Jump to content

Estimates of historical world population

From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

Not to be confused with Historical projections of population growth.
Comparison of humans living today with all previous generations

This article lists current estimates of the world population in history. In summary, estimates for the progression of world population since the Late Middle Ages are in the following ranges:

Year 1400 1500 1600 1700 1800 1900 2000 2100
population
(in billions)		 0.35–0.40 0.43–0.50 0.50–0.58 0.60–0.68 0.89–0.98 1.56–1.71 6.06–6.15 c. 10–13
growth p.a.[1] >0% <0.12% 0.15–0.3% 0.1–0.15% 0.3–0.5% 0.5–0.6% 1.3–1.4% 0.7–0.8%

Estimates for pre-modern times are necessarily fraught with great uncertainties, and few of the published estimates have confidence intervals; in the absence of a straightforward means to assess the error of such estimates, a rough idea of expert consensus can be gained by comparing the values given in independent publications. Population estimates cannot be considered accurate to more than two decimal digits; for example, the world population for the year 2012 was estimated at 7.02, 7.06, and 7.08 billion by the United States Census Bureau, the Population Reference Bureau, and the United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs, respectively, corresponding to a spread of estimates of the order of 0.8%.

Deep prehistory

[edit]
Further information: Prehistoric demography
Graph of world population over the past 12,000 years (Holocene)

As a general rule, the confidence of estimates on historical world population decreases for the more distant past. Robust population data exist only for the last two or three centuries. Until the late 18th century, few governments had ever performed an accurate census. In many early attempts, such as in Ancient Egypt and the Persian Empire, the focus was on counting merely a subset of the population for purposes of taxation or military service.[2] Published estimates for the 1st century ("AD 1") suggest uncertainty of the order of 50% (estimates range between 150 and 330 million). Some estimates extend their timeline into deep prehistory, to "10,000 BC", i.e., the early Holocene, when world population estimates range roughly between 1 and 10 million (with an uncertainty of up to an order of magnitude).[3][4]

Estimates for yet deeper prehistory, into the Paleolithic, are of a different nature. At this time, human populations consisted entirely of non-sedentary hunter-gatherer populations, with anatomically modern humans existing alongside archaic human varieties, some of which are still ancestral to the modern human population due to interbreeding with modern humans during the Upper Paleolithic. Estimates of the size of these populations are a topic of paleoanthropology. A late human population bottleneck is postulated by some scholars at approximately 70,000 years ago, during the Toba catastrophe, when Homo sapiens population may have dropped to as low as between 1,000 and 10,000 individuals.[5][6] For the time of speciation of Homo sapiens, some 200,000 years ago, an effective population size of the order of 10,000 to 30,000 individuals has been estimated, with an actual "census population" of early Homo sapiens of roughly 100,000 to 300,000 individuals.[7]

Estimates regarding the questions of "how many people have ever lived?" or "what percentage of people who have ever lived are alive today?" can be traced to the 1970s.[8] The more dramatic phrasing of "the living outnumber the dead" also dates to the 1970s, a time of population explosion and growing fears of human overpopulation in the wake of decolonization and before the adoption of China's one-child policy. The claim that "the living outnumber the dead" was never accurate. Arthur C. Clarke in 2001: A Space Odyssey (1968) has the claim that "Behind every man, now alive stand 30 ghosts, for that is the ratio by which the dead outnumber the living", which was roughly accurate at the time of writing.[9][10]

Recent estimates of the "total number of people who have ever lived" are in the order of 100 billion.[10][11] The answer depends on the definition of "people", i.e., whether only Homo sapiens are to be counted, or all of the genus Homo; due to the small population sizes in the Lower Paleolithic, however, the order of magnitude of the estimate is not affected by the choice of cut-off date substantially more than by the uncertainty of estimates throughout the Neolithic to Iron Age.[12] Importantly, the estimate is also affected by the estimate of infant mortalities vs. stillborn infants, due to the very high rate of infant mortality throughout the pre-modern period. An estimate on the "total number of people who have ever lived" as of 1995 was calculated by Haub (1995) at "about 105 billion births since the dawn of the human race" with a cut-off date at 50,000 BC (beginning of the Upper Paleolithic), and inclusion of a high infant mortality rate throughout pre-modern history.[13]

Historical population

[edit]

Before 1950

[edit]

The following table uses astronomical year numbering for dates, negative numbers corresponding roughly to the corresponding year BC (for example, −8,000 = 8,000 BC, etc.). The table starts counting approximately 10,000 years before present, or around 8,000 BC, during the middle Greenlandian, about 1,700 years after the end of the Younger Dryas and 1,800 years before the 8.2-kiloyear event.

