14] 17 Nov 1998 24 – 15 4 6 – –
One News Colmar Brunton[16] 23 Mar 1999 21 – 29 – – – –
One News Colmar Brunton[17] 27 Apr 1999 21 – 27 3 5 1 –
One News Colmar Brunton[18] 19 May 1999 22 – 27 4 6 1 –
New Zealand Herald-DigiPoll[27] 11 Aug 1999 19.5 – 17.6 2.4 6.4 – 3
New Zealand Herald-DigiPoll[28] 8 Sep 1999 19.5 1.1 16 6.9 4.4 1.8 1.7
One News Colmar Brunton[24] 26 Nov 1999 30 – 27 – – – –
TV3/CM Research[24] 26 Nov 1999 23 – 20 – – – –

Electorate polling

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Coromandel

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Poll Date Tony Bird Jeanette Fitzsimons Margaret Hawkeswood Robyn McDonald Murray McLean
Reid Research[29] 5–8 Aug 1999 6 33 20 10 31
Sunday Star Times/UMR Insight[30] 24 Oct 1999 – 34 15 – 37
TV1 Colmar Brunton[31][32] 10 Nov 1999 8 39 13 4 36
Dominion/UMR Insight[33] 15 Nov 1999 – 43 11 – 35
TV1 Colmar Brunton[34] 18–21 Nov 1999 3 44 11 – 39
1999 election result 27 Nov 1999 3.56 39.98 11.37 3.61 39.25

Wellington Central

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Poll Date Marian Hobbs Richard Prebble
TV1 Colmar Brunton[35] 8 Nov 1999 48 47
1999 election result 27 Nov 1999 48.37 44.27

Ikaroa-Rāwhiti

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Poll Date Derek Fox Bill Gudgeon Parekura Horomia Dalvanius Prime Des Ratima Vicky Robin Tauni Sinclair
Marae[36] 31.7 10.9 34.6 3.9 4.2 2.9 3.3
Marae[37] 21 Nov 1999 34 – 36.6 – – – –
1999 election result 27 Nov 1999 37.16 5.97 40.99 — 5.27 0.77 —

Waiariki

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Poll Date Tuariki Delamere Mita Ririnui
Marae[37] 21 Nov 1999 27.1 30
1999 election result 27 Nov 1999 20.01 45.11

See also

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Notes

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  1. ^ a b These are the survey dates of the poll, or if the survey dates are not stated, the date the poll was released.

References

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  1. ^ "Part I - Summary of Party List and Electorate Candidate Seats" (PDF). Wellington: Electoral Commission. 1997. Retrieved 2 August 2020.
  2. ^ a b c d e f g h i j k l m n o p q r s t u v w x y z aa ab ac ad ae af ag ah ai aj "Historical Pollling Data 1974–2023". Patrick Leyland. Retrieved 1 August 2023.
  3. ^ a b Luke, Peter (13 May 1997). "Labour tops poll as Govt rating slides". The Press.
  4. ^ a b "Coalition takes a dive". The Press. 25 June 1997.
  5. ^ "Polls show Labour may gain enough votes for outright win". The Press. 14 October 1997.
  6. ^ a b "Little between Clark, Shipley in poll rating". The Press. 16 December 1997. p. 3.
  7. ^ a b c d "Shipley leads in one poll, trails in another". The Dominion. 17 February 1998. p. 2.
  8. ^ a b "Labour now trails National in latest poll". Waikato Times. 25 March 1998. p. 2.
  9. ^ Espiner, Guyon (12 May 1998). "Fletcher sees no mandate for 'lurch to right'". The Evening Post. p. 9.
  10. ^ a b c "Labour ahead of National in new polls". The Press. 11 August 1998. p. 3.
  11. ^ a b "Poll shows National's popularity on the rise". Waikato Times. 22 September 1998. p. 2.
  12. ^ Edwards, Brent (16 November 1998). "Clark confident of Labour victory after latest poll". The Evening Post. p. 3.
  13. ^ a b "Two polls show Labour leads". Waikato Times. 17 November 1998. p. 2.
  14. ^ "Poll shows Labour could govern alone". The Press. 8 December 1998. p. 9.
  15. ^ a b "National now ahead of Labour in polls". Waikato Times. 23 March 1999. p. 21.
  16. ^ a b "Poll shows Labour Party back in front". The Dominion. 27 April 1999. p. 2.
  17. ^ a b "Labour retains lead as National inches up poll". Waikato Times. 19 May 1999. p. 2.
  18. ^ Llewellyn, Ian (13 July 1999). "TV1 Poll Shows A Return To Status Quo". Scoop.co.nz.
  19. ^ Hill, Jonathan (6 September 1999). "Labour Surge, Alliance Slump in Latest Poll". Scoop.co.nz.
  20. ^ "Nats on rise, but Prebble holds firm; Nats on rise in polls". The Evening Post. 18 October 1999. p. 1.
  21. ^ "Latest poll points to election cliffhanger". Waikato Times. 5 November 1999. p. 2.
  22. ^ Edwards, Brent (26 November 1999). "Polls point to National's ousting". Waikato Times. p. 2.
  23. ^ a b c d Main, Victoria (26 November 1999). "Polls tip Labour-led coalition". The Dominion. p. 1.
  24. ^ "1999 GENERAL ELECTION – Summary of Overall Results". Wellington: Electoral Commission. 27 November 1999. Retrieved 15 December 2017.
  25. ^ "Rise in support for Shipley as leader". The Press. 14 August 1997.
  26. ^ "Clark tops Shipley in preferred PM poll". The Press. 11 August 1999. p. 7.
  27. ^ "Peters back on track with voters". The Press. 8 September 1999. p. 10.
  28. ^ "Poll Shows Fitzsimons Ahead In Coromandel". Scoop.co.nz. 17 August 1999.
  29. ^ "Greens' Coromandel confidence buoyed by poll". 24 October 1999.
  30. ^ Hill, Jonathan (10 November 1999). "Fitzsimons Edges Ahead in Latest Coromandel Poll". Scoop.co.nz.
  31. ^ "Fitzsimons takes lead in Coromandel". Scoop.co.nz. 11 November 1999.
  32. ^ Hill, Jonathan (15 November 1999). "Greens Look Set to go to Parliament". Scoop.co.nz.
  33. ^ Hill, Jonathan (25 November 1999). "Greens Still Lead in Coromandel". Scoop.co.nz.
  34. ^ Hill, Jonathan (9 November 1999). "Poll Shock For Prebble in Wellington Central". Scoop.co.nz.
  35. ^ "Mayor in close race for seat". New Zealand Herald.
  36. ^ a b Hill, Jonathan (22 November 1999). "Poll Shows Tight Race For Maori Seats". Scoop.co.nz.
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