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Opinion polling for the 1996 New Zealand general election

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Opinion polling was commissioned throughout the duration of the 44th New Zealand Parliament in the lead up to the 1996 election by various research organisations.

Graphical summary

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Local regression of polls conducted

Individual polls

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Polls are listed in the table below in chronological order. Refusals are generally excluded from the party vote percentages, while question wording and the treatment of "don't know" responses and those not intending to vote may vary between survey firms.

Unless otherwise noted the information is sourced from here:[1]

Poll Date[nb 1] Labour National Alliance NZ First ACT United
1993 election result[2] 6 Nov 1993 34.68 35.05 18.21 8.40 – –
TVNZ Heylen 4 Dec 1993 25 35 27 10 – –
TVNZ Heylen 19 Feb 1994 32 35 23 8 – –
TVNZ Heylen 5 Mar 1994 32 32 27 7 – –
TVNZ Heylen 26 Mar 1994 29 32 27 7 – –
TVNZ Heylen 7 May 1994 30 34 24 8 – –
TVNZ Heylen 28 May 1994 29 32 27 7 – –
TVNZ Heylen 2 Jul 1994 29 36 24 8 – –
TVNZ Heylen 30 Jul 1994 27 35 28 7 – –
13 August 1994 – National narrowly wins the Selwyn by-election after Ruth Richardson's resignation.
TVNZ Heylen 3 Sep 1994 22 36 32 7 – –
TVNZ Heylen 1 Oct 1994 24 35 29 8 – –
TVNZ Heylen 29 Oct 1994 27 39 25 7 – –
TVNZ Heylen 3 Dec 1994 28 40 22 6 2 –
TVNZ Heylen 9 May 1995 25 38 24 5 4 –
One News Colmar Brunton 15 Jun 1995 27 36 24 6 3 –
28 June 1995 – United New Zealand is formed by 4 former National MPs and 3 former Labour MPs.
One News Colmar Brunton 17 Jul 1995 24 42 20 5 2 2
One News Colmar Brunton 13 Aug 1995 23 42 20 5 2.9 0.7
One News Colmar Brunton 7 Sep 1995 24 46 17 5 1.9 0.3
One News Colmar Brunton 7 Oct 1995 16 49 21 4.5 2.9 0.8
One News Colmar Brunton 14 Nov 1995 20 45 22 5 2.1 1
One News Colmar Brunton 21 Feb 1996 20 44 22 8 1.3 0.8
One News Colmar Brunton 18 Mar 1996 17 42 16 17 3.8 1.3
April 1996 – Two former National MPs and one former Labour MP defected to New Zealand First.
One News Colmar Brunton 18 Apr 1996 18 40 11 22 4.1 0.5
One News Colmar Brunton 16 May 1996 15 35 11 29 3 0.3
27 May 1996 – Labour Party leader Helen Clark survived a leadership challenge with deputy leader David Caygill resigning soon after to be replaced with Michael Cullen.
TV3 9 Jun 1996 16 43 7 28 2.4 –
One News Colmar Brunton 14 Jun 1996 16 41 9 25 1.8 0.6
TV3 7 Jul 1996 16 41 12 24 2.7 -
One News Colmar Brunton 19 Jul 1996 19 43 10 20 3.2 0.2
TV3 21 Jul 1996 19 43 13 20 1.2 –
One News Colmar Brunton 2 Aug 1996 15 40 13 21 2.5 0.4
TV3 4 Aug 1996 19 42 9 21 3.2 –
One News Colmar Brunton 15 Aug 1996 14 39 13 20 4 0.3
TV3 18 Aug 1996 20 37 14 17 3.4 -
One News Colmar Brunton 29 Aug 1996 19 35 12 20 4.6 0.6
TV3 1 Sep 1996 21 38 12 18 2.4 -
One News Colmar Brunton 12 Sep 1996 16 35 15 19 4.3 0.7
One News Colmar Brunton 26 Sep 1996 18 40 15 14 5 0.4
One News Colmar Brunton 3 Oct 1996 24 34 15 15 3.8 0.5
TV3 8 Oct 1996 26 30 17 16 6.4 -
1996 election result[3] 12 Oct 1996 28.19 33.87 10.10 13.35 6.10 0.88

See also

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Notes

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  1. ^ These are the survey dates of the poll, or if the survey dates are not stated, the date the poll was released.

References

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  1. ^ "Historical Pollling Data 1974–2021". Patrick Leyland. Retrieved 10 March 2022.
  2. ^ "Elections to the New Zealand House of Representatives". Election Resources on the Internet. Retrieved 17 December 2011.
  3. ^ "1996 GENERAL ELECTION - OFFICIAL RESULTS AND STATISTICS". ElectionResults.govt.nz. Electoral Commission. 18 October 2020.
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