From the beginning of the early modern period until the 20th century, world population has been characterized by a rapid growth. For the period of Classical antiquity to the Middle Ages, roughly 500 BC to AD 1500, there was also a general tendency of growth (estimated at a factor 4 to 5 over the 2,000-year period), but not strictly monotonic: A noticeable dip in world population is assumed due to the Black Death in the mid-14th century.[14]

Year PRB
(1973–2016)[15] 		UN
(2015)[16] 		Maddison
(2008)[17] 		HYDE
(2010)[18] 		Biraben
(1980)[19] 		McEvedy &
Jones (1978)[20] 		Thomlinson
(1975)[21] 		Durand
(1974)[22] 		Clark
(1967)[23] 		Gapminder
−10000 2M[24] 4M 1–10M 4M
−9000 4M
−8000 5M 5M 5–10M
−7000 7M 8M
−6000 14M 11M
−5000 27M 18M[24] 5M 5–20M 5M
−4000 50M 28M 7M 7M
−3000 100M 45M 14M 14M
−2000 72M 27M 27M
−1000 100M 115M 50M 50M
−500 150M
−200 227M 150M 150M
1 300M[25] 300M 231M[26] 188M[24] 255M 170M 200M 270–330M 256M[27] 170M
100 195M
200 202M 256M 190M 190M
300 205M
350 254M
400 209M 206M 190M 190M
500 280M 210M[24] 206M 190M 190M
600 213M 206M 200M 237M 200M
700 226M 207M 210M 207M
800 240M 224M 220M 261M 224M
900 269M 226M 240M 226M
1000 400M 310M 267M 295M[24] 254M 265M 275–345M 280M 254M
1100 450M 353M 301M 320M 301M
1200 500M 393M 400M 360M 384M 400M
1250 400M 416M 416M
1300 500M 392M 432M 360M 400M 432M
1340 443M 378M 443M
1400 500M 390M 374M 350M 374M
1500 600M 500M 438M 461M[24] 425M 440–540M 427M 460M
1600 600M 556M 554M[24] 579M 545M 498M 579M
1650 (<700M)[14] 545M 500M 516M 579M
1700 660M 1000M 603M[24] 1079M 1000M 1041M 1079M
1750 791M 814M 700M 770M
1800 1,000M 978M 989M[24] 900M 985M
1820 1,042M 1,093M
1850 1,265M 1,262M 1,263M 1,241M 1,200M 1,200M 1,278M
1870 1,276M 1,347M
1875 1,325M 1,383M
1900 1,656M 1,650M 1,563M 1,654M[24] 1,633M 1,625M 1,600M 1,650–1,710M 1,668M 1,645M
1910 1,750M 1,777M 1,790M
1913 1,793M 1,829M
1920 1,860M 1,863M 1,912M 1,968M 1,924M
1925 2,000M 2,000M 2,007M
1930 2,070M 2,092M 2,145M 2,100M
1940 2,300M 2,299M 2,307M 2,340M 2,324M

1950 to 2016

[edit]

After World War II, demographic data of some accuracy becomes available for a significant number of countries, and population estimates are often given as grand totals of numbers (typically given by country) of widely diverging accuracies. Some sources give these numbers rounded to the nearest million or the nearest thousand, while others give them without any rounding.

Taking these numbers at face value would be false precision; in spite of being stated to four, seven, or even ten digits, they should not be interpreted as accurate to more than three digits at best (estimates by the United States Census Bureau and by the United Nations differ by about 0.5–1.5%).

Year United States Census Bureau (2017)[28] Population Reference Bureau (1973–2016)[15] United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs (2015)[16] Maddison (2008)[17] HYDE (2007)[24] Biraben (1980)[19] McEvedy & Jones (1978)[20] Thomlinson (1975)[21] Durand (1974)[22] Clark (1967)[23]
1950 2,557,628,654 2,516,000,000 2,525,149,000 2,544,000,000 2,527,960,000 2,527,000,000 2,500,000,000 2,400,000,000 2,486,000,000
1951 2,594,939,877 2,572,850,917 2,571,663,000
1952 2,636,772,306 2,619,292,068 2,617,949,000
1953 2,682,053,389 2,665,865,392 2,665,959,000
1954 2,730,228,104 2,713,172,027 2,716,927,000
1955 2,782,098,943 2,761,650,981 2,769,074,000
1956 2,835,299,673 2,811,572,031 2,822,502,000
1957 2,891,349,717 2,863,042,795 2,879,934,000
1958 2,948,137,248 2,916,030,167 2,939,254,000
1959 3,000,716,593 2,970,395,814 2,995,909,000
1960 3,043,001,508 3,026,002,942 3,041,507,000 3,042,000,000
1961 3,083,966,929 3,082,830,266 3,082,161,000
1962 3,140,093,217 3,141,071,531 3,135,787,000 3,036,000,000
1963 3,209,827,882 3,201,178,277 3,201,354,000
1964 3,281,201,306 3,263,738,832 3,266,477,000
1965 3,350,425,793 3,329,122,479 3,333,138,000
1966 3,420,677,923 3,397,475,247 3,402,224,000 3,288,000,000
1967 3,490,333,715 3,468,521,724 3,471,464,000
1968 3,562,313,822 3,541,674,891 3,543,086,000
1969 3,637,159,050 3,616,108,749 3,615,743,000
1970 3,712,697,742 3,691,172,616 3,691,157,000 3,710,000,000 3,637,000,000 3,600,000,000 3,600,000,000– 3,700,000,000 3,632,000,000
1971 3,790,326,948 3,766,754,345 3,769,818,000
1972 3,866,568,653 3,842,873,611 3,846,499,000
1973 3,942,096,442 3,919,182,332 3,922,793,000 3,923,000,000 3,860,000,000
1974 4,016,608,813 3,995,304,922 3,997,677,000
1975 4,089,083,233 4,071,020,434 4,070,671,000 3,900,000,000 4,000,000,000
1976 4,160,185,010 4,146,135,850 4,141,445,000
1977 4,232,084,578 4,220,816,737 4,213,539,000
1978 4,304,105,753 4,295,664,825 4,286,317,000
1979 4,379,013,942 4,371,527,871 4,363,144,000
1980 4,451,362,735 4,449,048,798 4,439,529,000 4,461,000,000
1981 4,534,410,125 4,528,234,634 4,514,838,000
1982 4,614,566,561 4,608,962,418 4,587,307,000
1983 4,695,736,743 4,691,559,840 4,676,388,000
1984 4,774,569,391 4,776,392,828 4,756,521,000
1985 4,856,462,699 4,863,601,517 4,837,719,000
1986 4,940,571,232 4,953,376,710 4,920,968,000
1987 5,027,200,492 5,045,315,871 5,006,672,000
1988 5,114,557,167 5,138,214,688 5,093,306,000
1989 5,201,440,110 5,230,000,000 5,180,540,000
1990 5,288,955,934 5,320,816,667 5,269,029,000 5,308,000,000
1991 5,371,585,922 5,408,908,724 5,351,922,000
1992 5,456,136,278 5,494,899,570 5,435,722,000
1993 5,538,268,316 5,578,865,109 5,518,127,000
1994 5,618,682,132 5,661,086,346 5,599,396,000
1995 5,699,202,985 5,760,000,000 5,741,822,412 5,681,575,000
1996 5,779,440,593 5,821,016,750 5,762,212,000
1997 5,857,972,543 5,840,000,000 5,898,688,337 5,842,122,000
1998 5,935,213,248 5,975,303,657 5,921,366,000
1999 6,012,074,922 6,051,478,010 5,999,622,000
2000 6,088,571,383 6,067,000,000 6,127,700,428 6,076,558,000 6,145,000,000 5,750,000,000
2001 6,165,219,247 6,137,000,000 6,204,147,026 6,154,791,000
2002 6,242,016,348 6,215,000,000 6,280,853,817 6,231,704,000
2003 6,318,590,956 6,314,000,000 6,357,991,749 6,308,364,000
2004 6,395,699,509 6,396,000,000 6,435,705,595 6,374,056,000
2005 6,473,044,732 6,477,000,000 6,514,094,605 6,462,987,000
2006 6,551,263,534 6,555,000,000 6,593,227,977 6,540,214,000
2007 6,629,913,759 6,625,000,000 6,673,105,937 6,616,689,000
2008 6,709,049,780 6,705,000,000 6,753,649,228 6,694,832,000
2009 6,788,214,394 6,809,972,000 6,834,721,933 6,764,086,000
2010 6,858,584,755 6,892,319,000 6,916,183,482
2011 6,935,999,491 6,986,951,000 6,997,998,760
2012 7,013,871,313 7,057,075,000 7,080,072,417
2013 7,092,128,094 7,136,796,000 7,162,119,434
2014 7,169,968,185 7,238,184,000 7,243,784,000
2015 7,247,892,788 7,336,435,000 7,349,472,000
2016 7,325,996,709 7,418,151,841

By world region

[edit]
UN estimates (as of 2017) for world population by continent in 2000 and in 2050 (pie chart size to scale)
     Asia      Africa      Europe      Central/South America      North America      Oceania

Population estimates for world regions based on Maddison (2007),[29] in millions. The row showing total world population includes the average growth rate per year over the period separating each column from the preceding one.

Year 1 1000 1500 1600 1700 1820 1913 2000 2030
Asia 168
(74%) 		183
(69%) 		284
(65%) 		379
(68%) 		402
(67%) 		710
(68%) 		978
(55%) 		3,605
(59%) 		4,790
(59%)
East Asia/Southeast Asia 74
(33%) 		88
(33%) 		166
(38%) 		223
(40%) 		216
(36%) 		469
(45%) 		613
(34%) 		1,996
(33%) 		2,417
(30%)
South Asia 75
(33%) 		75
(28%) 		110
(25%) 		135
(24%) 		165
(27%) 		216
(21%) 		326
(18%) 		1,372
(23%) 		2,003
(25%)
Europe[30] 34
(15%) 		40
(15%) 		78
(18%) 		112
(20%) 		127
(21%) 		224
(21%) 		498
(28%) 		742
(13%) 		829
(11%)
West Asia 19
(8%) 		20
(7%) 		18
(3%) 		21
(3%) 		21
(3%) 		25
(2%) 		39
(2%) 		237
(4%) 		370
(5%)
Africa 17
(8%) 		32
(12%) 		47
(11%) 		55
(10%) 		61
(10%) 		74
(7%) 		125
(7%) 		798
(13%) 		1,449
(18%)
Central/South America 6
(3%) 		11
(4%) 		18
(4%) 		9
(2%) 		12
(2%) 		22
(2%) 		81
(5%) 		520
(9%) 		702
(9%)
North America 1
(0%) 		1
(0%) 		2
(0%) 		2
(0%) 		1
(0%) 		11
(1%) 		105
(6%) 		314
(5%) 		413
(5%)
Oceania 0.4 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.4 5 23
(0%) 		28
(0%)
World 226 267 438 556 603 1,041 1,791 6,062 8,175
World growth p.a. +0.0% +0.1% +0.2% +0.1% +0.5% +0.6% +1.4% +1.0%

World Population Estimates, 20 Countries and Regional Totals, AD 1–2000 (in thousands)

[edit]

[31]

Year 1 1000 1500 1600 1700 1820 1870 1900 1950 1973 1998[31]
Austria 500 700 2,000 2,500 2,500 3,369 4,520 6,767 6,935 7,586 8,078
Belgium 300 400 1,400 1,600 2,000 3,424 5,096 7,666 8,640 9,738 10,197
Denmark 250 360 600 650 700 1,155 1,888 2,983 4,269 5,022 5,303
Finland 250 250 300 400 400 1,169 1,754 3,027 4,009 4,666 5,153
France 5,000 6,500 15,000 18,500 21,471 31,246 38,440 41,463 41,836 52,118 58,805
Germany 3,000 3,500 12,000 16,000 15,000 24,905 39,231 65,058 68,371 78,956 82,029
Italy 7,000 6,000 10,500 13,100 13,300 20,176 27,888 37,248 47,105 54,751 57,592
Netherlands 200 300 950 1,500 1,900 2,355 3,615 6,164 10,114 13,438 15,700
Norway 250 400 300 400 500 970 1,735 2,447 3,265 3,961 4,432
Sweden 250 350 700 1,000 1,260 2,585 4,164 5,621 7,015 8,137 8,851
Switzerland 150 300 650 1,000 1,200 1,829 2,664 3,864 4,694 6,441 7,130
United Kingdom 1,500 2,000 3,942 6,170 8,565 21,226 31,393 45,649 50,363 56,223 59,237
12 Countries Total 18,000 24,700 48,192 62,580 68,796 114,419 162,388 227,957 256,616 301,037 322,507
Portugal 800 900 1,000 1,100 2,000 3,297 4,353 6,004 8,512 8,634 9,968
Spain 4,500 4,000 6,800 8,240 8,770 12,203 16,201 20,263 27,868 34,810 39,371
Other 2,100 1,113 1,276 1,858 1,894 2,969 4,590 6,783 12,064 13,909 16,553
Total Western Europe 25,550 30,413 57,268 73,778 81,460 132,888 187,532 261,007 305,060 358,390 388,399
Eastern Europe 7,900 9,000 18,000 18,000 18,800 36,415 52,182 79,604 87,289 110,490 121,006
Former USSR 18,000 18,000 18,000 20,700 26,550 54,765 88,672 156,192 180,050 249,748 290,866
United States 680 1,300 2,000 1,500 1,000 9,981 40,241 97,606 152,271 212,909 270,561
Other Western Offshoots 490 660 800 800 750 1,249 5,892 13,795 23,823 39,036 52,859
Total Western Offshoots 1,170 1,960 2,800 2,300 1,750 11,230 46,133 111,401 176,094 250,945 323,420
Mexico 10,000 10,000 10,000 2,500 4,500 6,587 9,219 14,970 28,485 57,643 98,553
Other Latin America 10,000 20,000 30,000 6,100 7,550 14,633 30,754 65,545 137,352 250,807 409,070
Total Latin America 20,000 30,000 40,000 8,600 12,050 21,220 39,973 80,515 165,837 308,450 507,623
Japan 3,000 7,500 15,400 18,500 27,000 31,000 34,437 51,672 83,563 108,660 126,469
China 50,000 59,000 103,000 160,000 138,000 381,000 358,000 437,140 546,815 881,940 1,242,700
India 60,000 75,000 110,000 135,000 165,000 209,000 253,000 303,700 359,000 580,000 975,000
Other Asia 66,000 41,400 55,400 65,000 71,800 89,366 119,619 185,092 392,481 677,214 1,172,243
Total Asia 179,000 175,400 268,400 360,000 374,800 679,366 730,619 925,932 1,298,296 2,139,154 3,389,943
Africa 35,000 33,000 46,000 55,000 61,000 74,208 90,466 124,697 228,342 387,645 759,954
World 300,000 268,273 437,818 555,828 603,410 1,041,092 1,270,014 1,791,020 2,524,531 3,913,482 5,907,680

References

[edit]
  1. ^ range of estimates for average growth rates over the preceding century according to the data cited under #Historical population; The average growth rate for the 14th century is low as a consequence of the Black Death.
  2. ^ Kurt, A. (1995). The Ancient Near East, c. 3000–330 BCE. Vol. 2. London: Routledge. p. 695.
  3. ^ Thomlinson (1975): "one to ten million".
  4. ^ Pala, M; Olivieri, A; Achilli, A; Accetturo, M; Metspalu, E; Reidla, M; Tamm, E; Karmin, M; Reisberg, T; Hooshiar Kashani, B; Perego, UA; Carossa, V; Gandini, F; Pereira, JB; Soares, P; Angerhofer, N; Rychkov, S; Al-Zahery, N; Carelli, V; Sanati, MH; Houshmand, M; Hatina, J; Macaulay, V; Pereira, L; Woodward, SR; Davies, W; Gamble, C; Baird, D; Semino, O; Villems, R; Torroni, A; Richards, MB (2012). "Mitochondrial DNA signals of late glacial recolonization of Europe from near eastern refugia". Am. J. Hum. Genet. 90 (5): 915–24. doi:10.1016/j.ajhg.2012.04.003. PMC 3376494. PMID 22560092.
  5. ^ Stanley H. Ambrose (1998). "Late Pleistocene human population bottlenecks, volcanic winter, and differentiation of modern humans". Journal of Human Evolution. 34 (6): 623–651. doi:10.1006/jhev.1998.0219. PMID 9650103. S2CID 33122717. Ambrose, Stanley H. (2005). "Volcanic Winter, and Differentiation of Modern Humans". Bradshaw Foundation. Retrieved 2006-04-08.
  6. ^ Robock, A., C.M. Ammann, L. Oman, D. Shindell, S. Levis, and G. Stenchikov (2009). "Did the Toba volcanic eruption of ~74k BP produce widespread glaciation?". Journal of Geophysical Research. 114 (D10): D10107. Bibcode:2009JGRD..11410107R. doi:10.1029/2008JD011652. S2CID 37420327.{{cite journal}}: CS1 maint: multiple names: authors list (link)
  7. ^ Per Sjödin, Agnès E Sjöstrand, Mattias Jakobsson and Michael G B Blum, "Resequencing data provide no evidence for a human bottleneck in Africa during the penultimate glacial period" Mol Biol Evol (2012) DOI: 10.1093/molbev/mss061. "A small human effective population size, on the order of 10,000 individuals, which is smaller than the effective population size of most great apes, has been interpreted as a result of a very long history, starting ~ 2 mya, of small population size, coined as the long-necked bottle model (Harpending et al. 1998; Hawks et al. 2000). Our findings are consistent with this hypothesis, but, depending on the mutation rate, we find either an effective population size of NA = 12,000 (95% C.I. = 9,000–15,500 when averaging over all three demographic models) using the mutation rate calibrated with the human-chimp divergence or an effective population size of NA = 32,500 individuals (95% C.I. = 27,500–34,500) using the mutation rate given by whole-genome trio analysis (The 1000 Genomes Project Consortium 2010) (supplementary figure 4 and table 6, Supplementary Material online). Not surprisingly, the estimated effective mutation rates θ = 4NAμ are comparable for the two mutation rates we considered, and are equal to 1.4 × 10−3/bp/generation (95% C.I. = (1.1–1.7) × 10−3). Relating the estimated effective population size to the census population size during the Pleistocene is a difficult task because there are many factors affecting the effective population size (Charlesworth 2009). Nevertheless, based on published estimates of the ratio between effective and census population size, a comprehensive value on the order of 10% has been found by Frankham (1995). This 10% rule roughly predicts that 120,000−325,[0]00 individuals (depending on the assumed mutation rate)"
  8. ^ Haub (1995): "at some time back in the 1970s, some now-forgotten writer made the statement that 75 percent of the people who had ever been born were alive at that moment." Haub (1995) is the basis of a 2007 article in Scientific American, "Fact or Fiction". Scientificamerican.com.
  9. ^ Stephenson, Wesley (4 Feb 2012). "Do the dead outnumber the living?". BBC News.
  10. ^ a b Curtin, Ciara (September 2007). "Do living people outnumber the dead?". Scientific American. 297 (3): 126. Bibcode:2007SciAm.297c.126C. doi:10.1038/scientificamerican0907-126. PMID 17784634.
  11. ^ Kapitza, 'The phenomenological theory of world population growth', Physics-Uspekhi 39(1) 57–71 (1996) cites estimates ranging between 80 and 150 billion (Sergei P Kapitza, 'The phenomenological theory of world population growth', Physics-Uspekhi 39(1) 57–71, 1996), citing K. M. Weiss, Human Biology 56637, 1984, and N. Keyfitz, Applied Mathematical Demography, New York: Wiley, 1977). Haub (1995) cited 105 billion, updated to 107 billion as of 2011 in Haub, Carl (October 2011). "How Many People Have Ever Lived on Earth?". Population Reference Bureau. Archived from the original on April 24, 2013. Retrieved April 29, 2013.
  12. ^ Haub (1995): "Clearly, the period 8000 B.C. to 1 A.D. is key to the magnitude of our number, but, unfortunately, little is known about that era. ... of course, pushing the date of humanity's arrival on the planet before 50,000 B.C. would also raise the number, although perhaps not by terribly much."
  13. ^ Haub (1995): "Life expectancy at birth probably averaged only about 10 years for most of human history. Estimates of average life expectancy in Iron Age France have been put at only 10 or 12 years. Under these conditions, the birth rate would have to be about 80 per 1,000 people just for the species to survive. ... Our birth rate assumption will greatly affect the estimate of the number of persons ever born. Infant mortality in the human race's earliest days is thought to have been very high—perhaps 500 infant deaths per 1,000 births, or even higher. ... Birth rates were set at 80 per 1,000 per year through 1 A.D. and at 60 per 1,000 from 2 A.D. to 1750. Rates then declined to the low 30s by the modern period. (For a brief bibliography of sources consulted in the course of this alchemy, see [Colin McEvedy and Richard Jones 1978])." "So, our estimate here is that about 5.5 percent of all people ever born are alive today." Using the UN estimates for birth rates ("UNdata: Crude birth rate". United Nations. 25 August 2011.) and world population (U.S. Census Bureau, International Data Base), there were an estimated 3.0 billion births during 1995–2016, so that based on the estimate by Haub (1995), the figures for 2017 would be "about 108 billion births" and "about 7 percent of all people ever born are alive today."
  14. ^ a b Haub (1995): "The average annual rate of growth was actually lower from 1 A.D. to 1650 than the rate suggested above for the 8000 B.C. to 1 A.D. period. One reason for this abnormally slow growth was the Black Plague. This dreaded scourge was not limited to 14th century Europe. The epidemic may have begun about 542 A.D. in Western Asia, spreading from there. It is believed that half the Byzantine Empire was destroyed in the 6th century, a total of 100 million deaths."
  15. ^ a b Data from Population Reference Bureau Archived 2008-05-20 at the Wayback Machine.
    2016 estimate: (a) "2016 World Population Data Sheet" Archived 2017-08-28 at the Wayback Machine
    2015 estimate: (b) Toshiko Kaneda, 2015, "2015 World Population Data Sheet" Archived 2018-02-19 at the Wayback Machine.
    2014 estimate: (c) Carl Haub, 2014, "2014 World Population Data Sheet" Archived 2018-02-18 at the Wayback Machine.
    2013 estimate: (d) Carl Haub, 2013, "2013 World Population Data Sheet" Archived 2015-02-26 at the Wayback Machine.
    2012 estimate: (e) Carl Haub, 2012, "2012 World Population Data Sheet" Archived 2014-05-21 at the Wayback Machine.
    2011 estimate: (f) Carl Haub, 2011, "2011 World Population Data Sheet" Archived 2017-11-18 at the Wayback Machine.
    2010 estimate: (g) Carl Haub, 2010, "2010 World Population Data Sheet" Archived 2018-01-09 at the Wayback Machine.
    2009 estimate: (h) Carl Haub, 2009, "2009 World Population Data Sheet" Archived 2010-04-22 at the Wayback Machine.
    2008 estimate: (i) Carl Haub, 2008, "2008 World Population Data Sheet" Archived 2017-12-19 at the Wayback Machine.
    2007 estimate: (j) Carl Haub, 2007, "2007 World Population Data Sheet" Archived 2011-02-24 at the Wayback Machine.
    2006 estimate: (k) Carl Haub, 2006, "2006 World Population Data Sheet" Archived 2010-12-22 at the Wayback Machine.
    2005 estimate: (l) Carl Haub, 2005, "2005 World Population Data Sheet" Archived 2011-04-14 at the Wayback Machine.
    2004 estimate: (m) Carl Haub, 2004, "2004 World Population Data Sheet" Archived 2017-03-29 at the Wayback Machine.
    2003 estimate: (n) Carl Haub, 2003, "2003 World Population Data Sheet" Archived 2019-08-19 at the Wayback Machine.
    2002 estimate: (o) Carl Haub, 2002, "2002 World Population Data Sheet" Archived 2017-12-09 at the Wayback Machine.
    2001 estimate: (p) Carl Haub, 2001, "2001 World Population Data Sheet".
    2000 estimate: (q) 2000, "9 Billion World Population by 2050" Archived 2018-02-01 at the Wayback Machine.
    1997 estimate: (r) 1997, "Studying Populations".
    Estimates for 1995 and prior: (s) Carl Haub, 1995, Population Today, Vol. 23 (no. 2), pp. 5–6.
  16. ^ a b Data from United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division.
    1950–2100 estimates (only medium variants shown): (a) World Population Prospects: The 2008 Revision. Archived 2011-04-29 at the Wayback Machine
    Estimates prior to 1950: (b) "The World at Six Billion", 1999.
    Estimates from 1950 to 2100: (c) "Population of the entire world, yearly, 1950 - 2100", 2013. Archived November 19, 2016, at the Wayback Machine
    2014: (d) http://esa.un.org/unpd/wup/Highlights/WUP2014-Highlights.pdf "2014 World Urbanization Prospects", 2014.]
    2015: (e) http://esa.un.org/unpd/wpp/Publications/Files/Key_Findings_WPP_2015.pdf"2015 World Urbanization Prospects", 2015.] Archived March 20, 2014, at the Wayback Machine
  17. ^ a b Angus Maddison, 2003, The World Economy: Historical Statistics, Vol. 2, OECD, Paris Archived May 13, 2008, at the Wayback Machine ISBN 92-64-10412-7.
    "Statistical Appendix" (2008, ggdc.net) "The historical data were originally developed in three books: Monitoring the World Economy 1820-1992, OECD, Paris 1995; The World Economy: A Millennial Perspective, OECD Development Centre, Paris 2001; The World Economy: Historical Statistics, OECD Development Centre, Paris 2003. All these contain detailed source notes. Figures for 1820 onwards are annual, wherever possible. For earlier years, benchmark figures are shown for 1 AD, 1000 AD, 1500, 1600 and 1700." "OECD countries GDP revised and updated 1991-2003 from National Accounts for OECD Countries, vol. I, 2006. Norway 1820-1990 GDP from Ola Grytten (2004), "The Gross Domestic Product for Norway, 1830-2003" in Eitrheim, Klovland and Qvigstad (eds), Historical Monetary Statistics for Norway, 1819-2003, Norges Bank, Oslo. Latin American GDP 2000-2003 revised and updated from ECLAC, Statistical Yearbook 2004 and preliminary version of the 2005 Yearbook supplied by Andre Hofman. For Chile, GDP 1820-2003 from Rolf Lűders (1998), "The Comparative Economic Performance of Chile 1810-1995", Estudios de Economia, vol. 25, no. 2, with revised population estimates from Diaz, J., R. Lűders, and G. Wagner (2005) Chili 1810-2000: la Republica en Cifras, mimeo, Instituto de Economia, Universidad Católica de Chile. For Peru, GDP 1896-1990 and population 1896-1949 from Bruno Seminario and Arlette Beltran, Crecimiento Economico en el Peru 1896-1995, Universidad del Pacifico, 1998. " "For Asia there are amendments to the GDP estimates for South and North Korea, 1911-74, to correct an error in Maddison (2003). Estimates for the Philippines, 1902-1940 were amended in line with Richard Hooley (2005), 'American Economic Policy in the Philippines, 1902-1940', Journal of Asian Economics, 16. 1820 estimates were amended for Hong Kong, the Philippines, Singapore, Sri Lanka, Taiwan and Thailand." "Asian countries GDP revised and updated 1998-2003 from AsianOutlook, April 2005. Population estimates for all countries except China and Indonesia revised and updated 1950-2008 and 2030 from International Data Base, International Programs Center, Population Division, US Bureau of the Census, April 2005 version. China's population 1990-2003 from China Statistical Yearbook 2005, China Statistics Press, Beijing. Indonesian population 1950-2003 kindly supplied by Pierre van der Eng. The figures now include three countries previously omitted: Cook Islands, Nauru and Tuvalu."
  18. ^ Klein Goldewijk, K., A. Beusen, M. de Vos and G. van Drecht (2011). The HYDE 3.1 spatially explicit database of human induced land use change over the past 12,000 years, Global Ecology and Biogeography20(1): 73-86. doi:10.1111/j.1466-8238.2010.00587.x (pbl.nl Archived 2021-04-23 at the Wayback Machine). HYDE (History Database of the Global Environment), 2010. HYDE 3.1 gives estimates for 5000 BC, 1000 BC and "AD 0". HYDE estimates are higher than those by Colin McEvedy (1978) but lower than those by Massimo Livi Bacci (1989, 2012). (graphs (itbulk.org)).
  19. ^ a b Slightly updated data from original paper in French: (a) Jean-Noël Biraben, 1980, "An Essay Concerning Mankind's Evolution", Population, Selected Papers, Vol. 4, pp. 1–13. Original paper in French: (b) Jean-Noël Biraben, 1979, "Essai sur l'évolution du nombre des hommes", Population, Vol. 34 (no. 1), pp. 13–25.
  20. ^ a b Colin McEvedy and Richard Jones, 1978, Atlas of World Population History, Facts on File, New York, ISBN 0-7139-1031-3.
  21. ^ a b Ralph Thomlinson, 1975, Demographic Problems: Controversy over population control, 2nd Ed., Dickenson Publishing Company, Ecino, CA, ISBN 0-8221-0166-1.
  22. ^ a b John D. Durand, 1974, "Historical Estimates of World Population: An Evaluation", University of Pennsylvania, Population Center, Analytical and Technical Reports, Number 10.
  23. ^ a b Colin Clark, 1967, Population Growth and Land Use, St. Martin's Press, New York, ISBN 0-333-01126-0.
  24. ^ a b c d e f g h i j k Data from History Database of the Global Environment. Archived 2018-02-27 at the Wayback Machine K. Klein Goldewijk, A. Beusen and P. Janssen, "HYDE 3.1: Long-term dynamic modeling of global population and built-up area in a spatially explicit way", from table on pg. 2, Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency (MNP), Bilthoven, The Netherlands.
  25. ^ Haub (1995): "By 1 A.D., the world may have held about 300 million people. One estimate of the population of the Roman Empire, from Spain to Asia Minor, in 14 A.D. is 45 million. However, other historians set the figure twice as high, suggesting how imprecise population estimates of early historical periods can be."
  26. ^ "The present figures are a revision and update of those presented on this website in 2003. The most significant changes are in the entries for the year 1, where gaps in previous tables have been filled with the new estimates for the Roman Empire in Maddison (2007). The estimates are in fact for 14 AD"
  27. ^ The estimates are in fact for 14 AD"
  28. ^ Data from U.S. Census Bureau, International Data Base Retrieved on 28 Oct, 2017
  29. ^ Angus Maddison, The World Economy: Historical Statistics, Statistical Appendix (2007, ggdc.net). Estimates cited are for the beginning of the 1st millennium ("year 0"), the beginning of the 2nd millennium ("year 1000"), and for the beginning each century since the 16th (years 1820 and 1913 are given for the 19th and 20th century, respectively, as Maddison presents detailed estimates for these years), and a projection for the year 2030.
  30. ^ includes Central Asia
    (listed under "former USSR")
  31. ^ a b Maddison (27 July 2016). "Growth of World Population, GDP and GDP Per Capita before 1820" (PDF).

Further reading

[edit]
[edit]
Retrieved from "https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Estimates_of_historical_world_population&oldid=1249579867"